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UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGEMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS Norman, OK 2018 WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY ___________________________ Dr. Ronald K. Gaddie, Chair ___________________________ Dr. Colin M. Barry ___________________________ Dr. Deven E. Carlson ___________________________ Dr. Jorge L. Mendoza ___________________________ Dr. Shad B. Satterthwaite © Copyright by CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS 2018 All Rights Reserved. This dissertation is dedicated to my family and all intelligence professionals, military and civilian, past and present, who have dedicated their lives to protecting our great nation and our allies. Acknowledgements Working on this doctoral dissertation has been both a joy and a challenge. This work would not have been possible without the support and encouragement of countless individuals. At the most personal level, I would like to thank my wife, Fulvia, for her support over the past three years of this doctoral program and for her care and love over the past 25 years. I wish to thank my son, Konrad, for providing inspiration, much needed breaks in my work routine, and for sharing lunch together at the OU cafeteria followed by our fun table tennis matches. I also would like to thank my parents, Tim and Wanda Sartorius, for instilling in me the value of a great education. I would also like to thank Dr. Shad Satterthwaite, always friendly, open, and upbeat for enthusiastically encouraging me to pursue a doctoral degree at OU and Dr. Peggy Lerner, a great OU colleague, a fantastic OU leader in Europe, and a friend. She also provided strong encouragement while I was serving as the OU North America Advanced Programs Director and later as I transitioned to become a doctoral student. I will forever thank Dean Lee Williams for his amazing dedication and leadership with OU Advanced Programs, his recommendation that I teach for OU, and for his continuing mentorship and friendship. I want to recognize The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, History and Public Policy Program which was kind enough to invite me to attend their 2017 Seminar Institute on Conducting Archival Research. This fantastic experience helped prepare me for archival research in Berlin, Washington, DC, and Boston. Dr. Bernd Schaefer from George Washington iv University provided me information regarding the Ministry for State Security of the former German Democratic Republic Archive (BStU) in Berlin and Mr. Christian Dellit, an archivist at the BStU, was instrumental in helping find relevant documents for my review and sending copies to me in the United States. I also have great memories of our nice lunches together in Berlin during my November 2017 visit. My great friend Bengt Klemp from Hamburg was also key in facilitating my visit to the archive in Berlin. I want to thank Nate Jones, the definitive expert on the Soviet War Scare of 1983 from the National Security Archive in Washington, who took time out of his busy schedule to meet with me in late-February 2018 about my project and provide suggestions for additional sources. Ms. Michelle DeMartino, an archivist at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library, provided a great overview of their archival holdings along with prompt and courteous support during my March 2018 visit, making this as another highlight of my archival research effort. I am grateful to the OU Political Science Department for research funding assistance via the George B. Williams Award. Throughout this effort, my two great, long-time friends, Colonel Tim Henke (USAF, Retired) and Bengt Klemp have provided constant encouragement and support. I look forward to spending more time with them on future European and US bicycle tour/camping adventures. I wish to thank three key committee members: Dr. Shad Satterthwaite, Dr. Jorge Mendoza, and Dr. Deven Carlson. These three outstanding scholars and OU leaders were always professional, available, and willing to provide me their v very best professional advice, encouragement, and friendship. Thanks to Dr. Colin Barry for his work on the committee as well. Special thanks to Drs. Hertzke, Kenney, Ripberger, Tipler, and Shortel for making me feel welcome in the Political Science Department. Jeff Alexander, Graduate Programs Coordinator, is a key player and is widely recognized for doing such fine work to facilitate the degree program’s administrative requirements. Dr. Johnson, the department’s Graduate Liaison, was also helpful in facilitating the dissertation defense. Abby Young at the OU Graduate College is truly an amazing source of knowledge and was essential to successfully navigating the numerous degree requirements. Finally, I want to recognize and thank my fellow graduate students in the OU Political Science Department. As the “old guy” in the program, you were gracious in accepting me into the group and I have really enjoyed all the fun social events we have shared. I can’t thank them enough for your help in preparing me for the comprehensive exams. I wish them all the best as researchers, teachers, and leaders. If any readers are considering working with Drs. James “Larry” Regens (OUHSC), Ronald “Keith” Gaddie (OU), or Greg Russell (OU), please feel free to contact me at [email protected] or [email protected]. Although I have tried to be comprehensive, I am certain I have inadvertently overlooked some very key individuals. Please accept my deepest appreciation for your help and support. vi Table of Contents Acknowledgements .............................................................................................. iv List of Tables ........................................................................................................ xi List of Figures ...................................................................................................... xii Abstract ............................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1 – Introduction ..................................................................................... 1 RESEARCH PROBLEM ........................................................................................... 3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................. 6 Theory ........................................................................................................... 10 Hypothesis ..................................................................................................... 12 Variables ....................................................................................................... 13 Model ............................................................................................................ 14 Scope ............................................................................................................. 15 METHODOLOGY/PROCEDURES ........................................................................... 15 Analyzing Quality Warning Intelligence ...................................................... 16 Analyzing Policy Maker Receptivity Toward Intelligence........................... 18 Analyzing Objective Interpretation of Intelligence Warning ....................... 20 Accurate, Current Situation Assessment ....................................................... 20 CASE SELECTION AND THE LOGIC OF THE STUDY .............................................. 21 The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 ................................................................ 23 The Soviet War Scare of 1983 ...................................................................... 24 DATA SOURCES .................................................................................................. 26 Online Sources .............................................................................................. 26 Archival Sources ........................................................................................... 27 Secondary Sources ........................................................................................ 28 Specialized Training ..................................................................................... 28 Archival Research ......................................................................................... 29 CONTRIBUTIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE .................................................................. 30 DISSERTATION OUTLINE .................................................................................... 32 Chapter 2 – Warning Intelligence ..................................................................... 35 WARNING INTELLIGENCE – ANALYTIC METHODOLOGY .................................... 40 Strategic versus Tactical Warning ................................................................ 45 The Strategic and Tactical Warning Relationship ........................................ 46 Intelligence Challenges ................................................................................. 48 Policymaker Challenges ................................................................................ 49 Characteristics and Benefits of Effective Warning ....................................... 51 Indications and Warning Intelligence
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