ALERT LEVEL: SENEGAL NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH WARNING APRIL 2006 EMERGENCY Summary and implications The month of April signals the beginning of the lean period throughout most of the northern part of the country and with it a cyclical deterioration in the living conditions of poor and middle-income households. The combined effects of insufficient family food reserves (depending on the type of household and region in question), and high grain prices are forcing poor and middle-income households to search for seasonal employment in urban areas and sell straw and firewood. Seasonal calendar Current Hazard Summary Supplies of locally grown grain crops are still low and, in some cases, negligible. Prevailing market prices for local grain crops are relatively high (120-150 CFAF/kg) and prices for in- shell groundnuts are relatively low (120-130 CFAF/kg) compared with the official price (150 CFAF/kg). Livestock-raising areas are beginning to report poor pasture and water availability. Food security conditions A joint mission organized by FEWS NET, the WFP and the Mauritanian and Senegalese Food Security Commissions toured the country’s Groundnut Basin and the Senegal River Valley area on both sides of the river over the period from April 6th through April 19th to monitor developments in the food security situation and the status of cross-border trade. Varying sources present different aspects of the food security situation in Senegal’s Groundnut Basin. Findings from the heads of comprehensive rural development centers (CERP) in a number of districts in the Kaolack region (Ndoffane, Paoskoto), as well as interested stakeholders (farmers, traders) interviewed in rural marketplaces visited by the mission (Diakhao, Porokhane, Passy, Gossas), and FEWS NET research present the situation as follows: Supplies are low and, in some cases, negligible in the case of certain crops (sorghum, maize), while supplies of other crops (souna millet, groundnuts) are fair at best. Prevailing prices for local grain crops are relatively high « 120-150 CFAF/kg » and prices for in-shell groundnuts are relatively low « 120-130 CFAF/kg » compared with the official price (150 CFAF/kg). Trade between the Groundnut Basin and large cities (millet, groundnuts) and between crop-producing areas within the Groundnut Basin (millet, maize, groundnuts, livestock) is flowing relatively smoothly. There is less trade between the Groundnut Basin and northern Senegal and trade volumes are trending downwards. FEWS NET/Senegal Tel : +221 820 18 60 Address: BP29955 Aéroport FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Fax : + 221 820 18 65 L.S.Senghor Code Postal 14542 www.fews.net E-mail: [email protected] Dakar Senegal SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE APRIL 2006 Current conditions can be traced back to this year’s poor official groundnut marketing season. The late start in the start-up of the groundnut season and small watermelon harvests, which serve as a source of household income, prompted a massive premature draw-down of millet reserves, with households counting on the sale of groundnut crops to rebuild them in due course. However, the long wait, the risk of a depreciation in the value of groundnut crops and more urgent family needs, such as social and religious events, forced households to dispose of their groundnut crops on the black market at distress prices. The market is beginning to become tight and the looming lean period could be a difficult one for low or middle-income farm families. Paradoxically, supplies at livestock markets are rather plentiful and, yet, livestock prices are still medium to high. The most obvious explanation for this anomaly is the feast celebrating the birth of the Prophet Mohammed, but a more plausible explanation points to strategizing on the part of livestock producers to make up for losses engendered by the poor groundnut marketing season. Only small areas have been planted in with flood-recession crops in the Ile à Morphil area of the Senegal River Valley. Worse yet, sorghum crops were attacked in two waves: ¾ crop predators destroyed young shoots during the planting stage, hampering crop growth and development from the beginning; ¾ grain-eating birds attacked crops during the seeding and maturation stages, permanently damaging ensuing harvests. As a result, sorghum harvests throughout the area were poor and, in some cases, nil. In contrast, there were good harvests of off-season okra, sweet potato, onion and tomato crops. However, given the remoteness of this area, the marketing of these crops is not an especially lucrative undertaking and they are being sold at rock-bottom prices. Okra, for example, is selling for 75 - 100 CFAF/kg, with sweet potatoes going for between 50 and 100 CFAF/kg. The main type of grain consumed by residents in this area is imported broken rice, which sells for 225 CFAF/kg. Supplies of locally grown grain (millet, sorghum and maize) in the corridor between Ross Béthio (in the Saint- Louis region) and Ourossogui (in the Matam region) are tight. Normal trade flows from high-production areas such as Kaolack have not yet commenced. Only locally grown rice is available in sufficient quantities. Current prices for local grain crops are high, at 175-185 CFAF in Podor department and 235-285 CFAF in Matam department. In contrast, we found plentiful supplies of sweet potatoes and tomatoes, which are going for low prices. Livestock prices are extremely high and supplies are tight. In the face of these conditions, the current coping strategies of households in the country’s Groundnut Basin call for one-off sales of small quantities of grain to meet urgent needs, the selling of firewood and straw and rural-urban migration. Residents are still able to get hold of enough grain for their daily meals, but the make-up of food access pyramids has shifted. The disruption of the groundnut marketing season meant a loss of earnings for farm families. In a normal year, crop production covers 100% of household consumption needs, with the surplus invested in livestock. Right now, crop production meets only 70% of consumption needs, with the deficit covered by borrowing, which is playing an increasingly larger role in household coping strategies, as the importance of paid farm work and migration diminishes. Unfavorable grazing and watering conditions in livestock-raising areas are prompting herders to step up survival strategies centered around sale of livestock, which is undermining their main source of income. 2 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE APRIL 2006 Markets Market supplies of locally Table 1: Grain imports (in MT) grown grain crops (millet, December January February March Products Total sorghum and maize) are 2005 2006 2006 2006 still tight, but supplies of Rice 50,500.0 11,979.0 27,098.3 4,516.6 94,093.9 imported rice are ample Wheat 35,642.6 13,000.3 30,157.8 30,124.6 108,925.3 enough to enable Wheat semolina 1,380.8 2,564.7 1,084.0 404.0 5,433.5 households to cope with Wheat flour 241.0 466.9 707.9 current coarse grain Maize 13,733.0 13,524.0 27,257.0 shortages. As was the Corn starch 57.5 57.0 case last month, markets Total 87,523.4 27,544.0 72,371.6 49,093.1 236,417.6 in the Louga and Saint- Source: Port office, Crop Protection Service (DPV) Louis regions are reporting the most plentiful supplies. Figure 1: Trends in average retail prices for millet in regional Commercial imports since December of last capitals (as of April 28th) year total more than 235,000 metric tons Average 2001-05 Apr-05 Mar-06 Apr-06 and consist mainly of wheat (108,000 MT) 250 and rice (94,000 MT). Rice imports plunged between February and March, while imports of maize resumed in the month of February 200 ) (Table 1). g A/k CF 150 F ( t Produce markets were extremely tight lle Mi of throughout the month of April. Market prices e c i r 100 P stayed high, showing little change from the il a t previous month, while product availability Re tightened between March and April. These tight market conditions are attributable to: 50 • problems created by the poor official 0 groundnut marketing season; DAKAR DIOURBEL FATICK KAOLACK KOLDA LOUGA ST.LOUIS TAMBA THIES ZIGUINCHOR • a steadily mounting demand from urban Source: CSA/SIM /FEWS NET consumers in the face of the small volume of grain transfers from rural Figure 2: Trends in average retail prices for millet on rural areas. markets (as of April 28th) Apr-05 Mar-06 Apr-06 Average 2001-05 After holding relatively steady for months, 275 prices for locally grown grain crops rose another 3.6% on average, except in Saint- 250 Louis where prices were reportedly down by 225 ) ) 200 5.7% (Figure 1). g /k F A 175 F In general, prices in April ran above the C F ( 150 average for 2001-2005, except in Fatick and et mill Saint-Louis where prices have come down. f 125 o ice Prices in Kolda were up by as much as r 100 il p 24.8%. ta e R 75 Price trends in rural markets were somewhat 50 different. Prices in Bambey, Gouille Mbeuth 25 and Porokhane continued to climb, while 0 prices in Mpal and Passy decreased by 5 BAMBEY GOUILLE MBEUTH MPAL OUROSSOGUI PASSY POROKHANE CFAF (or 2.8%) and 3 CFAF from last Source: CSA/SIM /FEWS NET month (Figure 2), respectively. 3 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE APRIL 2006 Prices in northern markets (Ourossogui, Mpal and Gouille Mbeuth), which are all in areas with structural production deficits, are running above-average when compared to 2005.