Town of Oakville Planning Department

Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy

Oakville, Ontario

January 2010 Town of Oakville Planning Department

Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy

Oakville, Ontario

January 2010

iTRANS Consulting Inc. 100 York Blvd., Suite 300 Richmond Hill, ON L4B 1J8 Tel: (905) 882-4100 Fax: (905) 882-1557 www.itransconsulting.com

Project # 5173 Town of Oakville Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy

Client Project Team

Project Manager Tricia Collingwood

Project Team Joanne Phoenix

iTRANS Project Team

Principal / Project Manager Ray Bacquie, P.Eng., AVS.

Technical Team Mark Mis, MBA Andrew Evans, MSc. Sherwin Gumbs, M.Eng., P.Eng. Tavia Chow Quality Control Wally Beck, C.E.T.

January 2010 iTRANS Project # 5173 Town of Oakville Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction ...... 1 2. Existing Conditions ...... 3 2.1 Existing Transit Mode Shares...... 3 2.1.1 Home-Work Transit Trips...... 4 2.1.2 Home-School Transit Trips...... 10 2.1.3 Home-Other Transit Trips...... 15 2.2 Existing Population and Employment Density...... 20 2.2.1 Population Density...... 20 2.2.2 Employment Density...... 20 2.2.3 Population and Employment Density...... 20 3. Challenges and Opportunities...... 24 3.1 Transportation Travel Trends ...... 24 3.2 Accessibility to Major Employment Centres...... 24 3.3 2031 Population and Employment Density ...... 26 4. Rapid Transit Corridors and Mobility Hubs ...... 30 4.1 Rapid Transit ...... 30 4.1.1 Existing Rapid Transit Corridors ...... 30 4.1.2 Identified Rapid Transit Corridors...... 31 4.1.3 Potential Rapid Transit Corridors ...... 33 4.2 Mobility Hubs...... 37 4.2.1 Existing Mobility Hubs...... 37 4.2.2 Identified Mobility Hubs...... 37 4.2.3 Potential Mobility Hubs ...... 38 5. Technical Analysis...... 41 5.1 Service and Technology Levels...... 41 5.2 Model Methodology ...... 42 5.2.1 Transit Mode Shares ...... 43 5.2.2 Peak Hour Passenger Volumes ...... 43 5.2.3 Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network ...... 45 5.2.4 Long-Term Rapid Transit Network ...... 51 6. Recommendations ...... 57 6.1 Corridors...... 57 6.1.1 Kerr Street ...... 60 6.2 Mobility Hubs...... 61 6.3 Transit Priority Measures ...... 61 Glossary of Terms...... 64

January 2010 i iTRANS Project # 5173 Town of Oakville Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy

Tables Table 1: Rapid Transit Connections: Employment Centres / Municipalities ...... 25 Table 2: Service and Technology Levels...... 42 Table 3: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 PPHPD and Frequency...... 46 Table 4: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 Transit Mode Shares ...... 48 Table 5: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2031 PPHPD and Frequency...... 49 Table 6: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2031 Transit Mode Shares ...... 50 Table 7: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 PPHPD and Frequency...... 52 Table 8: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 Transit Mode Shares ...... 52 Table 9: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2031 PPHPD and Frequency...... 54 Table 10: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 Transit Mode Shares...... 55 Table 11: Transit Service and Technology Recommendations ...... 57

Exhibits Exhibit 1: Town of Oakville’s Geographic Markets...... 1 Exhibit 2: Town of Oakville’s Traffic Zone and Urban Structures ...... 3 Exhibit 3: 2006 AM Peak Period Average Transit Mode Shares by Trip Purpose ...... 4 Exhibit 4: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Origin (AM Peak) – Local Transit ...... 6 Exhibit 5: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Origin (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit..... 7 Exhibit 6: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Destination (AM Peak) – Local Transit ...... 8 Exhibit 7: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Destination (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit ...... 9 Exhibit 8: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Origin (AM Peak) – Local Transit ...... 11 Exhibit 9: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Origin (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit. 12 Exhibit 10: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Destination (AM Peak) – Local Transit .... 13 Exhibit 11: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Destination (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit ...... 14 Exhibit 12: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Origin (AM Peak) – Local Transit ...... 16 Exhibit 13: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Origin (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit. 17 Exhibit 14: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Destination (AM Peak) – Local Transit ...... 18 Exhibit 15: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Destination (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit ...... 19 Exhibit 16: 2006 Population Density...... 21 Exhibit 17: 2006 Employment Density...... 22 Exhibit 18: 2006 Population and Employment Density ...... 23 Exhibit 19: 2031 Population Density...... 27 Exhibit 20: 2031 Employment Density...... 28 Exhibit 21: 2031 Population and Employment Density ...... 29 Exhibit 22: Existing Rapid Transit Corridors ...... 30 Exhibit 23: Identified Rapid Transit Corridors...... 31 Exhibit 24: Oakville Transit Network (as of September 2009) ...... 33

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Exhibit 25: Grid Route Network (as of September 2009) ...... 34 Exhibit 26: Potential Rapid Transit Corridors ...... 35 Exhibit 27: Halton Region TMP Service and Technology Levels ...... 42 Exhibit 28: Potential Rapid Transit Corridors ...... 43 Exhibit 29: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network 2021 ...... 44 Exhibit 30: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network 2031 ...... 44 Exhibit 31: Model Methodology...... 45 Exhibit 32: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network 2021 ...... 53 Exhibit 33: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network 2031 ...... 56 Exhibit 34: Kerr Street Routing ...... 60

January 2010 iii iTRANS Project # 5173 Town of Oakville Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy

1. INTRODUCTION

The Town of Oakville (Town) developed its transportation strategy through the recent Oakville Transportation Master Plan (TMP) in 2007. However, since 2007 the planning framework has changed as a result of provincial policy. The land use targets for the Town have been revised to conform to the provincial Places to Grow Act and related Region and Town policies.

As a result, there is a need for the Town to update its transportation strategy which is being conducted through the Oakville Transportation Growth Strategy. Phase 2 of the Oakville Transportation Growth Strategy is titled the Town of Oakville – Transit Strategy.

The objective of the Town of Oakville – Transit Strategy is to make specific recommendations that will increase transit mode shares in the long-term and subsequently partially relieve projected capacity constraints on the Town’s transportation road network as identified in Phase 1 Transportation Overview Study and the Oakville Transportation Master Plan 2007.

To identify what transit enhancements can be made by the Town by the year 2031, a long- term rapid transit network has been developed. A key principle that guides the development of the network is that there are two geographic markets that Oakville Transit serves. Oakville Transit directly serves 1) The local market which consists of trips within the Town and 2) Indirectly serves the regional market by connecting local routes to local transit in neighbouring municipalities and GO Transit’s regional rail and bus service as illustrated in Exhibit 1. This study recognizes that the Town’s long-term rapid transit strategy must identify local and regional transportation trends and opportunities as both have an impact on the Town’s transportation network.

Exhibit 1: Town of Oakville’s Geographic Markets

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This study applies the following methodology to determine the Town’s 2031 Long-Term Rapid Transit Network: . Existing Conditions: An assessment of the Town’s and neighbouring municipalities’ existing transit mode shares and population / employment densities. This assessment is required as a preface to the proceeding challenges and opportunities section. It provides a detailed analysis of current transit travel trends and population and employment densities. . Challenges and Opportunities: An assessment of the Town’s challenges and opportunities to implement a rapid transit network. This assessment will identify challenges and opportunities to be considered when preparing the technical analysis framework. . Rapid Transit Corridors and Mobility Hubs: An assessment and description of governed and non-governed existing, identified and potential rapid transit corridors and mobility hubs within the Town. This assessment produces a list of corridors and mobility hubs to be evaluated in the proceeding technical analysis. . Technical Analysis: A technical assessment that identifies peak hour demand (PHD) by calculating peak hour, peak direction, passenger volumes on each of the Town’s identified, and potential rapid transit corridors in Horizon 2021 and Horizon 2031. This will identify which corridors require rapid-transit enhancements, and subsequently which nodes require transit treatments to accommodate the projected growth in passenger volumes. In effect, this analysis will determine the Town’s 2031 Long-Term Rapid Transit Network which will guide the recommendation process. . Recommendations: Identification of the Town’s corridors that require transit enhancements in 2021 and 2031.

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2. EXISTING CONDITIONS

2.1 Existing Transit Mode Shares

Transit mode shares refer to the percent, or share, of total trips that are taken by public transit. The Town generates and attracts different transit mode shares for each of the Town’s traffic zones. This is because different traffic zones have different urban forms and are designated for different uses. As a point of reference, the Town’s traffic zones are overlaid upon the Town’s Urban Structure map as seen below in Exhibit 2. Exhibit 2: Town of Oakville’s Traffic Zone and Urban Structures

These traffic zones are identified in the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey which is a Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) wide travel survey for all modes of transportation and different trip purposes. The proceeding assessment of existing transit conditions uses 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey data to identify transit mode shares in the Town and in neighbouring municipalities. These transit mode shares are identified at specific traffic zones where a transit trip originates and where a transit trip is destined to for different trip purposes.

These different trip purposes are as follows: . Work . School . Other

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This array of information can be compartmentalized to identify where and why transit is being used. In the proceeding assessment, the following combinations will be examined: . HBWO: Transit trips from home to work shown at the zone of origin. . HBWD: Transit trips from home to work shown at the zone of destination. . HBSO: Transit trips from home to school shown at the zone of origin. . HBSD: Transit trips from home to school shown at the zone of destination. . HBOO: Transit trips from home to other shown at the zone of origin. . HBOD: Transit trips from home to other shown at the zone of destination.

Exhibit 3 summarizes the Town’s 2006 average AM peak period transit mode shares by trip purpose (work, school, other) by origin and destination for Local Transit (includes Oakville Transit and GO Transit bus service) and both Local Transit and GO Transit rail service. Exhibit 3: 2006 AM Peak Period Average Transit Mode Shares by Trip Purpose

Exhibit 3 shows that transit mode shares vary for different trip purposes. As seen, local transit is used by 6% of all people, who begin their trip in Oakville, travelling from home to work in the AM peak period. When GO Transit is included, both Local and GO Transit is used by 17% of all people, who begin their trip in Oakville, travelling from home to work in the AM peak period.

2.1.1 Home-Work Transit Trips

Home-work transit trips are transit trips that originate within the zone that the trip takers home is located and are destined to the zone that the trip takers work is located.

As shown in Exhibit 3, the Town in the AM peak period generates a transit mode share of 6% via local transit and 17% via both local transit and GO Transit. This 17% transit mode share generated by the Town’s traffic zones is above the national average which in 2006 was reported as the percent “of workers who took some form of public transit increased from 10.5% in 2001 to 11.0% in 2006 … (and for) … Canada's 22 Census Metropolitan Areas, this represents an increase from 14.4% to 15.1%.”1

As explained, Canada’s national average transit mode share is 11% and Canada’s 22 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) average transit mode share is 15%. The Town’s 17% home-work transit share is above both the national and CMA average. This shows that GO Transit provides a key role in transporting people from their homes in Oakville to work in neighbouring municipalities.

1 http://www.cutaactu.ca/en/node/1690

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Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5 illustrate 2006 AM peak period home-work transit mode shares at the traffic zone of origin for Oakville and neighbouring Greater Toronto Area municipalities. In the aforementioned exhibits the following is observed: . Home-Work Origin Local Transit: Overall, local transit generates a 6% transit mode share for home-work origins. As seen in Exhibit 4, Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 17 zones, 10%-15% in 3 zones, and 15%-20% in 3 zones. With respect to transit mode shares adjacent to Trafalgar and Dundas, these transit mode share patterns mirror transit mode shares in north Brampton, specifically along Bovaird, where Brampton Transit is planning to launch Zum Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service in 2014. This suggests that Town’s two identified rapid transit corridors have transit mode shares to support rapid transit applications. The remainder of the Town shows low transit mode shares for work trips suggesting that the majority of these trips are taken by personal automobile. . Home-Work Origin Local Transit and GO Transit: Overall, local transit and GO Transit generate a 17% transit mode share for home-work origins. As seen in Exhibit 5, the Town ’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 6 zones, 10%- 15% in 9 zones, 15%-20% in 17 zones and are greater than 20% in 6 zones. The increase in transit mode share is predominantly found in zones adjacent to GO Transit Stations along the Lakeshore West line in Oakville. This GO Transit driven increase is also found in other GTHA municipalities with GO rail corridors such as Brampton, Burlington and Mississauga. It indicates the importance of GO Transit to the Town ’s transportation network for the home to work market as it relieves capacity on the QEW through Oakville.

Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7 illustrate 2006 AM peak period home-work transit mode shares at the traffic zone of destination for Oakville and neighbouring GTHA municipalities. In the aforementioned exhibits the following is observed: . Home-Work Destination Local Transit: Overall, local transit attracts a 3% transit mode share for home-work destinations. As seen in Exhibit 6, The Towns’s traffic zones attract transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 8 zones, and 10%-15% in 2 zones. Compared against the 6% transit mode share for zone of origin, the 3% transit mode share for zone of destination suggests that local transit travel is in conjunction with GO Transit to non- Oakville destinations. This strengthens the case for both rapid transit on Dundas and Trafalgar as it suggests that the Long-Term Rapid Transit Network must provide connections to GO Transit and connections within the Town. . Home-Work Destination Local Transit and GO Transit: Overall, local transit and GO Transit attract a 3% transit mode share for home-work destinations. As seen in Exhibit 7, The Town ’s traffic zones attract transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 9 zones, and 10%-15% in 2 zones. Compared against the 17% transit mode share for zone of origin, the 3% transit mode share for zone of destination suggests that local transit and GO Transit travel is to non-Oakville destinations. However, the identification of all day two way trips on the Lakeshore West line and rapid transit on Highway 403 and Highway 407 will allow commuters into the Town to take rapid transit. This suggests that rapid transit connections to Highway 407 and Highway 403 car pool lots require transit facilities such as a bus turnaround and shelter.

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Exhibit 4: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Origin (AM Peak) – Local Transit

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Exhibit 5: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Origin (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit

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Exhibit 6: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Destination (AM Peak) – Local Transit

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Exhibit 7: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Work Destination (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit

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2.1.2 Home-School Transit Trips

School-based transit trips are transit trips that originate within the zone that the trip takers home is located and are destined to the zone that the trip takers school (all schools - elementary, secondary, post-secondary) is located.

Exhibit 8 and Exhibit 9 illustrate 2006 AM peak period home-school transit mode shares at the traffic zone of origin for Oakville and neighbouring Greater Toronto Area municipalities. In the aforementioned exhibits the following is observed: . Home-School Origin Local Transit: Overall, local transit generates a 6% transit mode share for home-school origins. As seen in Exhibit 8, The Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 8 zones, 10%-15% in 2 zones, 15%-20% in 6 zones, and greater than 20% in 1 zone. The introduction of rapid transit on Dundas will increase home-school transit mode shares in the communities of White Oaks, River Oaks, Palermo West, and Iroquois Ridge North as a direct connection to the University of Toronto at Mississauga will be provided. This transit mode share pattern mirrors transit mode shares in Brampton, Burlington and Mississauga. . Home-School Origin Local Transit and GO Transit: Overall, local transit and GO Transit generate a 7% transit mode share for home-school origins. As seen in Exhibit 9, The Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 6 zones, 10%- 15% in 4 zones, 15%-20% in 3 zones, and greater than 20% in 4 zones. The slight increase in transit mode share of 1% when GO is considered reflects students travelling to Post Secondary institutions such as the University of Toronto and Ryerson University via GO Lakeshore West, York University via GO 407, and McMaster via both GO Lakeshore West and GO 407. The impact of GO Transit’s improvements on the Lakeshore West rail line, the 403 Transitway, and the 407 Transitway will increase these transit mode shares. Exhibit 10 and Exhibit 11 illustrate 2006 AM peak period home-school transit mode shares at the traffic zone of destination for Oakville and neighbouring GTHA municipalities. In the aforementioned exhibits the following is observed: . Home-School Destination Local Transit: Overall, local transit attracts a 6% transit mode share for home-school destinations. As seen in Exhibit 10, The Town ’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 1 zone, 10%-15% in 2 zones, 15%-20% in 0 zones, and greater than 20% in 3 zones. The home-school destination transit mode share of 6% is the same as the home-school origin transit mode share. This is because local transit is used by high school students who live and attend school in Oakville. . Home-School Destination Local Transit and GO Transit: Overall, local transit and GO Transit attracts a 6% transit mode share for home-school destinations. As seen in Exhibit 11, The Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 1 zone, 10%-15% in 2 zones, 15%-20% in 0 zones, and greater than 20% in 3 zones. The 6% transit mode share and traffic zone transit mode share is precisely the same distribution as seen in the local transit only map in Exhibit 11. This transit mode share will increase with GO Transit service to Sheridan College on Trafalgar and facilitated by the joint Oakville Transit and GO Transit terminal on campus.

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Exhibit 8: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Origin (AM Peak) – Local Transit

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Exhibit 9: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Origin (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit

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Exhibit 10: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Destination (AM Peak) – Local Transit

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Exhibit 11: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – School Destination (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit

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2.1.3 Home-Other Transit Trips

Other-based transit trips are transit trips that originate within the zone that the trip takers home is located and are destined to the zone that the trip takers leisure / shopping activity is located.

Exhibit 12 and Exhibit 13 illustrate 2006 AM peak period home-other transit mode shares at the traffic zone of origin for Oakville and neighbouring GTHA municipalities. For home- work origin local transit and home-work origin local transit and GO Transit, the following is observed: . Home-Other Origin Local Transit: Overall, local transit generates a 1% transit mode share for home-other origins. As seen in Exhibit 12, The Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 10%-15% in 1 zone, 15%-20% in 0 zones, and greater than 20% in 1 zone. As seen in Exhibit 12, these transit mode shares are comparable to transit mode shares for other trip purposes in neighbouring municipalities such as Brampton, Burlington, Mississauga and Vaughan. . Home-Other Origin Local Transit and GO Transit: Overall, local transit and GO Transit generates a 2% transit mode share for home-other origins. As seen in Exhibit 13, The Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares between 5%-10% in 7 zones, 10%- 15% in 2 zones, 15%-20% in 0 zones, and greater than 20% in 1 zone. The doubling of transit mode share when GO Transit is considered is for traffic zones near GO Transit’s Lakeshore West rail corridor and the 407. This travel is destined for shopping and leisure activities in Toronto. As seen in Exhibit 13, these transit mode shares are comparable to transit mode shares in neighbouring municipalities such as Brampton, Burlington, Mississauga and Vaughan. Exhibit 14 and Exhibit 15 illustrate 2006 AM peak period home-other transit mode shares at the traffic zone of destination for Oakville and neighbouring GTHA. For home-work origin local transit and home-work origin local transit and GO Transit, the following is observed: . Home-Other Destination Local Transit: Overall, local transit attracts a 0% transit mode share for home-other destinations. As seen in Exhibit 14, The Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares of 0%-5% in all 57 traffic zones. As seen in Exhibit 14, these transit mode shares are comparable to transit mode shares in neighbouring municipalities such as Brampton, Burlington, Mississauga and Vaughan. . Home-Other Destination Local Transit and GO Transit: Overall, local transit and GO Transit attracts a 0% transit mode share for home-other destinations. As seen in Exhibit 15, The Town’s traffic zones generate transit mode shares of 0%-5% in all 57 traffic zones. As seen in Exhibit 15, these transit mode shares are comparable to transit mode shares in neighbouring municipalities such as Brampton, Burlington, Mississauga and Vaughan.

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Exhibit 12: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Origin (AM Peak) – Local Transit

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Exhibit 13: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Origin (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit

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Exhibit 14: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Destination (AM Peak) – Local Transit

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Exhibit 15: 2006 Transit Mode Shares – Other Destination (AM Peak) – Local and GO Transit

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2.2 Existing Population and Employment Density

The Transit Cooperative Research Program’s (TCRP) Report 16 states there is strong “empirical evidence that transit and urban form relationships are important.”2 The findings of the study supports that aspects of land use form operate dynamically with transit investment.

Rapid transit can influence compact, mixed-use development, which in return can encourage greater transit ridership. The Town’s current land use form is a mix of urban and rural forms that have different population and employment characteristics as seen in the following section.

2.2.1 Population Density

Exhibit 16 illustrates the Town’s 2006 population density by Transportation Tomorrow Survey zone. The Town has population densities between 0-1,500 people per square kilometre in 33 traffic zones, 1,501-3,000 in 21 traffic zones, and 3,001-4,500 in 3 traffic zones. These major population densities are in the Towns communities of West Oak Trails, River Oaks, Iroquois Ridge North, Glen Abbey, College park and Iroquois Ridge South. This clustering of large population densities is adjacent to Dundas, Trafalgar and to a lesser extent Third Line and Upper Middle Road. Population densities along these corridors resemble population densities in Vaughan where Viva Orange currently services the Highway 7 corridor.

2.2.2 Employment Density

Exhibit 17 illustrates the Town’s 2006 employment density by Transportation Tomorrow Survey zone. The Town has employment densities between 0-1,500 jobs per square kilometre in 48 traffic zones, 1,501-3,000 in 8 traffic zones, and 3,001-4,500 in 1 traffic zones. These major employment densities are the communities of QEW West, QEW East and Winston Park. The Town’s employment densities by traffic zone resemble employment densities in Etobicoke, Downsview (both of which have subway service), Mississauga along Hurontario (rapid transit planned for 2011), and Northeast Brampton (Zum Queen to be launched in 2010 and Zum Bovaird in 2014).

2.2.3 Population and Employment Density

Exhibit 18 illustrates the Town’s 2006 population and employment density by Transportation Tomorrow Survey zone. The Town has population and employment densities between 0-1,500 people and jobs per square kilometre in 23 traffic zones, 1,501-3,000 in 20 traffic zones, 3,001-4,500 in 13 traffic zones, and 4,501-6,000 in 1 traffic zone. The largest traffic population and employment centre by traffic zone is directly south and adjacent to Midtown Oakville. Of note is that the Town’s combined population and employment densities are compact and centrally located lending itself well to a grid transit network.

2. (TCRP Report 16, p. 2)

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Exhibit 16: 2006 Population Density

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Exhibit 17: 2006 Employment Density

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Exhibit 18: 2006 Population and Employment Density

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3. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

3.1 Transportation Travel Trends

As identified in the preceding section, local transit and GO Transit capture a relatively similar transit mode share to neighbouring municipalities when examining trips that originate in the Town. However, when school trips, and other trips that originate in Oakville are examined, and all purpose trips that are destined to the Town are examined, it is evident that although comparable to neighbouring municipalities, transit mode shares are low.

As identified in the Phase 1 Overview of Transportation Study, travel to and from Oakville is largely dominated by the personal automobile. The automobile modal share ranges from 79% for AM peak period outbound trips to 91% for PM peak period outbound trips. As identified in this same report, when 2006 trips by mode were compared to the 2001 data presented in the TMP, the modal split breakdown is similar indicating little or no change in travel behaviour within the Town.

This trend of the personal automobile as the dominant mode of travel is also identified in the 2007 TMP which states that this will lead to capacity constraints on the Town’s road network. The 2007 TMP identifies a solution that consists of road widening and an increase in the share of alternative modes of transportation (transit, walk, cycling). The increase transit mode share is the purpose of the Town of Oakville – Transit Strategy.

3.2 Accessibility to Major Employment Centres

The lack of transit access from Oakville to major employment centres in the western Greater Toronto Area leaves people with no other option but to use personal vehicles as their mode of transportation. The major employment centres in the western Greater Toronto Area include: . QEW East . QEW West . Winston Park . Mississauga City Centre . Pearson Airport . 407 / 403 Area . Brampton North . Etobicoke Centre . Downtown Toronto . North York Centre

Table 1 shows the ability to use rapid transit between Oakville and major employment centres and between neighbouring municipalities and the Town’s major employment centres.

January 2010 24 iTRANS Project # 5173 Town of Oakville Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy a g a a g u n g n e e a u o o u s t k a t k a s s g o g o i s s c s c s n i n i i i i s i s l i k l s b b s r s r r i n o o i

EMPLOYMENT M o u t t u o

e M t o l l B M E Y B E t l

a CENTRES - p i h n r h h h h h h t v t t t t t t t m o u k

MUNICIPALITIES r r r r r n a u u o a o e o o o r o o o S O S N B C N S N N T

QEW East Yes Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No Yes

QEW West Yes Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No Yes

Winston Park No No No No Yes No No No No No No Mississauga City No Centre Pearson Airport No

407 / 403 Area No

Brampton North No

Etobicoke Centre Yes

Downtown Toronto Yes

North York Centre Yes

Table 1: Rapid Transit Connections: Employment Centres / Municipalities

As seen in Table 1, only those major employment centres along GO Transit’s Lakeshore West line are accessible via rapid transit. As seen, Town residents do not have rapid transit access to the employment centres in Peel. Reciprocally, residents of Peel, north of the Lakeshore West line, do not have rapid transit access to the Town’s major employment centres. The implementation of the Highway 403 Transitway and Highway 407 Transitway will provide a two-way rapid transit connection for those Oakville residents travelling to major employment centres in Peel and for Peel residents accessing the Town’s major employment centres.

The implementation of the Highway 403 Transitway and Highway 407 Transitway provides important connection opportunities as Oakville Transit provides the local service to get residents to the regional network and get non-Oakville residents to the Town’s major employment nodes.

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3.3 2031 Population and Employment Density

In the future, the Town’s 2031 population and employment density will be similar to other municipalities that are planning rapid transit today.

In 2031, the Town’s population will grow to 272,000 from 170,000 in 2006. This represents a steady annual growth rate of 2.3% per annum for 25 years. Exhibit 19 illustrates the Town’s population density in 2031. As seen, in 2031 the Dundas corridor shows large population densities in North Oakville’s communities of Joshua’s Meadows and Glenorchy. This population density resembles the population density of the Dundas Corridor in west Mississauga. In addition, population growth along the Trafalgar corridor continues to increase supporting it as a major rapid transit corridor. In addition, population density along Third Line is of note.

In 2031, the Town’s employment will grow to 142,000 from 90,000 in 2006. This represents a steady annual growth rate of 2.8% per annum for 25 years. Exhibit 20 illustrates the Town’s employment density in 2031. As seen by 2031, the employment lands of the QEW West, QEW East, Clearview and Winston Park area will intensify. This major employment stretch within Oakville is similar to South Etobicoke and in portions of Pearson International Airport. With the introduction of the Highway 403 Transitway and the Highway 407 Transitway, these major employment centres can be accessed from residents in neighbouring municipalities. With respect to the 407 Transitway, local rapid transit connections are required at Trafalgar and Bronte to facilitate the travel of commuters within the Town.

In 2031, the Town’s combined population and employment will grow to 414,000 from 260,000 in 2006. Exhibit 21 illustrates the Town’s combined population and employment density in 2031. As seen, in 2031 Town’s major growth areas of Midtown, Uptown Core, Kerr Village, Old Oakville, Bronte Village, Palermo Village become major population and employment areas. As a whole, the Town’s population and employment creates rapid transit opportunities on the following corridors: . Trafalgar Road: Connects the major nodes of Old Oakville, Oakville GO Station, Midtown, Sheridan College, and Uptown Core . Dundas Street: Connects the major nodes of Palermo Village, the New Oakville Hospital, Uptown Core and Winston Park . Third Line: Connects the major nodes of the New Oakville Hospital, Bronte GO Station, and Hopedale Mall . Lakeshore Road: Connects the major nodes of Bronte Village, Kerr Village and Downtown Oakville with the communities of Bronte, Old Oakville, and Eastlake . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Connects Bronte GO and Oakville GO with the QEW West and QEW East major employment centres.

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Exhibit 19: 2031 Population Density

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Exhibit 20: 2031 Employment Density

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Exhibit 21: 2031 Population and Employment Density

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4. RAPID TRANSIT CORRIDORS AND MOBILITY HUBS

4.1 Rapid Transit

4.1.1 Existing Rapid Transit Corridors

Today, rapid transit in the Town exists in the form of GO Transit’s inter-regional Lakeshore West commuter rail service as illustrated in Exhibit 22 and described below.

Exhibit 22: Existing Rapid Transit Corridors

4.1.1.1 GO Transit Lakeshore West Commuter Rail Line

GO Transit’s Lakeshore West rail line extends over 60 kilometres west from Downtown Toronto’s Union Station, through both Oakville GO Station and Bronte GO Station to the City of Hamilton. This commuter-based service is Toronto-centric in orientation. Regular daily service is provided from these stations east to the City of Toronto and west to the City of Burlington. Additional weekday peak period, peak direction service is provided to or from the City of Hamilton.

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GO Transits’ Lakeshore West rail corridor presents connection opportunities for enhanced connections between the Midtown Oakville area and other urban growth centres located along the lakeshore west corridor, such as Port Credit in the City of Mississauga, Downtown Burlington and Downtown Hamilton.

Midtown Oakville is well served by an inter-regional GO bus line that operates between the Oakville GO Station and the Finch GO Terminal located in North York (City of Toronto). The vast majority local Town transit bus routes also converge at the Oakville GO Station.

4.1.2 Identified Rapid Transit Corridors

In November 2008, the Greater Toronto Transportation Authority, now Metrolinx, released the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) for the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA). The RTP identifies funding for 60 rapid transit and highway improvement projects to be implemented over the next 25 years. The identified rapid transit projects, including those in the Town, are illustrated in Exhibit 23 and described thereafter.

Exhibit 23: Identified Rapid Transit Corridors

4.1.2.1 Trafalgar Road Rapid Transit

Rapid Transit on Trafalgar Road provides a direct north-south connection between the Midtown Oakville hub and major destinations and development areas along the Trafalgar Road corridor including the Oakville Place Shopping Centre, Sheridan College-Trafalgar

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Campus, Oakville’s Uptown core including inter-municipal service to Downtown Milton. This route also connects to the Highway 403 transitway and Lakeshore West rail line at Oakville GO Station.

Transfer opportunities also exist between Trafalgar Road services and rapid transit along Dundas Street, the Highway 407 transitway and GO Transit’s Milton GO rail line in the Town of Milton. An opportunity exists to connect this service to Old Oakville via Kerr Street.

4.1.2.2 Dundas Street Rapid Transit

Rapid Transit along Dundas Street known as the Mid-Halton corridor serves the cities of Mississauga, Burlington and Toronto. This east-west route intersects with rapid transit services on Trafalgar Road at the Town’s “Uptown Core”. West of Trafalgar Road, Dundas rapid transit provides service to the growth area of Palermo Village at Bronte Road and the New Oakville Hospital at Third Line. The Dundas Street rapid transit line will provide direct, cross-town service between North Oakville and the City of Burlington, connecting to the Highway 407 transitway.

East of Trafalgar Road, the Dundas Street route would connect numerous development areas and nodes along Dundas Street through the Town, the City of Mississauga and the City of Toronto. The route would connect residential areas in northeast Oakville to employment / commercial / industrial areas at Winston Park around Winston Churchill Boulevard and Dundas Street, the University of Toronto’s Mississauga’s Erindale Campus, higher-order transit services on Hurontario Street, while connecting to the Bloor-Danforth Subway and Highway 427 rapid transit services at Kipling Station in the City of Toronto.

4.1.2.3 407 Transitway

The Highway 407 transitway provides inter-regional rapid transit service along the Highway 407 corridor through the Town between the City of Burlington and various other municipalities and major employment centres in the GTHA along the corridor. The Highway 407 transitway connects to the Trafalgar Road and Highway 403 higher-order transit services in the Town. Direct service is also provided to the Downtown Burlington hub. This route is beneficial to the Town as it provides a direct rapid transit connection between Oakville and other, suburban urban growth centres and development nodes in the GTHA.

4.1.2.4 403 Transitway

The Highway 403 transitway provides rapid transit service along the Highway 403 corridor from the Oakville GO Station and Midtown Oakville hub to other regional destinations in Mississauga and the GTHA including the Mississauga City Centre, Pearson International Airport connecting to other rapid transit services in Toronto, York and Durham Regions. The western terminus of the Highway 403 transitway at the Oakville GO Station acts as a transit hub providing transfer opportunities to rapid transit services on Trafalgar Road and

January 2010 32 iTRANS Project # 5173 Town of Oakville Town of Oakville - Transit Strategy the Lakeshore West rail line. The Highway 403 transitway also connects to multiple rapid transit lines including higher-order transit services on Dundas Street, the Highway 407 Transitway, rapid transit services on Hurontario Street in Mississauga and multiple rapid transit services in the City of Toronto.

Like the Highway 407 transitway, the Highway 403 transitway provides inter-regional connections between the Midtown Oakville hub and other non-downtown Toronto destinations in the GTHA.

4.1.3 Potential Rapid Transit Corridors

The Town is transitioning to a grid route network in September 2009 as illustrated in the system route network in Exhibit 25 and highlighted in Exhibit 25. A grid network requires a suitable road network. This type of network offers maximum direct single transfer service between growth areas and major employment centres. To be effective, however, a grid network requires high population density, high annual per capita ridership, and short headways that reduce transfer wait times. The routes passing through Midtown become dominant and may feature exclusive right of ways. However, a grid network also requires transit enhancements along other corridors to support transit growth. These transit enhancements on grid routes have the potential to become rapid transit corridors. As community routes that circulate through neighbourhoods and use a combination of arterial roads and collector roads, they are unlikely to feature rapid transit enhancements.

Exhibit 24: Oakville Transit Network (as of September 2009)

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Exhibit 25: Grid Route Network (as of September 2009) The proceeding analysis of these potential rapid transit corridors makes minor modifications to this grid route network to reflect long-term growth. As the forthcoming technical analysis is based on Horizon 2021 and Horizon 2031, the following minor modifications are made and illustrated in Exhibit 26: . Bronte Road: Rapid transit from Highway 407 transitway to Lakeshore . Third Line: Extension south of Hopedale Mall to connect to Lakeshore . Trafalgar Road: From Downtown Milton to Old Oakville via Kerr Street . Ford Drive: Extension north via Ninth Line to Dundas Street . Dundas Street: Continuous service from the City of Burlington to the City of Mississauga

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Exhibit 26: Potential Rapid Transit Corridors The following is a description of the potential for rapid transit on these grid routes.

4.1.3.1 Bronte Road

The Bronte Road rapid transit line would provide a direct north-south link between the Bronte Village area of Oakville to the south and the Highway 407 transitway to the north. It would also serve the QEW West / Speers Road industrial / employment areas, Glen Abbey and West Oak Trails, while intersecting with multiple east-west transit corridors throughout the Town. Connections would be provided to transit services on the Lakeshore West GO rail line at Bronte GO Station, Rebecca Street, Upper Middle Road, Dundas Street rapid transit, and the Highway 407 transitway. Bronte Road has the potential to facilitate a regional service between the Town and the Town of Milton because of the limited residential areas along the corridor, Bronte Creek Provincial Park Conservation.

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4.1.3.2 Third Line

Rapid transit services on Third-Line would provide an additional north-south rapid transit corridor in the Town. This route would serve from north to south, the New Oakville Hospital, the communities of North Oakville, West Oak Trail’s and Glen Abbey, Bronte GO Station, and Hopedale Mall. Connection opportunities exist with Dundas rapid transit at the New Oakville Hospital, and with the Lakeshore West rail service at Bronte GO Station. An opportunity also exists to use the proposed reserved bus lanes or high occupancy vehicle lanes on Dundas and Bronte (north of Dundas) to connect to the Highway 407 transitway.

4.1.3.3 Ninth Line / Ford Drive

Rapid Transit service on Ninth Line and Ford Drive provides an additional north-south rapid transit corridor in East Oakville.

The service would connect the Winston Park West industrial employment area with the Ford Motor Company and the residential areas in the community of Eastlake. Rapid transit connections would be made at Lakeshore Road, Cornwall Road, Upper Middle Road and Dundas Street.

4.1.3.4 Lakeshore West Road

A rapid transit line along Lakeshore West Road will serve major development areas in southwest Oakville with the potential to extend services into the City of Burlington. This route would connect Bronte Village area to rapid transit services along Third Line and Bronte Road, and connect the Downtown Oakville and Kerr Village growth areas to the Midtown Oakville hub via an extension of Trafalgar via Kerr Street.

4.1.3.5 Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road

Rapid transit along Wyecroft via Third Line to Speers / Cornwall would directly serve the QEW West / Speers Road employment and industrial areas of the Town, providing a direct connection between the Midtown Oakville hub and major employment / industrial areas of Oakville. The service would also connect Bronte GO Station, Oakville GO Station with Clarkson GO Station and proposed rapid transit on Erin Mills Parkway. It should be noted that if access to Bronte GO Station becomes available from Speers Road than rapid transit along Wyecroft Road should be substituted for an extension of Speers / Cornwall.

4.1.3.6 Upper Middle Road

Rapid transit services on Upper Middle Road would provide an alternate, cross-town, east- west transit corridor across the Town, and parallel to Dundas Street. This route would connect numerous residential areas in the Town such as Glen Abbey, West Oak Trails and Iroquois Ridge to major destinations along the Upper Middle corridor such as the Trafalgar Centre, Sheridan College and the Winston Park Industrial area in east Oakville.

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This route would intersect with multiple higher-order transit lines including those on Bronte Road, Third Line, Trafalgar Road, Ninth Line / Ford Drive and the Highway 403 transitway. The potential also exists to extend services along Upper Middle Road east into the City of Mississauga where it would connect to conventional service on Winston Churchill, providing more opportunities for inter-municipal transit service between Oakville and Mississauga.

4.2 Mobility Hubs

Mobility hubs are locations that are well served by higher-order transit and have been designated as areas where population and employment growth are planned to be concentrated. The potential mobility hubs in the Town vary in size. They include large, regional-scale, multi-modal hubs such as the Anchor Hubs proposed in the Metrolinx RTP, which will have high concentrations of population and employment and accommodate a hierarchy of transit services, such as inter-city and regional rail services, regional rapid transit and local transit services.

Other small scale mobility hubs would act as the central point or the “downtown” area of a specific neighbourhood. These smaller-scale mobility hubs can be located at where two or more rapid transit lines intersect.

Existing, identified and potential mobility hubs for the Town are identified in the following subsections.

4.2.1 Existing Mobility Hubs

Existing mobility hubs in the Town include the Oakville GO Station and Bronte GO Station, where GO rail and Oakville Transit routes converge. The Oakville GO Station is served by GO Transit’s Lakeshore West commuter rail line, regional GO bus services and the vast majority of Oakville Transit’s local bus routes. This hub is located in Midtown Oakville.

The Bronte GO Station is served by GO transit’s Lakeshore West commuter rail line, regional GO bus services and local Oakville Transit bus routes. This hub is located in the QEW west employment area of the Town.

4.2.2 Identified Mobility Hubs

Identified mobility hubs in the Town are areas that are currently designated for future intensification with an emphasis on public transit access.

4.2.2.1 Midtown Oakville

The Oakville GO Station and surrounding area has been directed by the Town’s Official Plan and designated by Metrolinx as a mobility hub named the Midtown Oakville Anchor Hub and urban growth centre. These are areas where high levels of population and employment growth and intensification will occur.

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4.2.2.2 Uptown Core Transit Terminal

The Uptown Core Transit Terminal is located at the intersection of Dundas Street and Trafalgar Road and would be served by rapid transit routes established along Trafalgar Road and Dundas Street. This hub is located in Oakville’s Uptown Core, an area that is already seeing increased commercial, employment and residential development. Future population and employment intensification is expected at this location, including future development in the Iroquois Ridge North and North Oakville areas of the Town.

4.2.2.3 Trafalgar / Highway 407

The Trafalgar / 407 hub is located at the intersection of Trafalgar Road and Highway 407. This hub would be served by rapid transit routes proposed along Trafalgar Road and the 407 transitway, serving future development areas in North Oakville.

4.2.2.4 Dundas / Highway 403

The Dundas / 403 hub is located at the intersection of Dundas Street and Highway 403 where rapid along Dundas Street and the 403 Transitway would intersect as well as proposed rapid transit on Ninth Line / Ford Drive. This hub would serve the existing employment, industrial and commercial areas in Winston Park and future population and employment growth expected in northeast Oakville.

4.2.3 Potential Mobility Hubs

There are many suitable locations throughout the Town for additional mobility hubs. Given the proposed “grid network” of rapid transit routes that will cross the Town, locations where two or more of these routes intersect will be suitable locations for mobility hubs.

4.2.3.1 Highway 407 and Bronte

Rapid transit lines on Bronte Road would connect with the 407 transitway at this location, serving as a key transfer point between inter-regional, regional and local transit services. A mobility hub at this location would serve the North Oakville and Greenbelt development areas of Oakville. There is high potential for the future intensification of the area.

4.2.3.2 Dundas Street and Bronte Road

This location would act as the main intersection and transfer point between the Dundas Street and Bronte Road rapid transit lines, with the mobility hub serving the Palemero Village area of Oakville. There is high potential for future intensification of this area.

4.2.3.3 Dundas Street and Third Line

Rapid transit lines along Dundas Street and Third line would intersect at this location where the proposed New Oakville Hospital will be located.

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This location would serve as a key transit hub for Glen Abbey, West Oak Trails and Palemero Village and existing residential and commercial properties at this location. There is high potential for future intensification of the area.

4.2.3.4 Upper Middle Road and Bronte

This location would serve as the intersection of the Bronte Road and Upper Middle Road rapid transit lines. There is limited potential for future intensification of the area.

4.2.3.5 Upper Middle Road and Third Line

This location would serve as the intersection of the Upper Middle Road and Third Line rapid transit lines, serving Glen Abbey and the existing Hasty Market commercial plaza. There is limited potential for future intensification of the area as the area is already built-up.

4.2.3.6 Upper Middle Road and Trafalgar

The Upper Middle Road and Trafalgar Road rapid transit routes would intersect at this location with a mobility hub at this location serving the established neighbourhoods of College Park, River Oaks and Iroquois Ridge North and South. This location is expected to be a major transfer point for transit customers due to the close proximity of Sheridan College and the numerous destinations served along the Trafalgar Road corridor including the Oakville GO Station, Midtown Oakville mobility hub and Uptown Core.

4.2.3.7 Upper Middle Road and Ford Drive / Ninth Line

The intersection of Upper Middle Road and Ninth Line would serve as a transfer point between the Upper Middle Road and Ford Drive / Ninth Line rapid transit routes serving the Iroquois Ridge North and South neighbourhoods. There is high potential for future intensification of this area.

4.2.3.8 Upper Middle Road and Highway 403

The Upper Middle Road rapid transit line and the 403 transitway would intersect at this location, acting as a major transfer point between these two lines. A mobility hub at this location would serve the southern area of Winston Park employment / industrial area, and act as an alternate mobility hub to the established Dundas Street and Highway 403 hub located further north.

4.2.3.9 Wyecroft Road and Third Line / Bronte Road

Speers Road / Cornwall Road rapid transit routes would not intersect at this location, but rather at Bronte GO Station. This would make Bronte GO Station a connection point for four rapid transit lines (Lakeshore West rail, Speers Road rapid transit, Bronte Road, and Third Line).

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4.2.3.10 Cornwall Road and Ford Drive

The Speers Road / Cornwall Road and Ford Drive / Ninth Line rapid transit lines would intersect at this location, serving the Eastlake residential area and QEW East industrial / employment areas of Oakville. This would be a transfer point between these transit routes with a limited potential for future intensification of the area.

4.2.3.11 Lakeshore Road East and Ford Drive

This is the intersection of the Lakeshore Road and Ford Drive / Ninth Line higher-order transit lines. This would be the primary transit hub for the Eastlake neighbourhood of Oakville. However, there is limited potential for intensification at this location.

4.2.3.12 Lakeshore Road East and Kerr Street

An extension of the Trafalgar Road rapid transit line exists via Kerr rapid transit on Lakeshore Road East provides north-south and east-west access to Downtown Oakville also connecting the major development nodes of Kerr Village and Midtown Oakville.

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5. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In the preceding section, it was determined that there are existing, identified and potential higher-order transit corridors in the Town. The purpose of conducting this technical analysis is to determine which of the potential corridors also warrant higher-order transit treatments.

5.1 Service and Technology Levels

Prior to conducting the technical analysis, a description of transit service and technology levels is provided. This description includes the identification of passenger volumes thresholds for implementing different types of transit technology. This is of importance because the forthcoming technical analysis evaluates each corridor’s performance against these criteria. The following describes different transit services and technologies levels that may be applicable to the Town: . Bus in Mixed Traffic: Bus service on arterial roadways. This service provides regular service throughout the days, evenings, and weekends. Examples of this service include all Oakville Transit’s grid routes identified for September 2009 service. . Bus with Transit Priority: Bus service on arterial roadways. This service provides limited stops through greater station spacing and throughout the day, especially in the peak periods. It also services off-peak periods well. Transit priority includes different treatments such as transit signal priority, transit priority signal, and queue jump lanes (as seen in Section 6.3). Examples of this include YRT’s current VIVA service and Brampton Transit’s planned Zum service. . Bus on Dedicated Lanes: Bus service on dedicated lanes refers to both high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes and reserved bus lanes (RBL). These dedicated lanes differ from busways (below) in that dedicated lanes are separated from mixed traffic via signage and pavement markings while a busway is separated from mixed traffic via a physical barrier, such as a curb. This allows the HOV lanes or RBL lanes to be in service or operational during different periods of the day; typically AM and PM peak periods. An example of an HOV lane is found on Dufferin Street between Sheppard Avenue and Finch Avenue where the lane is designated for high-occupancy vehicles in the peak periods only. In the Dufferin Street example, the HOV lane has been protected for reserved bus lanes and eventually a Busway as part of the TTC’s York University Busway service. . Bus Service on a Busway: Bus rapid transit service provided on a dedicated curb or median lane. This service provides limited stops through greater station spacing and is designed for high frequencies. Examples of this include the City of Ottawa’s transitway, and the next phase of York Region Transit’s VIVA service.

Passenger in the peak hour and peak direction (PPHPD) can be used to determine the appropriate service and technology level. Halton Region’s TMP Study identifies the following criteria as seen in Exhibit 27.

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Exhibit 27: Halton Region TMP Service and Technology Levels The minimum requirements and operating frequencies seen in Exhibit 27 are based on the assumption that peak hour service is designed for seated passengers3 only. For the purpose of this study, a conservative approach is applied. This approach assumes that to warrant the technology and infrastructure as described above, service must be designed in the peak hour for near capacity vehicles or 70 passengers per standard bus (New Flyer D40LF maximum capacity 83). The revision to Exhibit 27 is seen in Table 2. Table 2: Service and Technology Levels Minimum Maximum Operating Operating Mode / Technology Demand Demand Frequency Frequency (PPHPD) (PPHPD) (minutes) (minutes) Bus in Mixed Traffic 60 60 350 10

Bus with Transit Priority 350 10 590 6

Bus on Dedicated Lanes 590 6 880 4

Bus service on a Busway 880 4 1760 2

5.2 Model Methodology

The purpose of the technical analysis is to determine the Town’s Long-Term Rapid Transit Network in Horizon 2031 so that specific recommendations can be made that will increase transit mode shares in the long-term and subsequently partially relieve projected capacity constraints on the Town’s transportation road network. To achieve this objective, a high-level Excel Spreadsheet model was developed so that both transit mode shares and peak hour, peak direction, passenger volumes can be identified.

3 Frequency is determined by dividing capacity by PPHPD. In Exhibit 27, the dedicated lanes example assumes 42 seats times 60 minutes (or 60 buses an hour) to produce a capacity of 2,520. A capacity of 2,520 divided by a PPHPD of 500 equals 5 minutes.

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5.2.1 Transit Mode Shares

The objective of developing the model is to determine the impact, measured in transit mode shares, of higher-order transit in the Town and in neighbouring municipalities in 2021 and 2031. To achieve this objective, the model identifies observed transit mode shares for the identified service and technology levels (Table 2) from the Town, where applicable, and the GTHA found in the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey. These transit mode shares are refined to develop a range of transit mode shares for each transit technology based on population ranges at the zone of origin and employment ranges at the zone of destination. These figures are further refined depending on trip purpose (work, school, other). A detailed description can be found in Appendix A.

5.2.2 Peak Hour Passenger Volumes

The objective of determining passengers per peak hour per peak direction (PPHPD) is to identify which potential rapid transit corridors in the Town warrant higher-order transit treatments as evaluated via the previously identified criteria. The process to identify peak hour passenger volumes is conducted by adding the Town’s potential rapid transit corridors (the grid transit corridors), as seen in Exhibit 28, to the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network in Horizon 2021 and Horizon 2031, as seen in Exhibit 29 and Exhibit 30. A detailed description of this process can be found in Appendix B.

Exhibit 28: Potential Rapid Transit Corridors

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Exhibit 29: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network 2021

Exhibit 30: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network 2031

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To determine the Long-Term Strategic Transit Network the model was applied in a sequential process to two scenarios. The purpose of the first scenario is to determine which of the potential corridors require transit enhancements. To determine this the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network was run through the model as a first scenario to mirror the status quo as described in Step 1 and Step 2 below: . Step 1: input is Horizon 2021 (Exhibit 29) and its output is PPHPD which determines the appropriate service and technology level for 2021 as per Table 2. . Step 2: input is Horizon 2031 (Exhibit 30) and its output is PPHPD which determines the appropriate service and technology level for 2021 as per Table 2.

The purpose of the second scenario is to determine the impact of applying transit enhancements to the network. To determine this the output from Step 1 and Step 2 was run through the model. The outcome is described in Step 3 and Step 4 below: . Step 3: input is the output from Step 1 and its output is the impact of these transit enhancements. This is called the 2021 Long-Term Rapid Transit Network . Step 4: input is the output from Step 2 and its output is the impact of these transit enhancements. This is called the 2031 Long-Term Rapid Transit Network

This process is illustrated in Exhibit 31.

Exhibit 31: Model Methodology

5.2.3 Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network

The Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network is comprised of existing and identified rapid transit corridors in the Town and neighbouring municipalities. The following sections identify and explain the results for Horizon 2021 and Horizon 2031.

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5.2.3.1 Horizon 2021 (Step 1)

In Horizon 2021, the following transit service levels and technology levels were assigned to the potential corridors as seen in Exhibit 29: . Dundas Street: Bus on Dedicatd Lanes (as per Metrolinx) . Upper Middle Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Lakeshore Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Bronte Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Third Line: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Kerr Street: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Trafalgar Road: Bus on Dedicatd Lanes (as per Metrolinx) . Ninth Line / Ford Drive: Bus in Mixed Traffic

In Horizon 2021, the aforementioned corridors generate the following PPHPD and frequency in the peak hour as shown in Table 3. Table 3:Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 PPHPD and Frequency Demand Frequency Corridor Peak Direction Segment (PPHPD)4 (Minutes)5 Dundas EB: Third to Trafalgar 600 6 Upper Middle EB: Ninth to 403 200 18 Wyecroft / Speers / Cornwall EB: Third to Trafalgar 380 9 Lakeshore EB: Third to Kerr/ 300 12 Bronte SB: Dundas to Upper Middle 170 21 Third SB: Upper Middle to Speers 560 6 Kerr NB: Lakeshore to Speers 290 12 Trafalgar SB: Upper Middle to Speers 830 4 Ninth / Ford NB: Lakeshore to Cornwall 100 35

As seen in Table 3, demand, measured in PPHPD, and the resulting frequency are shown. Evaluating the frequencies in Table 3 against the criteria in Table 2 determines which corridors require transit enhancements: . Dundas Street: Bus on Dedicated Lane justified . Upper Middle Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Bus with Transit Priority required . Lakeshore Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified . Bronte Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified . Third Line: Bus on Dedicated Lane required . Kerr Street: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified

4 Assumes 75% of all Oakville Transit peak hour ridership will access these routes. 5 Headway is calculated by dividing capacity crush load capacity by peak point demand. Using a New Flyer D40LF crush load capacity is 4,800 (80 load times 60 minutes).

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. Trafalgar Road: Busway required . Ninth Line / Ford Drive: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified

The preceding transit enhancements represent the outputs of the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network. As identified in Exhibit 31, these transit enhancements will be used as input into Step 3.

Table 4 identifies the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network’s transit mode shares in 2006 and Horizon 2021. As seen, the inclusion of dedicated lanes on Dundas and Trafalgar has a positive impact on transit mode shares.

For transit trips originating in Oakville to neighbouring municipalities, work trips, school trips and other trips all increase.

For transit trips destined to Oakville from neighbouring municipalities, more drastic increases are observed. This is because in Horizon 2021, GO Transit’s Highway 403 transitway and Highway 407 transitway are in operation, connecting people from other communities on the periphery of Downtown Toronto to Oakville.

Also of significance are transit trips within Oakville, where transit mode shares. This shows that strong transit connections within a municipality can provide a viable alternative to the automobile.

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Table 4: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 Transit Mode Shares

5.2.3.2 Horizon 2031 (Step 2)

Continuing with the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network, in Horizon 2031 the following transit service and technology levels were assigned to the potential corridors as seen in Exhibit 30: . Dundas Street: Bus on Dedicatd Lanes (as per Metrolinx) . Upper Middle Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Lakeshore Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic

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. Bronte Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Third Line: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Kerr Street: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Trafalgar Road: Bus on Dedicatd Lanes (as per Metrolinx) . Ninth Line / Ford Drive: Bus in Mixed Traffic

In Horizon 2031, the aforementioned corridors generate the following PPHPD and frequency in the peak hour as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2031 PPHPD and Frequency Demand Frequency Corridor Peak Direction Segment (PPHPD) (Minutes) Dundas EB: Third to Trafalgar 900 4 Upper Middle EB: Ninth to 403 290 12 Wyecroft / Speers / Cornwall EB: Third to Trafalgar 500 7 Lakeshore EB: Third to Kerr 410 9 Bronte SB: Dundas to Upper Middle 230 15 Third SB: Upper Middle to Speers 740 5 Kerr NB: Lakeshore to Speers 400 9 Trafalgar SB: Upper Middle to Speers 1,220 3 Ninth / Ford NB: Lakeshore to Cornwall 130 27

In Horizon 2031, as seen in Table 5, the following is observed:

As seen in Table 5, demand, measured in PPHPD, and the resulting frequencies are shown. Evaluating the frequencies in Table 5 against the criteria in Table 2 determines which corridors require transit enhancements: . Dundas Street: Busway required . Upper Middle Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Bus with Transit Priority required . Lakeshore Road: Bus with Transit Priority required . Bronte Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified . Third Line: Bus on Dedicated Lane required . Kerr Street: Bus with Transit Priority required . Trafalgar Road: Busway required . Ninth Line / Ford Drive: Bus in Mixed Traffic justified

As identified in Exhibit 31, these transit enhancements will be used as input into Step 4.

Table 6 identifies the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network’s transit mode shares in 2006, Horizon 2021, and Horizon 2031. As seen, the increases from Horizon 2021 to

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Horizon 2031 are not as great as from 2006 to Horizon 2021. And this is intuitive as no other service and technology level adjustments are made.

For transit trips originating in Oakville to neighbouring municipalities, work trips, school trips and other trips all increase.

For transit trips destined to Oakville from neighbouring municipalities, slight increases are observed. This is because no new inter-regional improvements are made in Horizon 2031. For transit trips within Oakville, mode shares continue to increase.

Table 6: Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2031 Transit Mode Shares

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5.2.4 Long-Term Rapid Transit Network

The purpose of identifying a Long-Term Transit Network is to understand the Town’s long- term transit requirements so that specific recommendations can be made that will increase transit mode shares in the long-term and subsequently partially relieve projected capacity constraints on the Town’s transportation road network.

The Long-Term Transit Network is based on the findings of the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network analysis in Horizon 2021 and Horizon 2031. As noted, this is because the output from Step 1 is the input for Step 3, and the output for Step 2 is the input for Step 4. The following section identifies service and technology improvements for the Town’s potential rapid transit corridors for Horizon 2021 and Horizon 2031.

5.2.4.1 Horizon 2021 (Step 3)

In Horizon 2021, the following transit service and technology levels were assigned to the potential rapid transit corridors in the Town as identified in the output of Step 1: . Dundas Street: Bus on Dedicated Lanes . Upper Middle Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Bus with Transit Priority . Lakeshore Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Bronte Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Third Line: Bus on Dedicatd Lanes . Kerr Street: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Trafalgar Road: Busway . Ninth Line / Ford Drive: Bus in Mixed Traffic

In Horizon 2021, the aforementioned corridors generate the following PPHPD and frequency in the peak hour as shown in Table 7.

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Table 7: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 PPHPD and Frequency Demand Frequency Corridor Peak Direction Segment (PPHPD) (Minutes) Dundas EB: Third to Trafalgar 680 5 Upper Middle EB: Ninth to 403 210 17 Wyecroft / Speers / Cornwall EB: Third to Trafalgar 430 8 Lakeshore EB: Third to Kerr 340 10 Bronte SB: Dundas to Upper Middle 190 18 Third SB: Upper Middle to Speers 660 5 Kerr NB: Lakeshore to Speers 320 11 Trafalgar SB: Upper Middle to Speers 1,010 3 Ninth / Ford NB: Lakeshore to Cornwall 110 32

In Horizon 2021, as seen in Table Table 8: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – 7, the modifications to Speers, Horizon 2021 Transit Mode Shares Third, and Trafalgar have an impact on the corridor itself and on other corridors when compared to the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network’s Horizon 2021 (Table 3). Of note, is the impact seen on Lakeshore, which in Horizon 2021 generates 340 PPHPD and a 10 minute frequency. This suggests that Lakeshore should be transitioned to transit priority measures soon after Horizon 2021 rather than closer to Horizon 2031 as originally calculated.

Table 8 shows the Long-Term Rapid Transit Network transit mode shares in Horizon 2021. As seen, the increase to transit mode shares in Horizon 2021 in the Long-Term Rapid Transit Network is greater than the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network in Horizon 2021. The Long-Term Rapid Transit Network is illustrated in Exhibit 32.

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Exhibit 32: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network 2021

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5.2.4.2 Horizon 2031 (Step 4)

Continuing with the Long-Term Rapid Transit Network, in Horizon 2031 the following transit service and technology levels were assigned to the Town’s potential rapid transit corridors as identified in the output of Step 2: . Dundas Street: Busway . Upper Middle Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Bus with Transit Priority . Lakeshore: Bus with Transit Priority . Bronte Road: Bus in Mixed Traffic . Third Line: Bus on Dedicated Lanes . Kerr Street: Bus with Transit Priority . Trafalgar Road: Busway . Ninth Line / Ford Drive: Bus in Mixed Traffic

In Horizon 2031, the aforementioned corridors generate the following PPHPD and frequency in the peak hour as shown in Table 9. Table 9: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2031 PPHPD and Frequency Demand Frequency Corridor Peak Direction Segment (PPHPD) (Minutes) Dundas EB: Third to Trafalgar 1,200 3 Upper Middle EB: Ninth to 403 310 11 Wyecroft / Speers / EB: Third to Trafalgar 540 7 Cornwall Lakeshore EB: Third to Kerr 520 7 Bronte SB: Dundas to Upper Middle 250 14 Third SB: Upper Middle to Speers 780 5 Kerr NB: Lakeshore to Speers 500 7 Trafalgar SB: Upper Middle to Speers 1,780 2 Ninth / Ford NB: Lakeshore to Cornwall 170 21

In Horizon 2031, as seen in Table 9, the modifications to Speers, Lakeshore, Third, Kerr and Trafalgar have an impact on the corridor itself and on other corridors when compared to the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network’s Horizon 2031 (Table 5).

Table 10 shows the Long-Term Rapid Transit Network transit mode shares in Horizon 2031. As seen, the increase in transit mode shares in the Long-Term Rapid Transit Network’s Horizon 2031 is greater than the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network’s Horizon 2031. This is intuitive as service and technology level enhancements are made to Dundas (Busway), Speers (Transit Priority Measures), Lakeshore (Transit Priority Measures), Kerr (Transit Priority Measures), Third (Dedicated Lanes), and Trafalgar (Busway).

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Table 10: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network – Horizon 2021 Transit Mode Shares

The Long-Term Rapid Transit Network is illustrated in Exhibit 33. As seen, in Horizon 2031 the following rapid transit treatments are applied: . Dundas Street: Busway (Tremaine Road to Winston Churchill Boulevard) . Wyecroft Road / Speers Road / Cornwall Road: Transit Priority Measures . Lakeshore: Transit Priority Measures . Third Line: HOV lanes (Lakshore Road to Dundas Street) . Kerr Street: Transit Priority Measures . Trafalgar Road: Busway (Wyecroft Road to Highway 407)

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Exhibit 33: Long-Term Rapid Transit Network 2031

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6. RECOMMENDATIONS

The objective of the Town of Oakville – Transit Strategy is to make specific recommendations that will increase transit mode shares in the long-term and subsequently partially relieve projected capacity constraints on the Town’s transportation road network as identified in Phase 1 Transportation Overview Study and the Oakville TMP 2007.

6.1 Corridors

The following recommendations collectively comprise a rapid transit strategy that improve transportation in the Town, Halton Region and the western Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and thus require participation from multiple levels of government. Table 11 summarizes the findings of the Town of Oakville – Transit Strategy and makes recommendations for 2021 and 2031. Table 11: Transit Service and Technology Recommendations Corridor Horizon Mode / Technology Segment . From Tremaine Road to Winston Churchill Boulevard can commence with Bus on 2021 an HOV lane with pavement mrkings and signage and easily be Dedicated Lanes Dundas transitioned into an RBL as warranted. Street . From Tremaine Road to Winston Churchill Boulevard transition dedicated 2031 Busway lane into a busway by constructing a physical barrier (curb) between mixed traffic and the busway. Bus in 2021 . From Tremaine Road to Winston Churchill Boulevard. Upper Mixed Traffic Middle Road Bus in 2031 . From Tremaine Road to Winston Churchill Boulevard. Mixed Traffic Wyecroft . From Bronte GO to Third Line transit signal priority can be implemented. Bus with Road 2021 (If GO Transit constructs access to Bronte GO via Speers, the Wyecroft Transit Priority Measures Road option would moves to Speers Road.

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Corridor Horizon Mode / Technology Segment Bus with . From Bronte GO to Third Line additional Transit Priority Measures such 2031 Transit Priority Measures as a queue jump lane can be constructed. . From Third Line to Winston Churchill (transit signal priority integration Bus with Speers 2021 required with the City of Mississauga to access Clarkson GO Station) Transit Priority Measures Road / . Extend to Bronte GO, if GO Transit constructs access via Speers. Cornwall . From Third Line to Winston Churchill (transit signal priority integration Bus with Road 2031 required with the City of Mississauga to access Clarkson GO Station) Transit Priority Measures . Extend to Bronte GO, if GO Transit constructs access via Speers. Bus in 2021 . From Bronte Road to Ford Drive. Mixed Traffic Lakeshore . From Bronte Road to Dunn Street transit priority measures including Road Bus with signal priority at all major intersections and queue jump lanes where 2031 Transit Priority Measures appropriate. East of the Downtown terminal to Ford Drive service would be delivered as buses in mixed traffic. . From Highway 407 (or further north depending on subsequent studies) to 2021 Bus on Dedicated Lanes Dundas Street a Reserved Bus Lane is required. Bronte Road . From Highway 407 (or further north depending on subsequent studies) a 2031 Busway Busway is required. . From Dundas Street to Wyecroft Road (or Speers, if access available to 2021 Bus on Dedicated Lanes Bronte GO) a dedicated lane for HOV travel is required. Criteria could be 2 or more people initially. Third Line . From Dundas Street to Wyecroft Road (or Speers, if access available to 2031 Bus on Dedicated Lanes Bronte GO) a dedicated lane for HOV travel is required. Criteria could be transitioned to 3 or more people.

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Corridor Horizon Mode / Technology Segment

2021 Busway . From Cornwall Road to 407 Transitway Trafalgar Road 2031 Busway . From Cornwall Road to 407 Transitway

. From Speers Road to Rebecca Street 2021 Bus in Mixed Traffic . On Randall, from Kerr Street to Dunn Street Kerr . On Church, from Navy Street to Dunn Street (eastbound only) Street . From Speers Road to Rebecca Street Bus with 2031 . On Randall, from Kerr Street to Dunn Street Transit Priority Measures . On Church, from Navy Street to Dunn Street (eastbound only)

2021 Bus in Mixed Traffic . From Upper Middle Road to Lakeshore Road Ninth Line / Ford Drive 2031 Bus in Mixed Traffic . From Upper Middle Road to Lakeshore Road

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6.1.1 Kerr Street (Midtown and Downtown Rapid Connection)

Providing a rapid transit connection through the use of transit priority measures between Midtown Oakville and Downtown Oakville is a critical component of the Town of Oakville’s Transit Strategy as noted throughout the study. Currently, conventional transit connections between Midtown and Downtown exist via: . Reynolds Street (Route 14) . Kerr Street (Route 17)

However, not all conventional transit routes can necessarily transition to rapid transit effectively. For example as with Reynolds Street and Trafalgar (south of Cornwall), in the absence of road widening, the current two lane road (one in each direction) would create operational issues for high frequency buses that must share the roadway with autos. In effect, this would negate any benefit that could be achieved with transit priority measures such transit signal priority.

In the case of Kerr Street, this obstacle can be overcome by transitioning curb side parking into a traffic lane (even if only in peak periods). In addition, planning rapid transit along Kerr would achieve planning objectives as the Town’s growth areas of Midtown Oakville, Kerr Village and Downtown Oakville would be connected with a rapid service as seen in Exhibit 34.

Exhibit 34: Kerr Street Routing

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One of the possible routing options that Oakville Transit may consider is a variation of the current Route 17 routing. This variation could use Rebecca to access the Downtown. Specific actions that can be taken to facilitate the extension of Trafalgar BRT to Downtown Oakville under this potential routing option are: . Kerr Street: On-street parking could be restricted to off-peak hours only. In peak hours, parking could be used as bus only lanes. . Church Street/Dunn Street: Further developed by acquiring land currently used as parking on Church between George Street and Dunn Street. . Transit Signal Priority: Transit signal priority can be implemented along the route.

It should be noted that implementing transit priority infrastructure along the aforementioned roads allows for multiple routes to make use of the infrastructure. For example, the following routes could use transit priority measures along Kerr – Church - Dunn: . Route 17 (as is) . Route 1 (via either an extension or a route branch) . Route 4 (via either a route deviation or a route branch)

6.2 Mobility Hubs

The Town’s Long-Term Rapid Transit Network will require a number of transfer stations to facilitate rapid transit connections. The following is a list of these required facilities: . Trafalgar-407 Transitway: In the short-term, provide input to GO Transit as to the future requirements of Oakville Transit at a bus turnaround and shelter at Trafalgar 407 car pool lot. This station provides connections with GO Transit’s 407 Transitway service which connects passengers to Brampton, and York Region. . New Oakville Hospital: In the short-term, continue to provide input to the New Oakville Hospital design process. This means identifying a transit station at the New Oakville Hospital for connections between Dundas BRT, Third Line, and local bus routes. Hospitals are large trip generators as they employ hundreds of people. . Dundas-403 Transitway: In the short-term begin planning for a car pool lot that includes bus turnaround and shelter at Dundas and 403. This station provides connections with GO Transit’s 403 Transitway service which connects passengers to Mississauga City Centre and Pearson Airport.

6.3 Transit Priority Measures6

There are a number of transit priority measures that could be applied to Speers Road / Cornwall Road, Lakeshore Road, and Kerr Street. Transit priority measures are techniques designed to minimize delays to buses at intersections and along congested roads ensuring a faster commute time for passengers. The following transit priority measures can be implemented:

6 Transport Canada Program: Putting Buses First (http://www.tc.gc.ca/programs/environment/utsp/puttingbusesfirst.htm)

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Transit Signal Priority: This allows buses to arrive and travel through intersections with little or no delay. Detectors identify and distinguish buses from other vehicles. The detectors then give priority to the buses by manipulating the traffic lights to give the buses a green light.

Transit Priority Signal: This allows transit vehicles to enter intersections ahead of other traffic. A separate signal located within the traffic light alerts the transit vehicle that it can enter the intersection. This “cigar signal” allows the transit vehicle to jump the queue and enter the intersection first. It creates the necessary space for the bus to merge into regular traffic.

Left Turn from Curb Lane: Where left turn lanes are congested, buses are allowed to make left turns from the curb lane. Lane designation signs and special turning provisions help keep transit vehicles moving efficiently.

Queue Jump with Advance Stop Bar: Allows transit vehicles to pull ahead of regular traffic that is stopped at an intersection. Stop lines are located back from the intersection. Vehicles stop further back from the intersection, which allows transit vehicles the opportunity to pull in front of the traffic. This could be applied when near-side stops are required.

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The cost of individual transit priority measures vary based on context. For example, installing transit signal priority at an intersection could cost between $3,000 to $5,000 when done as part of another project or as much as $25,000 to $35,000 to upgrade detector loops and controllers at an existing intersection. Similarly, installing an intersection queue jump could cost as little as $5,000 where an existing road lane can be dedicated to buses, or well over $100,000 where the project requires road widening, signal pole relocation or other construction work.

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GLOSSARY OF TERMS

Busway: An arterial or highway, or lane of arterial or highway, set aside for the exclusive use of buses

Home-Other Trips: Trips that originate within the zone that the trip takers home is located and are destined to the zone that the trip takers activity is taken (leisure/shopping/medical) is located.

Home-School Trips: Trips that originate within the zone that the trip takers home is located and are destined to the zone that the trip takers school (all schools) is located.

Home-Work Trips: Trips that originate within the zone that the trip takers home is located and are destined to the zone that the trip takers work is located.

HOV Lane: High occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane is a lane set aside for the exclusive use of vehicles with more than 1 passenger

Passengers per Peak Hour per Peak Direction: The number of transit passengers travelling during the busiest hour of the peak period in the peak direction. This figure helps determine vehicle frequencies, given a vehicle capacity.

Peak Direction: In the peak hour, the direction travelled by the greatest number of people (can be used in reference to all modes of transportation or a single mode such as transit)

Peak Hour: Within the peak period, the hour where the greatest number of people travel (can be used in reference to all modes of transportation or a single mode such as transit)

Peak Period: The period within the AM and PM that the greatest number of people travel (typically 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM and 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM) (can be used in reference to all modes of transportation or a single mode such as transit)

Queue Jump Lanes: Is a lane that allows transit vehicles to pull ahead of regular traffic that is stopped at an intersection by forcing automobiles further back from the intersection.

Rapid Transit: A transit system that uses either technology or roadway improvements to increase speed over operating in mixed traffic. Examples include Bus rapid transit, light rail transit, subway and commuter rail

Reserved Bus Lane: An arterial or highway lane set aside for the exclusive use of buses at certain times of the day

Transit Mode Share: The percent of total trips by all modes of transportation taken by public transit

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Transit Priority Measures: A number of different transit treatments that can be implemented including (transit signal priority, transit priority signal, queue jump lanes)

Transit Priority Signal: Is a technology where buses are given an advanced traffic signal to proceed through an intersection before mixed traffic thereby speeding up bus travel times.

Transit Signal Priority: Is a technology where buses are given preference at traffic signals, either anytime they arrive at the intersection or only under certain conditions (e.g., on-time status, amount of traffic on other intersecting roads) thereby speeding up bus travel times.

Transportation Tomorrow Survey: Is a travel survey that collects information on how members of a household use the transportation system in the GTHA. Surveys have been undertaken in 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006. The resulting information widely used in literally hundreds of transportation planning studies.

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Appendix A Model Methodology

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MODEL METHODOLOGY

Approach

The model methodology applied to the Town of Oakville – Transit Strategy uses a high-level analysis in order to estimate 2021 and 2031 transit shares in Oakville.

The approach groups transit shares to and from each traffic zone in Oakville, according to four categories: 1. Population density – that is, population per km2. 2. Employment density – employment per km2. 3. Trip purpose. 4. Transit level of service.

The four categories comprise high-level determinants of transit demand. This is explained as follows: The share of transit tends to rise with increased densities at the home end (i.e., represented by population) and at the work end (represented by employment). Moreover, for a given trip purpose, the transit share also increases with the level of service, which is represented by different combinations of rail and bus modes and technologies. Finally, the transit share varies according to trip purpose.

A three-hour AM peak period was used for this analysis. As discussed below, the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey was used as the basis for the analysis. Shares also were vetted against conditions from Ottawa and Montreal.

This approach developed a spreadsheet model for this study. Timing and the high-level approach to this study meant that a spreadsheet approach was well-suited for this analysis. Of course, this spreadsheet tool is not intended to replace the use of a properly-developed travel demand forecasting model, which is necessary for detailed analysis. However, such details would be appropriate for subsequent, more focused planning studies.

Type No. of Description Comment categories 2 Population / km 5 . Low (< 2,500 / km2) . Low, medium and high categories . Medium (< 5,000 / km2) reflect densities outside LBDs . High (< 10,000 / km2) (Local Business Districts, e.g. . LBD (< 20,000 / km2) Yonge / Sheppard) and CBDs (Central Business Districts, e.g. . CBD (≥ 20,000 / km2) downtown Toronto)

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Type No. of Description Comment categories 2 Employment / km 5 . Low (< 2,500 / km2) . Low, medium and high categories . Medium (< 5,000 / km2) reflect densities other than LBDs . High (< 10,000 / km2) (Local Business Districts, e.g. . LBD (< 20,000 / km2) Yonge / Sheppard) and CBDs (Central Business Districts, e.g. . CBD (≥ 20,000 / km2) downtown Toronto) Trip purpose 3 . HBW (Home-based work) . The home-work commute typically . HBS (Home-based school) has the highest transit shares. . HBO (Home-based other) . HBS has moderate transit shares . All other home-based trips are categorized under HBO. . Non-home-based trips are relatively few in the AM peak period and, accordingly, are not considered in this analysis. Transit level of 6 . Subway . Subway: TTC service . Commuter rail . Commuter rail: GO Rail . Busway . Busway: Spadina / St. Clair . Bus on Dedicatd Lanes streetcars, which operate in . Buses with transit priority dedicated rights-of-way along . Bus in Mixed Traffic arterials, and exemplify the type of service that might be offered on Trafalgar with a bus service . Bus on dedicated lanes example Dufferin HOV . Buses with transit priority: TTC 7 Bathurst and 29 Dufferin bus routes operate in corridors that have transit signal priority treatments.7 (This category was included at the request of the City of Mississauga, to allow for possible future implementation.) . Bus in Mixed Traffic: Oakville Transit, Mississauga Transit,

Proxy Transit Shares

The 2006 TTS data were used to develop proxy transit shares for the different combinations of the four categories. As a result, the proxy transit shares reflect current and local (that is, GTHA) conditions.

7 Jim Sinikas of the TTC indicated that over 350 traffic control signals are equipped with transit priority capability, both for mixed traffic bus and streetcar operations and streetcar operations in dedicated right-of-way. All TTC streetcar routes are equipped with signal priority. The 7 Bathurst and 29 Dufferin bus routes are equipped with priority, and this treatment will be activated on selected routes.

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Oakville transit shares were used as the proxies where possible (mainly for express and local bus). However, these were replaced by shares from similar proxies elsewhere in the GTHA if the latter were higher – this reflects the aim of the analysis, which was to identify the potential market share, if the conditions represented by the four categories were in place, based upon observed conditions in the GTHA or elsewhere. (As noted, the results were vetted against similar data from Ottawa and Montreal for reasonableness.)

For the different combinations of the four attributes, transit shares were tabulated from the 2006 TTS by capturing the total trips and total transit trips (by purpose) to or from a reasonable catchment area surrounding the given station or route.

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Appendix B Peak Hour Passenger Volumes Methodology

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PEAK HOUR PASSENGER VOLUMES The following is a technical note that explains the process and assumptions used to calculate peak hour passenger volumes for the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network, and the Long-Term Rapid Transit Network.

Aggregate Zones: The Town of Oakville’s 56 traffic zones were aggregated to 21 zones zone based on the Town of Oakville’s Urban Structure Map.

Existing, Identified and Potential Corridors: The existing, identified and potential corridors were imposed on the aggregated zone map.

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Segmenting Corridors: Each corridor was segmented into unique pieces. For example, Dundas Street was segmented into 8 pieces (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5, W1, W2, W3, W4, W5)

Tracing Routes: The aggregated zone and corridor segment map was then used to trace the most likely path an individual would take from an origin to a destination.

For more complex traces, the following assumptions were used: . When presented with a choice, an individual will take the fastest technology available. . An individual will make the least amount of transfers possible. . All individuals travelling from an origin to a destination take the same path.

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Assigning Riders per Segment: With traces established, the model was run in four times to represent four states (Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network 2021, Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network 2031, Long-Term Rapid Transit Network 2021, and Long- Term Rapid Transit Network 2031). The transit trips that each state generated were then allotted to each segment. To account for peak hour, a 60% factor was used that reflects best practices documented in the Canadian Urban Transit Association’s Canadian Transit Hand Book. As seen in the snapshot below of the Existing and Identified Rapid Transit Network 2021, all occurrences of total transit trips were summed and then added to the segment. The greatest segment value represents the peak hour, peak direction, passenger volume. The figures reported in the report reflect the conservative state. This assumes that 75% of all local transit use will transfer on to the grid network to complete their trip. The pessimistic state is set at 60% and the optimistic state at 90%.

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