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The Limits to Influence: the Club of Rome and Canada

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The Limits to Influence: the Club of Rome and Canada THE LIMITS TO INFLUENCE: THE CLUB OF ROME AND CANADA, 1968 TO 1988 by JASON LEMOINE CHURCHILL A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2006 © Jason Lemoine Churchill, 2006 Declaration AUTHOR'S DECLARATION FOR ELECTRONIC SUBMISSION OF A THESIS I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract This dissertation is about influence which is defined as the ability to move ideas forward within, and in some cases across, organizations. More specifically it is about an extraordinary organization called the Club of Rome (COR), who became advocates of the idea of greater use of systems analysis in the development of policy. The systems approach to policy required rational, holistic and long-range thinking. It was an approach that attracted the attention of Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. Commonality of interests and concerns united the disparate members of the COR and allowed that organization to develop an influential presence within Canada during Trudeau’s time in office from 1968 to 1984. The story of the COR in Canada is extended beyond the end of the Trudeau era to explain how the key elements that had allowed the organization and its Canadian Association (CACOR) to develop an influential presence quickly dissipated in the post- 1984 era. The key reasons for decline were time and circumstance as the COR/CACOR membership aged, contacts were lost, and there was a political paradigm shift that was antithetical to COR/CACOR ideas. The broader circumstances that led to the rise and fall of the COR/CACOR’s influential presence in Canada from 1968 to circa 1988 also provides a fascinating opportunity to assess political and intellectual tumult and change. Specific organizations where the COR/CACOR’s influential presence was felt included: the Ministry of State for Science and Technology, the International Development Research Centre, the Institute for Research on Public Policy, the Foundation for International Training, and the University of Guelph. iii Acknowledgements This dissertation would not have been possible without the assistance of a wide range of groups and individuals. A debt of gratitude is owed to the members of my supervisory committee: Drs Heather MacDougall, John English, Robert Campbell, Debora VanNijnatten, and, for a time, Catherine Wilson. A similar debt is owed to all listed in the Conversation and Correspondence sections of the bibliography. Content for the dissertation was also attained through the assistance of staff at the following: National Archives of Canada, University of Guelph Arboretum, North Gower Branch Ottawa Public Library, International Development Research Centre, Foundation for International Training and Playboy. In addition Kerry Tremblay’s editing was greatly appreciated. A large number of additional individuals provided sundry help. That list includes: Dr. J.C Thompson, the University of Waterloo’s History Graduate Students, and the University of Guelph Environmental Biology Department. Financial support was provided by: Memorial University of Newfoundland through the Pickersgill Fellowship; the University of Waterloo Scholarships, Teaching Assistantships and Sessional Teaching; the Ontario Graduate Scholarship as well as through employment at the Newfoundland and Labrador Royal Commission on Renewing and Strengthening Our Place in Canada; the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Conference Board of Canada. Of course none of this would have been possible without the support and patience of family, especially Robin and Dominic, friends, co-workers and rather understanding bosses. iv Table of Contents Page Declaration ii Abstract iii Acknowledgements iv Table of Contents v List of Illustrations viii Introduction: The Limits to Influence: Overview and Context 1 I:I The Trudeau Era – The Historiographical Absence of Systems Analysis 6 I:II Ivory Tower and Electoral Power 9 I:III Aurelio Peccei and Pierre Trudeau: Kindred Thinkers 11 I:IV Trudeau and Peccei: Idea Patrons and Their Organizations 19 I:V Idea Practitioners and the Spread of Influence 22 I:VI COR as a Catalyst Organization 24 I:VII The COR, NGOs and Policy Influence 27 I:VIII The Parallel Destinies 28 I:IX The End of the Beginning 32 Chapter 1: The Antecedents to Influence (Part 1) – The International Stage to 1972 34 1:1 Rachel Carson and the Interconnected Biological World 34 1:2 The OECD and the Impact of Science and Technology 38 1:3 NASA Images and a Finite World in an Infinite Space 40 1:4 Lester B. Pearson, Marshall McLuhan and the Interconnected World 43 1:5 “A Riotous Time” in the Global Village and ADELA 46 1:6 Peccei’s The Chasm Ahead and the Second Industrial Revolution 49 1:7 “Aurelio Peccei and Friends”: the Emergence of the Club of Rome 54 1:8 The COR as a Non-governmental Non-organization 60 1:9 The Predicament of Mankind and the COR’s Rationalist Crusade 64 1:10 Conclusion 68 Chapter 2: The Antecedents to Influence (Part 2) – The Canadian Setting to 1972 70 2: 1 Creating a Modern Bureaucracy Part 1: Diefenbaker and Glassco 71 2:2 Creating a Modern Bureaucracy Part 2: Pearsonian Tinkering 78 2:3 Creating a Modern Bureaucracy Part 3: Trudeau and the Functionalist in Power 81 2:4 Prime Minister Trudeau: The Holistic Rationalist in Power 85 2:5 The Spread of Ecological Consciousnesses From the US Into Canada 94 v 2:6 The IDRC, Futures Studies and the Third World 99 2:7 Conclusion 105 Chapter 3: The Antecedents to Influence (Part 3) – Systems Analysis to 1972 107 3:1 Cybernetics and Systems Theory: Keys to Functional Public Policy Development 108 3:2 General Systems Theory and Systems Analysis 111 3:3 Jay W. Forrester and Systems Analysis 115 3:4 Forrester, Meadows, the Club of Rome and The Limits to Growth 119 3:5 Systems Analysis and Functional Politics Canadian Style 137 3:6 Conclusion 140 Chapter 4: The Spread of Influence (Part 1) – Systems and the Horizontal Axis of Power 1968-1978 142 4:1 CACOR Established and Idea Practitioners 143 4:2 Maurice Lamontagne: The Troubled Road to Being a Senator 145 4:3 The Economic Council of Canada and Medium -Range Studies 149 4:4 The Lamontagne Commission and Canadian Science Policy 153 4:5 MOSST – The Federal Response to the Senate and OECD Criticisms 158 4:6 MOSST – the Formative Years – and Lamontagne 160 4:7 The Close MOSST – COR Relationship 169 4:8 The Close MOSST – CACOR Relationship 171 4:9 MOSST/CACOR and FIT 173 4:10 Conclusion 180 Chapter 5: The Spread of Influence (Part 2)–Systems Beyond the Horizontal Axis 1971-1988 183 5:1 A Futures Focus for the IRPP 184 5:2 The Creation and Growth of the Canadian Association for Futures Studies 196 5:3 CACOR, the Department of the Environment and the Global 2000 Project 202 5:4 CACOR, the University of Guelph and the 5000 Days Project 211 5:5 Conclusion 216 Chapter 6: The Decline of COR/CACOR Influence in Canada 1979-1988 219 6:1 From Keynesianism to Monetarism 219 6:2 The End of the Trudeau Era 225 6:3 John Turner and the New Approach to Policy 228 6:4 Out of the Loop: CACOR Post-Trudeau 231 6:5 Impact of Aurelio Peccei’s Death 235 6:6 Brian Mulroney and Market-Based Policy Development 245 6:7 CACOR Challenges 250 6:8 Verge of Collapse 255 6:9 Conclusion 261 vi Conclusion: The End of -- and Limits to -- Influence 263 C:1 Of the Persistence of Limits 268 C:2 The End of Influence 273 C:3 The Limits to Influence 277 Bibliography 279 vii List of Illustrations Figure 1: Contrasting Roads to Global Equilibrium p.26 Figure 2: Artist Dan Piraro, Used With Permission p.269 viii The Limits to Influence: Overview and Context This dissertation is about an idea called systems analysis that blended with an extraordinary organization called the Club of Rome (COR), and the circumstances that allowed the organization advocating the idea to have an influential presence in Canada during the Prime Ministerial reign of Pierre Elliott Trudeau from 1968 to 1984. This dissertation also concerns intellectual precursors to policy development advocated during Trudeau’s time in office. It is about the thinking behind how policy problems ought to have been approached from a particular theoretical viewpoint. It is not about the creation and implementation of specific policy initiatives during the Trudeau era. The rise and decline of the COR and its Canadian Association, (CACOR)’s influence occurred during Trudeau’s time in power. This was no coincidence. A synergistic relationship was created as the systems approach to policy development advocated by the COR/CACOR dovetailed with the Trudeau-era approach to and philosophy regarding public policy development. This dissertation, then, is a work of intellectual political history that examines how an idea becomes adopted by groups, spread via common connections, and adapted to suit differing circumstances. Historians are inherently storytellers. But they are bounded by the discipline’s requirements to prove a hypothesis based on careful observation of collected factual evidence. To draw an outline of events, or to limit an exploration of a topic to parameters established by limited models is not sufficient. Political science theories and policy analysis methodologies provide important insights and are inherently valuable. Academic fields such as political science provide an important lens for historians to view and understand the events in their narratives.
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