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Greater China Consumer - Food Services 6 March 2020 Greater China EQUITIES Greater China Consumer - Food services Inside Look forward to 2021 HK/China consumer valuation table 2 Key points Restaurants 4 Restaurant remains fragmented but hot pot remains popular. Condiments 7 Leading condiment players keep consolidating with pricing power. Restaurant GPM to normalize in 2H20, Initiate on Haidilao and Angel Yeast. Haidilao, Fuling Zhacai and Angel condiment price hikes in the cards 13 Yeast are our top picks. The China restaurant and condiment industries are in the sweet spot with likely Restaurants high-single-digit growth over the next three years. With rising health Haidilao (6862 HK) 16 consciousness and brand awareness, we expect the branded names will consolidate the market share. We are initiating coverage of Haidilao and Angel Yum China Holdings (YUMC US) 43 Yeast. Along with Fuling Zhacai, they are our top picks in this sector. We believe Xiabuxiabu Catering (520 HK) 47 Haidilao’s high valuation is justified by fast store expansion and high-quality Gourmet Master (2723 TT) 52 mgmt. Fuling’s channel inventory destock is coming to the end, and we expect it will resume growth from new channels and new products. For Angel Yeast, we expect overseas expansion and Yeast Extract will drive sales growth and margins Condiments will expand on price hikes, better product mix and higher operating efficiency. Fuling Zhacai (A-Share) (002507 CH) 57 Restaurant remains fragmented but hot pot remains popular Angel Yeast (A-Share) (600298 CH) 76 China’s restaurant sector will see a material NP impact in 1H20 as many restaurants have faced temporary store closures amid COVID-19. That said, we expect the impact to be transitory and the industry will continue to deliver high-single-digit growth p.a. in the long run. While it’s hard to predict when it will normalize, we now estimate 1H20 NP for covered restaurants will decline 30-45% YoY. Given the industry is highly fragmented, chain operators have ample room to consolidate the market given scale advantage and mature operations. Cuisine-wise, we are positive on hot pot as it’s in the sweet spot to gain share from other cuisines given changing demographics, a flexible menu offering and interactive dining experience. We prefer market leaders with strong NP growth potential and Haidilao is our top pick in the space. Restaurants’ GPM to normalize in 2H20 We expect restaurants’ GPM may trend down in 1H20 before normalizing in 2H20 as restaurants gradually resume operations. We believe the animal protein cost pressure will gradually ease in 2020, given we expect the hog price reflection point will occur in 2H20. The broiler price is likely to rebound in 2Q20 due to supply chain disruptions in 1Q20 amid COVID-19. Based on our analysis, a 10% meat protein price change could result in a 6%/15%/17% OP change for YUMC, XiabuXiabu and Haidilao. Leading condiment players keep consolidating with pricing power The China condiment industry could enjoy high-single-digit industry growth over Analysts the next three years. Channel-wise, the 2B channel benefits from both a strong restaurant industry and delivery growth though there are near-term hiccups. On Macquarie Capital Limited Linda Huang, CFA +852 3922 4068 the other hand, we expect the 2C channel will benefit from the steady [email protected] consumption upgrade trend and multi-category expansion. We believe both Terence Chang +852 3922 3581 Fuling Zhacai and Angel Yeast will consolidate the market on the back of the [email protected] consumption upgrade trend. We expect the leading players will demonstrate Sunny Chow +852 3922 3768 pricing power to pass through the raw materials pressure to consumers. [email protected] Top picks Cici Yu +86 21 2412 9078 Restaurants: Haidilao is our top pick. Maintain OP on XiabuXiabu given new strategies [email protected] to rejuvenate growth. Maintain N on YUMC due to the moderating SSSg trend. Hugo Shen +86 21 2412 9077 Condiments: Fuling Zhacai and Angel Yeast are our top picks. Maintain OP on [email protected] Haitian due to market consolidation and fast oyster sauce growth. Maintain N on Yihai due to raw materials cost pressure and high valuation. Please refer to page 102 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. 6 March 2020 6 March Macquarie Research HK/China consumer valuation table Fig 1 Valuation comp table – Consumer Discretionary Company Name Code Price Rating TP Upside Mkt Cap P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) EPS Grow th (%) PEG Div yield (lcy/sh) (lcy/sh) (%) US$m 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2020E 2019E 2020E Department stores Golden Eagle 3308 HK 7.93 OP 12.70 60% 1,722 9.7 8.4 1.7 1.6 18.8 19.7 35.7 15.5 0.5 5.6 6.5 Lifestyle 1212 HK 7.50 OP 14.30 91% 1,397 6.9 6.8 2.9 2.5 48.0 39.3 -9.0 1.2 5.8 8.9 8.9 Luxury Samsonite International 1910 HK 13.00 OP 21.20 63% 2,390 13.7 10.7 1.2 1.1 11.7 12.6 -21.9 13.3 0.8 3.4 4.3 Prada 1913 HK 25.60 OP 30.50 19% 8,577 30.6 43.8 2.5 2.6 8.4 5.8 20.2 -30.2 -1.4 2.6 1.8 Chow Tai Fook 1929 HK 6.65 OP 9.50 43% 8,596 14.5 15.3 2.2 2.1 14.3 13.9 11.8 -5.2 -3.0 9.8 5.2 Luk Fook 590 HK 19.40 OP 25.80 33% 1,431 7.6 9.8 1.1 1.0 14.5 10.8 9.0 -22.4 -0.4 5.9 5.6 Chow Sang Sang 116 HK 9.22 OP 17.00 84% 791 6.5 6.5 0.6 0.5 8.9 8.5 -3.2 0.3 19.9 6.0 6.1 Sportsw ear Anta Sports 2020 HK 64.10 OP 80.00 25% 22,634 28.8 20.5 7.7 6.0 30.0 33.0 30.6 40.2 0.5 1.5 1.9 Li Ning 2331 HK 20.60 OP 25.80 25% 6,727 36.8 26.0 6.5 5.5 19.4 22.8 68.2 41.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 Topsports 6110 HK 9.10 OP 11.20 23% 7,094 NA 18.8 NA 4.7 nmf 24.9 NA NA NA nmf 2.7 Cosmetics Sa Sa 178 HK 1.47 Neutral 1.90 29% 587 123.4 37.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 5.3 -92.3 233.5 0.2 0.7 2.0 L' Occitane 973 HK 14.44 OP 23.00 59% 2,729 17.3 15.4 2.2 2.0 13.2 13.5 18.8 12.7 1.2 1.8 2.1 Shanghai Jahw a 600315 CH 26.58 UP 20.00 -25% 2,587 47.5 49.2 2.8 2.7 6.2 5.7 -24.0 -3.5 -14.2 0.9 1.4 Home appliance GOME 493 HK 0.84 UP 0.40 -52% 2,358 NA NA 1.2 1.3 -7.9 -9.4 -77.9 8.4 NA 0.0 0.0 Suning 002024 CH 9.54 Neutral 13.90 46% 13,028 276.6 234.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 -80.8 18.0 NA 0.7 0.9 Haier Electronics 1169 HK 22.75 OP 25.60 13% 8,532 13.8 12.1 2.1 1.9 16.4 16.5 9.7 14.0 0.9 1.7 2.3 Haier Smart Home 600690 CH 17.64 OP 20.50 16% 16,457 14.6 12.5 2.3 2.0 17.1 17.1 11.7 16.8 0.7 2.5 2.6 Midea Group 000333 CH 54.50 OP 64.00 17% 54,416 15.3 13.1 4.0 3.3 27.1 27.5 24.8 16.5 0.8 2.8 3.2 Gree 000651 CH 59.99 Neutral 59.00 -2% 51,648 13.3 12.2 3.4 2.9 27.3 25.7 5.8 9.4 1.3 3.1 3.4 Hangzhou Robam 002508 CH 31.90 Neutral 27.70 -13% 4,408 19.6 16.9 4.4 3.8 23.8 24.1 10.9 16.1 1.1 2.8 3.2 Home improvement Man Wah 1999 HK 5.46 Neutral 5.30 -3% 2,643 17.2 15.8 3.4 2.9 20.1 19.7 -8.1 8.9 1.8 2.2 2.6 OEM Shenzhou 2313 HK 99.80 OP 117.00 17% 19,866 25.9 20.7 5.4 4.8 22.1 24.5 14.6 24.6 0.8 2.0 2.4 Stella Intnl 1836 HK 9.93 OP 15.90 67% 1,037 8.9 8.4 1.1 1.0 11.9 12.4 6.1 6.7 1.3 7.1 7.5 Pacific Textile 1382 HK 5.10 OP 6.40 37% 935 8.3 9.0 2.2 2.2 26.8 24.8 19.7 -7.5 -1.2 11.2 10.1 Li & Fung 494 HK 0.66 OP 1.50 135% 714 9.4 5.4 0.4 0.3 4.0 6.7 -37.0 75.8 0.1 7.5 13.1 Yue Yuen 551 HK 18.78 Neutral 24.00 28% 3,776 13.4 11.0 0.9 0.9 7.0 8.5 -9.7 22.0 0.5 8.0 8.0 Tourism Greater China Consumer China Int'l Travel Service 601888 CH 79.17 OP 132.00 67% 22,154 35.9 26.7 7.6 6.4 23.6 26.1 26.8 34.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 China CYTS Tours 600138 CH 10.56 OP 14.10 34% 1,106 13.3 12.8 1.1 1.0 9.0 8.6 -10.6 4.3 3.0 1.3 1.3 Restaurant and supply chain YUM China YUMC US 44.77 Neutral 39.60 -12% 16,824 24.4 29.4 5.5 5.0 24.0 17.9 3.0 -17.1 NM 1.1 1.1 Café de Coral 341 HK 17.10 OP 22.90 34% 1,284 22.0 19.4 2.9 2.9 13.3 15.1 -23.6 13.6 1.4 4.9 4.9 Xiabu Xiabu 520 HK 7.92 OP 9.40 19% 1,126 21.2 21.8 3.1 2.9 15.4 13.8 -21.6 -2.4 -9.2 3.9 3.3 Haidilao 6862 HK 32.30 OP 40.00 24% 22,131 66.8 58.1 14.5 12.0 23.9 22.7 30.3 15.0 3.9 0.4 0.4 Gourmet Master 2723 TT 96.20 Neutral 97.00 1% 569 17.0 17.6 1.7 1.6 16.4 9.7 -39.0 -3.4 -5.1 3.0 2.9 Yihai 1579 HK 55.20 Neutral 46.50 -16% 7,504 64.4 48.8 18.4 14.2 32.3 32.8 44.0 31.8 1.5 0.9 1.1 Haitian 603288 CH 103.75 OP 83.30 -20% 40,345 55.2 45.2 16.9 14.2 33.4 34.1 24.7 22.2 2.0 0.9 1.2 Fuling Zhacai 002507 CH 28.82 OP 34.50 20% 3,377 35.4 31.0 7.8 6.5 23.8 22.9 0.7 14.1 2.2 0.9 1.0 Angel Yeast 600298 CH 30.12 OP 41.60 40% 3,775 27.5 24.7 5.0 4.3 18.6 17.9 5.4 11.1 2.2 1.2 1.4 - TCI 8436 TT 235.50 Neutral 255.00 8% 911 15.1 15.5 4.1 3.6 32.0 24.4 0.9 -3.0 -5.2 2.9 2.6 Education Food services EDU EDU US 134.20 OP 163.00 22% 21,261 46.6 35.8 8.1 6.6 18.0 20.4 29.2 29.9 1.2 0.0 0.6 TAL TAL US 58.31 OP 62.70 8% 34,504 70.6 219.0 12.7 12.4 21.7 5.7 96.0 -67.7 -3.2 0.0 0.0 Hong Kong China Consumer Discretionary ex Suning 27.5 26.6 4.6 4.0 3.2 3.4 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, November 2019.
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