The Danger of the Zero Option; Instead, Reduce INF Forces to 100 Warheads on Each Side
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2018 Sartorius Christopher Ma
UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGEMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS Norman, OK 2018 WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY ___________________________ Dr. Ronald K. Gaddie, Chair ___________________________ Dr. Colin M. Barry ___________________________ Dr. Deven E. Carlson ___________________________ Dr. Jorge L. Mendoza ___________________________ Dr. Shad B. Satterthwaite © Copyright by CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS 2018 All Rights Reserved. This dissertation is dedicated to my family and all intelligence professionals, military and civilian, past and present, who have dedicated their lives to protecting our great nation and our allies. Acknowledgements Working on this doctoral dissertation has been both a joy and a challenge. This work would not have been possible without the support and encouragement of countless individuals. At the most personal level, I would like to thank my wife, Fulvia, for her support over the past three years of this doctoral program and for her care and love over the past 25 years. I wish to thank my son, Konrad, for providing inspiration, much needed breaks in my work routine, and for sharing lunch together at the OU cafeteria followed by our fun table tennis matches. I also would like to thank my parents, Tim and Wanda Sartorius, for instilling in me the value of a great education. I would also like to thank Dr. Shad Satterthwaite, always friendly, open, and upbeat for enthusiastically encouraging me to pursue a doctoral degree at OU and Dr. -
Antinuclear Politics, Atomic Culture, and Reagan Era Foreign Policy
Selling the Second Cold War: Antinuclear Cultural Activism and Reagan Era Foreign Policy A dissertation presented to the faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy William M. Knoblauch March 2012 © 2012 William M. Knoblauch. All Rights Reserved. 2 This dissertation titled Selling the Second Cold War: Antinuclear Cultural Activism and Reagan Era Foreign Policy by WILLIAM M. KNOBLAUCH has been approved for the Department of History and the College of Arts and Sciences by __________________________________ Chester J. Pach Associate Professor of History __________________________________ Howard Dewald Dean, College of Arts and Sciences 3 ABSTRACT KNOBLAUCH, WILLIAM M., Ph.D., March 2012, History Selling the Second Cold War: Antinuclear Cultural Activism and Reagan Era Foreign Policy Director of Dissertation: Chester J. Pach This dissertation examines how 1980s antinuclear activists utilized popular culture to criticize the Reagan administration’s arms buildup. The 1970s and the era of détente marked a decade-long nadir for American antinuclear activism. Ronald Reagan’s rise to the presidency in 1981 helped to usher in the “Second Cold War,” a period of reignited Cold War animosities that rekindled atomic anxiety. As the arms race escalated, antinuclear activism surged. Alongside grassroots movements, such as the nuclear freeze campaign, a unique group of antinuclear activists—including publishers, authors, directors, musicians, scientists, and celebrities—challenged Reagan’s military buildup in American mass media and popular culture. These activists included Fate of the Earth author Jonathan Schell, Day After director Nicholas Meyer, and “nuclear winter” scientific-spokesperson Carl Sagan. -
Managing Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East
04-3869-5 CH04 10/28/08 9:30 AM Page 93 BRUCE RIEDEL GARY SAMORE 4 Managing Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East CURRENT U.S. EFFORTS to stop Iran’s nuclear program have failed. For- tunately, however, because of technical limits, Iran appears to be two to three years away from building an enrichment facility capable of pro- ducing sufficient weapons-grade uranium quickly enough to support a credible nuclear weapons option. As a consequence, the incoming U.S. administration will likely have some breathing space to develop a new diplomatic approach to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. Part of this new approach should involve direct and uncon- ditional talks between the United States and Iran on a range of bilateral issues, as well as formal nuclear negotiations between Iran and the EU-3 plus 3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, plus China, Russia, and the United States). To make these negotiations effective, the new administration should seek agreement among the EU-3 plus 3 to support stronger political and economic sanctions if Iran rejects an offer to resolve the nuclear issue and improve bilateral relations with the United States. Faced with more attractive inducements and the prospect of more serious sanctions, the Iranian regime might be persuaded to limit its nuclear activities below the threshold of a nuclear breakout capability. If this new diplomatic effort fails to stop Iran from achieving comple- tion of a nuclear breakout capability (that is, the ability to produce sig- 93 04-3869-5 CH04 10/28/08 9:30 AM Page 94 94 BRUCE RIEDEL and GARY SAMORE nificant amounts of weapons-grade uranium), the United States will face a difficult choice: It could accept Iran as a nuclear-capable state with a breakout option and try to build firebreaks to prevent Iran from actually producing such material (and building nuclear weapons). -
Friend Or Ally? a Question for New Zealand
.......... , ---~ MeN AIR PAPERS NUMBER T\\ ELVE FRIEND OR ALLY? A QUESTION FOR NEW ZEALAND By EWAN JAMIESON THE INSTI FUTE FOR NATIONAL SI'R-~TEGIC STUDIES ! I :. ' 71. " " :~..? ~i ~ '" ,.Y:: ;,i:,.i:".. :..,-~.~......... ,,i-:i:~: .~,.:iI- " yT.. -.~ .. ' , " : , , ~'~." ~ ,?/ .... ',~.'.'.~ ..~'. ~. ~ ,. " ~:S~(::!?- ~,i~ '. ? ~ .5" .~.: -~:!~ ~:,:i.. :.~ ".: :~" ;: ~:~"~',~ ~" '" i .'.i::.. , i ::: .',~ :: .... ,- " . ".:' i:!i"~;~ :~;:'! .,"L': ;..~'~ ',.,~'i:..~,~'"~,~: ;":,:.;;, ','" ;.: i',: ''~ .~,,- ~.:.~i ~ . '~'">.'.. :: "" ,-'. ~:.." ;';, :.~';';-;~.,.";'."" .7 ,'~'!~':"~ '?'""" "~ ': " '.-."i.:2: i!;,'i ,~.~,~I~out ;popular: ~fo.rmatwn~ .o~~'t,he~,,:. "~.. " ,m/e..a~ tg:,the~6w.erw!~chi~no.wtetl~e.~gi..~e~ ;~i:~.::! ~ :: :~...i.. 5~', '+~ :: ..., .,. "'" .... " ",'.. : ~'. ,;. ". ~.~.~'.:~.'-? "-'< :! :.'~ : :,. '~ ', ;'~ : :~;.':':/.:- "i ; - :~:~!II::::,:IL:.~JmaiegMad}~)~:ib;:, ,?T,-. B~;'...-::', .:., ,.:~ .~ 'z • ,. :~.'..." , ,~,:, "~, v : ", :, -:.-'": ., ,5 ~..:. :~i,~' ',: ""... - )" . ,;'~'.i "/:~'-!"'-.i' z ~ ".. "', " 51"c, ' ~. ;'~.'.i:.-. ::,,;~:',... ~. " • " ' '. ' ".' ,This :iis .aipul~ ~'i~gtin~e ..fdi;:Na~i~real..Sfi'~te~ie.'Studi'~ ~It ;is, :not.i! -, - .... +~l~ase,~ad.~ p,g, ,,.- .~, . • ,,. .... .;. ...~,. ...... ,._ ,,. .~ .... ~;-, :'-. ,,~7 ~ ' .~.: .... .,~,~.:U7 ,L,: :.~: .! ~ :..!:.i.i.:~i :. : ':'::: : ',,-..-'i? -~ .i~ .;,.~.,;: ~v~i- ;. ~, ~;. ' ~ ,::~%~.:~.. : ..., .... .... -, ........ ....... 1'-.~ ~:-~...%, ;, .i-,i; .:.~,:- . eommenaati6'r~:~xpregseff:or ;ii~iplie'd.:;~ifl~in.:iat~ -:: -
Conyentlonal Forces and Arms Limitation in Europe
UNIDIR/88/22/Rev2 UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Geneva — ^ UNITED NATIONS < BIPASXIIENI f o r DISABUftMSNI AJVAULS befbsbhce L in m ^ f Conyentlonal forces and arms limitation in Europe Report by the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) prepared under the direction of Pierre Lellouche and Jirome Paolini UNITED NATIONS New York, 1989 NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication dp not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. ♦ * * The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Secretariat. UNIDIR/88/22/Rev.2 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. GV.E.89.0.6 ISBN 92-9045-036-3 02400P i i i ^ ^ UNITED HATKHIS OlPARiaiENI FOR DISAMMMSNI AFFAIB8 ^ BEBKEUCE LUSAiOC^ PREFACE ^ ...... In paragraphs 81 and 82 of the Final Document of the Tenth Special Session of the General As- sembly, the most comprehensive consensus statement on disarmament formulated to date by the international community , it was considered that "Together with negotiations on nuclear disarma- ment measures, the limitation and gradual reduction of armed fcnrces and conventional weapons should be resolutely pursued within the framework of progress towards general and complete disar- mament". States with larger military arsenals were especially urged to pursue such endeavours and Europe was specifically singled out as a priority region of the globe where agreement on mutual reductions and limitations of military potential could greatly contribute to the enhancement of international peace and security. -
French Vs. Australian Nuclear Policies: Convergences, Divergences and Avenues for Cooperation
French vs. Australian nuclear policies: convergences, divergences and avenues for cooperation Recherches & Documents N°19/2020 Eloise N. Watson December 2020 www.frstrategie.org French vs. Australian nuclear policies: convergences, divergences and avenues for cooperation SUMMARY FRENCH VS. AUSTRALIAN NUCLEAR POLICIES: CONVERGENCES, DIVERGENCES AND AVENUES FOR COOPERATION .......................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................... 1 1. STANCE ON NUCLEAR DETERRENCE .......................................................................................... 2 1.1. The Australian position ........................................................................................2 1.1.1. Nuclear weapons acquisition: a fleeting flirtation ................................................2 1.1.2. Nuclear option shelved; ‘extended nuclear deterrence’ prioritised ......................3 1.1.3. Continued reinforcement of extended nuclear deterrence in the post-Cold War era .....................................................................................................................4 1.2. The French position .............................................................................................4 1.2.1. The original strategic rationale: guarantee security, diplomatic standing and independence ....................................................................................................4 -
International Media and U.S. Foreign Policy by Kevin J, Mcnamara
Review Essays International Media and U.S. Foreign Policy by Kevin J, McNamara Lights, Camera, War Is Media Technology Driving Internutional Politics? By Johanna Neuman. (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1996. 327 pp. $23.95.) Negotiating in the Public Eye: Y&eimpact of the Ptes on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Negotiations. By Marc A. Genest. (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1995. 189 pp. $32.50.) ~n~~o~l News and Fon?z&zCoals. By Stephen Hess. (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, l!?%. 209 pp. $26.95.) i%e Cuptiw Press:Fomi@ Policy Crisesand the First Amendment. By Ted Galen Carpenter. (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 1995.315 pp. $14.95,paper.) News media, especially television, appear to be assuming an ever larger role in vital affairs of state. For example, the first major ~te~atio~l crisis following the cold war saw endless jostling by Washington and Baghdad to score propaganda points during the months leading up to Operation Desert Storm, which led Newsuxek to declare that “TV has once again become the water in which world events swim.“l CNN’s live coverage of the Persian Gulf War led some diplomats to declare that the lifeblood of the ~plomatic trade--the cable traf%c between embassies and foreign ministries-was mostly dead. “It’s useless for us to report what is happening,” one unidentified European diplomat remarked, “when everyone in our capital sees it all on television. By the time you’ve coded your cable, they know as much as you do.r’2 In addition, some of the bloodiest battles that heralded the collapse of communism during the 198‘+1991 period were fought over television facilities. -
NATO's Role in Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Arms Control
NATO’s Role in Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: A (Critical) History © 2021 IAI by Leopoldo Nuti ISSN 2280-6164 ABSTRACT This paper looks at the interaction between the Atlantic Alliance and the main arms-control negotiations of the nuclear age. The first part is dedicated to the role the Alliance played in the arms-control and non-proliferation process that shaped the global nuclear order during the Cold War. The second part of the paper discusses the Alliance’s adaptation to the post-Cold War period. In the new security environment that has emerged after the end of the bipolar confrontation, NATO has faced an increasing number of challenges in its efforts to reconcile its arms-control policy with its commitment to maintain a credible deterrence posture. NATO | Nuclear weapons | Arms control | Non-proliferation | Transatlantic keywords relations DOCUMENTI IAI 21 | 03 - JANUARY 2021 DOCUMENTI IAI 21 | 03 - JANUARY NATO’s Role in Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: A (Critical) History NATO’s Role in Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: A (Critical) History by Leopoldo Nuti* © 2021 IAI Introduction Can a military alliance such as NATO, which has never played a formal part either in the negotiation or in the implementation of any arms-control agreements, plausibly claim to have any role in the field of nuclear arms control and non- proliferation? And if it did, what would it be? What was the overall contribution of ISSN 2280-6164 the Alliance to the stability of the global nuclear order, during and after the Cold War? The purpose of this paper is to try and provide an answer to these questions by discussing the interaction between the Atlantic Alliance and the main arms- control negotiations of the nuclear age.1 As the paper will hopefully make clear, NATO has indeed been involved in shaping many arms-control decisions – albeit with a rather mixed record, given the limited weight it could have on these issues. -
Paper 2 Superpower Relations and the Cold War C1941-‐91
Year 11 Revision Period Study – Paper 2 Superpower Relations and the Cold War c1941-91 Revision Programme – Paper 2 Superpower Rivalry 1941-91 Paper 2 is one hour and forty five minutes long. It has two distinct sections ; Section A – Period Study - Superpower Rivalry 1941-91 ( 50 minutes) Section B – British Depth Study – Elizabethan England 1588-1601 (55 minutes) Section A – Three Questions. All assess AO1 and AO2. All rely on factual knowledge and understanding. Question 1- Explain two consequences of …. ( 8 marks) Allow 10 minutes for this answer. Write about two consequences – you only need to write half a page so be brief. Focus should only be on the effect of an event – good discourse markers to use would be as a result of; as a consequence; the effect was; so Question 2 Write a narrative account analysing… ( 8 marks) Allow 15 minutes. This answer expects a narrative explaining how events lead to an outcome. You are given two information prompts but are expected to add to this to gain the best marks. The key is to write an organised answer, putting events into the right order and most importantly showing how each event links to the next. There should be a clear beginning, middle and end to this response Question 3 Explain two of the following… the importance of xxx for …. ( 16 marks) Allow 25 minutes. You need to choose TWO from the three listed. You must explain the impact of an event – thinking what did this event lead to? What difference did this event make ? KEY TIP : Throughout revision focus on what events are; the effect they have on each other and the overall Cold War tensions. -
Security Without War a Post-Cold War Foreign Policy
SECURITY WITHOUT WAR A POST-COLD WAR FOREIGN POLICY Michael H. Shuman and Hal Harvey With a Foreward by Senator Paul Simon Westview Press Boulder • San Francisco • Oxford You will say at once that although the abolition of war has been the dream of man for centuries, every proposition to that end has been promptly discarded as impossible and fantastic. Every cynic, every pessimist, every adventurer, every swashbuckler in the world has always disclaimed its feasibility....But now the tremendous and present evolution of nuclear and other potentials of destruction has suddenly taken the problem away from its primary consideration as a moral and spiritual question and brought it abreast of scientific realism. It is no longer an ethical equation to be pondered solely by learned philosophers and ecclesiastics but a hard core one for the decision of the masses whose survival is the issue. – General Douglas MacArthur, 1955 CONTENTS Foreward, Senator Paul Simon Acknowledgments Introduction (n/a) Cold War Policies in a Post-Cold-War World Toward a New View of Security Organization of the Book Part I. Redefining Security 1. New Security Threats Military Threats Political Threats Economic Threats Environmental Threats A Comprehensive Policy 2. Limits to Force The Folly of U.S. Intervention The Recent Record for Other Users of Force Force as a Last Resort 3. Dangers of Arms Racing The Controlled Arms Race The War Risks of the Controlled Arms Race Political Insecurity Economic Security Environmental Security Security Without Arms Races Part II. Preventing and Resolving Conflicts 4. Political Roots of Conflict Strong Democracy and Interstate Peace Strong Democracy and Intrastate Peace Promoting Strong Democracy Abroad Promoting Strong Democracy at Home Perpetual Peace 5. -
George Shultz, Nuclear Statecraft and the Vision for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons1 Stephan Kieninger
George Shultz, Nuclear Statecraft and the Vision for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons1 Stephan Kieninger Summary As Secretary of State, George Shultz worked hard to help protect Ronald Reagan’s and Mikhail Gorbachev’s shared goal of a world free of nuclear weapons. This article looks into Shultz’s contribution to Reagan’s groundbreaking arms control diplomacy and its pivotal role for the peaceful end of the Cold War highlighting the contemporary significance of Reagan’s and Shultz’s vision at a time when the global challenge is to build from scratch a new arms control architecture for the 21th century, something that will need strength, patient statecraft and the long-term management of adversarial relations with Russia and China. The article sheds new light on the complexities of Ronald Reagan’s approach: On the one hand, Reagan wanted America’s victory in the battle with the Soviet Union. At the same time, he wanted to abolish nuclear weapons, and reducing nuclear weapons required patient statecraft and the relaunch of U.S.-Soviet cooperation. Ronald Reagan and George Shultz managed to weave these aims together combining strength and diplomacy in new ways in an effort to advance freedom and promote democracy. About the Author Stephan Kieninger is an independent historian and the author of two books on the history of détente and Euro-Atlantic security: The Diplomacy of Détente. Cooperative Security Policies from Helmut Schmidt to George Shultz (2018) and Dynamic Détente. The United States and Europe, 1964– 1975 (2016). He received his PhD from Mannheim University. Formerly, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Johns Hopkins SAIS, a fellow at the Berlin Center for Cold War Studies, and a senior researcher at the Federal German Archives. -
INF Treaty RECOMMENDATIONS
1288 THE INTERNATIONAL LAWYER its flaws, the United Nations remains one of the best hopes for advance- ment of the rule of law in the world. Respectfully submitted, Joseph P. Griffin Robert C. Mussehl Chairman, Section of Chairman, Standing Committee on International Law and Practice World Order Under Law William L. Robinson Chairman, Section of Individual Rights and Responsibilities American Bar Association Section of International Law and Practice Standing Committee on Law and National Security Report to the House of Delegates* III. INF Treaty RECOMMENDATIONS BE IT RESOLVED, That the American Bar Association urges the Senate of the United States to give its advice and consent to the ratification of the Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, which Treaty totally eliminates those missiles, and which is subject to effective verification; BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, That the American Bar Association recommends that, in future negotiations, the United States give priority to the negotiations on the Strategic Nuclear Arms Reduction Treaty and on conventional arms stability in Europe. *The report was prepared by the Section's Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament, Thomas Graham, Jr., Chairman. VOL. 22, NO. 4 SECTION RECOMMENDATIONS AND REPORTS 1289 REPORT The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional countries, was signed July I, 1968, ratified by the United States on November 24, 1969, and entered into force on March 5, 1970. In Article VI "Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament.