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Exogenous Shocks and Political Unrest

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Exogenous Shocks and Political Unrest University of Central Florida STARS Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 2019 Exogenous Shocks and Political Unrest Didara Nurmanova University of Central Florida, [email protected] Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons Find similar works at: https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd University of Central Florida Libraries http://library.ucf.edu This Doctoral Dissertation (Open Access) is brought to you for free and open access by STARS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019 by an authorized administrator of STARS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STARS Citation Nurmanova, Didara, "Exogenous Shocks and Political Unrest" (2019). Electronic Theses and Dissertations, 2004-2019. 6355. https://stars.library.ucf.edu/etd/6355 EXOGENOUS SHOCKS AND POLITICAL UNREST by DIDARA NURMANOVA M.I.A. Columbia University, 2003 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the College of Sciences at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2019 Major Professor: Güneş Murat Tezcür ©2019 Didara Nurmanova ii ABSTRACT This dissertation explores the role of exogenous shocks such as economic shocks and natural disasters in producing political unrest in the form of anti-government protests and ethnic riots. It is integrated by three articles, each covering a different topic. The first article argues that economic shocks play a crucial role in protest mobilization in rentier states conditional on weaker repressive capacity or higher taxation. Empirically, it conducts a cross-national study of high-resource dependent states in the period of 1995-2014. The second article contends that there is a variation in a degree to which a country’s regions are exposed to economic shocks. A higher regional exposure to economic shocks is argued to increase the likelihood of regional anti-government protest at in competitive autocracies. The argument is tested in a subnational analysis of Russia using original dataset of regional anti-government protest and regional economic data in the period of 2007-2015. The third article develops a theory of natural disasters and ethnic riots. It argues that climate-induced meteorological disasters increase chances of ethnic riots because of declined state capacity that creates uncertainty about enforcement of existing ethnic contracts, and feelings of uncertainty result in strong group categorization, stereotyping and polarization. The argument is tested in a subnational study of Hindu-Muslim riots in Indian states in the period of 1951-2015. The results of the studies in this dissertation offer three key findings: (1) higher resource rents lower protest likelihood in autocratic rentier states with higher repressive capacity; (2) regional unemployment is a strong predictor of anti-government protest; (3) natural disasters in the form of precipitation and temperature anomalies increase chances of ethnic riots. The findings suggest a conclusion that exogenous shocks are important predictors of anti-government protest and ethnic riots. iii I dedicate this dissertation to the memory of my grandmother, Ulbosyn Abilova. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... ix INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................1 ARTICLE 1: ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTEST IN RESOURCE-DEPENDENT STATES ............................................................................................6 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................6 Literature Review .......................................................................................................................10 Theory and Hypotheses ..............................................................................................................14 Research Design .........................................................................................................................22 Empirical Results .......................................................................................................................30 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................43 ARTICLE 2: ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTEST MOBILIZATION IN COMPETITIVE AUTOCRACIES: THE CASE OF RUSSIA ..................45 Introduction ................................................................................................................................45 Literature Review .......................................................................................................................49 Theory and Hypotheses ..............................................................................................................52 Research Design .........................................................................................................................64 Empirical Results .......................................................................................................................70 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................80 ARTICLE 3: NATURAL DISASTERS AND ETHNIC VIOLENCE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF HINDU-MUSLIM RIOTS IN INDIA .....................................................................................83 Introduction ................................................................................................................................83 Literature Review .......................................................................................................................86 Theory and Hypotheses ..............................................................................................................95 Research Design .......................................................................................................................101 Empirical Results .....................................................................................................................105 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................114 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................116 APPENDIX A: POLITICAL TERROR SCALE LEVELS .........................................................119 v APPENDIX B: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH RESOURCE RENTS AND NET OIL EXPORTS AS % OF GDP CONDITIONAL TO REPRESSIVE CAPACITY IN RENTIER DEMOCRACIES, 1995-2014......................................................................................................121 APPENDIX C: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH RESOURCE RENTS AND NET OIL EXPORTS AS % OF GDP CONDITIONAL TO TAX INCREASES IN RENTIER AUTOCRACIES, 1995-2014 ......................................................................................................123 APPENDIX D: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH RESOURCE RENTS AND NET OIL EXPORTS AS % OF GDP CONDITIONAL TO REPRESSIVE CAPACITY IN RENTIER HYRID REGIMES, 1995-2014 (AT 3% THRESHOLD FOR RESOURCE RENTS) ..............125 APPENDIX E: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH RESOURCE RENTS AND NET OIL EXPORTS AS % OF GDP CONDITIONAL TO REPRESSIVE CAPACITY IN RENTIER AUTOCRACIES, 1995-2014 (AT 3% THRESHOLD FOR RESOURCE RENTS) ..................127 APPENDIX F: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH RESOURCE RENTS AND NET OIL EXPORTS AS % OF GDP CONDITIONAL TO REPRESSIVE CAPACITY IN RENTIER DEMOCRACIES, 1995-2014 (AT 3% THRESHOLD FOR RESOURCE RENTS) .................129 APPENDIX G: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH RESOURCE RENTS AND NET OIL EXPORTS AS % OF GDP, AND TAXES AS % OF GDP IN RENTIER HYBRID REGIMES, 1995-2014 (AT 3% THRESHOLD FOR RESOURCE RENTS) ................................................131 APPENDIX H: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH OIL PRICES CONDITIONAL TO REPRESSIVE CAPACITY IN RENTIER HYBRID REGIME STATES AND RENTIER AUTOCRACIES, 1995-2014 ......................................................................................................133 APPENDIX I: PREDICTING PROTEST WITH OIL PRICES CONDITIONAL TO TAXES/GDP IN RENTIER HYBRID REGIME STATES AND RENTIER DEMOCRACIES, 1995-2014 ....................................................................................................................................135 APPENDIX J: ECONOMIC DISTRICTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION .......................137 APPENDIX K: ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTEST, 2007-2015. NEGATIVE BINOMIAL ANALYSIS USING THE SECOND ESTIMATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.........................................................................................................139 APPENDIX L: ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTEST, 2007-2015. NEGATIVE BINOMIAL ANALYSIS USING TIME LAGS AND THE SECOND ESTIMATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ..................................................................................................141 APPENDIX M: LOGIT ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTEST, 2007-2015 .................................................................................................................143
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