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P6.31 Long-Term Total Solar Irradiance (Tsi) Variability Trends: 1984-2004

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P6.31 Long-Term Total Solar Irradiance (Tsi) Variability Trends: 1984-2004 P6.31 LONG-TERM TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (TSI) VARIABILITY TRENDS: 1984-2004 Robert Benjamin Lee III∗ NASA Langley Research Center, Atmospheric Sciences, Hampton, Virginia Robert S. Wilson and Susan Thomas Science Application International Corporation (SAIC), Hampton, Virginia ABSTRACT additional long-term TSI variability component, 0.05 %, with a period longer than a decade. The incoming total solar irradiance (TSI), Analyses of the ERBS/ERBE data set do not typically referred to as the “solar constant,” is support the Wilson and Mordvinor analyses being studied to identify long-term TSI changes, approach because it used the Nimbus-7 data which may trigger global climate changes. The set which exhibited a significant ACR response TSI is normalized to the mean earth-sun shift of 0.7 Wm-2 (Lee et al,, 1995; Chapman et distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets al., 1996). confirmed the existence of 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component with a period of 10 years. In our current paper, analyses of the 1984- The component varied directly with solar 2004, ERBS/ERBE measurements, along with magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year the other spacecraft measurements, are sunspot cycles. The 0.1 % TSI variability presented as well as the shortcoming of the component is clearly present in the spacecraft ACRIM study. Long-term, incoming total solar data sets from the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were Budget Experiment (ERBE) active cavity validated using proxy TSI values, derived from radiometer (ACR) solar monitor; 1978-1993, indices of solar magnetic activity. Typically, Nimbus-7 HF; 1980-1989, Solar Maximum three overlapping spacecraft data sets were Mission [SMM] ACRIM; 1991-2004, Upper used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) ACRIM; During the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1996-2003, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data (SOHO)/VIRGO, Space Science (ATLAS), sets were not available to validated TSI trends. 2000-2004, ACRIMSAT; and 2003-2004 SOlar The TSI varies with indices of solar magnetic Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot active cavity radiometer (ACR) missions. From cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from October 1984, through March 2004, the least squares analyses of the measured TSI ERBS/ERBE solar monitor was used to produce variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar the longest continuous data set of total solar fluxes, and with limb-darkened sunspot fluxes. irradiance (TSI) variability measurements. The The resulting proxy TSI values were compared solar monitor is located on Shuttle Atmospheric to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI Laboratory for Applications and the NASA Earth variability to detect ACR instrument Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS). Maximum degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI TSI values occurred during the 1989-1991, and variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and 1998-2002, time frames; while minimum [quiet TSI proxies are presented primarily for the sun] TSI levels occurred during 1986 and 1996. 1984-2004, ERBS/ERBE ACR solar monitor Recent ERBS measurements indicate that the data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft TSI is decreasing to forecasted, minimum levels measurement data sets suggest the existence by 2006. Using the discontinuous non- of another TSI variability component with an operational Nimbus-7, SMM ACRIM, and UARS amplitude greater than or equal to 0.4 Wm-2 ACRIM mission TSI data sets, Wilson and (0.03%) with a cycle of 20 years or more. Mordvinor (2003) suggested the existence of an ∗ Corresponding author address: Robert B. lee III, NASA Langley Research Center, MS 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, e-mail: [email protected]. 1. INTRODUCTION can be estimated from 10.7-cm solar radio flux (F10). Total solar irradiance (TSI), normalized to the mean earth/sun distance, is the primary We derived an empirical fit to the National power source, which drives our climate system. Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) In our earlier study (Lee et al., 2000), we Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) solar outlined TSI variability derived from 1969-1999, monitor (Lee et al., 1987) TSI measurements spacecraft studies in order to identify long-term (Lee et al., 1995). ERBS TSI measurements for TSI variability. The study focused upon the 1985-1989 time frame were used to correlating irradiance variability with varying calibrate the irradiance empirical fit. The solar magnetic activity associated with the 11- resulting derived empirical fit for the total solar year sunspot cycle. In addition, the study irradiance (I) is identified possible radiometer response shifts or drifts, which could be misinterpreted as natural IERBS = 1362.9 – [705.3 x (PSI)] TSI variability. We have extended our study to + [0.02953 x 1022 x (F10)] include the 2000-2004, Active Cavity –[0.00005x1044 x (F10) 2] (1) Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Satellite (AcrimSat) (Wilson and Mordvinov, 2003) and where F10 is 10.7-cm solar radio flux, the recently launched 2003-2004 SOlar expressed in the solar flux unit (sfu) of Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) 10-22Wm-2Hz-1), and PSI is expressed in the unit spacecraft measurements (Kopp et al., 2003). In of 10-5 Wm-2. this paper, 1984-2004, ERBS/ERBE solar monitor measurements, along with the other spacecraft measurements, are analyzed to MEASUREMENTS EMPIRICAL FIT STDEV MEASUREMENTS 1368 9 identify additional long-term TSI trends, which 8 may trigger global climate changes. 1367 7 6 2. BACKGROUND 1366 5 1365 4 From October 1984, through March 24, 3 STDEV TSI, Wm-2 1364 2004, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment 2 TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (TSI), (TSI), Wm-2 SOLAR IRRADIANCE TOTAL (ERBE) active cavity radiometer (ACR) solar 1 1363 monitor was used to produce a continuous 20- 0 year data set of total solar irradiance (TSI) 1362 -1 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 variability measurements. The solar monitor is TIME located on the NASA Earth Radiation Budget Fig. 1. Total solar irradiance (TSI) values are Satellite (ERBS). In our earlier study, we compared a TSI empircal fit for the October 25, indicated that irradiance variability is associated 1984 through March 24, 2004 period, The TSI with solar magnetic activity located in the active values were normalized to the mean earth-sun photospheric regions of sunspots and faculae distance of 1.0 Astronomical Unit (AU). and in the quieter photospheric network Measurement standard deviations are also (Chapman, 1987). Sunspots are relatively dark presented. localized, photospheric areas, which emit less energy than surrounding photospheric areas. The impact of sunspots upon the irradiance can 3. IRRADIANCE MEASUREMENTS be characterized by the parameter photometric sunspot index (PSI). PSI represents the In figure 1, the empirical fit is compared with difference in irradiances emitted by limb-darken- October 25, 1984-March 24, 2004, ERBS ing sunspots and by equal areas of the measurements. The low frequency ERBS undisturbed, quiet photosphere. Faculae are measurements were conducted weekly on bright photospheric magnetic features that often Wednesdays over a 3-minute period during a occur in the vicinity of sunspots and in the single orbit. 765 ERBS TSI measurements are photospheric network. Faculae irradiance presented and compared with the fit. The 765 brightening dominates sunspot irradiance measurements represent less than 2 days, darkening over long-term periods (Lean and approximately 2300 minutes, 1.6 days, of Foukal, 1988; Foukal and Lean, 1990). Faculae exposure to direct solar radiation. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed ERBE SOLAR MONITOR SOHO/VIRGO ACRIMSAT/ACRIM III SORCE EMPIRICAL FIT the existence of a 1.3 Wm-2 (0.1 %), long-term 1368 1367 TSI variability component with a 10-year period. 2 The component varied directly with solar 1366 magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year 1365 sunspot cycles. The 0.1 % TSI variability 1364 component is clearly present in the 1984-2004 1363 1362 ERBS TSI measurements. The ERBS irradiance +2.8 Wm-2 fit and measurements indicate TSI maxima in 1361 TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE, TOTAL Wm- SORCE the 1989-1992, and 1999-2002 periods; while 1360 minimum levels existed during the years 1986 1359 and 1996. The 2000-2004 measurements 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 CALENDAR YEAR suggest that minimum TSI values should occur Fig. 2. 1984-2004, total solar irradiance during 2006 when minimum solar magnetic measurements of the ERBS, VIRGO, AcrimSat, activity is expected. The TSI peak periods and SORCE operational spacecraft missions correspond to periods of maximum solar are presented and normalized to the mean magnetic activity indicated by large sunspot earth-sun distance. numbers and 10.7 solar flux levels. The minimum TSI levels correspond to periods of minimum solar activity. The TSI exhibited at In figure 2, the operational October 25, 1984- least two maxima during each period of March 24, 2004 Earth Radiation Budget Satellite maximum activity. The TSI fit trends mimic the (ERBS), Earth Radiation Budget Experiment double peaks. The 1999-2002 TSI (ERBE) solar monitor (Lee et al., 1995) TSI data measurement peaks appear to be equal in set is compared with other spacecraft TSI data magnitude to the 1989-1992 peaks. However, sets. The February 7, 1996-April 20, 2004, Solar the fit indicates that the 1999-2002 peaks and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/ should be lower. During the 1996 period of Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity minimum solar magnetic activity, the averaged Oscillations (VIRGO), Differential Absolute 0.4 Wm-2. During 1996 TSI value was 1365.0+ RADiometer (DIARAD) (Dewitte et al. 2001) and the 1986 period of minimum solar magnetic PMO missions (Frohlich and Anklin, 2000); April activity, the averaged 1986 TSI value was 4, 2000-June 9, 2004, Active Cavity Radiometer slightly lower at 1964.6+0.3 Wm-2 than the Irradiance Monitor Satellite (AcrimSat) ACRIM corresponding averaged 1996 value.
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