UNIDIR/88/22/Rev2 UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Geneva — ^ UNITED NATIONS < BIPASXIIENI f o r DISABUftMSNI AJVAULS befbsbhce L in m ^ f Conyentlonal forces and arms limitation in Europe Report by the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) prepared under the direction of Pierre Lellouche and Jirome Paolini UNITED NATIONS New York, 1989 NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication dp not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. ♦ * * The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Secretariat. UNIDIR/88/22/Rev.2 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. GV.E.89.0.6 ISBN 92-9045-036-3 02400P i i i ^ ^ UNITED HATKHIS OlPARiaiENI FOR DISAMMMSNI AFFAIB8 ^ BEBKEUCE LUSAiOC^ PREFACE ^ ...... In paragraphs 81 and 82 of the Final Document of the Tenth Special Session of the General As- sembly, the most comprehensive consensus statement on disarmament formulated to date by the international community , it was considered that "Together with negotiations on nuclear disarma- ment measures, the limitation and gradual reduction of armed fcnrces and conventional weapons should be resolutely pursued within the framework of progress towards general and complete disar- mament". States with larger military arsenals were especially urged to pursue such endeavours and Europe was specifically singled out as a priority region of the globe where agreement on mutual reductions and limitations of military potential could greatly contribute to the enhancement of international peace and security. The Washington Treaty between the USA and USSR on the Elimination of their Intermediate-range and Shorter-range nuclear missiles has given new momentum to discussions fra: further disarmament measures between the two main military alliances in both the nuclear and conventional fields and brought to the fore the controversial issue of the correlation between nuclear and conventional weapons in securing military stability in Europe. Situated as they are in the most densely armed region in the world, and having experienced two devastating wars in this century, the European states are the first to acknowledge the fundamental importance of reducing military tensions among themselves. However, divergences remain as to the concrete ways and means for the attainment of their security objectives on the basis of mutually acceptable reductions of their respective forces. This research report on conventional arms control has been prepared by a working group set up by IFRI. It begins by reviewing the long history of the MBFR process, the negotiating stances and the changes in them, and then indicates the current problems related to preparations for the future conference on conventional stability in Europe. There follows an analysis and assessment of the conventional forces which are concentrated in the central European zone, and a detailed presentation of the Western and Soviet approaches to conventional disarmament in the region. These factual sections, together with the evaluations based on them, are then taken up for the purposes of a discussion on the prospects for conventional stability, in which two different viewpoints are expressed. The report ends with a general conclusion, which emphasizes the recent rapid evolution in Soviet positions and proposals, as well as the need for the Western countries, and especially those in Western Europe, not to maintain a passive attitude in this regard. Thus the report constitutes a contribution to thinking on this subject, without seeking to provide a complete and definitive handbook for negotiations. UNIDIR is happy to publish it as such, as it has already published and will continue to publish a variety of viewpoints on this particularly important, complex and topical subject It is UNIDIR’s hope that such research reports will promote better appreciation of countries’ security requirements, thus helping to foster understanding to the satisfaction of all concerned. Jayantha DHANAPALA Director, UNIDIR UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research UNIDIR is an autonomous institution within the framework of the United Nations. It was established in 1980 by the General Assembly for the piupose of undertaking independent research on disarmament and related problems, particularly international security issues. The work of the Institute aims at: (a) Providing the international community with more diversified and complete data on problems relating to intemational security, the armaments race, and disarmament in all fields, particularly in the nuclear field, so as to facilitate progress, through negotiations, towards greater security for all States and towards the economic and social development of all peoples; (b) Promoting informed participation by all States in disarmament efforts; (c) Assisting ongoing negotiations on disarmament and continuing efforts to ensure greater intemational security at a progressively lower level of armaments, particularly nuclear armaments, by means of objective and factual studies and analyses; (d) Carrying out more in-depth, forward-looking, and long-term research on disarmament, so as to provide a general insight into the problems involved, and stimulating new initiatives for new negotiations. The contents of this publication are the responsibility of the authors and not of UNIDIR. Although UNIDIR takes no position on the views and conclusions expressed by the authors of its research reports, it does assume responsibility for determining whether they merit publication. UNIDIR Palais des Nations CH-1211 Geneva 10 Tel. (022) 734.60.11 V Table of Contents FOREWORD Pierre Lellouche and J6r6me Paolini........................................ vii LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN IFRI’S "CONVENTIONAL FORCES AND ARMS CONTROL” WORKING GROUP........................................................................................... ix CHAPTER I CONVENTIONAL DISARMAMENT IN EUROPE FROM THE MBFR NEGOTIATIONS TO TALKS ON STABILITY (W. Schiitze) .......................................................................... 1 CHAPTER n CONVENTIONAL FORCES IN CENTRAL EUROPE: THE MILITARY CONTEXT (Y. Boyer) .............................. 19 CHAPTER n i WESTERN PROBLEMS: THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE AND CONVENTIONAL DISARMAMENT (J. PaoUni)................................................. 33 CHAPTER rV THE SOVIET APPROACH; POLITICAL, MILITARY AND STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES OF NEGOTIATIONS (J. Paolini).................. 43 CHAPTER V THE FUTURE OF CONVENTIONAL STABILITY.............. 61 Discussion: Walter Schiitze..................................................... 61 Yves Boyer......................................................... 71 CONCLUSION Pierre LeUouche 77 FOREWORD Since the end of the Second World War, the political and military division of Europe has been characterized by a face-off between two military alliances and an unprecedented concentration of conventional forces on either side, with the military presence of the United States and the Soviet Union in the heart of the continent. Despite this confrontation, the numerous arsenals in the region and the tensions of the cold war, the longest period of peace experienced in European history has been preserved. Yet this peace - in which a decisive role has been played by that fundamental tool of deterrence and stabilization, nuclear weapons - was brought about only at the cost of political and human division of the peoples of Europe. To date the effort to control conventional weapons in Europe has played only a marginal role in this armed peace. The MBFR talks begun in October 1973, in which France did not participate, covered only a limited area in central Europe and failed to achieve the slightest tangible result in over450 sessions and 15 years of negotiations. Above and beyond the intrinsic technical complexity of conventional disarmament - counting rules, methods and means of imposing cuts or ceilings -the fact is that the parties, especially the United States and the Soviet Union, preferred to reach their objective of stability in Europe essentially by maintaining a military and political status quo rather than through mutually acceptable cuts in their arsenals. With the opening of new talks on conventional forces in Europe in Vienna on 6 March 1989, this state of affairs is being radically modified. These talks, which are linked to the CSCE process and gather together all the countries with a direct interest in the European security order, including France, in a truly significant area stretching from the Atlantic to the Urals, are taking place in a much more favourable context than in the past. The new directions of Soviet policy in the field of disarmament and the December 1987 Washington Treaty on the elimination of Soviet and American intermediate-range nuclear missiles have led to a marked quickening of the pace of the discussions on conventional disarmament, opening up prospects for continued stability in Europe but with genuinely lower force levels and more defensive military postures. But disarmament or the reduction of conventional arms and armed forces in Europe also means the inevitable modification of the political and territorial order inherited from the Second World War - an order characterized by