ALERT LEVEL: NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH AUGUST 2006 WARNING EMERGENCY

Summary

After little rainfall activity in and around the end of July, the rains have picked up in most parts of the country. reported its first useful rainfall, enabling farmers to begin wet-planting crops. Conditions in the and regions have visibly improved. The Thiès region and the eastern part of the country are still reporting rainfall deficits.

An examination of stream flow conditions in early August showed flood waves on most waterways around the country.

Market inventories of locally grown coarse grain crops (souna millet, maize and sorghum) are steadily diminishing in all parts of the country and are at their lowest levels since the beginning of the year.

Seasonal calendar

DRY SEASON: Seasonal Migration by Livestock, Vegetable Growing Season, Off-Season Crops, Start of the 2006-2007 Growing Season Flood-Recession Crops, Mass Rural-Urban Migration –Weeding and Clean-Up

December 05 January 06 February 06 March 06 April 06 May 06 June 06 July 06 August 06 September 06 October 06 November 06

Harvest Land Preparation Planting Harvest

Current hazards summary

• Even with the recent pick-up in the rains in the Tambacounda and Kolda regions, reported dry spells are going to have an adverse effect on this season’s cotton crops. • Trends in retail prices for locally grown grain crops are extremely mixed, with prices moving downward in the South, prices rising in the North and prices holding steady in the central part of the country. • With the pick-up in the rains, the condition of pasturelands should improve over the next few weeks, providing the entire animal population with a source of food.

Food security conditions

Midway into the growing season, the rural population continues to experience food security problems, pending the first harvests sometime in the second half of September.

Market inventories of locally grown coarse grain crops (souna millet, maize and sorghum) are steadily diminishing in all parts of the country and are at their lowest level since the beginning of the year. Right now, imported rice is accounting for an increasingly large share of the diet of rural residents.

In general, the emergent vegetative growth in livestock-raising areas is of use only to small livestock animals. There is no improvement in the incomes of pastoral households because milk production is still limited and prices for animals are still low in the face of the relatively poor condition of livestock.

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SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE AUGUST 2006

The lean period in the Kolda and Tambacounda regions, where the planting season got off to somewhat of a late start, could continue past the second half of September, when crops begin to be harvested in a normal year.

Progress of the 2006-2007 growing season

After little rainfall activity in and around the end of July, the rains have picked up in most parts of the country. There has been good rainfall in Matam, in the North, where the rainy season got off to a rough start, which should allow farmers to continue to actively plant crops. Cumulative rainfall amounts since the beginning of August at other rainfall gauging stations in the North are anywhere from 18.7 mm (at Linguère) to 109.5 mm (at Diourbel). With these rainfall amounts, some stations in the far North were able to maintain good soil water reserves and those in the Central part of the country were able to make up water deficits caused by last month’s limited rainfall.

Rainfall amounts in the South have been satisfactory, ranging from 49.5 mm in Bakel to 179.8 mm at Cap Skiring. Conditions in the Tambacounda and Kolda regions have visibly improved after a protracted dry spell in July. The large amounts of rainfall in the first half of August helped to replenish soil water reserves and to promote good crop growth and development.

Season-long cumulative rainfall totals as of August 13 range from over 700 mm in down to 88 mm in Dakar, with , Mbour and Ziguinchor in the far North still showing rainfall surpluses and Thiès and the eastern part of the country still reporting rainfall deficits.

Stream flow conditions

A look at stream flow conditions in early August showed flood waves on waterways around the country, except at the station on the Falémé. Flow rates at the Bakel station on the Senegal River, the Kidira station on the Falémé and the Kédougou station on River during the first dekad of August of this year were at a ten-year low.

The level of the Senegal River is rising at all gauging stations. However, gauge heights are down from the same time last year. The flood wave observed on the Falémé during the last dekad of July has since receded. A large flood wave was observed at the Kédougou station on the Gambia River at the end of the first dekad of this month, where the level of the river was at 347 cm, which is comparable to the figure for the same time last year. The level of the River at the Kolda station is rising. The maximum daily mean gauge height for the first dekad of August of this year was 196 cm, recorded on August 10th, compared with 204 cm on August 5th of last year.

Impact of rainfall on crops Figure 1. Crop Water Requirement Satisfaction Index for the 1st dekad of August Conditions in the South (Ziguinchor and Kolda) are extremely mixed. Water supplies in the are more than adequate (Figure 1), where farming activities continue. However, water levels in rice paddies are still low.

Large water deficits and numerous pockets of drought in the have prevented some farmers from planting their crops on time, according to crop calendars, particularly in the case of cotton crops.

Planting rates in the East (in the ), which vary from 60 to 75 percent, are well below-normal and down sharply from last year, making for a shorter than usual growing season.

On the whole, the progress of crop growth and Source: NOAA/USGS; Graphic by FEWS NET 2 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE AUGUST 2006 development in the Kaolack and Fatick regions is satisfactory. However, there are reports of crops showing signs of temporary wilting in a few water-short areas in the .

Farmers in the North and the North-Central region have just about finished planting their crops, while farmers in Matam first started wet-planting crops with the rains on August 1.

Plant health conditions

Plant health conditions are relatively stable. However, there are reports of hatchings of grasshopper larvae, consisting mostly of Senegalese grasshoppers (Oedaleus senegalensis), in small pockets throughout parts of the Fatick, Kaolack, Tambacounda and Diourbel regions. Grasshopper densities are still reportedly low (1 to 5 insects per square meter).

There are also reports of widespread high-density (25 insects under trees and tufts of grass) millipede infestations of grain and groundnut crops in the Thiès region and (in the rural communities of Kouthiaba and Koussanar), making it necessary to replant crops in these areas.

Conditions in livestock-raising areas

Except for Bakel and Tambacounda departments, the only well-developed pasture is in the southern part of the country, with other areas of the country reporting only sparse vegetation. However, the pick-up in the rains since the beginning of August should help improve the condition of pasturelands for the benefit of the entire animal population.

In general, animals are being watered at seasonal lakes and ponds, as well as at water management or engineering works. However, the levels of these temporary watering holes vary from one part of the country to another. Water levels are high in the Kédougou area and are average elsewhere in the country.

There are still reports of seasonal migratory movements by livestock in certain parts of the country, particularly in the Louga area, but in the opposite direction, with animals heading back to rainy season encampments, which is their normal pattern of migration at this time of year.

Livestock markets are still reporting an abundance of slaughter animals. However, their condition is deteriorating in certain localized areas due to the sparse vegetation.

Markets

Trading in locally grown grain crops is down sharply, which is normal during the lean period. The tightening of supplies and resulting slowdown in business have driven up retail prices for millet and maize on a number of rural markets. Thus, price trends between July and August of this year vary from one market to another (Figure 2), with prices up in Diourbel (by 15 CFAF/kg) and Thiès (by 12 CFAF/kg), prices falling in Kolda and Ziguinchor in the early part of August and very little movement in market prices in Dakar, Fatick, Kaolack and Tambacounda.

Retail/consumer prices on urban markets have been fluctuating between 150 and 180 CFAF/kg. However, this price stability on urban markets cannot last. In fact, reported price hikes in major grain-producing areas could affect other markets around the country as the growing season continues, particularly those in urban population centers.

There has been no improvement in grain supplies from last month. The drop-off in transfers of locally grown grain crops on markets around the country for the past several months shows no sign of ending. However, this decline in local grain availability is offset by the large volume of imported rice found on weekly farmers’ markets in even the most remote areas of the country, reflecting the country’s ample supply of imported rice in the midst of the lean period.

3 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE AUGUST 2006

In general, price levels on urban markets Figure 2. Trends in average retail prices for millet in regional are still running nearly 20 percent below capitals (as of August 10, 2006) the average for 2001-05. 250 2005 2006 AVERAGE 2001-2005 225 Prices on rural markets are up from last month, except in Bambey, where prices 200 are reportedly down by 15 CFAF/kg. 175 Prices in Ourossogui are up 37 CFAF/kg 150 from July and on par with August prices 125 CFAF/kg for last year (Figure 3). 100

75 August prices on rural markets are running above the average for 2001- 50 2005 in all areas with the exception of 25 , where they are inching 0 e e y y uly uly uly ne une J Aug July Aug une J Aug July Aug une J Aug Jul Aug une July Aug Jul Aug downwards. Prices in Ourossogui are up J Jun J Jun J Ju J June Dakar Diourbel Kaolack Louga ST-Louis Tambacounda Thiès Ziguinchor by over 21 percent. Source of Data: CSA (Food Security Commission)/SIM (Market Information System); Graphic by FEWS NET The lean period in the Kolda and Tambacounda regions, where the Figure 3. Trends in average retail prices for millet on rural planting season got off to somewhat of a markets (as of August 10, 2006) late start, could drag on, in contrast to AVERAGE 2001-2005 AUGUST 2005 JULY 2006 AUGUST 2006 conditions in a normal year when the first crops are brought in sometime in the 250 225 second half of September. 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 Average Retail Price of Millet (F/kg) 25 0 GOUILLE BAMBEY MPAL OUROSSOGUI POROKHANE BIGNONA MBEUTH AVERAGE 2001-2005 162 171 176 206 143 180 AUGUST 2005 215 215 232 250 183 220 JULY 2006 175 173 180 213 137 176 AUGUST 2006 160 180 185 250 140 175 Source of Data: CSA (Food Security Commission)/SIM (Market Information System); Graphic by FEWS NET

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