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The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2017

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The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2017 Federal Aviation Administration The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2017 January 2017 Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2017 i Contents About the FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST) licenses and regulates U.S. commercial space launch and reentry activity, as well as the operation of non-federal launch and reentry sites, as authorized by Executive Order 12465 and Title 51 United States Code, Subtitle V, Chapter 509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch Act). FAA AST’s mission is to ensure public health and safety and the safety of property while protecting the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States during commercial launch and reentry operations. In addition, FAA AST is directed to encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries. Additional information concerning commercial space transportation can be found on FAA AST’s website: http://www.faa.gov/go/ast Cover art: Phil Smith, The Tauri Group (2017) Publication produced for FAA AST by The Tauri Group under contract. NOTICE Use of trade names or names of manufacturers in this document does not constitute an official endorsement of such products or manufacturers, either expressed or implied, by the Federal Aviation Administration. ii Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2017 GENERAL CONTENTS Executive Summary 1 Introduction 5 Launch Vehicles 9 Launch and Reentry Sites 21 Payloads 35 2016 Launch Events 39 2017 Annual Commercial Space Transportation Forecast 45 Space Transportation Law and Policy 83 Appendices 89 Orbital Launch Vehicle Fact Sheets 100 iii Contents DETAILED CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 1 INTRODUCTION . 5 THE SPACE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY . 9 THE SPACE INDUSTRY. .9 LAUNCH VEHICLES. 9 Typical Launch Vehicle Subsystems . 10 Launch Vehicle Integration and Processing . .14 Operational Orbital Launch Vehicles . 15 Operational Suborbital Launch Vehicles . .16 LAUNCH AND REENTRY SITES . 21 U.S. FEDERAL SITES. 23 FAA AST-LICENSED SITES . .25 NON-LICENSED U.S. SITES. 30 NON-U.S. SITES. 31 PAYLOADS . 35 STATE OF THE PAYLOAD INDUSTRY . 35 GLOBAL PAYLOAD INDUSTRY. 35 U.S. PAYLOAD INDUSTRY. 36 COMMERCIAL ON-ORBIT VEHICLES AND PLATFORMS. 36 2016 LAUNCH EVENTS . 39 2017 ANNUAL COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION FORECAST . 45 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. 45 METHODOLOGY. .49 COMMERCIAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SATELLITES. .50 COMMERCIAL REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES . 63 COMMERCIAL CREW AND CARGO TRANSPORTATION SERVICES. 72 OTHER COMMERCIALLY LAUNCHED SATELLITES. 77 TECHNOLOGY TEST AND DEMONSTRATION LAUNCHES . 77 FACTORS THAT AFFECT LAUNCH PROJECTIONS. 78 SPACE TRANSPORTATION LAW AND POLICY . 83 CURRENT LAW AND POLICY. .83 International Treaties. .83 U.S. Law and Policy . 84 COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION ADVISORY COMMITTEE (COMSTAC) . 86 Purpose, Scope, and 2016 Membership . 86 APPENDIX 1: DEFINITIONS AND ACRONYMS . 89 APPENDIX 2: 2016 WORLDWIDE ORBITAL LAUNCH EVENTS . 95 ORBITAL LAUNCH VEHICLE FACT SHEETS . 100 iv Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2017 v Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The size of the global space industry, which combines satellite services and ground equipment, government space budgets, and global navigation satellite services (GNSS) equipment, is estimated to be about $335 billion. At $98 billion in revenues, or about 29 percent, satellite television represents the largest segment of activity. Following satellite television are services enabled by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), which represent about $81 billion in revenues, or 24 percent. Government space budgets represent $77 billion, or 23 percent. Other satellite services (fixed and mobile satellite services, broadband, and remote sensing) generated about $30 billion in revenues, and ground equipment represents $28 billion in revenues. Satellite manufacturing generated nearly $17 billion. All of this activity would not be possible without orbital launch services. Global launch services is estimated to account for $5.4 billion of the $335 billion total, or only about 2 percent. Most of this launch activity is captive; that is, the majority of payload operators have existing agreements with launch service providers or do not otherwise “shop around” for a launch. About a third of the $5.4 billion represents internationally competed, or commercial, transactions. In 2016, service providers conducted a total of 85 orbital launches in seven countries. While this figure is elaborated upon in greater detail later in this report, there are some interesting events worthy of noting here. Since 2014, U.S. providers have begun to cut into the existing share of commercial launches occupied by Russian providers. This U.S. gain is the result of a combination of factors. An Orbital ATK Antares is prepared for the OA 5 cargo mission to the First, the entrance of International Space Station (ISS). (Source: NASA/Bill Ingalls) Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), which has been offering its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy vehicles to the global market at low prices, is attracting significant business. In addition, launch failures, quality control problems, and supply chain issues have plagued the Russian space industry, leading some customers to seek alternatives like SpaceX. Meanwhile, Europe’s Arianespace remains a steadfast provider, offering reliable services via the Ariane 5 ECA, Soyuz 2, and Vega. Sea Launch, 1 Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2017 for a time a key player but never a dominant one, has essentially ceased operations. Finally, Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Launch Services and India’s Antrix have become more aggressive at marketing their H-IIA/B and PSLV vehicles, respectively. Since about 2004, the annual number of orbital launches conducted worldwide has steadily increased. This increase has primarily been due to government activity outside the U.S., as U.S. government launches remain relatively steady. For example, retirement of the Space Shuttle in 2011 decreased the number of U.S. launches per year relative to the previous three decades. However, commercial cargo missions to the International Space Station (ISS) have helped to fill the resulting gap, along with anticipated commercial crew missions beginning in 2018. Perhaps the most notable in terms of government launch activity is China. The number of orbital launches conducted by China has steadily increased each year since 2010, with a peak of 22 launches in 2016. The China Great Wall Industry Corporation (CGWIC) has also been aggressively pursuing international clients via package deals that include satellite manufacturing and launch. These launches are not considered commercial since the launch contract is not internationally competed. In 2015, China introduced two new small-class launch vehicles, the Long March 6 and the Long March 11. In 2016, China successfully launched the Long March 5 and Long March 7, both of which were launched from a new launch site on Hainan Island. Finally, China’s human spaceflight program continues in a deliberate fashion, with the 2016 launch of its Tiangong 2 space station. The Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA) is also continuing to develop its robotic investigations of the Moon with plans for venturing further. These signs point to a robust future in Chinese spaceflight, expanding the Chinese slice of the pie. Meanwhile, the commercial launch pie has not grown significantly during the past decade; instead, the slices of the pie have changed size. Yet, there are signs the commercial launch pie may be expanding. Several new launch vehicles are being developed specifically to address what some believe Rocket Lab’s Electron is prepared for launch in 2017. (Source: is latent demand among small Rocket Lab) satellite operators. These vehicles are designed to launch payloads with masses under 500 kg (1,102 lb) to low Earth orbit (LEO). Though the price per kilogram remains high relative to larger vehicles, the value is in scheduling. Previously, these small satellites would routinely “piggyback” as a secondary payload on a launch carrying a much larger payload that would dictate the schedule and the orbital destination. Consequently, these new vehicles will give small satellite operators, especially those with constellations of many satellites, greater control over their business plans. Some of these new vehicles are in advanced stages of development, like the Electron by 2 Executive Summary Rocket Lab and LauncherOne from Virgin Galactic, with some expected to start launching payloads in 2017 and 2018. There are almost 50 proposed small launch vehicles being developed worldwide, though most are in conceptual stages. Two launch failures occurred in 2016. In August, a Long March 4C carrying a government-owned meteorological satellite called Gaofen 10 was destroyed late in the launch trajectory. The second launch failure took place in December, when a Soyuz U failed to deliver Progress MS-4 to the ISS. Only one Soyuz U remains to be launched; all further flights will take place using the upgraded Soyuz 2, which has been commercially available since 2004. There were some notable activities in 2016 relating to suborbital reusable vehicles. Blue Origin’s New Shepard vehicle successfully flew four times, launching from the company’s site in western Texas. The fourth flight, which took place on October 5, 2016, featured a test of a capsule abort and separation, and both
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