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Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Paths to Victory Lessons from Modern Insurgencies Christopher Paul Colin P. Clarke Beth Grill Molly Dunigan C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Paths to Victory Lessons from Modern Insurgencies Christopher Paul Colin P. Clarke Beth Grill Molly Dunigan Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Paul, Christopher, 1971- Paths to victory : lessons from modern insurgencies / Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, Beth Grill, Molly Dunigan. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-8054-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Counterinsurgency—Case studies. I. Clarke, Colin P. II. Grill, Beth. III. Dunigan, Molly. IV. Title. U241.P379 2013 355.02'18—dc23 2013032277 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark Cover design by Pete Soriano; image by Thinkstock © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface This research follows and expands a previous study that examined and compared the 30 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide between 1978 and 2008, published in 2010 as Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency.1 This report supersedes that earlier publication in most respects. Like the original effort, the research documented here recounts the demonstrated effectiveness of a variety of counterinsurgency (COIN) concepts through case studies of insurgencies. However, the base of evidence has been expanded to 71 cases—all of the insurgencies completed worldwide between 1944 and 2010. In addition to expanding the number and scope of the cases, the effort entailed broadening the accompanying analyses. All analyses conducted as part of the original effort are repeated, but several new ones have been added, including an analysis of the duration of insur- gencies and of factors that are unique to cases involving support to the counterinsurgent force from an outside actor. This report presents findings from all the analyses and explains the study’s case selection and methods. It also presents an overview and in-depth assessments of the key concepts, practices, and factors that feature prominently in successful COIN operations. The 41 new case studies are summarized in the companion volume, Paths to Victory: Detailed Insurgency Case Studies (RR-291/2-OSD, available at 1 Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, and Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-964-OSD, 2010b. iii iv Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR291z2.html). A com- panion volume to the original study, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, includes detailed case histories for each of the original 30 COIN campaigns.2 A spreadsheet with the full case data for all 71 cases is available for download at http://www. rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR291z1.html. This work will be of interest to defense analysts and military plan- ners who are responsible for evaluating current and future U.S. opera- tions and COIN approaches; to academics and scholars who engage in historical research on COIN, insurgency, and irregular warfare; and to students of contemporary and historic international conflicts. This research was sponsored by Office of the Secretary of Defense, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, Irregular Warfare Division (OSD[CAPE]IW), and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center spon- sored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the -Uni fied Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). 2 Christopher Paul, Colin P. Clarke, and Beth Grill, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-964/1-OSD, 2010a. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ........................................................................ xvii Acknowledgments .......................................................... xxxvii Abbreviations ................................................................. xxxix CHaptER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Purpose of This Study ............................................................. 1 Defining COIN and the Implications of the Term ............................ 2 Theoretical Underpinnings of Counterinsurgency ............................. 4 Data and Analyses ................................................................. 8 About This Report and Accompanying Case Studies .......................... 9 CHaptER TWO The Cases ..........................................................................13 Case Selection and Data Collection ............................................13 Phased Data ........................................................................16 Assessing Case Outcomes ........................................................16 UK in Palestine, 1944–1947 ...................................................21 Greece, 1945–1949 .............................................................21 Indochina, 1946–1955 ........................................................ 22 Philippines (Huk Rebellion), 1946–1956 ................................... 23 Colombia (“La Violencia”), 1948–1958 ..................................... 23 Malaya, 1948–1955 ............................................................ 24 v vi Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies Kenya, 1952–1956 ..............................................................25 Algerian Independence, 1954–1962 ..........................................25 Cyprus, 1955–1959 ...........................................................
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