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Silent Warfare : Understanding the World of Intelligence / Abram N

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Silent Warfare : Understanding the World of Intelligence / Abram N SILENT WARFARE UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD OF INTELLIGENCE Abram N. Shulsky Foreword by Roy Godson BRASSEY’S (US), Inc. A Division of Maxwell Macmillan, Inc. Washington • New York • London • Oxford Beijing • Frankfurt • Sâo Paulo • Sydney • Tokyo • Toronto All rights reserved. No part ot this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without per­ mission in writing from the publisher. Brassey’s (US), Inc. Editorial Offices Order Department Brassey’s (US), Inc. Brassey’s Book Orders 8000 Westpark Drive % Macmillan Publishing Co. First Floor Front and Brown Streets McLean, Virginia 22102 Riverside, New Jersey 08075 Brassey’s (US), Inc., books are available at special discounts for bulk purchases for sales promotions, premiums, fund-raising, or educational use through the Special Sales Director, Macmillan Publishing Company, 866 Third Avenue, New York, New York 10022. Excerpts from Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy by Sherman Kent. Copyright 1949 by Princeton University Press. Copyright © renewed 1976 by Princeton University Press. Reprinted with permission of Princeton University Press. Excerpts from Secrecy and Democracy: The CIA in Transition by Admiral Stans- field Turner. Copyright © 1985 by Stansfield Turner. Reprinted by permission of Houghton Mifflin Company. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shulsky, Abram N. Silent warfare : understanding the world of intelligence / Abram N. Shulsky. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 0-08-040566-5 1. Intelligence service. 2. Intelligence service—United States. I. Title. JF1525.I6S49 1991 327.12—dc20 90-49399 CIP British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Shulsky, Abram N. Silent warfare : understanding the world of intelligence. 1. Intelligence services I. Title 327.12 ISBN 0-08-040566-5 Published in the United States of America Designed by Nancy Sugihara 10 98765432 To the memory of my parents CONTENTS Foreword ix Preface xi Introduction: Writing about Secrets xiii 1 What Is Intelligence? 1 The Scope o f Intellignce 3 The Elements of Intelligence 7 2 Spies, Machines, and Libraries: Collecting the Data 11 Human Intelligence Collection 11 Technical Intelligence Collection 20 Comparison of Humint and Techint 30 Open-source Collection 33 3 What Does It All Mean? Intelligence Analysis and Production 37 What Is Analysis? 37 The Intelligence Product 53 Intelligence Failure and Surprise 59 Vll 4 Working Behind the Scenes: Covert Action 73 What Is Covert Action? Some Definitions 73 Types and Examples of Covert Action 76 Covert Action and Secrecy 90 Covert Action and Intelligence 95 5 Spy vs. Spy: Counterintelligence 99 The Classification of Information 100 Security 105 Counterespionage 109 Multidisciplinary Counterintelligence (MDCI) 115 Deception and Counterdeception 118 Counterintellignce Analysis 128 6 Guarding the Guardians: The Management of Intelligence 131 Secrecy and Control 131 Expertise and Policy 136 Intelligence and Democracy 144 7 Two Views of Intelligence 159 Historical Development of the American View 161 Intelligence and Moral Issues 168 8 Toward a Theory of Intelligence 171 The Dual Nature of Intelligence 177 Notes 181 Index 217 About the Author 223 FOREWORD The literature on intelligence, security, and statecraft is large and continues to grow. These “ serious’’ studies are matched in the popular literature by a large volume of espionage fiction. Sifting the wheat from the chaff, how­ ever, is not easy. The Intelligence & National Security Library is intended to make available important studies and firsthand accounts by Western and non-Western intelligence practitioners, scholars, and others who have amassed interesting information and analyses. Individual titles are reviewed by an editorial advisory board of scholars and former senior intelligence officials from Western Europe and North America. Though every volume stands on its own merit, the series as a whole is intended to improve our understanding of intelligence and its relationship to security. This volume provides a unique introduction to the world of intelligence and fills the need for a single, comprehensive, understandable book on this subject. The author, Abram N. Shulsky, has extensive knowledge and experience with intelligence both in academia and in the legislative and executive branches of government. In the early 1980s he was minority 0-e., Democratic) staff director of the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which is responsible for overseeing the entire U.S. intelli­ gence system. He then served as the director of strategic arms control policy at the U.S. Defense Department, and later was a consultant to the president’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board in the White House. In this book, Shulsky explains the major missions and products of intel­ ligence agencies, as well as the procedures and activities used to achieve diem. He also explores the complex tensions and relationship between a IX secret intelligence agency and the democratic government and society that it serves. Silent Warfare breaks new ground in intelligence studies by propos­ ing a framework that focuses on the dual nature of intelligence— as both a search for knowledge about political, military, and economic matters (with similarities, therefore, to social science) and as an element of the struggle among nations (with similarities to war). Shulsky brings together the knowl­ edge and insights gained in the past decade as intelligence studies mush­ roomed in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. This book codifies “ intelligence” for the professional and the serious student, while also providing a realistic framework for those fascinated by fiction about intelligence agencies and their operatives. Roy Godson General Editor Intelligence & National Security Library Washington, D.C. PREFACE This book has its origin in a course on intelligence that I taught in 1985 as a visiting professor at the University of Chicago’s John M. Olin Center for Inquiry into the Theory and Practice of Democracy. Returning to the aca­ demic world forced me to impose some order on my thoughts concerning intelligence, a subject with which I had become familiar in the public policy world of Washington. I am grateful to the Olin Center’s director, Allan Bloom, for this opportunity and for much, much else besides. While working on this book, I enjoyed the hospitality of the National Strategy Information Center, where I held the title of senior fellow, an enviable position with maximum freedom and a minimum of responsibili­ ties. I am grateful to the center’s president, Frank R. Barnett; to the director of its Washington office, Roy Godson; and to Jeffrey Berman, factotum, for their support. Through this affiliation, 1 remained in close contact with the work of the Consortium for the Study of Intelligence and the Intelligence Studies Section of the International Studies Association. This book owes a great deal to the participants in the colloquia and conventions of these two organizations, and I hope that it repays its debt to them by providing an introduction to intel­ ligence studies that they will find useful in their own teaching. I am particularly grateful to the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation for ,ts generous and patient financial support and to its vice president for pro­ grams, Hillel G. Fradkin, for his personal interest and sponsorship. I also wish to thank the John M. Olin Foundation for its support of the project’s initial stages. xi My work on this book was assisted by information and comments pro­ vided by the following friends and fellow students of intelligence: Eliot A. Cohen. Diane S. Dornan, Kenneth E. deGraffenreid, Sam Halperin, Carnes R. Lord, and Kenneth G. Robertson. I wish to express my gratitude to them and to Gary J. Schmitt, whose careful critique of the manuscript, to say nothing of his friendship and encouragement, contributed greatly to the final result. I am. of course, solely responsible for its errors and omissions. Abram N. Shulsky Washington, D.C. INTRODUCTION WRITING ABOUT SECRETS A nother book about intelligence. So much has been published on this topic in recent years that we have almost lost the sense that there is anything paradoxical or even controversial about the public discussion of a subject that has secrecy as an essential characteristic. Of course, in any democracy, government business is the people’s business, and there is strong sympathy for a policy of publicizing rather than concealing the government’s actions. Nevertheless, it is also generally understood that safeguarding national security in a dangerous world requires that many government actions be kept secret from foreign adversaries. This, in turn, requires that the domestic public be kept in the dark as well. Indeed, even democratic governments (that of the United States included), to say nothing of undemocratic ones, impose regulations requiring almost complete secrecy about most aspects of intelligence operations and information. Therefore, those outside the gov­ ernment who write about intelligence are sooner or later faced with the questions of why are they writing about a secret subject and, perhaps more important, how are they able to do so. In reviewing the extensive literature on intelligence, you can see certain ways in which the question of secrecy has been addressed, although this is more often done implicitly rather than explicitly. According to one
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