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Gos on the Route Choice Behaviour of Car Drivers Modelling the Effect of the Number of Stop-&-gos on the Route Choice Behaviour of Car Drivers By Neeraj Saxena M. Tech. (Transportation), B. Tech. (Civil) A thesis presented in the fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering The University of New South Wales August 2017 ॐ जननी जꅍमभूमम�च व셍गादपि 셍रीयसी । Mother and Motherland are superior to Heaven. 셍ु셁 셍ोबिꅍद दोउ खडे कगके लग셍ँू िगँय । िमलहगरी 셍ु셁 आिने 셍ोबिꅍद ददयो ितगय ॥ Guru and God both are here to whom should I first bow. All glory be unto the guru path to God who did bestow. This thesis is dedicated to my Parents, Gurus and Motherland Neeraj Saxena iii ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed …… ……… Date …… 28/08/2017 …….. Neeraj Saxena iv COPYRIGHT STATEMENT ‘I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright material; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.' Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date ……………………………………………........................... AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT ‘I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format.’ Signed ……………………………………………........................... Date ……………………………………………........................... Modelling the Effect of the Number of Stop-&-gos on the Route Choice Behaviour of Car Drivers Neeraj Saxena, Ph.D. The University of New South Wales Sydney Supervisors: Prof. S. Travis Waller Assoc. Prof. Vinayak V. Dixit Neeraj Saxena v ABSTRACT Driving in stop-&-go (S&G) traffic can be a frustrating experience and can lead to an increase in fuel emissions, driver distress and safety risks. Past studies have modelled the time spent in S&G traffic as one of the factors for the disutility of a route. These studies did not account for the effect of the number of S&G waves, which has been found to bear a closer relationship with driver discomfort. This thesis tests the research hypothesis that an increase in the number of S&Gs on a route increases its disutility for a driver. As a proof of concept, a Stated Choice (SC) experiment was initially conducted on a sample of university staff and students. A D-efficient pivot design technique was used to generate the set of choice tasks. The competing routes were defined in terms of the number of S&Gs along with other travel attributes. The collected data was analysed using a Random Parameter Error Component Logit model to account for the taste heterogeneity and serial correlation among the choice tasks. The results showed that the number of S&Gs negatively impacted the utility of a route, thus validating the proposed hypothesis. Another follow-up SC study was then conducted on a sample of general commuters in Sydney. The data from this study was analysed using a Latent Class Choice Model which relaxed the distributional assumption associated with the previous statistical model. The obtained results showed a negative effect for the number of S&Gs, except for nearly one quarter of the sample which was indifferent towards this attribute. Lastly, a driving simulator experiment was conducted to further understand the role of S&G traffic characteristics on driver frustration. Participants were made to drive through virtual scenarios depicting varying S&G traffic conditions. A Structural Equation Model was estimated on the data which indicated that the number of S&Gs had a positive effect on the level of frustration and was also observed to influence route choice. The findings from this thesis not only extend the body of knowledge on intricate route choice behaviour of drivers, but also inform policies aimed at reducing traffic congestion and the resulting S&G traffic. Neeraj Saxena vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS As the day approaches when I submit this once in a lifetime document, the Ph.D. thesis, I like to acknowledge the people whose continuous love, support and prayers have made me see this day. I first thank my thesis supervisors Professor S. Travis Waller and Associate Professor Vinayak V. Dixit for giving me the flexibility to work on something which I loved and the encouragement to keep on exploring my interests. I also thank them for their tremendous support and faith that they have kept on me. I also thank Dr. Taha Hossein Rashidi, Senior Lecturer, for igniting the passion towards statistics and econometrics in me. I would also like to thank my friend Subodh Kant Dubey for his mentoring in econometrics because of which I was able to code the different statistical models used in this thesis. I also thank Dr. Lauren Gardner and Dr. David Rey for giving valuable feedback during my candidature. I immensely thank the other staff and fellow Ph.D. colleagues at my research centre (rCITI, UNSW Sydney) for their support, especially during the driving simulator experiment. Right from Sai and Ted, who thoroughly tested the experiment, to Maria, Kasun and many more, who helped me get participants. I got this very special feeling seeing everyone trying equally hard like me to make this study a success. I thank Ted, my sisters (Divya and Nidhi), brother (Anuj) and uncle for proofreading this thesis. I am grateful to my friends from my research lab, LG#09, who not only rejoiced with me in celebrations, but more importantly, not letting me surrender to situations whenever going became tough. I would first thank Divya for being a lovely sister and a wonderful friend to me. Ted and Sai for their valuable advice, both on professional and personal front. Hassan, Raed, Abdul, Shantanu along with others for always maintaining a cheerful and positive environment in our lab. I will always remember our outings, particularly to El Jannah, whose chicken kept me motivated to go through every week quickly. I am so thankful to Divya and Prasanna, and Alex and Deepa for treating me as their own family while I was miles away from my own. Of course, how can I forget to thank my little friends and packets of energy, Isha and Devvance. I thank all my teachers, especially Sir R. K. Sharma, for instilling passion towards studies in me. He truly exemplifies that it takes just one good teacher to transform one’s life. I also thank my big family for always praying for my success. Particularly, Neeraj Saxena vii my mummy and papa for their blessings and all the sacrifices they have made so that I can fulfil my dream. I thank all my school and college friends for giving me some unforgettable moments. I am grateful to my motherland, India, for giving me my identity. I also thank the people of Australia for respecting my background and ethnicity and giving me a healthy atmosphere to focus on my thesis. I would like to acknowledge the teachings from our holy scripture, the Bhagavad Gita, which gave me strength during hard times. Lastly, I thank the supreme power and the creator of this universe for listening to my prayers and making me see this day. I, Neeraj Saxena, date 4th August, 2017, would like to thank each one of you from the bottom of my heart. This thesis would not have been possible without your love and support. I am so blessed to have you around. (Neeraj Saxena) Neeraj Saxena viii LIST OF RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS AND AWARDS The list of conference proceedings and under review journal publications that have contributed towards the development of this thesis are as follows: Publications in Conference Proceedings Saxena, N., Rashidi, T.H., Dixit, V.V. & Waller, S.T. (2017). Influence of Number of Stop-&-Gos on the Route Choice Behavior of Car Drivers in Urban Road Networks. Proceedings of the 96th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, January 2017, Washington D.C., USA. Saxena, N., Dixit, V.V. & Waller, S.T. (2016). Techniques for Identifying the Occurrence of Stop-&-go Waves in Traffic: A Literature Review. Proceedings of the 38th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Melbourne, AU. Papers under Review in Peer-reviewed Journals Saxena, N., Rashidi, T.H., Dixit, V.V.
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