Coastal erosion risks in the BSR countries Coastal floods Coastal erosion Europe Vulnerabilities - European coasts All European coastal states are to some extent affected by coastal erosion. About twenty thousand kilometres of coasts, corresponding to 20% face serious impacts in 2004. Most of the impact zones (15,100 km) are actively retreating, some of them in spite of coastal protection works (2,900 km). In addition, another 4,700 km have become artificially stabilised (1). The risk of coastal flooding due to the undermining of coastal dunes and sea defences potentially affects several thousands of square kilometres and millions of people. Over the past 50 years, the population living in European coastal municipalities has more than doubled to reach 70 millions inhabitants in 2001 and the total value of economic assets located within 500 meters from the coastline has multiplied to an estimated 500-1000 billion Euros in 2000 (1). The cost of coastal erosion (coastline protection against the risk of erosion and flooding) has been estimated to average 5,400 million euro per year between 1990 and 2020 (2). Coastal erosion results in three different types of impacts (or risks): Loss of land with economical value Destruction of natural sea defences (usually a dune system) as a result of storm events, which may result in flooding of the hinterland. Undermining of artificial sea defences as a result of chronic sediment shortage Human factors Coastal erosion is influenced by several human factors, including (1): Coastal engineering. The waterfronts of urban, tourism or industrial zones have usually been engineered by way of seawalls, dykes, breakwaters, jetties, or any hard and rock-armoured structures, which aims at protecting the construction or other assets landwards the coastline from the assault of the sea. Such structures modify wave and flow patterns in the near shore zone and therefore cause a redistribution of sediment. The net sediment volume in the coastal zone may not be strongly affected, but the sediment redistribution can induce erosion in some places and accretion in others. Land claim. Within tidal basins or bays (where land reclamation projects are most easily undertaken), land reclamation results in a reduction of the tidal volume and therefore a change in the ebb and flood currents transporting sediments. As a result, relatively stable coastal stretches may begin to erode. River basin regulation works. Damming has effectively sealed water catchments locking up millions of cubic metres of sediments per year. For some southern European rivers (e.g. Ebro, Douro, Urumea, Rhone), the annual volume of sediment discharge represents less than 10% of their level of 1950; for the Ebro this is even less than 5%. This results in a considerable sediment deficit at the river mouth, and subsequent erosion downstream as illustrated in Ebro delta, Playa Gross, Petite Camargue (Rhone delta) and Vagueira. Dredging. Dredging may affect coastal processes by removing from the foreshore materials (stones, pebbles) which protect the coast against erosion, and by contributing to the sediment deficit in the coastal sediment cell. Vegetation clearing. A significant number of cases have highlighted the positive role of vegetation to increase the resistance to erosion. Gas mining or water extraction. Gas mining or water extraction may induce land subsidence, causing sediment deficit and a retreat of the coastline. Direct anthropogenic effects on effective sea-level rise (ESLR) From an assessment of contemporary effective sea-level rise (ESLR) for a sample of 40 deltas distributed worldwide it was concluded that direct anthropogenic effects determine ESLR in the majority of deltas studied, with a relatively less important role for eustatic sea-level rise. According to this study, serious challenges to human occupancy of deltaic regions worldwide are conveyed by other factors than the climate change–sea-level rise (3). For any delta, ESLR is a net rate, defined by the combination of eustatic sea-level rise, the natural gross rate of fluvial sediment deposition and subsidence, and accelerated subsidence due to groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction. The deltas in this study represent all major climate zones, levels of population density, and degrees of economic development. The study includes the European deltas of Danube, Ebro, Po, Rhine, and Rhone. Collectively, the sampled deltas serve as the endpoint for river basins draining 30% of the Earth's landmass, and 42% of global terrestrial runoff. Nearly 300 million people inhabit these deltas. For the contemporary baseline, ESLR estimates range from 0.5 to 12.5 mm per year (3). Decreased accretion of fluvial sediment resulting from upstream siltation of artificial impoundments and consumptive losses of runoff from irrigation are the primary determinants of ESLR in nearly 70% of the deltas. Approximately 20% of the deltas show accelerated subsidence, while only 12% show eustatic sea-level rise as the predominant effect. Extrapolating contemporary rates of ESLR through 2050 reveals that 8.7 million people and 28,000 km2 of deltaic area in the sample set of deltas could suffer from enhanced inundation and increased coastal erosion (3). Adaptation strategies - Four key recommendations Four key recommendations have been proposed to make coastal erosion problems and risks in Europe manageable (1): 1. Increase coastal resilience by restoring the sediment balance and providing space for coastal processes. A more strategic and proactive approach to coastal erosion is needed for the sustainable development of vulnerable coastal zones and the conservation of coastal biodiversity. In light of climate change it is recommended that coastal resilience is enhanced by: (a) restoring the sediment balance; (b) allocating space necessary to accommodate natural erosion and coastal sediment processes and (c) the designation of strategic sediment reservoirs (supplies of sediment of ‘appropriate’ characteristics that are available for replenishment of the coastal zone, either temporarily (to compensate for losses due to extreme storms) or in the long term (at least 100 years)). 2. Internalise coastal erosion cost and risk in planning and investment decisions. Public responsibility for coastal erosion risk should be limited and an appropriate part of the risk should be transferred to direct beneficiaries and investors. Risks should be monitored and mapped, evaluated and incorporated into planning and investment policies. Current practices observed in Europe reveal that the tax payer – through expenditures executed by public authorities - supports the major part of the costs associated with coastal erosion risk. Almost no cases are found were the parties responsible for coastal erosion or the owners of assets at risk paid the bill. The contribution of private funding for coastal erosion management in European member states probably does not reach 10% of the public expenditure (except for Denmark: a contribution from private owners up to 50% of the overall cost of coastal defence). 3. Make responses to coastal erosion accountable. Coastal erosion management should move away from piecemeal solutions to a planned approach based upon accountability principles, by optimising investment costs against values at risk, increasing social acceptability of actions and keeping options open for the future. 4. Strengthen the knowledge base of coastal erosion management and planning. Over the past hundred years the limited knowledge of coastal sediment transport processes at the local authority level has often resulted in inappropriate measures of coastal erosion mitigation. In many cases, measures may have solved coastal erosion locally but have exacerbated coastal erosion problems at other locations – up to tens of kilometres away – or have generated other environmental problems. Denmark Vulnerabilities Denmark consists of the Jutland peninsula and more than 400 islands. The whole of the country is lowland. The surface was formed by Ice Age glaciers and glacial streams. The highest hill is approximately 170 metres above sea level. The coastline has a length of more than 7300 km. To protect low-lying land against flooding and storm surge, dikes or other permanent installations have been built along about 1800 km of coastline (3). Five types of coastline can be identified: rocky coast, soft cliff coast, tidal flat / marsh coast, protected coast, and sandy dune coast. Some parts of the coast are eroding, such as northern Jutland (2-4 m/year)) and the central west (North Sea) coast (2-8 m/year) (1). The Danish coastline partly comprises active coastal cliffs where the sea erodes material, and partly beach-ridge complexes, where the material is deposited in the lee of prevailing winds. About 80% of the population lives in urban areas connected to the coast. In recent years beach nourishment has increasingly been used to protect exposed stretches of coastline (3). For Denmark a mean sea level rise has been projected of 0.15-0.45 m for 2050 and 0.30-1 m for 2100, excluding vertical land movement. Maximum wind speed during storms is projected to increase between 1 and 10% until 2100 (2). Increased sea level rise and increased storminess will increase erosion rates. The increase will be largest along the western and northern coastline, and may be an additional 5.0-7.0 m/year in these parts (1). It appears that impacts due to possible changes in the direction and strength of winds may be as important as those attributed to sea level rise. By and large, expected impacts could probably be counteracted by running maintenance. Beach nourishment is an increasingly used technique. In 1992 it was estimated (4) that it would cost about 60 million Dkr. per cm sea level rise on 120 km of the west coast of Jutland from Lodbjerg to Nymindegab. Adaptation strategies The opportunities for continuous climate change adaptation are generally good, and in some areas are already underway. Where coastal erosion is countered by regular beach nourishment with sand, individual site owners just increase the amount of sand to correspond to actual needs (4). The Danish adaptation strategy allows site owners to raise the beach at their own cost by regular beach nourishment to combat coastal erosion. Generally speaking, it is a land owner’s own choice whether and how to protect themselves from flooding and erosion (5). The same applies to channel dredging, where the amount dredged can be increased as required (4). The estimated additional erosion can be counteracted easily by coastal protection measures such as increased sand nourishment volumes or a heightening of groins and breakwaters (1,6). Compared with 2008 the additional artificial supply for compensating for anticipated climate change effects is estimated to be 17% in 2050 and 49% in 2100 (7). References The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Denmark. Sørensen (2013) Klimatilpasning (2010), in: Sørensen (2013) Danish Ministry of the Environment (2005) Jacobsen et al. (1992), in: Fenger (2000) Dronkers and Stojanovic (2016) Niemeyer et al. (2016) Jensen and Sørensen (2008), in: Niemeyer et al. (2016) Estonia Vulnerabilities Estonia has a long (3,800 km) coastline due to numerous peninsulas, bays and islands (over 1,500). It has large untouched bogs (ca 15% of territory), a large number of lakes (ca 1,450) and rivers, and a very flat relief (almost two thirds of the territory lies less than 50 m above sea level). The highest point is Suur Munamägi, 317 m above sea level). It has limestone cliffs all along the Nordic coastline of the mainland and largest islands (3). A number of shore types can be distinguished along the Estonian coast: cliffs (5%), scarps (short sections between other shore types), till (35%), gravel (11%), sand (16%), silt (31%) and artificial (2%; breakwaters, protecting walls, berms) (1). Tides are negligible (< 5 cm) but wind-induced storm surges can range over 4 m in Estonia, 3 m on the southern coast of the Gulf of Riga and over 2 m on the open Baltic Sea coast (2). Owing to its flat and low-lying coastal zone, which is experiencing isostatic and tectonic uplift, the development of the coast should be stable, although activation of coastal processes has been observed in Estonia for the last 20-30 years. Researchers relate the extensive erosion and alteration of depositional coasts, such as sandy beaches, to the recent increased storminess in the eastern Baltic Sea (4,8) and the decline in the occurrence of sea ice (8). The annual maximum sea level on the Estonian west coast has increased during the last decade. Fewer storms seemingly affect the coast but in western Estonia they have become significantly more intense (1). The current rate of coastal change in this area is many times higher than in the 1950s. In autumn and winter, the westerly and south-westerly storm winds can raise the sea level to 2.6 m above the summer level (8). The decreasing rate at which shore processes are occurring on the northern coast of Estonia and the increasing rate at which such processes are occurring in western Estonia have been documented and related to a northward shift of the cyclone trajectories in recent decades resulting in a reduction of northerlies and an increase in westerlies (11). Due to a long coastline and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and the location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk (5). Storm data were related to the most significant recorded coastal change events. According to the researchers, the most marked coastal changes in Estonia result from a combination of strong storms, high sea-levels induced by storm surge, ice free seas and unfrozen sediments, all of which enhance erosion and transport of sediments above the mean sea-level and inland the mean coastline (4,10). An analysis of shoreline changes shows that shore processes have intensified over the last 20 years, the majority of the changes occurring during stormy periods. Shoreline changes have been 4–10 times greater in recent decades than before. The intensification of shore processes is well correlated with the increased annual storminess and the higher sea levels but also with the absence of ice cover near the coast in recent decades. This combination induces intense erosion and transport of sediments above the mean sea level and the mean shoreline, leading to substantial changes in coastal morphology that persist for years or even decades (3). Frequency of storm days varied greatly during the second half of the 20th century with a minimum in the 1960s and a maximum during the last two decades. The increase during the last two decades is probably associated with increased westerly’s and cyclonic activity in Northern Atlantic in winter resulting in warmer winters in northern Europe and an ice-free Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast (4). It can be concluded that an extremely strong storm event like Gudrun in January 2005 may cause substantially larger changes to the depositional shores in west Estonia than all of the storms over the entire preceding 10-15 years (6). A 1-m global sea-level rise would result in considerable change in coastal ecosystems and would lead to significant economic risk across the different regions of Estonia. Increasing erosion and changes in sedimentation would seriously unbalance sandy beaches and dunes, particularly in south-western and north-eastern Estonia, leading to a negative impact on recreation. In the western part of Estonia (including the large islands), direct destruction of the coast would not be as great. Although seashore plant and animal communities could migrate inland, the interaction of changing water level and land use would result in the decrease of species variety. Here, the economic consequences would be greatest in urban areas, particularly in Tallinn and Pdrnu, the most important summer resort, where roads and buildings are often close to the present shoreline and where the topography is low and flat (8). In the case of a 1.0 m sea level rise by 2100, which is maximum scenario at present, the longest coastline section recession (6.4 km) would occur on the western coast of the mainland where extensive areas of reed bed and flooded meadows would relocate landwards or disappear. Possible damages in Tallinn, the capital city, would be the greatest compared to the other study areas. The greatest threat to the environment of the Gulf of Finland and the whole Baltic Sea is the dumping site of the former uranium enrichment plant in Sillamäe which is situated very close to the coastline and can be easily influenced during storms (5,8). This dumping site is separated from the sea by a narrow dam. Thousands of tonnes of radioactive substances containing 238U, 232Th, and 226Ra leak annually from the site into the soil and sea. Sea-level rise and stronger storms would jeopardise the efficiency of the dam and could result in catastrophic pollution of the Gulf of Finland (9). All countries along the southern Baltic seashore suffer from coastal erosion (7): In Denmark, the most visible erosion has taken place at capes and cliffs, with cliff erosion amounting to 0.2–0.5 m/year on average. On the German coast, major erosion takes place at capes and cliffs in the region of Kiel Bay (on average, 0.3– 0.4 m/year), on the islands of Rügen and Usedom, and east of Rostock. On the Polish coast, the average coastal retreat in the period 1875–1979 was 0.12 m/year, increasing to 0.5 m/year in the period 1960–1983, and 0.9 m/year in 1971–1983. Erosion processes are now present over 74% of the Polish coast. Owing to this, coastal defense structures have been erected along 26% of the Polish coast. In Latvia, over the past 50–60 years, long-term cliff erosion has occurred at the rate of 0.5–0.6 m/year, reaching a maximum of 1–1.5 m/year along certain stretches of the coast. Since 1980/1981, the rates of erosion along the Latvian coast have increased to 1.5–4 m/year. A similar situation has also been observed along the coast of Lithuania. In Estonia, there has been increased activity of both erosion and accumulation processes in recent decades. Adaptation strategies Seawall construction and beach nourishment are two options that could prevent coastal land loss in Estonia (9). In the case of a 1 m sea level rise, coastal cities of Estonia would need extended seawalls, dikes, and groynes to ensure effective protection and avoid socioeconomic damage. The most practical option to preserve unique and valuable natural ecosystems in the west Estonian archipelago and the west Estonian plain would be to artificially reinforce the headlands. This would help to avoid straightening of the shoreline and protect the biotopes of rare plant species and communities but would also result in enhanced erosion of bays. In areas where this option is impractical, loss of unique ecosystems appears inevitable (9). In the case of a 1 m sea level rise, beach nourishment for Estonia's sandy beaches would be needed on the western coast of Hiiumaa, the south-western coast of Saaremaa, the southern part of the Pfirnu-Ikla study area, and in limited sections along the northern coast of Estonia. However, this is an expensive adaptation option and is most likely to be applied where highly developed and economically efficient recreational facilities exist (9). There are no recent major projects along the Estonian coast concerning coastal erosion (1). References The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Estonia. Tonisson et al. (2013) Eberhards (2003), in: Tonisson et al. (2013) Ministry of the Environment of Estonia (2009) Orviku et al. (2003) Kont et al. (2003) Kont et al. (2007) HELCOM (2007) Kont et al. (2008) KontT et al. (1996b), in: Kont et al. (2008) Orviku et al. (2009) Tõnisson et al. (2011) Finland References Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Finland. Salman et al. (2004) Salman et al. (2002), in: Salman et al. (2004) Ericson et al. (2006) Germany Vulnerabilities - German coastline Germany’s coast extends over 3700 km on both the North (1600 km) and Baltic Seas (2100 km). Two-thirds of the 3,700 km coastline are eroding. The German coastline is mainly shallow, i.e., marsh, dune coast, or beach wall, while only approximately 11% of the coast (420 km) is steep. On the Baltic, more than half of the coastline belongs to the so-called Bodden Coast (Bodden are shallow bays and inlets cut off from the open Baltic Sea by islands, peninsulas, and narrow spits) (1). Recent coastal morphological investigations have shown that approximately 75% of all (sandy) coasts are subject to erosion. On the Baltic coast, the average rate of shoreline retreat is approximately 40 cm/year (1); large sections of the Baltic Sea coastline are retreating at an average rate of 0.2-0.3 m/year with maximum rates up to 1.5 m/year (3). Approximately 70% of the coastline of the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is permanently under retreat (4). The rate of active cliff erosion is 24 cm/year for Schleswig-Holstein and up to 30 cm/year for Mecklenburg- Vorpommern (5). Mean sea level rise for the German part of the Baltic Sea coastline is 1.1-1.3 mm/year (6); in addition, land subsidence of the southern part of the Baltic Sea in response to glacio-isostatic rebound is up to 2 mm/year (7). Although additional investment in flood and erosion protection will be considerable (estimated at more than 500 million US$) this seems manageable for the national and regional economies. On the other hand, hard coastline defence and accelerated sea-level rise will increase ‘‘coastal squeeze’’ on the seaward side, endangering important coastal ecosystems such as tidal flats (Wadden Sea), saltmarshes, and dunes. Currently there is no strategy to remedy this increasing ecological vulnerability (1). Adaptation strategies Coastal protection measures are both soft (beach nourishments) and hard. In Schleswig-Holstein and in Lower Saxony structural erosion in sandy environments is typically compensated by artificial nourishments, particularly on barrier islands (8). Especially the west coast of Sylt and the island Föhr are nourished on a large scale. For the Baltic Sea coast there might be an increasing future demand of sand for beach nourishment due to the predicted sea level rise (6). For the city of Hamburg, the loss of salt marshes is a major problem for the safety of the area against floods, especially along the Schleswig-Holstein coast. Therefore, specific measures have been initiated, like constructing revetments, structures that protect the marsh edges in order to prevent further cliff erosion; creating marshes by dumping dredged material, deposition of dredged material on inter-tidal areas along the mainland or Waddensea side of the barrier island; out banking of summer polders and opening of summer dikes in order to get a more frequent flooding of the area and higher sedimentation rates; and the construction of groins fields, creating of areas with reduced waves where accumulation of fine sediments is stimulated (2). References Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Germany. Sterr (2008) HafenCity Hamburg (2007), in: Walraven and Aerts (2008) Schwarzer et al. (2003); Ziegler and Heyen (2005); Niedermeyer et al. (2011), all in: Jensen and Schwarzer (2013) Harff et al. (2004), in: Jensen and Schwarzer (2013) Ziegler and Heyen (2005), in: Jensen and Schwarzer (2013) Jensen and Schwarzer (2013) Meyer and Harff (2005), in: Jensen and Schwarzer (2013) Niemeyer et al. (2016) Benninghoff and Winter (2019) Wahl et al. (2013), in: Benninghoff and Winter (2019) Elias et al. (2012), in: Benninghoff and Winter (2019) De Vet et al. (2017), in: Benninghoff and Winter (2019) Latvia Vulnerabilities The total length of the Latvian coastal zone is 496.5 km. It mainly consists of sandy beaches and dunes. Gravel, pebble or boulder covered beaches are more rare and there are hardly any steep coasts. In the areas of sand accumulation beyond the beach, 1–4 m high predunes with typical vegetation have formed. Beyond these, there is typically a belt of grey dunes and forest-covered coastal dunes dominated by pine trees (3). There is little urban development along the coast due to restrictions in the Soviet period; the developed area closer than 500 m from the shore is about 11% (1). Studies made in Latvia demonstrate that over the past 100 years land areas in some places have extended by 50– 200 m (in Irbe Strait from Luzna to Mikeltornis), however in most cases, the territories of land have receded and the width of the washed off coastal belt is 50–150m (in Nida, Bernatu Dune, in the section of Ulmale-Jurkalne bluff at the Baltic Sea coast, also in the Gulf of Riga in the coastal area of Kolka, Engure, Bigaunciems). By the end of 1970s, the erosion rate of the coast was 0.5-1 m, at some locations 1.5 m per annum, however during the past decades the erosion rate has increased 2–5 times (3). From 1992-2011, some 120 km of the coastline has been affected by erosion; for some 60 km erosion rate is >0.5 m/year. Over the last decades, there has been a sharp reduction in sea ice duration time (2) as a result of which ice is not acting as a natural ‘protective barrier’ during winter storms. The most intensive erosion is near Kurzeme coast (near Bernāti and Jūrkalne) where the coast during the year may step back by up to 20-30 metres. Seriously endangered is also the western coast of Riga Bay because of the concentration of housing in historical villages of fishermen. Observations show that in the last 50-60 years the average wash-off of coasts in approximately 30% of total length of the coastal belt of Latvia reached 30-50 m, the maximal wash-off being 100-200 m (4). In the past 20–30 years, the force of devastating autumn and winter storms in Latvia (as observed also elsewhere in Europe and globally) is increasing and the drifts of wind born water mass in the coastal area are getting higher. At the same time, winters are getting warmer – without coastal ice in the shallow sea zone and freezing of soil. As a result, erosion of the coast increases (3). As 62% of the 496.5 km long coastal line (corresponding to 27% of the total border length) in Latvia is considered as an area of increased risk from erosion, every year the monitoring of the geological processes on the sea coast is carried out within the scope of the National Environmental Monitoring Program. The low sandy coasts with dunes (the Baltic Sea coast from Pape to Jurmalciems and around the furthest point on the western coast of Latvia) are most vulnerable to erosion (3). Vulnerabilities – The Latvian coast in the future It is projected that (4): The location of the key risk areas of coastal wash-off will be determined by the direction of wind during the strong storms, their duration, frequency and crowding of water mass in the coastal zone. With climate becoming warmer, the number of storms caused by southern, southwestern and western winds will go up. Baltic Sea coastal zone from Nida till Ovī.i and Kurzeme coast of Riga Bay will be subjected to the risk of flooding and wash-off. During very strong and lengthy northwestern storms the whole coastal zone of Latvia will most probably be subjected to wash-off. Approximately 100-150 living houses, household buildings, roads, cemeteries, beacons and other constructions will be found in the high-risk area of coastal wash-off. The biggest number of housing properties affected by wash-off will be located between Kolka and Jūrmala. In the nearest 40-50 years the width of the basic coast wash-off will occasionally reach 100-300 m. Considerable areas of pine forests in coastal dunes, natural meadows and agricultural land will be lost. Adaptation strategies About 2% of the total coastal line is occupied by coastal areas reinforced with hydrotechnical constructions and port territories. Therefore one of the essential measures to minimise the adverse effects on the coastal processes leeward of piers (to decrease erosion of the coast) caused by ports, the external hydro-technical structures and navigation channels is the dumping of the ground regularly removed from port aquatoria and ship waterways in these shallow water zones (5–6 m) (1,3). References Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Latvia. Tonisson et al. (2013) Meier et al. (2004), in: Tonisson et al. (2013) Ministry of the Environment of the Republic of Latvia (2006) Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development of Latvia (2001) HELCOM (2007) Lithuania Vulnerabilities Lithuania has an about 92 kilometer long coastline of the Baltic Sea. It is a complex area including terrestrial and marine features: sandy beaches, dunes, fens, inshore waters and an underwater slope, a few moraine cliffs (3). The area of the Curonian Lagoon is about 1584 km2. The Lagoon is a semi-enclosed almost fresh water body, which is separated from the sea by a narrow sandy spit (minimum width is about 400 m). About 26% of the Curonian Lagoon area belongs to the Lithuanian Republic, the other part to the Russian Federation. The length of the Lithuanian part of the Lagoon coastline is about 150 km (1,3). The northern part of the Lithuanian coast currently experiences rapid erosion, reaching 60-70 m during the last 70- 80 years in some sections (2). The southern part of the Lithuanian coast is stabler and accumulation has reached up to 80-90 m during the last 100 years (8). The length of the eroding coastline has increased from 18 to 27% between 1990 and 2003. The proportion of the accreting coast fell from 40 to just 12% over the same period. Port development and recreational activities are among the most important factors causing coastal erosion. Also, acceleration of sea level rise has been observed on the Lithuanian coast (9). Between 1970 and 2000, Baltic Sea level rose by more than15 cm (10). Rising sea level and more frequent winter storms will determine the more frequent floods in the coastal zone (especially on the River Nemunas delta); destruction of the Baltic sea shores and the degradation of dunes will grow stronger, average height of waves will keep growing bigger (4). The strength of erosive processes on the sandy south coasts of the Baltic Sea is enhanced with the lengthening of the ice-free period. It has also been seen that the number of strong storms is on the rise. Lithuania for example has experienced 10 storms previously considered as ‘once in a hundred years events’ during the past 50 years! (5). In addition, significant changes in wind direction along the Lithuanian coast have been observed that have led to enhanced occurrence of southwestern waves being one of the causes of more intensive erosion of the Lithuanian coast (7). Adaptation strategies Hard constructions are limited. Beach and nearshore nourishments are being used to restore the sand balance disturbed by the port breakwaters (1). References Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Lithuania. Tonisson et al. (2013) Gudelis (1998), in: Tonisson et al. (2013) Dailidiené et al. (2006) Republic of Lithuania (2010) Haanpää et al. (2007) HELCOM (2007) Kelpšaitė and Dailidienė (2011) Gudelis (1995), in: Tonisson et al. (2013) Jarmalavičius et al. (2007), in: Tonisson et al. (2013) Johansson et al. (2001); Dailidienė et al. (2006), both in: Tonisson et al. (2013) Poland Vulnerabilities The Polish coastline is 1032 km long, but about 500 km excluding the coastline of the Szczecin and Vistula Lagoons. Of this 500 km, some 420 km is fringed with wide sandy beaches backed by dunes, about 80 km are cliff shores (1). The strengthened section of the coast, including cliffs and dunes, is some 137 km (2). The number of erosion-prone areas is higher than that of accumulation areas; most of the coastline is classified as stable, however, with only minor changes (+/- 50 m per 100 years) (1). The Baltic Sea is practically non-tidal; tidal range is 6 cm for the Polish coast. … Two basic shore types exist: dunes and barrier beaches, and cliffs. Cliffs comprise about 100 km of the coastline and are cut into Pleistocene sediments (3). Poland’s coast can be split into three different areas reflecting major physiographic and economic differences along the Polish coast (3): Area I mainly covers the Odra Estuary (and the conurbations of Szczecin and Swinoujscie). Area II encompasses the western and central-eastern dunes, cliffs, and the open sea barrier beaches (including the Hel Peninsula). Area III covers the Vistula Delta (and the conurbations of Gdansk, Sopot, and Elbag). The analysis of the south Baltic coastal changes during the late 19th and 20th century has revealed the intensification of erosive phenomena within all elements of the coastal system. In addition to an increase of sea level rise over the last decades, the occurrence of storm surges has become more frequent—an effect associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. These phenomena have caused the intensification of erosive changes and the increasing necessity of protection of affected shore segments (3). The highest storm surges associated with the inflow of water from the North Sea, causing severe erosion and flooding, were recorded in 1874 (1.96 m above Mean Sea Level) and in 1913/1914 (1.95 m above MSL) (1). Currently, the total length of coast threatened by moderate and high erosion amounts to about 208 km, approximately 41.5% of the open sea coast. This includes the important Hel Peninsula. It is expected that over 70% of the shore length would be subjected to moderate to great erosion threats in the future. Over the next decades we can expect that the most threatened shore segment will be located in the Vistula outlet region and at many coastal segments of the central coast (3). Erosion is increasing in Poland (8). While sea level rise contributes to a background recession of the Polish coast, the increased rate of coastal change mainly reflects the increasing number of storms from the westerly and northwesterly sectors and direct human influence. In the west and centre of the Polish coast, large disturbances to the littoral drift occurred because of the extension of harbour breakwaters at Kolobrzeg, Darlowo, Ustka, and Leba, which were constructed in the second half of the 19th century. These port breakwaters have significantly interrupted the predominantly easterly sediment transport. After construction of the breakwaters, accretion cones formed updrift (to the west), although these are currently decreasing in size because of a lack of new sediment input. This downdrift starvation has led to the development of erosive bays with a longshore length of 3 to 47 km (3). The regions with the highest threats are associated with the spits of coastal lagoons, the Hel Peninsula, and the coastal lowlands near the harbours, and in the area of the Szczecin Lagoon and, most particularly, the Vistula Delta (3). Area I Area I mainly comprises agricultural land. In this area, the western part of the Polish coast, erosion is not a big issue. In Poland protective investments against sea level rise should mainly be undertaken along the west and east coasts, where economically justified, while along the central coast, only more localised protection would seem appropriate (3). Area II The central region of Area II is subject to intensive erosion over the last few decades (exceeding 5–7 m/y from 1971–1983) (7), which makes it one of the most vulnerable stretches along the Polish coast. Infrastructure measures have been taken, however, to improve the preservation of natural values and reduce the risk of storm- induced flooding. … The highest percentage (27%) of threatened Polish coastal natural area (unique on a European scale) is located in the region of the Slowinski National Park (3). The Hel Peninsula, a large spit separating the Gulf of Gdansk from the open sea, is most vulnerable, and will become a small island if no protection measures are applied. It is 72 km in length, and the spit locally narrows to 100–200 m. The erosion rate from 1971 to 1983 was assessed as medium (0.5–1 m/yr). … This will require significant protection measures in the form of beach nourishment and local dikes. … The cliff coasts are the sources of sediment for maintaining the budget of the coastal sediments; therefore, only cliff segments whose defence is absolutely necessary should be protected (3). Area III Area III is the most vulnerable area for economic reasons when compared with the other coastal regions in Poland. … Full prevention measures should be considered to prevent any loss of this important industrial, scientific, and cultural centre of northern Poland. The existing dykes will become too low under the projected climate change scenarios (3). Adaptation strategies Protective systems have already been developed for about 26% of the Polish coastline. About 98 km of the coast are fronted by groynes, while 41 km are protected by light and heavy revetments. The highest level of coastal protection exists along the 126 km long Jaroslawiec–Swinoujscie part of the Polish open coastline, where coastal defence structures extend over 71 km. The Hel Peninsula, Gulf of Gdansk, is protected along 34% of its length (3). Between the 1900s and 1940s, groynes were the main type of protection used along with some light and heavy revetments. … At the end of the 1970s artificial nourishment was introduced, and this is now the established methodology used to protect 56 km of shoreline (3). Coastal flood protection in Poland is designed for a 100 year return period of storm flood levels (4). Area I Full protection of the Odra estuary requires preservation of the polders on the periphery of the estuary. … All existing polder dykes must be adapted to the projected situation, and many new dykes must be constructed. … Wharves in ports and urban areas must also be raised (3). Depending on the sea level rise scenario, in total 107 - 280 km of new dykes must be constructed in Area I. The lengths of upgraded dykes are 243-324 km. The cost of full protection in Area I is estimated between US$0.5 billion and US$2 billion, i.e., generally less than 10% of the value of the lost property and land (3). Area II To protect the most important places in Area II, new polders are required together with new facilities such as pumping stations, drainage, and other infrastructure, while older polders must be redesigned. … Finally, the full protection option for Area II embodies the construction of more than 200 km of new dykes as well as the upgrade of up to 290 km of dykes, depending on the sea level rise scenario. These dykes are partly required around the coastal lakes and partly along the rivers to protect adjacent coastal lowlands (3). Area III Depending on the sea level rise scenario, 13-52 km of new dykes, and the upgrade of 600-647 km of existing dykes are required. A substantial part of the urban area of Gdansk is in the hazard zone under average sea level rise and should be protected by a system of dykes, including along the water canals that connect the port and city with the sea. Moreover, the system should include storm gates at the mouth of Martwa Wisla and improvement of drainage and pumping systems. … Regular monitoring will be necessary on the most threatened coastal segments including those associated with the newest investments in the coastal zone, such as the landfall of optical fibre lines and gas pipelines (3). References Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Poland. Furmańczykk, K. (2013) Przyscłość (2006), in: Furmańczykk, K. (2013) Pruszak and Zawadzka (2008) Ministry of the Environment and the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Managementof the Republic of Poland(2010) Pruszak (2000), in: Pruszak and Zawadzka (2008) Zawadzka (1999), in: Pruszak and Zawadzka (2008)
Russia Vulnerabilities In the Russian Federation, 25,000 km of the 61,000 km total length of the marine coast suffers from severe erosion (1). Russian Arctic (permafrost) coastlines are particularly prone to erosion as rising sea levels encounter thermokarst areas. Thermal abrasion of areas of melting permafrost in areas of unconsolidated sediments results in rapid coastal recession. Thus in the Laptev Sea area, the coastline is receding by 2.5m/year (2). wo segments of the Baltic Sea coastal zone belong to the Russian Federation: the Kaliningrad Region (150 km) and the Eastern Gulf of Finland (about 520 km). Baltic Sea Coast - Eastern Gulf of Finland The latter is made up of small rocky islands to the north-west, embayments to the south-west and a coastline open to storm surges to the east. Coastal recession to the east is 2-2.5 m/year at some locations, partly due to anthropogenic impacts of insufficient coastal protection system and intense recreational infrastructure development (1). A series of extreme storms accompanied with high surges, in autumn 2006 to winter 2007, caused abrupt erosion, and these events have changed the appearance of many coastal sections much more than decades of previous, relatively slow development. During these events, the water level rose more than 2 m above the long-term mean in St. Petersburg (3). Neva Bay area geometry is such that propagation of long waves into the eastern part of the gulf is accompanied by a rapid water level increase. During the history of St Petersburg (1703-2008), 307 floods higher than 160 cm occurred (4). Three of them were catastrophic. The highest surge ever (4.21 m) occurred on 19 November 1824. Tidal water level changes are very small, just 1-5 cm. Significant coastal protection measures, kilometers of embankments and many artificial islands should help to protect St Petersburg against floods and storms. St Petersburg flood protection works were completed in 2011 (1). Baltic Sea Coast - Kaliningrad Region The southeastern Baltic shore is an open sand coast with eroded cliffs and coastal lagoons separated by spit sand barriers from the sea. The coastline includes 48 km of the Curonian Spit and 35 km of the Vistula Spit. The mainland shore is under intensive permanent erosion, while the shores of both sand spits are characterized by alternation of eroded/accreted segments (Boldyrev and Bobyina, 2008). Tidal amplitude does not exceed 5-10 cm and maximum storm surges are 1.3-1.8 m (Gurova et al., 2008). The long-term average erosion is estimated to be 0.6-0.7 m/yr; intensification of erosion rates up to 0.8-1 m has been observed in recent years (1). Adaptation strategies Along the Gulf of Finland, problems of coastal erosion are becoming more important and further beach nourishment together with engineering structures such as T-form groins or submarine breakwaters parallel to the shoreline and usage of artificial reefs as breakwaters is being considered (1). Over the last 300 years, several measures have been carried out to try to stabilize the coastline of the Kaliningrad Region along the Baltic Sea coast (planting pines, protective wall, groins). All coastal protection methods protect the shore immediately behind them but cause more intensive erosion further downstream (1).
References Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Russia. Kosyan et al. (2013) Climate Change Risk Management Ltd (2008) Ryabchuk et al. (2009), in: Kosyan et al. (2013) Floods Catalogue, www.nevariver.u/flood_list.php, in: Kosyan et al. (2013) Sweden Vulnerabilities The Swedish coast has a total length of approximately 11,500. Sand beaches mainly occur in the southern part of the country (Scania), and along the coasts of large islands in the Baltic Sea (Öland and Gotland) and archipelagos along several parts of the coast. Coastal erosion occurs primarily along the Scanian coast and adjacent coastal areas, on pocket beaches and soft cliffs of archipelagos near Gothenburg, Stockholm, Piteå and Luleå, and on cliffs on Gotland (1). Relative sea level rise near the Scanian beaches varies between 0-1 mm/year. Water level variations at Scanian beaches due to wind and differences in air pressure are pronounced because of the limited Baltic Sea water mass. High and low water levels can be up to 1.7 m above and 1.5 m below Mean Sea Level, respectively. The tidal variation is negligible. Beach erosion along the Scanian coast may be classified into 3 categories (1): Beaches where man-made structures disturb equilibrium conditions, typically in a pocket beach; Stretches of open coast that are locally out of equilibrium with the prevailing wave climate, and where the influence of man is secondary; Dunes and cliffs that are attacked during storms when high waves and water levels prevail. Cases of most severe beach erosion have erosion rates of 1-2 m/year (1). The global rise in sea level of 88 cm gives a rise in average water level of about 80 cm in southern Sweden (up to Östergötland) at the end of the century, 50 cm in the central region (up to Uppland) and 20 cm in the northern region, taking into account subsidence. In northern Sweden, land elevation and any rise in sea levels essentially counter each other (3). The possible impact of sea level rise due to climate change on dune erosion was calculated for the Scanian coast near Ystad. Results indicate a 25% dune erosion increase until 2100 for the average sea level rise scenario (+38 cm) and a 75% increase for the most extreme scenario tested (+85 cm) (1). Land uplift is taking place in most of Sweden as a result of the melting of the massive land ice of the last ice age, but in the southernmost part of the country uplift has come to a halt. The ongoing rise in sea level is therefore leading to substantial coastal erosion along Sweden’s southern coast where the land consists of easily eroded soils. Climate change as a consequence of future increased atmospheric temperature will strengthen this erosion (3). The stretches of coast at greatest risk are in Skåne and Blekinge and on the islands of Öland and Gotland (4). Waterside housing has become increasingly sought-after. An increasingly large proportion of construction is taking place in the coastal zone (5 km from the coast), in southern Sweden almost half. Just over 30 per cent of buildings in the country are located in the coastal zone. The proportion of buildings constructed within 100 m of the shoreline more than doubled between the 1970s and the end of the 1990s, according to a report from the National Board of Housing, Building and Planning. This shoreline building development occupies around 30 per cent of the total coastline of Sweden (4). With respect to the impacts of climate change, 10-15% of the development along the coast may have to be protected in the future (2). Adaptation strategies Coastal erosion must be viewed in a wider perspective based on the interests of society. The point of departure ought to be that nature has its way in areas where there are no private or public interests or values at threat. Through planning processes the local authority is responsible for localising development to land suited to the purpose. If values of importance are threatened, such as development, infrastructure and other areas worthy of protection, measures may be appropriate. Areas of great natural or recreational value can also be important to protect, but are of secondary importance (4). According to the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (4), the compensation system for preventative measures in the event of natural disasters should also include beach erosion. Erosion has thus far been interpreted as a natural disaster with a slow course of events, even though it can eventually lead to rapid events with major losses of land or development. Climate change with rising sea levels, higher winds and possibly changed currents can lead to the risk of threatened values increasing. According to calculations of the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (4), around 150,000 buildings are located in an area susceptible to erosion in the case of a rise in sea level of 88 cm.The value of these properties amounts to approximately SEK 220 billion. A rough estimate of the cost of protecting against beach erosion (protection and beach nourishment) along these 220 km is SEK 2.7–5.4 billion. In addition to this, the annual maintenance cost amounts to SEK 3,000–4,000 per metre of coast (5). So far, coastal protection measures have almost exclusively been hard structures, but soft solutions such as beach nourishments are now being carried out at several locations (1). References Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Sweden. Larson et al. (2013) Rydell (2007) Ministry of the Environment of Sweden (2009) Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (2007) Rydell (2007), in: Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (2007)
The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
Main report Executive summary
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Mapping Coastal Evolution and Risks in a Changing Climate
Global and European sea-level rise Country overview and assessment
4. DENMARK
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Denmark. After detailing the vulnerability of Denmark’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Denmark as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
4.1. VULNERABILITY OF DENMARK’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The Danish coastline measures 4 605 km, bordering the Baltic Sea in the east and the North Sea in the west. Along the western coast, the country consists of a large peninsula, Jutland. The country is known for its many islands as Zealand and Lolland as well as its hundreds of minor islands often referred to as the Danish Archipelago.
The following paragraphs discuss the main climate change risks for the coastal zones of Denmark. Overall, the country’s vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion is rather limited. The main threat is likely to come from increased rainfall and flash storms. Also, the loss of eco-systems or wetlands due to climate change deserves attention.
a/ Flooding and erosion Denmark’s vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion is rather limited. Although the Danish North Sea coast is more exposed to SLR and storm surges than the eastern part of the country, flooding and erosion are not considered to pose a real threat as low-lying coastal areas are often farmland or land with few inhabitants.
A few exceptions are the municipalities of Lolland and Greve situated along the Baltic Sea as well as the west coast of Jutland which is exposed to the North Sea. Also Copenhagen, as a low-lying city, is potentially vulnerable to coastal flooding. Figure 4-1 provides an overview of the municipalities of
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Denmark at highest risk or most advanced in terms of adaptation to climate change together with an overview of the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the Danish coastal zones. The municipalities are detailed in the remainder of the text.
Figure 4-1: Municipalities of Denmark and the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones
Frederikshavn
B a l t i c S Physical and socio-economic indicators North sea Baltic Sea e a Sea Level Rise High Low
a Jutland e Coastline length 4 605 km S Hedensted h t r 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation 22%
o N Copenhagen Coastline subject to erosion 607 km (13%)
GDP in 50 km zone (€ million) 104 043 (72%)
Greve Population in 50 km zone 5 397 640 (100%)
Lolland Source: Policy Research based on EEA, 2006, The changing faces of Europe’s coastal areas (for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
The municipality of Lolland, represents, with an area of 1,243 km² and a population of close to 48 000 inhabitants, the fourth largest island of Denmark. Together with Greve, located in the southern part of Greater Copenhagen, the municipality is considered one of the most flood-prone areas of Denmark. The west coast of Jutland on the other hand is most exposed to the North Sea waves and vulnerable to coastal erosion. Along the coast, natural beach erosion averages 2 m/year.
The main climate change threat for Denmark appears to be increased rainfall and flash storms. The current sewage systems are not able to cope with large amounts of water as was demonstrated during the storms of 2002 and 2007. In the municipality of Greve, evacuation was needed to protect the citizens as the whole area was flooded. Despite this, Danish sewage systems have until now been planned without taking a climate induced SLR into account.
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b/ Freshwater shortage In 2006, calculations performed by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland1 revealed that available water resources will probably increase in west Jutland. In river valleys and low-lying areas on the other hand, freshwater shortage could become a problem. Furthermore, a changed precipitation distribution, with a moderate rise in winter precipitation and a minor decrease in summer precipitation, could influence the ground water formation and the need for catchment areas. Saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers2 is only a problem in a few areas, e.g. smaller islands and along low- lying coasts, but for the moment this does not threaten freshwater availability.
The recently published Danish Strategy for Adaptation to Climate change3 stated that ad-hoc adaptation measures, e.g. the repositioning of catchment areas to areas where water resources are more plenty or where the influence on streams and wetlands is smaller, might be needed. Concrete measures are only expected to be taken after 2009 when the plans for the EU Water Framework Directive must be drawn up.
c/ Loss of coastal eco-systems Salt marshes and dunes are commonly found along the Danish coastline, especially along the west coast of Jutland. The areas constitute important natural habitats for a large number of plant and animal species. To safeguard their ecological as well as flood-protective characteristics, actions, as the designation of such areas as nature reserve, are undertaken by the national government of Denmark.
4.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
The overall principle regarding the implementation and financing of coastal protection in Denmark is that the persons who profit bear the responsibility. Hence, measures need to be initiated, financed and implemented by landowners or arranged for within the municipalities.
At national level coastal defence falls under the responsibility of the Danish Coastal Authority (DCA), a division of the Danish Ministry of Transport. The DCA’s actions are mainly focused on policy and strategic issues such as: − Supervising the compliance to coastal defence laws; − Providing advice with regard to coastal defence; − Approving regional and private plans for coastal protection works;
1 GEUS, 2007, Annual report 2006 – Research for a society in change. 2 Underground layers of water-bearing permeable rock or unconsolidated materials (gravel, sand, silt or clay) from which groundwater can be usefully extracted. 3 Danish Government, 2008, Danish strategy for adaptation to a changing climate.
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− Monitoring coastline changes; − Issuing warnings with regard to storm tide.
When private landowners feel the need to protect their coastal property, they can submit a project proposal to the DCA. Permission will usually be granted when: − There is concrete evidence that the landowner will be threatened by violence of the sea within the next 20 to 25 years; − The project does not harm any nearby Nature 2000 sites4; − The project complies with the coastal planning regulations.
Although most initiatives come from private landowners, municipalities can also initiate coastal protection projects for which the same procedures need to be followed. In this case, projects are financed with local taxes or through public-private partnerships.
4.3. RESEARCH INTO DENMARK’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
In Denmark, research into climate change and the development of climate change scenarios is mainly undertaken by different departments of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)5, a public institution set up under the Ministry of Climate and Energy.
The Forecasting Services Department monitors the weather, sea level, waves, currents and various other parameters such as sea-ice. The Danish Climate Centre Department on the other hand studies the future climate and the consequences of climate change. The goal is to make projections of the climate into the 21st century and to contribute to the understanding of the climate’s influence on the development of the Danish society.
Additionally, the Danish Coastal Authority carries out some research into climate change with the aim of providing better advice to the municipalities and enable better decision-making concerning the coastal protection projects they propose.
4 When the area of the project is situated next to a Nature 2000 area, the DCA can ask the local landowners to investigate the effects of the project on the Nature 2000 site. 5 DMI has developed, together with the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg, a climate model, called HIRHAM, to simulate regional climate variability and change and to interpret the changes in extreme events such as heavy precipitation and strong storms.
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4.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
The Danish government considers changes in climate still too uncertain to pro-actively invest in adaptation measures, as confirmed in the 2008 high-level national strategy for adaptation to a changing climate. For coastal zones, a spatial planning regulation is the main instrument offered at national level to protect people, infrastructure and nature against the violence of the sea. In addition, a national storm flood fund has been established to compensate flood damage. Coastal defence measures to protect against flooding, erosion and extreme weather events are only undertaken when there is a concrete need for it.
a/ Strategy and legislation at national level At present, coastal defence in Denmark is generally not driven by adaptation to climate change. Currently, the general tendency in the coastal protection policy of national authorities is “wait and see”. The Danish tradition of rather strict spatial planning regulations limits the impact of flooding along the coastline and in case of flooding in uninhabited areas, land is given back to the sea. When flood protection measures are a must, the Danish Coastal Authority mainly opts for beach nourishments or other soft defences.
Three acts of the Danish legislation are important to mention when considering coastal adaptation measures: − Coastal Protection Act: the municipalities have the right to undertake coastal protection projects when necessary, financed with the money from the local landowners gathered through taxes; − Nature Protection Act: in the first 300 m zone from the coast no new constructions may be build; − Planning Act: in the first 3 km from the coast planning for new activities is restricted.
Besides these planning restrictions, climate discussions in Denmark focused mainly on mitigation until recently. Though, in March 2008, the Danish government published a general strategy with regard to climate change adaptation. The main purpose is to support coordination and informed decisions about autonomous measures. The policy document sets the strategic agenda and does not contain any specific analysis or actions yet. Coastal zones are mentioned only briefly: − Climate adaptation may become a necessity due to SLR and more intense storms; − Enforcement of the protection structures may be needed based on risk-analyses; − An integrated flood warning system could be useful in the future.
In addition, the Local Government Denmark (LGDK), an interest group of Danish municipalities, has set up a discussion forum on climate change, offering municipalities the possibility to share good practices in the field of coastal protection and stimulate cooperation between them. Municipalities can also rely on the LGDK for individual consultancy services.
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In response to several flood events in Denmark, national authorities established a flood insurance scheme dedicated to coastal flooding in 1990. Compensation is paid to landowners, companies or farms that have suffered flood damage due to severe storm events. Since 2000, the fund has also been covering compensation payments for forest damages. Means for compensation are collected by an annual tax payment charged through all private fire insurance policies. Whenever a coastal flood takes place, the Danish Storm Council represented by Danish ministries, insurance companies and the Local Government Denmark, amongst others, decide whether or not and to whom compensations will be paid out.
b/ Protection and adaptation measures at sub-national level At the sub-national level, adaptation actions are making their way up on the agendas of the Danish municipalities. In recent years, and especially following the storm surges in 2006, the DCA has experienced an increase in the number of applications for coastal protection6.
As case in point coastal protection and climate change adaptation measures taken at the west coast of Jutland, the municipalities of Frederikshavn, Lolland, Greve and Hedensted and the city of Copenhagen are illustrated in the following paragraphs.
West coast of Jutland The protection of the Jutland west coast is carried out in 5-year timeframes. In each period the allowed rate of erosion and the appropriate measures are decided upon. Some stretches along the coastline are usually allowed to erode by 0.2-2 m/year (compared to natural erosion rates of 1-8 m/year along the entire stretch of the coast) while in other stretches measures are taken to prevent or reduce erosion.
The measures carried out, mainly sand nourishments, but also dune protection and revetments, are co- financed by the national government. It has to be noted that for historical reasons this is the only part of the coast that receives financial support from the national government.
Frederikshavn municipality Frederikshavn municipality is located on the northeast coast of the Jutland peninsula in northern Denmark. The municipality does not have a general adaptation plan or strategy but ad-hoc measures are undertaken to protect the municipality against flooding and erosion.
6 The number of applications has increased from about 100 per year prior to 2006, to 300 in 2007 and approximately +200 in 2008.
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The beaches on the east coast near Frederikshavn are nourished every year since 1982 to protect against flooding and erosion. Furthermore, in 2007, the harbour was extended to the east with 110 km² of land for industrial use. The outer constructions of this harbour were built 2 m above sea level to protect against flooding in the future. In addition, Frederikshavn plans to rebuild and extend the 25 breakwaters on the west coast to protect the village Gammel Skagen against erosion.
Lolland municipality The Lolland municipality is located in the south-east of Denmark, close to mean sea level. At present, coastal protection measures against flooding, erosion and extreme weather events are rarely taken but a climate adaptation plan is under development.
In September 2008, the Lolland municipality organised a workshop with the participation of local, regional and state actors to discuss local issues in Lolland regarding climate change adaptation. As a result, a draft proposal on the elements to be addressed in a future climate adaptation plan for Lolland has been formulated. The proposal highlights that: − Risk areas need to be indicated by the municipality; − Existing spatial plans need to be re-examined; − Cost-benefit analyses could be helpful; − The Ministry of Environment should integrate climate change in its 4-yearly planning.
Hedensted municipality The Hedensted municipality is situated on the eastern Jutland coast. The municipality has close to 46 000 inhabitants and predominantly consists of rural areas with large plains. Although the municipality has not experienced any severe weather events in the past, Hedensted is considered to be one of the forerunners in Denmark with regard to adaptation of coastal protection to climate change.
In 2008, the municipality published its first adaptation strategy. This strategy describes the vulnerability of Hedensted and states that coastal protection policy must be shaped on the basis of the IPCC scenarios (A2 scenario for urban areas, A1 scenario for open land areas). This strategy has mainly an effect on local government planning in which Sea Level Rise will be taken into account from 2009 onwards. Additionally it is a tool to trigger further investigations of climate change impacts and possible protection measures needed. Until now, ad-hoc protection measures along the coastal zone of Hedensted are owned and maintained by private landowners.
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Greve municipality Greve is located in the southern part of the Copenhagen region and it is situated at low elevation. The municipality has not yet experienced any severe coastal flooding, but is mainly exposed to flash storms.
In response to the severe flash floods of 2002 and 2007, the municipality of Greve started to investigate all major aspects of water flows in the city (e.g. flood plains, rivers, sewage-systems and storm water systems). The first measure put in place was a mapping of water flows, geological conditions and other determinants effecting the municipal water management. Secondly, the areas were identified that had the capacity to handle the water and to which water masses could be directed. These mapping exercises were complemented with a record of the most critical infrastructures to make a more solid scenario for how future flooding events could affect the municipality. As a result, first adaptations were made to the local sewage system.
Copenhagen Copenhagen is located on the east side of the Danish island Zealand and partly upon the island of Amager. The city has a population of around 1.3 million inhabitants of which only a small part lives in areas with an elevation of less than one metre above sea level. Parts of the city are protected by dikes but generally the city harbour is protected by quays which are about 2 m above sea level.
A recent OECD study7 states that currently most of Greater Copenhagen's 60 kilometres of coastline is well-protected, but highlights that the city itself is not equipped to handle extreme, temporary water increases of 1.5 meters or more. The report warns that the city should update the protection against flooding in key localities such as harbours and the historic centre of the city. The OECD estimates that under a 50 cm SLR scenario, the biggest storm likely in 120 years would bring waves that could cause € 5 billion of flood damage in the city. In a first reaction, the Danish government stated that the report presents a good idea of the true cost of climate change but that it was based too heavily on uncertainties. Dikes and higher port docks may be needed, but national authorities prefer to consider first the water level increases in the construction of new buildings and roads situated in the exposed areas.
7 Hallegatte S., Patmore N., Mestre O., Dumas P., Corfee Morlot J., Herweijer C. and Muir Wood R., 2008, Assessing climate change impacts, Sea Level Rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen.
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4.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ADAPTATION EXPENDITURE
As coastal protection works need to be financed by the persons who profit, measures will only be undertaken when it is necessary.
In 2008, the total national expenditure to protect the people, infrastructure and nature of the Danish coastal zones against flooding and erosion amounted to € 12.7 million. About € 10 million was spent on beach nourishments along the west coast of Jutland and € 2.7 million to compensate for flood damages.
At sub-national level ad-hoc measures are mainly undertaken in Jutland and Frederikshavn. In 2008, these municipalities spent respectively € 1.5 million and € 0.45 million on beach nourishments. For private spending, national or regional authorities could not provide an accurate estimate8.
The total of national and sub-national expenditure thus amounts to € 41.65 million for the year 2008. Over the entire period considered (1998-2015) Denmark spends about € 315 million to protect its coasts from flooding and erosion.
Table 4-1 provides an overview of the past, present and future expenditure on the protection against flooding, erosion and extreme weather in Denmark for the period 1998-2015.
8 Annual coastal protection spending by private owners is not known publicly but expected to have a minor impact; the only reference to private spending in Denmark can be found in the Safecoast project: ‘annual private coastal spending on 110 km of Danish west coast in 2004-2008 is expected to be below € 5 million’; Safecoast, 2008, Coastal flood risk and trends for the future in the North Sea region.
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Table 4-1: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)
MAINTENANCE EXPENDITURE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Year Jutland Frederikshavn Frederikshavn TOTAL Storm flood fund* (mainly beach (beach (rebuild/extend 25 Copenhagen nourishments)** nourishments)*** breakwaters)**** 1998 2.7 16.00 0.45 0 n.a. 19.15 1999 2.7 15.40 0.45 0 n.a. 18.55 2000 2.7 15.40 0.45 0 n.a. 18.55 2001 2.7 15.40 0.45 0 n.a. 18.55 2002 2.7 15.40 0.45 0 n.a. 18.55 2003 2.7 15.40 0.45 0 n.a. 18.55 2004 2.7 11.50 0.45 0 n.a. 14.65 2005 2.7 11.50 0.45 0 n.a. 14.65 2006 2.7 11.50 0.45 0 n.a. 14.65 2007 2.7 11.50 0.45 0 n.a. 14.65 2008 2.7 11.50 0.45 0 n.a. 14.65 2009 2.7 15.00 0.80 0.8 n.a. 19.30 2010 2.7 15.00 0.80 0 n.a. 18.50 2011 2.7 15.00 0.80 0 n.a. 18.50 2012 2.7 15.00 0.80 0 n.a. 18.50 2013 2.7 15.00 0.80 0 n.a. 18.50 2014 2.7 15.00 0.80 0 n.a. 18.50 2015 2.7 15.00 0.80 0 n.a. 18.50 48.6 255.5 10.55 0.8 n.a. TOTAL 315.45 314.65 0.8 * Proxy provided by the DCA ** Up to 90% is financed by the national government, forecast budgets are a proxy provided by the DCA *** Proxy provided by Frederikshavn municipality, the yearly expenditure on these nourishments is expected to increase due to the fact that the nourishments will take place from a ship in the future instead of from the coast as has been the case till now **** Expenditure provided by Frederikshavn municipality; the cost for this project will be shared between the local landowners and the municipality
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4.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
4.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation
Andersen, Mai M. Danish Meteorological Institute
Brandt, Gyrite Local Government Denmark
Dissing, Henrik Copenhagen municipality
Munk-Nielsen, Carl-Christian Danish Coastal Authority
Paludan, Birgit Greve municipality
Pedersen, Leif Hald Frederikshavn municipality
Rauff, Niels Hedensted municipality
Sorensen, Carlo Danish Coastal Authority
4.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− Danish Government, 2008, Danish strategy for adaptation to a changing climate − Fenger J., 2000, Implications of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) for Denmark, proceedings of SURVAS expert workshop on European vulnerability and adaptation to impacts of accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR), Hamburg, Germany, 19 -21 June 2000 − Fenger J., Buch E., Jakobsen P. R. and Vestergaard P., 2008, Danish attitudes and reactions to the threat of sea-level rise, Journal of Coastal Research no. 24 p. 394-402, West Palm Beach, Florida − GEUS, 2007, Annual report 2006 – Research for a society in change − Hallegatte S., Patmore N., Mestre O., Dumas P., Corfee Morlot J., Herweijer C. and Muir Wood R., 2008, Assessing climate change impacts, Sea Level Rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen − Hedensted Kommune, 2008, Klimasikring af Hedensted Kommune − Lolland Kommune, 2008, Skitse til klimatilpasningsplan for Lolland Kommune − Pickaver A., 2002, Integrated coastal zone management in the Baltic states − The Copenhagen Post, 2008, Higher dikes needed for Copenhagen − www.kyst.dk, Danish Coastal Authority − www.coastalguide.org/icm
Policy Research Corporation - 11 - Country overview and assessment
5. ESTONIA
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Estonia. After detailing the vulnerability of Estonia’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Estonia as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
5.1. VULNERABILITY OF ESTONIA’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Estonia is located in northern Europe, on the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea. The long coastline of 2 549 km is attributable to its numerous peninsulas and bays as well as its many islands, which account for more than half of the entire coastline. Most of the islands are concentrated on the western coast and form the west Estonian archipelago. The country consists of 15 counties, divided into 227 municipalities. The counties which will be discussed in the remainder of the text are highlighted in Figure 5-1 together with an overview of the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones.
Policy Research Corporation - 1 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
Figure 5-1: Overview counties of Estonia and the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones
Tallinn Sillamäe municipality municipality (Harjumaa) (Ida-Virumaa) ea S ic lt a B Hiiumaa Physical and socio-economic indicators Baltic Sea Sea Level Rise Low
Coastline length 2 549 km Saaremaa 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation 10-15%
Coastline subject to erosion 51 km (2%)
GDP in 50 km zone (€ million) 10 646 (66%)
Population in 50 km zone 959 259 (71%) Pärnu municipality (Pärnumaa)
Source: Policy Research based on EEA, 2006, The changing faces of Europe’s coastal areas (for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
The following paragraphs discuss the potential climate change risks for the coastal zones of Estonia and highlight the most vulnerable coastal areas.
a/ Flooding and erosion The coastal areas of south-west Estonia are characterised by many flat low-lying bays which are naturally vulnerable to flooding. The actual threat of coastal flooding due to SLR is however relatively low because the southern coastal zones experience a land-uplift. This acts to safeguard seaside villages in case of a moderate SLR.
Storm surges on the other hand do pose a potential risk, especially for the more inhabited area Pärnu. The greatest destruction of coastal zones in Estonia is associated with stormy periods such as the January storm ‘Gudrun’ in 2005. This storm induced visible changes in the shoreline position in many places. Continuation of the observed trends in climatic conditions (temperature rise in winter, reduction in ice-cover, frequent and strong westerly storms) will intensify the changes in shoreline position even more in the future. The northern coast of Estonia, with the exception of Tallinn and Sillamaë, is generally less vulnerable due to a prominent 30 m high ridge running parallel to the shore which limits the potential damages caused by flooding.
Storminess along the Baltic Sea also induces an increased rate of erosion along the sandy beaches of the Estonian coastline, increasing the vulnerability to flooding.
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b/ Freshwater shortage In Estonia, climate change is not expected to have negative effects with regard to the provision of freshwater because the available groundwater resources can guarantee a sufficient supply of good quality domestic water in all regions. Furthermore, the global warming is expected to have a positive influence on the ecological state of water-bodies in Estonia1.
At present, the main threat to the water quality and availability in Estonia is the agricultural water pollution. During the last 10 years most of the water supply and wastewater collection infrastructures have been updated.
c/ Loss of coastal eco-systems The coastal zones of Estonia are characterised by many flat low-lying bays containing valuable coastal eco-systems such as extensive areas of coastal wetlands.
In Estonia, these vulnerable areas are not protected by means of coastal defences as erosion and coastal flooding are viewed as natural events. In addition, available funds are primarily dedicated to protect economically important infrastructure or residential areas. The common policy to safeguard these areas is to designate them as protected areas2. Overall, Estonia is reluctant to install hard coastal defences unless absolutely necessary because the infrastructure could affect natural coastal processes or alter erosion processes elsewhere.
5.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
In Estonia, responsibilities with regard to coastal defences are not clearly defined and the laws and regulations governing the coastal zones are at present incomplete. Hence, coastal defences are mainly planned by private land owners or municipalities when they feel at risk of a natural disaster.
At national level, the Ministry of Environment and its County Environmental Departments are responsible for the approval of spatial plans. Furthermore, environmental impact assessments must be established for each development project, including coastal defence works. The Water Department of the Ministry of Environment issues water permits for any construction or maintenance work on coastal defences that may affect or disturb water conditions in the locality.
1 For example the ecological state of the Lake Võrtsjärv is highly sensitive to low water levels, thick ice-cover and long ice-cover duration; as weather conditions are predicted to become warmer and wetter with climate change this will have a positive impact on the ecological state of of the lake. 2 The western islands of Estonia have been designated as Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO in 1990.
Policy Research Corporation - 3 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
As concerns the financing of capital coastal protection, project developers or municipalities initiating coastal protection works can apply for funding from the Ministry of Environment subject to the approval of expert committees. National funding may be provided through a variety of means such as the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Environmental Investment Centre (income generated by environmental taxes) or via state budget. Nevertheless, municipalities also frequently provide funding through their own budget. Maintenance of coastal protection budgets occasionally qualifies for support by means of Regional Development Funds, but in practice, municipalities and private bodies finance this activity by themselves.
5.3. RESEARCH INTO ESTONIA’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
No research related to climate change and climate change scenarios could be identified for Estonia, apart from the activities carried out in the context of the Baltic region as a whole such as the ASTRA- project3. Estonia does have a National Environmental Monitoring Programme to examine shoreline dynamics and coastal landscapes as well as the hydrology of the surface water bodies and the Baltic Sea.
The ASTRA-project, which was completed in 2007, aimed to develop regional and local impact scenarios to support climate change adaption strategies. The project also calculated estimates of the cost of adaptation to climate change compared to the cost of inaction. For the Island Saaremaa a detailed coastal zone management plan was set-up in order to determine the best way of protecting the coastal zone. For the municipalities Pärnu and Tallinn, recommendations have been presented on how to protect these areas against violence of the sea. The main recommendation for both areas was to stop constructing long-lasting expensive buildings in low-lying areas until the rate of SLR has been determined more reliably.
The Estonian Geological Survey, a government-owned institution that falls within the responsibility of the Ministry of Environment, was the main Estonian actor involved in ASTRA, together with the Tallinn University, city of Tallinn and city of Pärnu. Besides the participation in European projects, the Estonian Geological Survey is engaged in mineral resources and groundwater research, as well as geological mapping. On the basis of such maps, decisions with regard to environmental protection and regional planning are made.
The National Environmental Monitoring Programme, observing and analysing shoreline dynamics and coastal landscapes, is financed by the Estonian Ministry of Environment. Each year between 8-10 of the 33 coastal monitoring areas are investigated to generate data on the characteristics of coastal
3 www.astra-project.org; project time-frame 2005-2007.
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sediments and the changes in profiles. The cost for this programme is in the range of € 13 000 – € 19 000 annually.
5.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
In Estonia, coastal zones are not systematically managed at the national level. Initiatives in relation to coastal protection are mainly undertaken ad-hoc and foremost initiated by municipalities. Nevertheless, national regulations provide the municipalities with certain guidelines. At present, no national climate change adaptation plans are available or under preparation.
a/ Initiatives at national level The main acts that have been established at the national level to safeguard the natural values of the Estonian coastal zones and to offer indirect protection to any violence of the sea are: − The Water Act; − The Nature Conservation Act; − The Building Act; − The Planning Act.
The Water Act and the Nature Conservation Act establish a coastal zone in which development is not allowed. The width of the strip is 50 metres in urban areas and varies between 100 and 200 metres elsewhere. The Ministry of Environment remains the right to make exceptions and reduce the size of the protected zone when considered necessary and possible.
The Estonian Building Act and the Planning Act, which both came into force in 2003, regulate spatial planning in Estonia. These acts regard zoning and land use planning as the most important tools for the implementation of environmental protection policies. The Planning Act established a planning system on four levels: national planning, county planning, local comprehensive planning and detailed planning. In this regard a few local authorities in Saaremaa have managed to create a comprehensive land use plan for their municipalities and established regulations regarding construction along the coast.
Although above mentioned Estonian acts contribute to limiting the development along the Estonian coast, large areas have a low population density as a result of the Soviet occupation until 1991 which restricted the coastal zones to military zones. Directly after the independence, large parts of the coastal zones were granted a protected status. To date, Estonia has still a lower population density along its coastal zones than other Nordic countries.
Policy Research Corporation - 5 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
b/ Initiatives at sub-national level Coastal defences are planned by private companies or municipalities in Estonia. Furthermore, most coastal protection works do not take long-term climate change forecasts into account as Estonia is still too uncertain with regard to future predictions on the impact of climate change in the Baltic Sea region. The required level of protection is mainly based on historical trends in flooding and erosion.
As case in point coastal protection and climate change adaptation measures taken at Tallinn4, Pärnu, Haapsalu and Sillamäe are illustrated in the following paragraphs.
Tallinn Tallinn, the capital of Estonia, has a coastline of approximately 70 km which is divided into several peninsulas and minor bays at the mouths of different valleys. Within the valleys the coast has a maximum elevation of 3 to 5 m above sea level. These areas are generally densely populated or subject to intense construction activities and at the same time they are extremely vulnerable to storm surges. For Tallinn specifically, long-lasting north-westerly winds and storms are most unfavourable and time series have shown an increase in their strength and duration5.
In response to the EU Flood Directive and the effects of the January 2005 storm, the Tallinn municipality began a series of studies on the identification of areas at risk of coastal flooding and erosion. As a result, Kakumäe peninsular has been identified as an area of high risk to erosion.
In 2006 a preliminary scoping project was undertaken by the Institute of Cybernetics from the Tallinn University of Technology to identify possible coastal defence works for the peninsula. In order to conduct a more in-depth analysis, Tallinn plans to apply for funding from the Environmental Investment Centre. The cost is estimated at € 1.3 million.
Besides these studies, a local beach nourishment project is currently ongoing. In the 1980s sand was taken from inland mines to construct an artificial beach in Tallinn. This beach now requires re-nourishment to continue its role as a popular tourist destination.
Pärnu Pärnu is considered to be one of the most vulnerable municipalities in Estonia. Pärnu is extremely vulnerable to floods caused by south-westerly storms and about 45% of the coastal area is situated at less than 5 m elevation. Floods during strong storms in the previous years have caused considerable economic losses.
4 In Tallinn, also the port authorities were contacted, but besides marine monitoring since 1995, they do not take any specific coastal protection measures. 5 Astra-project, 2007, Towards climate change adaptation in the Baltic Sea region – results of the case studies.
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After the January 2005 storm, the Pärnu municipality planned to construct a dike of 2-3 km long and 2 m high on the shoreline to provide protection from storm surges. However, due to the lack of funding, the project has been abandoned.
Sillamäe Another municipality at great risk in north-eastern Estonia is Sillamäe, where the dumping site of the former uranium enrichment plant is situated. In total 12 million tons of contaminants were deposited6 at the site, presenting a significant environmental threat to both the coastal zone and the Gulf of Finland. Coastal erosion could affect the structural integrity of the waste depository site.
Preliminary coastal defences were constructed in 1997 to protect the highest risk regions from flooding or erosion. In 1998, Estonia applied moreover for financial assistance from the EU and the other Baltic states in order to reduce the environmental risk posed by the site. The project included the complete covering of the site and the construction of a small channel to redirect rainwater directly into the sea and thus mitigating contaminated rainwater infiltration of the depository.
Construction of the long-term coastal defences took place in 2001-2002, including a breakwater of 1 km long and between 4.1 and 4.5 metres in height. Increased vulnerability through climate change was not taken into account for the planning of the coastal defences.
Recent research has shown that additional coastal defences are required in front of Sillamäe town to protect the area from intense erosion. Hard coastal measures which were installed in the past are currently in bad condition and need replacing or repairing to remain effective.
5.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ADAPTATION EXPENDITURE
The coastal protection expenditure in Estonia is very low. Between 1998 and 2007, only € 0.9 million was spent, and € 0.14 million in the year 2008. Also for the future, there are no indications of a significant rise in the coastal protection or adaptation cost. As a result, Estonia will only have spent € 2.7 million over the entire 1998-2015 period.
The capital measures that could be identified are a beach nourishment project in Tallinn in 2006-2008 for a total amount of approximately € 0.12 million, and coastal defences in Sillamäe for a maximum amount of € 1 million in 2001-2002.
6 Dumped material includes uranium and other heavy metals as well as chemical compounds, presenting a significant environmental hazard.
Policy Research Corporation - 7 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
The project cost to reduce the environmental risk of the Sillamaë depository site, carried out in 1998, is estimated at € 20 million. The Estonian government provided € 3 million, € 5 million was provided by the EU Phare programme, with the rest accounted for by other Baltic states and the Nordic Environment Finance Corporation7.
The information on the past, present and future adaptation expenditure is further detailed in Table 5-1.
Table 5-1: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Tallinn INDIRECT Year (scoping study in 2006, Sillamäe TOTAL Ad-hoc national support* EXPENDITURE beach nourishments in (building a breakwater)** 2007-2008) 1998 0.072 0.000 0.005 0.077 1999 0.072 0.000 0.005 0.077 2000 0.078 0.000 0.005 0.083 2001 0.089 0.000 <0.5 0.005 0.594 2002 0.083 0.000 <0.5 0.005 0.588 2003 0.072 0.000 0.005 0.077 2004 0.072 0.000 0.005 0.077 2005 0.105 0.000 0.005 0.110 2006 0.072 0.002 0.005 0.079 2007 0.072 0.060 0.005 0.137 2008 0.080 0.060 0.005 0.145 2009 0.083 0.000 0.005 0.088 2010 0.083 0.000 0.005 0.088 2011 0.083 0.000 0.005 0.088 2012 0.094 0.000 0.005 0.099 2013 0.094 0.000 0.005 0.099 2014 0.094 0.000 0.005 0.099 2015 0.094 0.000 0.005 0.099 1.491 0.122 < 1 TOTAL 0.090 2.703 2.613 * Expenditure provided by Water Department of Estonian Ministry of Environment ** The cost for building the breakwater was about € 1 million, Policy Research estimates that the EU contributed about 25%, the national government about 15% and other Baltic states and the Nordic Environment Finance Corporation about 60% as this was the case for the other works carried out to reduce the environmental risk of the Sillamaë depository site
7 These amounts have not been included in Table 5-1 as they are not related to the protection against flooding and erosion, but to mitigating environmental risks of contaminated rainwater floating into the sea.
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5.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
5.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation
Andresmaa, Eda Department of Development, Ministry of Environment
Altmets, Elle Haapsalu Municipality
Kaasik, Ellen Quality and Environmental Management Department, Port of Tallinn
Kabun, Karit Enterprise Estonia
Kupper, Kristiina Parnu City Government Environmental Management and Technology Department, Ministry of Pruul, Reet Environment Reisner, Rene Water Department of Estonian Ministry of Environment
Teder, Janne Tallinn Municipal Engineering Services Department
Tonisson, Hannes Institute of Technology, Tallinn University
5.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− Astra-project, 2007, Towards climate change adaptation in the Baltic Sea region – results of the case studies − Beckmann A., 2003, Estonia − Haanpää S., Lehtonen S., Peltonen L. and Talockaite E., 2006, Impacts of winter storm Gudrun of 7 – 9th January 2005 and measures taken in Baltic Sea region − Hilpert K., Mannke F., Schmidt-Thomé P., 2007 Towards climate change adaptation in the Baltic Sea region, Geological Survey of Finland, Espoo − Klein J. and Staudt M., 2006, Evaluation of future sea level rise impacts in Parnu, Estonia, Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41, pp. 71-81 − Klein L. Ed., 2008, Estonian nature conservation in 2007, Estonian Environment Information Centre − Kont A., 2000, Implications of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) for Estonia, proceedings of SURVAS expert workshop on European vulnerability and adaptation to impacts of accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR), Hamburg, Germany, 19 -21 June 2000 − Kont A., Jaagus J., Orviku K., Palginõmm V., Ratas U., Rivis R., Suursaar Ü. and Tõnisson H., 2005, The 9 January 2005 storm impact on the Estonian coastal area
Policy Research Corporation - 9 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
− Kont A., Endjarv E., Jaagus J., Lode E., Orviku K., Ratas U., Rivis R., Suursaar Ü., Tõnisson H., 2007, Impact of climate change on Estonian coastal and inland wetlands – a summary with new results, Boreal Environment Research vol. 12 p. 653-671 − Kont A., Jaagus J., Aunap R., Ratas U. and Reimo R., 2008, Implications of sea level rise for Estonia, Journal of Coastal Research vol. 24 p. 423-431 − Orviku K., Tõnisson H., Aps R., Kotta J., Kotta I., Martin G., Suursaar Ü., Tamsalu R., Zalesny V., 2008, Environmental impact of port construction: port of Sillamäe case study (Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea) − Palginomm V., Ratas U. and Kont A., 2007, Increasing human impact on coastal areas of Estonia in recent decades, Journal of Coastal Research vol. 50 p. 114 – 119 − Povilanskas P. et al., 2002, EUROSION case study: Tallinn (Estonia) − Rivis R., Ratas U. and Kont A., 2002, Some implications of coastal processes associated with climate change on Harilaid, Western Estonia, in: Littoral 2002, The Changing Coast. EUROCOAST/EUCC, Porto − Schmidt-Thome P. Ed., 2006a, Sea level change affecting the spatial development of the Baltic Sea region, Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41 − Schmidt-Thome P. Ed., 2006b, The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards in Europe – ESPON 1.3.1, Geological survey of Finland
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6. FINLAND
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Finland. After detailing the vulnerability of Finland’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Finland as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
6.1. VULNERABILITY OF FINLAND’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Finland is bordered on its western and southern shoreline by the Baltic Sea. The western coast lies along the Gulf of Bothnia, separating Finland from Sweden. The southern coast is situated along the Gulf of Finland, separating Finland from Estonia. The total coastline measures more than 14 000 km.
Finland is divided in 20 regions, of which 10 border the Baltic Sea. Figure 6-1 highlights the coastal regions of Finland and provides an overview of the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones.
Policy Research Corporation - 1 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
Figure 6-1: Coastal regions of Finland and an overview of the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones
Lappi Physical and socio-economic indicators Baltic Sea
Pohjois-Pohjanmaa Sea Level Rise Low
Coastline length 14 018 km Keski-Pohjanmaa 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation <5%
Pohjanmaa Coastline subject to erosion 5km (0.04%)
GDP in 50 km zone ( € million) 65 201 (50%)
Population in 50 km zone 2 975 247 (57%)
Satakunta
Ahvenanmaa Kymenlaakso Baltic Sea Varsinais-Suomi Itä-Uusimaa Uusimaa Source: Policy Research based on EEA, 2006, The changing faces of Europe’s coastal areas (for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
The following paragraphs discuss the main climate change risks for the coastal zones of Finland. Overall, the vulnerability of Finland’s coastal zones to climate change can be considered as low. As to flood-risk, the coastline along the Golf of Finland is most exposed, especially during storm surges. Erosion on the other hand is almost absent and also coastal eco-systems and habitats are not considered under immediate threat from climate change. Freshwater shortage might become an issue in flood-prone areas.
a/ Coastal flooding and erosion The two factors that affect the sea level around Finland’s coasts are the rise of the global mean sea level and the land uplift. In the Gulf of Bothnia, on Finland’s western coast, the land uplift will continue to outstrip SLR (Sea Level Rise) according to the most probable scenarios. In the Gulf of
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Finland, however, the rate of land uplift is much slower. This region currently experiences a SLR that is approximately the same as the land uplift rate, but SLR might increase in the future1. The main problem associated with SLR in the Gulf of Finland will be the increased risk of flooding, especially during storm surges2. In 2005, strong winds raised the sea level on Finland’s southern coast by 0.8 m in 8 hours. In Helsinki, the water rose to about 1.5 m above the average sea level. This flood event caused damages of € 15 to 20 million along the Finnish coast.
Four coastal regions situated along the Gulf of Finland can be considered at a higher risk from coastal flooding: Varsinais-Suomi, Uusimaa, Itä-Uusimaa and Kymenlaakso. Moreover, Uusimaa and Itä-Uusimaa house four major cities of Finland namely Helsinki, Espoo, Loviisa and Porvoo.
As tides are almost absent in the Baltic and the Finnish coast is mainly of a rocky and clay nature, coastal erosion is not an issue on the Finnish shoreline.
b/ Freshwater shortage Water stress caused by the salinisation of aquifers is mainly a localised issue and is not considered a national problem, as there are abundant supplies of freshwater with the vast number of inland lakes. Areas where problems can be expected are for example the cities of Porvoo and Hanko, where aquifers are located very close to the current sea level and the majority of water supply is taken from these aquifers. If the sea would rise to a higher level, the salinity of the groundwater could be affected in these areas.
Currently, there is no plan to determine what measures should be taken to prevent salinisation. Nevertheless, the Geological Survey of Finland3 and the Hanko municipality plan to address this in the near future.
c/ Loss of coastal eco-systems The effects of climate change on eco-systems, habitats and biodiversity are to be investigated as part of Finland’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. The strategy states that, if necessary, Finland will change the measures regarding the management and use of protected areas in order to adapt to the impact of climate change. At present, protected areas in low-lying coastal zones are not subject to specific coastal defence measures.
1 As a result of differences in the rate of land uplift, there is not a single estimate of SLR for the Finnish coast; around Helsinki, on the Gulf of Finland, the predicted rise is estimated between -20 cm and 50 cm, whereas in Kemi, on the Golf of Bothnia, the estimates range between -75 cm and -5 cm; source: J. Klein, Geological Survey of Finland. 2 During a storm surge, water is pushed towards the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm; if the wind blows persistently in one direction, a ‘bathtub effect’ can be created in low coastal areas piling water up on one side. 3 The Geological Survey of Finland is a national geological research centre operating under the Ministry of Employment and Economy.
Policy Research Corporation - 3 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
6.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
In Finland, coastal zone management is mainly a sub-national matter. Municipalities and, in the case of private land, private landowners, have to bear the costs of coastal protection measures and obtain permits at the national level. National authorities provide guidelines with respect to land use planning and Regional Environment Centres recommend about minimum construction heights in coastal and other flood-prone areas but it is up to the municipalities to decide whether they include safety margins into their land use plans. Besides the development of spatial plans and building guidelines, coastal protection measures undertaken in Finland are limited.
At national level, the Department of the Built Environment, subordinated to both the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Housing, is responsible for spatial planning issues. In addition, national authorities offer substantial support to climate change research and the development of climate change scenarios.
Regional Environment Centres4, belonging to the state organisation, are responsible for steering land use planning within the Finnish regions as well as for supervising that national guidelines are integrated in regional planning guidelines. These centres are also involved in environmental protection, nature protection and water resources management. Each region is moreover steered by a Regional Council5, which is responsible for the general development and planning in the respective region.
The Finnish Environment Institute is a key operator in protecting species and biotopes.
6.3. RESEARCH INTO FINLAND’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
In Finland, climate change research is much supported by national authorities. National research programmes that include research to climate change exist since 1990 and the first climate change scenarios were prepared one year later. The main actors providing financial support are the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Transport and Communications and the Academy of Finland. Table 6-1 provides a comprehensive overview of the Finnish research programmes, including climate change research, launched to date.
4 Finland has 13 Regional Development Centres, which cover the 20 regions in Finland. 5 Finland’s 20 regions are steered by 19 Regional Councils, the region Åland is a self-governing, autonomous region.
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Table 6-1: National Research Programmes in Finland including climate change research
Period Name Climate related objectives Funding for climate research Increase the knowledge on climate change; increase the participation of Finnish researchers in international 1990-1995 SILMU research programmes; prepare and disseminate € 14.63 million6 information for policy makers on adaptation and mitigation To support research on issues of global change in the 1999-2002 FIGARE7 € 6.77 million natural and social sciences, economics and technology Support the implementation of the National Adaptation 2005-2010 ISTO € 3 million Strategy to Climate Change
Under the FIGARE research programme the most recent Finnish climate scenarios, known as the FINSKEN scenarios were defined. Partners involved were the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR). The FINSKEN scenarios were used to develop the Finnish National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change and included estimates on temperature, precipitation and SLR. The total funding for the development of these scenarios amounted to € 382 000.
Under the ISTO research programme, one project, ‘Climate extremes in present day climate and state- of-the-art projections of climate change (ACCLIM)’ has the objective to develop these scenarios in further detail.
6.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
To date, the planning and implementation of coastal protection measures is the responsibility of the municipalities. Consequently, no national plan for coastal protection exists in Finland. Regions and municipalities develop their spatial plans and implement coastal defence measures in line with the National Land Use and Building Act, the National Land Use Guidelines and the National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change.
6 Calculated by Policy Research based on the information that 12 million FIM was spent in 1990 and on average 15 million FIM per year in the period 1991-1995; converted into euro with the euro fixed conversion rate (1 euro = 5.94573 FIM). 7 FIGARE consisted of 18 research projects and consortia that covered a wide range of topics including climate change and atmospheric research, biodiversity, scenario development, economic and energy aspects and human dimension issues.
Policy Research Corporation - 5 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
a/ Initiatives at national level In Finland, national authorities consider carefully co-ordinated planning as an important tool to meet major land use challenges such as urbanisation as well as potential climate change risks in coastal areas.
The most important legislation to be mentioned with regard to land use, spatial planning and construction in Finland is the Land Use and Building Act, which came into force in 2000. Under this act, a set of long-term National Land Use Guidelines was defined for the first time in Finland, outlining land use in Finland far into the future. The main idea of these guidelines is to ensure that issues of national interest are taken into account in regional and local land use planning as well as to support the implementation of international conventions related to environmental protection, biological diversity and climate change.
In addition, national authorities, under the coordination of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, started in 2003 with the preparation of the National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change. Two years earlier, the Finnish government submitted a government report on the National Climate Strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the Parliament. The Parliament stated in its response that the implementation of the National Energy and Climate Programme could be started but that, in addition, there was a need to formulate a programme for adapting to climate change.
The Finnish National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change, published in 2005, describes the present sensitivity to climate change in 15 sectors including agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, land use, building, tourism and insurance. Furthermore, the strategy outlines immediate (2005-2010), short-term (2010-2030) and long-term (2030-2080) actions to be undertaken, primarily through sector-specific strategies and programmes. The strategy is projected to be implemented between 2006-2015, but no dedicated budget has been foreseen. A mid-term evaluation will determine additional measures based on new insights into the impact and adaptation to climate change.
Although coastal zones are not dealt with explicitly, relevant actions are outlined under the water resources, land use and biodiversity sector analyses. Besides conducting flood-risk mappings of vulnerable areas and infrastructures, land use planning is highlighted as an important preventive measure to reduce flood-risk.
At national level, the main follow-up of the strategy is the creation of the Climate Change Adaptation Research Programme in the autumn of 2006. The aim of the programme is to generate information that could be useful for planning and implementing practical adaptation measures. The programme will be carried out through 16 different projects8 during the period 2006-2010. All 16 projects are
8 Projects funded under the Climate Change Adaptation Research Programme include topics such as forestry, biodiversity, extreme weather events, droughts and floods, urban planning and built environment; www.mmm.fi.
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funded under the Environment Cluster Programme of the Ministry of the Environment as well as by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Ministry of Transport and Communications.
b/ Initiatives at sub-national level In Finland, each municipality is expected to have a preparedness plan which takes into account all kinds of risks and accidents communities may face, including flooding. Climate change is mainly taken into account through the Environment Centre’s recommendations on construction heights which includes the risk of SLR. In addition, the National Adaptation Strategy calls for the incorporation of all possible impacts of climate change into municipal land use plans.
As flood-risk along the Finnish coast constitutes the main climate change risk, the actions undertaken in the 2 regions situated along the Gulf of Finland, namely Uusimaa and Itä-Uusimaa and their municipalities Helsinki, Espoo and Loviisa, are discussed as cases in point.
Uusimaa and Itä-Uusimaa Uusimaa and Itä-Uusimaa are steered by their respective Regional Council and jointly supported by the Uusimaa Regional Development Centre.
The high cost of hard engineering works, the low risk of coastal flooding and the efficient weather warning system existing in Finland, have resulted in the publication of a report9 by the Uusimaa Regional Environment Centre in 2006, outlining potential temporary flood defences that municipalities could use in case of an impending storm event likely to produce extreme flooding. The report evaluates the different measures that can be undertaken, outlines their benefits and provides the associated costs for each10. In the same year, the Uusimaa Regional Development Centre published building height guidelines for construction in flood-prone areas, based on the 2001 IPCC scenarios.
In 2008, the Uusimaa Regional Council prepared a ‘General Flood Map of Coastal Areas of Uusimaa’ as an output of the EU-funded ASTRA-project11. The risk assessment included a general survey of flood-risks mainly in Helsinki and Espoo, as well as numbers of buildings that would be flooded at different flood levels. This allowed the council to identify areas most at risk in the event of rising sea levels. Although the maps only provide a rough picture, they identify the specific areas and locations that need to be examined in further detail.
9 Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2006, Tilapaiset tulvasuojelurakenteet. 10 Temporary measures described include inflatable barriers and bales of paper covered with plastic sheets and light aluminium panels over frames; furthermore trucks which are capable of filling 120-150 sand bags per hour are located within different flood-prone areas. 11 Developing policies and adaptation strategies to climate change in the Baltic Sea region, www.astra-project.org.
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Municipality of Helsinki The city of Helsinki is the largest city in Finland, situated in the Uusimaa region. In 2005 damaging floods occurred where the level of the sea rose 1.5 m above the normal height. In response to this event, the city has prepared recently detailed maps of flood-risk sites, taking into account a 2 m SLR during storm surges. Areas at risk were determined using existing maps, measurements, visits to potential flood zones and information from local residents.
Following the outcome of this mapping exercise, the Committee of Public Works of the City of Helsinki approved a preliminary plan to build 11 barriers on city land along the shoreline, aimed at protecting low-lying areas where flooding would cause significant damage to properties. The areas deemed most at risk are the neighbourhoods of Munkkiniemi, Tammisalo, Laajasalo, Vartiokylä, and Vuosaari, all located within the city of Helsinki. The construction of the barriers will take place over the next ten years12. The walls are only to be built on city land. Homeowners with private properties in low-lying areas that were not assessed as a priority to protect would need to set up their own flood protection.
In addition, the city of Helsinki has a storm forecasting system and sea level is monitored closely.
Municipality of Espoo Espoo, also situated in the Uusimaa region, is with 235 000 inhabitants the second largest city in Finland. Together with the Uusimaa Regional Council, the city’s planning department participated in the EU-funded ASTRA-project in order to receive the most recent results on climate change adaptation and apply them in regional land use planning.
In parallel to the start of the ASTRA-project, the city appointed a dedicated ‘flood group’ to assess flood-risk in Espoo, draw up flood maps, conduct a survey on the liabilities and responsibilities and to propose measures to be adopted in preparation for floods. The results were bundled in a report13 at the end of 2005 and discuss the effects of major storm events, especially flooding, on city planning. The city of Espoo has not yet incorporated the results into definitive building restrictions, but it is used by city planners in their daily work.
12 Construction has already begun in Laajasalo, in the east of the city, and plans are ready for Variokylä; the biggest single dike of 1.3 km in length is planned for both shores of the Vartiokylänlahti bay in the east of the city. 13 City of Espoo, 2005, Tulvaongelma Espoossa (Flood problem in Finland).
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In the Kurtilla area for example, climate change has been considered in the planning process of the area: − Building is not recommended where the ground level is under 2.5 m above sea level; − Housing will be further away from the coastline; − When building on low-land, islands will be built on a ground level of 2.6 m and the lowest floor level will be 3 m; − Extra attention has been given to the location of buildings to prepare against heavy winds.
Municipality of Loviisa Loviisa is a coastal city situated in the Itä-Uusimaa region with a population of 7400 people. The city centre is situated on Loviisa Bay. The municipality of Loviisa was assessed as part of a study on the vulnerability to SLR in the Itä-Uusimaa region in the framework of the EU-funded SEAREG project14 between 2002 and 2005. The study resulted in a rough SLR risk map for Loviisa incorporating 3 different scenarios.
Loviisa, along with other municipalities in Finland, did not budget for SLR in the past. As awareness grows, however, SLR is being incorporated into plans for new buildings. As a result of the January 2005 storm minimum building heights in flood-risk areas were raised to 2.3 m. In 2008, the city of Loviisa prepared more detailed flood maps showing different levels of flood-risk during 1:50, 1:100, 1:200 and 1:500 storm events.
Planning regulations and building restrictions are an important tool for Loviisa to protect its city as funding to protect existing buildings is not widely available. Approximately 400 m of flood protection, mainly dams, were built to protect Loviisa in the 1970s. The city currently plans to build another 300 m of dams with a height of 2.3 m.
6.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE EXPENDITURE
As Finland mainly opts for the integration of climate change adaptation in spatial planning and building regulations, the overall funding for coastal protection is low. In 2008, Finnish national and regional authorities spent about € 1 million to protect the coastal zones against flooding and erosion. The amount entails the construction of sea walls in the city of Helsinki as well as indirect expenditure related to different studies and research projects. Over the period 1998-2015 expenditures to protect the Finnish coasts against flooding and erosion total € 8 million.
14 SEAREG was the predecessor of ASTRA; www.gtk.fi/projects/seareg/CCOP1.htm.
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More detailed information on the adaptation expenditure as well as forecast budgets to protect the Finnish coastal zones from flooding and erosion can be found in Table 6-2.
Table 6-2: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)
EXTRA-ORDINARY CAPITAL EXPENDITURE INDIRECT Year EXPENDITURE TOTAL EXPENDITURE**** Uusimaa* Uusimaa** Itä-Uusimaa*** 1998 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 2000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 2001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 2002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 2003 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2005 0.02 0.00 0.06 0.53 0.61 2006 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.54 2007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.50 2008 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.53 1.03 2009 n.a. 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 2010 n.a. 0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 2011 n.a. 0.50 0.00 0.50 2012 n.a. 0.50 0.00 0.50 2013 n.a. 0.50 0.00 0.50 2014 n.a. 0.50 0.00 0.50 2015 n.a. 0.50 0.00 0.50 TOTAL 0.02 4.00 0.56 3.48 8.06
* Expenditure for building temporary flood protection during the 2005 flooding event ** Expenditure for the construction of 11 barriers in the City of Helsinki, based on the stakeholders’ assumption that 1 barrier will be built per year and will cost about € 0.5 million *** Expenditure to raise the flood wall in the residential area from 1.7 m to 2.3 m in 2005 and the estimated expenditure for the new dams to be build in 2009 **** Expenditure on the development of the FINSKEN scenarios, the ISTO research programme, the participation of the City of Espoo in the ASTRA-project, development of the building height guidelines published in 2006 (€ 20 000 entirely funded by Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry), the ‘Tilapaiset tulvasuojelurakenteet’ report (€ 15 000 entirely funded by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry), the general flood map of coastal areas of Uusimaa (€ 30 000 of which € 20 000 was funded by the Uusimaa Regional Council and € 10 000 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry)
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6.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
6.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation
Bäck, Saara Ministry of Environment
Johansson, Milla Finnish Institute of Marine Research
Klein, Johannes Geological Survey of Finland
Meltaus, Yrjö Technical Services Board, City of Loviisa
Myrberg, Kai Finnish Institute of Marine Research
Orenius, Oskari Itä-Uusimaa Regional Council
Rajala, Jorma City of Helsinki
Rantakokko, Kari Uusimaa Regional Environment Centre
Rissanen, Markku Unit of Rescue Services, Helsinki City Rescue Department
Romppanen Mervi City of Espoo Planning Department
Climate Change Adaptation Research Programme ISTO, Ministry Ruuhela, Reija of Agriculture and Forestry
Dr Schmidt-Thomé, Philipp Geological Survey of Finland Water Resources Management, Ministry of Agriculture and Sierla, Jaako Forestry Tihlman, Tiina Spatial Planning Department, Ministry of Environment
Tynkkynen, Aulis Spatial Planning Department, Ministry of Environment
6.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− COMMIN, 2007, National planning systems overview: Finland − Costa, L., K. Eisenack and J.P.Kropp, 2007, Calculating costs of climate change adaptation-first approaches for the SLR example, Presentation at Final ASTRA Conference: December 10 2007, Espoo, Finland − FCG Suunnittelukeskus Oy, 2007, Tulvakohteiden määritys – esiselvitys − Helsingen Sanomat, 2008, Helsinki to build dykes to protect neighbourhoods from floods
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− Helsingen Sanomat, 2007, Helsinki makes provision for future floods caused by storms − Johansson, M.M., K.K. Kahma, H. Boman and J. Launiainen, 2004, Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast, Boreal Environment Research 9: 153-166 − Kahma K., 2000, Implications of accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) for Finland, proceedings of SURVAS expert workshop on European vulnerability and adaptation to impacts of accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR), Hamburg, Germany, 19 -21 June 2000 − Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2005, Finland’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change − Rupprecht Consult, 2006, Evaluation of integrated coastal zone management in Europe − Schmidt-Thomé, P., 2006, Sea level change and spatial development, Geological Society of Finland Special Paper 41 − Silander, J. et al., 2006, Climate change adaptation for hydrology and water resources, FINADAPT Working Paper 6, Finnish Environmental Institute − Suhonen, V. and K. Rantakokko, 2006, Tilapaiset tulvasuojelurakenteet, Uusimaa Regional Environment Centre, Report 2 − Uusimaa Regional Council, 2008, General flood map of coastal areas of Uusimaa − Virkki H., Kallio H. and Orenius O., 2006, Sea level rise and flood risk assessment in Ita- Uusimaa, Geological Survey of Finland, Special paper 41 − www.gsf.fi/projects/seareg, SEAREG-project − www.gsf.fi/projects/astra/0_home, ASTRA-project − www.mmm.fi, Climate Change Adaptation Research Programme (ISTO) − www.ymparisto.fi/default.asp?contentid=165496&lan=en, FINADAPT
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8. GERMANY
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Germany. After detailing the vulnerability of Germany’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Germany as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
8.1. VULNERABILITY OF GERMANY’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Germany has a coastline of more than 3 500 km along both the North Sea (1 515 km) and the Baltic Sea (2 009 km). Three German states (Länder) have borders with these two seas: Lower Saxony (Niedersachsen) with the North Sea, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with the Baltic Sea and Schleswig- Holstein shares coasts with both seas. In addition, the states Hamburg and Bremen, situated respectively along the River Elbe and Weser, are exposed to the North Sea tides. Figure 8-1 provides an overview of the coastal states of Germany and the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones.
Climate change vulnerability assessments for German coastal zones focus mainly on the increased risk of flooding as this constitutes the main threat for the country’s coastal zones. The following paragraphs discuss the main climate change risks for the coastal zones of Germany.
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Figure 8-1: Coastal states of Germany and their main physical and socio-economic indicators
Mecklenburg- B Vorpommern a Schleswig al Se tic rth Holstein S No ea Bremen Niedersachsen Hamburg
Physical and socio-economic indicators North sea Baltic Sea
Sea Level Rise High Low
Coastline length 1 515 km 2 009 km
10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation 70% 12%
Coastline subject to erosion 226 km (15%) 226 km (11%)
GDP in 50 km zone (€ million) 101 047 (5%)
Population in 50 km zone 5 777 217 (7%)
Source: Policy Research based on Sterr H., 2008, Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to sea-level rise for the coastal zone of Germany, Journal of Coastal Research vol. 24 p. 380-393(for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
a/ Flooding and erosion The expected Sea Level Rise (SLR), the length of the coastline and the considerable number of low- lying areas near the North and Baltic Sea make Germany sensitive to coastal flooding. However, with the exception of the seaport cities, Hamburg and Bremen, the German coastal zones are not heavily populated and most economic activities take place further inland.
The probability of extreme water levels causing flooding is currently significant lower along the Baltic than at the North Sea coast. On the Baltic, more than half of the coast belongs to the so called Bodden-Coast1, making the German Baltic Sea a semi-enclosed sea where tides are quite small and SLR is expected to be modest. Frequency of storm surges along both coasts is comparable, but water level heights related to these storms can be more than two times higher along the North Sea than along the Baltic.
Beach erosion on the other hand, causes serious problems along the Baltic coast. Locally, the retreat of the beach line may reach 40 cm per year. This hampers the tourist use of these beaches and nourishments are very expensive due to the limited availability of sand in the neighbourhood.
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b/ Freshwater shortage Water is not scarce in Germany and public water supply is of good quality. It is estimated that annually only 24% of the available water resources are used. Groundwater is the main source of freshwater supply2.
Currently, no detailed studies are available on the impact of climate change for drinking water supply in Germany. Modelling done by the Federal Environment Agency shows that precipitation patterns will shift both seasonally and regionally by the end of the 21st century. In eastern Germany, which is already dry today, summer precipitation could continue to decline. However, the projection of regional precipitation by climate models comes with large uncertainties. Depending on the model, the scenarios differ sharply from each other. Drinking water extraction could be negatively impacted due to more frequent low water levels and a drop in the water table locally, but in general, no shortages in drinking water are expected.
c/ Loss of coastal eco-systems In Germany, the Wadden Sea3 is one of the most important coastal eco-systems. The area is famous for its rich fauna and flora and the Frisian Islands form a natural flood protection barrier for the mainland. The Wadden Sea area is characterised by barrier islands or high sandbanks at the seaside and tidal flats as well as salt and brackish marshes along the mainland coast. In Germany, most parts of the Wadden Sea area have been declared as national parks4.
Sea Level Rise and increased storminess constitute a substantial risk for the area. Under a modest SLR of 25 cm in 50 years it is expected that most of the tidal systems will be able to adapt by increased sediment re-distribution. However, if the sea level were to rise 50 cm in 50 years the intertidal area might reduce and the Wadden Sea basins could start evolving into coastal lagoons which would substantially alter the natural environment.
Aside from climate change, coastal defence measures used to protect the mainland may threaten Wadden Sea eco-systems. Hard coastal defence measures in combination with accelerated SLR could result in ‘coastal squeeze’ along the North Sea coast, thus threatening important Wadden Sea eco- systems such as salt marshes and the tidal mud flats.
1 Bodden are shallow bays and inlets cut off from the open Baltic Sea by islands, penisulas and narrow spits. 2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006, Climate change in Germany – vulnerability and adaptation of climate sensitive sectors. 3 The Wadden Sea stretches from Den Helder in the Netherlands, passes the river estuaries of Germany to its northern boundary at Skallingen north of Esbjerg in Denmark along a total length of some 500 km. 4 The area consists of three national parks: the national park of Schleswig-Holstein, the national park of Hamburg and the national park of Lower Saxony; the Danish Wadden Sea area will become a natural park in 2009.
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8.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
The organisation and administration of coastal defence in Germany is the sole responsibility of the respective state government. Hence, decision-making for coastal protection does not follow a uniform path across Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Hamburg and Bremen. The federal government can become more involved, but will rarely do so, with the exception of research into the impact of climate change which is mainly supported at federal level.
Capital coastal protection measures are open to co-financing of up to 70% by the federal government, whereas the maintenance of existing structures is financed 100% by the respective state. The involvement and role of the local water boards differs from state to state. In Hamburg, the water boards do not play any role in coastal protection whereas in Schleswig-Holstein, water boards are responsible for regional dikes at the mainland coast of the Baltic Sea and for the second dike line at the North Sea coast and the state dikes are state responsibility. Also in Niedersachsen the state government and water boards work together.
8.3. RESEARCH INTO GERMANY’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
In Germany, marine and coastal climate change research is considerably supported at federal level. Research is conducted in the framework of Germany’s High-Tech Strategy on Climate protection and is mainly carried out by three marine and climate Clusters of Excellence in Bremen, Hamburg and Kiel and in many institutes such as the Alfred-Wegener-Institute fir Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the German High Performance Computing Centre for Climate- and Earth System research (DKRZ), GKSS Research Centre, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), KlimaCampus Hamburg and the University of Bremen. Climate modelling and prognoses methodologies differ however amongst the various institutes. In addition, service institutions like scientific regional climate bureaus or the Climate Service Centre (CSC) have been established in recent years.
The German Coastal Engineering Research Council (KFKI) initiates studies directed towards the prediction of natural phenomena, aiming at the environmentally friendly and sustainable use of coastal and adjacent areas. Within KFKI projects are funded that deal with topics such as sea/dike interaction, probabilistic model approaches to flooding of coastal areas, or the high resolution analysis of tidal water levels.
The different German states decide independently on the research results and climate scenarios they take into account in their Coastal Defence Master Plans. Although many effects of climate change are
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investigated in Germany, Sea Level Rise is the only formal scenario considered in the different Master Plans. Research results on changes in storm surges or wave run-up are considered too premature for use at this stage.
In 2001, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research launched the German Climate Research Programme. Up until 2006, more than 130 projects were financially supported for a total amount of € 37 million in the areas of climate impact research, climate variability, regional studies in the Baltic Sea Area and research to past climates. Within the framework of this programme, the University of Bremen carried out the research project KRIM ‘Climate Change, Preventive Risk and Coastal Protection Management on the German North Sea Coast’. The project focused on the potential impact and risks associated with climate change and promoted the development of proper adaptation measures and management tools. The project ran from 2001 until 2004 with a budget of € 3 million.
In 2006, the Federal Ministry for Environment established under the Federal Environment Agency, KomPass5, a competence centre on global warming and adaptation to climate change. KomPass aims to bundle available climate research results, to educate decision-makers of public administrations and businesses as well as the general public on climate change effects, impacts and adaptations needs.
8.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
At present, no coastal defence, risk reduction or adaptation plans are available at the national level. With the creation of the KomPass competence centre in 2006, the Ministry of Environment announced the development of a national scheme of adaptation to global warming. As to spatial planning regulation, the German states use the 2008 Federal Spatial Planning Act as a legally binding document to establish their own legislative structures and laws6.
At the sub-national level, every German state has its own Coastal Defence Master Plan, except for Lower Saxony and Bremen who drafted their plan jointly and Hamburg who publishes annual Building Programmes instead. Actions to protect the Wadden Sea eco-systems are coordinated by the Wadden Sea Secretariat, but each country (Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands) bears the responsibility for its respective Wadden Sea area.
a/ Coastal Defence Master Plans7 Table 8-1 lists the most recent Master Plans on Coastal Protection in Germany. The reinforcement of dikes to protect against the risk of flooding is the main action undertaken, although authorities are
5 Kompetenzzentrum Klimafolgen und Anpassung. 6 According to the Lower Saxony Dike Law constructions are not allowed in a 50 m buffer zone.
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beginning to realise that maintaining and improving hard defences can become rather costly in the long run. Sea Level Rise has been taken into account by each single state government.
A strategy to overcome the potential ecological impact of hard coastal defences has not been defined in any of the current plans. Nevertheless, states do aim at minimising the impact on nature and the landscape. To this end, environmental impact assessments are carried out. In addition, specific measures to preserve the ecological sites of the Wadden Sea islands such as the dunes and salt marshes have been incorporated in the Master Plan of Schleswig-Holstein and new measures will prevail for Lower Saxony and Bremen by 2009. Furthermore, in Schleswig-Holstein already in 1995, a common salt marsh management plan has been established by coastal protection and nature conservation authorities. The plan explicitly acknowledges the ecological and coastal protection significance of salt marshes and provides sustainable measures to maintain salt marshes.
Although the ecological value of these sites is recognised by the respective states, the Master Plans mostly refer to the importance of their flood protective character as they reduce the impact of waves on the mainland.
Table 8-1: Overview of the German coastal defence plans in relation to climate change
Mecklenburg- Hamburg Master Plan Schleswig-Holstein Lower Saxony, Vorpommern Master and Master Plan Bremen Master Plan Plan Building Programmes
State Schleswig- State Lower Saxony State Mecklenburg- Responsibility level City of Hamburg Holstein State Bremen Vorpommern
Planning period 2001-2015 2007-2025 n.a. 1990-2012
Protection level 1:100 n.a. n.a. 1:400
SLR: 50 cm / SLR: 15-25 cm / Scenarios used SLR: 50 cm / 100 year SLR: 30 cm / 100 year 100 year8 100 year
Protection against Flooding and erosion Flooding and erosion Flooding and erosion Flooding
LS: € 520 million Costs9 € 282 million € 128 million € 600 million Bremen: € 205 million
7 A Master Plan is not legally binding, but a strong self-commitment of the state government who adopts it. 8 By the time the Bremen Master Plan was established, the 2007 IPCC scenarios were not published yet; therefore, the plan initially took 25 cm SLR into account; it was decided to increase the SLR scenario to 50 cm to calculate potential flood peaks; as a result, the estimated amount for the implementation of the plan was increased from € 100 million to € 205 million. 9 Costs are solely related to capital measures, implemented by the respective state over the respective planning period and co-financed by the federal government up to 70%.
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The most recent Schleswig-Holstein Master Plan for Coastal Defence dates from 2001. The main coastal defence measures included in the plan are the strengthening of 110 km of primary dikes, sand nourishments mainly on the beaches of Sylt and Föhr and salt marsh management. Prior to drafting the plan, a safety check was carried out for all primary dikes to verify if the design water level met the basic requirements: − A statistical return period of 1:100; − Not lower than the highest water level observed in the past; − Not lower than the sum of the highest spring tides and the highest observed surge.
In 2007, Lower Saxony and Bremen established their Master Plan jointly for the first time. For both states, the focal points of their coastal protection strategy are the protection against flooding by means of dikes and other hard coastal defences as well as establishing a regional flood warning system. In Lower Saxony, around 125 km of dikes need to be increased and strengthened in the coming years and in Bremen about 55 km. The implementation of these measures is expected to start mid 2009. The plan is focused on coastal defence of the mainland and does not include any measures for the Lower Saxony barrier islands. A separate plan for the Wadden Sea islands is being developed and expected to become published in 2009.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the protection against flood-risk also forms the basis of the Master Plan. The reinforcement of dikes, the replenishment of dunes and construction of other types of flood protection barriers represent 2/3rd of the total protection measures foreseen in the Master Plan. Along the open coast, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern opts for groins, breakwaters and sand nourishments.
The master plan for Hamburg was established in 1990, outlining all actions needed to repair and strengthen the existing dikes by 2012 and to heighten them by on average 1 metre. The master plan as such has never been published. Hamburg publishes annual building programmes instead detailing the works that have to be performed during that specific year. These building programmes concern the public dike lines. The strengthening and maintaining of private dikes is the shared responsibility of private owners and the Hamburg Port Authority. For the period 2013-2035 a new master plan will be established. New dike heights will be defined and the costs will depend on the results of ongoing research as well as the coordination with the neighbouring states Lower Saxony and Schleswig- Holstein. The first proposals may be expected in 2010.
A remarkable city development project in Hamburg illustrating the incorporation of climate change in territorial development is ‘Hafencity Hamburg’, situated between the historic city district and the River Elbe, on the waterside of the main dike line10. As the site is being developed in front of the main
10 The site will increase the size of Hamburg’s city centre with 40% and offers amongst others 5 500 residences for approximately 12 000 people, office and business premises with a potential for more than 40 000 jobs, a concert hall and the International Maritime Museum of Hamburg.
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dike line, flood protection will be provided by means of ground level elevation. Construction sites which are today situated 4.50 to 7.20 m above sea level will be elevated to at least 7.50 metres to comply with the general safety standards for Hamburg. Each elevated site will be connected to the main dike line by special flood-protected roadways, ensuring access for fire brigades and ambulance vehicles at all times. Building’s foundations will serve as ground floor garages, which can be flooded in severe cases. The development of the entire area started in 2000 and will continue until 2020-2025. The project is managed by Hafencity Hamburg GmbH, a 100% subsidiary of the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg and financed as a public-private partnership. The public investment will amount to approximately € 1.3 billion, private contributions are in the range of € 5 to 5.5 billion.
b/ Coastal protection in the Wadden Sea region Since 1978, the responsible ministries of the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany have been working together on the protection and conservation of the Wadden Sea covering management, monitoring and research as well as political matters. Trilateral Governmental Conferences held every 3 to 4 years are the highest decision-making body in the framework of the collaboration. The next conference will take place in Germany in 2010.
Questions regarding climate change, especially SLR, entered the political agenda of the Wadden Sea cooperation in 1997. A trilateral expert group11, the Coastal Protection and Sea Level Group was established to investigate the potential impact of SLR for the Wadden Sea eco-systems and to develop recommendations for coordinated coastal defence and nature protection policies in the Wadden Sea. The results of their work have been detailed in two reports, published respectively in 2001 and 2005. The main recommendations of the group include: − Consider coastal defence and climate change in coastal spatial plans and verify the feasibility of such plan with the support of experts from nature protection, spatial planning and coastal defence; − Apply sand nourishments wherever feasible to combat erosion along sandy coastlines; − Carry out a feasibility and impact study of sand nourishments to balance the sediment deficit of the Wadden Sea tidal basins under increased SLR; − Establish regional salt marsh management plans.
8.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ADAPTATION EXPENDITURE
In Germany, capital coastal protection measures are co-financed up to 70% by the federal government and up to 5 to 10% by the EU, whereas the maintenance of existing structures is financed 100% by the respective state. The total expenditure to protect the German coastal zones against flooding and
11 The members of the group represent coastal and nature protection authorities of Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands.
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erosion amounted to € 134.8 million12 in 2008. Over the entire 1998-2015 period, the total amount to protect the German coasts against flooding and erosion is close to € 2.3 billion.
In Schleswig-Holstein, the total cost foreseen for the Master Plan amounts to € 282 million, out of which € 250 million would be needed to strengthen the primary weirs. The capital expenditure in 2008 amounted to € 18.8 million. In addition, annual maintenance costs and other small measures of € 15 million are anticipated.
For Lower Saxony a total cost of € 520 million is estimated for carrying out the measures proposed in the Master Plan, whereas for Bremen a total cost of € 205 million was estimated. Implementation of these plans is targeted to run from 2009-2025.
For Mecklenburg-Vorpommern about € 130 million has been estimated as total implementation cost for the Master Plan, which was established in 1995. In addition, the plan foresees that the technical planning of all measures will amount to about € 17 million but no completion date has been specified in the Master Plan. For 2008, total capital expenditure reaches € 15 million. The maintenance expenditure has been estimated at € 2 million/year.
In Hamburg, the total implementation cost for the Master Plan is estimated at € 600 million for the period 1990 to 201213. So far, € 475 million has been invested through the implementation of annual building programmes, with € 34.50 million allocated in 2008. Additionally, the annual maintenance expenditure amounted to € 2 million.
A more detailed overview can be found in Table 8-2.
12 The maintenance costs of Bremen and Lower Saxony are not included in this figure as they can not be deducted from the budgets by the respective authorities. Yet, these amounts are thought to be rather limited. 13 In the case of Hamburg, the capital expenditure of the yearly building programmes is financed by the city of Hamburg (70-80%), the federal government (10-20%) and the EU (2-10%).
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Table 8-2: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)
MAINTENANCE AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE HOT-SPOT PROTECTION (Hamburg) Year Mecklenburg- Maintenance Capital expenditure TOTAL Schleswig-Holstein* Lower Saxony** Bremen*** Vorpommern**** expenditure (hard measures)***** 1998 15.00 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 31.20 109.14 1999 15.00 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 37.10 115.04 2000 56.40 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 48.20 167.54 2001 51.60 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 56.20 170.74 2002 49.50 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 49.10 161.54 2003 44.20 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 32.00 139.14 2004 46.00 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 33.40 142.34 2005 47.80 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 41.30 152.04 2006 45.80 44.00 3.50 13.44 2.00 39.20 147.94 2007 51.40 44.00 3.50 17.00 2.00 26.30 144.20 2008 50.80 44.00 3.50 17.00 2.00 34.50 151.80 2009 49.28 30.60 12.05 17.00 2.00 29.50 140.43 2010 49.28 30.60 12.05 17.00 2.00 35.50 146.43 2011 49.28 30.60 12.05 17.00 2.00 35.50 146.43 2012 49.28 30.60 12.05 17.00 2.00 19.30 130.23 2013 49.28 30.60 12.05 17.00 2.00 25.00 135.93 2014 49.28 30.60 12.05 17.00 2.00 25.00 135.93 2015 49.28 30.60 12.05 17.00 2.00 25.00 135.93 818.46 698.20 122.85 273.94 TOTAL 36.00 623.30 2572.75 1913.45 * Yearly maintenance cost of € 15 million; yearly capital measures as of 2000 up to 2008 based on actual figures provided by State Ministry for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Areas Schleswig Holstein; for the period 2009- 2015 figures are based on the average expenditure between 2000-2008; actual figures between 2000-2008 could not be included in the final report anymore but do not influence any of the conclusions; the total expenditure for Germany over the period 1998-2015 used in the final report amounts to € 2.3 billion which is an underestimate of 11 million per year ** Total cost of the 2007 Master Plan is € 520 million, implementation foreseen between 2009-2020; equal distribution per year applied by Policy Research; average expenditure before 2009 estimated at € 44 million per year (indication 2007 Master Plan of 2.2 billion investment between 1955-2006) *** Total cost of the 2007 Master Plan is € 205 million, implementation foreseen between 2009-2025; equal distribution per year applied by Policy Research; the average expenditure before 2009 is estimated at € 3.5 million per year (indication 2007 Master Plan of 2.2 billion investment between 1955-2006) **** Capital expenditure between 1991-2006 is 183 million, future expenditure is estimated at € 15 million; the yearly maintenance cost amounts to € 2 million (1988-2015); proxy provided by Ministry for Construction, Regional Development and Environment Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; equal distribution per year applied by Policy Research ***** Expenditure provided by Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg, Agency for Roads, Bridges and Waters; 2013, 2014 and 2015 is a proxy provided by Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg, Agency for Roads, Bridges and Waters
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8.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
8.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation Lower Saxony Water Management, Coastal Defence and Nature Blum, Holger Conservation Agency Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg, Agency for Roads, Bridges and Buss Thomas , Waters Dr Dachkeit, Achim Federal Environment Agency Ministry for Construction, Regional Development and Environment Goericke, Frank Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg, Agency for Roads, Bridges and Dr Gönnert, Gabriele Waters Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry for Agriculture, Environment and Dr Hofstede, Jacobus Rural Areas Prof Dr Jensen, Jürgen University of Siegen Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg, Agency for Roads, Bridges and Dr Müller, Olaf Waters Dr Schindel, Klaus Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Dr Schirmer, Michael University of Bremen Free and Hanseatic City of Bremen, Ministry/Senator for Building, Wunsch, Jens Environment and Transport, Hydrology and High Water Protection Ministry for Construction, Regional Development and Environment Zarncke, Thomas Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
8.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg, 2006, Information about flood protection in the Hafencity Hamburg, Hamburg − Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg, 2007, Building programme 2007, Hamburg − Freie Hansestadt Bremen, 2003, Hochwasserschutz im Land Bremen − HafenCity Hamburg GmbH, 2008, Hafencity Hamburg projects: insights in the current developments, Hamburg − Hamburg Port Area Development Corporation in cooperation with the Ministry of Urban Development, 2000, Hafencity Hamburg the Masterplan, Hamburg − Hofstede J., 2004, A new coastal defence master plan for Schleswig-Holstein, Coastline reports 1 p. 109-117
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− Ministerium für Bau, Landesentwicklung und Umwelt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, s.d., Generalplan Küsten- und Hochwasserschutz Mecklenburg-Vorpommern − Niedersäschischer Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft, Küsten- und Naturschutz, 2007, Jahresbericht 2006 − Niedersäschischer Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft, 2007, Generalplan Küstenschutz Niedersachsen / Bremen − Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006, Climate change in Germany – vulnerability and adaptation of climate sensitive sectors − Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Areas, 2001, Schleswig-Holstein Master Plan for Coastal Defence − Sterr H., 2000, Implications of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) for Germany, proceedings of SURVAS expert workshop on European vulnerability and adaptation to impacts of accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR), Hamburg, Germany, 19 -21 June 2000 − Sterr H., 2008, Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise for the Coastal Zone of Germany, Journal of Coastal Research vol. 24 (2) p. 280-393 − www.coastalguide.org/icm − www.deklim.de/seiten/dek-frame-en.asp − www.klimu.uni-bremen.de − www.krim.uni-bremen.de/englisch/indexenglisch.html − www.waddensea-secretariat.org − www.wattenmeer-nationalpark.de − http://kfki.baw.de − www.ikzm-oder.de − www.globec.org
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12. LATVIA
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Latvia. After detailing the vulnerability of Latvia’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Latvia as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
12.1. VULNERABILITY OF LATVIA’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Latvia is a country in northern Europe that borders the Baltic Sea with a coastline of 534 km. The country is divided in 26 districts and 7 cities. Figure 12-1 highlights the coastal districts and cities of Latvia that will be discussed in the remainder of the text together with an overview of the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones.
Figure 12-1: Districts and cities of Latvia and overview of main physical and socio-economic indicators of coastal zones
ea ic S Balt Physical and socio-economic indicators Baltic Sea Jūrmala Ventspils Sea Level Rise Low Riga Coastline length 534 km
10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation < 5%
Coastline subject to erosion 175 km (33%) Liepãja GDP in 50 km zone (€ million) 16 306 (72%)
Population in 50 km zone 1 484 290 (64%)
Source: Policy Research based on EEA, 2006, The changing faces of Europe’s coastal areas (for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
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The following paragraphs describe in more detail the vulnerability of Latvia’s coastal zones to the risk of flooding and erosion, freshwater shortage and potential loss of eco-systems.
a/ Flooding and erosion The Latvian shoreline is characterised by erosion patterns, alternated with areas subject to accretion through sediment deposition. Approximately 33% of the coastline is currently subject to erosion1. Storm events such as the January 2005 storm, are projected to aggravate the problem of erosion. Storm surges are also the main cause for coastal flooding in Latvia. As tidal ranges are very limited in the Baltic Sea, flooding due to SLR is rather limited.
Latvia’s vulnerability to coastal erosion and flooding will increase through climate change as the frequency and intensity of storms in the Baltic are predicted to rise. The east coast of the Gulf of Riga, which includes the cities Jūrmala and Riga, currently faces the highest storm surges caused by north or north-westerly winds.
b/ Freshwater shortage Latvia’s natural freshwater supply exceeds current demand. To date, freshwater stress is therefore not an issue for Latvia, at least at national level. Yet, there do exist a few local villages where freshwater supply is not adequate for the local population. Nevertheless, this freshwater shortage can not be solely related to climate change.
c/ Loss of coastal eco-systems In Latvia, until 19912 about 3/4th of the coastal zones was restricted military domain. As a result, natural habitats were protected and construction was restricted along the largest part of the seashore. These restrictions were however removed, following the country’s independence. At present, natural habitats are suffering from both touristic activities and inappropriate management.
During 2002-2006 a project entitled ‘Protection and management of coastal habitats in Latvia’ was carried out by the University of Latvia together with the North Vidzeme Biosphere Reserve and the Liepaja Regional Environmental Board. The aim of the project was to construct management plans for four coastal Natura 2000 sites and construct a database of protection measures that are present in all coastal habitats of European community importance. The final project report highlighted human activity as the main threat to coastal eco-systems. As a result, human activities are now restricted in sensitive and valuable areas.
1 National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management of the Netherlands, 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability. 2 Under the Soviet occupation.
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12.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
In Latvia, it is the responsibility of the municipalities to plan and implement coastal zone management and protection. The state considers that coastal protection is the sole responsibility of the local authorities and at present does not finance any coastal defence actions.
At national level, the Latvian Ministry of Regional Development and Local Government (MRDLG) is involved in spatial planning both at national and regional level. In 2008, MRDLG commenced with the elaboration of a Coastal Zone Development Strategy.
12.3. RESEARCH TO LATVIA’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Research to climate change impacts mainly includes the national geological monitoring programme and the research programme KALME3. Latvia has also participated in international studies, such as the ASTRA-project4, supporting the creation of climate change adaption strategies for the Baltic Sea region.
Scientists from the University of Latvia carry out a coastal monitoring programme being financed by the state that covers 44% of the seashore. Coastal monitoring stations survey coastal geological processes by collecting data on sediment loss and cliff retreat. Data collection takes place annually and after heavy storms. The data is compiled into a comprehensive database of coastal processes which allows for detailed examination of Latvian coastal processes.
In 2006, researchers from different scientific institutes in Latvia initiated the national research programme KALME. KALME aims to investigate how climate change will potentially influence Latvian lakes, rivers, the Baltic Sea coast as well as coastal waters, and to elaborate proposals to adapt to these impacts. The project has identified that governmental institutions and municipalities are aware of the overall potential impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation, which is however not yet reflected in national or regional legislation.
Within the ASTRA-project, which was completed in 2007, the most important climate change risks were assessed for the city of Riga. The study concluded that the key impacts include flooding, storm damage and a rise in the groundwater level. The results of the case study for Riga will be used to support the creation of a Latvian climate change adaptation strategy.
3 KALME stands for ‘Climate change impact on water environment in Latvia’; see also: http://kalme.daba.lv; project time- frame 2006-2009. 4 See also: www.astra-project.org; project time-frame 2005-2007.
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12.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
In Latvia, no climate change adaptation strategy exists to date. A first strategy is due for completion by 2010. Coastal protection measures in Latvia are mainly limited to spatial planning laws and regulations. Some operational actions are undertaken in specific areas at risk of erosion.
a/ Studies, strategies and legislation Latvia is in the process of preparing a National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change, due for completion by early 2010. The Climate and Renewable Energy Department of the Latvian Ministry of Environment is responsible for the preparation of the strategy, which will be developed by two expert working groups: an intergovernmental and a scientific one.
In this respect, the Ministry of Environment prepared a first report including adaptation needs and preliminary policy suggestions, which was accepted by the Latvian government in August 2008. The report details climate change impacts and associated vulnerabilities for various sectors and summarises current adaptation measures implemented in Latvia. A review of national and international research is provided along with international policy initiatives used to adapt to similar vulnerabilities. Specific climate change adaptation measures for Latvia have also been suggested.
In addition, different laws and regulations protect the coastal zones of Latvia and guide the municipalities in spatial planning: − The Law of Protected Belts (1997): defines a strict coastal protection zone of 300 m in which new constructions are prohibited and a zone of up to 5 km inland in which economic activities are only allowed with the permission of local authorities; − The Law on Forests (1999): prohibits the cutting down of trees in the 300 m coastal protection zone, nature reserves and the reserve zones of national parks; − Regulations regarding Territorial Local Government Spatial Planning (2004): require that territories at risk are taken into account when forming Local Government Spatial Plans.
The Latvian Environment Protection Fund supported in the period 2007-2008 a nationwide project undertaken by METRUM Ltd.5 entitled ‘Coastline erosion and coastal area contraction monitoring’. The aim was to examine recent changes in Latvia’s coastline. New maps of Latvia were produced6 allowing the identification of areas suffering from accretion or erosion and the rate of illegal construction works in the 300 m coastal protection zone. Currently, METRUM Ltd. is conducting an erosion assessment for the next 10 years along with the identification of risk areas in which construction has to be restricted. These actions are funded again by the Latvian Environment Protection Fund.
5 A Latvian company involved in land surveying and territorial planning.
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b/ Operational initiatives at sub-national level In Latvia, the main coastal policy followed is ‘limited intervention’ or ‘doing nothing’. In this view, the actions undertaken in areas vulnerable to erosion, one of the most important climate change risks for Latvia, are discussed in the following paragraphs.
Jurmala and Riga In the Gulf of Riga coastal dune maintenance and forest plantations are the principal method for coastal protection. All forests and dunes of the coastal zone are classified as protected and preserved. Coastal defences made of natural materials are preferred in order to maintain the natural dynamics of the coast7.
To protect the port facilities of Riga the main coastal management policy followed is ‘hold the line’. In this respect, a 600 metre concrete revetment and a storm surge barrier protecting the Riga port facilities from erosion were built in the 1960s and have been reconstructed in 1999.
Liepāja The Liepāja waste water treatment works are located 4 km north of Liepāja city. The stretch of coastline in front of the treatment plant is subject to severe erosion. The rate of erosion was estimated to be up to 4 metres in 2002. The problem of erosion is partly caused by the breakwaters and shipping channels of Liepāja port, located to the south of the treatment works, which cut off the long-shore sediment drift8 and result in a sediment deficit in the north.
Temporary coastal defences to counteract the problem of erosion were constructed in the early 1980’s, and consisted of used rubber tyres held in place by wooden stakes. These coastal defences were mostly destroyed in the storms of April 1999 and January 2005. Following the January 2005 storm event, temporary coastal defences were constructed which included a revetment to protect part of the severely eroded dunes in front of the treatment works. Funding was provided by the EU.
Recently, Liepāja started a study to identify and design a long-term solution to the coastal erosion problem. The goal of the study is to collect information on the likely effects of climate change in the Baltic Sea region, especially concerning sea level and storms, and to use this data to predict the future beach position.
6 Maps and a terrain model of Latvia were produced using aerial photography and aerial laser scanning. 7 As an example, sandy material that is dredged from the Lielupe river is strategically used to re-nourish the area in front of the fore-dune. 8 Long-shore sediment drift is the process by which beach material is transported along the coast by the action of waves; when waves approach the coastline, they push beach material up the beach at a certain angle but when the water retreats the material is dragged back at a 90º angle which produces a zig-zag movement of sediment; long-shore sediment drifts cause environment problems as they can decimate beaches by literally washing them away.
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Ventspils Ventspils city is the fifth largest city in Latvia and home to Ventspils port. The port has a significant impact on the erosion processes of the locality as the port’s breakwaters and shipping channels cut off the long-shore sediment drift, creating a sediment deficient zone north of the port. Furthermore the dumping of dredged material from the shipping channels in front of the off-shore exacerbates the sediment deficit. Nevertheless, Ventspils has chosen a ‘do nothing’ policy due to the high costs of protection against erosion and the relatively low economic, cultural and ecological value of the region.
12.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE EXPENDITURE
Coastal protection measures undertaken in Latvia are mainly limited to laws and regulations with respect to spatial planning. As a result, the expenditure to protect the coastal zones against flooding and erosion is negligible.
In 2008, the total expenditure amounted to only € 0.06 million, mainly devoted to soft measures undertaken along the coasts of Riga and Jurmala. The indirect expenditures include the national coastal monitoring programme for erosion processes and the research project undertaken by Metrum Ltd. in the period 2007-2008. Detailed budgetary plans for the period of the next five years are not available, but based on the information received Policy Research does not expect a significant rise in the expenditure in the short-run. The projected amounts for the period up to 2015 are therefore in line with the 2008 expenditure. In total, Latvia spends about € 1.4 billion to protect its coasts from flooding and erosion over the period 1998-2015.
More detailed information can be found in Table 12-1.
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Table 12-1: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)
CAPITAL & MAINTENANCE EXPENDITURE INDIRECT Year TOTAL EXPENDITURE*** Jurmala/Riga* Liepāja** 1998 0.097 0.000 0.009 0.106 1999 0.281 0.000 0.008 0.289 2000 0.050 0.000 0.006 0.055 2001 0.041 0.000 0.004 0.045 2002 0.041 0.000 0.004 0.045 2003 0.041 0.000 0.007 0.048 2004 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2005 0.041 0.210 0.003 0.253 2006 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2007 0.041 0.000 0.073 0.113 2008 0.041 0.000 0.019 0.059 2009 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2010 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2011 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2012 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2013 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2014 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 2015 0.041 0.000 0.003 0.043 1.035 0.210 TOTAL 0.160 1.405 1.245 * For the region of Jurmala and Riga the expenditure includes the annual dredging of sand from the Lielupe river to re-nourish the area in front of the fore-dune as well as the reconstruction of the revetment and storm surge barrier in 1999 for an amount of € 0.2 million ** The expenditure of the region of Liepāja in 2005 includes the construction of temporary coastal defences, the EU provided funding for these temporary coastal defences *** Indirect expenditure for the period 2009-2015 related to the coastal monitoring programme estimated by Policy Research to equal the expenditure in the period 2004-2006 namely € 0.003 million
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12.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
12.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation Climate and Renewable Energy Department, Ministry of the Bruneniece, Leva Environment Berzina, Diana Communication’s Department, Ministry of Finance
Dejus, Sandra Liepajas Udens
Prof Eberhards, Guntis Faculty of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia
Knutina, Rita Environmental Protection Department, Jurmala City Council
Kornijanovs, Normunds Free Port of Ventspils Authority
Liepniece, Dace Environmental Department, Liepaja City Council
Lukstina, Gunta Latvian Association of Regional and Local Governments Spatial Planning Deparrtment, Ministry of Regional Development and Nikodemusa, Alda Local Government Ozola, Dace Department of Nature Protection, Ministry of Environment Water Protection and Industrial Pollution Division of the Environment Svinskis, Janis Department, Riga City Council Višņevskis, Jānis Metrum Ltd.
Zīlniece, Ilga Environmental Department, Ventspils City Council
12.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− Abolina K., 2008, WP7 adaptation of environmental and sector policies to climate change − Eberhards G., Lapinskis J., Saltupe B., 2006, Hurricane Erwin 2005 coastal erosion in Latvia, Baltica, 19, p. 10-19 − Eberhards G., 2008, WP4 Coastal processes − GHK, 2006, Strategic evaluation on environment and risk prevention under structural and cohesion funds for the period 2007-2013: national evaluation report for Latvia − Haanpää S., Lehtonen S., Peltonen L. and Talockaite E., 2006, Impacts of winter storm Gudrun of 7 – 9th January 2005 and measures taken in Baltic Sea Region − Hilpert K., Mannke F. and Schmidt-Thomé P., 2007, Towards Climate Change Adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region, Geological Survey of Finland, Espoo
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− Lapinskis J., 2005, Long-term fluctuations in the volume of beach and foredune deposits along the coast of Latvia, Baltica, 18, p. 38-43 − Ministry of Environment, 2006, Rural Development Programme for Latvia 2007-2013 − Ministry of Finance, 2007, Draft Operational Programme ‘Infrastructure and Services’ − Ministry of Regional Development and Local Governments, 2006, Statement on the progress of implementation of the EC recommendation 2002/413/EC on Integrated Coastal Zone Management − Povilanskas P. et al., 2002, Eurosion case study: Gulf of Riga (Latvia) − Schmidt-Thomé P. Ed., 2006, Sea level change affecting the spatial development of the Baltic Sea region, Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41 − Zīlniece I., Valdmane T., Kraule I., Galindoma S. and Kule L., 2006, Coastal zone management in Ventspils, Coastman case study report − Znotina V., Laime B., Tjarve D., Birziņa R., Kalviškis K., Plikša I. and Nikmane M., 2006, Protection and Management of coastal habitats in Latvia, LIFE02 NAT/LV/008498
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13. LITHUANIA
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Lithuania. After detailing the vulnerability of Lithuania’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Lithuania as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
13.1. VULNERABILITY OF LITHUANIA’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Lithuania is situated on the south-eastern coast of the Baltic Sea. The entire coastline measures 262 km and consists of two different parts: the continental coast and the ‘Curonian Spit’ coast. The Curonian Spit coast forms the southern part of the shoreline and consists of a sandy stretch of land extending 98 km, half of which belongs to Lithuania, the other half to Russia. The width of the peninsula varies from 0.4 km to 3.8 km. The continental coast forms the northern coast and is situated entirely within one county, Klaipeda.
Figure 13-1 presents the coastal areas of Lithuania, including the Klaipeda county with Palanga as the largest beach resort as well as the Curonian Spit and the Curonian Lagoon. Furthermore, an overview is given of the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones.
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Figure 13-1: Coastal areas of Lithuania and their main physical and socio-economic indicators
Physical and socio-economic indicators Baltic Sea a e S c Sea Level Rise Low lti a B Coastline length 262 km Klaipeda Palanga 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation <5% Curonian Spit Coastline subject to erosion 64 km (24%) Curonian Lagoon GDP in 50 km zone (€ million) 3 126 (8%)
Population in 50 km zone 423 503 (12%)
Source: Policy Research based on EEA, 2006, The changing faces of Europe’s coastal areas (for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
The following paragraphs discuss the main climate change risks for the coastal strip of Lithuania. Storm surges pose the greatest threat, especially to the northern part of the Lithuanian coast.
a/ Flooding and erosion The Lithuanian coast suffers intensive erosion due to the natural processes of wind and wave action. In the last decade, the problem has been severely aggravated by human intervention such as the construction of hydro-technical works, deepening of the Klaipeda port and recreational activities.
The Curonian Spit coast mainly consists of sandy dunes. To the north of the Curonian Spit, the continental coast changes into a coastline characterised by an erosion-accretion pattern as cliffs and sand dunes interchange. This part of the coast is exposed the most to strong and frequent storms and erosion. The problem is particularly serious for Lithuania’s largest resort, Palanga, where the beach was almost totally washed away over a period of 5 years.
A succession of severe storms in the last 20 to 30 years seems to have accelerated erosion and coastline recession. Particularly devastating was the hurricane ‘Anatole’ of December 1999 which nearly swept away the beaches along the entire coast of Lithuania. Storm surges are predicted to intensify even further due to the reduction in sea-ice cover during winter and the strengthening of the westerly to south-westerly winds. Consequently, Lithuania is more at risk of flooding due to storm surges than Sea Level Rise (SLR).
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b/ Freshwater shortage At present, Lithuania does not experience any particular problems with respect to the quality or quantity of water. Groundwater, the only source of drinking water in Lithuania, is sufficiently available and generally of good quality. Nevertheless, groundwater as well as surface water bodies, such as wetlands or lakes, are protected through the designation of protection zones. These zones, in which economic activity is restricted, aim to secure sufficient water resources for the future by limiting erosion on the banks of water bodies and protecting the natural landscape.
c/ Loss of coastal eco-systems Salt water intrusion and resulting changes in the coastal eco-systems has been identified as a problem in the north of the Curonian Lagoon1. An important area within this lagoon is the Nemunas river delta which includes important wetlands as well as agricultural land. The Nemunas river delta wetlands are considered globally significant and are therefore protected under the Ramsar Convention2. Furthermore, in 1992 the Nemunas Delta regional park was created to safeguard the delta's wildlife.
The Lithuanian coast surrounding the area of Klaipeda is protected through the creation of the Pajuris regional park. To protect the natural features of the Curonian Spit3 the Kursio Nerija national park was created.
13.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
In Lithuania, responsibilities with regard to coastal protection are shared between national and sub-national authorities. Whereas policies are set out at the national level, operational management is taken care of by the Klaipeda County Head Administration as well as by several municipalities.
The Ministry of Environment is the main national institution involved. The Nature Protection Department of this ministry is responsible for assessing the evolution and natural changes of the Lithuanian coastline and for the formulation of policy recommendations in order to make coastal protection measures more effective. Planning issues are taken care of by the Territorial Planning, Urban Development and Architecture Department.
1 Dailidiene I., Davuliene L., Tilickis B., Stankevicius A., Myrberg K., 2006, Sea level variability at the Lituanian coast of the Baltic Sea, Boreal Environment Research vol. 11 p. 109-121. 2 RAMSAR sites are areas identified in the ‘List of Wetlands of International Importance’ in respect of the Convention on Wetlands signed in Ramsar, Iran in 1971; the sites include amongst others swamps and marshes, lakes and rivers, wet grasslands and peatlands, oases, estuaries, deltas and tidal flats, near-shore marine areas, mangroves and coral reefs. 3 The Curonian Spit was listed as a UNESCO World Heritage site in 2000.
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Financial support is provided by national programmes, such as the Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management of 2003 and EU funds. For the maintenance of protection structures the Klaipeda County Head Administration receives an annual budget from the national government. Maintenance of the coastal dunes and coastal forests on the other hand, is the joint responsibility of local municipalities and administrations of two of the state parks (Kursiu Nerija national park and Pajuris regional park).
13.3. RESEARCH TO LITHUANIA’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
To date, research into climate change vulnerability has been very limited. The only research activity that could be identified is the participation of Lithuania in the EU-funded project ASTRA4.
The ASTRA-project, which was completed in 2007, analysed climate change impacts on the seashore and coastal eco-systems, dune deflation and erosion patterns and provided recommendations for adaptation. For Lithuania specifically, inundation schemes as well as a report indicating high-risk zones were prepared for the city of Klaipeda. The partners involved in this project were the Environmental Centre for Administration and Technology, Vilnius University, the Institute of Geology and Geography and the City of Klaipeda.
13.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
No national climate change adaptation or coastal protection strategy currently exists in Lithuania. Nevertheless, in recent years Strategic Guidelines for the Lithuanian Baltic Sea coast as well as spatial planning regulations and a dedicated law for the coastal strip have been published in reaction to the increasing frequency of storm events. At operational level, the chosen coastal protection measures under the Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management support a limited intervention strategy, aimed at stabilising the coastal zones.
a/ Strategic Guidelines for the Lithuanian Baltic Sea coast Following the devastating hurricane of 1999, the Lithuanian government started to devote more attention to policy development in relation to climate change in coastal areas.
In 2001, the Ministry published Strategic Guidelines for the Lithuanian Baltic Sea Coast to ensure sustainable coastal strip management. These guidelines concern the protected part of the Lithuanian
4 www.astra-project.org; project time-frame 2005-2007.
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coastal strip covering an inland area of 300 metres as well a maritime area of up to 20 metres depth. Their priority is to save the natural landscape and the natural processes of coast formation in Lithuania. Furthermore, the guidelines stipulate that coastal management measures should be implemented in a coordinated manner to ensure that coastal protection actions in one section of the coast do not harm the state of the coastline of a neighbouring section.
b/ Spatial planning Besides the operational actions undertaken under the Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management discussed in the remainder of the text, Lithuania uses spatial planning regulations to protect its coastal zones. This soft coastal protection measure supports the limited intervention strategy Lithuania has opted for. Three laws are worth mentioning in this regard: − Law on Territorial Planning (1995); − Law on Forests (2001); − Law on Coastal Strip (2002).
According to the Law on Territorial Planning, all coastal management issues, including coastal defence, must be integrated into the general physical planning framework. Requirements exist to prepare territorial planning documents for coastal zone management and to assess the environmental impact of the planned solutions. The system in place includes four planning levels: national planning, county planning, local comprehensive planning and ‘detailed’ planning.
In this regard, Klaipeda County Head Administration established the Klaipeda County Master Plan in 2002 which aims to provide clear guidelines for sustainable and integrated development priorities in the county until the year 2020. The plans provided by the municipalities establish more specific land use requirements and obligations and define the primary purposes of certain areas within a local community, town or particular property. They also determine parts of rural areas where detailed planning is mandatory. At present, there exists an approved comprehensive plan for the Klaipeda urban as well as rural municipality and for the Palanga urban municipality.
To fight coastal erosion, all forests and dunes of the coastal zone have been classified as protected and preserved according to the Lithuanian Law on Forests. Furthermore, coastal forests can not be cut down unless they are situated more than 1 km away from the coastline.
One year later, in 2002, the Lithuanian government passed the Law on the Coastal Strip. This law stresses the importance of tuning coastal management to the protection of landscapes and habitats of rare species along the Curonian Spit as well as the continental coast. Furthermore, any new exploitation of underground resources or new construction is forbidden within a coastal strip of at least 100 metres. Only reconstruction of the existing buildings or limited construction of small-scale
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seaside leisure facilities could be allowed, subject to a permit from the Klaipeda governor and approval by the national government.
c/ Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management From an operational point of view, the Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management established in 2003 and revised in 2005 is the main instrument to implement a ‘limited intervention’ coastal protection strategy. The programme is based on the following principles: − Conservation of natural coastal landscapes and coastal processes; − Differentiation of coastal management measures according to specific priorities for coastal conservation; − Monitoring coastal development.
In 2005, the government decided to revise the programme to include the vulnerable Curonian Spit. The responsibility for the implementation of the Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management was designated to the Klaipeda County Head Administration.
Up to 2007, the activities actually carried out under this programme were limited due to a lack of funding. The main actions were undertaken along Palanga and the Curonian Spit and focused on counteracting erosion by means of soft measures, such as beach nourishments with natural materials, as well habitat protection.
Consequently and after the award of European funds, the Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management 2008-2013 was established. With this programme, the Lithuanian government aims to further stabilise the coastline and protect the coastal dunes by means of soft protection measures.
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13.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ADAPTATION EXPENDITURE
As the first Programme for the Lithuanian Coastal Strip Management was only initiated in 2003, the capital expenditure is expected to be very limited in the period before and estimated by Policy Research at less than € 0.05 million. Also in the following years, between 2003 and 2008, only a limited amount of measures has been undertaken due to a lack of funding. For the period 2008-2013 funding has been secured through EU as well as national funds for a total amount of € 5.8 million. Most likely, the majority of this amount will be spent to safeguard the continental coast.
In 2008, the total maintenance and capital expenditure amounted to € 1.64 million. Over the entire 1998-2015 period, Lithuania will have spent about € 10.45 million to coastal protection. More detailed information on the adaptation expenditure and budget forecast for Lithuania can be found in Table 13-1.
Table 13-1: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)
Year MAINTENANCE EXPENDITURE* CAPITAL EXPENDITURE** TOTAL
1998 0.00 <0.05 <0.05 1999 0.03 <0.05 <0.08 2000 0.00 <0.05 <0.05 2001 0.00 <0.05 <0.05 2002 0.00 <0.05 <0.05 2003 0.14 0.04 0.18 2004 0.14 0.28 0.42 2005 0.14 0.00 0.14 2006 0.14 0.36 0.50 2007 0.14 0.00 0.14 2008 0.14 0.96 1.10 2009 0.14 0.96 1.10 2010 0.14 0.96 1.10 2011 0.14 0.96 1.10 2012 0.14 0.96 1.10 2013 0.14 0.96 1.10 2014 0.14 0.96 1.10 2015 0.14 0.96 1.10 TOTAL 1.85 8.62 10.47 * In 1999, € 0.03 million was spent to emergency measures following hurricane Anatole ** Capital expenditure between 1998-2002 has been estimated by Policy Research based on the fact that a first dedicated programme was initiated only in 2003; proxy of capital expenditure for the period 2008-2013 provided by Ministry of Environment and distributed equally over the period concerned (exchange rate used: 1 LITAS=0.289620 €); budget forecast for 2014-2015 depend on the award of EU funding and has therefore been set by Policy Research at the same level as before
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13.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
13.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation
Bitinas, Albertas Lithuanian Geological Survey
Brazauskas, Romualdas Climate Change Department – Ministry of Environment
Gudaitiene-Holiman, Dalia Nature Protection Department – Ministry of Environment
Razinkovas, Arturas Coastal Research & Planning Institute - Klaipeda University
13.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− Astra-project, 2007, Towards climate change adaptation in the Baltic Sea region – results of the case studies − Dailidiene I., Davuliene L., Tilickis B., Stankevicius A., Myrberg K., 2006, Sea level variability at the Lithuanian coast of the Baltic Sea, Boreal Environment Research vol. 11 p. 109-121 − GHK, 2006, Strategic evaluation on environment and risk prevention under structural and cohesion funds for the period 2007-2013: National evaluation report for Lithuania − Grigelis A., 2000, Implications of accelerated sea level rise (ASRL) for Lithuania, proceedings of SURVAS expert workshop on European vulnerability and adaptation to impacts of accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR), Hamburg, Germany, 19 -21 June 2000 − Lietuvos Respublikos aplinkos, s.d., Pajūrio juostos tvarkymo programa 2008 - 2013 m. − Ministry of Environment, s.d., Coastal protective measures for the Lithuanian coastal strip of the Baltic Sea − Povilanskas R. and Urbus A., 2004, National ICZM strategy and initiatives in Lithuania, In: Coastline Reports vol. 2 p. 9-15 − www.am.lt, Resolution of government of the Republic of Lithuania on the approval of the national strategy for the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change until 2012 − www.astra-project.org − www.corpi.ku.lt, Klaipeda University, Coastal Research and Planning Institute − baltic.eucc-d.de/baltic, The Coastal Union Baltic − www.jtc.lt, Ministry of the Environment − www.klaipeda.aps.lt/senasis_puslapis/en/geograf.html, Klaipeda County Head Administration
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15. POLAND
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Poland. After detailing the vulnerability of Poland’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Poland as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
15.1. VULNERABILITY OF POLAND’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Poland is located in Central Europe and borders the Baltic Sea with a coastline of 634 km. The country consists of 16 provinces, which are further sub-divided into counties and municipalities. Three provinces are situated on the coast, namely Pomorski, Zachodniopomorski and Warminsko- Mazurski. Figure 15-1q illustrates the coastal provinces of Poland, highlights the areas that will be discussed in the remainder of the text and provides an overview of the main physical and socio- economic indicators of the coastal zones.
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Figure 15-1: Coastal provinces of Poland and an overview of the main physical and socio- economic indicators of the coastal zones
Sea Baltic Hel Peninsula Open coast Gulf of Gdansk
Odra Lagoon Vistula lagoon
Pomorski Warminso- Physical and socio-economic indicators Baltic Sea Marzurski Sea Level Rise Low Zachodniopomorski Coastline length 634 km
10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation 30%
Coastline subject to erosion 349 km (55%)
GDP in 50 km zone (€ million) 27 223 (7%)
Population in 50 km zone 3 437 155 (9%)
Source: Policy Research based on EEA, 2006, The changing faces of Europe’s coastal areas (for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
The following paragraphs discuss the main climate change risks for Poland’s coastal zones.
a/ Flooding and erosion As the Polish coast is predominantly made up of sandy, low-lying beaches, flooding and erosion pose a natural threat. This is in direct contrast to the northern Baltic coasts of Finland and Sweden which are mainly composed of hard rock. Furthermore it is projected that wind speed in Poland could increase by 10% and might change from south-west to more westerly directions, increasing the potential negative effects of floods caused by storm surges.
An assessment completed in 20051 evaluated the vulnerability of the Polish coastline to Sea Level Rise (SLR) by dividing the coast into three distinct segments: the area located around the mouth of the Odra river in the west, the middle segment and the eastern part of the Polish coast.
The western edge is an economically important area because of its port as well as the large amount of agricultural land. As the area is mainly low-lying, the greatest threat is flooding, especially during storm surges. The middle segment consists of a number of coastal barrier lakes. These coastal barriers
1 Pruszak Z. and Zawadzka E., 2005, Vulnerability of Poland’s Coast to Sea Level Rise, Coastal Engineering Journal, vol. 47 p. 131-155.
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are vulnerable to SLR which could result in erosion and subsequently inundation of the lakes and nearby hinterland. Nevertheless, the risks should be put into perspective as only 4 relatively small cities are located in this coastal segment. The eastern part includes the tri-city agglomeration of Gdansk, two major ports Gdynia and Sopot, and many economic assets of Poland. Furthermore, the ‘Zulawy Polder District’, also called the Vistula delta, is located in this region which makes up 6% of Poland’s agricultural area. This segment was concluded to be the most vulnerable to SLR impacts. In addition, the entire region is subject to local land subsidence.
Another area that needs to be mentioned in this regard is the ‘Hel Peninsula’, a 36 km long sandy spit situated at the western part of the Gulf of Gdansk. The spit is especially vulnerable to erosion. Protecting this ‘hot-spot’ is of strategic importance as the spit serves as a breakwater for part of the Gulf of Gdansk. In addition, the spit influences the overall wave and current regime in the gulf and therefore also the sediment transport along the whole length of the gulf’s coastline.
b/ Freshwater shortage Water stress due to intrusion of brackish Baltic waters into freshwater resources poses a risk for Poland. In the city of Gdansk for example, the most important groundwater recharge areas for water supply are located on a coastal terrace in the Vistula delta, making them exceedingly vulnerable to SLR and flooding. Another threat to the water resources comes from the number of industrial waste sites located near 1 m above mean sea level. Flooding and intrusion into these sites could allow contaminants to spread into shallow aquifers2.
Poland is in the process of preparing a long term adaptation strategy for climate change which will include measures to counteract sea water inundation of water resources.
c/ Loss of coastal eco-systems The coastal zones of Poland comprise many coastal lagoons, coastal barrier lakes and agricultural land which have important natural values. A large proportion of the territory of the Polish coast is protected as a national park or as a Natura 2000 area on the basis of the EU Habitats Directive3.
Additionally, the Polish Spatial Development and Planning Law, the Environmental Law and the Nature Protection Law as well as other related regulations stipulate that all activities in the coastal zones must obtain the consent of the territorially competent Maritime Office.
2 Underground layers of water-bearing permeable rock or unconsolidated materials (gravel, sand, silt or clay) from which groundwater can be usefully extracted. 3 Council Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on nature conservation; the Maritime Offices are responsible for establishing protection plans for the marine Natura 2000 sites.
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15.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
In Poland, coastal protection is the competence of the Ministry of Infrastructure as well as three Maritime Offices4.
Whereas the Ministry of Infrastructure supervises the Long-Term Coastal Protection Programme, the Maritime Offices are responsible for the monitoring and research associated with the programme and for carrying out the specified protection measures. Furthermore, the Maritime Offices have a say on land development and spatial management within the coastal zone, which can be defined as anywhere from 110 m to 3 km inland depending on the type of hinterland. No construction permits can be handed out for this area without the relevant Maritime Office’s consent.
As to funding, coastal protection investments (including artificial nourishments) as well as the related monitoring and research are covered by the state budget. The maintenance cost is covered by the annual budget of the Maritime Offices, which is attributed by the state. Municipalities can contribute to coastal protection projects with their own funds but implementation remains the responsibility of the Maritime Offices.
15.3. RESEARCH INTO POLAND’S VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Continuous monitoring of changes in the coastline is currently performed by the Maritime Offices. Additionally, research on the vulnerability of the coast and coastal processes is conducted by universities, specialised academic centres and national research institutes. Research with regard to climate change scenarios has been carried out during the development of the Long-Term Coastal Protection Strategy.
The Maritime Institute in Gdansk performed research to climate change scenarios for Poland during the development of the Polish Long-Term Coastal Protection Strategy in the period 1998-2000. The research was funded by the state. The IPCC scenarios were used as a basis but were adapted in order to take account of regional attributes of the entire Baltic as well as the Polish coastline. Consequently three scenarios have been established: an ‘optimistic’ scenario with 0.3 m SLR in 100 years; a ‘most probable’ scenario with 0.6 m SLR in 100 years and a ‘pessimistic’ scenario with 1 m SLR in 100 years. Projections regarding wind indicate that wind speed may increase by 10% and that the direction may change from south-west to more westerly directions. Furthermore, the Maritime Institute
4 Maritime Offices are special regional agencies of the Ministry of Infrastructure; these offices are independent of the provinces and their territorial competence does not coincide with the boundaries of the provinces.
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performs research to the evolution of the coast, the biological aspects of climate change in the coastal zones as well as to maritime and coastal spatial planning. In this regard the Maritime Institute works closely together with the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Maritime offices.
Furthermore, the Hydro-engineering Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, a scientific institution mainly financed by the state through the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, was involved in the SURVAS-project5. As part of this project the value of dry land and infrastructure at risk of flooding from a 1 m SLR in Poland was estimated at $ 18 million. The capital cost for full protection under the same scenario was estimated at $ 6.1 billion and the maintenance cost was estimated at an additional $ 30 million. Besides taking part in international studies the Hydro- engineering Institute conducts mainly research on the evolution of the Polish coastline.
In addition, the Polish Geological Institute Gdansk, the city of Gdansk and the Regional Board of Water Management were involved in the EU-funded ASTRA-project6. A case study for Gdansk assessed climate change impacts on the wider urban area and revealed that the strongest impact would occur on its beaches and agricultural land. Moreover, the study indicated that flooding and erosion could cause problems for the water supply system since groundwater resources of great importance for the city are located in low-lying, potentially endangered areas. Nevertheless, Gdansk has proven to be one of the best protected cities in Poland with a network of protection structures consisting of dikes, sluices, pumping stations and storage reservoirs. The results of the study provide a tool for further analysis and support the integration of climate change and flood protection aspects into planning and decision-making in Gdansk.
15.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
In Poland, most coastal protection measures derive from Long-Term Coastal Protection Strategies, which fall under the responsibility of the Maritime Offices and are funded by the state. Nevertheless, local municipalities occasionally initiate coastal protection projects financed from their own budgets. A case in point is the project on the protection of the church ruins in the municipality of Rewal.
a/ Long-Term Coastal Protection Strategies The first Polish Long-Term Strategy for Coastal Protection and Maintenance of Beaches was developed already in 1985. Funding to implement the strategy was made available on an annual basis and coastal protection works were undertaken in regions considered at the highest risk from flooding
5 Reference: www.survas.mdx.ac.uk; project time-frame 2000-2001. 6 Reference: www.astra-project.org; project time-frame 2005-2007.
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and erosion. However, up to 2003, only limited funding had been made available for coastal protection.
In 2000 a new Polish Long-Term Coastal Protection Strategy was drafted and came into force in 20037. The main objectives of the current strategy are to: − Maintain the position of the shoreline as it was in 2000 along 30% of the coast8, for the rest apply managed retreat; − Assign a safety level to each segment of the coast in local plans; − Control development in the coastal zone to avoid ‘coastal squeeze’ and to ensure that the level of development and the level of safety provided are consistent with each other; − Take into account climate change; − Use soft measures as much as possible.
In contrast with the previous strategy, the current one is supplemented with an operational programme for the period up to 2050 and a vision until 2100, indicating locations that have high risks from flooding or erosion. This programme has been adopted by the Polish Parliament securing an overall budget for the period 2005-2023 for technical measures as well as the necessary monitoring and research. The amount allocated in each year is still to be determined and approved on an annual basis. About 5% of the total funding is foreseen for hard measures (e.g. modernisation or erection of coastal structures), about 65% for mixed measures (e.g. combination of artificial beach fills and erection or modernisation of coastal structures) and about 30% for artificial beach fills. The areas that are put forward for protection under the programme are parts of the Vistula Lagoon and Gulf of Gdansk, the Hel Peninsula, selected sites along the Open Coast and parts of the Odra Lagoon9.
b/ Municipality of Rewal The municipality of Rewal, situated in the northern part of the Zachoniopomorski province, is famous for its ruins of a 13th century church. The area where the church is located illustrates the advancement of coastal erosion. The church was initially thought to be located about 2 km from the shoreline but today much of it has collapsed, most likely due to erosion of the cliff it stands on.
The commune of Rewal therefore participated in the EU-funded MESSINA-project10 in which the rate of erosion has been assessed and the socio-economic implications of several different solutions have been examined (doing nothing, protecting the ruins or moving the ruins to another site). The solution
7 This new strategy adopted the IPCC scenarios but slightly modified them, to take account of the specificities of the Baltic Sea and the Polish coastline. 8 The Long-Term Coastal Protection Strategy does not indicate where this 30% is located. We can however expect that the shoreline will be maintained in the locations put foward for protection under the programme which are dispersed through the entire coastline. 9 These locations have been highlighted in Figure 15-1. 10 Reference: www.interreg-messina.org; project time-frame 2003-2007.
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that was selected was to protect the ruins using a variety of methods. The ruins were anchored in the ground and a sea wall was constructed at the foot of the cliff. The cost for this project was mostly covered by the local authorities of the Rewal commune with a small amount coming from the Maritime Office of Szczecin.
15.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ADAPTATION EXPENDITURE
Up to 2003 funding for coastal protection was made available on an annual basis. For the period 2004-2023 a Long-Term Coastal Protection Strategy has been developed for which € 249 million has been secured. The average annual amount allocated for the period 2004-2008 is € 7.5 million. The annual amount for the period 2009-2015 still needs to be determined, however it was decided that at least € 7.4 million will be spent each year. As a result, over the period 1998-2015, measures to protect the Polish coasts against flooding and erosion and adapt to increased storminess and SLR amount to a total of at least € 118 million.
In 2008, the coastal protection expenditure amounted to € 7.5 million. This amount is entirely financed by the state under the operational programme of the Long-Term Protection Strategy.
More detailed information can be found in Table 15-1.
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Table 15-1: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)11
MAINTENANCE HOT-SPOT PROTECTION Year CAPITAL EXPENDITURE* TOTAL EXPENDITURE Rewal Commune**
1998 n.a. 5.50 5.50 1999 n.a. 5.50 5.50 2000 n.a. 5.50 5.50 2001 n.a. 5.50 5.50 2002 n.a. 3.60 3.60 2003 n.a. 2.70 2.70 2004 n.a. 7.50 7.50 2005 n.a. 7.50 0.72 8.22 2006 n.a. 7.50 7.50 2007 n.a. 7.50 7.50 2008 n.a. 7.50 7.50 2009 n.a. 7.40 7.40 2010 n.a. 7.40 7.40 2011 n.a. 7.40 7.40 2012 n.a. 7.40 7.40 2013 n.a. 7.40 7.40 2014 n.a. 7.40 7.40 2015 n.a. 7.40 7.40 TOTAL n.a. 117.60 0.72 118.32 * Expenditure for the period 1998-2008 provided by the Ministry of Infrastructure; expenditure for the period 2009-2015 still needs to be determined by the Ministry, however it was decided that at least € 7.4 million will be spent each year ** Estimate provided by the University of Szczecin
15.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
15.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation
Cieślak, Andrej Maritime Office in Gdynia
Rozynsky, Grzegorz Institute of Hydro-engineering, Polish Academy of Sciences Senior Scientist and leader of SEAREG and ASTRA projects, Dr Schmidt-Thomé, Philip Geological Survey of Finland Prof Dr Zurek Janusz University of Gdansk
11 The expenditures were calculated using the average conversion rate for 2008 (1 PLN=0.28952 EUR).
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15.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− Cieślak A., 2006, Flood and erosion risk and decision making in the coastal zone in conditions of climate change, Second international ASTRA conference "Climate change adaptation and flood risks in coastal areas" October 26-28, 2006, Polish Geological Institute (PGI), Gdansk, Poland − Cieślak A. 2007a, Existing and planned strategies and actions connected with coastal protection in aspect of predicted Sea Level Rise (project internal paper) − Cieślak A., 2007b, On coastal protection in Poland and some remarks on the Lithuanian approach − Furmanczyk K., 2004, Eurosion case study: Hel Peninsula − Furmanczyk K., 2004, Eurosion case study: Western coast of Poland − Kaulbarszd D., Kordalski Z., Jeglinski W., 2006, Poland: the Gdansk case study − Ministry of Environment, 2006, Republic of Poland: Fourth national communication to the conference of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, POL/COM/4 B − Polish Republic, 1991, Act concerning the maritime zones of the Polish republic and the marine administration, Legislative Gazette of the Polish Republic, No 32, Warsaw − Pruszak Z. and Zawadzka E., 2005, Vulnerability of Poland’s coast to Sea Level Rise, Coastal Engineering Journal, vol. 47: 2/3: 131-155 − Rozynsky, Grzegorz, 2007, Policy-in Poland: act of parliament of republic of Poland of 28th March 2003 on establishment of long term ‘coastal protection program’ (Statute Book of 18th Apr. 2003), ENCORA Coastal Wiki Online − Sadowski M., 2007, An approach to adaptation to climate changes in Poland − Staudt M., Kordalksi Z. and Zmuda J., 2006, Assessment of modelled sea level rise impacts in the Gdansk region, Poland, In: Sea level change affecting spatial development of the Baltic Sea region, Schmidt-Thome, P. ed. Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41: p. 121-130 − www.survas.mdx.ac.uk, Survas project
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20. SWEDEN
This country fiche provides a comprehensive overview and assessment of climate change adaptation in Sweden. After detailing the vulnerability of Sweden’s coastal zones, the responsibility and financing for coastal protection is explained. Next, the fiche presents the relevant research activities, the coastal defence, risk reduction and adaptation plans available in Sweden as well as the current and future protection and adaptation expenditure. The persons contacted and sources of information used are listed at the end.
20.1. VULNERABILITY OF SWEDEN’S COASTAL ZONES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Sweden is located on the Baltic Sea and has a coastline of more than 13 500 km long. The country is divided into 21 counties. The coastal counties which will be discussed in the remainder of the text are illustrated in Figure 20-1 together with an overview of the main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones.
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Figure 20-1: Coastal counties of Sweden mostly affected by coastal erosion and flooding and overview main physical and socio-economic indicators of the coastal zones
Physical and socio-economic indicators Baltic Sea
Sea Level Rise Medium
Coastline length 13 567 km
10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation 0%
Coastline subject to erosion 327km (2%)
Västra GDP in 50 km zone (€ million) 119 904 (52%) Götaland Population in 50 km zone 6 282 969 (70%)
Halland
B a lt ic S Blekinge ea Skåne Source: Policy Research based on EEA, 2006, The changing faces of Europe’s coastal areas (for Sea Level Rise and 10 km coastal zone below 5 metres elevation); European Commission (Eurosion study), 2004, Living with coastal erosion in Europe: Sediment and space for sustainability (for coastline length and coastline subject to erosion); Eurostat 2004 (for GDP and population in 50 km zone)
The following paragraphs discuss the main climate change risks for the Swedish coastal zones. Marine eco-systems along the Baltic Sea are expected to be most affected by rising temperatures and changes in precipitation1. In addition, coastal erosion and rising sea levels may threaten southern areas. Few studies are yet made on the western coasts Although there might be considerable consequences for freshwater supply in the long-run, especially with regard to the water quality, Sweden will be affected far less than other European countries.
a/ Flooding and erosion Rising sea levels are expected to aggravate coastal erosion problems in southern Sweden and increase flood risk along the western and southern coasts. Rocky northern Sweden is less prone to flooding and erosion as a rise in sea level will be counteracted by a land lift-up.
Examples of areas most affected by increased flood risk are the municipalities located in Skåne county and Göteborg located in Västra Götaland. The counties most at risk to coastal erosion are Skåne, Blekinge and Halland.
1 Precipitation will increase in winter and autumn and summers are expected to be warmer and drier, particularly in southern Sweden (cf. Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability, 2007, Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities).
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b/ Freshwater shortage Sweden is favoured in its access to freshwater supply. Up to now, it has been relatively easy to find good quality water resources. Half of Sweden’s local water supply comes from surface water, mainly lakes and watercourses, the other half from groundwater. Furthermore, the good quality of raw water makes purification techniques relatively simple in Sweden. Although climate change might influence the conditions of water supply, e.g. an increased risk of humus or chemical pollutants entering water sources due to flooding or flash storms, drinking water is expected to remain sufficiently available.
c/ Loss of marine eco-systems The Baltic Sea is a semi-enclosed sea with many river inflows and limited water refreshment from the ocean. The salinity level is low, decreasing from south to north. This is not a problem per se. The Baltic Sea has a rather unique eco-system adapted to low salinity levels but rising temperature and increased precipitation may further reduce the salt level of the water and put additional pressure on marine eco-systems.
In 2007 the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Sweden) agreed on the Baltic Sea Action Plan. This programme aims to restore the good ecological status of the Baltic marine environment by 2021. The strategy is seen as a crucial starting point for wider and more efficient actions to combat the continuing deterioration of the marine environment resulting in the first instance from human activities. The main objectives are: − To intensify measures that ensure a water quality sufficient to maintain or recover the functioning of the marine eco-systems; − To reduce emissions from maritime transport and to prevent ballast water releases; − To enhance the protection of marine and coastal landscapes and habitats and, particularly, the conservation of native Baltic species.
The Baltic Sea Action Plan was initiated by HELCOM, the governing body of the Helsinki Convention. With the Action Plan, HELCOM aims to improve the capacity of the Baltic marine environment to cope with the stress of climate change.
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20.2. RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCING FOR COASTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION
In Sweden, coastal zone management is mainly a sub-national matter. National authorities have only a limited role in coastal defence since spatial planning falls under the responsibilities of the respective municipalities2 and coastal protection works need to be initiated and financed by landowners3. In practice, when the property of a private landowner is at risk of a natural disaster, the municipality can verify which other surrounding landowners are affected and may act as the coordinator of the coastal protection works. Municipalities might bear (part of) the costs4 and can apply for financial support from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). With the exception of erosion, this agency may grant co-financing for all preventive measures against flooding and other natural disasters up to 80%. MSB grants are only available for existing built-up zones. New development projects are expected to take certain safety margins into account. For the period 2007-2009, the MSB has an annual budget of about € 4.3 million, whereas yearly applications are in the range of € 10-12 million. Besides the MSB fund, municipalities can use local taxes5 to finance coastal protection works.
At the national level, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish Housing Authority are mostly concerned with coastal protection. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for biodiversity and maritime preservation. In addition, the agency evaluates defence and protection works undertaken at the sub-national level and reports to the government. The Swedish Housing Authority is responsible to provide the municipalities with national guidelines concerning housing and spatial planning.
20.3. RESEARCH INTO SWEDEN’S VULNERABILITY AND TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
Sweden has already performed profound research into the vulnerability of its coastal areas. Knowledge on how climate change will affect different sectors from an economic point of view and which adaptation measures should be taken is still limited. The research institutes most involved so far are the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI). Both institutes supported the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability in developing the national report ‘Sweden facing climate change – Threats and opportunities’, published in autumn 2007.
2 Sweden has 290 municipalities of which 82 are situated along the coast. 3 Landowners can be private proprietors or municipalities. 4 When granting building permits, the municipality has to examine the risks with respect to health and safety of the residents; the municipality is responsible for its decision up to 10 years after granting such permit. 5 Municipalities receive 20% of the income tax levied to their inhabitants.
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The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is a government agency under the Ministry of Environment. The agency develops information on weather, water and climate to provide public as well as private actors with an important foundation for decision-making. More specifically the SMHI, and especially its Rossby Centre research unit, undertakes research into climate models and scenarios. Overall, funding for climate change research at the SMHI is estimated at € 2.5 million per year.
The Swedish Geotechnical Institute has a coordinative role in reducing the risks of coastal erosion and damage caused by such erosion. SGI has in particular responsibility as a governmental expert body for safety issues relating to landslides and coastal erosion. The institute carries out inventories of the eroding coasts as well as the areas most vulnerable to erosion.
20.4. COASTAL DEFENCE, RISK REDUCTION AND ADAPTATION PLANS IN RELATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
As coastal protection is the responsibility of the municipalities and landowners, no national coastal defence plan exists in Sweden. The Swedish government foresees in the publication of a national climate change adaptation strategy by 20096.
At present, the government supports the municipalities in their coastal defence activities providing general guidelines, laws and vulnerability studies such as the Nature and Conservation Act and the national study ‘Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities’.
a/ Initiatives at national level As in most Scandinavian countries, coastal protection policy in Sweden is mainly focused on spatial planning. The Nature Conservation Act of 1974 defines that the first 100 m to 300 m of the coast needs to be free of exploitation. Spatial plans of the different municipalities need to comply with this Act. In addition, new development projects have to take a certain safety margin into account to protect against future erosion or higher water levels. In 2007, just over 40 municipalities (mainly inland) had taken account of climate change in one way or the other. Mostly the expected higher water levels in watercourses or the sea were incorporated in their land use plans.
In October 2007 the national study ‘Sweden facing climate change – Threats and opportunities’ was published. A special commission, the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability, was appointed by the Swedish national government to carry out this two-year investigation. This Commission has analysed how Sweden’s climate may develop over the next hundred years and has
6 At present, the Swedish government heavily invests in climate and energy; for the period 2008-2010 further initiatives of more than € 100 million have been proposed including climate research, energy efficiency measures, pilot projects and networks; another € 45 million is reserved specifically for energy efficiency measures.
Policy Research Corporation - 5 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
analysed the consequences for a number of sectors and areas. An important aspect that has been investigated is the vulnerability to flooding, landslides and erosion. The budget amounted to € 2.14 million of which the Swedish national government funded 60%. The remaining part was financed by different authorities and organisations from their proper working budgets.
A few Sea Level Rise scenarios were studied. For example, based on a global SLR of 88 cm, the study estimates the affected coastal zones at 100 m, 65 m and 30 m inland, respectively moving from south to north7. Without additional protection measures, the total cost of coastal erosion and coastal flooding between 2010 and 2100 approximates to € 40 billion. The total cost of coastal protection until 2100 is estimated between € 289-578 million.
The Commission’s recommendations to reduce the vulnerability of Sweden’s coasts and adapt society to long-term climate change and extreme weather events include: − Spatial planning should be considered as the most important tool to protect against violence from the sea; − Investigation of risks of coastal erosion in built-up areas, compilation and evaluation of bathymetric8 information and expansion of extreme weather warning systems; − Compensation and subsidy systems for preventive measures for coastal erosion in built-up areas; − Areas of the coastal zones without private or public interests should not be protected but given back to the sea; − Sweden should press for measures at EU level that reduce the vulnerability of the Baltic Sea in a changed climate.
Based on the recommendations of the climate change study, Sweden is developing a national climate change adaptation strategy, expected to be published in the course of 2009.
b/ Climate change adaptation from a sub-national perspective Sweden has 290 municipalities, of which 82 are situated along the coast. Three coastal municipalities very vulnerable to climate change in terms of flooding, erosion and extreme weather events, have been selected as case in point.
Kristianstad The municipality of Kristianstad is situated on the south coast of Sweden in the Skåne county. Kristianstad is at risk of both flooding and erosion. Most parts of the municipality are situated only a
7 The Rossby Centre calculated that a global Sea Level Rise of 88 cm would result in around 80 cm SLR in southern Sweden, 50 cm SLR in the central region and 20 cm SLR in northern Sweden. 8 Bathymetry is the measurement of the depth of oceans, seas or other large bodies of water.
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few metres above sea level. Large parts of the city itself, situated 20 km from the coast, are situated below sea level.
In autumn 2008, the municipality began with the development of a master plan for adaptation to climate change. The plan is expected to be finalised by mid 2009. Input is mainly drawn from dedicated seminars. Up to now, Kristianstad has dealt with coastal protection through spatial planning and the use of ad-hoc measures. Building restrictions, based on a series of measurements and investigations, exist for certain areas along the coast. A SLR of 0.77 cm by 2100 is taken into account in spatial planning.
In addition, new protective dikes (over a length of about 10 km) and six water pumping stations are planned at a total cost of about € 20 million. After a close call in early 2002, the construction started in 2003 and will continue until 2012. Additionally there is a small pilot project ongoing to protect the sand dunes by utilising nets made of coconut fibres.
Kristianstad has a flood warning system called Flood Watch Kristianstad. The system was initiated in the mid 1990s and came into operation in the beginning of 2007. The total cost is estimated at € 75 000 and ongoing system improvements are valued at € 20 000. The annual operational cost will be around € 5 000.
Ystad The Ystad municipality located in the Skåne county has been actively fighting against coastal erosion since the 1980s. Information and knowledge have been acquired through research, pilot projects and investigations and many different protection measures have been taken since then. Four different areas within the municipality are severely affected. These areas are protected with groins, small scale beach nourishments, revetments, breakwaters and transplanted vegetation. In some of them land use is restricted.
Besides erosion also flood-risk and increased groundwater levels are expected to aggravate in the future. To address this, the local government agreed on a Policy for the management and protection of the coast in September 2008.
The main objectives of the plan are to protect against the loss of valuable land and infrastructure, to protect areas adjacent to the coast from flooding and to preserve the extent and width of the beach. As the basic position of Ystad is to safeguard the natural dynamics of the coast, the implementation of the plan should respect the following principles: − Coastal protective measures or projects will be subject to risk, cost-benefit, and environmental impact assessments: in areas where existing built-up zones or infrastructures are threatened by coastal erosion, relocation shall be evaluated based on socio-economic assessments, soft measures
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will be evaluated as second option and new hard coastal protection measures shall only be considered after other alternatives have been evaluated and found less appropriate; − Physical planning shall anticipate climate change: exploitation shall be avoided in vulnerable areas, areas where erosion may be accepted will be identified and in the planning of new and existing settlements, considerations shall be taken with respect to the climate effects on groundwater levels. To serve as an effective guidance tool, the Policy for the management and protection of the coast will be regularly updated on the basis of research and studies. An action and maintenance plan with a ten-year perspective will be established and reviewed every two years. The first plans, together with a specific budget, are expected for Spring 2009. Ystad will try to engage the national authorities to take over part of the financing.
Göteborg Göteborg, located in the Västra Götaland county, recognised the need to adapt to climate change for the first time in September 2003 when the City Council adopted a local water plan. Different departments as well as NGO’s worked together to propose measures on how to: − Sustain groundwater levels; − Reduce discharge of pollutants to water sources; − Increase conditions for biodiversity; − Preserve and create water environments for activities and recreation; − Reduce the risk of flooding in residential areas.
With regard to climate change, the plan included a proposal to raise the lowest level for buildings by 50 cm in order to be prepared for SLR. Furthermore a study on the effect of increased precipitation on the sewage system as well as a storm water management plan has been recommended.
As a follow-up, Göteborg created a risk map of the low-lying areas which need to be carefully observed with regard to SLR. The minimum expected foundation levels have been raised and a crisis and disaster coordination group has been set-up to investigate all water levels across the municipality but SLR is not yet monitored. The municipality does not protect the coast with any other specific hard or soft defence measures and does not attribute a specific budget to climate change adaptation.
By the end of 2008 Göteborg aims to adopt a comprehensive city development plan. With this plan, the city aims to establish safe building regulations and provide clean drinking water as well as a reliable traffic system while minimising the impact on the environment. Göteborg commits to take climate change into account in future territorial developments.
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20.5. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE EXPENDITURE
In Sweden, no specific budget has been attributed at national or sub-national level to adapt the coastal zones to climate change. The main adaptation measure in Sweden is a revision of the spatial planning policy and the incorporation of safety margins in land use plans. Other measures undertaken at national and sub-national level to protect against the effects of climate change, mainly flooding, erosion and extreme weather related events, amount to about € 9.5 million in 2008. Table 20-1 provides an overview of the expenditure as well as a forecast budget for the protection against flooding, erosion and extreme weather in Sweden for the period 1998-2015. Over this period Sweden will have invested about € 127 million in coastal protection and climate adaptation.
The main financing at national level occurs through the National Swedish Rescue Service Agency Fund. For the period 2007-2009, the yearly fund of € 2.68 million was exceptionally doubled. It has to be noted however that this fund is used to protect the entire country from natural catastrophe and not only the coastal areas. In preparation of a national adaptation strategy, a national climate change study was executed between 2005 and 2007 for a total budget of € 2.14 million in preparation of a national adaptation strategy. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute undertakes climate change research for about € 2.5 million per year.
At sub-national level, municipalities mainly adapt their land use plans. Ad-hoc measures to protect against flooding and erosion are mainly taken in Ystad for approximately € 0.55 million per year since 2006.
Policy Research Corporation - 9 - The economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas
Table 20-1: Expenditure to protect against coastal flooding and erosion (in € million)
MAINTENANCE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE INDIRECT EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE Year Flood warning National Swedish Specific investments New protective dikes and Flood warning EU projects and TOTAL National study and system Rescue Service on erosion measures water pumping stations system cooperations with other research **** Kristianstad* Agency Fund** Ystad*** Kristianstad* Kristianstad* municipalities - Ystad *** 1998 0.00 2.68 0.19 0.00 0.00 2.5 0.05 5.42 1999 0.00 2.68 0.05 0.00 0.00 2.5 0.01 5.25 2000 0.00 2.68 0.03 0.00 0.00 2.5 0.03 5.25 2001 0.00 2.68 0.07 0.00 0.00 2.5 0.02 5.27 2002 0.00 2.68 0.09 0.00 0.00 2.5 0.01 5.28 2003 0.00 2.68 0.03 2.00 0.00 2.5 0.01 7.22 2004 0.00 2.68 0.04 2.00 0.00 2.5 0.01 7.23 2005 0.00 2.68 0.03 2.00 0.00 2.5 0.04 7.26 2006 0.00 2.68 0.51 2.00 0.00 2.50 0.03 7.73 2007 0.005 4.28 0.54 2.00 0.75 2.80 0.01 10.38 2008 0.005 4.28 0.55 2.03 0.2 3.42 n.a. 10.48 2009 0.005 4.28 0.55 2.05 0.00 3.42 n.a. 10.30 2010 0.005 2.68 0.55 2.00 0.00 2.50 n.a. 7.74 2011 0.005 2.68 0.55 2.00 0.00 2.5 n.a. 7.74 2012 0.005 2.68 0.55 2.00 0.00 2.5 n.a. 7.74 2013 0.005 2.68 0.55 0.00 0.00 2.5 n.a. 5.74 2014 0.005 2.68 0.55 0.00 0.00 2.5 n.a. 5.74 2015 0.005 2.68 0.55 0.00 0.00 2.5 n.a. 5.74 53.04 5.99 20.07 0.95 47.14 0.24 TOTAL 0.05 127.48 80.05 47.38 * Proxy provided by the municipality of Kristianstad; besides building new protective dikes and water pumping stations also a pilot project with beach nourishments will be executed in 2009 for an amount of € 0.022 million and during the period 2008-2009 an additional € 0.050 million is available for measures against coastal erosion ** Proxy provided by Swedish Geotechnical Institute *** Proxy provided by the municipality of Ystad **** Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Rossby Centre) spends on average 2.5 million per year to climate research; the national climate change study accounted for about € 2.14 million over the period 2005-2007 (exchange rate used: 1€=9.13SEK)
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20.6. PERSONS CONTACTED AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
20.6.1. PERSONS CONTACTED
Name Organisation
Dahlman, Michael Municipality of Kristianstad
Hedlund, Tom Environmental Protection Agency
Kristensson, Anna County Administrative Board in Skåne
Moback,Ulf Municipality of Göteborg
Ohlsson, Mona Municipality of Ystad Office of Regional planning and urban transportation, Stockholm County Ostbrink, Jan-Ove Council
Rummukainen, Markku Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Rydell, Bengt Swedish Geotechnical Institute Office of Regional planning and urban transportation, Stockholm County Viehhauser, Michael Council
20.6.2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION USED
− City of Göteborg, 2008, Proposal for a comprehensive plan for Göteborg − Göteborg municipality, 2003, Summary report of the water plan − Hanson H., 2002, Eurosion case study Ystad − Helcom, 2007, Baltic Sea Action Plan, Krakow, Poland − Klein R. and Forsberg L., 2006, Swedish research to support national and local adaptation to climate change − Ministry of the Environment, 2007, The government’s climate policy, Stockholm, Sweden − Swedish Commission on Climate and vulnerability, 2007, Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities, Stockholm − Ystad municipality, 2008, Policy for the management and protection of the coast − www.coastalguide.org/icm
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