2000 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECASTS Federal Aviation Administration’s Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) May 2000 ABOUT THE ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR FOR COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION (AST) AND THE COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION ADVISORY COMMITTEE (COMSTAC) The Federal Aviation Administration’s senior executives from the U.S. commercial Associate Administrator for Commercial Space space transportation and satellite industries, Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates U.S. space-related state government officials, and commercial space launch activity as authorized other space professionals. by Executive Order 12465, Commercial Expendable Launch Vehicle Activities, and the The primary goals of COMSTAC are to: Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984, as amended. AST’s mission is to license and • Evaluate economic, technological and regulate commercial launch operations to ensure institutional issues relating to the U.S. public health and safety and the safety of commercial space transportation industry property, and to protect national security and foreign policy interests of the United States • Provide a forum for the discussion of issues during commercial launch operations. The involving the relationship between industry Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 and the and government requirements 1996 National Space Policy also direct the Federal Aviation Administration to encourage, • Make recommendations to the Administrator facilitate, and promote commercial launches. on issues and approaches for Federal policies and programs regarding the industry. The Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) provides Additional information concerning AST and information, advice, and recommendations to the COMSTAC can be found on AST’s web site, at Administrator of the Federal Aviation http://ast.faa.gov. Administration within the Department of Transportation (DOT) on matters relating to the U.S. commercial space transportation industry. Established in 1985, COMSTAC is made up of Cover Photo Credits (clockwise from top left): Alcatel Space (1999). Artist’s conception of one of the PhotoDisc, Inc. (1999). Ground antennae for satellite WorldSpace system satellites, which will provide digital audio communications signals. broadcasting services via satellite. Sea Launch (1999). Image is of the Zenit 3SL launch on October 9, Boeing Corporation (1999). Image is of the Delta 2 7420 launch 1999, from the Odyssey Sea Launch Platform. It successfully on July 10, 1999, from the Cape Canaveral Air Station. It deployed the DirecTV 1R satellite. successfully orbited four Globalstar communications satellites. International Launch Services (2000). Image is of the Atlas 2AS Orbital Sciences (1998). Image is of the OrbView-2 satellite prior launch on February 3, 2000, from the Cape Canaveral Air Station. to launch. It successfully deployed the HISPASAT 1C communications satellite. Alcatel Space (1999). An engineer working on one of the Globalstar mobile telephony satellites. 2000 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECASTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................... iii Introduction............................................................................................................. 1 Combined Payload and Launch Projections............................................................ 2 COMSTAC 2000 Commercial Geostationary Launch Demand Model ........... GSO FAA 2000 Commercial Space Transportation Projections.............................NGSO For Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) Federal Aviation Administration and the PAGE i Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2000 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECASTS LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Commercial Space Transportation Payload and Launch Projections.............2 Figure 2: GSO Satellite and Launch Demand .............................................................3 Figure 3: NGSO Satellite and Launch Demand ..........................................................3 Figure 4: Combined GSO and NGSO Launch Projections.........................................4 Figure 5: Historical Commercial Space Transportation Projections .............................4 PAGE ii Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2000 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECASTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Federal Aviation Administration’s Together, the COMSTAC and FAA forecasts Associate Administrator for Commercial Space project that an average of 41.4 commercial space Transportation (FAA/AST) and the Commercial launches worldwide will occur annually through Space Transportation Advisory Committee 2010. This is an increase of 15 percent from the (COMSTAC) have prepared projections of 36 commercial launches conducted worldwide in global demand for commercial space launch 1999. However, the forecast is down close to 20 services for the period 2000 to 2010. The 2000 percent from last year, which projected an Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts average of 51 launches per year. This downturn combines: in expectations is the result of difficulties encountered by NGSO systems over the last year, • The COMSTAC 2000 Commercial Geosta- such as the failure of Iridium and bankruptcy of tionary Launch Demand Model, which ICO. projects demand for commercial satellites that operate in geosynchronous orbit (GSO) Specifically, the forecasts project that on and the resulting launch demand to average the following type and number of geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO); and launches will be conducted each year: • The FAA’s 2000 Commercial Space • 23.5 launches of medium-to-heavy launch Transportation Projections For Non- vehicles to GSO Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO), which projects commercial launch demand for all • 7.5 launches of medium-to-heavy launch space systems in non-geosynchronous orbits, vehicles to LEO, or NGSO orbits such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), and elliptical orbits (ELI). • 10.4 launches of small vehicles to LEO. Federal Aviation Administration and the PAGE iii Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2000 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECASTS INTRODUCTION The Federal Aviation Administration’s Associate About the COMSTAC 2000 Commercial Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation Geostationary Launch Demand Model (FAA/AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) At the request of the Federal Aviation have prepared projections of global demand for Administration, COMSTAC compiles the commercial space launch services for the period 2000 Commercial Geostationary Launch Demand to 2010. The jointly published 2000 Commercial Model, forecasting worldwide demand for Space Transportation Forecasts includes: commercial launches of spacecraft which operate in geosynchronous orbit. First compiled in 1993, the · The COMSTAC 2000 Commercial model is updated annually and is prepared using plans Geostationary Launch Demand Model, which and projections supplied by U.S. and international projects demand for commercial satellites that commercial satellite and launch companies. Projected operate in geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and the payload and launch demand is limited to those resulting launch demand to geosynchronous spacecraft and launches that are open to transfer orbit (GTO); and internationally competed launch services procurements. Since 1998, the model has also · The FAA’s 2000 Commercial Space included a projection of launch vehicle demand, which Transportation Projections For Non- is derived from the payload demand due to dual Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO), which projects manifesting of satellites on some launch vehicles. commercial launch demand for all space systems in non-geosynchronous orbits (NGSO), such as About the FAA NGSO Commercial Space low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit Transportation Projections (MEO), and elliptical orbits (ELI). Since 1994, the FAA has compiled an assessment Growth of Commercial Space Transportation of demand for commercial launch services to non- geosynchronous orbits, i.e. those not covered by the Commercial launch activity has steadily increased COMSTAC GSO forecast. The NGSO forecast is since the early 1980s, and now represents over 40 based on an assessment of multi-satellite percent of worldwide launches conducted annually, communications systems being developed to service ending the domination of space by government the low data rate communications, telephony, and activities. Until the last couple of years, commercial broadband data markets, as well as remote sensing spacecraft were almost exclusively and other spacecraft using commercial launch telecommunications satellites located in services. geosynchronous orbit. In 1997, however, full-scale deployment began of the first of several The NGSO Commercial Market Projections communications constellations consisting of multiple develops two scenarios for deployment of NGSO spacecraft in low Earth orbit. While there were 18 satellite systems—a “baseline” scenario, considered launches to GSO in 1999, there were an additional 18 the most likely to occur, and a “robust market” launches to LEO to deploy global satellite scenario, considered likely to occur if demand for communications systems, remote sensing spacecraft, LEO satellite services is sufficiently greater. For and scientific