www.policymagazine.ca September—October 2019

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

Campaign 2019

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In This Issue 6 From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Campaign 2019 Canadian Politics and 7 Lori Turnbull Public Policy The Road to 170 9 John Delacourt EDITOR AND PUBLISHER Sunny Ways Redux? Not so Fast L. Ian MacDonald [email protected] 12 Yaroslav Baran ASSOCIATE EDITOR AND The Scheer Strength: Relatability DEPUTY PUBLISHER Brian Topp Lisa Van Dusen 15 [email protected] The NDP’s Ballot Question CONTRIBUTING WRITERS 17 Ziya Tong Thomas S. Axworthy, Mayday! M’aidez! Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano, 20 Karina Gould Margaret Clarke, Celine Cooper, Protecting Elections in a New Threat Environment Rachel Curran, Susan Delacourt, Patrick Gossage Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, 22 Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder, Could it Happen Here? Patrick Gossage, Frank Graves, Don Newman Shachi Kurl, Brad Lavigne, 25 Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman, The ‘Big E’ Election—Energy and the Environment Andrew MacDougall, Peter Mansbridge, 27 Jeremy Kinsman Carissima Mathen, Velma McColl, Being Back: Foreign Policy as a Campaign Issue David McLaughlin, David Mitchell, Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, 30 Kevin Page Fen Osler Hampson, Robin V. Sears, Is Fiscal Responsibility an Issue in the 2019 Campaign? Gil Troy, Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt, Anthony Wilson-Smith 33 Helaina Gaspard and Emily Woolner WEB DESIGN Because it’s 2019: Checking in on Gender Budgeting in Canada Nicolas Landry Peter Mansbridge [email protected] 36 The Debate that Changed Debates SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR Grace MacDonald 39 Column / Don Newman [email protected] In Case of Minority, Break Glass GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION 40 Shachi Kurl Monica Thomas Could Health Care be on the Ballot Again? [email protected] 43 Jan Hux Policy Canada Has Its Own Diabetes Crisis Policy is published six times annually by LPAC Ltd. The contents are copyrighted, but may be reproduced BOOK REVIEWS with permission and attribution in Review by Robert Lewis print, and viewed free of charge at 44 Trudeau: The Education of a Prime Minister the Policy home page at www.policymagazine.ca. John Ivison Printed and distributed by St. Joseph 45 Review by Robin V. Sears Communications, 1165 Kenaston Love & Courage: My Story of Family, Resilience and Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 Overcoming the Unexpected. Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf Lounges across Canada, as well as VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Now available on PressReader. COVER PHOTOS : Adam Scotti photo, : Flickr photo, Jagmeet Singh: Wikimedia photo, Elizabeth May: Keri Coles/ photo

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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Campaign 2019

elcome to our special pre- to get rid of Trudeau since “The short time,” writes Shachi Kurl of the An- election issue, Campaign road to doing this is to elect a Con- gus Reid Institute, “party leaders find W 2019. This full issue on the servative government.” For Elizabeth themselves compelled to say some- campaign sets the stage for the October May and the Greens, the 2019 elec- thing about our physical well being.” 21 election. It’s all here—the polling, tion represents a moment. As Ziya In a guest column, Diabetes Canada the policies and the players—at the na- Tong writes, the question is how May President Jan Hux asks whether the tional level and across the country. will weather the scrutiny. importing of insulin by the U.S. “rais- es concerns of potential drug shortag- Our cover package includes looks at n the modern era, democracies es on this side of the border.” She calls the four main parties and their lead- are aware of threats to their elec- it Canada’s “own diabetes crisis.” ers by seasoned strategists. Then we tions, of which the 2016 U.S. elec- consider the main issues, from cli- I tion cycle was the most obvious exam- Most campaigns have defining mo- mate change and taxes, to ple. Democratic Institutions Minister ments and in the modern Canadian pipelines. We look at Canadian policy Karina Gould writes of Canada’s pro- political era, none more so than the keystones, from fiscal frameworks and tective and pre-emptive response. The 1984 leaders’ debate, which changed health care to foreign policy. Progress other question is whether populism is the rules and rewards of the game. Pe- on women’s issues is also on the cam- growing in Canada. Patrick Gossage, ter Mansbridge captures the drama of paign agenda. former press advisor to Pierre Trudeau, the exchange between John Turner Lori Turnbull of Dalhousie Universi- wonders Could it Happen Here? and Brian Mulroney. Taken to task for ty takes us through a key set of num- a series of deathbed Liberal patronage One of the mega-issues in this cam- bers, specifically the 170 seats needed appointments, Turner said lamely: “I paign is bound to be to form a majority government in the had no option.” To which Mulroney and carbon taxes, which Don New- 338-seat House. There are many ways famously replied: “You had an option, man explores in The ‘Big E’ Election— to get there, but if they fall short, sir, you could have done better.” His- Energy and the Environment. that’s another story called minority tory was made at that moment. Thir- government. After a 2015 campaign in which fiscal ty-five years on, they still talk about it. policy played a surprising role, former Which brings us to the four main And, in his regular column. Don Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin parties, their leaders, and what they Newman provides a prescription for Page examines the Trudeau govern- need to do in the campaign. For Jus- mitigating chaos in the event of a mi- ment’s record and asks Is Fiscal Respon- tin Trudeau, this is not looking like a nority House. sibility an Issue in the 2019 Campaign? campaign of “sunny ways” but one in inally, we offer timely reviews of which he will be tested on his record. With gender parity having been a two important books of this sea- major theme of the Trudeau govern- For John Delacourt, former director son. Former Maclean’s Editor-in- ment’s first term, Helaina Gaspard F of communications of the Liberal Re- Chief Bob Lewis looks at Trudeau: The and Emily Woolen of the Institute of search Bureau, this is a test whose out- Education of a Prime Minister and finds Fiscal Studies and Democracy look at come should not be taken for granted. that John Ivison’s biography “fair- Canada’s gender-based analysis in Be- For Conservative strategist Yaroslav ly bristles with anecdotes and exam- cause it’s 2019. Baran, the campaign offers an op- ples of a flawed prime ministry.” And, portunity to showcase the Scheer Foreign Affairs is a seldom a talk- Robin Sears is struck by the personal strength, in a manner of speaking, ing point in Canadian campaigns, courage of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh of the Tory leader. While Trudeau is though it’s never far from voters’ in his autobiography, Love & Courage. winning the charisma contest, Scheer minds. Our foreign affairs hand, Jer- In our November-December edition, could strike a role as the soccer dad. emy Kinsman, sizes up foreign policy we’ll have our election wrap-up and in this campaign. Former federal NDP president Brian analysis of where Canada goes from Topp writes that there is no point in Health care is back as a ballot ques- here. See you then, and remember the New Democrats simply running tion. “For the first time in a long to vote.

Policy 7 The Road to 170

It may not be as widely maligned as the Electoral College The magic number for a majority these days is 170 seats. The House is south of the border, but Canada’s system of first-past-the- populated according to the consti- post representation can be equally unrepresentative of the tutional principle of representation national vote. As Dalhousie University’s Lori Turnbull by population; so, when the parties are looking at the country’s regions points out, the key numbers to watch in the run-up to the and provinces to find their prospec- election are not the national polling spreads but the pro- tive path to a majority government, vincial breakdowns. size matters. Winning the most seats in Ontario is more politically lucra- tive than winning the most seats in Atlantic Canada. That said, every seat counts and a small region can be key Lori Turnbull one another. These polls can be fun to giving a party what it needs to to read, and are indispensable tools meet the threshold for a majority. n the lead-up to the 2019 gen- for those of us prone to entering of- eral election, public opinion polls fice election pools, but they must The regional breakdown of the House I remained inconclusive as to also be understood as generalizations of Commons looks like this: Ontario which party will form a government that can obscure important realities is the most populous “region” with and how. The Liberals and the Con- 121 seats; is second-largest regarding how the vote will break servatives were in a statistical tie in with 78 seats; elects down regionally and locally. Again, terms of national support at 32 vs. 33 42 members of Parliament, Alberta it’s the seats rather than the votes per cent, according to polling pub- 34, the Prairies 28, Atlantic Canada themselves that determine govern- lished by Abacus on August 19. As we 32, and each territory has one MP. ment formation, and regional num- know, however, national support does Historically, the Liberals have domi- bers paint a more accurate picture not determine the outcome of an elec- nated in Ontario and Atlantic Cana- than national ones. tion. Election results are defined by da, often picking up the majority of political parties’ shares of the seats in Ontario seats or even all of the seats the House of Commons; the popular Election results are in the Atlantic region. In 2015, it vote doesn’t elect anybody. Of course, defined by political took broadcasters virtually no time at there is a connection between vote parties’ shares of the seats all to announce that the Liberals had share and seat share, but the first-past- in the House of Commons; won all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada the-post electoral system has the effect (for those of us watching from that of carving up the national vote into the popular vote doesn’t side of the country, the whole thing 338 constituencies, each with its own elect anybody. was a bit anticlimactic—no matter election. Whichever candidate comes which party you were supporting.) first in each riding wins and parties are The previous elections had gone no- not compensated for any discrepancy where near as well for the Liberals, as between their share of seats and their the Conservatives and the NDP elect- portion of the national vote. The le- ed 14 and six MPs respectively and gitimacy of this system is a continu- For political parties vying for pow- the Liberals elected 12. al source of debate in Canada, and is er in a parliamentary system such as a topic that is sure to come up in the ours, a majority government is the he likelihood of the Liberals 2019 campaign. holy grail. Equipped with most of sweeping Atlantic Canada In the public opinion polls published the seats in the House and Canada’s T again is low, particularly since frequently during the pre-election pe- strong tradition of party discipline, a the Conservatives and the NDP both riod, national support numbers give majority government prime minister have strong roots in the area and will us a sense of where voters are lean- can govern almost unilaterally and reclaim some of the seats that had ing and whether parties are growing decisively, without too many obsta- been deemed “safe” for them in previ- or declining in popularity relative to cles to pursuing the party’s agenda. ous elections. Also, given the success

September/October 2019 8 that the Greens have had in provin- cial elections in Atlantic Canada, it is possible that their results could pene- trate the federal/provincial divide.

As for Ontario, the Liberals blew it in 2011, winning a previously unthink- able 11 seats. But this requires some explanation. All three times that Ste- phen Harper and the Conservatives formed government (2006, 2008, and 2011), it was with significant support in Ontario after having merged the federal right-wing parties, the Progres- sive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance, into one Conservative Par- ty. In the federal election in 2000, by comparison, the Liberals elected MPs in 100 of the province’s then 103 rid- ings; in 2004, the number dropped to 75 out of 106. Harper’s Conservatives took 40 Ontario seats to the Liberals’ The Green Chamber in the West Block, where majorities are now made, or not, at 170. House of 54 in 2006, and took the lead in 2008 Commons photo with 51 Ontario seats compared to the Liberal’s 38. In 2011, Harper’s only It’s possible that cent of the popular vote in B.C., a few majority government came with its many Ontario voters points ahead of the Liberals, with the strongest showing in Ontario—73 of NDP and the Greens trailing in the what was then 108 seats in the prov- will see a Liberal vote as an high teens. The results will depend on ince. In 2015, the Liberals took the effective way to hold Premier how the votes break down on a con- lead in the province again with 80 of in check; this stituency basis. 121 seats. It’s possible that many On- tario voters will see a Liberal vote as would help the Liberals Perhaps you have noticed that there an effective way to hold Premier Doug maintain their stronghold in are no seat projections here. That is in- Ford in check; this would help the Lib- the province, which will be tentional. There are pollsters and data erals maintain their stronghold in the essential to their forming a analysts who are better equipped to province, which will be essential to give you those numbers. I rely on their their forming a second government. second government. findings, again, for that office election Summer polling data favours a first- pool and to get a sense of where vot- place finish for the Liberals in Ontario. ers’ heads are. It is worth looking into the regional numbers to get a clearer Quebec has been key to the success sense of how things will shake out in of the NDP in recent years, with the al MPs elected in the region in 2015— four in Alberta, one in Saskatchewan October. The parties can take noth- party taking 59 of the province’s 75 ing for granted, not even voter turn- seats in 2011. But that was an histor- and seven in Manitoba—could be vul- out. There are fewer committed vot- ical exception that can be attribut- nerable, including in areas like Ed- ers with every election, which means ed to a number of factors, including monton and Calgary, from which the that parties are actively competing for the unprecedented popularity of the Prime Minister drew cabinet ministers a greater share of the votes and have late NDP leader and the and parliamentary secretaries. B.C. is relatively fewer loyalists who show collapse of both the Liberals and the often the most difficult region in the up for them every time. This makes Bloc Québécois in the province. The country for which to make political for frantic, compulsive campaigning. Liberals claimed 40 of Quebec’s 78 predictions. With 42 seats, it is treated Judging by the numbers over the sum- seats in 2015, the NDP were reduced as a rich area for growth potential for mer, it’s possible that no party will get to 16 and the Conservatives took 12. virtually all parties. In 2015, the Lib- to 170 seats. In which case, welcome erals elected 17 MPs, the NDP 14, the to a minority House. istorically, the Conservatives Conservatives 10 and the Greens 1. All have dominated in the prai- of them will be looking to make gains. Dr. Lori Turnbull is the Director of H rie provinces and are expect- Summer polling showed the Conser- the School of Public Administration at ed to do so in 2019. Some of the Liber- vatives in the lead at just over 30 per Dalhousie University.

Policy 9

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau at an election campaign rally in Toronto Centre, 2015. Alex Guibord Flickr photo

Sunny Ways Redux? Not so Fast

The 2015 Liberal campaign that propelled Justin Trudeau John Delacourt from third place to a decisive majority will go down in he conventional wisdom is political lore as a textbook, near-seamless race. But as that the October federal elec- the cliché goes, campaigning and governing are not the T tion will be a referendum less on what the Liberal government same thing, whether in poetry, prose or spoken word. The has achieved than on Trudeau him- months between the first 100 days and the last have been self. That will be a frustrating turn of events for Liberals who point to a eventful and, as former Liberal advisor John Delacourt strong report card despite challenges writes, not the stuff of sure things. no one could have predicted. Yet it has been, as former U.S. Defense Sec- retary Donald Rumsfeld would say, the “known unknown” of brand cor- rosion that has led to this state of affairs, less the performance of de-

September/October 2019 10 livering a strong mandate than the It could be argued that, given all that has occurred unforced errors in management that have provided Opposition Leader An- over the last four years, a Conservative government drew Scheer with a very real opportu- would not have fared any better or worse, certainly not in nity to defeat what seemed an invin- dealing with Trump. In fact, the story of the trade cible majority four years ago. negotiations, if it is ever fully told, could reveal how The Trudeau government came in expertly Trudeau’s team managed the unmanageable. with a bold agenda, outlined by a campaign platform that spoke of re- setting the course of governing on a number of fronts: Indigenous recon- ciliation, the environment and cli- mate change, “Canada’s place in the ed at steel and aluminum produc- purchase it while it was under fur- world.” Even how Canadians elected tion here in Canada. Strained rela- ther review. It was an outcome that their members of Parliament would tions with our biggest trading partner seemed to please no one, despite the be subject to review and study, with required the focus of Trudeau’s PMO stated intention of balancing the the promise of electoral reform. Fis- and his cabinet, as they sought to concerns of Indigenous communi- cal prudence and wise management counter any further threats to our in- ties and environmental groups with of the government’s finances would dustries, not least the auto and agri- the imperatives of economic de- be affirmed. And guiding it all, the cultural sectors. What was to follow velopment. Yet the final, arguably priorities of a struggling middle class at the provincial level was the for- more seismic shift for the Trudeau “and those hoping to join it” were mation of a resurgent Conservative government to contend with came to be the lodestar for the next four beachhead in Ontario, Saskatchewan, from within, with the SNC-Lavalin years. This was the broad constitu- Manitoba, and, final- affair creating a rift that led to the ency Trudeau won over during the ly, Alberta. eventual expulsion from caucus of 2015 campaign. It was an electorate two of Trudeau’s strongest minis- who, reportedly, from both external ters, Jody Wilson Raybould and Jane and internal polling, hadn’t felt any With close to Philpott. From the hairline cracks of measurable improvement in their fi- 300,000 children NAFTA to the emerging fault lines nances and quality of life, despite lifted out of poverty by the at the provincial level to the tecton- the economy’s slow, steady resur- ic shift in fortunes over the last few gence from the recession of 2008. A Canada Child Benefit and months, who could have predicted strong trio of initiatives would be put employment numbers for such a turn of events back in 2015? in place almost immediately: a mid- well-paying, full-time work At least that is the familiar line dle class tax cut, a Canada Child Ben- better than they have been of defence. efit and a revamped Canada Pension Plan to lay the foundations of long- in decades, those hoping to et all these events do not really term for the “min- join the middle class do seem to have been decisive. It ivan families,” those populating the have better prospects. Y could be argued that, given suburbs of Vancouver, Toronto and all that has occurred over the last Montreal, whom the Trudeau Liber- four years, a Conservative govern- als had relied on to kick-start their ment would not have fared any bet- campaign and bring them their re- ter or worse, certainly not in deal- sounding majority victory. ing with Trump. In fact, the story of the trade negotiations, if it is ever Just barely a year into power, the This new coalition put the govern- fully told, could reveal how expert- ground beneath the government be- ment’s ambitious plan to combat cli- ly Trudeau’s team managed the un- gan to shift precipitously, and it mate change and reduce greenhouse manageable. And with the dynam- played out in concentric circles— gas emissions—“the ”—in ic of the federal government versus from the international to the inter- its sights. Outlying British Colum- the provinces, at least Trudeau can governmental and finally at the cab- bia elected an NDP government that notch two Supreme Court victories inet level—for this government. The was no less congenial, particularly with regard to the implementation full implications of a Trump presi- on energy sector projects. With the of carbon pricing. Crucially, with dency came to the fore with the re- project, this comparative argument of imag- negotiations of the North American initially supported by Trudeau and ining the other party in power, the Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and suddenly put in jeopardy by B.C.’s Conservatives may have also fol- the implementation of tariffs target- new government, Ottawa opted to lowed international precedent and

Policy 11 implemented the deferred prosecu- followed by the Aga Khan vacation throughout the worst of it. Though tion agreement when faced with the and then the perceived unserious ap- Trudeau has taken the hit through prospect of an employer like SNC- proach to bilateral relations with the this steady decline in his approval Lavalin no longer being eligible for India trip, there has been more than numbers, this has really been about procurement contracts. The stron- enough kryptonite to go around. how Trudeau’s team has governed, gest defence is less conjectural; the Those minivan families could look not what they can say they’ve deliv- Liberals have “gotten the big things to each development and wonder ered for Canadians. The worst traits right” for growth and development. just how much this government re- of this government, much like the With close to 300,000 children lifted ally understood their lives and pri- best—its innovative and thought- out of poverty by the Canada Child orities. And as for the mitigating ful policy making—were forged in Benefit and employment numbers measures to address risks like these, the blast furnace of an election cam- for well-paying, full-time work bet- there is no effective empowerment paign, yet every campaign is unfor- ter than they have been in decades, of Trudeau’s front bench to com- tunately very different, and the al- those hoping to join the middle municate—or indeed personify—the chemy that created one majority class do have better prospects. All of government’s progressive mandate. victory can rarely guarantee even an these factors should be more than “Make the message your own” is the eked out minority victory the next consolation, they should be buoy- mantra of Ottawa media trainers for time around. ing the Liberals’ prospects for an- a reason. A telltale sign this wasn’t If the Trudeau government only other mandate. However, it is the going to be carried too far occurred lasts as long as one mandate, the approval numbers on Trudeau him- when, recovering from the nadir of question of how the brand and is- self, which have been in a steady de- Bill Morneau’s management of his sues have been managed will have cline, that truly weigh the heaviest small business tax cut controver- proven to be their undoing. It will on the minds of those contemplat- sy, Trudeau himself took questions have been less those “events, dear ing the campaign ahead. for the Finance Minister—standing boy” that took up so much oxygen right beside him. This was the known unknown back in question period, or in the negoti- in 2015. There was a cautionary tone ations in or First Minis- established, and at least a stated The next four years ters’ meetings. And even if the Liber- means to address the moment if and were about als win another mandate, a minority when the shine started to come off decentralizing the issues government should be viewed as a defeat, if not a reckoning, for the Trudeau. His team knew from poll- management and the ing that the middle class branding of decision-making that diminished the government had to be sacrosanct. messaging so that if the such a powerful reserve of political Any apparent deviation was, as one shine was off the PM, the capital. advisor told me, “like kryptonite;” team branding would John Delacourt, Vice President and Canadians would punish Trudeau already be in place as a Group Leader for Hill and Knowlton’s himself for signs of hypocrisy in this public affairs practice in Ottawa, is a regard. And they had on the face of it countervailing factor. former director of communications for a contingency plan; what would help the Liberal Research Bureau and the prevent too much slippage in the author of three books. polls, if such kryptonite were uncov- ered, was a cabinet and caucus fully empowered to communicate the gov- ernment’s mandate effectively, using The default position in crisis, de- the strategic thinking and 2.0 tactics veloped during the 2015 campaign, on social media that were so effective was that if you let Trudeau “sell” the for Trudeau himself in the campaign. merchandise in the store no one’s The next four years were about de- buying, his charisma would win out. centralizing the issues management More damaging than this approach and the messaging so that if the shine moreover, if there is anything about was off the PM, the team branding the SNC-Lavalin issue that does would already be in place as a coun- still resonate, it is the impression of tervailing factor. how little agency cabinet members had in the face of a phalanx of un- And this is where promise was nev- elected advisors to the prime minis- er really fulfilled. From the moving ter steering the course of action and expenses debacle with some of this keeping Trudeau himself looking government’s most senior advisors, like a remote but complicit figure

September/October 2019 12

Andrew Scheer flipping pancakes at the Cenovus Energy Stampede breakfast in Calgary in July 2019. Just an ordinary guy.Flickr photo

The Scheer Strength: Relatability

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer heads into this elec- Yaroslav Baran tion without the baggage of his predecessor, Stephen arties don’t win elections—gov- Harper. As longtime Conservative strategist Yaroslav ernments lose elections. The as- Baran points out, he’s not likely to win a charisma contest P sumption in Canada’s politi- cal culture is that change does not against Justin Trudeau but he can claim the mantle of come about from some grand new vi- Canada’s soccer dad at a time when context could make sion that captures the public imagin- it an exploitable advantage. ation, but from a collective sense— sometimes sooner and sometimes later—that it’s time to “throw the bums out.”

Yes, there are things Opposition par- ties can do to hasten a government’s demise: good “opposition research” or “oppo”, clever issue positioning, or skillful illumination of the incum- bent’s flaws of competence or ethics.

When that happens, the logical al- ternative gets a turn. Historically and

Policy 13 with few exceptions, it has been the There are things Opposition parties can do to hasten Liberals and Conservatives alternat- a government’s demise: good ‘opposition research’ ing occupancy of the roles of prime minister and leader of the Oppo- or ‘oppo’, clever issue positioning, or skillful illumination of sition. This pattern—and current the incumbent’s flaws of competence or ethics. polls—suggest the prime minister- ship is Andrew Scheer’s for the tak- ing, sooner or later. The chief threat for Opposition leaders, whoever they may be, is that their own party mem- advantage. The ongoing saga of the right path. His embrace of Big Milk bers grow impatient with their leader Trans Mountain pipeline, if played is a good start, inoculating against more quickly than the public grows right by all Opposition parties, should a neo-conservative libertarian straw weary with the incumbent. Mean- have a centrifugal effect on the elector- man as a threat to supply manage- while, they don’t have to do much ate. For pipeline opponents, the script ment. Other issues will be more chal- other than remain inoffensive, wait- is that the Liberals are false environ- lenging: the asylum seeker question ing in the wings, ready to take over mentalists—they talk a good game, is a balance beam, with political per- when it’s their turn. but then go and cut deals to build il on each side. Many Quebecers are So what does Andrew Scheer need pipelines. For pipeline supporters, the rightly displeased with the ongoing to do? What is the key to capitaliz- script is just as simple: they promised a exploitation of a loophole that has ing on current polls, which suggest pipeline, and there’s no pipeline. upended our asylum system. Com- the public is almost as tired of Justin passion coupled with orderly queues Trudeau after four years as it was of For pipeline and due process is a legitimate posi- after nine? A num- tion. In fact, it is politically unassail- ber of regional dynamics in vote-rich opponents, the able. But if tempered with charged areas present opportunities, but also script is that the Liberals language or anything that smacks of some delicate challenges, for Scheer. are false environmentalists— distrusting foreigners, the Conserva- Atlantic Canada, British Columbia, they talk a good game, but tives risk losing three votes in Ontario Quebec, and Ontario all have many or B.C. for each voter they appease in seats up for grabs if we believe the then go and cut deals to Quebec. Scheer did an excellent job latest polling. build pipelines. For pipeline in articulating his Immigration poli- supporters, the script is cy through his five-part spring speech In Newfoundland, the government’s just as simple: they promised series. All the balances were struck. unfriendliness to oil and gas—the He needs to keep this balance—not sector that turned the province’s a pipeline, and there’s only he, but all his candidates. economy around—should be a Lib- no pipeline. eral liability. A gentle, friendly, non- Current poling suggests the Conserva- confrontational nudge should be all tives have up to 20 seats open to them that’s required to tilt the vote blue. in Quebec. There is no reason they In the Maritimes and in Labrador, cannot and should not do even bet- the biggest challenge for Scheer is to ter. Scheer cannot turn himself into a It doesn’t have to be a brash, Alber- demonstrate that he understands the Quebecer; and he is running against ta-first message; it just takes an un- East—that he isn’t a continuation of one. But the key to winning Quebec apologetic—yet respectful—message the Reform Party genes that evalu- is remaining true to himself and not that an Andrew Scheer government ate Canada through a Prairie-centric overthinking his strategy. In almost believes in diversity when it comes lens. For an Ottawa native represent- all regions outside downtown Mon- to our energy sector. Yes, we will in- ing a Saskatchewan riding, that will treal, Quebecers tend to be small-c vest in renewables R&D. And, yes— mean strong candidates, household conservatives in their values and out- we will also get Canada’s fossil name candidates, frequent visits, and look. Scheer embodies these values in to market. Because nation-building a demonstrated understanding of the a moderate and reasonable way. As shouldn’t be about winners and los- vernacular of regional issues: cod, they get to know him, a great many ers—it’s about mutual accommoda- crab, quota, shipbuilding, tourism, Quebeckers will see their own reflec- tion, forward thinking, wise invest- energy, and a grasp of the principle tion in him. That means exposure. ments, and respect. of reciprocation: you have my back, Lots of it. And just being himself. I’ll have yours. uebec is an equally chal- Ontario offers a similar challenge British Columbia has often been un- lenging arena, with more and opportunity. Again, Scheer needs predictable electorally, but its volatil- Q parties and greater politi- only to be himself—the normal, “guy ity can be harnessed to a challenger’s cal complexity, but Scheer is on the next door” soccer dad. The biggest

September/October 2019 14 liability in Ontario is Premier Doug Scheer should be held to a higher that risk discrediting the party with Ford. The premier has demonstrated bar? Maybe, maybe not. It doesn’t other voters. that Ontario—even inner-Toronto— matter. A failure to recognize reality Then there is climate change. Carbon is accessible to the Tory brand, yet could be politically deadly. his polling is currently abysmal. The pricing will be a dominant election good news in this for Scheer is that theme, with both the Liberals and You go be the sexy Conservatives using it as a wedge. The the two men couldn’t be more differ- playboy, jet-setting ent. Ford is known for his brash style, Liberal script is already on display: an impulsive decision-making, and with celebrities. That’s fine. equation of their carbon tax with car- oversimplification of public policy. I’ll be the barbecue dad next ing about climate change. And it’s Scheer, in contrast, is more reserved, door, cargo jeans and clever positioning. The Conservatives’ response must be equally clever. They thoughtful, and about as non-bom- hamburger flipper to boot. bastic as they come, criticized often know that Canadians hate taxes— from within for being “too boring”. And let’s have a discussion hence the anti-carbon tax message. Bring it. That is precisely what Ontar- for 36 days about who gets The Conservatives must also, however, ian voters are in the mood for. the middle class—and those convince Canadians they care about working hard to join it. climate change and are committed to This brings us to the principal threat fighting it. The winning message is an Scheer faces: weathering an aggressive evolution of the one the Conserva- smear campaign designed to demon- tives have already started: “There are ize him while his name recognition two ways to address climate change. is still relatively low with the public. The Liberals have chosen a carbon tax The Conservative machine will also The themes are entirely predictable: that penalizes consumers—people like have to develop a sharper instinct xenophobia, Islamophobia, abortion, Sally who buys groceries and drives for tone in sensitive circumstanc- and climate change. The Liberal cam- her kids to soccer and piano. That’s es. Scheer was criticized for having paign will throw tremendous energy a legitimate approach, and that’s the and advertising behind this effort. In failed to mention Islamophobia fol- Liberals’ choice. We believe in the ap- fact, it has already started. lowing the Christchurch mass mur- proach taken by people like Barack der in New Zealand. His tweet was, Obama and Stephen Harper—regulat- An unfortunate fact for Scheer is that in fact, almost identical to Gover- ing emission caps on the actual emit- he bears the legacy of damage that nor General Julie Payette’s, which ters. We believe in going after the ac- others before him did to the Conserva- also fell short of using the term. tual polluters.” tive brand. This includes miscues and She, however, does not have to bear inept policy proposals from the 2015 the legacy of Kellie Leitch, the 2015 Scheer was elected speaker of the Conservative campaign, such as the Tory campaign, and other contribu- House of Commons by his peers. He barbaric cultural practices snitch line tors to the Conservative Party’s rep- was trusted by members of all politi- that widely flopped as a veiled Islam- utation on tolerance. Andrew Scheer cal parties to preside over parliamen- ophobic dog whistle. It also includes does. And his team needs to under- tary proceedings with fairness and re- the legacy of the recent Tory leader- stand this. spect. These character traits are key to ship race, which resurfaced (albeit by his personality, as attested by those Scheer’s opponents) issues such as Conservative parties have rightly rec- who have known him a long time. He abortion and a Canadian values test. ognized a need to offer hope to com- will not win a charisma war with Jus- The sooner Scheer recognizes that this munities, neighbourhoods and demo- baggage is real, that he did not inherit graphics left behind by a relocation of tin Trudeau. He also doesn’t have to. the party throne with a clean slate, the manufacturing or decline in resource His folksy and shy relatability could better for his 2019 prospects. development. Think Hamilton, allow him to judo Trudeau’s charisma Welland, Windsor, New Glasgow.... and international star power against him: You go be the sexy playboy, jet- eal politics now demands that And often, such communities feel setting with celebrities. That’s fine. I’ll he overcorrect for these trans- talked down to by well-meaning but be the barbecue dad next door, cargo gressions of others. In a recent disconnected Liberal elites. This is a R jeans and hamburger flipper to boot. speech, he signaled that he will have political opportunity, but the chal- no tolerance for anyone running lenge is to offer blueprints for eco- And let’s have a discussion for 36 days under his banner exhibiting intol- nomic and social revival, but to do so about who gets the middle class—and

erant views. He said he would show “credibly”, and without oversimplifi- those working hard to join it. them the door. He will have to. In cation, anti-intellectualism or tonal Contributing Writer Yaroslav Baran, fact, he may have to expel several anti-elitism, and without resorting to a partner at Earnscliffe Strategy Group candidates over future eruptions to disingenuous promises, protection- in Ottawa, is a Conservative advisor demonstrate he is serious. Is it fair ism or environmental regressiveness and strategist.

Policy 15

The NDP’s Ballot Question

In its post-Layton, post-Mulcair incarnation, the federal But framing the election as a crusade to rid Canada of Justin Trudeau would NDP has been feeling its way through something of an likely not work with New Democrat identity crisis. This has not been helped by the fact that voters, precisely because they under- many of its traditional electoral strengths have been ab- stand that the short road to doing this is to elect a Conservative gov- sorbed by rival parties. Can Jagmeet Singh break the cycle ernment. In this era of Trump, Ford by making the 2019 election about inequality? and Kenney (political characters that New Democrats view as interchange- able), that is the last thing NDP vot- ers want to see. So making the elec- Brian Topp get each and every year, come what tion explicitly about getting rid of may. That would not be Prime Minis- Trudeau, whatever it takes, would oing into the fall 2019 federal ter Singh’s view. likely suppress the NDP vote and flip election campaign, it isn’t cross-pressured NDP/Liberal voters to Second, the federal NDP likely can’t too hard to come up with a vote Liberal, as they did in 2015. G successfully frame the election as be- list of things Jagmeet Singh’s federal ing about who can best get rid of Jus- Third, the federal NDP also probably New Democrats can’t do. tin Trudeau. can’t successfully frame the election First, the federal New Democrats can’t as being about who can stop Andrew run to the right of the Liberals on fis- Sheer and the Conservatives. The cal and economic policy. The federal Framing the election short road to stopping the populist party’s unwise decision to try this dur- as a crusade to rid rightwing haters is to re-elect the Lib- ing the 2015 campaign federal made Canada of Justin Trudeau erals. So, if the most important issue the New Democrats look like a party facing Canada is to protect women, of continuity with Stephen Harper’s would likely not work with new Canadians, gay people and First austerity policies—quite an accom- New Democrat voters, Nations from Andrew Scheer and his plishment for the NDP, but possibly precisely because they dream team of strategists from Ezra not one they were looking for. understand that the short Levant’s hate site, Mr. Trudeau goes In Canada and around the democratic into the campaign in a better posi- road to doing this is to elect tion to do so. world, voters have had enough of Rea- a Conservative government. gan-Thatcher austerity policies, and Fourth, the federal NDP probably the consequent rise of a grotesque, un- can’t turn the 2019 election into a stable and unsustainable inequality. referendum about climate change. So nobody runs on those policies any- This is an awkward topic for this more. Not even Conservatives, who writer to talk to you about, gen- instead now cheerfully propose end- tle reader, because Jagmeet Singh’s less deficits in order to cut taxes for If Canadians really want to get rid of NDP has decided to explicitly repu- rich people. It is also true that math- Justin Trudeau as their sole and top diate the policies of the Notley Al- ematics haven’t been abolished. There priority, the short road to doing so is berta NDP government, which I had are limits to all things, including pub- to vote Conservative. There is a cer- a hand in developing. lic borrowing. But that was not the fo- tain familiarity to federal politics in cus of federal politics in 2015 and it 2019. Trudeaumania has once again uring her term, Premier Ra- probably won’t be in 2019. proved to be a one-shot phenom- chel Notley offered Canada Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has therefore enon, as it was between 1968 and D a grand bargain whereby Al- repudiated Thomas Mulcair’s core be- 1972. And so a first-term Trudeau berta would: cap the expansion of lief in politics—the former leader’s government once again faces the emissions from the oil sands; im- view that any and all party principles challenge of giving Canadians a rea- plement a universal ; and election commitments are con- son to vote for them other than ce- and eliminate Alberta’s heavy de- tingent on balancing the federal bud- lebrity excitement over the leader. pendence on coal-fired electricity as

September/October 2019 16 quickly as possible in favour of re- this election is, why do Liberals and newables—all steps that would slow Conservatives keep making life easier and then begin to reduce Alberta’s for the rich—and harder for the rest carbon emissions, which were grow- of us?” This campaign frame gets us ing uncontrollably. And which, with- back to the painful lesson of 2015. out these policies, would have (and Voters—certainly any voters willing may again) made it absolutely impos- to consider voting NDP under Jag- sible for Canada to meet its interna- meet Singh—are looking for an al- tional carbon emission targets. ternative to austerity policies that fa- In return, Notley asked the rest of Can- vour the few and betray the many. ada to allow Alberta better access to an Most Canadian families can see them- ocean port, so that Alberta could sell selves in that question. Most Cana- its more limited energy production dian families live the experience of into the world market for its full price. needing two or three incomes to make The Trudeau government took Notley ends meet. Of creeping precarious em- up on this bargain, made it the core of ployment, everywhere. And of every- a federal climate leadership plan cen- one with a claim on their income— tred on a federal carbon price, and in- the mortgage bank or the landlord, vested in the Trans Mountain pipe- the grocery store, the phone company line to meet its terms. However, for and the gas company—getting regu- reasons of politics and principle that lar raises at their expense. While most have an undeniable integrity to many Jagmeet Singh, positioning the NDP on its own people haven’t had a real raise them- of its urban voters in British Colum- ballot question for winning the campaign. Wayne Polk Flickr photo selves in a generation. While many bia, the British Columbia NDP of Pre- have seen their jobs shipped overseas, mier John Horgan has mounted a de- with minimum wage work in retail termined and high-decibel campaign Notley’s grand bargain and Horgan’s beckoning as an alternative… maybe. against all of this, and in favour of the B.C.-first LNG plan, the federal NDP status quo. And after a period of un- is going into the 2019 campaign with Trump spoke to working American happy prevarication, the federal NDP an uncompromising green agenda families about these themes, and per- has decided to follow this lead. that repeats the views of the world’s suaded them he cared more about most committed and alarmed climate Mulcair was unpopular with Alber- them than Hillary Clinton and the change campaigners. ta New Democrats, who never for- Democrats did. Other populists on gave him for musing that Canada has Having done this, the Singh New the right are now following suit—and “Dutch disease” because of the mone- Democrats almost certainly can’t offering their solutions, which are tary and fiscal consequences of being make it the core of their appeal. Be- about doubling down on the fiscal an all-your-eggs-in-one-basket ma- cause if they convince their own vot- and economic policies that created all jor energy exporter. This interesting ers that climate change is the single of this, while bashing your neighbour piece of punditry did not go over well most important thing that must be because she is from Syria. addressed now, quite a few of them in Alberta. But to his very great credit, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP are hoping to might well vote for the Green Par- Mulcair attempted to walk a fine and make the election about these issues, ty. If the next election is about a sin- balanced line between these contend- too. The trick is going to be to get gle issue, there is a single-issue party ing western regions and NDP govern- voters to ask themselves that ques- available on this issue. ments, mindful of the fundamental tion, without being distracted by the duty of federal leaders and parties to other questions discussed above. If o, if the Singh NDP’s campaign find themes that bring Canadians in Jagmeet Singh succeeds in doing this, can’t be about flanking the Lib- different regions together instead of he’ll prove—not for the first time in dividing them. erals on the right on fiscal and S recent federal political history—that economic issues; probably can’t be Here again, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP the leader of the third party has been about getting rid of Trudeau; can’t has repudiated their former feder- underestimated. be about stopping the populist right- al leader—and the Notley NDP. In- wing haters; and can’t only or prin- Brian Topp is a partner at KTG Public deed, in some of their statements cipally be about flanking the Liberals Affairs, a fellow at the Public Policy about fracked natural gas and the on the left on climate change poli- Forum, a director on the board of the infrastructure required to develop cy—what can it be about? Broadbent Institute, and is teaching a B.C.’s LNG industry, the Singh feder- course at the Max Bell School of Public al NDP is throwing the Horgan B.C. Going into the campaign, Jagmeet Policy at McGill University. He served NDP government into the repudia- Singh and his team were getting as chief of staff to Alberta Premier tion bin for good measure. In lieu of ready to ask this: “The question in .

Policy 17

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May. Her showing up for the job has made the Greens competitive in Campaign 2919. Green Party of Canada photo

Mayday! M’aidez!

In mid-August, The Hill Times ran a cartoon by Michael Ziya Tong de Adder of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May with the alf the job is showing thought bubble ‘I must be doing something right’…her “ up,” you’ve likely heard it back covered with Post-It notes saying ‘Kick me’. The H said. And yet, in the po- litical arena, it’s stunning when image pricelessly captured May’s pre-election moment this most basic of requirements is as a longtime advocate mainstreamed by events, whose shrugged off. It’s still harder to swal- principle on one of the most urgent issues of our time has low when the issue at hand is a na- tional emergency. suddenly put her in the political crosshairs. An emergency in any other context would signal, at minimum, the follow- ing: 1) An alarm, or repeated alarms to give notice to the public 2) An imme- diate mandate to respective agencies to initiate plans and procedures for an urgent response, and 3) Deployment and action of expert teams.

And yet nothing in present-day Can- ada even hints at the fact that we are

September/October 2019 18 in the midst of an emergency. In- May is also fearless when it counts. She is a known stead, on June 17th, 2019—the day cage-rattler in the House of Commons, with a the House of Commons passed a motion declaring a national climate record of speaking out in Parliament on unpopular emergency—Justin Trudeau, Jag- topics—which, in turn, has boosted her public image. meet Singh and Andrew Scheer were all at the Raptors parade in Toronto, cheering and smiling for the camer- as rather than tackling the less glitzy job of public policy. More egregious though, is that the party leaders of which, in turn, has boosted her pub- ice—drained off Greenland’s ice sheet the Liberals, NDP and Conservatives lic image. in a single day. We had not expect- did not even vote. Only one federal ed to see melt levels like these until But as all policy wonks know, effective leader was present at the debates that 2070. Calling the situation serious is leadership requires more than charis- day to discuss the single, most press- an understatement. ing issue of our time. That leader was ma. Our priority now as a country is Elizabeth May. to find a leader with a solid plan. At So how serious are the federal par- this critical juncture, we need some- ties’ plans? To start, Prime Minister This is not the only time May has one who can make bold reparations Trudeau has been invited to attend shown up solo. Just one month lat- for our nation’s historic injustices, the UN Climate Summit on Septem- er at the 40th annual general assem- while at the same time crafting a vi- ber 23, 2019 to support the New Deal bly of the Assembly of First Nations, sionary and inclusive plan that will for Nature and People. All eyes should again, May was the only federal lead- ensure a secure and sustainable future be on Trudeau because this a criti- er present. Although high priority is for all Canadians. cal opportunity for Canada to step placed on reconciliation and Indige- up. The ticket to entry, according nous relations in governing rhetoric, As I write these to UN Chief Antonio Guterres, is a here, before an audience of a thou- concrete plan to reach carbon neu- sand people, those hollow words words, an trality by 2050. Guterres stipulates collapsed. Chiefs, insulted by the unprecedented and massive that world leaders should come pre- fact that the politicians did not have meltdown—12.5 billion tons pared with real strategies, and not the time in their schedules to show of ice—drained off just “beautiful speeches.” So the up demanded, “Where is your lead- question is: will Trudeau show up? er?” Their disappointment and an- Greenland’s ice sheet in a If he does, it will mean outlining a ger of course, was justified. After all, single day. We had not far bolder plan than what the Liber- what is a nation-to-nation relation- expected to see melt levels als have previously set forth. Given ship based on “rights, respect, coop- like these until 2070. Calling the current rate of emissions decline eration and partnership” when the the situation serious is an under the Pan-Canadian Framework, leaders of the nation called Canada it’s been calculated that it would were not even there? understatement. take one thousand years to reach Canada’s 2050 target. You read that There is a good reason we are seeing correctly: one thousand years. When Elizabeth May shine now. Much of it put into perspective it becomes clear has to do with her unrelenting work that incrementalism of this kind is ethic, which began when the “Green not climate leadership. It’s a death wave” was just a ripple. The activist, sentence. author, mother and former lawyer nd, we do not have much time. has also flourished beyond Ottawa’s A As the Liberals like to point out how- According to the United Nations lat- circles by coming across as the “non- ever, at least they “have a plan with est IPCC report, which is based on politician” politician. As the Green targets.” And here, they should be Party Leader for the past 13 years, the most reputable science avail- commended for the hard work of she’s brandished a simple method of able, we have 11 years left to avert putting a price on carbon. In terms cutting through political BS: support catastrophic damage to our already of pollution, An- science, be honest and have integrity. fragile ecosystems, and a mere 17 drew Scheer’s Real Plan to Protect Our Importantly though, May is also fear- months for global leaders to agree Environment would haul the coun- less when it counts. She is a known upon achievable targets leading up try backward. The plan itself has no cage-rattler in the House of Com- to COP 26 in 2020. As I write these emissions targets at all (To consid- mons, with a record of speaking out words, an unprecedented and mas- er how absurd that is, try to imag- in Parliament on unpopular topics— sive meltdown—12.5 billion tons of ine a CEO putting forward a business

Policy 19 plan with zero targets.) In practice, refining for the last thirty-six years. climate change, they have long been the Conservative plan would not the most serious party of all. Indeed, , the foundation- only increase emissions and the mar- Vision Green gin by which we miss Canada’s Par- al policy document behind the plan, Now, as the physical heat rises, May’s is targets, it would also be expen- is a 20-step climate action plan that popularity is rising as well. Natural- sive, costing the average tax payer prioritizes ecosystem restoration, ly, the bigger spotlight will lead to between $187-$295 more per house- new technologies and upgrades, in- more scrutiny. The proof of her lead- hold if the federal carbon tax house- frastructure adaptation (which is ership in the months ahead will be in hold rebate and the home retrofit critical, as any emergency planner is how well she responds to critics on tax credits were repealed. aware), and an immediate transition the feasibility of her plans, and how to green jobs. she plans to pay for them. There is no If the Conservatives have omitted doubt that she has positively influ- emissions targets, it should be noted As the physical heat enced the political climate, the ques- that Jagmeet Singh’s New Deal for Cli- tion is: how will the political climate mate Action and Good Jobs makes rath- rises, May’s influence her? er a curious omission as well. While popularity is rising as well. the NDP’s foundation for economic Naturally, the bigger Elizabeth May has a record of demon- and social justice is strong (and criti- strating the kind of courage and lead- cal for any climate plan to succeed), spotlight will lead to more ership that is needed right now: pro- nowhere in their blueprint is there scrutiny. The proof of her posing what science says is critical, any mention of where the party leadership in the months not what politics says is polling well. stands on expanding oil and gas in- ahead will be in how well If she gains enough support within frastructure. And yet, even the Inter- she responds to critics on parliament to become a presence that national Energy Agency (IEA)—an or- cannot be ignored, I believe all Ca- ganization known for its institutional the feasibility of her plans, nadians will benefit, because she will conservatism—revealed after con- and how she plans to pay raise the bar on any national climate ducting a thorough audit of “all cur- for them. agenda that is put forward. rent and under-construction energy infrastructure around the world” that Ultimately, the mark of a great lead- 95 percent of all permitted emissions er is one who shows up, and steps up under the targets have already with bold action. As Canadians, we been accounted for. That is, there is do not deserve a watered-down cli- no room in the carbon budget for ex- mate plan. As Canadians, we deserve The Green Plan was co-authored by panding fossil infrastructure. an emergency plan that will save us. Elizabeth May in 2006. Along with In conserving my own energy, I shall The Leap Manifesto, Vision Green Ziya Tong is an award-winning reserve only one sentence for Max- served as a blueprint for the now science broadcaster and author. She ime Bernier’s People’s Party platform, highly-publicized in currently serves as the Vice-Chair of which claims that we should not the United States. WWF Canada. be duped by “climate alarmist non- Policy-wise, the Greens have also sense,” and it is this: federal party benefitted from the expertise of be- leaders who do not take the science longing to a network of think tanks, of climate change seriously should not be taken seriously at all. institutes, NGOs, and 80 interna- tional member green parties called The Global Greens, a consortium hich brings me to the one that has grown in strength with the plan that comes equipped rising alarm triggered by the climate with robust targets, has a W emergency. This united front was a clear understanding of the science, big push behind the “Green Wave” and timeline that reflects the fact that swept through the European that we are in a climate emergency, Parliament in the spring of 2019, and that is the Green Party of Cana- with 75 Green members elected da’s Mission: Possible. as MEPs, and in the UK, where the The plan’s thoroughness is a testa- Green Party won more seats than in- ment to the fact that it was not cob- cumbent Conservatives. So in Cana- bled together in a single election da, it is ironic that the Greens were cycle—it is based on solutions that not taken seriously until recently, Greens have been thinking about and because when it comes to the facts of

September/October 2019 20

Protecting Elections in a New Threat Environment

The myriad innovations introduced by the fourth indus- That is why, on January 30, 2019, the Minister of Public Safety and Emer- trial revolution have, in the hands of malicious actors, gency Preparedness, the Minister of been repurposed as weapons against democracy. Minister National Defence, and I announced of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould outlines the gov- Canada’s Plan to Safeguard the 2019 General Election. This plan is built ernment of Canada’s comprehensive, pre-emptive response around four main pillars: expecting to those threats ahead of the federal 2019 election. social media platforms to act, com- batting foreign interference, improv- ing organizational readiness, and en- hancing citizen preparedness. Karina Gould sues—all with the aim of interfering In elections around the world, we with the ability of citizens to choose have seen social media used to spread hen Canadians step into who will govern them. disinformation, distort the debate, voting booths this Octo- As Canadians, we can expect to be and create confusion, all of which can ber, they will be fulfilling a W targeted with many of the same tac- disengage people from the democrat- foundational principle of our democ- ic process. That is why we expect so- racy: the belief that citizens choose tics we have seen deployed in other cial media platforms to take concrete who will govern them. The trajectory democracies around the world. This actions to help safeguard the integ- of our democratic history has been to was confirmed by the Communica- rity of the next federal election. Our give life to this principle whether it be tions Security Establishment (CSE) government developed the Canada through establishing ourselves as an in its Cyber Threats to Canada’s Dem- Declaration on Electoral Integrity, independent nation responsible for ocratic Process report, which was the which lays out how we can promote our own affairs, or through expand- first publicly shared threat assess- authenticity, integrity, and transpar- ing suffrage to a greater and greater ment of its kind in Canada and the ency online. We welcome compa- proportion of our citizens. While Ca- world. In the update CSE issued earli- nies like Facebook, Twitter, Google nadians can rightly be proud of the er this year, they concluded that it is progress that has been achieved, we “very likely” Canadian voters will en- and Microsoft supporting the Decla- must be careful not to allow compla- counter foreign cyber interference in ration, and committing to increasing their efforts to protect Canada’s elec- cency to set in. the months before the election. This toral process from threats. Since Canada’s last federal election, should not be a surprise to anyone. we have witnessed malicious foreign We are a member of the G7, NATO, Our government also became the first powers attempt to disrupt the elec- and the Five Eyes. We are a powerful in the world to regulate advertising toral narratives of the United States, voice for democratic values and hu- on social media. Canada’s electoral United Kingdom, , Ukraine man rights globally and have been law now requires online platforms to and the European Union, with vary- active in supporting the rules-based maintain a registry of published par- ing degrees of success. It has become international order—all of which tisan ads run by eligible parties, reg- clear that malign foreign powers see contributes to making us a target. istered associations, nomination con- elections as a way to sow discord and tenders and candidates, as well as by division in democratic societies and s a government, we have a du- third party groups. This registry must to advance their own objectives. We ty to protect the rights of Can- have a copy of the ad, and the name have seen malign actors employ a A adians to participate fully in of the individual who authorized it. wide and evolving range of tactics, our democracy: to vote, to express This will enable Canadians to see who including by spreading disinforma- themselves, to assemble. As Minister is advertising to them, and to think tion, suppressing the vote, stealing of Democratic Institutions, protect- critically about what they are see- private information, and encour- ing these precious rights is my pri- ing. Canada is the first country in the aging conflict over controversial is- mary focus. world to legally require such a registry.

Policy 21 choices during the election period, and ultimately, that is the goal. The evidence is clear: the best defense against foreign threats to our democ- racy is an informed and engaged citi- zenry. That is why we have also tak- en steps to give Canadians the tools they need to be critical information consumers and recognize the behav- iour of malicious actors. Through the newly created Digital Citizen Initia- tive, our government has commit- ted $7 million to help existing civil society organizations provide digital and civic literacy programming in the lead-up to this fall’s election. The threat to our democracy will not go away after the election. In April 2019, The Elections Modernization Act, tifying opportunities for coordinated we launched the Digital Democracy which passed in December 2018, en- responses when attacks do occur. Project with an investment of $19.4 sures that all Canadians are able to million over 4 years. This project will vote. Furthermore, it made impor- support research and policy develop- tant changes to our political financ- While we have made ment on combatting disinformation ing laws to ensure Canadian voices significant in the Canadian context and lead an are the ones we hear during and in preparations, the possibility international initiative on respond- the lead-up to our election. of foreign cyber interference ing to this problem. We have also tasked our national se- remains. In the event of that Between now and October, there will undoubtedly be a robust—and at times curity organizations to combat at- happening, we want to be tempts to interfere in our electoral rambunctious—debate over what the process. We established the Cana- sure that Canadians know future of our country should look like. dian Centre for Cyber Security that where to get information, This is not only expected but welcome serves as the focal point for Canada’s and that they can trust the in a vibrant democracy. There will be serious differences in outlook, and Ca- cybersecurity expertise. The Centre impartiality of the message. also houses the Security and Intelli- nadians will need to choose which gence Threats to Elections Task Force vision most closely aligns with their (SITE) which brings together the ex- own. In making that choice, they will pertise of CSE, the Canadian Security fulfill that essential promise of our Intelligence Service, the Royal Cana- While we have made significant prep- democracy that the governed get to dian Mounted Police, and Global Af- arations, the possibility of foreign cy- choose the governing. However, Ca- fairs Canada. Together, the SITE Task ber interference remains. In the event nadians will do so in an information ecosystem that has undergone signifi- Force is working to combat under- of that happening, we want to be cant change, even since the last gener- ground activity from interfering with sure that Canadians know where to al election. It is now more important our electoral process in Canada. get information, and that they can trust the impartiality of the message. than ever to inform ourselves about t is critical that democracies ar- That is why we established the Criti- the challenges facing our country, and ound the world work together cal Election Incident Public Protocol to think critically about the informa- I to combat this common threat. (the Protocol) to do just that—keep tion that we see—especially online. To help facilitate information shar- Canadians informed. The Protocol An informed and engaged citizenry is ing, our government took the lead in would only be triggered in exception- the best defense against the malicious establishing the G7 Rapid Response al circumstances in cases where Ca- foreign actors that would seek to in- Mechanism (RRM) at the G7 Summit nadians’ ability to have a free and fair terfere in our democracy. Our govern- in Charlevoix. The RRM, which is per- election is undermined. In these cas- ment will continue to work hard to manently housed in Canada, is work- es, a panel made up of five senior, im- empower Canadians and protect our ing to identify, prevent and respond to partial public servants would inform democratic institutions. threats to G7 members by analyzing Canadians about what happened Karina Gould is Minister of Democratic threat patterns and trends; sharing in- through a public statement. This will Institutions and Member of Parliament formation between partners; and iden- enable Canadians to make informed for Burlington

September/October 2019 22

Justin Trudeau arrives on Parliament Hill across from his office on Canada Day, 2019. Patrick Gossage wonders whether Trump-style populism can occur in Canada. Adam Scotti Photo Could it Happen Here?

Despite occasional flare-ups of something possibly re- Patrick Gossage sembling a Canadian iteration of Trumpism, the divi- he last months of pre-election sive, bellicose brand of overt racism and xenophobia silliness have seen pundits politicized by the populist American president has not T and pollsters falling all over each other to try and show us that yet jumped the border. Veteran Liberal strategist Patrick Canada is not immune to the anti- Gossage weighs the chances that populism will play into immigrant populism which has be- come so ugly south of the border, the 2019 campaign. most recently with Donald Trump’s racist rants against four congress- women of colour, telling them to “go back” where they came from.

This apparent jeopardy was accentu- ated when the federal government added two right-wing Canadian ex- tremist groups, Blood and Honour and Combat 18, to its list of banned terrorist organizations. Add to this the

Policy 23 Quebec government’s passage of Bill Are we immune to populist trends gripping the 21 banning public service employees from wearing religious symbols—in- Western world or not? And how will back room cluding the Hijab, with its anti-Islam- strategists planning election messaging use media stoked ic discriminatory overtones. anxieties that we are on a slippery slope? Are we immune to populist trends gripping the Western world or not? And how will backroom strategists planning election messaging use media-stoked anxieties that we are ics poll last November gave strate- tends to shore up wage rates.” In ad- on a slippery slope? gists something to chew on. Just 22 dition, Leonhardt makes the point Frank Graves of Ekos Research fired per cent of Liberals and 24 per cent that the period of strongest income off the most recent evidence of grow- of New Democrats thought Canada gains for middle class and poor fam- ing Canadian populism in late July. takes in too many immigrants. But ilies in the U.S. followed and over- Graves argues that economic stag- 52 per cent of Conservatives and 47 lapped with a period of falling nation, the hyper concentration of per cent of PPC supporters thought immigration. wealth, and a brewing cultural back- so. And 73 per cent of PPC voters and 70 per cent of Conservatives think lash mean Canada’s political climate very campaign needs to show too many immigrants are failing to is ripe for populist forces to gain trac- its leader and policies supe- adopt “Canadian values,” compared tion here. He posits the growth in rior in every way to its oppo- to 38 per cent of Liberals and 40 per E the Conservatives’ attraction to the nents. Trudeau consistently insists cent of New Democrats. less educated as a potential reason that he opposes the tactics of fear and for them to become more populist. Certainly, Liberals are accustomed to division, and he knows he will bene- There is also an exploitable widening the frequent rants of Conservative fit from the widespread dislike of the gap between the attitudes that left- immigration critic Michelle Rempel, only populist government in Canada, and right-leaning voters share to- who while careful not to sound anti- that of Doug Ford in Ontario. Ford’s wards issues such as immigration and immigrant, forcefully disputes Liber- refrain “for the people” against elites climate change. als’ handling of the influx of “illegal” is pure populism. Liberal canvassers in But his position has prompted other immigrants walking into Canada at Ontario are hearing lots of anti-Ford pollsters to disagree. Doug Anderson the Quebec border. She likes to cite sentiment at the door. of Earnscliffe Strategy Group says an Angus Reid poll from August 2018 Recent patronage scandals brought his research has also shown condi- showing 49 per cent of respondents on by Ford’s former chief of staff, tions are there for “people to rally felt there should be fewer immigrants Dean French, and a series of damag- behind a populist candidate,” but allowed into Canada. That figure was ing cuts to education and other ser- none of the federal party leaders em- 36 per cent in 2014. vices, have seriously tanked Ford’s body that mold. “There has to be a This tendency for Conservatives to approval to the point that it is now candidate who is seen as a champi- question asylum seekers and a very generally agreed that Scheer’s popu- on for them, the antithesis of what generous approach to immigration larity in Ontario has suffered as well they’re getting,” he said. “[It’s some- will be fodder for Liberal election and that he will steer well clear of one] who compellingly says, ‘I feel strategists, and Conservative Leader Ford in the election. why your government serves the Andrew Scheer must keep his troops elite.’” He dismissed right wing Peo- from unfortunate anti-immigrant Anti-populist sentiment could well ple’s Party (PPC) head Maxime Ber- outbursts which would be fully ex- become a permanent part of the Lib- nier’s almost futile attempts to rally ploited by the Liberals. It will remain eral pitch. Will Trudeau position that minority. a stretch, however, for Liberals to de- himself as the bulwark against the pict Conservatives as anti-immigrant. Nevertheless, Liberal strategists have threat of authoritarianism, Trump- undoubtedly noted this with interest Scheer might consider that there style populism and anti-immigrant and may be tempted to position Jus- are solid non-racist arguments to be xenophobia invading our peace- tin Trudeau as the saviour of Canada made against increasing immigra- ful land? It’s tempting, to be sure, from “creeping populism”. tion levels—a view held by many particularly given how his stump in his base. A recent New York Times speech is built. On the other hand, here is good research that opinion piece by David Leonhardt will Scheer and Rempel turn up the shows how divergent atti- quotes labour historian Irving Ber- volume on Trudeau’s missteps in im- T tudes to immigration could nstein: “Immigration restriction, migration and asylum seeker policy- play out in the election. An Environ- by making unskilled labour scarcer, making? Likely, but with great care.

September/October 2019 24

President Donald Trump at a rally in Charlotte, N.C. Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times Photo

Racism and xenophobia are power- Trudeau consistently vatives will certainly use Trudeau’s ful moral issues and there is little fight with provincial premiers over doubt that racism remains a prob- insists that he the carbon tax in their attacks on the lem in Canada—most notably in opposes the tactics of fear government. highly publicized cases in several and division, and he knows All in all, despite the attention be- police forces. Racism against Indig- he will benefit from the ing given to populism and authori- enous people is a huge problem, too. widespread dislike of the tarianism from Hungary to Britain Trump’s telling the four Democrat- and Brexit to Trump’s America, it is ic congresswomen of the progressive only populist government in difficult to argue that Canada, with “Squad” to go back where they came Canada, that of Doug Ford its entrenched multicultural mul- from provoked a flood of social and in Ontario. tiracial communities, will yield to other media from Canadians sharing these trends, or that the fear of pop- similar stories. “We can do better” ulism will be a decisive factor in the however, sounds very much like the next election. 2015 Trudeau. Patrick Gossage, press secretary to Prime t could be argued that a form of versity has argued in the Globe and Minister Pierre Trudeau from 1976-82, populism has already taken root Mail: “This is populism of a highly is the author of Close to the Charisma: I in Canada. That is the idea of a regionalist sort… the worrying over My Years between the Media and pure people being exploited by a cor- whether the right-wing populists Pierre Elliott Trudeau, and founding rupt elite. What Washington Post col- will take power in Canada misses chair of Media Profile, a Toronto media umnist George Will has called “cur- the fact they already have. They’ve consulting and PR firm. dled envy and resentment.” This merely taken to the provincial lev- is certainly evident in attitudes in el of politics to air their grievances Western Canada, particularly Alberta and accomplish their goals.” Could and Saskatchewan, against the Otta- this be countered by the Liberals wa, Toronto and Montreal elites. in a strongly worded national uni- As Andrew Potter from McGill Uni- ty pitch? We will see. The Conser-

Policy 25

The ‘Big E’ Election— Energy and the Environment

In a country that remains a major oil producing nation federal tax would then be rebated to the province in which it was col- and whose energy policy landscape includes political, lected—not to the provincial govern- regional, jurisdictional and Indigenous rights consider- ment, but to individual taxpayers. ations, the term “pipeline politics” doesn’t begin to cover winning the pipeline would the complexity of the issue. In an election year, things get almost triple its capacity to more interesting. T 900,000 barrels per day, open- ing the potential for oil exports to Asia, particularly, it is hoped, to Chi- na. But environmental organizations Don Newman ficulty of the approach is that relies and some Indigenous leaders have heavily on communications that ef- decried the proposed expansion of his year’s federal election fectively explain the overlap to the Trans Mountain, and they have re- should be the “Big E” election. general public because neither the peatedly fought and delayed its con- T The E stands for both ener- energy industry nor environmental struction in court. gy and environment, and in politi- activists will be completely or consis- cal terms, how they interconnect in tently satisfied. Things became so bad for the Trans a country and for a government that Mountain expansion plan that in the has to balance the interests of a pow- In Canada, that balancing act is com- spring of 2018, its American own- erful energy industry, a tradition of plicated by issues of government fi- er, Kinder Morgan, said it was drop- passionate environmental advocacy nance, federal and provincial political ping the proposal. To save the proj- and the sustainability of the planet. and jurisdictional tensions, and the ect, the federal government bought debate over taxes on individuals and the existing pipeline and the expan- That dynamic is the biggest issue fac- corporations. When it came to power sion proposal from Kinder Morgan, ing the country, an issue of national four years ago, Justin Trudeau’s Lib- for $4.7 billion. unity, of economic development, of eral government had an energy and employment, of this country’s envi- environment plan it thought would But that didn’t improve the expan- ronment and Canada’ s internation- cover all the bases. It would support sion’s chances. Three months lat- al commitments. and encourage the twinning of the er, the Federal Court of Appeal ruled Trans Mountain pipeline, which car- Ottawa had not sufficiently consult- The Trudeau government’s approach ries Alberta oil sands oil to a tank- ed with Indigenous groups, or taken to reconciling the immediate in- er terminal in Vancouver harbour. into account possible adverse effects terests of the oil industry and its It would also seek to limit Canada’s on maritime populations in the wa- 300,000 workers, the environmental greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ters off Vancouver from a dramatic necessity to transition to clean en- work towards meeting Canada’s cli- increase in tanker traffic. ergy and the urgency of fighting cli- mate change commitments. mate change has been a combina- Earlier this summer, almost a year af- tion of environmental activism and That was to be achieved by having ter the court ruling, the federal gov- pipeline development. This seeming- the provinces put a price on carbon; ernment said both of those issues had ly contradictory policy juggle mir- either by a direct tax or through a been addressed, and the pipeline ex- rors similar tacks by other govern- cap-and-trade system of sharing car- pansion was approved for a second ments, including, pre-Trump, Barack bon credits. Provinces that refused to time. But some environmental and Obama’s “all of the above” approach go along would have the federal gov- Indigenous groups are already threat- that both supported fracking toward ernment impose its own carbon tax ening new court challenges. They energy independence and increased in those recalcitrant jurisdictions, will join the government of British solar power production by 2003 per scaling up to $50 dollars per tonne Columbia, which is already in court cent, among other outcomes. The dif- by 2022. The money collected by the trying to stop the twinning of Trans

September/October 2019 26

A tanker arriving at Westridge Marine Terminal in Burrard Inlet, Burnaby, BC. Trans Mountain Pipeline Corporation photo

Mountain, and a start date for the which would then be used in the de- out a proposal and a vision of an en- new pipeline remains in doubt. velopment of green technologies. ergy future that is much more reliant on pipeline development, without Moreover, in the four years since The Conservatives support the Trans the carbon tax to help transition to the pipeline/carbon tax plan was de- Mountain expansion but they want an economy with fewer GHG emis- vised by the Trudeau government, to go a lot farther. They want to de- sions and less global warming. a lot of things have changed. Pro- velop “resource corridors” across vincial elections in Alberta, Mani- Canada. These would be dedicated For its part, Elizabeth May’s Green toba, Ontario and New Brunswick rights of way negotiated across the Party, the national branch of a glob- have replaced governments sympa- country into which new pipelines, al brand built on environmental and thetic to Ottawa’s pipeline for car- high voltage electricity transmission climate change activism whose posi- bon tax proposal with Conservative lines, and other ways of moving en- tions have been mainstreamed over governments that support the pipe- ergy—perhaps even railways—would the past two decades, has labelled its line expansion, but have been scrap- be routed. Such corridors are neces- 2019 energy policy Mission: Possible, a ping carbon reduction programs and sary, the Conservatives say, for Can- title widely seen as overly ambitious challenging Ottawa’s constitutional ada to be the “energy superpower” it when it was published in May. right in court—so far unsuccessful- must become. ly—to impose a carbon tax. The next government will be formed On the winning side so far, the fed- As the campaign by either the Liberal party or the Con- eral government is preparing to im- gets underway, the servatives. The only chance the New Democrats or the Greens have to play pose its carbon tax in the recalci- lines have been firmly trant Conservative provinces. But any meaningful role is if Canadians the federal Conservatives have op- drawn between the two elect a minority Parliament with one posed the carbon tax from the begin- parties who can actually or both of the NDP and Greens hold- ning, claiming that it is just another win, on the ‘Big E’ election ing the balance of power. tax that will not reduce carbon emis- issue that will do more to But as the campaign gets underway, sions. And if they win the October the lines have been firmly drawn be- election, the federal carbon tax will shape Canada’s future than tween the two parties who can actu- disappear. any other. ally win, on the “Big E” election issue that will do more to shape Canada’s his past spring, Conservative future than any other. leader Andrew Scheer revealed T his own energy and environ- Policy columnist Don Newman is Senior ment plan. It would have no carbon The negotiations over and potential Counsel at Navigator and Ensight tax per se, but would force large com- court challenges to such an ambitious Canada and a Lifetime Member of the mercial emitters to pay into a fund, plan boggle the mind. But it does lay Parliamentary Press Gallery.

Policy 27

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, accompanied by Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains meets with Zhang Dejiang, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. December 5, 2017. Adam Scotti photo Being Back: Foreign Policy as a Campaign Issue

When Justin Trudeau summed up his foreign policy in Jeremy Kinsman 2015 with the message to the world that Canada was oreign policy rarely figures as a back, the world—including the players who didn’t like driving issue in Canadian elec- F tions. But in 2019, Canada’s it or didn’t care—knew what he meant. Since then, he’s place in the world and international been tweet-targeted by Donald Trump, sealed a major stability itself are severely challenged, in large part because of the disruptive trade agreement with Europe and faces a crisis with Chi- actions of the world’s most powerful na. Longtime senior diplomat Jeremy Kinsman looks at country—and historically our most the politics of foreign policy four years later. important ally—next door. Howev- er, don’t expect leaders to prioritize foreign policy in the campaign. (At this writing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not yet accepted an invi- tation for the Munk School of Glob- al Affairs and Public Policy debate scheduled for Oct. 1). Campaigning tends to be about what strategists call pocketbook or kitch- en-table issues and always leader- ship, but rarely geopolitics. The em- phasis is on communications and

September/October 2019 28 leaders’ images, not substance. Once in office, Trudeau affirmed strengthened Trudeau won’t get a free ride on for- eign policy in the campaign but isn’t bilateralism while also declaring he would ensure under much pressure either. that ‘Canada’s back’ as a multilateral player. For Obama’s

Canadian political parties have basi- final year, it looked great. cally shared a postwar internation- alist consensus to support effective multilateral rules-based cooperation whenever possible. It’s always been seen as an essential hedge against But incompatibility with Barack fort. The revised NAFTA agreement over-dependence on the United Obama—who was wildly popu- is more of a defensive save than the States, whose primordial importance lar in Canada—worked against Ste- kind of groundbreaking win/win out- to Canada is accepted, but whose in- phen Harper’s re-election in 2015. come that describes the far-reaching fluence and methods are not always In his come-from-behind campaign, Comprehensive Economic and Trade benign. To the extent that issues of Trudeau was happy to celebrate Agreement (CETA) with the EU. But sovereignty and national identity Obama’s like-minded liberal inter- in light of the magnitude of Canadian have occasionally surged as electoral nationalism. Once in office, Trudeau economic stakes with the U.S., it was factors, it has almost always been to affirmed strengthened bilateralism essential to close a deal, however mod- do with the U.S., pro or con. while also declaring he would ensure est. Because Democrats are so anxious that “Canada’s back” as a multilater- to find arguments against Trump, it In 1963, Conservative Prime Minis- al player. For Obama’s final year, it may not win congressional approval, ter John Diefenbaker’s opposition to looked great. but it at least won’t be an electoral vul- accepting the basing of U.S. nucle- nerability for Trudeau. ar-tipped Bomarc anti-aircraft mis- Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s elec- siles on Canadian soil was a factor in tion in 2016 upended the assumptions Still, it is now commonplace to as- the defeat of his minority Progressive on both counts. In Canada, Trump is sert that the world is today a meaner Conservative government. In 1988, the least popular U.S. president ever. and more dangerous place. Trump’s John Turner made Liberal opposition No one running for national office “America first” approach to foreign to the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agree- here would dare support his style, ap- relations, his disdain for both multi- ment the “fight of his life.” The Liber- parent values, or the substance of his lateral cooperation and America’s af- als were outflanked by the Mulroney actions, and expect to win. finity for customary democratic al- government’s support for cultural in- On the other hand, the temptation lies have been globally disruptive and dustries, which neutralized the argu- to run a populist Canadian campaign run against Canadian values and in- ment that our national identity was against Trump is dampened by the ternational interests. threatened by what was then the cautionary principle that Canadians Does this open a perception of differ- Canada-U.S. Trade Agreement. still expect their own leader to be able ence between Trudeau and Andrew Indirectly, the popularity or unpop- to maintain a civil and fair transac- Scheer, whose Conservative base is ularity in Canada of a U.S. president tional relationship with the powerful more receptive to the Washington can lift or hurt prime ministers seek- U.S. leader, which in effect exempts security community’s call for tradi- ing re-election. Among the unpopu- Canada from his impulsive vindic- tional U.S. allies to get into line? For lar, Canadians loathed Richard Nix- tiveness. Once he got past the unprec- some, the world’s current disruption on, whose dislike of Pierre Trudeau edented irritant of Trump’s tweeted and danger argue Canada should in- was a political asset at home. Trudeau insults after the Charlevoix G-7 (call- deed be sure that America “has our was also generally applauded for ing his Canadian host “weak and dis- back.” keeping Canada out of Lyndon John- honest”) the prime minister belatedly In light of Trump’s caprice and men- son’s Vietnam War, as was Jean Chré- began to explicitly dissociate himself dacity in his approach to Canada since tien over George W. Bush’s war in and Canadians from the president’s 2016, and given that he is the cause of Iraq. Personal compatibility worked offensive assertions (as opposed to much of the global disruption, the no- electorally for prime ministers who saying it’s “not my job to opine” on tion of giving the U.S. our back seems were pals with presidents popular in what the U.S. President says). to most Canadians to be somewhere Canada—Pierre Trudeau with Jimmy between darkly hilarious and suicidal. Carter, Chrétien with Bill Clinton. n the overarching Canada- Canadian public opinion had, since U.S. issue—the re-negotiation The Liberals will instead pump for 1980, been cool to Ronald Reagan’s O of NAFTA—Trudeau pushed their dual approach of strengthening conservative and hawkish rhetoric, back calmly on Trump’s repeated the rules-based international order, in- but by 1988 had warmed to the man lies. Foreign Affairs Minister Chrys- cluding the World Trade Organization himself and viewed his affection for tia Freeland led an outstanding ne- (WTO) and its role arbitrating trade Mulroney as a benefit to Canada. gotiating and political outreach ef- disputes and contesting unilateral

Policy 29 protectionism à la Trump, (and where thorities may indeed find that under Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, it’s a Canada is doing very useful reform the terms of the bilateral treaty that political non-starter. Freeland’s lead- work), while staying civil enough with Meng Wanzhou did not commit what ership on the Venezuela issue is also the White House to minimize further would be a crime in Canada subject to positive, even if concerted pressure disruption across our own border. a year’s imprisonment and release her, on the Maduro government isn’t hav- How will the campaign confront the enabling a solution. But this is unlike- ing much effect. A deepening of the overriding question of our era—the ly to emerge before the election. Hong Kong crisis and its impact on rivalry between a receding, more in- In the meantime, the hostage situa- the 300,000 Canadians there would ward and defensive, U.S., and a risen, tion looms over the campaign. What- test human rights commitments. expansionist China? Though the U.S. ever one thinks of the handling by Trudeau and especially Freeland have may be suspected of trying to contain the government of the initial U.S. been discussing with democratic China’s challenge to U.S. supremacy, request, the over-the-top Chinese partners the creation of an informal there is a U.S. political consensus that reprisals have hardened Canadian coalition to defend and reform mul- over twenty years China abused the political and public opinion, and dis- tilateralism and inclusive democracy. rules on trade and intellectual prop- couraged debate in public. Conser- The necessity to strengthen the rules- erty on its way to its current swagger. vatives deride clumsily triangulated based international order is a mes- Trump launched a trade war with Chi- comments from the former ambassa- sage Trudeau understands and com- na, via unilateral tariff hikes, that wid- dor to China that Trudeau hired and municates effectively. If our purpose ened to a technology war and even a fired, John McCallum, that the Tories is to be seen as “a useful country,” he currency war. Former Treasury Secre- will be tougher on Beijing if elected, serves it well enough (though very tary Larry Summers terms Trump’s de- and indeed call on the government probably not enough to enable us to mands of China more of a “shopping to renounce their “naive” wish over edge out impressively useful Ireland the years for a Canada-China part- list” of U.S. goods from key 2020 states and Norway for a UN Security Coun- nership. The Liberals will counter than serious trade policy, amount- cil seat in 2020). that Canada must succeed economi- ing to politically-motivated protec- Trudeau’s democratic peers abroad tionism. The negative implications cally in China, but will not bend be- are all worried about a backlash over for the U.S. economy, which will take fore an authoritarian regime that is immigration. Canada’s positive inte- a big hit from rising costs, have di- increasingly under negative interna- gration experience is one they wel- minished market confidence around tional scrutiny and pressure over pro- come referring to, though he has to the world, slowed global growth, and tests in Hong Kong and brutal repres- avoid sounding preachy to countries even threatened a recession. sion of its Uighur minority. whose geography is more challeng- On the broader issue of the govern- Given that the U.S. and China are ing than Canada’s from a migration ment’s international relations, Scheer Canada’s top two trading partners, standpoint. and that the fraught situation expos- did give a June speech calling them Trudeau hasn’t become the leader of es Canadian interests to unintended “disastrous,” citing various episodes the democratic world but he is wel- negative consequences, you would in which image prevailed over sub- comed as a like-minded partner of think the trilateral dynamic would be stance with embarrassing conse- confidence by international peers in- debated in this election campaign. quences—the dress-up jaunt to India, lecturing the Chinese on the role of cluding Angela Merkel, Emmanuel But Canada has its own crisis with women, ego-stiffing our partners at Macron, Jacinda Ardern and others. China, triggered by the December ar- the TPP Summit, the Charlevoix G-7 They like him; he has influence. rest at Vancouver airport of Huawei fiasco, but Trudeau has handled him- Trudeau has the advantage of ex- Executive Meng Wanzhou , on behalf self better recently. of U.S. authorities who seek her extra- perience in the job and a record on dition to stand trial for fraud charges Freeland has been a voice of some sig- the big files of defending Canadian of encouraging evasion of U.S. sanc- nificance whose global network from values as well as interests. At a time tions on Iran. her tenure as a senior editor at both when Trump’s behaviour has crys- the Financial Times and Thomson-Re- tallized those values in the minds of China swiftly retaliated for what they uters has served her well. To the ex- voters, that’s probably good enough consider a hostile act in support of tent the U.S. and China files and de- for most Canadians at least as far as U.S. antagonism to Huawei by arrest- fence of multilateralism enable her to foreign policy is concerned. ing two Canadians in China, creat- do anything else, she has been brave Policy Magazine contributing writer ing a hostage situation. U.S. authori- on human rights, especially on Sau- ties seem indisposed to dropping the Jeremy Kinsman is a former Canadian di Arabia’s strong-arming of dissi- ambassador to Russia, the UK and the extradition request. China upped the dent women. Some business-orient- EU. He is affiliated with University ante by closing imports of Canadian ed Conservatives (and others) seethe of , Berkeley, and is a canola, beef, and pork. about the commercial costs, but after distinguished fellow of the Canadian In the event, Canadian judicial au- the regime’s murder of Washington International Council.

September/October 2019 30

Is Fiscal Responsibility an Issue in the 2019 Campaign?

It isn’t often that a fiscal policy announcement upends the sury Secretary Larry Summers in the United States. Given the low interest trajectory of an election campaign narrative, but that’s what rates, why not borrow money to ad- Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s pledge on deficit spending dress public policy shortfalls includ- did in 2015. In four federal budgets since then, Finance ing a perceived infrastructure deficit? The Liberal strategy was widely con- Minister Bill Morneau has displayed none of the previous sidered to have played a part in the government’s fixation on balanced budgets and the results party’s decisive majority. have been generally positive, writes former Parliamentary Credibility of fiscal plans depends on a number of factors. The econom- Budget Officer Kevin Page. ic environment—fiscal policy (like monetary policy) can have an impor- tant impact (positive or negative) on Kevin Page paign, the NDP, then the Official Op- the growth of the economy. The fiscal position, had argued for a balanced balance sheet—the ability of govern- ith the federal election un- budget over the medium term, but ments to finance new proposals—will derway, it’s safe to say all proposed tax increases for the cor- depend on fiscal room to maneu- W parties are busy costing porate sector to help finance expan- ver linked to a number of factors, in- their campaign promises, and those sion of social programs. While a case cluding the budgetary balance, size of of their opponents, too. This tradi- could be made that what the NDP debt, and the carrying cost of public tion is strengthened this year as the proposed was responsible (sometimes debt interest. referred to by policy wonks as a bal- Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) Scott Clark—a past deputy minis- anced budget multiplier as taught by has been given resources to help par- ter of Finance in Canada—has made the late Paul Samuelson), some ob- ties cost individual measures. When the case that the bottom lines of fis- we add up all the individual measures servers were surprised that the NDP cal responsibility are about estab- costed by the PBO, how will political would recommend a balanced bud- lishing and maintaining a sustain- parties plan to pay the bill—will they get track like the Conservatives, giv- able medium-term (next five years) raise taxes or increase the public debt? en the weakness in the economy. and longer-term fiscal framework. It Will fiscal responsibility be front and In a move that shook up the cam- involves developing a fiscal strategy centre in the election? Have modest paign, the Liberals, the third party at and plan that allow governments to budgetary deficits become the new the time, made the case for deficit-fi- address public policy issues without normal? Is it time for a reset of fis- nanced spending on a range of pub- creating imbalances that lead to un- cal policy? lic policy issues including infrastruc- sustainable debt burdens that con- If we wind the clock back to the 2015 ture and child benefit programs. This strain the policy choices of future campaign, a case can be made that fis- approach stood out both politically governments and generations. cal policy played a role in the debate for staking out the NDP’s tradition- By those measures, the case can be and maybe the election outcome. As al terrain on the left and leveraging made that the fiscal policy of the Lib- you may recall, the Conservative gov- the Conservatives’ fiscal immobility eral government over the past four ernment’s fiscal strategy was a bal- on the right and policy-wise at a time years has been responsible. It kept fed- anced budget approach largely laid when austerity had acquired quite a eral budgetary deficits to a relative- out in Budget 2015. At the time, many bad name elsewhere in the world. It ly low percentage of GDP—less than observers argued that given the weak- was an approach that had the support one percentage point per year. In an ness in the economy—year over year of the International Monetary Fund environment of relatively low inter- growth in real gross domestic product as well as some leading economic est rates (i.e., the so-called negative in- (GDP) fell to zero—this fiscal strategy thinkers of our time including for- terest and growth rate environment likely hurt economic growth, at least mer governor David created following the 2008 finan- in the short run. Going into the cam- Dodge in Canada and former Trea- cial crash whereby effective interest

Policy 31 rates are lower than the nominal GDP 2016 and 2017 and as revenues ex- on the horizon are looking darker. growth rate), this level of budgetary ceeded expectations on the backs of The bond markets and a number of deficits is deemed sustainable over the a strong labour market. They chose economic commentators (including medium term. to spend the fiscal dividend. So, while Summers) are raising concerns about the Liberals may have been responsi- While the accumulative deficit in- a possible recession over the short ble they were not accountable. creased by $57 billion from 2014- term. International organizations are 15 to an estimated $686 billion in The current deficit is deemed to be calling for some moderation in global 2018-19, as a percent of GDP this lev- structural in nature as calculated by growth rates citing trade and growing el of debt is relatively low by domes- the Department of Finance (2018 Fis- uncertainty for business which will tic and international standards and cal Reference Tables). This raises the hurt investment due to U.S.—China only modestly above recent historical policy question, largely unanswered trade tensions. by the Liberals, of why run budgetary lows established before the 2008 cri- etting fiscal policy right in deficits when the economy is operat- sis. Notwithstanding the increase in the 2019 planning context ing at a healthy trend? Do we need public debt, the carrying cost of pub- means being prepared to navi- lic debt interest (gross public debt in- pro-cyclical fiscal policy to promote G growth if the unemployment rate is gate a potential economic shock over terest charges as a percent of budget- the next few years while aligning fiscal ary revenues) has actually fallen to at recent historic lows—below 6 per cent? While international organiza- policy to long term policy objectives historical lows because of the decline in a fiscally sustainable manner. in effective interest rates (see Chart 1). tions like the Organisation for Eco- Furthermore, and very importantly, nomic Cooperation and Development Year-over year growth in the Canadi- analysis by Finance, PBO and the IMF (OECD) have applauded Liberal gov- an economy now sits at 1.4 per cent. suggests that the federal fiscal struc- ernment efforts to make policies more It is a modest growth rate—much ture is sustainable over the long term inclusive—increased spending on higher than the growth rate going child benefits, Indigenous child wel- in the face of aging demographics (by into the 2015 election, but still a sig- fare, public infrastructure—it is more contrast, with the exception of Que- nificant deceleration from the 4.4 per of an open question as to whether this bec, provincial governments are not cent growth rate peak in the spring of spending has been efficient and effec- fiscally sustainable). 2017. Weakness in the goods sector tive. Clearly, the project management is restraining this growth rate. In ad- Is it nonetheless possible to critique and spending related to the disastrous dition, there has been ongoing weak- the Liberal government for shortfalls pay system inherited from the Harp- ness in investment raising concerns in fiscal policy? er government—the Phoenix system about the level of longer-term growth Absolutely. In their 2015 election is three times over budget with critical rates in Canada. platform, the Liberals promised a bal- operational failures—was not respon- sible fiscal management. Notwithstanding the roller coaster anced budget over the medium term. ride in growth over the past four years, This target was within reach in 2018- The economic winds are now blowing the economy now sits in a relatively 19 as the economy strengthened in in a different direction and the clouds good place—operating near its poten- tial. The unemployment rate stands at Chart 2: Federal Accumulated Deficit to GDP and Interest Bill to Revenue 5.7 per cent for July, compared to 7.1 per cent in October 2015. The level of employment stands at 19,030 thou- 50 25 sand, up from 18,007 thousand in Oc- 45 tober 2015. This is an impressive rate 40 20 of job creation—up more about 40 per cent over the previous four years (2011 35 to 2015). 30 15 PBO released its election proposal 25 costing (EPC) baseline projections in % OF GDP 20 10 June 2019. It is assumed that all politi- 15 cal parties will use it as their starting

% OF BUDGETARY REVENUES point in developing fiscal plans. 10 5 The PBO baseline assumptions are 5 largely consistent with Budget 2019. 0 0 Economic growth rates rebound in 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017 2020 and hover around potential over Federal Debt Interest to Tax (right scale) the medium term. The unemploy- ment rate remains at historic lows. Source: Department of Finance, 2018 Fiscal Reference Tables

September/October 2019 32 Short- and long-term interest rates rise baseline? Would an extra $20 billion employment of artificial intelligence moderately over the short term and of debt after four years fundamental- and robotization. We know that we then stabilize. Overall price inflation ly change Canada’s long- term fiscal need to increase investments in our is assumed to stay at 2 per cent. Oil health? The answer—it depends. youth where disparities are large, as is prices remain flat. Any new finance By and large, Canada could easily ab- the case for Indigenous children. minister would love to have this out- sorb modestly higher debt over the If political parties propose running look become reality. next medium term and remain fiscal- higher budgetary deficits over the me- Based on these largely favourable eco- ly sustainable over the long run. My dium term (than the PBO election nomic planning assumptions, the guess is that is what most political costing baseline), then citizens should PBO fiscal outlook has the projected parties plan to do—run higher bud- demand a quid pro quo. getary deficits. federal deficit in the $20 to $25 billion 1. As recommended by the IMF, range over the next two years, up from From a macroeconomic perspective, Canada should have fiscal $14 billion. The low deficit figure in this is not likely the best policy. With targets or a rule that constrains 2018-19 reflects strong growth in bud- an economy operating at potential government spending. The targets getary revenues, resulting in part from (long term trend), a better path is for or rule (involving the budgetary a strong labour market. Finance and fiscal policy to be neutral with respect balance, debt and program PBO expect revenues to more in line to growth (budgetary balance or small spending) should be sensitive to with historical norms thereafter. Over surpluses), not expansionary (struc- changes in economic outcomes. the medium term, the budgetary defi- tural budget deficits). 2. Political parties should commit to cit declines in nominal terms and as a From a public policy perspective, a open and transparent spending percent of GDP, but is not eliminated. political case could be made for run- reviews before significant ning modestly higher budgetary def- n this baseline fiscal outlook, be new spending is undertaken. icits. Clearly, economies like Cana- fore new political party measures, Reallocation of spending should da are facing significant adjustment be based on program evaluations which could be in the range of $2 I measures. We do not have plans with that are made publicly available. to $5 billion a year, modest budgetary numbers to show what it will take to As fiscal space is being used up that deficits of about 1 per cent of GDP are slow the increase in income disparity. will constrain future governments here to stay. We do not have plans with numbers and generations, we should ensure Is it responsible to run modest bud- to show the cost of adjustment to cli- all opportunities are undertaken to getary deficits over the medium term? mate change. We do not have plans improve the quality of spending What if all political parties simply with numbers to show the cost of ad- (e.g., performance, inclusion, add their PBO costed measures to this justment to the coming impact on longer-term investment) 3. We need political parties to Chart 2: 2019 EPC Fiscal Baseline Projection (Summary Level) strengthen the link between fiscal policy and well-being of citizens. PROJECTION $ billions Other countries, including New unless otherwise 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- Zealand—which tabled its first indicated 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 “wellbeing budget” in May—are Total budgetary 311.2 332.1 337.9 348.9 365.1 379.6 393.3 already moving down this path. In revenues this framework, budget measures Total program 308.3 322.9 334.9 345.2 350.7 360.3 371.2 and spending are presented to expenses citizens in a way that focuses Public debt 21.9 23.1 23.7 27.0 29.8 31.8 33.4 on what matters to well being charges (children, health, education, Total expenses 330.2 346.1 358.6 372.2 380.5 392.1 404.5 environment, communities etc). Budgetary International organizations like -19.0 -14.0 -20.7 -23.3 -15.4 -12.5 -11.2 balance the OECD are supporting this Federal debt 671.3 685.4 706.2 729.4 744.9 757.4 768.6 development with analytical tools % of GDP that demonstrate the importance Budgetary of a spending mix that supports 14.5% 15.0% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9% 14.9% revenues inclusive growth. Total expenses 15.4% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.5% 15.4% 15.3% Kevin Page, founding President and CEO of the Institute for Fiscal Budgetary -0.9% -0.6% -0.9% -1.0% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% balance Studies and Democracy at , was Canada’s first Federal debt 31.3% 30.9% 30.9% 30.8% 30.3% 29.7% 29.0% Parliamentary Budget Officer. Sources: Finance Canada and Parliamentary Budget Officer

Policy 33

The swearing-in ceremony for Canada’s first gender-equal cabinet, Rideau Hall, November 4, 2015.Adam Scotti photo Because it’s 2019: Checking in on Gender Budgeting in Canada

As our readers know, fiscal policy is the MRI of any Helaina Gaspard government’s principles and priorities, which makes the and Emily Woolner budgeting process the place where the rubber meets the ollowing the Liberal victory road on issues of equality. Canada introduced Gender- in the 2015 federal election, F Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Based Analysis in 1995 and the Trudeau government sent a strong message by establishing has doubled down on the process, an undertaking lauded Canada’s first gender-equal cabinet. Since then, the federal government by both the International Monetary Fund and the Or- has been very vocal in its commit- ganisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ment to “embed feminism in all as- but which could benefit from stronger performance in- pects of government work.” centives and results measurement. The Liberal victory in 2015 was strongly affected by the support of fe- male voters. According to Elections Canada, over nine million women voted in the 2015 federal election, and 42 per cent of those women vot- ed Liberal, as opposed to 25 per cent Conservative and 23 per cent NDP. Certainly, above and beyond the pol- icy considerations, the government’s

September/October 2019 34 commitment to gender equality is a The government can be applauded for making a political pitch to retain those crucial Liberal voters. clear political commitment to change through the adoption of frameworks, strategies and reporting A notable example is the implemen- tation of ‘Gender-Based Analysis Plus’ requirements. But how will the government measure the (GBA+), an analytical tool designed connection between its GBA+ strategies and results to assess how government policies, over time? programs, and legislation impact di- verse groups of women, men and non-binary people. Although it has been used at the federal level since the mid-1990s, the government has ing’ but whether fiscal policies and that significant improvements were expanded the scope and effect of this public financial management (PFM) needed to implement and moni- program in recent years. Since 2015, practices and tools are formulated tor the effectiveness of GBA+ in the Status of Women Canada (SWC), the and implemented with a view to pro- government. Despite the promotion Treasury Board Secretariat (TBS), and moting and achieving gender equali- of GBA+ by Privy Council, Treasury the Privy Council Office (PCO) have ty objectives, and allocating adequate Board and Status of Women, these shared responsibility for integrat- resources for achieving them.” efforts had not translated into con- ing GBA+ into government process- crete action on the part of depart- Canada is recognized in the IMF re- es. Since 2018, GBA+ has become the ments and agencies. The challenge, port as having implemented gender guiding framework for gender bud- it appears, is the translation of stated budget statements and gender im- geting in Canada. commitments into practice. pact assessments, as well as having Budget 2019 included an entire chap- partially applied relevant gender per- In response, the newly elected gov- ter dedicated to GBA+ analysis, with formance indicators, parliamentary ernment developed an Action Plan commitments and investments to control and oversight measures, and on Gender-based Analysis (2016- narrow gaps in areas such as wag- gender audits. 2020) to support the full implemen- es and labour-force participation be- tation of GBA+ across federal depart- tween men and women. The govern- Similarly, a 2018 Organisation for Eco- ments and agencies. ment can be applauded for making a nomic Cooperation and Development clear political commitment to change (OECD) report applauded the Cana- Interestingly, this plan focuses on en- through the adoption of frameworks, dian government’s tangible progress couraging better behaviour without strategies and reporting require- in various institutions, policies, and incentivizing an outcome. Public ser- ments. But how will the government accountability structures to promote vants in executive positions manage measure the connection between gender mainstreaming in government a variety of competing issues and per- its GBA+ strategies and results over activities. The creation of the depart- spectives from equity to official lan- ment of Women and Gender Equality time? In its current form, the GBA+ guages, as well as their own policy (WAGE), the addition of GBA+ assess- strategy requires alignment to invest- portfolios and legally-defined finan- ments attached to budget proposals, ments, programs and policies to help cial reporting requirements. The cur- and the government’s Gender Results to trace, for instance, its potential im- rent parameters for GBA+ analysis are Framework, were among the accom- pact on narrowing the wage gap and compelling at first glance but may be plishments listed. equalizing labour force participation. insufficient to have a real policy im- pact beyond a change in rhetoric. For While gender budgeting is a stated ut what do these assessments instance, the Government of Cana- policy goal of the current govern- really mean? Is GBA+ working da’s Gender Results Framework re- ment, what does it mean in practice? in Canada in practice by B mains quite vague. Aside from listing How do Canada’s practices on GBA+ changing behaviour and influencing a few key objectives for gender equal- compare to those in other countries? decisions to change results over time? ity (e.g. “Equal and full participation Does the current GBA+ structure en- Or, is Canada resting on political in the economy”) and showcasing able government and citizens to track commitments without the requisite some recent government initiatives results over time? reporting system to link investments (e.g. the Canada child benefit), it of- to outcomes over the medium- and The IMF’s 2017 survey on gender fers virtually no explanation as to long-terms? budgeting among G7 countries found how government policies, initia- that statements on gender budgeting In 2015, in his fall reports complet- tives, and investments are connected impact assessments alone do not im- ed before the election of the Trudeau to measurable results. One can argue ply outcomes: it is “not whether an government that October, Cana- that it’s nearly impossible to define initiative is labeled as ‘gender budget- da’s Auditor General (AG) reported causality on social policies and pro-

Policy 35 grams, but performance budgeting This is arguably a more effective ap- health, agriculture, and infrastruc- never hurts. Linking investments in proach than the gender budget state- ture, before expanding its practices policies and programs to desired out- ment used in Canada, which is more to national and subnational govern- comes is more likely to generate tar- akin to a mission statement. India ments. So too in Canada, an active gets and plans to achieve goals. As it has also institutionalized a Gender strategy on a smaller number of crit- stands, there is no clear way of under- Budget Secretariat into its Ministry of ical policies, well-executed with pro- standing the influence or impact of Finance and has created Gender Bud- vincial/territorial and municipal Canada’s GBA+ commitments with- geting Cells (GBC) in different sec- partners, could be more impactful out an evaluation framework that’s toral ministries. These GBCs are gov- than a passive response across the connected to budgets and policies. erned by a charter established by the federal government. Ministry of Finance and are respon- International peers outside of the sible for reviewing departmental pro- When compared to other jurisdic- G7 have lessons for Canada to help grams and conducting performance tions, Canada’s approach to GBA+ is it enhance the application of GBA+ audits, organizing training and work- directionally sound but weak in op- as more than a policy statement, but shops, and disseminating informa- erationalization. Looking to the cases an integral component of its budget tion and best practices. The states of highlighted above, there are a num- plans and performance assessments. Karnataka and Kerala have integrated ber of practices and lessons the next Consider Austria, an early adopter similar measures into their respective government may wish to adopt if it of gender budgeting, and a globally state machineries. is serious about aligning resources to recognized leader in the area with its outcomes on gender-related matters. outcome-oriented approach to gen- The key practices include: der budgeting. All federal ministries In India, the and national bodies in Austria are re- government has 1) Emphasize the importance quired to submit gender equality ob- developed gender budget of the issue by requiring (not requesting) that analysis aligned jectives and devise appropriate out- statements using analytical puts and indicators in preparation to outcomes be undertaken for the annual budget. Austria also matrices for gender when submitting budget incorporates gender equality evalua- budgeting, which ministries proposals (as in Austria). tions into impact assessments, perfor- and departments use to 2) Define the purpose and goals of mance reports, and into the purview design policies and request GBA+ for Canada in concrete of the Austrian Court of Audit. By funding. This is arguably a terms, with measurable metrics connecting spending to measurable against which policy proposals and relevant outcomes, the OECD has more effective approach than can be tested (as in India). said, the Austrian approach is a “lead- the gender budget statement ing international practice” in gender used in Canada, which is 3) Demonstrate progress by budgeting. Canada could emulate more akin to a mission focusing and targeting initial this practice by integrating gender statement. efforts on GBA+ analysis to budgeting into a performance man- specific departments and issues. agement framework. To do this, the Instead of trying to revolutionize federal government could develop an entire system at once, work and align equality targets to resource- incrementally to integrate the allocation decisions for priorities in analysis first in departments and the Gender Results Framework. This In addition to increasing funding for agencies that stand to have the could enhance political and adminis- women—particularly in the health most impact (as in Rwanda). trative transparency for resources and sector—and improving monitoring for results. and implementation mechanisms at Canada can be credited with its com- the national level, Mexico City has mitment to gender budgeting. It now rogress can also be made at the launched measures relating to em- has an opportunity to link that com- local level. India and Mexico, ployment, social services, and safe mitment into measurable results. P for example, have extended ef- urban transportation for women. In- forts to subnational jurisdictions, deed, it is sometimes more practical Helaina Gaspard is director, governance such as states and cities. In India, the to focus on specific policy sectors in & institutions, Institute of Fiscal Studies government has developed gender order to achieve meaningful gender- and Democracy (IFSD) at the University budget statements using analytical equality results, as evidenced by the of Ottawa. Emily Woolner is a research matrices for gender budgeting, which case of Rwanda. Rwanda began gen- assistant at the IFSD. This piece is an ministries and departments use to der budgeting with four pilot pro- update of an article published by IFSD design policies and request funding. grams in the ministries of education, in May, 2019.

September/October 2019 36

Thrirty-three years after their historic 1984 campaign debate, Brian Mulroney and John Turner share a collegial moment at a Speaker’s reception marking the 150th anniversary of the first sitting of Parliament in November 2017.House of Commons photo

The Debate that Changed Debates

Leaders’ debates have become heavily coached and Peter Mansbridge prepped affairs, exhaustively rehearsed in mock match- he membership of the living ups that produce moments choreographed down to Former Prime Ministers of cocked eyebrows and eye-rolls. It’s a convention of cam- T Canada Club isn’t that big. It’s seven names—Joe Clark, John Turn- paign culture that arose largely as a result of one riv- er, Brian Mulroney, Kim Campbell, eting, game-changing exchange in the 1984 campaign Jean Chrétien, and Ste- phen Harper—and it’s rare that they that Canadian candidates have spent years trying to re- all gather in the same room. It’s an peat or, more often, avoid. exclusive club, to be sure, with some bitter old rivalries on that list that have lasted decades. But in June of this year, they were all together in Ottawa, championing the same cause. It was a special din-

Policy 37 ner to celebrate one member’s 90th With the TV leaders’ debate still to come, the birthday. John Napier Turner, once Liberals were hoping for a strong showing to hang the darling of the Liberal Party, the “crown prince” they called him dur- on to power. Turner was experienced, while Tory leader ing the Pierre Trudeau days, the man Mulroney, they thought, was not. who would in 1984 become the coun- try’s 17th prime minister, if only for a couple of months. It had been a long-anticipated run-up—as justice journos who’d been there in the to Turner, he ordered up more than minister, finance minister and lead- 1980s—would thunder. And they 200 patronage appointments for Lib- er-in-waiting, in exile on — did. They remembered. How could eral loyalists, forcing Turner to ei- to a reign that came crashing to the they forget? ther cancel them or make them. He ground before it really started. not only didn’t cancel them, he add- Sitting in the room ready to say a few ack in the summer of 1984, ed another 70 of his own. So, on the words about their fellow club mem- with that year’s election cam- evening of July 25, six weeks before ber were Messrs. Clark, Chrétien and B paign in its final weeks, the the September 4th election, when Martin. Sending video wishes were Liberals were in trouble. Turner, who the English-language leaders’ de- Ms. Campbell along with Messrs. had started off with a lead thanks bate turned to patronage, Mulroney Mulroney and Harper (a future mem- to his June leadership convention had plenty of ammunition in target- ber, Justin Trudeau, made a guest ap- victory, suffered gaffe after gaffe. ing what looked like Turner’s double pearance). Each chose their words There were allegations of “bum pat- weakness in both doing Trudeau’s carefully but the bottom line was the ting”, rusty performances at the po- bidding and then failing to take re- same; they were full of praise and dium and muddled policy announce- sponsibility for it. kind comments and you could tell ments. It all seemed to open the door MULRONEY: “You owe the Canadian John Turner was moved. It was one for Mulroney. But with the TV lead- people a profound apology.” of those nice, non-partisan evenings ers’ debate still to come, the Liberals most of us find hard to associate with were hoping for a strong showing to Turner was on his heels but still, he Ottawa anymore. hang on to power. Turner was expe- could have let it pass. He didn’t, in- stead responding chin first. There were a few good laughs, and rienced, while Tory leader Mulroney, one moment that brought the house they thought, was not. TURNER: “I have told you and I told down. The Mulroney video was vin- In Canada, TV debates had started the Canadian people Mr. Mulroney tage MBM, as his friends call him. in 1968 and usually, it was all about that …..” and then came the big mis- take, “I had no option.” There he was, probably in his Mon- the optics and expectations. In the treal law office, dressed impeccably, first one, Robert Stanfield looked old, MULRONEY: “You had an option, everything in place. Perfectly ironed Pierre Trudeau didn’t. Trudeauma- sir, you could have said, ‘I’m not go- shirt, sharp tie, gold cuff links, I’m nia won. In 1979, people expected ing to do it, this is wrong for Canada sure. And then, out came that boom- the inexperienced and often clum- and I am not going to ask Canadians ing baritone with his tribute. I didn’t sy Clark would stumble and bumble to pay the price.’ You had an option take notes, so I’m paraphrasing, but before the cameras. He didn’t, and to say no, and you chose to say yes, the gist was: he won. In 1980, the Liberals had yes to the old attitudes and the old an early, major lead in the polls af- stories of the Liberal Party. That’s not “John, I wish I was there. I had every ter Clark’s minority government had good enough for Canadians.” intention of being there. But when I fallen over an unpopular budget. told Mila I had to go to Ottawa, she “I had no option,” Turner repeated Trudeau declined to participate in was not happy. She told me we had lamely. a debate on the grounds that Cana- long ago made other commitments dians had seen him, Clark and NDP “That is an avowal of failure,” Mul- for the evening. I tried to make the Leader debate less than roney interrupted. “That is a con- case, but the harder I tried the more a year earlier. It was really an effort fession of non-leadership, and this firm she got. It was an argument to avoid any unforced errors, and it country needs leadership. You had I lost.” worked. The lead held and Trudeau an option, sir, you could have done And then, in the way only great story- cruised back to power. Which brings better.” tellers can pull off, there was that Mul- us to the key moment of the 1984 de- Game, set, match Mulroney. And roney pause before the punch line. bate, if not the entire campaign. the largest majority government in the country’s history followed weeks “John,” he said, waiting another beat s Trudeau was slipping out later, with the Conservatives win- for impact, “John, I had no option.” the door of government and ning 211 seats in what was then a He knew the crowd—full of pols and A before he handed the keys 262-seat House.

September/October 2019 38 or all the hype that often sur- to debate night, often by the media What Mulroney and Turner proved rounds media coverage of de- seemingly desperate for a “moment”. was that prep is important but noth- F bates, it’s actually pretty rare You know the lines they use. I sure ing beats being natural and reacting for signature moments like that one do, having used them enough my- with exactly what you really believe. to happen. I’ve seen all the debates self: “the big mistake”, “the knock- It can be dangerous—disastrous, since the first one in 1968 and while out punch”. But history has proven even—but it can also produce the each has been worth watching if that, in the event, those moments winning moment. for no other reason than to intro- rarely happen. duce the leaders in a somewhat un- When Brian Mulroney dropped his filtered way to the voters, few, other erhaps part of the reason is the one-liner on the crowd in Ottawa in than ’84, have contained moments leaders now train, in some June of this year, I quickly glanced that actually framed the election. P cases, for months to have the at John Turner. That line in its orig- Ironically, the same two men four right words and phrases to handle inal form had been devastating. It years later had perhaps the second- their opponents. What to say and had arguably cost him his dream all best debate moment when Turn- perhaps more importantly, what not those years ago, but there he was on er challenged Mulroney’s patrio- to say. Image consultants suggest this night laughing just like the rest tism over the Canada-US Free Trade what to wear, where to look, when of the room. It had taken 35 years, Agreement. to smile, when to frown. Stand-ins but in that instant at least, the pain are brought in to play rivals as staged was gone. “I believe you have sold us out,” debates are played out trying to an- That, too, was a moment. A good Turner told Mulroney, tapping into ticipate what might happen and one. For everyone. a deep- seated fear among some vot- how best to counter attacks from the ers of Canada’s economy and culture other side. Contributing Writer Peter Mansbridge, being taken over by the Americans. longtime anchor and chief Mulroney was rocked but recovered In some cases, potential lines are test- correspondent of CBC’s The National, in the final weeks of the campaign. ed, even focus-grouped to see how an audience will react. As a result, is now producing documentaries and Of the many debates since the clas- when the real action starts it’s some- appearing as a public speaker. He is sic Mulroney-Turner battles of the times almost comical because it’s so a Distinguished Fellow at the Munk 1980s, there has always been much obvious that certain moves or phras- School of Global Affairs and Public excitement in the days leading up es or looks were pre-programmed. Policy at the University of Toronto.

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Policy 39

Column / Don Newman In Case of Minority, Break Glass s campaigning heated up over different parts of the country could of Commons. At the same time, the the summer ahead of the Oc- become more common. opposition parties would be free to tober federal election, many A This fragmentation breaks with the make deals among themselves. public opinion polls were predicting status quo of the past half centu- The second vote would not be about that when the ballots are counted on ry, with the Conservatives having a anything specific. Just the question election night, Canadians will find stranglehold on the prairies and the of whether the government has the they’ve elected themselves a minor- Liberals anchored in Quebec. There confidence of the House. ity government. have been exceptions, particularly in If the government won that vote it If those predictions prove true, some Quebec, when first the Bloc Quebe- would continue in power. If it lost, will say the results reflect what Cana- cois and then the New Democrats re- the Governor-General would ask an- dians really want—for no single polit- placed the Liberals dominance. Those other party leader, almost certainly ical party to have complete control of exceptions usually produced Conser- the leader of the Opposition, to try to the country’s agenda for four years, vative governments. and for small parties to have some form a government. Forty-eight hours With all the parties competitive in at say in the decision making process. later, that new government would least some parts of the country, it will face the same simple confidence vote Others will see it the other way. That be difficult for Justin Trudeau and the in the House. If it survived the result, the instability that comes when no Liberals, or Andrew Scheer and the it would be in power, at least until party has a majority to control the Conservatives—the two leaders and the next confidence vote. But if it lost House Commons will lead to little be- parties that have the chance of form- the confidence question, the Gover- ing accomplished and the likelihood ing a government alone—to reach the nor-General would set the date for a of, before long, another election. 170 seats needed to control the House. general election. If history tells us anything, it’s that This plan is attractive on a number of minority governments often beget ith the increasing possi- fronts. While it preserves the oppor- other minority governments. In the bility of minority govern- tunity for minority parties to force an 1960s, between June 1962 and No- Wments, it’s time for a election if they want to, minority gov- vember 1965, three elections pro- change in the rules of the House of ernments, knowing they could also be duced three minority governments, Commons to make things more sta- replaced without an election, would one Progressive Conservative and ble, and to fit with the fixed date elec- two Liberal. tions act that was also designed to govern themselves accordingly. do that. More recently, between June of 2004 Right away, they would be more con- and October 2008, three elections As the saying goes, “It’s too late to ciliatory and consultative with the produced three minority govern- fix the roof when it is raining,” and other parties in the House; more ments, one Liberal and two Conser- the partisan self-interest demonstrat- careful of things that could grow into vative. As the polls have been sug- ed by all MPs in the last Parliament scandals and cause major shifts in gesting, the coming election may well when they considered electoral re- public opinion. In all, produce better produce a minority government after form shows how difficult any change government all round. two majorities in a row, but wheth- can be. So, we should consider a plan If the coming election produces a mi- er that happens this time or not, mi- now for operating in minority parlia- nority government, it is too bad that nority governments are likely to be a ments that would, over a period of the rule changes won’t be in place to bigger part of Canada’s political and time, benefit all parties equally. make the House of Commons more electoral future. Under this proposal, a minority gov- predictable. In that case, the only That’s because regional voting pat- ernment defeated on a budget vote thing that can be hoped for is that an terns and the growing number of po- or other confidence measure would increasing number of minority gov- litical parties that are competitive in have forty-eight hours to collect itself ernments in the future would con- at least some of the regions presage and negotiate with other parties be- vince politicians and the public that that success for different parties in fore facing another vote in the House the rule changes are necessary.

September/October 2019 40

Ask this audience of voters about health care and they’ll tell you it’s back as a ballot question in 2019. BC NDP Flickr photo

Could Health Care be on the Ballot Again?

Health care is arguably the second-most politically Shachi Kurl charged issue in Canada after pipelines. It is the cor- ealth care may be a revered nerstone of a social safety net that Prime Minister Canadian value, but it has Brian Mulroney once famously called a “sacred trust” Hbeen more than 20 years since it’s had the potential to be- between Canadians and governments of all parties. This come an actual ballot issue in a na- election season, the more precise ballot question may be tional campaign. pharmacare. Arguably, the last time issues of health care access, treatment, cover- age and funding elbowed their way onto the election agenda was 1997,

Policy 41 when the Liberals, then led by Jean For the first time in a long time, federal party Chrétien, found themselves on the leaders are finding themselves compelled to say receiving end of acrimony rather than applause for announcing dur- something about our physical well being. ing the first week of the campaign that they would cancel planned cuts in health transfers to the provinces. But even then, the coverage and crit- icism had more to do with the tim- ing of the move than with health August, the government unveiled a tion to an issue once they’ve figured funding policy. plan to reform the regulation of pre- out it’s important to their potential scription drugs to reduce patented voting bases. Crucially, for Cana- Since then, health care has not ex- drug prices. dians over 55—the very ones who actly been the driving issue for vot- may be reliably counted on to actu- ers. This year may be different. For Also in June, the NDP unveiled its ally vote—their lived experiences in- the first time in a long time, federal party’s platform, including a univer- teracting with the systems meant to party leaders are finding themselves sal pharmacare program, with plans safeguard and improve their health compelled to say something about to eventually see coverage for den- reveals a structure showing signs of our physical well being. tal care, eye care, hearing care and flu-like symptoms. other costs enshrined in the Canada In June, the Trudeau government’s Health Act. Advisory Council on the Implemen- comprehensive study from tation of National Pharmacare sub- In August, Conservative Leader An- the Angus Reid Institute finds mitted its report to Parliament rec- drew Scheer, if elected promised Aone-in-five Canadians aged ommending the creation of a new to increase health and social trans- 55 and older, upwards of two million drug agency that would expand the fer payments by at least three per people, report accessing primary care list of prescription medicines cov- cent a year. He said he was making has been a significant problem. Chal- ered by the taxpayer at an eventual the commitment to dispel any sug- lenges run the spectrum from having cost of $15 billion a year. Trudeau gestion from his opponents that he difficulty seeing a family doctor or endorsed the council’s recommen- would cut spending. GP (26 per cent say this), to waiting dations, which essentially double for advanced diagnostic tests, an ap- down on the pharmacare provi- Usually, politicians—and their war pointment with a specialist, or sur- sions of the 2019 federal budget. In room strategists—start paying atten- gery. They are also twice as likely to

Primary Care: How Easy is it to See Your Doctor?

I something comes up ho easy or diicult is it to get an appointment to see your amily doctorP among those ages ho have a amily doctor n1919

asyI can get in within a day or two 32%

sually have to wait at least a few days but could be sooner if I need to 42%

Difficultsually taes at least a wee or more to get an aointment 26%

Source: Angus Reid

September/October 2019 42 One-in-Six Face Barriers to Prescription Drug Access

In the past 12 months did you or anyone in your household do any o the olloing Those saying yes shon responses rom Canadians ages

% Decide to fill a rescrition for medicine 7 due to cost 10% % Decide to renew a rescrition 5 due to cost 9% % Do anything to mae a rescrition last longer 11 due to cost 12%

% Done any of the above 16 17%

2015 n562 2019 n2001

Source: Angus Reid

say the quality of health care in their ing or simply not filling prescrip- young children. Health is deeply own province is deteriorating rather tions at all, due to cost. personal and proprietary. than improving. Four years later, this struggle for a significant segment of the coun- f course, as much as some As much as some try is ongoing, especially for those parties may wish to define parties may wish to with household incomes lower than O health care as a ballot is- sue in the upcoming election, it is define health care as a $50,000. Where you live also makes a difference, with those in Alberta impossible to know what exactly ballot issue in the and Atlantic Canada most affected. will move voters until we are into upcoming election, it is Little wonder then, that politicians the thick of the campaign. Will the impossible to know what are sensing Canadians’ anxiety, ghosts of SNC-Lavalin come back exactly will move voters while also anxious themselves to to haunt the Trudeau government? until we are into the thick find a way to gain political advan- Will the performance and leadership tage by talking about it. of Scheer and Singh be deciding fac- of the campaign. tors? One way or the other, health The intersection of health care and will be part of the 2019 election dis- politics is more complicated. Con- course. The extent to which voters versations about “health funding” and “health coverage” are complex make their decisions based on it re-

and varied, and thus hard to sum up mains to be seen. in a sound bite. Politicians and po- Of course, after the visit to the doc- Contributing Writer Shachi Kurl is litical analysts would do well to re- tor, there is also the follow-up, Executive Director of the Angus Reid member that when talking about Institute, a public opinion and research which often includes prescription “health care”, they need to be fo- firm based in Vancouver. medication. When the Institute first cused on “whose health care?”. For looked at the issue of affordabili- aging Canadians, it may well be or- ty of doctor-prescribed drugs four thopedic issues, dementia and end years ago, it found one-fifth of Ca- of life care. For young women it may nadians overall, and 16 per cent of centre on fertility. For parents, the those over the age of 55 were skip- primary concerns will be focused ping doses, splitting pills, not refill- on the health and thriving of their

Policy 43

Canada Has Its Own Diabetes Crisis

Jan Hux importing insulin in bulk—as pend- ing legislation would allow—the risk he recent attention given to goes up substantially. As we said in a health care affordability south recent letter co-signed by a number of T of our border has received in- Canadian health and consumer orga- ternational interest, thanks in part to nizations, the Canadian drug supply the troubling stories of U.S. citizens is not sufficient to meet the demand with Type 1 diabetes coming to Can- of a market 10 times larger. If medi- ada to purchase more affordable insu- cations manufactured for a Canadian lin, a therapy needed to live. It’s hard marketplace are somehow diverted to imagine residing in a country where by demand from south of the border, a person already dealing with the dif- the cost to Canadians could be incal- ficult task of managing a chronic dis- culable. Now is the time for Canada ease like diabetes are also unable to af- to develop a strategy that will prevent ford their prescribed medication. potential drug shortages, rather than Or is it? waiting for this inevitable situation to occur. Despite our reputation for quality health care we live in a country where affects not only medication but test Of course, while Canadians with dia- since 2013 there’s been no strategy to strips, syringes, needles and the lat- betes need assurance that their gov- address one of the most significant est glucose monitoring devices. Those ernment will protect their access to health care challenges of our time— gaps in access lead to suboptimal treat- insulin and other essential medica- the diabetes epidemic. Canadians liv- ment and, in turn, a heavier burden of tions, that reassurance will not be ing with diabetes are feeling the brunt complications such as blindness, am- enough. Addressing isolated issues of it, which is why Diabetes Canada putation and kidney failure. in response to a threatened crisis, as has been urging all governments to in the case of U.S. importation of in- take strong steps to address the epi- he announcement from the sulin, neglects the greater need for a U.S. administration indicat- demic of diabetes—a disease that al- comprehensive approach to address ready affects one in three Canadians ing plans to import Health T this epidemic and the unsustainable directly and is growing at a rate of Canada-approved prescription drugs burden it creates for individuals and 40 per cent per decade. More specif- raises concerns of potential drug short- health care systems. A priority issue ically, we are recommending Diabe- ages on this side of the border and has for all federal election candidates to tes 3600, a nationwide strategy that prompted some much-needed atten- tackle is the need for an integrated brings together metrics, best practic- tion from Canadian policymakers. strategy to address diabetes, from pre- es and continuous improvement ex- The U.S. government’s choice of the pertise through partnership with the vention, through screening to treat- path of least resistance to addressing provinces, territories and municipali- ment and all within a measurement drug prices comes with significant ties to address key needs for people framework that will demonstrate that risk to Canadians with diabetes. At with or at risk of diabetes. ambitious targets are being met. The the local level, the “insulin caravans” collaboratively developed Diabetes Let’s look at what’s happening in Can- threaten to clear out supplies at small 360º framework represents just such ada when it comes to managing diabe- border-town pharmacies. Fortunate- a strategy and Canadians with and at tes. We have significant problems with ly, reports of such supply shortages risk for diabetes deserve no less. affordable access to diabetes medica- have been very limited so far but the tions, devices and services. Variation stakes are high for those with Type 1 Dr. Jan Hux is the President and CEO of in public, private and out-of-pocket diabetes for whom a gap in access of Diabetes Canada. She holds an MD from payments creates a patchwork quilt even a day or two can be life-threat- the University of Toronto and a Masters of coverage across the country that ening. Should dozens of states start in Epidemiology from Harvard.

September/October 2019 44 Book Reviews

tional Post columnist does deliver is a son submits, is not delivering on its meticulous and polished account of First Nations agenda, electoral reform how Trudeau the younger scaled the and balanced budgets—all “third par- political heights and how he’s exer- ty promises” made when the Liberals cised power as Canada’s 23rd prime were a lowly opposition unit. minister. The book is not a pretty portrait, which should come as no hen there were the self-inflict- surprise to regular readers of Ivison’s T ed SNAFUs: the elimination of column. The 306 pages fairly bristle the small-business tax; the SNC-Jody with anecdotes and examples of a Wilson-Raybould-Jane Philpott saga; flawed prime ministry, “a triumph of his Bahamian vacation freebie with symbolism over action.” the Aga Khan; his futile attempt at a trade deal with China; and his un- Ivison’s central thesis is that Trudeau productive $1.5-million jaunt to In- and his team are smug in a view that dia with his family and a trunk full Canada is a more progressive coun- of traditional attire befitting a local try than it really is; that it can be wedding. Still, Ivison is careful to give From a Work ruled from the left-of-centre. In im- the other side. In this case, he quotes ages borrowed from U.S. neo-conser- an assertion from an interview with in Progress to the vative Thomas Sowell, Ivison writes Gerald Butts, Trudeau’s eminence gris, that Trudeau conducts himself as the that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Campaign Trail “anointed”, on a higher moral plain Modi and the government “were out than the unworthy “benighted” to screw us and were throwing tacks John Ivison who do not buy his vision. Ivison under our tires to help Canadian contends that the prime minister’s Conservatives.” Besides, added the Trudeau: The Education of a celebrity, “lifetime of privilege” and Trudeau friend and adviser, “we did impulsive behaviour—factors in his Prime Minister. Toronto, Signal/ 48 meetings and he was dressed in a initial popularity—are the same in- McClelland & Stewart, 2019. suit for 45 of them.” gredients that could propel him from office just as quickly. If there is a disappointment in the nar- Review by Robert Lewis rative, it is the paucity of insider infor- mation about how Trudeau makes his he 2011 The 2011 federal elec- Ivison contends that decisions. Unexplained is what really T tion was a disaster for Michael causes our first Instagram PM to so Ignatieff and his Liberal party. The the prime minister’s consistently compound a crisis with Grits won the fewest seats in their celebrity, ‘lifetime of his own words and actions. To borrow storied history (34, compared to 166 privilege’ and impulsive from a quote once attributed to a frus- for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives trated New York Mets manager Casey and 103 for Jack Layton and the behaviour—factors in his Stengel, “can’t anyone there play this NDP). Ignominiously, and perhaps initial popularity—are the game?” Perhaps, Ivison suggests, the mercifully for him, Ignatieff lost his same ingredients that could reason Trudeau’s performance has seat in the Liberal stronghold of Eto- been so uncertain is that he “had bicoke-Lakeshore. Across town, Bob propel him from office just never managed anything bigger than Rae, the man who should have been as quickly. the Katimavik youth charity.” As for Liberal leader, was experiencing a his early years, that chapter is compe- rollercoaster ride in historic Toronto- tently sculpted mainly from Trudeau’s Centre riding. As the election wound own 2014 autobiography, Common down and the national campaign ran Ground, and the public record, but out of steam, Rae faced probable de- Ivison documents chapter and verse there are no telling revelations. feat. But on election night the tally on the Trudeau government’s fail- Ivison does dispense credit where it is from the advance polls—folks who ure to deliver on promises—“making due, if a tad grudgingly. The Canada had voted earlier—put him over the things happen”—in favour of com- Child Benefit, increased in this pre- top. Campaigns do matter. munications and an unerring ability election season, has been “transfor- Wisely, John Ivison refrains from to get in the way of its own story. mative for lower-income Canadians”, speculation about the outcome of the “The government,” he writes, “has while enhancements to the Canada 2019 election which, today, looks as not lived up to as many of its prom- Pension Plan and Old Age Security unpredictable as any race in recent ises as the majority governments that would bring incomes for retired se- history. What the accomplished Na- preceded it.” Among its failures, Ivi- niors within reach of a minimum

Policy 45 wage. Ivison acknowledges that a in clover”: the economy is growing, by them, especially by politicians’ defence review resulted in substan- unemployment is low, the New Dem- autobiographies. Few of us are cou- tive commitments beyond the recent ocrats under leader Jagmeet Singh are rageous enough to share with the promises of either main party. He also in disarray and Conservative leader world our faults, failings, humili- takes note of other government ac- Andrew Scheer is largely unknown ations and disasters. Never before complishments: the passage of the so- and certainly untested. But after his have I read one that brought tears. called middle-class tax cut, cannabis impressive come-from-behind major- Jagmeet Singh’s brave and candid legislation and the prompt landing of ity victory of 2015, Justin Pierre James account of his having survived and Syrian refugees. Reform of the Senate Trudeau, 47, is now facing the fight then blossomed out of a very tough appointments process also “changed of his political life. In Ivison’s words, childhood is that remarkable. the face of the Senate for the better.” “the Liberals’ prime asset has become In the 1960s, Canadian immigra- their biggest liability.” As the Octo- In fairness to Trudeau, a series of tion was tightly capped by nation ber 21 election looms, it seems Justin events beyond his control forced him of origin and therefore race. Before a will be lucky to emulate his father. In into a sharp course correction. Where merit-based system was introduced, 1972, Trudeau père lost his “Trudeau- once he could count on Liberal gov- there were years when we admitted mania” majority and emerged from ernments across Canada that gov- more than 50,000 Europeans and the election with a two-seat margin. erned 29 million people, Ivison notes fewer than 1000 Asians. Jagmeet That too was a late October election. tellingly that the election of the NDP- Singh’s parents were the first-gener- Justin was 10 months old. Green coalition in B.C. and right- ation beneficiaries of a new vision of leaning governments elsewhere have Robert Lewis, former Ottawa bureau Canada. reduced that number to 1.6 million— chief and later editor of Maclean’s, is As his impressive new biography and accentuated Trudeau’s awkward the author of Power, Prime Ministers makes clear, not all Canadians got the balancing act between a carbon tax and the Press: The Battle for Truth message. Racist taunts and school- and ownership of a pipeline. on Parliament Hill, Dundurn, 2018. yard bullies were part of the lives of nd then came the surprise blow that first generation. Singh offers the A with the election of the “bull best counsel possible that also pre- travelling with his own china shop.” cludes damage to victims: no matter Donald Trump’s challenge to NAFTA how humiliating the insult, defend caused Trudeau to shuffle his cabinet yourself, with your fists if necessary, and focus the government’s energy but do not match hate for hate. on Washington, often at the cost of Singh could have produced just an- other pressing issues. And the U.S. other narrative of the immigrant’s demand that Canada extradite Hua- journey: the tough years of financial wei executive Meng Wanzhou led to struggle, the families forced to live in the retaliatory arrest of two Canadian different cities, the relentless deter- executives in China and an ongoing mination of parents that their chil- crisis that will surely flame during dren excel at education, etc. There this election season. The sad part, as were three obstacles to the credibility Ivison notes, is that “American pre- of such a tale—sexual abuse, racism, eminence meant that Canada was and alcohol. obliged to tack in whatever direction the capricious U.S. captain chose to ingh takes special care to try to ed- sail.” In pursuit of a new NAFTA deal, S ucate a reader oblivious to the Ivison writes, “Trudeau had sacrificed A Rare and tragic history of the Sikh community. his own self-respect.” He focuses especially on his genera- More profoundly, Trump’s battle Courageous tion, which grew up in the aftermath cry—“America First—has fundmen- of the state-orchestrated massacre of tally clouded the outlook of the Autobiography Sikhs following Indira Ghandi’s as- small-l liberal values that animate sassination by her Sikh bodyguards Trudeau and his team, and other Jagmeet Singh in 1984-85, the 1985 Air India bomb- democratic governments. From Rus- ing by radical Sikhs, and the Sikh na- sia to Hungary, from Italy to Brazil Love & Courage: My Story of tionalist movement of that era. and points in between, the very no- Family, Resilience and Overcoming His generation of the Sikh diaspora tions of open borders, multicultur- the Unexpected. Toronto. was unique to Canada; greater in alism and the rule of law have been Simon & Schuster Canada, 2019. number, per capita, than anywhere called into question. Even in Canada, else. Sikh activists willing to advocate we are now confronting issues of hate Review by Robin V. Sears violence were also here—though in speech, the validity of science-based absolute numbers they were a tiny, evidence and social tolerance. aving read too many pre-cam- embittered group. Canada was where For all the challenges, Ivison argues, H paign memoirs to count over their most spectacular crime was the Trudeau government “should be the years, I’m usually underwhelmed planned and carried out.

September/October 2019 46 The murder of thousands of Sikhs, appeared at some events where he This led to abusive behaviour by his those who died under the machine tried to convey his message, one that dad and the near collapse of the Singh guns of the Indian Army—first at the later was encapsulated as “love and family. He does not oversell his role in Golden Temple in Amritsar, Punjab courage,” not recognizing the impact guiding the family through a long set and later across the sub-continent— of sharing a room with those offering of disasters. But his leadership is clear. left an indelible scar on Sikhs every- a more violent vision of a Sikh future. He describes the struggle to help his where. In Canada, where the coun- As a very green young political lead- father to finally win control of his ad- ter-attack was launched in June 1985 er he has grown quickly. He can now diction with restrained emotion. His with the bombing of a Delhi-bound put his community’s suffering with- father’s fight to win his way back to 747 that killed 329 people, the pain in the context of the agonies still was especially acute. No matter how being a doctor, a father and a husband endured by too many indigenous is nonetheless powerful. loudly the community leadership de- Canadians, and other more recently nounced the bombing, it didn’t erase arrived racialized groups. He appears As they emerge from the final meet- the stain in the eyes of many Indo- to be embracing an ambitious mes- ing, having won the long battle to Canadians, and among a large per- sage: “New Democrats’ values, and have his father’s psychiatrist licence centage of Canadians. mine, are a message of inclusion— restored, one can only imagine their The Sikhs have never told the story especially our advocacy for those sense of relief and regret. His father of their denigration and persecution who suffer from racism daily, the says, “Thank you for supporting me well. There has never been a Sikh emis- neglected and those left behind. Our and the family for so long …I’m lucky sary who transcended the community commitment to courage in the face to have any [time] left. I want you to able to transmit to the world a coun- of injustice, and our love for even make the most of yours…go live your tervailing account of what the com- those who attack us, are the Cana- life. I’ll take it from here.” munity has endured. Sikhs were the dian values.’ It is a foundation that largest contingent of non-European makes even some traditional New Liberated from this burden, follow- soldiers in the First World War, with a Democrats uneasy. ing his first celebratory vacation shocking rate of mortality. They were He faces Liberals once again anoint- alone, Jagmeet Singh does. He takes promised, but then cheated of, their ing themselves as the guarantor of up the political torch at the behest of own province in a newly independent those values, despite a shaky record his brother who will not give up his India in 1947. The list of indignities in actually defending them. He faces determination it should be Jagmeet’s they’ve suffered is very long. two conservative parties openly flirt- role. ing with race-whispering. Given his hat one of the world’s first anti- slow start as leader and with poll hat happens next is a fateful caste, anti-hierarchy, anti-patri- T numbers still hovering in the teens, chapter for a leader about to archy, socially and religiously toler- W he risks little with a bold progressive ant religious faiths is today widely enter his first national campaign. For message. condemned as barbaric and terrorist Canada, too—and especially for the millions of racialized Canadians who is a deeply felt hurt. Traditional ‘Sikhi’ he first clue in his autobiography will be watching intently. values and conduct are astonishingly T that this is where his journey liberal, given the rather different con- might lead comes in accounts of We’re accustomed to hearing Ameri- victions of the Hindu and Muslim schoolyard bullying and violence. cans regularly claim, often about faiths they grew up among. From a determination to become some triumph over racist adversity, Jagmeet Singh’s parents, like many tougher and stronger through martial that this “could not have happened survivors, attempted to bury their arts and the ability to inflict pain and anywhere else on earth.” “Except pain, to refuse to be humiliated by suffering on his attackers emerges a maybe in Canada,” one is tempted to the racist taunts and political insults recognition that that journey leads shout. It is, however, probably true hurled at them from the day of the only to anger and bitterness. to say that a second-generation Sikh Air-India crash until today. But like An ironic twist, one that he took could not have risen to the leader- other survivors of systemic persecu- many years to resolve, was that his tion, Sikh parents of their genera- ship of a national political party any- martial arts guru, to whom he was de- where but here. tion, wracked with anger and guilt, voted, was also his sexual abuser. The often passed their pain onto their man who was to give him confidence Campaigns matter, and the poll num- children: with a denial of empathy instead instilled guilt, shame and self- bers are as volatile as we have ever or enforced silence, and sometimes doubt. Singh describes this humili- seen. But where leadership is con- alcohol and abuse. ation with veiled deft strokes only, cerned, character matters most. On Even as a teen, Jagmeet began to leaving a reader to fill in the awful the strength of his autobiography, wrestle with a better way to help his blanks—and to be a little in awe of his Singh has established himself as the community to move on. With his ability to have survived it. Unlike the winner of those stakes already. brothers, he organized discussion privileged childhoods of his competi- and commemoration events. Later as tors, by the time he was sixteen he had Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, a politician, he fought—not entirely endured routine racist harassment, a Principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy successfully—for wider and deeper the enduring pain of sexual abuse and Group, is a former National Director of Canadian understanding. Naively, he his father’s descent into alcoholism. the NDP during the Broadbent years.

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49 49 Avec vous à bord, on est sur la bonne voie

Ensemble, nous menons les Canadiens vers un avenir durable

La voie productive La voie écologique La voie économique La voie collective

Avec un accès Wi-Fi gratuit, Notre destination commune : En avançant ensemble, on En connectant plus de 400 com- des sièges spacieux et des un avenir durable. En choisis- donne un coup de pouce au munautés au Canada, on permet à bornes de rechargement à sant le train, vous contribuez portefeuille des Canadiens. près de 4,8 millions de voyageurs portée de main, vous serez à bâtir un Canada plus vert. de se rapprocher des personnes aussi confortable qu’au bureau. et des endroits qu’ils aiment.

Liaison Nombre Distance Temps Temps Coût du voyage Coût du voyage Économies pour de départs productif non productif en voiture** en train le contribuable par jour en train en voiture* (à partir (voyage en train)*** de seulement)

Ottawa Toronto Jusqu’à 20 450 km 4 h 25 min 4 h 46 min 487 $ 49 $ 438 $

Ottawa Montréal Jusqu’à 12 198 km 1 h 50 min 2 h 21 min 230 $ 37 $ 193 $

Ottawa Québec Jusqu’à 8 482 km 5 h 39 min 4 h 47 min 510 $ 49 $ 461 $

Toronto Montréal Jusqu’à 13 541 km 4 h 49 min 5 h 39 min 583 $ 49 $ 534 $

Les employés du gouvernement du Canada sont admissibles à un rabais de 10 % sur leurs voyages personnels réservés auprès de VIA Rail. Les employés du gouvernement du Canada peuvent profiter de tarifs spéciaux pour leurs voyages d’affaires réservés par l’entremise des Services HRG de voyage partagés. Le rabais ne s’applique ni aux tarifs Évasion ni à la classe Prestige. * Donnée issue d’une application de voyage en date du 22 mars 2019, à 17 h. ** Le coût du voyage en voiture est calculé selon la formule suivante : coût en $ du voyage en voiture (taux de 0,58 $/km établi par le Conseil du trésor pour l’Ontario pour une voiture conduite par un employé du gouvernement X distance parcourue) + frais en $ d’employé gouvernemental (taux horaire moyen d’un employé gouvernemental de 48 $/h selon un salaire de 100 000 $ par année, y compris les avantages sociaux X durée du voyage) = coût total en $ pour le contribuable. *** L’économie pour le contribuable associée aux voyages en train est calculée selon la formule suivante : coût en $ du voyage en voiture – coût en $ du voyage en train = économies en $ pour le contribuable. Les tarifs et les conditions peuvent changer sans préavis. MC Marque de commerce propriété de VIA Rail Canada inc.

Policy September/October 2019

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ABB Ad-POLICY Magazine.indd 1 2019-06-14 10:19 AM An Open Letter to the Prime Minister, the Minister of Finance and the Leader and the Finance Critic for the Conservative Party

The Right Honourable Justin Trudeau, The Honourable Andrew Scheer, P.C., M.P. P.C., M.P. Prime Minister of Canada Leader of the Official Opposition

The Honourable William Morneau, The Honourable Pierre Poilievre, P.C., M.P. P.C., M.P. Minister of Finance Finance Critic for the Conservative Party

Dear Prime Minister Trudeau, Minister Morneau, Honourable Scheer and Honourable Poilievre,

Our proposal to remove the capital gains tax on gifts of private company shares and real estate is very relevant to the upcoming election. This measure will resonate with small business owners who wish to give back to their communities in every riding across Canada. There are hundreds of thousands of small business owners in our country and 110,000 are members of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). Not only would small business owners be grateful, but the millions of Canadians who are served by our hospitals, social service agencies and universities, as well as arts and cultural and religious organizations would also benefit from this increased funding. Additional donations from the private sector United Way Day of Caring would be approximately $200-million per annum every year going forward. This United Way Flickr photo increased funding would come at an important time when all levels of government— federal, provincial and municipal are facing significant fiscal challenges.

The Special Senate Committee on the Charitable Sector issued its report in June 2019 and Section 3 recommended INCENTIVIZING THE DONATION OF REAL ESTATE AND PRIVATE COMPANY SHARES.

We urge both the Liberal and the Conservative parties to include this measure in your election platforms. Walk to Cure Arthritis Arthritis Foundation Flickr photo

From a public policy perspective, this measure would address an inequity in the current Income Tax Act by providing the same tax treatment for donations of shares by owners of small businesses as is currently the case for owners of shares in publicly listed companies. In addition, it would provide Canadian charities with the same opportunity to raise private sector funding on the same basis as is with their U.S. counterparts. Any concern about valuation abuse is addressed by the condition that the donor must sell the asset to an arm’s length party.

Canadian Cancer Society, COPS for Cancer

Thank you for your consideration. We look forward to the upcoming election! RonSombilon Flickr photo

Yours truly, Donald K. Johnson, O.C., LL.D.