World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Contents

Foreword 3 Introducing the World Internal Security and Police Index

Executive Summary 4 Highlights 5 Map and Results Table 6 Peace and Internal Security 7 The Index 8

Results 13 Trends in Internal Security and Policing 28 Results and Trends by Domain: Capacity 31 Results and Trends by Domain: Process and Legitimacy 36 Results and Trends by Domain: Outcomes 40

Appendix A: Full Results Table 45

Appendix B: Methodology 49

Appendix C: Bibliography 53 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Foreword Introducing the World Internal Security and Police Index

The International Police Science About IPSA security services that establish security Association (IPSA) is proud to present the within society and achieve safety of its first iteration of the World Internal Security IPSA is a non-profit organisation dealing members. WISPI focuses on both effective and Police Index (WISPI). The WISPI adds with police sciences. IPSA is registered rendering of security services and the to the relatively few indices dealing with in New Jersey State, USA. The key outcome of rendered services. WISPI is peace at the global level, such as the aim of IPSA is to study and promote considered the first international index Global Peace Index (GPI) and the Fragile police sciences with a view to boosting to measure indicators of internal security States Index (FSI). quality of security performance. IPSA is worldwide; rank countries according to open for all individuals and companies their ability to provide security services Most of the aforementioned indices only concerned with security science and and boost security performance in look at results and outputs like homicide, law enforcement. IPSA has three general. WISPI was conceptualised and terrorism, and violent crime. They do not key projects: The exchange of police championed by the founder of IPSA and measure the ability of security bodies to knowledge through holding of regular developed independently by the Institute render security services. To date there has conferences, the transfer of knowledge for Economics and Peace (IEP) for IPSA. not been a composite index that measures through the promulgation and translation This Index would not have been possible internal security. The WISPI takes a holistic of research into many languages, and without the approval of my institution perspective towards security, covering the lastly the recognition and awarding of and colleagues. I would like to express general public’s perception of the police excellence in the security field, via the my sincere gratitude to the Sharjah and security as well as measuring the level IPSA security award. The award has three Police, for their support and for allowing of safety provided and the forces needed categories: police practices and society, us to complete the development of to provide that level of security. innovation and creativity in the security the World Internal Security and Police field, research on policing and promotion The WISPI adopts a wide range of Index (WISPI). Also, I am grateful to our of security performance. For further qualitative and quantitative data in order team for exemplary professionalism and information, visit www.ipsa-police.org to classify countries’ levels of internal encouragement. security. It measures the ability of Why is WISPI unique? security institutions to maintain security, the effectiveness of those services, the As the world becomes increasingly data- public’s trust in rendered services, and driven, international organisations such police operations and activities. The as the UN and national governments results of the Index provide a unique rely on indices issued by internationally Professor Mamdooh perspective on internal security. The WISPI recognised organisations in order to Abdelmottlep (PhD, JD) stands apart from other measures of understand the factors that are driving Professor of Criminal Justice peacefulness and violence by providing an global policy issues. WISPI has been Management & Security Expert assessment of internal security outcomes, created to go beyond the existing Founder & Executive Chairman general public’s perception of quality and measures of violence or peace, as an of International Police Science the ability of police to respond to future international index measuring the ability Association (IPSA) internal security issues. of police institutions worldwide to render

1 1) Executive summary terrorist organisations andinsurgencies. are under-resourced, andstretched by security providers insub-Saharan Africa security onaverage. issues Many state Saharan Africa having internal themost to internal securitywithsub- issues, levelthe highest ofpoliceresponsiveness the USA) andEurope are theareas with Regionally, NorthAmerica(Canada and not included intheIndex. involved inprotracted internal conflictare aswell countries currentlydata, 21st century. Countrieswithinsufficient serious threats to internal security inthe corruption, andterrorism allremain Migration, regional contagion,civilunrest, significantly, butserious threats remain. to internal security have increased of thenation-state. Resources devoted has becomethepredominant concern become less common,internal security and aswars between nations have external security concerns have waned, The report reinforces the fact that as Index have changed inthemodern era. examining howthe16indicators inthe at internal securityandtrends, issues by the above thisreport fourdomains, looks In addition to ranking countries across 127 internal security. currentdomain assesses threats to in afavourable Finally, light. theoutcomes security providers, particularly thepolice, is ameasure ofwhetherthepublicview effective manner. The legitimacy domain devoted to internal security are usedinan domain looks at whethertheresources devotes to internal security. Theprocess examines theresources that anation and outcomes. Thecapacity domain capacity,security: process, legitimacy, The WISPI looks atofinternal fourdomains using16indicators.domains, countries,across in127 issues four providers to address internal security ability ofthepoliceandothersecurity and Peace (IEP).TheIndex measures the developed by theInstitute forEconomics and (IPSA), Police ScienceAssociation Police andtheInternational Department (WISPI), commissionedby theSharjah Internal Security andPolice Index This isthefirst editionofthe World issues oftenissues cometo theforefront. crucial momentat whichinternal security from onegovernment typeto another isa democratic elements). Thetransition (which have bothauthoritarian and regimes score better thanhybrid regimes Index scores onaverage, butauthoritarian and flawed democracies have thehighest security challenges. Full democracies levels inresponding ofsuccess to internal Different government have types varying ofregionalshowing fewsigns contagion. have proven to beremarkably stable, severalturmoil, Middle Eastern countries State inIraq andSyria this (ISIS).Despite of theterrorist organisation the Islamic Arab Spring, andtherise inSyria, civilwar the lastdecade, withtheevents ofthe serious internal security threats arise over North Africa (MENA)region hasseen between countries.TheMiddle Eastand regionsOther have muchmore variation last 60years. more crucialnowthanat any pointinthe to internal security threats isarguably Thus,the security serviceresponse2014. people beingkilled interrorist attacks in last calendar year, withover 32,000 terrorism increased 80percentinthe the endofWorld from War II. Deaths is nowhigherthanat any pointsince internally displaced people intheworld the world. Thenumberofrefugees and Syria andIraq continueto befeltaround flow oneffects from internal conflictsin future.serious issueinthenear The Internal security islikely to remain a

the forefront. often come to security issues at which internal crucial moment to another is a government type onefrom The transition World Internal SecurityandPolice Index 2016

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Highlights > Terrorism remains one of the greatest threats to internal security. Terrorism has increased dramatically over the last three years, with more than 62,000 people being killed in terrorist attacks between 2012 and 2014. The biggest rise in the last year occurred in Nigeria, the worst performing country on the WISPI.

> Singapore performed best > Nigeria performed worst > North America and Europe on the Index, followed by on the Index, followed by were the two regions with Finland, and then Denmark. the Democratic Republic of the best average WISPI There were only four non- the Congo, Kenya, Uganda, scores. Sub-Saharan Africa European countries in the and Pakistan. However, had the worst average top 20. The United Arab countries with protracted score, followed by South Emirates was the highest civil conflicts are not Asia and then Central ranked country from the eligible for the Index. America and the Caribbean. Middle East and North African (MENA) region, and ranked 29th overall.

> Despite the turmoil in > Countries with smaller > Full democracies had the the Middle East, many populations performed best average score on the Middle Eastern countries better on the Index than Index, followed by flawed performed well on the larger ones. Only one democracies. Authoritarian Index. The MENA region country in the top ten had a regimes outperform hybrid had the fourth best average population greater than 25 regimes, despite the fact that regional score of the nine million, and conversely only the country with the best regions in the Index. one country in the bottom score in the Index (Singapore) ten had a population of less is a hybrid regime. than 25 million.

> Authoritarian regimes in > The resources devoted to > Corruption has been sub-Saharan Africa had policing and the criminal increasing around the globe smaller police forces and justice system have in the last 20 years. In many militaries than their Middle increased dramatically over countries, bribe payments Eastern counterparts. the past 50 years. In the US, to the police are still Overall, sub-Saharan GDP per capita increased commonplace. The Index African countries had the 191 per cent from 1961 to average for bribe payments lowest capacity scores of 2015 (when measured in to police was 30 per cent, any region. constant 2005 US dollars). with more than 50 per cent Over the same period, of respondents admitting to local, state, and federal having paid a bribe to police government spending on in 33 of the 127 countries in the police increased 484 the Index. per cent.

3 Map andResultsTable World Internal SecurityandPolice Index 2016

< Low WISPI Score High WISPI Score > 4 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Peace and Internal Security

The aim of the WISPI is to, firstly, measure the highest priority for security providing security provider performance across the institutions like the police and the four domains of internal security: capacity, military. Of course, there are trade-offs process, legitimacy and outcomes. involved in all forms of government Secondly, to see how these domains relate spending, and in a perfect world there to each other and finally to track trends in would be no need for any type of security these domains over time, and to inform forces whatsoever. However, given the work of security providing agencies, the threats to internal security that researchers, and practitioners in the field almost every government faces, some of peace and conflict studies, criminology, level of security spending is not only and police studies. understandable, but also necessary for maintaining and promoting peace. IEP has been studying security, conflict and the drivers of peacefulness since IEP’s existing research suggests that 2007. The Global Peace Index, which in the long run, promoting Positive will have its tenth iteration released in Peace is the best, most reliable, and 2016, is the world’s leading measure of most consistent method of ensuring peacefulness, and IEP has also released negative peace. However, in the short national peace indices, the Global run strong security institutions are Terrorism Index, and various other reports needed to prevent conflict, to allow for that examine the drivers of peace and its fast recovery after conflicts break out, economic benefits. and to promote stable environments in which the development of the attitudes, Central to IEP’s work has been an institutions, and structures associated understanding that peacefulness can with peaceful environments is a feasible be divided into two aspects: Negative goal. In order to do this, security forces Peace, which is the absence of violence need to have the necessary capacity to and the fear of violence, and Positive perform their job properly. They need to Peace, which consists of the attitudes, have effective methods and techniques institutions, and structures which support of policing and conflict resolution. They peaceful societies. These two aspects are need to be legitimate in the eyes of their linked both statistically and theoretically. own citizens. And they need to be able Societies with higher levels of Positive to reduce threats to internal security like Peace have lower levels of interpersonal violent crime, homicide, terrorism, and violence and are less likely to fall into the fear of violence. conflict. Conversely, when conflict does break out, it can degrade or destroy the institutions and structures which drive Positive Peace, which can in turn lead to further violence and destruction. Changes in Negative and Positive Peace feedback upon each other in either a virtuous or vicious cycle of falling or rising violence.

Given the huge costs associated with deteriorations in peacefulness, preventing serious threats to internal and external security should be (and is) one of the highest priorities for governments, and

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The Index

While ‘internal security’ is commonly policing and enforcing internal security is As mentioned above, a broader definition conceptualised in terms of conflict their primary objective, and they are likely of internal security includes a large between the state and insurgency groups to be the first responders to violence and number of concepts that are partially within a nation’s borders, a broader instability in times of social upheaval. measured by tens if not hundreds of definition encompasses any factor, existing indicators, as well as many well- process, or shock that destabilises What is the World established composite indices. Given or threatens the state. This broader Internal Security this broader definition, it is unlikely that definition allows for the inclusion of not and Police Index? a single index could adequately measure only traditional internal security issues The World Internal Security and Police internal security in a meaningful way. like insurgency, terrorism, and civil Index (WISPI) should not be thought Whilst it might be possible to incorporate unrest, but also other areas of internal of as a measure of the level of ‘internal all the areas by using more abstract violence like violent crime, organised security’ at the country level. Rather, indicators that look at the functioning crime, riots, and citizen perceptions of the Index aims to measure the ability of government processes, this would safety, governance issues (particularly of the security apparatus within a dramatically increase the overlap between state effectiveness and corruption), country to respond to internal security this Index and other indices that measure and exogenous shocks such as natural challenges, both now and in the future. the rule of law. disasters, climate change, and increased For the purposes of the Index, ‘security migration flows. In short, internal security apparatus’ predominantly refers to the How is the Index Structured? as measured by the WISPI is the ability of police, although a number of indicators police to realise security within society also touch upon the ability of the military, Accurately measuring and tracking how and safety of its members. the judicial system, and the private sector well the security apparatus in a country As the state has a monopoly on legitimate to address internal security issues. This can respond to internal security concerns violence, responsibility for upholding means that a country that currently does is not just a matter of totalling up existing and maintaining internal security falls not have many internal security issues, police financial resources and human upon those state agencies to whom or relies upon tacit rather than explicit resources, nor is it only an exercise in the privilege of legitimate force is enforcement, may have a worse rank than comparing crime stats. A country with extended. The police, judicial, criminal a country that has more issues but has high numbers of police officers many justice, and intelligence services are also devoted more police resources to not deploy these officers effectively, may the main institutions that deal with keeping them contained. not have a smoothly functioning criminal internal security, although in exceptional The purpose of a composite index is to justice system to adequately capitalise circumstances, the armed forces may also simplify a complex or abstract concept on effective policing, and may act in an play a role. Furthermore, in most societies into a single quantitative measure overly aggressive manner that actually internal security is also informally or (often with subcomponents) in order to increases societal tension. Conversely, a tacitly enforced by collection of social compare performance across countries country with low crime rates and effective attitudes, informal institutions, and or states, and to track improvements processes may not have enough police structures that combine to promote social or deteriorations over time. In order for officers or police resources to deal with stability. However, as the police (and an index to be useful, it must have a a serious shock like a series of terrorist similar institutions) are largely responsible clear concept and a unit of account (for attacks, a huge natural disaster, rioting, for enforcing the state’s monopoly on example, a country, state, or city) that will or a humanitarian crisis and consequent legitimate internal violence, the task of lead to meaningful comparisons. refugee movements.

The Index aims to measure the ability of the security apparatus within a country to respond to internal security challenges, both now and in the future.

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To cover all of these issues related to Table 01: World Internal Security and Police Index, Domains and Indicators internal security, the WISPI consists of 16 indicators across four different domains: Domain Indicator Definition Source capacity, effectiveness, legitimacy, and outcomes. The full list of indicators across Police Number of Police and UNODC - Crime Trends Internal Security Officers Survey the four domains is shown in Table 1. per 100,000 people There are many potential indicators of Armed Forces Number of Armed Service IISS - Military Balance police operations or internal security Personnel per 100,000 that were not included in the Index. people

Many potential good sources did not Private Security Number of Private Security Small Arms Survey have enough data, or suffered from Capacity Contractors per 100,000 people comparability issues across countries, or were general measures of internal security Prison Capacity Ratio of Prisoners to World Prison Official Prison Capacity Population Project or the rule of law that were not related to the operations of security providers. For a Corruption Control of Corruption WB - World Governance full discussion of the indicators that were Indicators included, as well as a summary of the data Effectiveness Criminal Justice World Justice Project collection and imputations issues, see the effectiveness, impartial, respects rights methodology in Appendix B. Bribe Payments % of Respondents who Global Corruption to Police Paid a Bribe to a Police Barometer In keeping with the purpose of the Index Process Officer in the Past Year as a measure of police responses to Underreporting Ratio of Police Reported IEP Analysis internal security issues, every indicator Thefts to Survey Reported that was chosen for the final Index can be Thefts influenced by changes in the role, funding, or operations of security providers Due Process Due process of law and World Justice Project rights of the accused (almost always the police, but sometimes Confidence % of Respondents who Gallup World Poll the military, private sector, or broader in Police have Confidence in Their criminal justice system). Each domain and Local Police indicator adds a piece of information that Public Use, Government officials in the World Justice Project Private Gain police and the military do when combined into a single composite not use public office for measure gives the fullest picture of police Legitimacy private gain response to internal security. Political Terror Use of Force by Political Terror Scale Government Against Domain 1: Capacity Its Own Citizens

The purpose of the capacity domain is Homicide Number of Intentional UNODC - Crime Trends Homicides per 100,000 Survey to assess whether the level of resources people devoted to internal security in a country Violent Crime % Assaulted or mugged in Gallup World Poll are sufficient to deal with existing internal the Last Year security issues, and whether these Terrorism Composite measure of Global Terrorism Index

Outcomes deaths, injuries, and resources are adequate to deal with any incidents of terrorism unexpected outbreak of civil unrest. To Public Safety Perceptions of safety Gallup World Poll effectively deal with violent crime and Perceptions walking alone at night civil unrest, the police must have enough resources to deal with crime on a day to day basis, enough presence to act as a deterrent for criminal activity and a

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signifier of a stable rule of law, enough general governance environment suffers Domain 3: Legitimacy support from the military and private from high levels of corruption, security sector in the event of extreme social measures and initiatives are likely to be The purpose of the legitimacy domain breakdown, and adequate infrastructure less effective. If the criminal justice system is to measure whether the police and to allow for effective operations. Each in particular is corrupt, police operations security services act in the best interest of the country and its citizens, measured of the four indicators in the domain will almost certainly be less effective, by both expert assessment and by citizen addresses one of these factors. creating incentives for suboptimal police perceptions. It is possible for a country The scoring system for the capacity performance. Previous research by IEP has to have both adequate police resources domain is not solely concerned with found that perceptions of corruption in and an effective criminal justice system, comparing overall levels of police the police and judicial systems is closely but if security providers are not seen as numbers and resources between correlated with high levels of crime and legitimate then tensions between citizens countries. Beyond a certain point, high levels of civil unrest. Finally, the and the police can fester or even increase increasing police numbers does little to presence of high levels of underreporting to the point that civil unrest turns into impact the level of crime within a country, is indicative of an inefficient police system, rioting or prolonged disorder and distrust of the state.

Due process captures whether or not The presence of high levels of those in the criminal justice system are treated justly or adequately, as opposed underreporting is indicative of to effectively. Confidence in local police an inefficient police system, as it captures whether or not citizens feel shows that citizens do not trust that that they can trust police with everyday policing tasks, whist the private gain involving the police will lead to a indicator provides an expert assessment positive outcome. of police and military legitimacy at the national level, which survey data alone would not be able to capture. Lastly, the political terror indicator measures and the existence of excess military as it shows that citizens do not trust that whether the state suppresses dissent by capacity may even act as an incentive involving the police will lead to a positive using excessive force and terror tactics for the unnecessary use of force in some outcome, even if the police are generally against its own people. situations. Similarly, the appropriate seen as trustworthy or incorruptible. The scoring system for the legitimacy level of policing will always be context The scoring system for the effectiveness domain is similar to that for the process specific; more police resources are domain, in that it is a measure of needed in times of crisis than in relatively domain is not absolute. It would be security force legitimacy against the best calm periods. Finally, a low score in the impossible for the police to effectively performing police systems globally. No capacity domain does not necessarily deal with every crime, and it is unlikely state that tolerates unlimited dissent mean that a country is at risk of suffering that every crime would be reported to the could ever be seen as being perfectly from unexpected civil unrest, only that police even if they were perfectly trusted legitimate, and no citizenry would ever in the case of some external shock or and had infinite resources. Similarly, have the full amount of information disturbance, the criminal justice system the presence of police corruption or required to properly assess the would have the optimal level of resources petty corruption in the governance legitimacy of its security forces. However, to respond appropriately. system at large may actually work as an a high score on the legitimacy domain informal mechanism for increasing police Domain 2: Effectiveness is a good indication that civil unrest responsiveness in countries where the in a country is unlikely to be triggered The purpose of the effectiveness domain police are under-resourced. Thus, the by dissatisfaction with security forces, is to measure how well police and criminal score in the effectiveness domain should whereas a low score indicates that justice capacity is used. Having enough be thought of as a measure of how close such dissatisfaction is a significant risk financial and material resources is not in a police system is to the best performing factor, even where security forces are itself a guarantee of internal security. If the and most effective police systems globally. adequately resourced and effective.

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Figure 01: Scatterplot matrix of the four WISPI domains The process and legitimacy domains are closely linked. Countries with good processes are more likely to be legitimate, and also more likely to have better internal security outcomes.

00.5 1 00.5 1 00.5 1 00.5 1

1 1

0.5 0.5

Capacity 0 0

1 1

0.5 0.5

Process 0 0

1 1

0.5 0.5

0 Legitimacy 0

1 1

0.5 0.5

0 Outcomes 0

00.5 100.51 00.5 100.51

Domain 4: Outcomes even if levels of police recorded crime the threat to internal security in a linear are low, public fears may still be high, fashion. Terrorist attacks receive relatively The purpose of the outcomes domain which indicates that there is some threat more attention when they are sporadic is to measure the size of existing threats to internal security which is not being and unpredictable, and similarly once to internal security, as they stand at the adequately dealt with by security forces. violent crime reaches a certain point, current time. High levels of violent crime citizen and police behaviour begins to A low score on the outcomes domain are indicative of a lack of police control shift in order to reduce the likelihood of suggests that existing levels of internal over public spaces. A homicide rate being a victim of violent crime. violence and conflict pose a serious threat above the global average is not only an to the state and are not adequately being indication of general social breakdown and Relationship dealt with by security forces, whilst a Between the Domains police ineffectiveness, but also usually a high score suggests that current levels of proxy for some underlying disturbance internal violence are not a serious threat Every composite index will have a trade- or conflict such as unchecked organized to internal security and public order, off between robustness and uniqueness. crime that threatens internal security. even if the police are under-resourced, If the indicators and domains of an index Whilst terrorism is uncommon, it provides ineffective, and seen as illegitimate. As are strongly correlated, then the index a unique threat to internal security as with the capacity domain, the scoring is likely to be robust, meaning that the terrorist attacks destabilize public life and system for the outcomes domain choice of weights for the domains will change citizen behaviour and attitudes in recognises that the presence of violence not greatly impact the final rankings ways unlike other forms of violence. Finally, beyond a certain point does not add to of the index. This means that the index

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This report divides government types into four categories, taken from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index: Full Democracies, Flawed Democracies, Hybrid Regimes and Authoritarian Regimes.

is more objective, and less a product forces. The connection between capacity Examining internal security issues by of normative, qualitative decisions. and outcomes is slightly stronger government type is revealing because However, an index that is perfectly robust (r=0.41), suggesting that the presence one of the most destabilising factors is unlikely to be a true measure of some of sufficient security force capacity is that leads to reduced internal security is composite, unobserved variable, as the sometimes enough to produce good regime change, or regime transition from rankings would be exactly the same if all internal security outcomes. more authoritarian forms of governance the indicators bar one were removed. By to democracy, or vice versa. As the The process and legitimacy domains have contrast, an index that is unique is more primary function of most security forces the strongest correlation with each other likely to properly capture the underlying is the maintenance of order, the potential (r=0.91). Countries with more effective phenomenon that the index aims to disruption that stems from regime change security force processes, with lower measure, but is also much more sensitive or governance change can lead to security levels of corruption and underreporting, to the choice of weights and indicators, forces opposing, frustrating, disrupting, are much more likely to be seen as which places a greater importance on or even outright preventing democratic legitimate by both citizens and experts. the qualitative aspects of index design. reform. Regime or governance change is Both process and legitimacy are also As illustrated in Figure 1, each of the four perhaps the most powerful example in the closely linked with outcomes (r=0.66 and WISPI domains correlates at a statistically modern world of an event which ripples significant level (p <0.05) with the other r=0.75 respectively). throughout the entirety of society, with domains, although some of the domains the potential for widespread violence and Geographical Regions are much more closely linked than others. and Government Types instability to take hold. The capacity domain has the weakest Thus, examining the Index results and correlation with the other domains. It Much of the analysis in this report looks at general trends in internal security by is most weakly correlated against the results not only for individual countries or governance type helps to illustrate how legitimacy domain (r=0.36), followed by the average Index score, but also by region police forces in some countries rely on the process domain (r=0.41) Countries and government type. capacity at the expense of legitimacy with the lowest process scores are much Regional analysis can highlight the and processes, and how this can lead more likely to have either very high or very way in which internal security issues to more instability in the long run. This low capacity scores. This reflects either an are geographically distributed, and report divides government types into four overreliance on security forces to promote how certain factors that contribute to categories, taken from the Economist internal security at the expense of insecurity can spread beyond the borders Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index: Full processes and legitimacy, or the absence of one country and into neighbouring Democracies, Flawed Democracies, Hybrid of sufficient institutional resources and countries. The existence of regional Regimes, and Authoritarian Regimes. strength to allow security forces to scoring clusters suggests that there are operate in an effective manner. geographical or cultural factors that The connection between capacity and render ineffective security force strategies legitimacy is very similar; a lack of that work in other regions or countries. capacity leads to a lack of trust in the Conversely, if a region has a wide range of ability of police, but too much can lead scores across indicators and domains, this to an overreliance on force which may suggests that regional or cultural factors result in state repression of citizens, are less likely to play a significant role with leading to a lack of trust in security regards to internal security issues.

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Highlights > High levels of police, armed forces and private security was not a guarantee of good internal security outcomes. Most of the best performing countries on the Index had average capacity scores.

> However, a lack of security > The Asia-Pacific and sub- service capacity was a Saharan African Regions good predictor of poor had the most variation internal security outcomes. between countries. Central The worst performing America and the Caribbean, countries on the Index and North America had the tend to have insufficient lowest variance. numbers of police, not enough private security, and overcrowded prisons.

> Countries with smaller > Full democracies had populations perform better the best average Index on the Index. The average scores, followed by flawed population of a top ten democracies. However, country was just under authoritarian regimes 17 million, compared to scored better on average 84 million for a bottom than hybrid regimes. ten country.

The best performing countries on the WISPI had excellent process, legitimacy, and outcomes scores, and average or slightly above average capacity scores. Only two countries (Singapore and Australia) ranked in the top ten countries had a top 50 capacity score. Conversely, the worst performing countries in the Index perform poorly across all four domains. This suggests that while the lack of security service capacity usually leads to poor internal security outcomes, beyond a certain level additional security service capacity does not necessarily lead to better processes, increased legitimacy, or better outcomes.

There is a weak but statistically significant correlation between the size of a country’s population and its Index score (r=-0.33), as shown in Figure 2 (overleaf). Countries with smaller populations tend to have better security service responses to internal security challenges.

The ten best performing countries have an average population of just under 17 million, whereas the ten worst performing countries have an average population of over 84 million. Only three countries in the bottom 20 have a population of less than ten million people. In general, larger populations mean that coordination problems between security services are increased, processes are less likely to scale up effectively, and larger urban populations

Results are usually associated with increased homicide, violent crime, and fear of violence.

Regionally, the best performing areas were North America, Europe, and the Asia- Pacific Region, with the worst performing regions being sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central America and the Caribbean. However, there was a great deal of variation within regions, as shown in Figure 3. The two regions with the greatest variation are

2) Asia- Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. The Asia-Pacific region had the third highest

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Sub-Saharan Africa is home regional score overall, as well as the country with the best overall score to seven of the ten worst (Singapore), and three other countries performing countries. in the top 20 (Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea). However, the average Asia-Pacific score of 0.653 was well below the European and North America averages. The region is also home to several countries that had very poor internal security situations, most notably Figure 02: Overall Score vs Population Myanmar, which ranked 101st overall. Smaller countries tend to have better security force Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, and the responses to internal security issues (r = -0.33). Philippines also ranked in the bottom half of the Index. 9.5 -0.33 Sub-Saharan Africa is home to seven 9 of the ten worst performing countries, 8.5 with Nigeria, the Democratic Republic

8 of the Congo, Kenya, and Uganda all being ranked in the bottom five. 7.5 These four countries performed poorly 7 Log Population across all four domains. Perhaps the 6.5 most noticeable deficit in the poorly

6 performing sub-Saharan African countries was on the capacity indicator. 5.5 Sub-Saharan African countries have

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 police officer, armed forces, and Overall Score private security rates well below the global average, and an average prison occupancy rate of 166 per cent, well above the global average. However, there Figure 03: Index Overall Scores by Region (best, worst, average) are some sub-Saharan African countries Sub-Saharan Africa has the worst index scores on average, followed by the Central that perform well on the Index, most America and Carribean. The Asia-Pacific region has the greatest range of scores. noticeably Botswana, which ranked 47th, and Rwanda, which ranked 50th. Both North America Botswana and Rwanda perform strongly on the process and legitimacy domains, Europe with Botswana in particular having low

Pacific Asia- levels of reported bribe payments to police, and high levels of confidence in Middle East and North Africa police at the local level.

Russia and Eurasia At the domain level, there are large discrepancies between average scores South America across regions, as shown Figure 4. Central America and Caribbean Europe, North America, and the Asia- Pacific are the only regions where the South Asia capacity domain did not have the highest Sub-Saharan Africa average score, with all three having higher 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 outcomes scores on average. Asia-Pacific, Overall Score MENA, Russia and Eurasia, and South

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Asia all had similar domain score profiles: the Global Peace Index which show that and Armenia also being ranked in the high levels of capacity, weak processes, authoritarian regimes are more peaceful top 50 countries on the WISPI. However, average legitimacy, and above average than hybrid regimes. It is also consistent a number of hybrid regimes are also outcomes. In contrast, South America with the theory that political instability is ranked near the bottom of the Index, with and Central America and the Caribbean one of the greatest challenges to internal Uganda and Kenya being ranked 124th had very similar legitimacy and outcomes security, and that governments with and 125th respectively. On average, hybrid scores. This was largely due to high unstable or uncertain political processes regimes had roughly the same capacity average homicide rates, as well as poor are more likely to face severe internal as authoritarian regimes, but had lower perceptions of public safety. security issues than governments with effectiveness, lower legitimacy, and worse regime stability, even if these governments internal security outcomes. Figure 5 shows Index scores by are undemocratic. government type. Full democracies had Authoritarian regimes in the Middle East the highest average Index score, followed Hybrid regimes and authoritarian regimes and North Africa, and the Asia-Pacific by flawed democracies. Authoritarian had the greatest variance. Singapore, region score better than authoritarian regimes had less variation and a higher which is classified as a hybrid regime by regimes in sub-Saharan Africa. The five average Index score than hybrid regimes, the EIU, had the best overall Index score, worst performing authoritarian regimes which is consistent with findings from with Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, are all located in sub-Saharan Africa.

Figure 04: Domain Score by Region The best score for every region other than North America and Europe is on the capacity domain.

1

Capacity Process Legitimacy Outcomes 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 North America Asia-Pacific Russia and Eurasia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe Middle East and South America Central America North Africa and Caribbean

Figure 05: Index Overall Scores by Government Type (best, worst, average) Full Democracies have the best index scores on average. Authoritarian regimes have a higher average score than hybrid regimes

Full Democracy

Flawed Democracy

Authoritarian Regime

Hybrid Regime

0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Overall Score

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Geographical or cultural factors play The highest ranking country from the MENA region was the United Arab a relatively small role in determining Emirates, which ranked 29th on the Index. legitimacy and process effectiveness It scored highly on the capacity and outcomes domains, but only slightly above in authoritarian regimes, whereas average on the process and legitimacy capacity and outcomes are much domains. Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain are all also ranked amongst the top 50 more likely to be influenced by the countries on the WISPI. geopolitical environment, cultural Flawed democracies, hybrid regimes, factors, or informal institutions. and authoritarian regimes all had similar domain score profiles: high capacity, poor processes, weak legitimacy, and average outcomes. Authoritarian regimes Figure 06: Domain Score by Government Type had almost identical outcomes to flawed Full Democracies score better on every domain other than capacity. democracies, and better outcomes than hybrid regimes. Perceptions of public

0.90 safety are higher, and the average level Capacity Process Legitimacy Outcomes 0.80 of violent crime and homicide are lower, although terrorism is higher. 0.70

0.60 As shown in Figure 6, full democracies had

0.50 by far the highest average legitimacy score, with a much better due process score, 0.40 much higher levels of confidence in the 0.30 police (75.7 per cent compared to 64.7 per 0.20 cent in authoritarian regimes), and much 0.10 lower political terror. Crimes were much

0.00 more likely to be reported to the police, Full Democracy Flawed Democracy Authoritarian Regime Hybrid Regime and reported bribe payments to police were much lower, as was corruption.

Figure 7 shows that when looking at Figure 07: Scoring Range Between Best and Worst Regions, average scores across both government by Government Type and Domain type and region, one finding stands out. There is very little difference in process and legitimacy scores across The difference between the best scoring regions in authoritarian regimes. region and the worst scoring region was Capacity consistent across each government type Process and domain, with all government types Authoritarian Regime Legitimacy having large differences in capacity and Outcomes outcomes between regions. However, for authoritarian regimes, there was a strong Hybrid Regime consistency in legitimacy and process scores across regions. This suggests that geographical or cultural factors play Flawed Democracy a relatively small role in determining legitimacy and process effectiveness in authoritarian regimes, whereas capacity Full Democracy and outcomes are much more likely to be influenced by the geopolitical 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 environment, cultural factors, or Difference between best and worst scoring region informal institutions.

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Five best and worst performing countries

Table 2 shows the scores and ranks for the five best and worst performing countries on the WISPI. The Index ranks 127 countries, with countries currently suffering from protracted civil conflict automatically excluded from the Index, as well as countries with insufficient data coverage. This means that the five worst performing countries are not the countries which currently had the worst internal security situation, but rather the five countries not in outright conflict that had the lowest level of security provider responsiveness to internal security challenges.

Table 02: Five Best and Worst Performing Countries, Scores and Ranks

Country Overall Score Capacity Process Legitimacy Outcomes

↑ Five best performing countries

Singapore 0.898 1 0.897 21 0.829 8 0.903 4 0.963 1

Finland 0.864 2 0.674 80 0.922 2 0.919 1 0.893 9

Denmark 0.859 3 0.648 88 0.948 1 0.904 3 0.885 10

Austria 0.850 4 0.770 58 0.817 12 0.899 6 0.894 7

Germany 0.848 5 0.778 53 0.876 6 0.867 10 0.852 20

Five worst performing countries

Pakistan 0.349 123 0.729 66 0.239 116 0.173 127 0.348 121

Uganda 0.312 124 0.224 126 0.219 118 0.411 107 0.372 119

Kenya 0.298 125 0.214 127 0.180 125 0.322 123 0.456 107

Congo, DRC 0.272 126 0.440 115 0.195 122 0.227 126 0.268 124

Nigeria 0.255 127 0.416 119 0.156 127 0.264 124 0.226 127

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Five best performing countries

1. Singapore Figure 8: Singapore Domain Scores Singapore Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Singapore performed best on the WISPI, the top five of the Index. Eight per cent trust their local police force, the second and was the only country not classified of respondents in Singapore admitted to highest rate of any country in the Index. as a full democracy to feature in the top paying a bribe to a police officer in the Internal security has been a special ten. Singapore scored well on every Index last year, compared to one per cent in concern of the Singaporean government domain, with the best outcomes score, the Denmark and Finland, two per cent in since its independence in 1965. Singapore eighth best process score, and the fourth Germany and four per cent in Austria. suffered from race riots in 1964 (while best legitimacy score. Singapore was the Singapore had some of the lowest crime still a state of Malaysia) in which 36 only country other than Australia in the rates in the world, with a homicide rate people died, with similar riots breaking top ten that had a capacity score in the of just 0.2 per 100,000 in 2012. Only one out in 1969, leaving four dead. As such, top 50, and arguably the only country that per cent of Gallup World Poll respondents keeping the peace between different performed extremely well across every ethnic groups was at the forefront of in Singapore stated that they had been single indicator and domain in the Index. Singaporean governance in the 1960s. assaulted or mugged in the last year, the The Singaporean Internal Security Act Singapore had one of the highest police equal lowest rate in the world, and 91 per allows for preventative detention, the force and armed services rates in the cent of Singaporeans felt safe walking banning of subversive documents, and the world, partly due to a compulsory national alone at night, which was also the highest preservation of public security. Singapore service program that requires all male rate of any country in the Index. Singapore still faces several strong internal security citizens to perform two years of service has not had a recorded terrorist incident challenges, foremost of which is a shifting in the armed forces, police force, or civil since 1998, which is the earliest year that demographic structure and total fertility defence force upon turning 18. It is the comparable data is available for on the rate of 0.8, well below replacement levels. seventh least corrupt country in the world Global Terrorism Index. Unsurprisingly, according to the World Bank’s Control such low crime rates correspond with a of Corruption indicator, although bribe high level of trust in police. Ninety-three payments to the police were higher in per cent of Singaporean respondents to Singapore than in any other country in the Gallup Word Poll reported that they

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Eighty-five per cent of Finnish respondents to the Gallup World Poll reported that they have confidence in their local police, the tenth highest number in the world.

2. Finland Figure 9: Finland Domain Scores Finland Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Finland, the second ranking country on forces rate of 404 per 100,000 people, instance of terrorism since 1998, although the WISPI, was the highest ranked of the compared to the average of 384. there was a mass shooting in a school in five Nordic countries. All five ranked in 2007, when a gunman at a high school Finland performed particularly well on the top 15 of the Index, with an overall in Jokela killed eight people and injured the legitimacy and process domains. It 13 others. Finland’s homicide rate, while score of 0.863. Like the third ranked had the fifth lowest level of corruption, low by global standards, was noticeably country Denmark, Finland had excellent the best effectiveness indicator score, the higher than the rate in the other top five scores on the process, legitimacy, and equal third lowest level of bribe payments countries, with 1.6 homicides per 100,000 outcomes domains, but a below average to the police, and the fifth lowest level of people in Finland, compared to 0.8 in score on the capacity domain. Finland underreporting. Both citizens and experts Demark and Germany, 0.9 in Austria, and scored the best of any country on the have confidence in the police in Finland. 0.2 in Singapore. However, violent crime legitimacy domain with a score of 0.919, Eighty-five per cent of Finnish respondents was very low in Finland, with just two per the second highest process domain to the Gallup World Poll reported that they cent of respondents reporting that they score, and the ninth highest score on the have confidence in their local police, the had been assaulted or mugged in the last outcomes domain. tenth highest number in the world, and year. Perceptions of safety were also very Security provider capacity was below the World Justice Project rated Finland high in Finland, with 81 per cent of Finns the Index average in Finland, owing to as the second best country with regards reporting that they felt safe walking at the small size of its police force. There to police and military officials not using night in their local neighbourhood or city. were just 149 police officers per 100,000 their public office for private gain. State people in Finland, which was one of the violence against citizens is virtually non- lowest police force rates of any country existent, with Finland having scored the lowest level on the Political Terror Scale in the Index. The private security industry since 1988. was also relatively small in Finland, although its military had more personnel Violence and internal insecurity are rare than the Index average, with an armed in Finland. It has only had one recorded

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Five best performing countries

3. Denmark Figure 10: Denmark Domain Scores Denmark Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Denmark ranked third on the WISPI, was ranked as having the lowest level Internal security outcomes are generally has a very similar score profile to its of corruption in the world according to very good in Denmark, although the fellow Nordic country Finland with an the World Bank’s Control of Corruption country has suffered from increasing overall score of 0.859. Denmark scored indicator, and the third lowest level of fears about terrorism in recent years. In above average for three of the four Index bribes paid to the police according to February 2015, two shootings by the same domains, with the best process, the Transparency International’s Global man in Copenhagen saw two people killed third best legitimacy, and the tenth best Corruption Barometer. People in Denmark (along with the perpetrator), and five outcomes scores. However, Denmark had were also much more likely to report policeman wounded. Denmark had one a lower than average capacity score of thefts to the police, with Denmark’s of the lowest homicide rates in the world, 0.667, which gives it a ranking of 88th on underreporting rate being the third with 0.8 homicides per 100,000 people in the capacity domain. lowest in the world. Denmark’s strength 2012. Violent crime was relatively higher, on the process domain was mirrored by with four per cent of respondents reporting Denmark’s below average capacity score its performance on the capacity domain, that they had been assaulted or mugged in was in a large part due to the size of its where it had the third best score of any the last year. Eighty per cent of the Danish police force rate, which was one of the country on the Index. Police and the population felt safe walking alone at night smallest in the world. Denmark had military in Denmark were the least likely in their city or neighbourhood, the 16th 192 police officers per 100,000 people, to abuse their public positions for private highest level in the world. This figure has the second lowest rate of the top five gain, according to the World Justice remained steady in Denmark since 2006, countries in the Index, and the 105th Project’s Rule of Law Index, although the first year for which data is available. highest police force rate in the entire this does not translate into high levels of Index. However, its armed forces rate was confidence in the police. Seventy-seven relatively high, with 301 armed service per cent of Danish respondents reported personnel per 100,000 people. that they trust their local police force, Denmark had the best process domain which although above average was only score of any country in the Index. It the 27th highest level on the Index.

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Denmark’s below average capacity score was in large part due to the size of its police force rate, which was one of the smallest in the world.

4. Austria Figure 11: Austria Domain Scores Austria Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Austria had the fourth best overall score Austria’s process score was the lowest law and the rights of the accused, on on the WISPI, with above average scores of any top five country, although still which Austria ranked fifth amongst all on all four of the Index domains. Austria very high by global standards. The level countries in the Index. has the 12th highest process score, the of violence by the state against citizens Crime and other internal security sixth highest legitimacy score, and the was very low, although as recently disruptions were limited in Austria. seventh highest outcomes score. Unlike as 2009 Austria scored a two on the The country’s homicide rate of 0.9 Denmark and Finland, Austria had an Political Terror Scale, which corresponds per 100,000 people was one of the above average capacity score, and to a limited amount of imprisonment lowest in the world, and 81 per cent of ranked 58th on that domain. for nonviolent political activity. Bribe Austrians felt safe walking in their city Austria’s capacity score was the fourth payments to police were also relatively or neighbourhood at night. Only three highest of the ten best performing high in Austria, compared to other percent of Austrian respondents reported countries. It had a police force rate of nations that perform well on the Index. that they had been assaulted or mugged 328 police officers per 100,000 people, Four per cent of Austrian respondents in the last year, compared to the Index second only to Singapore amongst the report that they paid a bribe to police average of seven per cent. However, top five countries. However, its military officers in the last year. Corruption at a there have been some terrorist incidents was smaller than the Index average, broader level was also an issue in Austria, in Austria over the past five years. Three with an armed forces rates of 270 which ranks 18th on the World Bank’s people have been killed in terrorist per 100,000 people, lower than both Control of Corruption indicator. attacks between 2009 and 2014, with Denmark and Finland. The size of its security officials raising concerns that private security sector was also relatively Austrian citizens reported high levels of Austria’s geographical location makes it small, with only Denmark having a lower confidence in law enforcement officials, a hub for European Islamic State recruits private security personnel rate amongst with 86 per cent being confident about seeking passage to Syria or Iraq. the five best performing countries. their local police force. This confidence in police was backed up by strong security provider respect for the due process of

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Five best performing countries

Germany’s score on the outcomes domain reflects the many internal security challenges that the country faces.

5. Germany Figure 12: Germany Domain Scores Germany Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Germany was the fifth best performing Germany had a higher process score than challenges that the country faces. Its country on the WISPI, and the only country both Austria and Singapore, although homicide rate of 0.8 per 100,000 people with a population greater than ten million it was still well below Denmark and was very low, well below the global average to be ranked in the top ten, and along Finland. Germany had the least effective and less than half of the European average. with Japan, one of only two countries police and judicial system of any top five However, the level of violent crime was with a population greater than 50 million country, as measured by the World Justice equal to the European average, with four to be ranked in the top 20. Germany Project’s Rule of Law Index. However, bribe per cent of Germans reporting that they had been mugged or assaulted in the scored above average across all four payments to the police are very rare, with last year. This level of violent crime was Index domains, but did particularly well only two per cent of respondents reporting reflected in public perceptions of safety, on the process domain, where it ranked that they had paid a bribe to the police with 25 per cent of Germans not feeling sixth. However, Germany had the worst in the last year. Germans were also much safe at night whilst walking in their local outcomes score of any country in the top more likely to report crime to the police, neighbourhood or city. Terrorism is also a with Germany having the fourth lowest five, and owing to its size, location, and growing concern, with 12 recorded terrorist underreporting rate of any country in the economic strength, is facing a number attacks in Germany in 2014 (albeit with no Index. On the legitimacy domain, Germany of potential internal security challenges. fatalities), seven recorded attacks in 2011, scored well across all four. It had very low Whilst Germany’s armed forces and and four in 2012. private security force rates were below levels of political terror, low corruption in the Index average, it had a relatively high the military and armed forces, and a strong number of police officers compared to due process score. Confidence in the other high performing countries, with a security forces was also high, with 82 per cent of Germans feeling confident about rate of 295 police per 100,000 people. their local police. However, this rate was still below the Index average of 347, and below the Germany’s score on the outcomes European average of 339. domain reflects the many internal security

20 World InternalWorld Security Internal and Security Police andIndex Police 2016 Index > Results 2016

Five worst performing countries

Countries with insufficient data are excluded from the Index, as are countries currently embroiled in a sustained civil conflict, so the following five countries may not have the worst internal security situation globally. Rather, they had the weakest potential response to further outbreaks of internal disruption, and are thus more likely than other countries to fall into internal conflict.

123. Pakistan Figure 13: Pakistan Domain Scores Pakistan Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Pakistan was the fifth worst performing Unsurprisingly, confidence in the police 2004, a number that had risen to 2356 in country on the WISPI, with an overall was low, with just 34 per cent of Pakistanis 2013. Fear of terrorism was reflected in score of 0.349. Pakistan is the only indicating that they have confidence in perceptions of safety amongst citizens. country in the bottom five not from the their local police. Pakistan had the worst 50 per cent of Pakistani respondents to sub-Saharan Africa region. It had worse possible score of five on the political terror the Gallup World Poll stated that they did than average scores on three of the four scale, indicating that state terror has not feel safe walking at night in their own Index domains, but had an above average expanded to the entire population. This neighbourhoods and cities, with ten per score on the capacity domain. Pakistan reflects a regression of state behaviour cent of respondents saying that they had ranks last out of all the countries on the over the past 30 years, as Pakistan had been mugged or assaulted in the last year. Index on the legitimacy domain, and was a score of three for much of the 1980s. ranked in the bottom ten countries for Underreporting of crime was endemic, internal security outcomes. with just 0.32 per cent of thefts being Pakistan’s police force and armed service reported to the police. personnel rates were slightly below the Instability arising from internal security Index average, while its level of private issues is a serious concern for the Pakistani security was well above the Index average. Government. Pakistan had one of the However, its prison occupancy rate sits at highest levels of terrorist activity in the 177 per cent, well above the Index average world, with almost 9000 people being of 133 per cent. killed in terrorist attacks over the last five Pakistan performed poorly on the process years, in over 6800 incidents of terrorism. and legitimacy domains. Sixty-five percent In the last 15 years, terrorism has spilled of Pakistani respondents to the Global over from neighbouring countries into Corruption Barometer reported paying Pakistan. Ninety-seven people died from a bribe to the police in the last year. terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the year

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Five worst performing countries

124. Uganda Figure 14: Uganda Domain Scores Uganda Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Uganda was the fourth worst performing Corruption is widespread in Uganda. Despite public confidence in the police, country on the WISPI, with a score of 0.312. It scored poorly on the World Bank’s crime in Uganda was high. It had the The average score across all countries Control of Corruption indicator, and 28th highest homicide rate in the Index, was 0.6, and 0.436 in sub-Saharan Africa. 69 per cent of Ugandans admitted to and the 11th highest level of violent Uganda scored poorly across all four Index paying a bribe to a police officer in the crime. Seventeen per cent of Ugandan domains, with a particularly low score last year. Less than one per cent of respondents to the Gallup World Poll on the capacity and outcomes domains. incidents of theft were reported to the said that they had been assaulted or Uganda’s capacity score of 0.224 was the police. However, trust in police was mugged in the last year. While Terrorism second lowest in the Index, behind only relatively high for a country that scores in Uganda was nowhere near as high as in Kenya, Pakistan, or Nigeria, there have Kenya, and both its process and outcomes so poorly on the Index, with 67 per still been several terrorist attacks in the scores are ranked in the bottom ten. cent of Ugandans saying that they have last five years. There were six terrorist confidence in their local police force, Uganda had a relatively small police force incidents in Uganda in 2014, in which 98 which was above the Index average. for its size, with a police officer rate of 110 people lost their lives. Despite this trust in police, the World per 100,000 people. This was a lower Justice Project’s Rule of Law index rates police force rate than most developed, Uganda very poorly on the public use, full democracies, which typically have private gain indicator, which suggests smaller police forces. Uganda also had a that police and military officials in relatively small military, with 116 armed Uganda abuse their positions for private service personnel per 100,000 people, gain. Uganda had the best Political Terror which was smaller than the Index average Scale score of the five worst performing of 120. Uganda’s prisons were also countries, a score that has improved by badly overcrowded with a 255 per cent two points over the last 30 years. occupancy rate according to the World Prison Population Project.

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Political terror is on the rise in Kenya, as shown by its increase in Political Terror Scale score from 2 in 1989 to 4 in 2013.

125. Kenya Figure 15: Kenya Domain Scores Kenya Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Kenya was the third worst performing Kenya performed poorly on both the average of 11.53. Ten per cent of Kenyans country on the WISPI, and one of six process and legitimacy domains. Seventy- reported being victims of an assault or sub-Saharan countries to be ranked in the seven per cent of Kenyans reported paying mugging, far lower than the figure of 16 bottom ten countries. Kenya scored poorly bribes to the police, and only 0.11 per cent per cent in the Democratic Republic of across all four of the Index domains, but of instances of theft are reported to the the Congo, and 19 per cent in Nigeria. 50- particularly poorly on the capacity and police. In spite of these facts, confidence two per cent of Kenyans felt safe walking process domains, where it ranked last in the police at the local level remains at night in their neighbourhoods or cities. and third last, respectively. Kenya had a relatively high, with 58 per cent of Kenyans However, Kenya has suffered from an slightly better outcome score of 0.456, the expressing confidence in their local increasing number of terrorist attacks highest of any country in the bottom five. police. Corruption was high in Kenya, with in the last five years. In 2014, 291 people were killed in terrorist attacks, up from 19 the World Bank’s Control of Corruption Kenya had a relatively small police force, in 2010. indicator ranking Kenya 115th for general with 99 police officers per 100,000 government corruption. Political terror has people, compared to the Index average also been increasing in Kenya, as shown of 347 and the sub-Saharan Africa by its increase in Political Terror Scale average of 268. It also had a small private score from two in 1989 to four in 2013. security industry, with 136 private security employees per 100,000 people, which Despite performing poorly on the process was less than half of the Index average and legitimacy domains, Kenya had a of 330. Kenya had one of the smallest relatively good outcomes score, with militaries on a per capita basis, with only Kenya having the best outcomes rank of 53 armed forces personnel per 100,000 any country in the bottom five. Kenya’s people. The size of Kenya’s army has fallen homicide rate of 6.4 per 100,000 people dramatically over the last 20 years, as the was lower than the Index average of 8.05, rate was 106 in 1995. and well below the sub-Saharan Africa

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Five worst performing countries

Only 30 per cent of Democratic Republic of the Congo’s population felt safe walking alone at night in their neighbourhood or city.

126. Democratic Republic of the Congo Figure 16: Congo DR Domain Scores Congo DR Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has fluctuated significantly over the past average of 61 per cent. The homicide rate (henceforth Congo DR) suffers from a 30 year,s ranging from a high of 262 in of 28.30 per 100,000 people was also well lack of available data on internal security 2009 to a low of 98 in 1994. above the global average 8.05, and one issues. Congo DR scored 0.272, but it of the highest homicide rates outside of Corruption remains a problem in Congo South America or Central America and the does have imputed data for six of the DR, particularly in the police force. It had Caribbean countries that are plagued by 16 WISPI indicators, and in theory could the fourth worst score on the World Bank’s drug-trade related violence. Sixteen per have an Index score as high 0.50 or as Control of Corruption indicator, and 78 cent of respondents to the Gallup World low as 0.16. However, given its other per cent of respondents to the Global Poll stated that they had been assaulted indicator scores and similarity to other Corruption Barometer survey indicated or mugged in the last year. There has also countries, it is likely that Congo DR’s that they had paid a bribe to the police been a resurgence of terrorist activity in score is very close to its imputed score of in the last year. Confidence in the police the last year, with 96 incidents and 343 0.272. The country scored poorly across was below the Index average. Only 46 per deaths from terrorism in 2014. all four domains, but particularly poorly cent of the population in Congo DR have on both legitimacy and outcomes. confidence in their local police. Congo DR Congo DR had one of the smallest police scored five on the Political Terror Scale force rates of any country in the Index, with in 2014 having been a consistent poor approximately 100 officers per 100,000 performer on this indicator, scoring a five people. By comparison, the Index median every year from 1996 onwards. rate was 300, and the sub-Saharan Africa Congo DR suffers from some of the average was 268. Congo DR had an armed worst violence of any country in the forces rate larger than its regional average, Index. Only 30 per cent of the population with 193 armed services personnel per felt safe walking alone at night in their 100,000, versus 115 for sub-Saharan Africa neighbourhood or city, the second lowest on average. The size of Congo DR’s military percentage, and less than half of the Index

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Nigeria was the worst performing country on the WISPI, with a score of 0.255.

127. Nigeria Figure 17: Nigeria Domain Scores Nigeria Average

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.0 Overall >

Capacity >

Process >

Legitimacy >

Outcomes >

< Domain score >

Nigeria was the worst performing country corruption was high, according to the villages. Nigeria had an estimated on the WISPI, with a score of 0.255. Nigeria Control of Corruption indicator, and 81 homicide rate of 20 per 100,000 people, scored poorly across all four domains, per cent of Nigerian respondents to the well above the Index average, and 19 per and had the worst score of any country in Global Corruption Barometer admitted cent of Nigerian respondents to the Gallup the Index on the process and outcomes to paying a bribe to a police officer in the World Poll stated that they had been domains. All of its domain scores were in last year. Only 0.06 per cent of thefts assaulted or mugged in the last year. the bottom ten countries. were reported to police. Unsurprisingly, Nigeria had an average sized police force, the Rule of Law index found that military and a relatively small military and private and police officials are likely to use their security sector. There are 219 police public positions for private gain. High officers for every 100,000 Nigerians, levels of political terror have been an issue well below both the Index median of for Nigeria since 1993, with the country 300, and the sub-Saharan Africa region scoring a 4 on the Political Terror Scale average of 268. There were an additional every year since then. 71 private security workers per 100,000 Internal conflict in Nigeria has skyrocketed people, which was one of the five lowest in the past decade, with a particularly private security sector rates. However, noticeable increase in terrorism. Over while Nigeria’s prison occupancy rate 12,000 people have been killed in terrorist was about 100 per cent, it was still below attacks since 2006, of which 7,512 the Index average of 133 per cent, and occurred in 2014 alone. The terrorist group significantly lower than the regional Boko Haram have been responsible for average of 168 per cent. most of the attacks, but Fulani militants Police and judicial system effectiveness have also been responsible for hundreds is a serious issue in Nigeria. General of deaths in attacks against farms and

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The post-World War II era has brought about much greater efforts to reduce violent conflict between nations, and a subsequent focus on international organisations that seek to foster understanding, cooperation, and diplomacy between nations. This increased focus on diplomacy, coupled with the increases in destructive power brought about by advances in military technology, have made direct confrontations between nations less likely, particularly between the great powers. However, whilst violent conflicts between nations have become less common over the past 50 years, internal conflicts have become increasingly common.

Proxy conflicts within nations were a of countries involved in external violent frequent occurrence during the Cold War, conflicts. This long term trend clearly and whilst the number of internal conflicts illustrates the shift from violence between has dropped slightly over the past nations, to violence within nations. 20 years, there were still an estimated As the number of internal armed conflicts 106 active internal conflicts in 2013. Of began to increase in the late 18th century, these 106 conflicts, 24 were classified the modern understanding of the need as civil wars, with the rest being a mix for and functions of a police force began of one sided conflicts, civil wars with to coalesce. The use of private security some international actors, and conflicts agents or intelligence agents as a defacto between different non-state parties secret police in the Hapsburg Empire within a country. By contrast, there were in Internal Security and Policing made the public in other countries wary no interstate conflicts in 2013 according of the very concept of a police force. to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program The nine Peelian Principles, drafted by conflict dataset. the statesman Sir Robert Peel, were Figure 18 shows the number of countries put in place to assuage the fears of involved in internal and external conflicts, Londoners about a police force upon the going back 500 years. In the year 1500, establishment of the Metropolitan Police there were an estimated 14 countries in 1829. The Peelian Principles explicitly involved in an external conflict, with only state that the purpose of the police is to one country involved in an internal conflict. prevent crime and disorder, in lieu The number of both internal and external of internal military action. Many of the conflicts began to increase sharply after other principals touch on the themes 1775, however, it was not until the second of effectiveness, legitimacy and half of the 20th century that the number good outcomes. of countries involved in internal violent

Trends conflicts clearly overtook the number

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Figure 18: Countries Involved in Internal and External Conflicts (1500-2000) In the last 50 years,the number of countries involved in internal conflict has overtaken the number of countries involved in external conflicts.

External Conflict 10 Year Moving Average Internal Conflict 10 Year Moving Average

Number of countries involved in active conflicts

1500 1525 1550 1575 1600 1625 1650 1675 1700 1725 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Year

Figure 19: US Police Officers Killed in the Line of Duty, 1895-2015 The data that is available on the number Intentional violent deaths only, excludes accidental deaths. of police deaths shows that while internal security has become a more pressing issue in many countries, policing has not become more or less risky. Figure 19 shows violent police deaths in the United States from 1895 to 2015. Police officer violent deaths peaked in the late 1920s

and early 30s, before falling sharply during the Great Depression and Second World War. They remained low until the 1960s, when homicide and violent crime began to rise sharply, leading to a huge rise in the number of police officers killed. At the peak of this trend in 1973, 170 police officers were deliberately killed in the

line of duty. However, this trend began 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 19851995 2005 2015 to decline shortly after, falling for almost 30 years in a row. In 2014, 65 officers Year were deliberately killed in the line of duty. Data from the United Kingdom shows a similar trend with officer deaths peaking in the early 1980s, before falling sharply. Twenty police officers have been killed in the United Kingdom since 2006, far fewer than the 50 killed in the most dangerous period between 1975 and 1984.

27 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

The issue of internal security, particularly its process and legitimacy aspects, became more and more pressing for many countries as a result of the great wave of democratisation and liberalisation that occurred after the end of World War II.

The issue of internal security, particularly countries as either free, partially free, or at the number of countries which are its process and legitimacy aspects, not free, based on a seven point scale that electoral democracies. In 1989, 41 per became more and more pressing for many measures political rights and civil liberties. cent of assessed countries were classed as electoral democracies, a number countries as a result of the great wave of The Freedom in the World data shows a which had increased to 63 per cent when democratisation and liberalisation that large increase in the number of countries the 2015 data was released. However, occurred after the end of the Second classified as free from 1973 to 1998, there has been virtually no change in the World War, and again after the fall of however, since then there has been percentage of electoral democracies since the Berlin Wall in 1989. Figure 20 shows virtually no change in the percentage 1995. The trend of increasing liberalisation the shifting composition of the Freedom of classified free, partially free, or not and democratisation that began after the House Freedom in the World report. Since free. This is consistent with another end of World War II has not only slowed 1973, Freedom House has been classifying Freedom House dataset, which looks down, but seemingly stopped entirely.

Figure 20: Percentage of Countries by Freedom Rating, Freedom House (1973-2014) After increasing steadily from 1973 to 1998, the percentage of countries ranked as free has barely changed in the last 15 years.

Percentage o Countries

Not free

Partially free

Free

1973 1978 1983 1988 19931998200320082013

28 Results and Trends by Domain: Capacity ↑ than fulldemocracies. capacity andoverall score forevery government typeother Figure 21. However, there isaclose correlation between correlated to theoverall Index score (r=0.61), asshownin Of thefourWISPIdomains,capacityisleast strongly Figure 21:OverallScorevsCapacity(r=0.61) Table andWorst FiveBest 03: Performing Countries, Capacity Capacity Kenya Uganda Bangladesh Malawi Madagascar Five worstperformingcountries,capacity Algeria Belarus Russia Bulgaria Bahrain Five bestperformingcountries,capacity Country Overall Score Autoritarian Regime yrid Regime Flaed Democracy Full Democracy World Internal SecurityandPolice Index 2016 Capacity 0.996 0.968 0.984 0.244 0.985 0.224 0.282 0.975 0.214 0.321 126 124 123 127 125 4 3 5 2 1 29 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

In fact, if Costa Rica is excluded from the Police democracies had the largest armed set of full democracies, there is actually forces rates on average. There is a a negative correlation between capacity The police rate is the most heavily significant difference between police and overall Index score amongst this weighted indicator of the capacity force sizes across government types, with government type. When viewed as a domain, and theoretically the most authoritarian regimes having an average single set of 127 countries, it appears important aspect of internal security police force rate that is 60 per cent higher that as capacity increases, the overall capacity. Whilst the actual impact of than full democracies. Index score increases up until a certain increasing police numbers on crime There is a significant difference between point. Beyond this point, excess capacity is disputed, there is no argument in total security service provider rates at the has no or even a negative impact on a the criminology and internal security regional level. MENA had by far the largest country’s overall score. This suggests literature that the primary function of the average police force rate, with 629 police that a certain baseline level of police police is crime prevention and supporting officers per 100,000 people. This average capacity is necessary to achieve good state security and stability. processes, to be seen as legitimate, is skewed by a number of smaller Gulf Figure 22 shows the combined average and to achieve good internal security States that had particularly high police police force, armed forces, and private outcomes. Beyond this baseline, force rates, most noticeably Bahrain, however, excess capacity is detrimental security rates per 100,000 people, which had almost 2,000 police officers to progress in the other three domains. by both government type and region. per 100,000 people. However, even if the There is far less variation across the median regional rate is used rather than This dynamic can be seen when four government types than there is the average, MENA still has a far higher looking at the countries with the best regionally. median rate than any other region. capacity scores, none of which are full democracies, as shown in Table 3. Of Looking just at government types, full In contrast, to the MENA region, sub- the countries with the worst capacity democracies had the lowest overall Saharan Africa had a security force scores, four are from sub-Saharan Africa, rate, and the lowest rates for all three provider rate that is noticeably lower including Kenya and Nigeria, both of categories. The size of the armed than any other region. On average there which are ranked in the bottom five forces does not differ greatly between are just over 500 security force providers countries overall. government types, although flawed in sub-Saharan Africa per 100,000

Figure 22: Police, Armed Forces and Private Security by Region and Government Type Whilst there is little difference in security force provider rates by government type, there are much bigger differences regionally.

Flawed Democracy 344 433 400 Authoritarian Regime 449 389 303 Hybrid Regime 301 373 293 Full Democracy 279 312 284

Middle East and North Africa 629 881 314 Asia-Pacific 286 552 341 Russia and Eurasia 371 458 326 Central America and Caribbean 315 174 559 Europe 339 359 298 329 383 South Asia 266 329 383 Police South America 338 350 287 South America 338 350 287 Private Security North America 205 318 435 North America 205 318 435 Armed Forces Sub-Saharan Africa 268 115 287

0500 1000 1500 2000

Rate per 100,000 people

30 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

people, compared to nearly 2000 increases in 76 countries. The median ten. Mexico, Venezuela, Cameroon, security force providers per 100,000 decrease was 18 per cent, far smaller than Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Singapore all people in the MENA region. Despite this the median increase of 59 per cent. at least doubled the size of their police large discrepancy, both regions have force rates over the past 30 years. Since the 1980s, countries have the highest percentage of authoritarian increasingly invested more resources in Tracking trends in the resources regimes. Eighty-five per cent of MENA police forces. Figure 23 shows the change allocated to the police and criminal nations, and 41 per cent of sub-Saharan in police force rates in the top and bottom justice system is more difficult, as there African countries are classified as ten ranked countries on the WISPI. is very limited data readily available. Authoritarian regimes. Together, these However, the data that is available two regions account for 75 per cent of all Estimates from the Handbook of the suggests that the level of police and authoritarian regimes. World’s Police are taken from a range of years in the early 1980s, with 2012 data criminal justice system spending has Comparable data showing changes taken from the UNODC Crime Trends increased greatly over the last 50 years. in police force rates over time is only Survey. Almost every single country Figures 24 and 25 show the changes in sporadically available, although a select in the top and bottom ten saw an police spending per capita in Australia cluster of countries do have data that increase in their police force rate over and the US respectively. In Australia, goes back a century or more. Data taken approximately 30 years. Only Austria the number of police officers per from the Handbook of the World’s Police, and Finland in the top ten, and Kenya 100,000 people increased by 31 per cent published in 1987, does provide an in the bottom ten saw decreases in between 1901 and 1978, with most of estimate of the size of police forces across their police force rates. Both the best this increase coming in the period after the world 30 years ago, and how the size and worst ranked countries had large 1960. This increase in police numbers of those police forces has increased or increases, with Singapore increasing is consistent with the global trend that decreased. The handbook has police force its rate from 280 to 700, and Nigeria saw the number of police officers rise in estimates for 101 of the 127 countries increasing its rate from just 26 police most countries over the last 50 years. in the WISPI. Of these 101 countries, 25 per 100,000 people, to 218. Overall the Furthermore, the change in spending on saw a fall in the size of their police force largest percentage changes occurred in police is even more striking, rising from rate from the early 1980s to 2012, with those countries ranked in the bottom eight dollars per capita (measured in

Figure 23: Increase in Police Force Rate, Top and Bottom Ten WISPI Countries (early 1980s to 2012) Police force rates have increased in the majority of countries in the last 30 years.

celand arly s Nigeria arly s Siterland Congo DRC

Seden Kenya

Noray Uganda

Neterlands Pakistan

Australia oamiue

Austria anglades

Denmark Cameroon

Finland eneuela

Singapore eico

31 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

constant price 1978 Australian dollars), increased 191 per cent. Over the same downward trend in the size of armed to 27 dollars in 1978, a more than time period, police spending rose by 484 forces across many countries around threefold increase. While data is not per cent, and prison system spending by the world. However, this downward shift available from 1978 onwards, it is likely 1000 per cent, meaning that the increase in personnel has not been matched that this trend has continued over the in police and prison system spending is with an equivalent decrease in military past 30 years. not just a product of increased economic spending. Most of the major military growth over this period. powers have increased military spending The data in the United States tells a similar as a percentage of GDP while cutting story. In 1900, the combined local, state, Whilst extrapolating a global trend personnel, reflecting a shift away from and federal government system in the US from data for two countries is not a traditional focus on infantry to an spent 12 dollars per person on the police, possible, given the similarities between increased reliance on a more specialized, and four dollars per person on the prison government type, economic growth, and technologically advanced military. system (measured in 2009 constant US political developments in Australia, the dollars). The level of both police and US, and many other countries globally, it Figure 26 shows the global trend in total prison system spending exploded from seems likely that the trend of increased armed forces personnel, as well as the around 1955 onwards, rising almost police numbers and police spending has increase in military expenditure globally, every for a 60 year period. By 2020, it is occurred across Western Europe and most for the period 1995 to 2012 (comparable projected that the US will be spending full democracies over the last 50 years. data was not available for years before 401 dollars per capita on police services, As internal security has become a more 1995). Figure 26 also shows the same and 248 dollars per capita on the prison prominent concern than external security, comparison for the four countries with system, a 3,200 per cent and 6,100 per more capital and labor has been devoted the largest armed forces rates: the US, cent increase, respectively. to government security services, with a China, India, and Russia. parallel rise in the private security industry. This increase in police and prison system Globally, the number of armed services spending is not just a product of increased Armed Forces personnel fell significantly from 1995 to economic growth over this period. To 2005, dropping from over 30 million to compare, from 1961 to 2015, GDP per The upward trend in police numbers 27 million. This number then increased capita in the US (in constant 2005 USD) and spending contrasts sharply with a from 2005 to 2012, moving back up

Figure 24:Figure Police 24: Officers Police and Officers Police and Spending Police Spending in in Figure 25:Figure United 25: States United Government States Government Spending Spending per per AustraliaA (1901-1978)ustralia (1901-1978) Spending Spendingin 1978 AUD, in 1978 police AUD, police Capita onCapita Police on Services Police andServices Prisons and (1900-2020) Prisons (1900-2020) officers is officersthe rate is per the 100,000 rate per people.100,000 people. 2009 USD,2009 federal, USD, state federal, and state local andspending local spending

250 250 30 45030 450 $27 $27 $401 $401

400 400

200 200 195 24195 35024 350 Police Police Services Services 148 Police148 Police 300 300 Officers Officers $248 $248 150 150 18 18 250 250

200 200 100 100 12 12 Prisons Prisons $8 $8 150 150 Police Police Spending Spending $12 $12 100 100 50 50 6 6 50 $4 50 $4

0 0 0 0 0 0

1901 19111901 19211911 19311921 19411931 19511941 19611951 19711961 1971 1900 19201900 19401920 19601940 19801960 20001980 20202000 2020

32 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Figure 26: Military Spending and Armed Services Personnel (1995-2012) the size of its military (a 592 per cent — Global, USA, India, China, Russia. increase and 28 per cent decrease As military spending has increased, the number of military personnel has respectively). Only India had both declined globally. an increase in the number of armed service personnel and an increase in total military spending, with a 152 per Global cent increase in military expenditure,

and a 27 per cent increase in members of the armed forces. Of the 127 countries in the WISPI, only 25 saw increases in the size of their armed forces rates from 1995 to 2012. The end of the Cold War saw many European countries

Armed Forces Personnel (millions) drastically decrease the size of their armed forces. Sweden’s armed forces Total Military Spending (constant 2011 USD billions) personnel rate fell 85 per cent from 1995 to 2012, with similarly large falls in Serbia (81 per cent), Slovakia (69 USA China per cent), Austria (61 per cent), and the Netherlands (48 per cent).

Prison Capacity

Thousands and Private Security Unfortunately, reliable trend data for prison occupancy rates and private India Russia security employment is not available, and collection is too sporadic to make trend series analysis likely in the future. Incarceration rates have varied significantly over the last 20 years, with huge increases in the United States (although that trend has begun to slow and even reverse course), and smaller increases and decreases across most regions and government “ Globally, the number of armed types. Collecting private security employment data and making data services personnel fell significantly comparable across countries is challenging. However, given the from 1995 to 2005. increased emphasis on private security, strong economic growth globally since World War II, and the to 28 million, although it is still 6.7 per a 62 per cent increase. This pattern of size of the private security industry cent lower than in 1995. Over the same decreasing numbers of armed service today (private security companies time period, global military expenditure personnel but increasing military spending are some of the largest employers increased steadily, moving from just over was echoed in Russia, China, and the US. globally), it is likely that the last 30 one trillion dollars (measured in constant China had both the largest percentage years saw enormous growth in the 2011 USD) to around 1.7 trillion dollars, increase in spending and the largest fall in private security market.

33 Results and Trends by Domain: Process and Legitimacy ↑ The strength ofthecorrelation isconsistent across allfour with theoverall Index score (r=0.9 andr=0.92 respectively). Both the process and legitimacy domainscorrelate strongly Performing Countries, Process Table andWorst FiveBest 04: overall legitimacy score. the bestoverall process score, andFinlandhaving thebest are wellrepresented onbothdomains,withDenmark having of thefive legitimacy bestperformers. TheNordic countries make upallofthetop five process bestperformers, andfour government typesforbothdomains.European countries legitimacy istricky, domains asmany of trendFinding data fortheprocess and the Congo andPakistan. alongside theDemocratic Republic of on thelegitimacy domainaswell, ranked amongthebottom five countries a whole. Nigeria Both andKenya are bottom five countriesofthe Index as and Kenya) are alsoranked inthe Saharan two ofwhich(Nigeria Africa, process domain,fourare from sub- Of thebottom five countries onthe Nigeria Sierra Leone Kenya Venezuela Cameroon Five worstperformingcountries Netherlands Norway Sweden Finland Denmark Five bestperformingcountries Country Process 0.908 0.180 0.920 0.948 0.898 0.156 0.195 0.179 0.191 0.922 126 124 123 127 125 4 3 5 2 1 Performing Countries, Legitimacy Table andWorst 05:FiveBest long term trend data. indicators from whichhave domains these years However, ofdata. there are afew Rule ofLaw taken from theWorld JusticeProject’s the process andlegitimacy are domains For example, three oftheindicators from coverage across countries andregions. the lastfive years, orhave inconsistent and corruption were only in established to measure governance, policeprocesses, the surveys setup andotherinstruments Finland Five bestperformingcountries Country Pakistan Congo, DRC Mexico Nigeria Kenya Five worstperformingcountries Switzerland Singapore Denmark Norway index, whichhasonly two index, World Internal SecurityandPolice Index 2016 Legitimacy 0.900 0.264 0.264 0.904 0.227 0.322 0.903 0.173 0.916 0.919 126 124 123 127 125 4 3 5 2 1

34 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Figure 27: Overall Score vs Process (r=0.90) Figure 28: Overall Score vs Legitimacy (r=0.92)

Full Democracy Full Democracy Flaed Democracy Flaed Democracy yrid Regime yrid Regime Autoritarian Regime Autoritarian Regime

Process

Legitimacy

Overall Score Overall Score

Corruption is closely correlated with internal peacefulness, and corruption in the police force, judiciary, and military is the best predictor of poor internal peace outcomes.

Political Terror Scale The Trend in Political Terror Scale scores by the state has become less common, somewhat mirrors the trend in the there is a willingness on the part of a far Figure 29 (overleaf) shows the trend level of freedom as measured by the greater number of states to use small in Political Terror Scale scores for the Freedom House Freedom in the World scale or occasional political terror on 127 WISPI countries. The Political Terror reports. While the number of countries opponents of the state. Scale is a measure of state violence with scores of four or five has declined and repression against its own people, since the early 1990s, the percentage of Corruption with a score of one reflecting a country countries scoring a 1 has also decreased, with a strong rule of law and virtually from 32 per cent in 1976, down to 26.8 Corruption in both the governance no politically motivated violence from per cent in 2014. There has been a structure at large of a country, as well as the state, and a score of five reflecting convergence from both the top and in the police force specifically, is a crucial a situation where terror is widespread, bottom scores into the middle, with the factor that undermines internal security. the use of torture is commonplace, and number of countries with scores of two Corruption is closely correlated with state authority is supreme. The scores or three increasing from just under 50 internal peacefulness, and corruption in are based on expert assessment of per cent in 1976, to 63 per cent in 2014. the police force, judiciary, and military is reports from Amnesty International and This suggests that while the widespread the best predictor of poor internal peace the US State Department. and indiscriminate use of terror tactics outcomes, as well as deteriorations in

35 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

peacefulness in the long run. Corruption The increase in corruption has not reduces the quality of the civil service, been equally distributed across the increases inefficiency, and is closely 127 countries in the WISPI. Figure 31 correlated with wasteful government illustrates the fact that 74 countries spending. Countries in the WISPI are more had increases in corruption from 1996 likely to have higher rates of bribes paid to to 2013, but only two countries had the police, less trust in police, and higher increases of more than 20 per cent of levels of underreporting if they have the possible indicator scoring range. levels of corruption. Prior research by IEP By contrast, fewer countries had has found that once corruption reaches decreases in corruption (scores a certain level, poor internal security improved in 61 countries), but more outcomes become much more likely. countries had had larger improvements, with six countries having decreases in The average level of corruption in the corruption of more than 20 per cent of world has increased in the last 20 years. the possible scoring range. Although The World Bank’s Control of Corruption the overall global trend showed a higher indicator, which is one of six world average level of corruption, the average governance indicators, shows an upward improvement was actually higher than trend in corruption from 1996 to 2013, as the average deterioration. show in Figure 30 (opposite page).

The average level of corruption in the world has increased in the last 20 years.

Figure 29: Political Terror Scale, WISPI Countries By Score (1976-2014) The percentage of countries with both the best and the worst Political Terror Scale scores has decreased since 1976.

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

36 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Figure 30: Index Average Corruption Score (1996-2013) Corruption has increased since 1996.

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Although the overall global trend showed a higher average level of corruption, the average improvement was actually higher than the average deterioration.

Figure 31: Control of Corruption, 1996 vs 2013 Of the 127 WISPI countries, 74 had decreasing levels of corruption from 1996 to 2013.

Average mprovement

Average Deterioration

Deteriorated >20% (2)

2013 Control of Corruption Improved

<20% (55) Deteriorated <20% (72)

1996 Control of Corruption Improved >20% (6)

37 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Internal security outcomes are closely correlated with the overall results of the WISPI, as shown in Figure 32. The strength of the correlation is almost identical across all four government types, with the overall correlation (r=0.87) being stronger than the correlation for any one government type. Notably, of the five countries with the best outcomes scores, only two are from Europe, and only one (Iceland) is a full democracy. Singapore is a hybrid regime, and tops the outcomes domain. At the other end of the scale, only Paraguay is not from the sub-Saharan African region.

Table 06: Five Best and Worst Performing Countries, Outcomes

Country Outcomes

Five best performing countries Singapore 0.963 1 United Arab Emirates 0.930 2 Iceland 0.906 3 Kuwait 0.904 4 Slovenia 0.903 5

Five worst performing countries Tanzania 0.317 123 Congo, DRC 0.268 124 Mozambique 0.265 125 Paraguay 0.247 126 Nigeria 0.226 127

Figure 32: Overall Score vs Outcomes (r=0.87)

Legitimacy

Full Democracy

Flaed Democracy yrid Regime Autoritarian Regime

Results and Trends by Domain: by and Trends Results Outcomes Overall Score

38 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Homicide Estimates taken from the Homicide is in and of itself necessarily a reflection of worsening internal security 2015 Global Peace Index problems. When a country’s homicide rate is low, police forces have adequate report suggest that there resources to investigate and prosecute homicide cases, in spite of the large has been an increase in the amount of time, money, and expertise global homicide rate in the such cases require. Furthermore, when homicide rates are low, it is highly likely past seven years. that the cases that do occur will involve people who are known to each other, usually in a family or domestic setting. between countries, with the lowest rate America and the Caribbean. These However, an increasing homicide being 40 times lower than the Index regions have been plagued by political rate is often a strong indicator of the average, and the highest rate being 11 instability and drug-trade related breakdown of the rule of law, an under- times higher than the Index average. The resourced, inefficient, or corrupt police violence over the last decade, leading five countries with the lowest homicide and judicial system, or the presence of to a situation in many countries where rates had remarkably low figures, both some underlying factor such as drug- police are almost powerless to prevent in comparison to other countries in trade related violence. If these factors drug-trade related killings. 2012, and to historical homicide levels. are left unchecked, they can become It would be unprecedented for a state to The trend in the homicide rate globally, serious threats to internal security and the reduce the homicide level any lower than and also at the national level for many stability of the state. 0.2, which was Singapore’s homicide countries, is much more difficult Figure 33 shows the countries with the rate in 2012. By contrast, the countries to discern. While there is a general five highest and five lowest homicide with the highest homicide rates are well consensus that homicide rates have fallen rates at the national level for 2012, above the Index average, and well above significantly in most countries over the using data from the UNODC’s Crime their own historical average levels. All of very long run, making an assessment Trends Survey. The chart shows the the five countries with the highest rates of trends in the post-World War II era is tremendous variance in homicide rates are from either South America, Central much more difficult. Many countries do

Figure 33: Five Highest and Lowest Homicide Rates (2012) Countries in South America, Central America and the Caribbean have the highest homicide rates in the world.

Singapore apan celand Kuait arain amaica Guatemalal Salvador eneuela onduras

39 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

not have police recorded homicide figures The homicide rate in Singapore and Japan the unpredictable and horrific nature of for all but the last few years, and there are in 2010 was less than 20 per cent of the terrorist violence means that it has a far large discrepancies between estimates level it was in 1955. Austria, Germany, and greater social impact. Media coverage of made by police and estimates made by Switzerland all also had big reductions terrorist incidents and terrorist threats public health organisations like the World in their respective homicide rates over is disproportionately large. Terrorist Health Organisation (WHO). Thus, putting this period. Noticeably, only Japan had groups can use this coverage to drive an accurate figure on the total number a steady downward trend in its homicide support, funding, and awareness. Terrorist of homicides globally is difficult, and rate. Every other country shown that had incidents often occur in ‘bursts’, where constructing a global homicide trend is a reduction first saw an increase that acts by one group lead to similar acts even more so. Estimates taken from the peaked around 1980 or slightly after, by other groups or copycat lone wolves. 2015 Global Peace Index report suggest followed by a sharp if steady decline. Of Counterterrorism efforts are much more that there has been an increase in the the countries that suffered large increases, resource intensive than everyday policing, global homicide rate in the past seven Ireland’s was the worst. The homicide rate as they require intensive surveillance and years, from 5.46 in 2005, to 6.37 in 2012. in Ireland in 2010 was five times higher a costly intelligence infrastructure. According to those figures, over 450,000 than in 1955. The Netherlands, Norway, In recent years, organisations that began people were murdered in 2012, an Spain, and Belgium all had large increases as terrorist groups have morphed or increase of almost 26 per cent from 2005. as well, and all had homicides rates in grown into full-fledged insurgencies. In 2010 that were at least twice as high as Harmonised data over a longer time the Middle East, the terrorist organisation their homicides rates in 1955. period is difficult to assemble, given the Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad became al- shift in many countries from public health Terrorism Qa’ida in Iraq in 2004 before rebranding organisation records to police recorded and ultimately splitting from al-Qa’ida data. However, data is available for many Terrorism is one of the biggest threats altogether. After participating in the Syrian countries over a 50 year period. Figure to internal security that a country can civil war, the group grew significantly 34 shows an index of homicide rates in face. The police response to terrorism is acquiring firepower, financial resources, selected WISPI countries, from 1955 to thus a crucial element in ensuring state and recruits from across the world. In 2010. In an index chart, the first year stability and security. Whilst deaths from mid-2014 the group returned to Iraq and of data takes a value of one for every terrorism are far fewer in number than controlled territory in both Iraq and Syria. country, so the chart shows the relative deaths from homicide, and terrorist Boko Haram, a terrorist organisation change in the homicide rate from the first incidents are far less common than that operates in Nigeria, also evolved year onwards. violent crimes like assault and robbery, into a group with territorial control. After

Figure 34: Homicide Index (1955-2010, 1955 = 1) Of the 32 countries with available data, 17 have seen homicide rates increase since 1955.

reland

Neterlands Noray Spain Austria elgium Germany Siterland

Homicide Rate as Ratio of 1955 Homicide Rate as Ratio of 1955 apan Singapore

40 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

beginning as a fundamentalist sect in Brotherhood were a democratically 35 shows deaths from terrorism for the 2002, Boko Haram grew until a violent elected political party in Egypt, but period 1998-2014. uprising in 2009 almost completely wiped more recently have conducted some There has been an enormous increase in them out. They regrouped in the following terrorist attacks. They are coded as one deaths from terrorism over the past five years, starting a campaign of violence that of the 3,000 different terrorist actors in years. In 1998, there were 3,332 deaths grew in scope and size, culminating with the Global Terrorist Database and are from terrorism. After the terrorist attacks an attack on the town of Baga that left as considered to be a terrorist organisation of September 11, 2001, the onset of the many as 2,000 people dead (although this by some governments. Iraq war saw a surge in terrorist activity. figure is disputed by Nigerian authorities). There has been a shift in the last 30 years At the height of the Iraqi insurgency in There are also examples of long-standing from ideological terrorism to nationalist 2007, just under 11,000 people were killed political and religious groups who and religious terrorism, with the majority globally in terrorist attacks, the majority have conducted terrorist attacks. For of terrorist deaths now occurring as part of those in Iraq or Afghanistan. The next example, in 2012 in Egypt the Muslim of an existing internal conflict. Figure few years saw a fall in terrorist activity,

There has been a shift in the last 30 years from ideological terrorism to nationalist and religious terrorism, with the majority of terrorist deaths now occurring as part of an existing internal conflict.

Figure 35: Deaths from Terrorism and Year on Year % Change (1998-2014) DeathsFigure 35:from Deaths terrorism from have Terrorism increased and greatly Year overon Year the last% Change three years. (1998-2014 More than) 30,000 people were killed in terroristDeaths from attacks terrorism 2014, anhave 80% increased increase greatly from 2013 over. the last three years. More than 30,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks 2014, an 80% increase from 2013.

32,685 32,685

Deaths from Terrorism

Deaths from Terrorism 3,332 3,332

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

106% 106% 85% 80% 50% 85% 61% 53% 61% 80% 50% 61% 30% 53% 61% 4% 30% 9% 3% 4% 9% 3% -29% -25% -20% From Previous Year -34% % Increase In Deaths -45%-29% -25% -20% From Previous Year -34% % Increase In Deaths -45% 41 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Figure 36: Deaths from Terrorism, Five Most Affected Countries and Rest of the World Nigeria accounted for 23% of all deaths from terrorism in 2014.

22%

5% 5% 14%

23%

Deaths from Terrorism 30% For females, only

54 per cent felt safe walking alone at ra Nigeria Aganistan Pakistan Syria Rest o te orld night in 2014.

with year on year declines of 25 per cent have also been responsible for thousands recorded assault rate, with the assault rate in 2008 and 20 per cent 2010. However, of deaths, although they have received improving in the other 23 countries. in the last three years terrorist activity less press coverage than Boko Haram. Perceptions of safety data is only has surged once again, with year on year Over five per cent of all terrorist deaths available back to 2006. There have been increases of 53 per cent, 61 per cent, occurred in Pakistan. The number of fluctuations in perceptions of safety over and 80 per cent in 2012, 2013, and 2014 deaths per year has remained relatively this period, with the global aggregate respectively. In 2014, 32,685 people were constant in Pakistan since 2007, but as level falling from 65 per cent of total killed in terrorist attacks. terrorism has increased around the world, respondents feeling safe walking at night Figure 36 shows the distribution of these deaths have represented a smaller in their neighbourhood or city, to 60 per terrorist deaths by country in 2014. Of the and smaller percentage of the global total. cent in 2014. The gap between male and five countries with the highest number female perceptions has remained almost Violent Crime and of total deaths from terrorism, two are identical, although male perceptions of Perceptions of Safety ranked in the bottom five of the WISPI. The safety fell slightly more. Sixty-six per cent of male respondents felt safe walking other three countries are not ranked in the Not enough comparable violent crime data alone at night in 2014, down from 73 per Index, owing to ongoing internal conflicts. is available to conduct any meaningful cent. For females, only 54 per cent felt Nigeria accounted for 23 per cent of trend analysis. Assault data from the safe in 2014, a fall of four percentage all deaths from terrorism in 2014. Of Gallup World Poll is only available for a points from 58 per cent in 2006. these deaths, the majority were the handful of years, and UNODC data on responsibility of Boko Haram, a terrorist assault, robbery, and rape has serious and insurgency group that came to comparability issues, and only goes back widespread global attention after they to 2003. Of the 38 countries that do have kidnapped nearly 300 young girls from a assault data for every year from 2003 to boarding school in Chibok. Fulani militants 2013, 15 experienced increases in the police

42 Appendix A: Full Results Table South Korea Czech Republic Poland France Portugal United Kingdom Spain Belgium Canada Estonia Japan Slovenia Ireland New Zealand Iceland Switzerland Sweden Norway Netherlands Australia Germany Austria Denmark Finland Singapore Italy United States Kuwait Georgia Cyprus United Arab Emirates Taiwan Croatia Slovakia Country 0.840 0.808 0.830 0.850 0.805 0.864 0.848 0.898 0.760 0.859 0.766 0.801 0.823 0.822 0.825 0.832 0.726 0.762 0.793 0.724 0.787 0.818 0.777 0.723 0.772 0.733 0.727 0.775 0.812 0.761 0.781 0.781 0.841 0.771 Overall Score 0.909 0.848 0.648 0.967 0.945 0.939 0.829 0.854 0.654 0.654 0.639 0.897 0.658 0.770 0.910 0.707 0.823 0.674 0.674 0.635 0.875 0.763 0.736 0.724 0.778 0.756 0.787 0.710 0.841 0.818 0.773 0.825 0.821 0.611 Capacity 0.908 0.920 0.948 0.605 0.898 0.790 0.790 0.564 0.780 0.829 0.824 0.876 0.665 0.676 0.679 0.828 0.634 0.634 0.593 0.697 0.638 0.703 0.922 0.558 0.810 0.833 0.627 0.734 0.754 0.738 0.824 0.681 0.817 0.741 Process 0.900 0.904 0.860 0.890 0.840 0.804 0.903 0.899 0.886 0.867 0.893 0.858 0.656 0.695 0.847 0.682 0.647 0.794 0.852 0.837 0.916 0.919 0.738 0.865 0.758 0.777 0.773 0.772 0.725 0.732 0.775 0.752 0.817 0.813 World Internal SecurityandPolice Index 2016 Legitimacy 0.906 0.904 0.860 0.930 0.903 0.902 0.805 0.807 0.866 0.864 0.849 0.894 0.870 0.848 0.963 0.854 0.893 0.834 0.876 0.858 0.885 0.770 0.766 0.801 0.852 0.822 0.677 0.827 0.825 0.734 0.783 0.847 0.761 0.771 Outcomes 38% 25% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 0% Imputed Data 43 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Country Overall Score Capacity Process Legitimacy Outcomes Imputed Data Uruguay 0.719 0.926 0.698 0.728 0.575 6% Lithuania 0.719 0.903 0.605 0.733 0.680 19% Jordan 0.718 0.949 0.524 0.633 0.824 6% Montenegro 0.715 0.914 0.481 0.681 0.833 25% Israel 0.712 0.967 0.687 0.538 0.721 25% Kosovo 0.709 0.590 0.627 0.859 0.732 19% Bahrain 0.707 0.996 0.570 0.586 0.747 38% Latvia 0.705 0.934 0.558 0.691 0.695 19% Chile 0.699 0.794 0.672 0.689 0.665 0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.698 0.916 0.465 0.642 0.824 6% Romania 0.689 0.835 0.535 0.616 0.805 0% Armenia 0.688 0.921 0.479 0.516 0.893 25% Botswana 0.685 0.941 0.656 0.721 0.488 13% Greece 0.684 0.783 0.583 0.691 0.704 0% Serbia 0.684 0.886 0.462 0.587 0.851 0% Rwanda 0.683 0.876 0.610 0.741 0.553 31% Bulgaria 0.678 0.985 0.494 0.556 0.753 0% Saudi Arabia 0.673 0.894 0.457 0.600 0.795 44% Malaysia 0.671 0.793 0.540 0.676 0.705 6% Hungary 0.661 0.541 0.632 0.647 0.793 0% Macedonia (FYR) 0.642 0.791 0.500 0.604 0.711 0% Tajikistan 0.641 0.798 0.374 0.575 0.858 31% Belarus 0.633 0.975 0.472 0.486 0.686 6% Algeria 0.623 0.968 0.400 0.566 0.647 25% Vietnam 0.616 0.778 0.353 0.562 0.810 19% Turkey 0.615 0.955 0.458 0.495 0.636 0% Uzbekistan 0.595 0.855 0.273 0.472 0.847 19% Sri Lanka 0.589 0.774 0.389 0.520 0.720 6% Azerbaijan 0.585 0.723 0.295 0.487 0.871 25% China 0.584 0.658 0.481 0.464 0.752 13% Jamaica 0.573 0.846 0.465 0.469 0.583 0% Mongolia 0.572 0.850 0.390 0.530 0.585 6% Trinidad and Tobago 0.571 0.860 0.417 0.535 0.544 25% Senegal 0.567 0.655 0.324 0.620 0.691 6%

44 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Country Overall Score Capacity Process Legitimacy Outcomes Imputed Data Thailand 0.564 0.795 0.412 0.531 0.578 6% Nepal 0.562 0.725 0.386 0.554 0.624 6% Lebanon 0.555 0.774 0.386 0.479 0.635 6% Tunisia 0.554 0.755 0.378 0.447 0.688 13% Panama 0.551 0.700 0.469 0.545 0.529 6% Albania 0.551 0.647 0.297 0.562 0.720 6% Kazakhstan 0.548 0.885 0.337 0.465 0.588 6% Egypt 0.542 0.891 0.364 0.343 0.658 13% Argentina 0.542 0.615 0.453 0.565 0.554 0% Moldova 0.535 0.830 0.303 0.428 0.653 0% Ecuador 0.530 0.820 0.358 0.572 0.441 6% Iran 0.524 0.756 0.371 0.436 0.593 19% Guyana 0.516 0.722 0.355 0.521 0.518 38% Russia 0.515 0.984 0.415 0.330 0.449 6% Burkina Faso 0.514 0.570 0.296 0.583 0.620 19% Indonesia 0.499 0.441 0.221 0.509 0.811 6% Ghana 0.499 0.522 0.261 0.545 0.673 13% El Salvador 0.497 0.699 0.421 0.474 0.443 0% Costa Rica 0.495 0.518 0.442 0.493 0.533 25% Kyrgyzstan 0.495 0.820 0.247 0.391 0.603 6% South Africa 0.494 0.646 0.464 0.418 0.484 6% Morocco 0.492 0.428 0.281 0.504 0.737 0% Cambodia 0.489 0.676 0.212 0.452 0.662 13% Mali 0.489 0.524 0.397 0.482 0.560 38% Sudan 0.480 0.746 0.394 0.412 0.433 31% Brazil 0.479 0.527 0.525 0.418 0.457 0% Dominican Republic 0.473 0.736 0.292 0.429 0.503 6% Colombia 0.458 0.774 0.397 0.416 0.324 0% Philippines 0.457 0.446 0.426 0.500 0.453 6% Malawi 0.457 0.282 0.319 0.519 0.663 13% Nicaragua 0.453 0.587 0.298 0.420 0.540 6% Burundi 0.452 0.597 0.333 0.465 0.448 31% Myanmar 0.447 0.535 0.297 0.396 0.582 25% Yemen 0.441 0.705 0.258 0.329 0.540 38%

45 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Country Overall Score Capacity Process Legitimacy Outcomes Imputed Data Zimbabwe 0.438 0.705 0.274 0.363 0.479 6% India 0.438 0.532 0.291 0.415 0.539 0% Peru 0.434 0.622 0.343 0.390 0.429 0% Liberia 0.432 0.596 0.206 0.441 0.526 13% Guatemala 0.426 0.444 0.370 0.474 0.420 6% Guinea 0.425 0.331 0.390 0.448 0.507 38% Cote d'Ivoire 0.423 0.500 0.330 0.408 0.474 13% Tanzania 0.418 0.655 0.280 0.478 0.317 13% Madagascar 0.416 0.321 0.280 0.487 0.554 13% Zambia 0.416 0.353 0.371 0.434 0.490 13% Paraguay 0.405 0.653 0.348 0.435 0.247 25% Bolivia 0.403 0.557 0.264 0.359 0.472 0% Ethiopia 0.400 0.427 0.382 0.423 0.375 19% Honduras 0.399 0.461 0.340 0.407 0.403 25% Sierra Leone 0.397 0.436 0.179 0.382 0.603 0% Mexico 0.394 0.780 0.246 0.264 0.384 0% Venezuela 0.381 0.676 0.191 0.360 0.372 13% Cameroon 0.376 0.414 0.195 0.356 0.549 6% Bangladesh 0.375 0.244 0.195 0.328 0.701 6% Mozambique 0.349 0.534 0.249 0.394 0.265 25% Pakistan 0.349 0.729 0.239 0.173 0.348 13% Uganda 0.312 0.224 0.219 0.411 0.372 6% Kenya 0.298 0.214 0.180 0.322 0.456 0% Congo, DRC 0.272 0.440 0.195 0.227 0.268 38% Nigeria 0.255 0.416 0.156 0.264 0.226 0%

46 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

The World Internal Security and Police Index (WISPI) ranks 127 countries based on 16 indicators across four domains. The core aim when developing the Index was to be able to rank as many countries as possible on their level of police responsiveness to internal security. This meant that indicators with minimal data coverage had to be removed, replaced, or modified to allow for the broadest level of country coverage.

Table B1: Domain and Indicator Weights

Domain Weight Indicator Weighting % Domain % Index

Police 3 33% 6.67% Armed Forces 2 22% 4.44% Capacity 1.5 Private Security 2 22% 4.44% Prison Capacity 2 22% 4.44%

Corruption 3 27% 7.27%

Effectiveness 3 27% 7.27% Process 2 Bribe Payments 3 27% 7.27% to Police Underreporting 2 18% 4.85%

Due Process 2 25% 6.67%

Confidence in Police 2 25% 6.67% Legitimacy 2 Public Use, 2 25% 6.67% Private Gain Political Terror 2 25% 6.67%

Homicide 2 25% 6.67%

Violent Crime 2 25% 6.67% Outcomes 2 Terrorism 2 25% 6.67% Public Safety 2 25% 6.67% Perceptions Methodology

Appendix B: Appendix

47 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Selection Criteria Data Imputation and Issues Indicators from the Global Peace Index Countries with either a population of less than used expert assessment by the Economist one million people or a land size of less than Intelligence Unit (EIU) to fill in any data 10,000 km squared were not considered for gaps. The EIU has country experts in the selection in the Index. Countries were also majority of countries around the world. excluded from the Index if they were currently These experts liaise with local officials, in a state of severe internal conflict (for journalists, and experts in order to make example, Syria) as measuring internal security estimates for missing data. For indicators and police responsiveness in such countries that were not taken from the Global would not produce meaningful results. Severe Peace Index, the Index used the k-nearest internal conflict was defined as having the neighbor method of imputation. maximum score of 5 on the Global Peace Index Intensity of Internal Conflict indicator.

Although data was imputed for some countries, all countries with less than 55 per cent of data were automatically excluded from the Index, as were some countries that had no data for all the indicators in a single domain.

With regards to indicators, where multiple data sources were available, comparability was prioritized over data coverage. For example, the violent crime indicator could have been a qualitative indicator (for example, the violent crime indicator from the Global Peace Index), a police recorded quantitative indicator (the UNODC rape, robbery, and assault figures) or a quantitative survey figure (Gallop World Poll data on assault). Ideally the indicator would have been based on police recorded data, but comparability issues across countries and regions meant that the UNODC data would have given misleading results. Firstly, there were definitional differences that led to vastly different total counts (stemming from whether a person who was the victim of multiple crimes would be counted once or for every single crime). Secondly, there were issues around police recording methods (often centring on whether a crime was recorded upon suspicion or upon conviction). Finally, underreporting rates varied vastly from country to country, making valid comparisons between police recorded data difficult.

48 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Table B2: Indicator Tables

Capacity Process

Police Officers Corruption

Number of Police and Internal Security Full Name Control of Corruption Full Name Officers per 100,000 people Source WB - World Governance Indicators Source UNODC - Crime Trends Survey Weight (% of Domain) 27% Weight (% of Domain) 33% Weight (% of Index) 7.27% Weight (% of Index) 6.67% Score Minimum -2.50 Score Minimum 0 Score Maximum 2.50 Score Maximum 350 Measurement Period 2013 Measurement Period 2012 The Economist Intelligence Unit supplied Notes estimates for countries which are not covered by the Crime Trends Survey Effectiveness

Criminal Justice effectiveness, Full Name Armed Forces impartial, respects rights

Number of Armed Service Personnel Source World Justice Project Full Name per 100,000 people Weight (% of Domain) 27% Source IISS - Military Balance Weight (% of Index) 7.27% Weight (% of Domain) 22% Score Minimum 0.00 Weight (% of Index) 4.44% Score Maximum 1.00 Score Minimum 0 Measurement Period 2014 Score Maximum 350

Measurement Period 2013 Bribe Payments to Police

% of Respondents who Paid a Bribe to Private Security Full Name a Police Officer in the Past Year Number of Private Security Contractors Full Name Source Global Corruption Barometer per 100,000 people Weight (% of Domain) 27% Source Small Arms Survey Weight (% of Index) 7.27% Weight (% of Domain) 22% Score Minimum 0% Weight (% of Index) 4.44% Score Maximum 80% Score Minimum 0 Measurement Period 2014 Score Maximum 350

Measurement Period 2010 Underreporting The Economist Intelligence Unit supplied Notes estimates for countries which are not Ratio of Police Reported Thefts to Survey Full Name covered by the Crime Trends Survey Reported Thefts

Prison Capacity Source IEP Analysis Weight (% of Domain) 18% Ratio of Prisoners to Official Prison Full Name Capacity Weight (% of Index) 4.85% Source World Prison Population Project Score Minimum 0.00% Weight (% of Domain) 22% Score Maximum 25.00% Weight (% of Index) 4.44% Measurement Period 2010-2013 Score Minimum 0.9

Score Maximum 1.5

Measurement Period 2013

49 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

Legitimacy Outcomes

Due Process Homicide

Due process of law and rights Number of Intentional Homicides per Full Name Full Name of the accused 100,000 people

Source World Justice Project Source UNODC - Crime Trends Survey

Weight (% of Domain) 25% Weight (% of Domain) 25%

Weight (% of Index) 6.67% Weight (% of Index) 6.67%

Score Minimum 0.00 Score Minimum 0.00

Score Maximum 1.00 Score Maximum 10.00

Measurement Period 2014 Measurement Period 2013

Confidence in Police Violent Crime

% of Respondents who have Confidence in Full Name Full Name % Assaulted or mugged in the Last Year Their Local Police Source Gallup World Poll Source Gallup World Poll Weight (% of Domain) 25% Weight (% of Domain) 25% Weight (% of Index) 6.67% Weight (% of Index) 6.67% Score Minimum 20% Score Minimum 0% Score Maximum 100% Score Maximum 25% Measurement Period 2014 Measurement Period 2010-2012

Public Use, Private Gain Terrorism

Government officials in the police and the Composite measure of deaths, injuries, Full Name Full Name military do not use public office for private gain and incidents of terrorism Source World Justice Project Source Global Terrorism Index

Weight (% of Domain) 25% Weight (% of Domain) 25%

Weight (% of Index) 6.67% Weight (% of Index) 6.67%

Score Minimum 0.00 Score Minimum 0

Score Maximum 1.00 Score Maximum 10

Measurement Period 2014 Measurement Period 2013

Political Terror Public Safety Perceptions

Use of Force by Government Against Perceptions of safety walking alone Full Name Full Name Its Own Citizens at night Source Political Terror Scale Source Gallup World Poll

Weight (% of Domain) 25% Weight (% of Domain) 25%

Weight (% of Index) 6.67% Weight (% of Index) 6.67%

Score Minimum 1.00 Score Minimum 0%

Score Maximum 5.00 Score Maximum 100%

Measurement Period 2013 Measurement Period 2014

50 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016

1. ‘Collecting Crime Data Indicators and 13. Lee Ellis, Kevin M. Beaver, John Wright Measurement’, Forum on Crime and Handbook of Crime Correlates. Society, Volume 7. UNODC, 2008. Academic Press, 2009

2. Alex R. Piquero, David Wesiburd 14. Mamdooh A. Abdelmottlep,(2009), (eds.) Handbook of Quantitative The Police Thought, Intellectual Criminology. Springer, 2010 Development, Future Vision, And Historical Foundation, Sharjah Police 3. Carl B. Klockars, Sanja Kutnjak Ivkovic, Research Centre, Sharjah UAE. Maria R. Haberfeld Enhancing Police Integrity. Springer, 2006 15. Maria Krisch, Manuel Eisner, Christopher Mikton, and Alexander 4. Chris Lewis ‘Crime and Justice Butchart. Global Strategies to Reduce Statistics Collected by International Violence by 50% in 30 Years: Findings Agencies’ European Journal on from the WHO and University of Criminal Policy and Research. Volume Cambridge Global Violence Reduction 18, Issue 1, pp 5-21, 2012. Conference 2014. Cambridge: 5. Commission on Crime Prevention and University of Cambridge, 2015 Criminal Justice ‘World Crime Trends 16. Report of the Secretary General and Emerging Issues and Responses ‘State of Crime and Criminal Justice in the Field of Crime Prevention and Worldwide’ Thirteenth United Nations Criminal Justice’, United Nations Congress on Crime Prevention and Economic and Social Council, 2014. Criminal Justice, 2015. 6. Dominique Wisler, Ihekwoaba 17. Sanja Kutnjak Ivkovic Fallen Blue D. Onwudibe (eds.) Community Knights: Controlling Police Corruption. Policing: International Patterns and Oxford University Press, 2005 Comparative Perspectives. CRC Press, 2009 18. Sanja Kutnjak Ivkovic, Maria R. Haberfeld Measuring Police Integrity 7. Global Peace Index Report 2015. Across the World: Studies from Institute for Economics and Peace, Established Democracies and 2015. Countries in Transition. Springer, 2015 8. Global Study on Homicide 2013: 19. Shlomo Giora Shoham, Paul Knepper, Trends, Contexts, Data UNODC, Martin Kett (eds.) International United Nations Publication, Sales Handbook of Criminology. CRC Press, No.14.IV.1, 2014. 2010 9. Harold Becker, Donna Becker 20. Terrence K. Jelly, Seth G. Jones, James Handbook of the World’s Police. E. Barnett II A Stability Police Force for Scarecrow Press, 1986 the United States: Justifications and 10. International Statistics on Crime and Bibliography Options for Creating U.S. Capabilities Justice. HEUNI, Publication Series No. 21. Zelia Gallo, Nicola Lacey, David 64, 2010 Soskice ‘Comparing Serious Violent 11. Jessica Woodhams, Craig Bennell Crime in the US and England and (eds.) Crime Linkage: Theory, Wales: Why it Matters, and How it Research, and Practice. CRC Press, Can Be Done’ LSE Law, Society and 2015 Economy Working Papers, 16/2014 12. Jianhong Liu, Susyan Jou, Bill Hebenton (eds.) Handbook of Asian Criminology. Springer, 2013 Appendix C: Appendix

51

World Internal Security and Police Index 2016 > Response

General Guidelines for the reform of police and internal security

After having reviewed results of World With a lack of strategic thinking and Internal Security and Police Index (WISPI), disregard of professionalism, iron grip seeing the contrast in police performance policing trends like torture, repression and police services in general, the against citizens have prevailed. As following are some guidelines for reforms. a result, security has weakened and They are intended to improve police work the gap widened between people and which the International Police Science regime. Moreover police have become an Association (IPSA) deemed important embodiment of the gloomy face of some following WISPI. With this end in view, regimes and increased attention directed the concept of professional police should to political security at the expense of be adopted replacing current police social security. procedure.

In my opinion with regard to modernisation of the police and police reform in general, seven major themes or stages should be followed:

1 Developing policing strategies 2 Promoting the concept of civilized policing 3 Reform of internal organisational structures and enhancing human resources in police 4 Reform of the police education system 5 Reform of police training 6 Increased reliance on use of technology in police work 7 Privatisation of some police services

1 Stage One Developing policing strategies

1. A strategy 2. Building a 3. Providing an for the Ministry culture of excellence encouraging environment of Home Security in police institutions for creativity

Police work should stand on a scientific, Developing a culture that embraces Providing and encouraging an professional and legal basis with a clear the goals and objectives stated above environment supportive of creativity in vision of their mission, goals, values, should be coupled with a conceptual security work is one of the most important strategic objectives and measures for model based on international standards motivators for police personnel. This can strategic results. Vision should be known where they exist, and incorporate sound be increased by providing the resources and understood by all personnel within principles of management and leadership necessary to encourage innovation. Civil the police service and must be based on in the various divisions and units of the community institutions should be urged achieving security and safety for all those police service. to bring forward ideas and suggestions living in the country. Values required of that can contribute to developing security police personnel should include honesty, Strategic concepts involve the adoption work, encouraging the exchange of truthfulness, integrity, just protection of of security bodies to ensure quality information and enhancing constructive human rights, creativity, excellence, team and excellence based on international debate. Creativity in security work can spirit and support of social security of all standards of policing. Policing has its also be achieved through focusing on community segments. own standards governing performance scientific security research and entering with the use of discretion on a limited into partnership with universities and Strategic objectives should focus on: scale. Major operations for each police think tanks for the study of different > The best investment in human department should be clearly defined as security issues, and hence apply resources well as authorities and personnel assigned the outcome of such studies to the > Effective use of financial and with their implementation. Review and existing security problems. By providing technological resources continuous improvement systems should opportunities for researchers to study the > Working with community partners also be defined and effective channels of police environment the beneficiaries will > Ensuring readiness and communication with all police personnel be both the community and the police. preparedness should be created. Developing a culture > Providing security and safety of excellence among police personnel is > Maintaining public confidence of great importance in developing police Finally there must be established work. standards for achieving strategic objectives in order to measure levels of police performance on a scientific basis. With a lack of strategic thinking and disregard of professionalism, iron grip policing trends like torture and repression against citizens have prevailed. 2 World Internal Security and Police Index 2016 > Response

Stage Two Promoting the concept of civilized policing

The concept of civilized policing consists of two major elements namely: the way in which the police serve the public and the measurement of police services. The first element requires concepts of community policing and neighbourhood policing being applied, and successful theories adopted. The “broken window” theory, and intelligence led policing are two examples, as are the formation of community partnerships with the public, and the formation of security councils in the neighbourhoods. These should include representatives of the public who can present their views on the way in which police operate. Memoranda of Understanding (MOU’s) and cooperation with civil community institutions can help establish offices to assist victims and security centres for social support. The second element includes the measurement of police services in terms of public satisfaction, response times to call for service, and other standard measures of police performance. This includes the use of technology in police investigations including cameras for interviewing and interrogations to minimise dependence on physical force to gain confessions; and to increase the use of information technology to aid in investigations.

Stage Three Reform of the internal organisational structure and enhancing human resources in police

Security institutions, or ministries of interior, should be re-structured in order to support the concept of police specialisation, and establish a system for Memoranda of Understanding police personnel that ensures job security. (MOU’s) and cooperation with civil The aforementioned system should be established in a way that eradicates the community institutions can help caste system, minimises job and financial establish offices to assist victims and differences and ensures fair distribution of police resources and allocations. There security centres for social support. should be no discrimination among police departments as all are within the same police organisation.

3 Stage Four Reform of the police education system

1. Modifying the education structure of police colleges, 2. Establishing colleges of academies, institutes and schools Criminal Justice

Currently, most police colleges and colleges for the different specialisations The criminal justice system involves the institutes are similar to faculties of would be established. These might police, public prosecution, the judiciary law with security studies. Law studies include the Criminal Investigation & system and corrections or prisons. represent 70% of the total curriculum Interrogation College, Traffic & Roads These organisations are supposed to while police studies represent 30%. College, Civil Defense, Safety and Fire- complement each other. The failure These percentages do not align with crime fighting College, Order Maintenance & to develop assistants for senior police development. For example, in the area of Pubic Security College and the Forensic officers, public prosecutors and judges crime control and investigation, crimes Laboratories & Forensic Medicine College indicates that we are paying more like money laundering require a thorough and so on. In the third year a student might attention to senior staff rather than awareness of business and computer further specialise in disciplines within executive personnel. sciences while crimes like antiquities specific branches. For example, if he is in smuggling require both archaeology and the Criminal Investigation & Interrogation Criminal Justice Colleges are found security awareness. With the increase of College, he could specialise in the crimes everywhere around the world. In the community awareness and the increasing against persons or in financial crimes. United States of America there are more role of the police in the development of In the final year, a student could further than 2200 colleges and universities countries, police performance has not expand his knowledge in one or more with Criminal Justice programs, and the met public expectations. areas. graduates of these colleges are working in almost all aspects of the criminal justice The problem can be solved in two phases, The advantage of such change would be to programs and criminal justice system. the first through expanding the training place more attention on the study of police They are involved in policing and law of specialised officers to more effectively science, which has developed throughout enforcement, supervision of judgments, support the specialisation system that the world. Progress in this has been court management, as clerks for the has become more common in police hindered by a lack of knowledge by many judiciary and as managers of prisons. work. The graduates of law colleges involved in police education indicates They also play a role in private security, could be employed as investigators in that many police educators are unaware the military and national security sectors. police stations; the graduates of physical of how much the field has expanded, with Countries should be encouraged to education colleges, for example, might greater emphasis on crime investigation, establish such colleges. be assigned to order maintenance; the human rights, community policing, and graduates of the colleges of medicine the use of technology. Unfortunately the would work in the police hospitals, and inability of police officers to detect crimes graduates of biology and chemistry would has become a justifiable reason for them work in forensic science laboratories to adopt illegal methods of detention, or forensic medicine; graduates of the torture and oppression. colleges of engineering in physical security and infrastructure protection; and Another advantage would be to promote graduates of colleges of information and professionalism in police work which media in the fields of public information is similar to any other profession, such and media relations. as engineering, science and medicine. Professionalism requires a high degree of The second phase would be the education and training. The concept of establishment of a university for police having officers who can work everywhere science that would include the study of and do everything is no longer acceptable. general and basic police sciences in the first year, and then the student would 4 specialise in the second year in one of the areas available in the university, where World Internal Security and Police Index 2016 > Response

Stage Five Reform of police training

Police work should be supported by specialised training for all those working in the field, whether inside or outside the work environment. Specialised training should focus in particular on developing positive relationships with the public on human rights, police technologies and public security. These areas of training may already be offered by the training authorities but training involves more than a focus on the subject area. It should also focus on the content of the training, the qualifications of the instructor, the training environment and the evaluation methods that measure the outcomes of the training. We observed that most of the instructors are experienced police leaders whose experience is valuable but does not automatically mean that we should rely on them as the pillars of training. The importance of specialisation in the field of training and the ability to develop training curricula is particularly important as a means of exchanging knowledge in the security field.

Stage Six Increased reliance on use of Technology in police work

Police organisations should increase their reliance on technology especially in the fields of: Specialised training should > Police management > Infrastructure protection focus on developing positive > Security operations relationships with the public on > The sharing of security information > Criminal investigation human rights, police technologies > Resource allocation and public security. > Traffic control > Crime prevention

Technology can help develop professionalism and minimise the use of the traditional policing practices associated with torture and intimidation to obtain confessions or extract information.

5 Stage Seven Privatisation of some police services

Police worldwide are assigned with tasks of utilities police, the traffic police, prisons, civil defence and civil safety. This includes tasks such as firefighting and rescue, issuing of ID cards and travel documents. This has led to the increased diversity and complexity of police work being done across multiple areas.

Privatisation of some police work is one solution which would lead to:

> Authorised civil entities carrying out the work of utilities, > Prisons being under the total licensing, defense, and civil safety. This would be under the supervision of the Ministry of supervision of the police organisation allowing services to be Justice, and guard of private offered by private companies with the State’s control over fees companies. Police should and charges of these services. only be responsible for security supervision.

> The big economic > Development of legal > Expansion of the role of establishments, e.g. guidelines and procedures the private security sector jewellery and gold stores, for the issuance of licenses to carry out some of the companies and private to private guard firms. traditional tasks that take enterprises appointing This would coordinate up the time of the police and special and well trained organisation with economic do not contribute to public guards, under the supervision establishments specialised safety. of the police. in security and guarding.

Privatisation of many services will greatly assist in freeing up time for sufficient forces of officers, warrant officers and policemen to carry out the fundamental tasks of the police work.

These are only some ideas, and there are many more of the same. For those who wish to go into more depth in the field of police work development many books and research articles have been published. The above recommendations are based on my long experience in the field of police work and on my experience in areas of police concepts studies and research.

Professor Mamdooh Abdelhameed Abdelmottlep (PhD, JD) Professor of Criminal Justice Management & Security Expert Executive Chairman of International Police Science Association ‘’IPSA’’

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