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Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com The Evolving Launch Vehicle Market Supply and the Effect on Future NASA Missions Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint International Conference & Workshop June 12-15, New Orleans, LA Bob Bitten, Debra Emmons, Claude Freaner 1 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Abstract • The upcoming retirement of the Delta II family of launch vehicles leaves a performance gap between small expendable launch vehicles, such as the Pegasus and Taurus, and large vehicles, such as the Delta IV and Atlas V families • This performance gap may lead to a variety of progressions including – large satellites that utilize the full capability of the larger launch vehicles, – medium size satellites that would require dual manifesting on the larger vehicles or – smaller satellites missions that would require a large number of smaller launch vehicles • This paper offers some comparative costs of co-manifesting single- instrument missions on a Delta IV/Atlas V, versus placing several instruments on a larger bus and using a Delta IV/Atlas V, as well as considering smaller, single instrument missions launched on a Minotaur or Taurus • This paper presents the results of a parametric study investigating the cost- effectiveness of different alternatives and their effect on future NASA missions that fall into the Small Explorer (SMEX), Medium Explorer (MIDEX), Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP), Discovery, Mars Scout and New Frontiers category of mission classes 2 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Overview • NASA Launch Vehicle Background – NASA Launch Vehicle Fleet – Launch Vehicle Performance Gap – Mission Launch Histories – Current Launch Vehicles Available from Announcements of Opportunity (AO) • Problems Presented by LV Gap – Effect on Earth Orbiting Missions – Effect on Planetary Missions • Considerations for Future AOs • Emerging Launch Vehicles • Summary 3 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com NASA Launch Vehicles* • Small Expendable Launch Vehicles (SELV) – Pegasus SELV MELV LELV Manned – Taurus – Athena II (Retired) • Medium Expendable Launch Vehicles (MELV) – Titan II (Retired) – Atlas II (Retired) – Delta II • Large Expendable Launch Vehicles (LELV) – Titan IV (retired) – Atlas V – Delta IV • Manned Reusable – Space Shuttle NASANASA launchlaunch vehiclevehicle familiesfamilies provideprovide aa varietyvariety ofof performanceperformance andand costcost choiceschoices *Note: As taken from “Major NASA ELV Launches, Volume 2 (1990 to Present)”, IS-2006-02-007-KSC 4 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Progression of Atlas & Delta Launch Vehicle Families Into Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELV)* Progression of Atlas II to Atlas V Evolved EELV to the United Launch Alliance Progression of (ULA) Delta II to Delta IV EELV DeltaDelta IIII RetirementRetirement isis followingfollowing similarsimilar pathpath asas RetirementRetirement ofof AtlasAtlas IIII *Note: As taken from “EELV: The Next Stage of Space Launch”, Randy Kendall, The Aerospace Corporation, Crosslink Magazine, Winter 2004, http://www.aero.org/publications/crosslink/winter2004/07.html 5 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Performance Gap Left by Delta II Retirement* Launch Vehicle Cost vs. Performance $180 Atlas V (521) $160 Atlas V (501) Delta IV (4450-14) $140 Atlas V (401) Delta IV (4040-12) $120 $100 Delta II (2920-10) $80 Delta II (2420-10) Taurus (3110) Performance gap left by eliminating Delta II $60 Launch Vehicle Cost (FY07$M) Cost Vehicle Launch $40 $20 $- - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 Peformance (kg) to 700 km sun-synchronous orbit GapGap LeftLeft byby DeltaDelta IIII RetirementRetirement isis LargeLarge inin BothBoth CostCost ($65M)($65M) && CapabilityCapability (5,000(5,000 kg)kg) *Note: Cost taken from DISCOVERY 12 AO ELV Launch Services Program Information Summary 01/06/2006, and MARS SCOUT AO ELV Launch Services Program Information Summary 01/25/2007. Launch vehicle performance from http://elvperf.ksc.nasa.gov. 6 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Historical NASA Missions Launched 1990-2006* 10,000 Cassini TERRA TDRS-J (-10) EUVE TDRS-I (-9) AQUA-EOS PM GOES-N (GOES-13) TDRS-H (-8) Gravity Probe B Mars Observer Aura GOES-L (GOES-11) Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter GOES-M (GOES-12) Landsat 7 SOHO XTE Swift NOAA-M (NOAA-17) Polar FUSE Wind MER-A Spirit MESSENGER Mars Global Surveyor 1,000 Deep Impact MER-B Opportunity Mars Pathfinder CONTOUR ICESAT/CHIPSAT Spitzer (SIRTF) QuikSCAT NEAR MAP 2001 Mars Odyssey ACE STEREO-B Genesis Cloudsat STEREO-A Mars Climate Orbiter CALIPSO Mars Polar Lander EO-1/SAC-C Deep Space 1 Jason-1/TIMED New Horizons IMAGE SWAS HESSI TOMS-EP Stardust GALEX Lunar Prospector 3% 1% SORCE WIRE 6% TRACE 23% SAC-B/HETE FAST QuikTOMS 4% Pegasus SAMPEX Taurus SNOE HETE-II Satellite Wet Mass (kg) Mass Wet Satellite TERRIERS ACRIMSAT 100 Atlas II SeaStar/SeaWiFS Delta II Delta IIH 4% Titan II/III/IV Atlas V ST-5a 10% Delta IV 49% 10 0123456789Pegasus Taurus Atlas II Delta II Delta IIH Titan II/III/IV Atlas V Delta IV DeltaDelta IIII hashas beenbeen PredominantPredominant LaunchLaunch VehicleVehicle withwith HalfHalf ofof AllAll NASANASA LaunchesLaunches *Note: As taken from “Major NASA ELV Launches, Volume 2 (1990 to Present)”, IS-2006-02-007-KSC 7 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Current Launch Vehicles Available for Missions Competed through Announcements of Opportunity (AO) Mission Range of Cost Cap Available Launch % LV Mission* (FY07$M) Vehicles Cost AO Date Directed Missions Pegasus 23% Galileo/Cassini SMEX $138 2003 $ Taurus 35% EOS-Terra/Aqua Pegasus 17% ESSP $193 Taurus 28% 2001 Shared Delta 2 28% Missions New Frontiers Taurus 23% Most Discovery MIDEX $214 Delta II 2420 33% 2002 Affected } Delta II 2925H 42% Mars Scout by Taurus 15% MIDEX Delta II 2920-10 22% Delta II { ESSP Discovery $439 2006 Atlas V (401) or Retirement 31% Delta IV 4040-12 Delta II 2925 19% SMEX Mars Scout $490 Atlas V (521) or 2006 33% Delta IV 4450-14 Delta II 2925 9% SELV Delta II EELV New Frontiers $803 2003 Delta IV Heavy 28% Migration of Missions to SELV or EELV Class MostMost AffectedAffected MissionsMissions willwill bebe ESSP,ESSP, MIDEX,MIDEX, DiscoveryDiscovery && MarsMars Scout;Scout; MissionsMissions willwill MigrateMigrate toto SmallerSmaller LVs,LVs, LargerLarger LVsLVs or or DualDual ManifestingManifesting * SMEX = Small Explorer, ESSP = Earth System Science Pathfinder, MIDEX = Medium Explorer Launch vehicle cost information taken from NASA provided public data for AOs 8 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Integrated Cost and Schedule Analysis Tool (ICSAT) Used for Estimating Cost & Schedule of Example Missions Cost Analysis Size Size/ Choose Choose MO&DA Add PM/SE Science choose Launch and GDS Wrap Instruments Spacecraft Vehicle Approach Factor Cost Risk Methodology Schedule Analysis Choose Estimate Identify Spread Final Schedule Development Major Cost Per Budget Analogies Schedule Milestones Fiscal Year Profile Integrated ICSATICSAT ProvidesProvides aa FirstFirst OrderOrder CostCost andand ScheduleSchedule (i.e.(i.e. Budgeting)Budgeting) Cost/Schedule EstimateEstimate BasedBased onon ScienceScience InstrumentInstrument RequirementsRequirements Output 9 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Case 1 Definition: Two Small Spacecraft on Two Separate SELVs Spacecraft 1 SELV CloudSat-like Instrument* Maximum Performance to Sun-synch, 700 km = 955 kg Instrument Mass (kg) Power (W) CPR 260 270 + Satellite Mass (kg) + Total 260 270 Instrument 260 Spacecraft 454 Propellant 134 Total 848 Image Courtesy of Orbital Sciences Corporation Spacecraft 2 SELV Maximum Performance Calipso-like Instruments* to Sun-synch, 700 km = 955 kg Instrument Mass (kg) Power (W) CALOP 156 207 Satellite Mass (kg) + IIR 21 27 + Instruments 180 WFC 2.6 8 Spacecraft 326 Total 179.6 242 Propellant 94 Total 600 Image Courtesy of Orbital Sciences Corporation * Source: Earth Science 2006 Reference Handbook 10 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference and Workshop - www.iceaaonline.com Case 2 Definition: Two Small Spacecraft Co-Manifested on Single EELV Spacecraft 1 Dual Payload Attachment CloudSat-like Instrument* Fitting (DPAF) Mass = 325 kg Instrument Mass (kg) Power (W) CPR 260 270 + Satellite Mass (kg) Total 260 270 Instrument 260 Spacecraft 454 Propellant 134 Total 848 Illustration reprinted courtesy of NASA + EELV Maximum Performance Spacecraft 2 to Sun-synch, 700 km Calipso-like Instruments* = 6015 kg Instrument Mass (kg) Power (W) CALOP 156 207 Satellite Mass (kg) IIR 21 27 + Instruments 180 WFC 2.6 8 Spacecraft 326 Total 179.6 242 Propellant 94 Total 600 Photograph reprinted courtesy of the US Air Force * Source: Earth Science 2006 Reference Handbook Picture of Atlas V taken from http://www.aero.org/publications/crosslink/winter2004/07.html 11 Presented at the 2007 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual International Conference
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