ALERT LEVEL: SENEGAL NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH WARNING AUGUST 2006 EMERGENCY Summary After little rainfall activity in and around the end of July, the rains have picked up in most parts of the country. Matam Department reported its first useful rainfall, enabling farmers to begin wet-planting crops. Conditions in the Tambacounda and Kolda regions have visibly improved. The Thiès region and the eastern part of the country are still reporting rainfall deficits. An examination of stream flow conditions in early August showed flood waves on most waterways around the country. Market inventories of locally grown coarse grain crops (souna millet, maize and sorghum) are steadily diminishing in all parts of the country and are at their lowest levels since the beginning of the year. Seasonal calendar DRY SEASON: Seasonal Migration by Livestock, Vegetable Growing Season, Off-Season Crops, Start of the 2006-2007 Growing Season Flood-Recession Crops, Mass Rural-Urban Migration –Weeding and Clean-Up December 05 January 06 February 06 March 06 April 06 May 06 June 06 July 06 August 06 September 06 October 06 November 06 Harvest Land Preparation Planting Harvest Current hazards summary • Even with the recent pick-up in the rains in the Tambacounda and Kolda regions, reported dry spells are going to have an adverse effect on this season’s cotton crops. • Trends in retail prices for locally grown grain crops are extremely mixed, with prices moving downward in the South, prices rising in the North and prices holding steady in the central part of the country. • With the pick-up in the rains, the condition of pasturelands should improve over the next few weeks, providing the entire animal population with a source of food. Food security conditions Midway into the growing season, the rural population continues to experience food security problems, pending the first harvests sometime in the second half of September. Market inventories of locally grown coarse grain crops (souna millet, maize and sorghum) are steadily diminishing in all parts of the country and are at their lowest level since the beginning of the year. Right now, imported rice is accounting for an increasingly large share of the diet of rural residents. In general, the emergent vegetative growth in livestock-raising areas is of use only to small livestock animals. There is no improvement in the incomes of pastoral households because milk production is still limited and prices for animals are still low in the face of the relatively poor condition of livestock. FEWS NET/Senegal Tel : +221 820 18 60 Address: BP29955 Aéroport FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Fax : + 221 820 18 65 L.S.Senghor Code Postal 14542 www.fews.net E-mail: [email protected] Dakar Senegal SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE AUGUST 2006 The lean period in the Kolda and Tambacounda regions, where the planting season got off to somewhat of a late start, could continue past the second half of September, when crops begin to be harvested in a normal year. Progress of the 2006-2007 growing season After little rainfall activity in and around the end of July, the rains have picked up in most parts of the country. There has been good rainfall in Matam, in the North, where the rainy season got off to a rough start, which should allow farmers to continue to actively plant crops. Cumulative rainfall amounts since the beginning of August at other rainfall gauging stations in the North are anywhere from 18.7 mm (at Linguère) to 109.5 mm (at Diourbel). With these rainfall amounts, some stations in the far North were able to maintain good soil water reserves and those in the Central part of the country were able to make up water deficits caused by last month’s limited rainfall. Rainfall amounts in the South have been satisfactory, ranging from 49.5 mm in Bakel to 179.8 mm at Cap Skiring. Conditions in the Tambacounda and Kolda regions have visibly improved after a protracted dry spell in July. The large amounts of rainfall in the first half of August helped to replenish soil water reserves and to promote good crop growth and development. Season-long cumulative rainfall totals as of August 13 range from over 700 mm in Ziguinchor down to 88 mm in Dakar, with Fatick, Mbour and Ziguinchor in the far North still showing rainfall surpluses and Thiès and the eastern part of the country still reporting rainfall deficits. Stream flow conditions A look at stream flow conditions in early August showed flood waves on waterways around the country, except at the Kidira station on the Falémé. Flow rates at the Bakel station on the Senegal River, the Kidira station on the Falémé and the Kédougou station on the Gambia River during the first dekad of August of this year were at a ten-year low. The level of the Senegal River is rising at all gauging stations. However, gauge heights are down from the same time last year. The flood wave observed on the Falémé during the last dekad of July has since receded. A large flood wave was observed at the Kédougou station on the Gambia River at the end of the first dekad of this month, where the level of the river was at 347 cm, which is comparable to the figure for the same time last year. The level of the Casamance River at the Kolda station is rising. The maximum daily mean gauge height for the first dekad of August of this year was 196 cm, recorded on August 10th, compared with 204 cm on August 5th of last year. Impact of rainfall on crops Figure 1. Crop Water Requirement Satisfaction Index for the 1st dekad of August Conditions in the South (Ziguinchor and Kolda) are extremely mixed. Water supplies in the Ziguinchor region are more than adequate (Figure 1), where farming activities continue. However, water levels in rice paddies are still low. Large water deficits and numerous pockets of drought in the Kolda region have prevented some farmers from planting their crops on time, according to crop calendars, particularly in the case of cotton crops. Planting rates in the East (in the Tambacounda region), which vary from 60 to 75 percent, are well below-normal and down sharply from last year, making for a shorter than usual growing season. On the whole, the progress of crop growth and Source: NOAA/USGS; Graphic by FEWS NET 2 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE AUGUST 2006 development in the Kaolack and Fatick regions is satisfactory. However, there are reports of crops showing signs of temporary wilting in a few water-short areas in the Fatick region. Farmers in the North and the North-Central region have just about finished planting their crops, while farmers in Matam first started wet-planting crops with the rains on August 1. Plant health conditions Plant health conditions are relatively stable. However, there are reports of hatchings of grasshopper larvae, consisting mostly of Senegalese grasshoppers (Oedaleus senegalensis), in small pockets throughout parts of the Fatick, Kaolack, Tambacounda and Diourbel regions. Grasshopper densities are still reportedly low (1 to 5 insects per square meter). There are also reports of widespread high-density (25 insects under trees and tufts of grass) millipede infestations of grain and groundnut crops in the Thiès region and Tambacounda department (in the rural communities of Kouthiaba and Koussanar), making it necessary to replant crops in these areas. Conditions in livestock-raising areas Except for Bakel and Tambacounda departments, the only well-developed pasture is in the southern part of the country, with other areas of the country reporting only sparse vegetation. However, the pick-up in the rains since the beginning of August should help improve the condition of pasturelands for the benefit of the entire animal population. In general, animals are being watered at seasonal lakes and ponds, as well as at water management or engineering works. However, the levels of these temporary watering holes vary from one part of the country to another. Water levels are high in the Kédougou area and are average elsewhere in the country. There are still reports of seasonal migratory movements by livestock in certain parts of the country, particularly in the Louga area, but in the opposite direction, with animals heading back to rainy season encampments, which is their normal pattern of migration at this time of year. Livestock markets are still reporting an abundance of slaughter animals. However, their condition is deteriorating in certain localized areas due to the sparse vegetation. Markets Trading in locally grown grain crops is down sharply, which is normal during the lean period. The tightening of supplies and resulting slowdown in business have driven up retail prices for millet and maize on a number of rural markets. Thus, price trends between July and August of this year vary from one market to another (Figure 2), with prices up in Diourbel (by 15 CFAF/kg) and Thiès (by 12 CFAF/kg), prices falling in Kolda and Ziguinchor in the early part of August and very little movement in market prices in Dakar, Fatick, Kaolack and Tambacounda. Retail/consumer prices on urban markets have been fluctuating between 150 and 180 CFAF/kg. However, this price stability on urban markets cannot last. In fact, reported price hikes in major grain-producing areas could affect other markets around the country as the growing season continues, particularly those in urban population centers. There has been no improvement in grain supplies from last month. The drop-off in transfers of locally grown grain crops on markets around the country for the past several months shows no sign of ending.