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Understanding Why Terrorist Operations Succeed Or Fail HOMELAND SECURITY PROGRAM Project supported by a RAND Investment in People and Ideas THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Homeland Security Program View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occasional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summary of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. Understanding Why Terrorist Operations Succeed or Fail Brian A. Jackson, David R. Frelinger HOMELAND SECURITY PROGRAM Project supported by a RAND Investment in People and Ideas This Occasional Paper results from the RAND Corporation’s continuing program of self-initiated research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on client-funded research. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Jackson, Brian A. Understanding why terrorist operations succeed or fail / Brian A. Jackson, David R. Frelinger. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4767-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—Psychological aspects. 2. Terrorists—Attitudes. 3. Terrorism—Planning. 4. Terrorism—Prevention. I. Frelinger, Dave. II. Title. HV6431.J2838 2009 363.325—dc22 2009029748 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Created in the wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the Department of Home- land Security came into being with the daunting core mission of taking action to protect the nation from terrorist attack and the simultaneous requirement to continue to perform the numerous other critical functions of all its component agencies. The complexity of the depart- ment’s mission was further compounded by the fact that it depended not only on the success of the department’s component agencies, but also on the efforts of a national homeland-security enterprise comprised of organizations at the federal, state, and local levels, both inside and outside government. That there have been challenges in carrying out this endeavor in the years since should surprise no one. However, it has also been the fortunate reality that, whatever those challenges, at the time of this writing, there have been no major terrorist attacks within the United States since 9/11. This paper is one of a series of short papers that began as the result of a RAND research effort during the transition in presidential administrations in 2008–2009. As the first change in administration since the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, this period rep- resented an opportunity to reexamine and revisit the goals of homeland security policy and assess how we as a nation are trying to achieve them, ask whether what we are doing is work- ing, and make adjustments where necessary. The goal of RAND’s research effort was not to comprehensively cover homeland security writ large, but rather to focus on a small set of policy areas, produce essays exploring different approaches to various policy problems, and frame key questions that need to be answered if homeland security policy is to be improved going forward. The results of this effort were diverse, ranging from thought experiments about ways to reframe individual policy problems to more wide-ranging examinations of broader policy regimes. These discussions should be of interest to homeland security policymakers at the federal, state, and local levels and to members of the public interested in homeland security and counterterrorism. This paper examines the issue of why terrorist operations succeed or fail. Given the importance of this issue for security planning, there is a significant literature on the topic, and a variety of these contributions identify factors that can shape operations going well or poorly. This paper reacts to and responds to that literature and proposes an overarching framework for thinking through why attack options can have very different outcomes. In it, we argue that such a framework is critical for security planning efforts because focusing on individual factors in isolation risks producing an overall picture that does not accurately describe terrorist behavior. This effort is built on a broad foundation of RAND homeland security research and analysis carried out both before and since the founding of the Department of Homeland Secu- rity. Examples of those studies include: iii iv Understanding Why Terrorist Operations Succeed or Fail • Brian A. Jackson, Peter Chalk, Kim Cragin, Bruce Newsome, John V. Parachini, Wil- liam Rosenau, Erin M. Simpson, Melanie W. Sisson, and Donald Temple, Breaching the Fortress Wall: Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-481-DHS, 2007. • Tom LaTourrette, David R. Howell, David E. Mosher, and John MacDonald, Reduc- ing Terrorism Risk at Shopping Centers: An Analysis of Potential Security Options, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, TR-401, 2006. • Henry H. Willis, Andrew R. Morral, Terrence K. Kelly, and Jamison Jo Medby, Estimat- ing Terrorism Risk, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-388-RC, 2005. Although the ideas and frameworks described in this paper have been developed over sev- eral years of research for the Department of Homeland Security, the National Institute of Jus- tice, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and other sponsors, the views expressed herein are not necessarily those of RAND or of any of its research sponsors. The authors would also like to acknowledge the contribution of the two reviewers of the manuscript, Bruce Hoffman and Ami Pedahzur, whose comments were very helpful in improving the paper. Its remaining shortcomings are the sole responsibility of the authors. The RAND Homeland Security Program This research was conducted under the auspices of the Homeland Security Program within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE). The mission of RAND Infrastruc- ture, Safety, and Environment is to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential physical assets and natural resources and to enhance the related social assets of safety and security of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. Homeland Security Program research supports the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies charged with preventing and mitigating the effects of terrorist activity within U.S. borders. Projects address critical infrastructure protection, emergency management, ter- rorism risk management, border control, first responders and preparedness, domestic threat assessments, domestic intelligence, and workforce and training. Information about the Home- land Security Program is available online (http://www.rand.org/ise/security/). Inquiries about homeland security research projects should be sent to the following address: Andrew Morral, Director Homeland Security Program,
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