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The Social Impact of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia: Can the Legacy of a Disruptive History Be Overcome?

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The Social Impact of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia: Can the Legacy of a Disruptive History Be Overcome? The social impact of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Central Asia: can the legacy of a disruptive history be overcome? Academic dissertation Promoter: prof. dr. Bruno De Cordier Words: 17746 Karl De Winne 00605461 Master Conflict & Development 2019-2020 Table of contents 1 The Silk Road Economic Belt: the peaceful rise of China? .............................................................. 5 2 What is at stake in Central Asia? ..................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Drivers behind China’s growing presence in Central Asia ....................................................... 8 2.1.1 Domestic economic challenges ....................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 (Geo)political factors ....................................................................................................... 9 2.2 A Blessing or a Burden: the SREB in the Central Asian Republics ......................................... 10 2.2.1 Opportunities ................................................................................................................ 10 2.2.2 Risks associated with a growing Chinese presence in Central Asia ............................... 14 3 The SREB as a reproduction of capitalist Globalization ................................................................. 18 4 How the past is defining the future of Central Asia ...................................................................... 21 4.1 Economic Violence ................................................................................................................ 24 4.1.1 Endemic corruption : rent-seeking activities are flourishing ........................................ 25 4.1.2 The lack of conditionality .............................................................................................. 28 4.2 Local responses to China: sinophobia ................................................................................... 29 4.2.1 Kazakhstan ..................................................................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Kyrgyzstan...................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.3 Tajikistan ........................................................................................................................ 33 4.2.4 Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan ............................................................................................. 34 4.2.5 How real is sinophobia threatening the Central Asian societies ................................... 34 4.3 Central Asia as a patchwork of visible and non-visible borders ............................................ 37 4.3.1 Borderlands ................................................................................................................... 38 4.3.2 Nation Building .............................................................................................................. 39 5 Concluding remarks ....................................................................................................................... 41 ABSTRACT In September 2013, lots of expectations were created as Chinese President Xi Jinping introduced the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) during a speech at Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev University. Since then, a debate started in academic circles as well as in wider society about whether or not the SREB can deliver on local expectations. Based on literature of both the drivers for China’s growing presence in Central Asia as the opportunities and risks associated with this large-scale project for the Central Asian republics, this dissertation argues that the SREB is in fact a reproduction of China’s vision on globalisation. Above all, China wants to establish economic partnerships that can address a number of domestic shortcomings. Furthermore, it is stated that the way in which the SREB will influence local societies in Central Asia cannot be separated from the recent and less recent history of this region. It is concluded that the implementation of SREB is influenced by certain dynamics arising from both the Soviet period and the sudden (and forced) globalization which followed. Moreover, it is shown that without an adjusted policy, the SREB can reinforce certain negative dynamics that are specific to the region. Specifically, it is discussed how the SREB in Central Asia has led to the exacerbation of corrupt practices, the increase of a historically grown sinophobia and the disruption of precarious stability in the border regions. 1 The Silk Road Economic Belt: the peaceful rise of China? The Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) was introduced as part of the Belt and Road Initiative in September 2013 in Central Asia by Chinese president Xi Jinping during a speech1 at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan. The president stressed that building cooperative relationships based on mutual benefit with the Central Asian countries is a priority of China's foreign policy. China aims to improve the common development and prosperity, and to contribute to the happiness and well-being of the people in the countries involved, said the president. The countries involved in the project should strengthen economic ties by better aligning policies, improving road connectivity, promoting trade, enhancing monetary circulation and by strengthening people-to-people exchanges. In addition to economic arguments, security concerns were also put forward. According to Xi, more intensive cooperation is necessary to cope together with the ‘three evil forces’ of terrorism, extremism and separatism, as well as drug trafficking and transnational organized crime. It is remarkable how much the president has emphasized that any form of cooperation will be conducted with the utmost respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each partner. During a similar speech a month later in Indonesia, Xi Jinping presented the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). Together with the SREB, this project forms the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In 2015, a vision text was published by the National Development and Reform Commission led by both the Ministry of Foreign Policy and the Ministry of Commerce. In this document a number of basic principles and policy priorities were explained in detail. The Belt and Road Initiative is praised as a win- win cooperation that promotes prosperity, development and peace by enhancing mutual understanding and trust, and strengthening all-round exchanges (the National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). It is noteworthy that the common character of the project is strongly emphasized. The term 'mutual' occurs no less than 27 times in the document. The project assumes cooperation in various areas. Five major priorities are put forward. First, enhancing intergovernmental cooperation both on intergovernmental as bilateral level is claimed as a necessary condition for the implementation of the project. Improving facility connectivity is proposed a second critical area for project implementation. Taking into account everyone's sovereignty, the countries concerned should align their infrastructure building plans in order to work gradually towards a coherent infrastructure (or transportation) network. Efforts should be made to increase connectivity in the areas of transport, energy and communication. A third priority is to strengthen investment and trade cooperation. The countries along the Belt and Road must create an attractive investment climate 1 For the entire speech see: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn and promote trade between the participating countries. Free trade zones must be created by simplifying customs systems along the Belt and Road in order to facilitate foreign investment. Fourth, further efforts must be made on financial integration. China led investment banks and financial organizations will play a leading role in this. Last but not least China wants to strengthen people-to- people exchanges. By strengthening the friendly exchanges between people along the Belt and Road they want to promote mutual understanding and friendship. On land, the Initiative will focus on jointly building a new Eurasian Land Bridge and developing six economic corridors by taking advantage of international transport routes, relying on core cities along the Belt and Road and using key economic industrial parks as cooperation platforms. The Central Asian states are involved in two of the six economic corridors: the New Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor and the China Central Asia- Western Asia Economic Corridor. Source: Hong Kong Trade Development Council and Nomura Global Economics As made clear in this vision document, China is trying to convince potential partners with a discourse linking improved connectivity with economic progress, security and stability (Lain, 2018), which of course strikes a chord with central Asian regimes. According to Xi Jinping (Speech at the Fourth Summit of The Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), 2014) Asian countries need to ‘improve people’s lives and narrow down the wealth gap so as to cement the foundation of security’. Contrary to popular belief, China's investments in central Asia are not new. In order to improve ties with its immediate neighbours and to promote the country's peaceful rise, China introduced 'the good neighbourhood policy' already in the late 1980's (Laruellle & Peyrouse, 2012). The SREB represents, however, an amplification
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