Nber Working Paper Series Commodity Booms and Busts
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES COMMODITY BOOMS AND BUSTS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Thomas Drechsel Silvana Tenreyro Working Paper 23716 http://www.nber.org/papers/w23716 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 August 2017 We would like to thank Juan Antolin-Diaz, Neele Balke, Alberto Cavallo, Gianluca Benigno, Francesco Caselli, Wouter Den Haan, Martin Ellison, Andrea Fererro, Per Krusell, Tommaso Monacelli, Ivan Petrella, Ricardo Reis, and seminar participants at the NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017, the Workshop in International Economics at Oxford University, and LSE for useful comments and conversations. For superb research assistace, we would like to thank Piero Fortino and Sun Rui. Tenreyro acknowledges support from ERC Consolidator Grant MACROTRADE-Research on Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Trade. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2017 by Thomas Drechsel and Silvana Tenreyro. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies Thomas Drechsel and Silvana Tenreyro NBER Working Paper No. 23716 August 2017 JEL No. E13,E32,F41,F43,O11,O16 ABSTRACT Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on commodity exports, are prone to highly disruptive economic cycles. This paper proposes a small open economy model for a net commodity exporter to quantitatively study the triggers of these cycles.
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