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Tanzania Comoros COUNTRY REPORT Tanzania Comoros 3rd quarter 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 40 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, USA Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Moya Veitch Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases CD-ROM Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Knight-Ridder Information World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Inc (USA) Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (USA) SilverPlatter (USA) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 LEXIS-NEXIS (USA) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0969-6776 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Summary Tanzania, Comoros 3rd quarter 1996 September 3, 1996 Tanzania Political and economic structures pages 2-3 Outlook: The government’s efforts to curb corruption and maladministration will antagonise the political and business communities before visible results are achieved. Real GDP growth in 1996 is expected to be 4.5%, slowing to 4% in 1997. The annual trade deficit will remain at around $1bn and will be plugged by balance-of-payments support from Tanzania’s traditional donors. pages 4-7 Review: Relations with foreign donors have improved and they have backed the government’s policy measures. The first budget presented by the minister of finance, Simon Mbilinyi, has been taken seriously by interest groups and the general public. Expenditure is due to rise by 21% in nominal terms. The TRA has begun work on time. The inflation rate has continued to slow. The 1995/96 maize crop was much improved on the previous season but relief supplies are still required. Cotton and coffee prices have declined. BHP has pulled out of the Golden Pride gold project. The MV Bukoba tragedy has continued to have repercussions. Tanzania now has a commercial Internet provider. The govern- ment has signed the IMF’s Article VIII, and full liberalisation of the shilling against the Kenyan and Ugandan currencies has taken place. pages 7-19 Comoros Political and economic structures pages 20-21 Outlook: A single ruling party will have to overcome traditional factional differences. Mr Taki needs to present a credible figure on the international scene. Corsair is planning a new air service from France. pages 22-23 Review: Mr Taki has cemented diplomatic links with Gabon and France, se- curing French aid and a small military garrison. The head of the armed forces has been replaced and the president has set out conservative Islamic social codes. The mercenary Bob Denard has been released from prison, but faces trial for the killing of former president Ahmed Abdallah and the failed putsch of 1995; he says he will not return to Comoros. Cabinet meetings have been suspended. Mr Taki has called for a single governing party to be formed and has reshuffled the cabinet. Salary arrears and a slimmed-down government machine have emerged as economic priorities. Arrests have been made on corruption charges. Comoros has accepted the IMF’s Article VIII conditions. pages 24-29 Statistical appendices pages 30-33 Editor: Andrew Manley All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 2 Tanzania Political structure: Tanzania Official name: United Republic of Tanzania Form of state: republic, formed by the 1964 union of Tanganyika and Zanzibar Legal system: based on English common law, the 1977 Union and 1985 Zanzibari constitutions, as amended National legislature: National Assembly, comprising 269 members (232 directly elected and 37 women appointed); elected members are chosen by Union-wide adult suffrage every five years; Zanzibar has its own House of Representatives of 59 members (nine women appointees) legislating on internal matters Last elections: October-November 1995 (legislative and presidential) Next elections: 2000 (legislative and presidential) Head of state: president, elected by universal adult suffrage every five years National government: the president, vice-president and Council of Ministers; last reshuffle November 1995 Main political parties: the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM); Civic United Front (CUF); National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR-Mageuzi); United Democratic Party (UDP); Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) President Benjamin Mkapa Vice-president Omar Ali Juma Prime minister Frederick Sumaye Key ministers agriculture & cooperatives Paul Kimiti communications & transport William Kusila community development, women’s affairs & children Mary Nagu defence Edgar Majogo education Juma Kapuya energy & minerals William Shija finance Simon Mbilinyi foreign affairs Jakaya Kikwete health Zakia Meghji home affairs Ali Ameir Mohammed justice & constitutional affairs Bakari Mwapachu labour & youth development Sebastian Kinyondo lands, housing & urban development Gideon Cheyo natural resources & tourism Juma Ngasongwa science, technology & higher education Jackson Makweta trade & industry Abdallah Kigoda water & livestock development Pius Ng’wandu works Anna Abdallah Governor of the central bank Idris Rashidi EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 Tanzania 3 Economic structure: Tanzania Latest available figures Economic indicators 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995a GDP at market prices TSh bn 626 766 962 1,249 n/a Real GDP growthb % 0.7 2.6 4.4 3.5 3.5 Consumer price inflationb % 22.2 23.1 25.3 34.1 30.0 Populationc m 25.2 25.9 26.7 27.4 28.2 Exports fob $ m 362 401 462 519 550 Imports cif $ m 1,285 1,314 1,300 1,505 1,450 Current account $ m –451 –422 –409 –390 –400 Reserves excl gold $ m 203.9 327.3 203.3 332.1 270.2d Total external debt $ m 6.689 6,781 6,963 7,442 n/a External debt-service ratio % 39.8 40.8 29.2 20.4 n/a Coffee productione ’000 tons 37.7 52.2 56.3 48.5 49.0d Cotton (lint) productione ’000 tons 49.0 76.5 68.8 48.4 44.0 Manufacturing indexb (1985=100) 117 110 110 101f n/a Exchange rate (av) TSh:$ 219 298 405 510 575d August 30, 1996 TSh580.0:$1 Origins of gross domestic product 1994b % of total Components of gross domestic product 1994b % of total Agriculture, forestry & fishing 57.1 Private consumption 89.6 Trade & hotels 15.3 Government consumption 7.7 Manufacturing 7.6 Gross fixed capital formation 27.5 Transport & communications 6.5 Increase in stocks 3.2 Construction & utilities 5.2 Exports of goods & non-factor services 26.4 Mining 1.3 Imports of goods & non-factor services –54.4 GDP at factor cost incl others 100.0 GDP at market prices 100.0 Principal exports 1994 $ m Principal imports 1994 $ m Coffee 115.2 Machinery & transport equipment 545.1 Cotton 104.8 Textiles & clothing 231.5 Manufactures 76.8 Petroleum & products 148.6 Cashew nuts 52.0 Food & drink 127.0 Minerals 30.2 Main destinations of exports 1995g % of total Main origins of imports 1995g % of total Germany 9.2 UK 9.6 Japan 8.2 Kenya 9.0 India 8.1 Japan 7.2 Belgium-Luxembourg 6.5 Saudi Arabia 6.3 UK 5.4 China 4.9 a EIU estimates. b Mainland only. c EIU estimates based on census results. d Actual. e Crop years ending June. f Average January-June. g Based on partners’ trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error. EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 4 Tanzania Tanzania Outlook The government is The time has come for a clean-up of Tanzanian public life, but a political making many enemies— culture of corruption is deeply embedded. Significantly, the new adminis- tration has begun to show itself earnest in its efforts to achieve an improve- ment. The first hurdle has thus been cleared: newspapers carry “War against corruption real” headlines; and citizens believe them. Tanzania’s punctilious legal community will complain that this or that bold measure is unconstitu- tional (and its voice can be damaging), but on the whole Tanzanians are happy to see their newly elected leaders making surprise moves such as the sacking en bloc of Dar es Salaam’s corrupt city council.
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