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The Challenges of Political Terrorism: a Cross-National Analysis of the Downward Spiral of Terrorist Violence and Socio-Political Crisis

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The Challenges of Political Terrorism: a Cross-National Analysis of the Downward Spiral of Terrorist Violence and Socio-Political Crisis THE CHALLENGES OF POLITICAL TERRORISM: A CROSS-NATIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL OF TERRORIST VIOLENCE AND SOCIO-POLITICAL CRISIS DISSERTATION: Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of the Ohio State University By Kristopher K. Robison, M.A. * * * * * The Ohio State University 2007 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Edward M. Crenshaw, Adviser Professor J. Craig Jenkins ____________________________ Adviser Professor Pamela M. Paxton Graduate Program in Sociology ABSTRACT Since September the 11th, 2001, terrorism has received renewed attention and study from the media, publics and scholars alike. While voluminous journalistic writings and some empirical research exists on the causes and structures of terrorism, comparatively little research has thoroughly explored the political and social impacts of terrorism and the responses societies and states have to terrorism. Conventional wisdom suggests that terrorism is born of political and economic grievance in poor, quasi- authoritarian states. Indeed, a large number of terrorist attacks are within developing nations. However, the relationship between structural conditions and terror may be more complicated. What if terrorism contributes to political and social disruption, which in turn leads to even more grievances that inspire further campaigns of political violence? In other words, does terrorism breed the very conditions that encourage insurgency in the first place, leading to a downward spiral of conflict and grievance thereby worsening the plight developing nations find themselves in? This dissertation project argues that a major period of terrorism within the developing world stimulates a series of important political and social crises that under certain specific conditions spawn broader and more intense forms of political conflict. I explore the relationships between terrorism and specific political outcomes for a large sample of developing nations over a thirty-five year period. I find evidence that non-state, ii civil-based terrorism plays an important role in altering political systems within several developing societies. For instance, on average terrorism tends to increase state repression over accommodative policies creating an atmosphere of state terrorism. Terrorism also raises the chances for irregular transfers of power (e.g., coup d’etats) and transforms into full-scale civil war under certain specific conditions. By focusing on the consequences of terrorism across a broad sample of the world’s developing nations, this study expands our understanding of terrorism and terrorism’s intended or unintended reach into society and politics. Thus this project should contribute to more prudent and analytically-informed polices that address both the origins of terrorism and lead to the construction of sound and responsible approaches to dealing with terror and its attendant social and political fallout. iii Dedicated to my wife Fleur iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Several individuals have aided and advised me in this project. I first wish to thank my adviser, Edward Crenshaw for his supportive mentorship, timely wisdom, numerous opportunities for research collaboration and finally for the specific suggestions and critique he gave for this dissertation. I would also like to express thanks to Craig Jenkins and Pamela Paxton for their helpful comments and guidance in crafting this project. I also wish to thank the staff and faculty in the department of sociology at Ohio State for their encouragement and unending support in my graduate training. On a more personal note, I would like to like to thank my wife for her unwavering commitment and dedication during these last several years and to my parents and in-laws for their encouragement and financial support when times were lean. v VITA March 6, 1974………………………………….Born – Lubbock, Texas 1999……………………………………………Master of Arts, the Ohio State University 2005……………………………………………Admitted to Candidacy 1999-present……………………………………Graduate Researcher, Mershon International Center PUBLICATIONS 1. Robison, Kristopher K., Edward M. Crenshaw and J. Craig Jenkins. 2006. "Ideologies of Violence: The Social Origins of Islamist and Leftist Transnational Terrorism." Social Forces. 84(4):2027-2046. 2. Crenshaw, Edward M. and Kristopher K. Robison . 2006. “Globalization and the Digital Divide: The Roles of Structural Conduciveness and Global Connection in Internet Diffusion.” Social Science Quarterly. 87(1): 191-207. 3. Crenshaw, Edward M. and Kristopher K. Robison. 2006. “Jump Starting the Internet Revolution: How Global Connections Help the Diffusion of the Internet.” Journal of the Association of Information Systems. Special Issue on the Digital Divide. 7(1): 3. 4. Robison, Kristopher K. and Edward M. Crenshaw. 2002. “Cyber-Space and Post- Industrial Transformations: A Cross-National Analysis of Internet Development.” Social Science Research 31(3): 334-363. 5. Crenshaw, Edward M. and Kristopher K. Robison 2000. “Diffusion and the Digital Divide” China’s Wired. 4(11). vi 6. Crenshaw, Edward M., Paxton, Pamela, Robison, Kristopher K., Morishima, Rumi. 2004. Westernization Comparative Panel Dataset, 1975-1995. Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. www.icpsr.umich.edu 7. Paxton, Pamela, Crenshaw, Edward M., Morishima, Rumi, Robison, Kristopher K.. 2004. Globalization Comparative Panel Dataset, 1975-1995. Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. www.icpsr.umich.edu FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Sociology Topics of Interest: International Conflict, Terrorism, International Development vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract............................................................................................................................... ii Dedications ........................................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... v Vita..................................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures................................................................................................................... xii 1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 1 The Current Study................................................................................................. 18 What is Terrorism? ............................................................................................... 19 Definitions............................................................................................................. 22 Operationalization................................................................................................. 26 Trends in Terrorism .............................................................................................. 35 Empirically Known Causes of Terrorism ............................................................. 43 Empirically Known Consequences of Terrorism.................................................. 50 2. Terrorism, Crisis And Socio-Political Change ............................................................. 52 Terrorism, Civil Society and Social-Psychology.................................................. 53 Terrorism and the War Against Civilians ............................................................. 58 Terrorism and Intra-State Dynamics..................................................................... 63 Terrorism and the Crisis of Legitimacy................................................................ 64 Terrorism and Political Change ............................................................................ 73 Generic Hypotheses .............................................................................................. 80 3. Research Design and Data ............................................................................................ 83 Data....................................................................................................................... 85 Dependent Variables............................................................................................. 87 Main Independent Variables................................................................................. 88 viii 4. Terrorism and State Terror............................................................................................ 91 Research Design.................................................................................................. 111 Results................................................................................................................. 117 5. Terrorism, Crisis and Adverse Regime Change ......................................................... 131 The Connection between Civil Violence and Coup D'Etats ............................... 134 Data and Methods ............................................................................................... 147 Results................................................................................................................. 148 6. Terrorism and the Escalation of Violence: Civil War ............................................... 162 The Foundations of Civil War ............................................................................ 164 What Differentiates
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