Once, the superpowers had a lock on satellite imagery. No more. Crowding In on or decades, satellite photogra- Fphy of Earth was the product of multibillion-dollar intelligence sys- the tems conceived, built, and operated by the superpowers. Beginning with the Corona program in the 1960s, the US closely followed Russian strategic forces, particularly ICBM deploy- ments. Russia’s intelligence “birds” did much the same thing in the relentless, High silent war that ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. With the end of the Cold War has come a new development: commer- cialization of spy-satellite technology. Today, satellite imagery is no longer the exclusive domain of two superpowers. France, Canada, Japan, India, and the Ground European Union also operate civil or commercial remote-sensing systems capable of taking low- or medium- resolution photographs and making them available on the international market. Within the next several years, even more capable nonmilitary satellites will go online, and the nations and companies that operate them will open up shop to market space pictures. The Department of Commerce es- timates that by 2000, the growing remote-sensing industry—satellite By Bill Gertz producers, ground stations, imagery sellers, and other components—will be a market worth more than $2.65 billion. Other analysts think the value of the market in 2000 could be as high as $5 billion. Many of the new satellites will be capable of producing images having a resolution of one meter or less, meaning ground objects of about three feet in diameter will be recognizable in the photographic take. New com- mercial imagery also will be available in a matter of days, not the weeks or
38 AIR FORCE Magazine / April 1997 Figure 1: Today’s Civil/Commercial Sensors counter that? I guarantee in the near future this threat will emerge.” Resolution Mr. Davis also noted that Pentagon Country System Sensor Status (meters) support for the US commercial space US...... Landsat 4...... EO, MS...... OP...... 30 launch program is “a real success US...... Landsat 5...... EO, MS...... OP...... 30 story.” France...... SPOT 1, 2, 3...... EO, PC...... OP...... 10 “Through time, the Department of Defense, particularly the Air Force, France...... SPOT 1, 2, 3...... EO, MS...... OP...... 20 has acted as an excellent steward, Russia...... IMSAT...... EO, PC...... OP...... 1 maintaining America’s ability to access Russia...... IMSAT...... EO, MS...... OP...... 10 space—not just for national security Russia...... Photogeo-2...... film...... A/IN...... 2 missions but for civil and commercial Russia...... ALMAZ...... SAR...... A/IN...... 15 activities as well,” Mr. Davis told the Russia...... Resurs F1...... EO, MS...... A/IN...... 170 House Science Committee’s Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee in June. Russia...... Resurs F2...... EO, MS...... A/IN...... 170 The value of satellite imagery is Canada...... Radarsat...... SAR...... OP...... 8 obvious: It is essential for providing Japan...... ADEOS...... EO, PC...... OP...... 8 accurate targeting for missiles, wheth Japan...... ADEOS...... EO, MS...... OP...... 16 er ballistic or cruise. It also provides Japan...... JERS-1...... EO, MS...... OP...... 18 bomber pilots with advance views of Japan...... JERS-1...... SAR...... OP...... 18 routes and details of individual targets. Bomb and missile damage could also India...... IRS-1A, -1B, -1C...... EO, PC...... OP...... 6 be assessed with satellite pictures. India...... IRS-P2, -P3...... EO, MS...... OP...... 36 A rogue state like Libya, or even EU...... ERS-1, -2 ...... SAR...... OP...... 30 a state-backed terrorist group like A/IN=archived or inoperative Islamic Jihad, might be able to acquire EO=electro-optical OP=operational, in orbit detailed satellite photographs of US IR=infrared PC=panchromatic Central Command’s bases in Saudi SAR=synthetic aperture radar MS=multispectral Arabia or Bahrain and use the data, along with information from GPS satellites, to program the bases’ exact coordinates into the guidance system months that it takes to fill customer Robert V. Davis, deputy under sec of a cruise missile obtained from Iran orders today. retary of defense for Space, watches the or China. trend very closely. “Iridium, Global- Thirty More star, ICO, Spaceway, Teledesic—the A Certainty US intelligence officials say that, list is becoming endless,” he said. “In “That’s going to happen,” predicts by 2000, the new purveyors of high- 10 years, in the commercial market, one government contractor involved quality, high-resolution satellite ca- you’ll be able to buy direct broadcast, in remote sensing. “Anything that is pabilities available for domestic use worldwide point-to-point handheld fixed can be targeted.” or for sale to others will include communications, private [Very Small Terrorist groups could acquire Israel, Pakistan, China, Brazil, Italy, Aperture Terminal] networks, space- high-resolution imagery to gain in- Spain, Germany, Ukraine, South Ko- borne wide-area computer nets, and formation for planning attacks on rea, and the United Arab Emirates. process switched bandwidth capacity routes used by assassination targets In all, the US expects that as many at nearly [extremely high] frequen- or to learn vulnerable points to plant as 30 nations will have indigenous cies—all from the privacy of your explosives for maximum damage remote-sensing industries, according own home or from the local terrorist or casualties. Additionally, weather- to a report last year by the consulting training camp.” related imagery could assist terrorists group KPMG Peat Marwick, “The Mr. Davis went on, “Imagine a in planning deadly biological weapons Satellite Remote Sensing Industry: scenario of any individual in a remote or poison-gas attacks. A Global Review.” corner of the world being able to Imagery could also provide foreign The proliferation of high-resolution order and download a GPS [Global governments or corporations with a imagery around the world is under way Positioning System] benchmark im- valuable tool for economic espionage and has many positive commercial age of any target in near–real time operations. Corporate competitors might applications, from assisting in natural from any computer hooked into the find high-resolution photographs of a disaster relief to helping farmers plant global information infrastructure via foreign competitor’s manufacturing crops, but access to close-up pictures is direct satellite connections. What if facilities useful. a dual-use technology with extremely that individual also has access to a The Pentagon is looking at how the valuable military applications. Wider GPS-guided weapon, say a Cessna emergence of space-capable adversaries distribution of this technology brings with GPS-loaded autopilot with con- will affect warfighting doctrine. with it potential threats that trouble ventional weapons? What could he “While we are developing an effec- the Pentagon. do, and what should we be doing to tive spacepower strategy, the capabili-
AIR FORCE Magazine / April 1997 39 ties and the systems that support our of commercial satellite imagery. “We used by nations, criminal and terror- strategy are coming into the hands of get paid on a day-to-day basis to think ist groups, or even foreign economic not just our global peers but the rest through worst-case scenarios so we can spies who can exploit the technology of the world as well,” Mr. Davis said. develop countermeasures,” he noted. for nefarious aims. “How do we truly integrate space into A major worry is that satellite “Clearly to the extent that any party, our warfighting doctrine and terrestrial imagery will be combined with GPS whether it’s a sovereign nation or a operations, and how do we prepare for capability to develop precision guided terrorist or a commercial firm, can see the time in the not-too-distant future munitions. pictures of something they otherwise when we face adversaries that use space “If you take remote sensing, where would not see, that information can be nearly as well as we do?” you have specific information on spe- put to good purposes or bad purposes,” DoD officials said that one of the cific places that is becoming more and Mr. Davis said. several US companies entering the more readily available, the potential commercial remote-sensing industry for that information to be not just in Two Types already has been contacted by several picture format but in digitized, three- Earth-imaging satellites today fall foreign governments seeking to pur- dimensional data, and you tie that into two general categories. The first chase future satellite imagery. to GPS, we need to pay particular type produces its images with electro- Mr. Davis is careful to note that he attention to the threat down the road optical cameras—machines similar does not see “the sky falling” because to what may be the poor man’s cruise to television cameras that transmit of commercial remote sensing but missile,” Mr. Davis said. digital images to Earth. These systems added that DoD officials must look The widespread proliferation of produce images from visible light or at worst-case scenarios for the misuse high-resolution satellite imagery could be “multispectral” images—those derived from unseen light, such as infrared or ultraviolet, that are useful com- mercially for scientific research or environmental monitoring. Figure 2: Planned Civil/Commercial Sensors The second type of satellite uses synthetic aperture radar, a system Resolution that sends beams to Earth and then Country System Sensor (meters) creates high-resolution images from US...... Space Imaging...... PC...... 1 the reflections. These satellites have US...... Space Imaging...... MS...... 24 the advantage of being able to see US...... EarthWatch EarlyBird...... PC...... 3 through clouds, but their images are US...... EarthWatch EarlyBird...... MS...... 15 not as sharp. US...... EarthWatch QuickBird...... PC...... 82 By 1994, France, Russia, Israel, Brazil, China, India, and Japan had US...... EarthWatch QuickBird...... MS...... 3.28 begun developing high-resolution US...... Orbimage OrbView-3...... PC...... 1 and 2 remote-sensing satellites with com- US...... Orbimage OrbView-3...... MS...... 4 mercial applications. The competition US...... Orbimage SeaStar...... MS...... 1,100 prompted the Clinton Administration US...... Boeing Global Monitoring System...... MS...... 10 to loosen its policy on the commercial US...... GDE Systems...... PC...... 85 use of satellite imagery. In a directive, the President allowed private compa- US...... AVSat...... MS...... 1,000 nies to sell images of up to one-meter US...... Landsat 7...... PC...... 15 resolution. France...... SPOT 4...... PC...... 10 To protect US forces and military France...... SPOT 4...... MS...... 20 operations in wartime or other nation- France...... SPOT 5...... PC...... 5 al emergencies, government licenses France...... SPOT 5...... MS...... 10 require companies that market the images to permit the government to Israel...... EROS...... PC...... 1 maintain “shutter control” and would Israel...... EROS...... MS...... — cut off the flow of space imagery in India...... IRS-1D...... PC...... <6 national emergencies. India...... IRS-1D...... MS...... 20 The White House announced that India...... IRS-2...... PC...... <5 the new policy would “promote and India...... IRS-2...... SAR...... — not preclude private-sector commercial opportunities in Landsat-type remote Japan...... ALOS...... MS...... 2.5 sensing.” Landsat pictures were used Japan...... ALOS...... SAR...... — to produce the computer-generated Japan...... Mitsubishi-Lockheed...... PC...... 1 graphic simulations used by Air Force Japan...... Mitsubishi-Lockheed...... MS...... 4 pilots to plan missions into Haiti in China/Brazil...... CBERS...... MS...... 19 1994. The easing of restrictions on com- mercial remote sensing also was
40 AIR FORCE Magazine / April 1997 resolution images in two to three Figure 3: Foreign Government/Military Systems With weeks. Commercial Potential Resolution US Commercial Remote- Country/Grouping System Sensor (meters) Sensing Firms France, Italy, Spain...... Helos-1A...... EO, PC...... 5–.8 The United States is expected to emerge as the world leader in the France, Italy, Spain...... Helos-1B...... EO, PC...... <.5 commercial field within the next sev- France, Germany, eral years, according to US officials. Italy, Spain...... Helos-2...... EO, PC...... <.5 Currently, several US companies or Israel...... Ofek-3...... EO, PC...... 7 consortiums are working on high- Israel...... Ofek-4...... EO, PC...... 7 resolution commercial remote-sensing France, Germany...... Horus...... SAR...... 3–5 systems. Three are considered serious players in the emerging commercial Russia...... Mir...... EO, PC...... 2 remote-sensing industry. Russia...... Hires-2...... film, PR...... 5 One venture is Space Imaging EO- Russia...... Cosmos-2031...... film, PC...... 7 SAT, a company formed by Lockheed Russia...... Medres...... film, PC...... 1–2 Martin together with other contrac- China...... FSW1, 2, 3...... film, PC...... 1 tors, including E-Systems, Inc., with China...... Jianbing-1B...... EO, PC...... 13 years of experience in building and operating satellites for the National Ukraine...... Sich-1...... radar...... — Reconnaissance Office. The first Space South Korea...... Komsat...... PC...... 10 Imaging satellite will have the highest Germany, UAE...... Germany-EO...... EO, PC...... 1 resolution of any new US commercial Japan...... Hinomaru...... EO...... 3 remote-sensing satellite, according to Pakistan...... Pakistan-EO...... EO, PC...... 2–5 US officials. The system also will have imagery available within one day of Some systems in this table are already in orbit. Most, however, are being developed or order and is scheduled for launch from are awaiting launch. Vandenburg AFB, Calif., in December 1997 (aboard a Lockheed Martin booster). Space Imaging is already emerging prompted by the military’s growing scheduled for launch until next year. as an industry powerhouse. It acquired use of commercial imagery for its By contrast, France’s SPOT 1, 2, and the EOSAT Co. in November. EOSAT tactical operations. The Air Force, 3 satellites now in orbit can provide operates Landsat 4 and 5. The company according to Defense Department 10-meter-resolution images in two to also has the only license to sell images officials, is the biggest customer for three weeks’ time. Russia currently from India’s satellites. France’s five-meter-resolution SPOT operates a single, one-meter-resolution The first commercial, remote- satellite imagery. SPOT imagery was imagery satellite known as IMSAT imaging satellite expected to reach orbit is used by the military during Operation that, while primarily a military system, EarlyBird-1, the product of EarthWatch, Desert Storm to lay out air and missile sells pictures degraded to two-meter Inc., a consortium of WorldView Imag- raids on downtown Baghdad. resolution on the commercial market. ing Corp., Ball Aerospace and Com- Today, the Air Force’s Eagle Vision Other countries also have commer- munications Group, and other partners, program uses small portable ground cial or civil remote-sensing satellites including the Japanese company Hita- stations to convert SPOT imagery into in orbit: chi, Ltd. WorldView was formed by a tactical intelligence for field units. Canada’s Radarsat, a synthetic group of engineers who were part of The program grew out of problems aperture radar system that can pro- the Reagan Administration’s Strate- encountered in getting highly classified vide eight-meter-resolution pictures gic Defense Initiative (SDI) research satellite photographs to military com- to customers in five to 10 days. program and is taking the lead in the manders during Desert Storm. Japan’s ADEOS satellite (eight- EarlyBird-1 program. “Nobody has a purely commercial meter resolution) and JERS-1 satellite According to US officials, the Early satellite in orbit yet,” says Larry W. (18-meter resolution), both of which Bird-1 will produce three-meter- Janski, chief of Peat Marwick’s Space can make images available in two to resolution photographs in two to three and High Technology office. “People three weeks. days of order and multispectral images selling commercial imagery are us- India’s IRS-1A, -1B, and -1C with a 15-meter resolution. Early- ing data coming off of spinoffs from satellites, which can provide 5.8-me- Bird-1 will produce pictures equal government systems.” ter-resolution images in two to three in quality to those of the first Corona Landsat 4 and 5 are two current civil- weeks, and the IRS-P2 satellite, which reconnaissance satellites. ian US satellites in orbit. Landsats have can provide 36-meter-resolution im- Launch schedules for 1996 slipped, provided 30-meter-resolution images ages in three weeks. and current plans call for EarlyBird-1 since 1972. A Landsat 6 satellite failed The European Union’s ERS-1 and to be launched this spring aboard a to reach orbit in October 1993, and the -2 satellites, synthetic aperture radar converted Russian ICBM known as 15-meter-resolution Landsat 7 is not systems, which can supply 30-meter- Start-1. A second EarthWatch satellite,
AIR FORCE Magazine / April 1997 41 Japan is developing a satellite Moscow’s Creeping Blindness known as ALOS that will produce Russia’s eyes in space are going blind. In January, the Russian government an- multispectral and synthetic aperture nounced that its military satellites, which monitor the world for nuclear missile launches, radar images. The multispectral would soon be obsolete. Six of every 10 Russian spy satellites no longer operate images are expected to have an fully—a side effect of Moscow’s severe economic problems that have decimated what was once a superpower military force. image resolution of 2.5 meters and In the US, by contrast, newer generations of secret high-resolution reconnaissance will be available by 2000. Another satellites are providing sharper images of more areas at lower cost. A top-of-the-line Japanese commercial remote-sensing US spy satellite still costs about $1 billion to build and launch, but such satellites system under development is a joint are designed to be smaller, operate longer, maneuver better, and combine both im- agery—derived from photographs and radar—and signals intelligence systems that Mitsubishi–Lockheed Martin satel- provide secret information to policymakers. lite that will produce one-meter- National security missions still include monitoring the 30,000 nuclear arms of the resolution images. That system could former Soviet Union and the nuclear weapons modernization under way in China, as be launched this year. well as nuclear tests planned in India. Recent US successes captured on high-resolution images include the discovery of Israel Aircraft Industries and Core a surge in production at a Russian surface-to-air-missile plant, indicating Moscow’s Software Technologies, of California, intention to begin exporting high-performance SA-12 systems around the world. A are collaborating in a joint venture to spy satellite also spotted the presence in central China of a B-6 bomber modified produce the EROS satellite that could into a refueling tanker, confirming Beijing’s plans to extend the range of its jet fighter- bombers throughout the region. Another photograph from space revealed how North be launched this year. The EROS will Korea, despite severe economic problems, is upgrading long-range artillery units close have a one-meter resolution and will to the demilitarized zone with South Korea. The photographs were sharp enough to provide images to customers within show trucks mounted with rocket launchers parked at a base. two to three days. Reconnaissance satellites are being used to locate terrorist training camps, monitor drug trafficking production and flow, and help identify nations engaged in development Public use of high-resolution im- programs for weapons of mass destruction and missile delivery systems. agery is expected to have a profound impact on international politics, as governments no longer will be able to control spy photography obtained from space. QuickBird, is also planned. QuickBird, a less-than-one-meter resolution by Proponents of the open-skies use of adapted from SDI’s small satellite 1998, and AstroVision’s AVSat, which space photographs say rumors of mas- design, will produce sharper than will produce multispectral one-kilome- sacres in Bosnia-Hercegovina, which one-meter-resolution images in two to ter-resolution images for geophysical were eventually confirmed by military three days, and it could be launched and meteorological purposes by 1998. imagery from both aircraft and satel- sometime this year. EarthWatch plans Foreign nations also are developing lites, could have been investigated a constellation of four satellites, and commercial remote-sensing satellites. sooner by news organizations if they its strategy is to provide low-cost France plans to launch SPOT 4, which had had access to the photographs. satellites and images. is completed, in October 1997. SPOT 5 Instead, the massacres were confirmed Orbimage, a subsidiary of the Or- is being developed for launch in 2001. when pictures showed a stadium in bital Sciences Corp., is developing SPOT 4 will have a 10-meter resolu- Bosnia filled with prisoners one day OrbView-2, also known as SeaStar. tion, and SPOT 5’s highest resolution and an empty arena a few days later A multispectral imager, SeaStar will will be five meters, according to US with what appeared to be newly covered provide 1.1-kilometer-resolution pic- officials. mass graves nearby. tures for maritime uses, such as envi- India is working on two new satel- In addition to news gathering, com- ronmental monitoring, ocean fishing, lites known as IRS-1D and IRS-2. The mercial satellite imagery will have and cloud imaging. Fishing fleets could IRS-1D will provide less than six-meter a number of other applications. In follow plankton masses from space. resolution and could be in operation agriculture, for example, imagery can Landbased applications include use in this year. The IRS-2 will carry both help monitor crop yield and soil and agriculture and forestry management. an electro-optical camera capable of the impact of pests and disease during US officials said both OrbView and producing images with a resolution growing seasons. SeaStar could be in orbit this year, but of less than five meters and synthetic There is even the potential for use industry analysts say it will take longer. aperture radar. The system could be in law enforcement. High-resolution Orbimage is also developing a small in operation by 2000. images could help identify evidence satellite it calls OrbView-3, to provide China and Brazil also are expected for use in a trial. As one official re- one- and two-meter-resolution images to field a multispectral commercial marked, referring to the O. J. Simp on the commercial market within two imaging satellite known as CBERS son murder trial, “You’d be able to or three days of customers’ orders. that could be launched by October. see if there was a white Bronco, but Other US commercial satellite sys- The system will produce 19-meter- you couldn’t see someone throwing tems in development include Boeing’s resolution images. a bloody glove.” ■ 10-meter-resolution multispectral im- aging satellite known as the Global Monitoring System, which could be Bill Gertz covers national security affairs and defense for the Washington Times. available in 1999, GDE Systems satel- His most recent article for Air Force Magazine, “Terrorism and the Force,” ap- lite, which will produce images with peared in the February 1997 issue.
42 AIR FORCE Magazine / April 1997