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World Problematique World Problematique Hugo Thiemann clarifies the Club of Rome’s role as catalyst in formulating values and defining goals for society. Governments must change from nature, and its global scope. By June to global problems. Thiemann believed their present preoccupation with 1970 at the Club’s meeting in Bern, that the enormous impact of The growth of Gross National Products, if Thiemann said, preliminary goals had Limits of Growth was due to its highly the human species is to survive with­ been set, a survey of methodologies visual and convincingly graphic display out falling into a state of worthless completed, and the statement of the of computer runs. Up till now, books existence. Physicists should be in­ ‘World Problematique’ prepared. But in that field had been mainly semantic duced to move from non-orientated or still the methods seemed vague, and exercises and could not hold the basic research on to projects aimed at it was realised that, for the programme reader's attention like The Limits to meeting the needs of global society. to become more concrete, great in­ Growth. Too many scientists are simply en­ tellectual effort would be required ; Thiemann did point out that there gaged in paper proliferation without a that would need financial resources had been much popular misconception sense of responsibility to society. which the Club of Rome could not over the status of the ‘models’ used, These challenging views were ex­ provide as an informal group. The but he was sure that physicists would pressed by Hugo Thiemann *, Director- Executive Committee now includes find the approach appealing. However, General of Battelle, Geneva, and a E. Pestel, S. Okita, and C.L. Wilson, as he was ready to admit that the model- founder-member of the Club of Rome, well as A. Peccei, A. King and H. Thie­ builder had a significant influence on in an interview with Europhysics News mann, and The Club of Rome is regis­ the results in the choice of how Editor, Alex H. Crawford. tered as an Association in Geneva. variables were to be related. This sub­ The MIT study of the ‘World jectivity necessarily meant that the Problematique', as defined by the Club World Dynamics Problematique was illuminated from of Rome in 1970, and resulting recently one direction only and that there was in The Limits to Growth1 provided a At the Bern meeting, J.W. Forrester still much in the dark for which further good starting-point. The book itself is (MIT) proferred the systems approach studies would be needed. having world-wide repercussions at that he had developed for industrial and urban dynamics. The Club’s Exe­ To gauge the full import of the MIT decision-making level, according to work, Thiemann recommended that Thiemann. cutive Committee travelled to MIT for 10 days the next month to examine the technical people should consult the methodology proposed. Forrester suc­ two-volume report to appear in late The Club of Rome cessfully convinced them that the first 1972 in which the assumptions were Thiemann described how the Club model should have only five para­ fully explained and where the data of Rome was founded in 1968 by Au- meters — relating to population and from which the model constructed relio Peccei, of Fiat, Olivetti and Ital- capital (growth factors) and natural results were revealed. The data had consult (an agency for economic and resources, pollution and land (limiting come mainly from agencies of the engineering organization), as an in­ factors) in a one-year trial. The model United Nations and Thiemann acknow­ formal, multi-national and non-political that Forrester used was described in ledged that their co-operative support group. They had agreed that current his book3. Whilst Thiemann applauded had been most beneficial to the trends in the world techno-economic Forrester’s courage in tackling the project. system were pointing towards a highly- Problematique with such a simple dangerous situation. Peccei, Thiemann model, he made it clear that the Club and Alexander King (Head of the of Rome were all aware of its limi­ Science and Technology Division of tations and considered it as only the OECD) and other members of the Club first step. The underlying, and often of Rome contacted individuals in other subjective, assumptions were to be developed countries (Canada, Japan, explored more deeply and more de­ USA, USSR) and found that they were tailed investigations into the dynamics all aware of the menace ahead. of major sub-systems like population, The Club’s first project on The Pre­ pollution, capital investment, and agri­ dicament of Mankind2 emphasized the culture were to be carried out by an interdependence of variables in the international team under the leader­ techno-economic system, its dynamic ship of Dennis L. Meadows. * Hugo Thiemann is an Individual Ordi­ The Limits to Growth nary Member of EPS. Battelle, Geneva, is For any book on techno-economics an Associate Member and provides many A stabilized world model as projected in The services to the Society, as well as making to be published in 10 languages within Limits to Growth. In 1975 the birth rate is reduced a significant contribution to the accom­ 10 months is a formidable achievement to two per family. Industrial capital investment modation of the Main Secretariat. — a credit to its particular relevance reduced, pollution suppressed. 4 Club of Rome as catalyst was too much non-orientated research. A new Journal from The Club of Rome, Thiemann ex­ However, other countries, like the plained, looked upon the work it had USSR, still put efforts into increasing North-Holland sponsored at MIT as a catalytic agent. the numbers of scientific personnel. The world-wide response to The Limits But, in those countries where the ex­ to Growth was encouraging. Already penditure on physics was high enough the Japanese government, perhaps in relation to GNP, more emphasis on project research was needed. Research because of the particular relevance to their over-populated, under-resourced Thiemann urged that physicists country, had started more detailed should not look upon themselves as studies. The Club of Rome hoped that instruments in the research machinery Policy the emphasis by governments would of their laboratories. They should turn from 'growth' to ‘progress towards address themselves to the essential A journal devoted to research policy, stability’, which necessarily meant problems that faced the world today. research management and planning. controlled growth in future. Editors: As the Director-General of Battelle Deep changes C. FREEMAN, T.C. SINCLAIR, in Geneva, Thiemann believed that The Club of Rome had the general R. COENEN, H. KRAUCH the consultations that the Club of objective of helping to re-think and re­ Rome had had with decision-makers Industrial Editors : formulate values and to define broad J.G.D. CARPENTER, K.-H. STANDKE throughout the world had been an goals for society, and Thiemann saw additional element in constructing his that their initial studies heralded deep In industrial research nowadays the main research policy. He considered that changes. problem is not so much to manage research, political, and even industrial research, but how to determine its appropriate volume As the population continued to grow, and scope, how to bring it in line with the timescales were not sufficiently long­ there would be more and more need long-term planning of the company and how term. It was essential that today’s to integrate it with other operations, in for individual discipline. Competition government research policy, the key question research must be Influenced by the would be reduced as a result, and res­ is how to determine priorities. The new knowledge that in 20-30 years the trictions would increase. Companies Journal, RESEARCH POLICY, deals with both world population could well have would no longer emphasize growth as these problems. doubled. Whilst research policy was The journal publishes papers both by those the sole criterion of success. Govern­ involved in "science policy" decisions and not an overt parameter in the MIT ments would recognize that other ele­ by independent analysts and critics, which models, only the applications of ad­ results in a combination of theoretical writing ments besides GNP growth were and case studies. RESEARCH POLICY con­ vanced research could bring about the essential for well-being and a con­ centrates on European problems and European changes in parameters that would set structive approach to the future would R & D experience. The Editors belong to two the system on a course for stability. leading European academic groups involved arise. in full-time studies of research policy : the That many institutions were con­ Jeidelberg Studiengruppe fur Systemforschung cerned to predict the future in specific and the University of Sussex Policy Research areas was a sign of the unrest that the References Unit. Club of Rome had also detected. Many 1 MEADOWS, D.H., MEADOWS, D.L., RAN- of these institutions were influenced DERS, J., and BEHRENS, W.W., The CONTENTS : by the Club’s activities — mainly due Limits to Growth (Universe Books, New Volume 1, Number 1 : to the contribution by Peccei, as the York, and Earth Island, London) 1972. H. G. B. CASIMIR, Industries and academic Club’s ’engine’. freedom. P. M. S. JONES, Lessons from the There are now translations available of objective appraisal of programmes at the The Limits to Growth : national level-implications of criteria and policy, H. KRAUCH, Priorities for research Physicists and the World and technological development. C. SINCLAIR, Problematique Dutch : The incorporation of health and welfare risks MEADOWS D., Rapport van de Club van into technological forecasting. L. CZAYKA, The Club of Rome’s aims to formul­ Rome ‘De grenzen aan de groei' (Uitge- The importance of graph theory in research ate new values and to define goals for planning.
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