POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA cap verde 0 The Gambia- Guln Biss Mauritius NOTE: This map, which has been prepared solely for the convenience of readers, does not purport to express political boundaries or relationships. The scale is a composite of several forms of projection. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Gilles Pison, Kenneth H. Hill, Barney Cohen, and Karen A. Foote. Editors Working Group on Senegal Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa Committee on Population Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1995 NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private. nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the further- ance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's pur- poses of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accor- dance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engi- neering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 95-68873 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05280-7 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitu- tion Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, D.C. 20418. Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). B546 Copyright 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America WORKING GROUP ON SENEGAL GILLES PISON (Chair), Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France ANOUCH CHAHNAZARIAN,~Johns Hopkins University and Institut Frangais de Recherche Scientifique pour le Dtveloppement en Cooperation (ORSTOM), Dakar, Senegal PHILIPPE HUGON, Universite de Paris X, Paris, France CHEIKH MBACKE, Rockefeller Foundation, Nairobi, Kenya AWA THIONGANE, Direction de la PrCvision et de la Statistique, Dakar, Senegal BARNEY COHEN, Stajf Officer PATRICIA A. DeFRISCO, Senior Project Assistant KAREN A. FOOTE, Staff Officer JOAN MONTGOMERY HALFORD, Senior Project Assistant* PAULA J. MELVILLE, Senior Project Assistant** SUSAN L. SHUTTLEWORTH, Senior Project Assistant*** t deceased December 1993 * through July 1992 ** through April 1994 ***through April 1995 PANEL ON THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA KENNETH H. HILL (Chair), Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University ADERANTI ADEPOJU, Institut de DCveloppement Economique et de la Planification (IDEP), Dakar, Senegal JANE T. BERTRAND, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University WILLIAM BRASS, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, England DOUGLAS C. EWBANK, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania PHILIPPE FARGUES, Centre d'Etudes et de Documentation Economique, Sociale et Juridique (CEDEJ), Cairo, Egypt RON J. LESTHAEGHE, Faculteit van de Economische, Sociale en Politieke Wetenschappen, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium PATRICK 0. OHADIKE, Regional Institute for Population Studies (RIPS), Accra, Ghana ANNE R. PEBLEY, RAND, Santa Monica, California DANIEL M. SALA-DIAKANDA, Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia COMMITTEE ON POPULATION RONALD D. LEE (Chair),Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE, Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University JOSE-LUIS BOBADILLA, World Bank, Washington, D.C. JOHN BONGAARTS, The Population Council, New York JOHN B. CASTERLINE, The Population Council, New York LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND, Santa Monica, California MARK R. MONTGOMERY, The Population Council, New York ROBERT A. MOFFITT, Department of Economics, Brown University ANNE R. PEBLEY, RAND, Santa Monica, California RONALD R. RINDFUSS, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill JAMES P. SMITH, RAND, Santa Monica, California BETH J. SOLDO, Department of Demography, Georgetown University MARTA TIENDA, Population Research Center, University of Chicago AMY 0. TSUI, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill JOHN G. HAAGA, Director BARNEY COHEN, Research Associate PATRICIA A. DeFRISCO, Senior Project Assistant KAREN A. FOOTE, Program Officer JOEL A. ROSENQUIST, Project Assistant JOYCE E. WALZ, Administrative Associate vii his report is dedicated to the T memory of Anouch Chahnazarian, Ph.D., who died on December 26,1993, at the tragically early age of 40, cut- ting short a distinguished career. Dr. Chahnazarian was an active member of the Working Group on Senegal until her final illness. Her enthusiasm, en- ergy, and intellectual rigor combined to make an enormous contribution to the preparation of this report. Dr. Chahnazarian grew up in Bel- gium, obtaining a B.A. in social sci- ences from the Free University of Brussels and a master's degree in demography from the Catholic University of Louvain. She then came to the United States to pursue her graduate training, obtaining a Ph.D. in sociology/ demography from Princeton University in 1986. From Princeton, Dr. Chahnazarian joined the Department of Popula- tion Dynamics at The Johns Hopkins University, first as a research asso- ciate, and then in 1988, as an assistant professor. Her initial work at Johns Hopkins consisted largely of responsibility for all aspects of a child health survey in Haiti, but on joining the faculty, she took on teaching responsibilities and acquired a devoted group of doctoral advisees. While at Princeton, she had been involved in a child mortality study in Zaire, and she returned there in 1989 to design and conduct a follow-up survey of the same area. Her lifelong interest in Africa, where she had lived as a child, led her to take a leave of absence from Johns Hopkins in 1991 to join the Institut Franqais de Recherche Scientifique pour le Dtveloppement en Cooptration (ORSTOM), working as the demographer for the popula- tion observatory in Niakhar, Senegal. She concentrated her work on systematizing the data collection, processing, and analysis procedures for the observatory, to provide a sound basis for future use of the data for research purposes. Tragically, she was unable herself to take advantage of the important improvements she introduced. She was taken ill in March 1993. Dr. Chahnazarian's contribution to this report, both intellectual and inspirational, was enormous. She is sorely missed by her colleagues and friends on this working group, the Panel on Population Dynamics of Sub- Saharan Africa, the committee on Population, and throughout the demo- graphic community. Preface This report is last in a series of studies carried out under the auspices of the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa of the Na- tional Research Council's Committee