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UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE AN EXAMINATION OF INTERNATIONAL CRISES: THE EFFECT OF DECISION MAKER STRESS ON CRISIS MANAGEMENT , ATTRIBUTES, AND OUTCOMES IN NON -PROTRACTED CONFLICT AND PROTRACTED CONFLICT CRISES A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO T HE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy BY GREG ORY ROY COWAN Norman, Oklahoma 2007 UMI Number: 3254416 Copyright 2007 by Cowan, Gregory Roy All rights reserved. UMI Microform 3254416 Copyright 2007 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346 AN EXAMINIATION OF INTERNATIONAL CRISES: THE EFFECT OF DECISION MAKER STRESS ON CRISIS MANAGEMENT, ATT RIBUTES, AND OUTCOMES IN NON -PROTRACTED CONFLICT AND PROTRACTED CONFLICT CRISES A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE GRADUATE COLLEGE BY ___ ____________________ Kelly R. Damphousse , Chair ___ ____________________ Trina L. Hope ___ _______________ _____ Nicole T. Judice -Campbell ___ ____________________ Susan S. Nash ___ ____________________ Joseph L. Rodgers © Copyright by GREGORY ROY COWAN 2007 All Rights Reserved Acknowledgements This dissertation woul d not have been possible without the assistance, support, encouragement, friendship, and love of many people. I want to thank my fantastic chair, Dr. Kelly Damphousse. Your guidance throughout this process has been invaluable. I also want to recognize t he rest of my committee, Drs. Hope, Judice -Campbell, Nash, and Rodgers. I could not have picked a better committee for this project. This dissertation and degree would never have happened without my wonderful parents, Howard and Sue Cowan. I cannot pu t into words the gratitude I have for your love and support throughout my education. From the time you dropped me off at Penland Dormitory in Waco to celebrating this PhD, you are the reason that I have succeeded in my various education experiences. This dissertation is a reflection of your influence in my life. Recognition also goes to the wo rld’s best in -laws, Carl and Kenna Gene Bennett. Your encouragement and support throughout the past four years has meant more than you can ever imagine. I am thri lled that you can celebrate this achievement with me. Recognizing that others have been trail blazers before me, I want to thank Cohort III of the Organizational Leadership program. Our class times together are some of the fondest memories I have in my educational career. In particular, I want to thank my dear friends Krista Dana, Dave Harris, Elizabeth Freeland, and Joy Magowan. Your love, encouragement, and support helped me survive and thrive in the rigors of this PhD program. iv None of my success would have been possible without the support of my former supervisor at the Rhein -Main Air Base Family Support Center , Mrs. Judy Maughan. If you had not allowed me the time to pursue this degree, I would not have the opportunities that I now have as a re sult of this dissertation. And of course, I must recognize the most wonderful and supportive spouse known to man. Teresa, you have been by my side every s tep of the way in this program. Your love, patience, and encouragement have motivated and strengthe ned me. I know it hasn’t always been a smooth and easy ride over the past four years. I also know that it has all been worth it, and I hope and pray that this degree will help our dreams come true! And finally, I must thank and acknowledge God, the On e from whom all blessings flow. I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me , and this dissertation is definitely a testimony to that promise . It is my desire that my life and work reflect the love and goodness of our Heavenly Father. “Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.” Matthew 5:9 (King James Version) v Table of Contents Title Page i Signature Page ii Copyright Page iii Acknowledgements iv Table of Contents vi Lis t of Illustrations vi ii Abstract xi Chapter 1 - Introduction 1 Research Questions 3 Definitions 5 Foreign Policy Crisis 7 International Crisis 7 Protracted Conflict 7 Research Design Overvi ew 8 Chapter 2 – Theory/Literature Review 10 Realism and External/International Factors 12 Innenpolitik and Internal/Domestic Factors 16 Summary and Key Elements 19 Decision -Making Units 20 Stress 21 Protracted Conflicts 23 Chapter 3 – Hypotheses 27 Hypotheses 1a and 1b 27 Hypotheses 2a and 2b 29 Hypotheses 3a and 3b 31 Hypotheses 4a and 4b 34 Hypotheses 5a and 5b 36 Chapter 4 – Methods 39 Independent Var iable 39 Dependent Variables 41 Moderating Variable 44 Control Variables 44 Research Design and Statistical Methods 49 Ch apter 5 – Data Analysis and Discussion 51 Hypotheses 1a and 1b 58 Discussion of H1 66 Hypotheses 2a and 2b 69 Discussion of H2 76 Hypotheses 3a and 3b 78 Discussion of H3 86 Hypotheses 4a and 4b 89 Discussion of H4 96 Hypotheses 5a an d 5b 97 Discussion of H5 10 4 vi Summa ry 108 Chapter 6 – Conclusion 112 Lessons Learned 112 Limitations 116 Areas of Future Re search 117 Applications 118 Conclusion 11 9 References 121 Appendix 1 12 5 Appendix 2 137 vii List of Illustrations Table 1 Frequency Distributions for Independent, Dependent, 52-54 and Control Variables in Non -Protracted Conflict and Protracted Conflict Crises Table 2 Standardized and (Unstandardized) Coefficients for 59 -60 Linear Regres sion of Log Transformation of Crisis Response Time in Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 3 Standardized and (Unstandardized) Coefficients for 63 -64 Linear Regression of Log Transformation of Cris is Response Time in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 4 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 71 -72 of Large Decision Making Unit Size in Protracted Conflict Crises with Indep endent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 5 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 74-75 of Large Decision Making Unit Size in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 6 Coefficient s and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 80 -81 of Violent Crisis Response to Non -violent Crisis Trigger in Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 7 Coe fficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regressio n 83 -84 of Violent Crisis Response to Non -violent Crisis Trigger in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 8 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 90 -91 of Definitive Outcomes in Pr otracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 9 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 93 -94 of Definitive Outcomes in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 10 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 98 -99 of Increased Tension Following Crisis in Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 11 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regres sion 102 -103 of Increased Tension Following C risis in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress Table 12 Hypotheses Results 109 Table 13 Standardized and (Unstandardized) Coefficients for 13 8-139 viii Li near Regression of Log Transformation of Crisis Response Time in Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 14 Standardized and (Unstandardized) Coefficients for 140 -141 Linear Regressi on of Log Transformation of Crisis Response Time in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 15 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 14 2-14 3 of Large Decision Ma king Unit Siz e in Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 16 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 144 -145 of Large Decision Making Unit Size in Non -Protracted Confli ct Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 17 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 146 -14 7 of Violent Crisis Response t o Non -violent Crisis Trigger in Protracted Conflict Crises with Indepe ndent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 18 Coe fficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 148 -149 of Violent Crisis Response to Non -violent Crisis Trigger in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variabl e: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 19 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 150 -151 of Definitive Outcomes in Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 20 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 152 -15 3 of Definitive Outcomes in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 21 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regressio n 154 -155 of Increased Tension Following Crisis in Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Table 22 Coefficients and (Odds Ratios) for Logistic Regression 156 -15 7 of Increased Tension Follow ing Crisis in Non -Protracted Conflict Crises with Independent Variable: Decision Maker Stress (Reduced data set) Figure 1 Stress and Crisis Response Time 28 Figure 2 Stress and Probability of Large Decision Making Unit 31 Figure 3 Stress and Pr obability of Violent Crisis Response to 34 ix Non -Violent Crisis Trigger Figure 4 Stress and Probability of Def initive Outcome 36 Figure 5 Stress and Probability of Increased Tension Following 38 Crisis Figure 6 Elapsed Time from Crisis Trigger to Cr isis Response 41 x Abstract In the field of foreign policy analysis, there is a long history of research examining factors that impact decision making in conflicts, wars, and crises.