Planet Earth Taken by Hayabusa-2

Space Science in JAXA

Planet Earth May 15, 2017 taken by Hayabusa-2 Saku Tsuneta, PhD JAXA Vice President Director General, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science 2017 IAA Planetary Defense Conference, May 15-19,1 Tokyo 1 Brief Introduction of Space Science in JAXA Introduction of ISAS and JAXA • As a national center of space science & engineering research, ISAS carries out development and in-orbit operation of space science missions with other directorates of JAXA. • ISAS is an integral part of JAXA, and has close collaboration with other directorates such as Research and Development and Human Spaceflight Technology Directorates. • As an inter-university research institute, these activities are intimately carried out with universities and research institutes inside and outside Japan. ISAS always seeks for international collaboration. • Space science missions are proposed by researchers, and incubated by ISAS. ISAS plays a strategic role for mission selection primarily based on the bottom-up process, considering strategy of JAXA and national space policy. 3 JAXA recent science missions

HAYABUSA 2003-2010 AKARI(ASTRO-F)2006-2011 KAGUYA（SELENE)2007-2009 Asteroid Explorer Infrared Astronomy Lunar Exploration IKAROS 2010 HAYABUSA2 2014-2020 M-V Rocket Asteroid Explorer Solar Sail

SUZAKU(ASTRO-E2)2005- AKATSUKI 2010- X-Ray Astronomy Venus Meteorogy

ARASE 2016- HINODE(SOLAR-B)2006- Van Allen belt Solar Observation

Hisaki 2013 4 Planetary atmosphere Close ties between space science and space technology

Space Technology Divisions Space Flight Systems Technology driven Spacecraft Engineering Leads and creates space science programs

Science driven Stimulates and encourages Space Science Divisions new technology development Space Astronomy Astrophysics Solar System Science 5 Interdisciplinary Space Science The First Interplanetary Micro-Spacecraft PROCYON Launched on Dec 3rd, 2014 Mission Demonstration of 50 kg-Class Deep Space Exploration Micro-Spacecraft Bus System Miniature Ion Thruster and Cold-Gas Thrusters System High-Effieciency GaN SSPA VLBI Navigation Technology Geocorona Observation Close Flyby Observation of Near Earth Asteroid Development The University of Tokyo and JAXA Spacecraft-System Weight 65 kg Size 550 mm×550 mm×670 mm Components Power SAP×4 Attitude RW×4, NSAS×5, FOG×3, STT×1 Communication XTRP (X-Band Transponder), GaN SSPA (Soid State Power Amplifier) VLBITX (Tone Signal Generator for VLBI Navigation) Propulsion Ion Thruster×1 (for Deep Space Maneuver) Cold-Gas Thruster×8 (for Reaction Control System and Trajectory Correction Maneuver) Mission Telescope×2 (for Asteroid Observation and Geocorona Observation) Achievements Demonstration of 50 kg-Class Deep Space Exploration Micro-Spacecraft Bus System Success Miniature Ion Thruster and Cold-Gas Thrusters System Success High-Effieciency GaN SSPA Success VLBI Navigation Technology Success Geocorona Observation Success Address : [email protected].u-tokyo.ac.jp (Ryu FUNASE) CG by Go MIyazaki Geocorona Observation Rikkyo U. PROCYON/LAICA

• Neutral hydrogen geocorona observed by Lyman Alpha Imaging CAmera (LAICA) onboard PROCYON at 15 million km (0.1 AU) from the Earth • 2-D image since 1972 ~400,000 km (Apollo 16) with wide FOV Geocoronal emission (in Rayleigh) on Jan 9, 2015 Apollo 16 [Carruthers et al., 1976] 7 Recent accomplishments HAYABUSA & IKAROS

Led by JAXA Lunar & Planetary Exploration Program Group 8 Japan's Contribution to Spaceguard Asteroid missions • Hayabusa Explored a small S-type NEO (25143) Itokawa • Hayabusa2 Will explore a small C-type NEO (162173) Ryugu Observations • Bisei Spaceguard Center • Groundbased telescopes (Subaru etc) • APAON（Asia-Pacific Asteroid Observation Network） 9 Hayabusa changed concept of small NEOs before after

Itokawa

This is important The structure from the point of spaceguard of Itokawa is

0.535×0.294×0.209 km “Rubble Pile” 10 Hayabusa2-OSIRIS-REx falcon collaborationHayabusa 2 mission in operation hayabusa ISAS/JAXA HAYABUSA2 mission • Launched: 2014, arrival:2018, departure: 2019, return: 2020 • Earth swing-by completed in Dec 2015 on its way for arrival at Ryugu in 2018 NASA OSIRIS-Rex mission • Launch: 2016, arrival:2018, departure: 2021, return: 2023 • Target: BENNU Sample & return is regarded as a high-risk mission and the collaboration including sample-exchange serves as

a means for insurance for both science teams. 1/5 11 Mission Scenario of Hayabusa2

Launch Arrival at Ryugu 03 Dec. 2015 03 Dec. 2014 June-July 2018 Sample analysis

Earth swing-by

Earth Return The spacecraft observes the asteroid, Nov.-Dec. 2020 releases the small rovers and the lander, and executes multiple samplings. 2019

Nov.-Dec. 2019 : Departure Sample will be obtained from the newly created Impactor collides crater New Experiment with the asteroid 12 Future Space Science in JAXA

13 Space Policy Commission under cabinet office intends to guarantee predetermined steady annual budget for space science and exploration to maintain its scientific activities 2010 2020 2030

Strategic Large Missions (300-350M$ class) for X-ray Recovery (2020) JAXA-led flagship science MMX(2024) mission with HIIA or H3 LiteBIRD, Solar-Sail (~2027) vehicle (3 in ten years) SPICA (~2028) Competitively-chosen Hisaki(2013) medium-sized focused ERG (2016) missions (<150M$ class) SLIM(2020) with Epsilon rocket DESTINY(2022) (every 2 year) #5(2024) BepiColombo (ESA, 2018) Missions of opportunity JUICE (ESA, 2022) for foreign agency-led WFIRST(NASA, ~2025) mission ATHENA(ESA, ~2028) (Notional) 14 Strategic L-class missions with HIIA/H3 #4 ESA-Led SPICA

FY2028 Large-size #3 #2 Martian Moons Lite BIRD or eXplorer (MMX) Solar Power Sail Trojan asteroids FY2027

Strategic Large Missions FY2024 (300M$ class) for JAXA- led flagship science #1 X-ray astronomy mission with HIIA/H3 FY2020 Recovery mission vehicle (3 in ten years) 15 Competitive M-class AO for M-Class #5 missions with Epsilon soon announced #4 3200 Phaethon flyby (DESTINY)

#3 Moon landing (SLIM)

FY2022 #2 van Allen belt (ERG) FY2020 #1 Hisaki Competitively-chosen (UV planet) medium-sized focused FY2016 missions (<150M$ class) with Epsilon rocket (every 2 year) FY2013 16 MMX JAXA’s exploration of the two moons of Mars with sample return from Phobos

JAXA’s mission to the Martian moons (MMX) will make close-up remote sensing and insitu observations of both moons, and return samples from Phobos. ISAS Minor Body Exploration Strategy

Outside the snow line DESTINY＋ Primordial asteroids HAYABUSA2 (under study) (Water in hydrated minerals) OSIRIS-Rex （NASA） Comet (water in the form of ice) Jupiter Trojans Dust ejecting bodies (Missing link between (Organic compound comets and asteroids) Transport via dust particles) Martian Moons （） Credit: ESA/ATG medialab Fossil of water delivery capsule ROSETTA (ESA) Solar Power Sail (under study) Martian Moons LUCY (NASA, selected) eXploration（MMX）

The Rocky Planet Region 18 ISAS Planetary science 2020s SPICA(ESA-led) Lead sample & return Solar-power sail to Jupiter Trojan asteroids (JAXA-led) under assessment

Martian Moons JUICE eXplorer(MMX) (ESA -led) (JAXA-led) Asteroid Sample Return BepiColombo Hayabusa, Hayabusa2 MMO(ESA-led) (JAXA-led) SLIM Moon landing

(JAXA-led) 19 19 Foreign agency-led Large missions ? #3 Athena (ESA)

#2 Jupiter Icy moons JUICE (ESA) FY2028 #1 Bepi-Colombo (ESA) FY2022 Missions of opportunity for foreign agency-led mission FY2018 20 ESA-JAXA SPICA Sensitivity Dramatic improvement  Baseline specifications AKARI FIS-FTS  Telescope : 2.5 m aperture 10-15 SOFIA cooled <8 K  Core wavelength: 17–230 mm 2 - 10-16  Orbit : S-E L2 Halo Orbit Wm 2010's  Launcher : JAXA H3 Vehicle  Launch Year : 2027–2028 10-17 1hr) /

- HERSCHEL

σ AKARI IRC

10-18 Spitzer ×100 Improvement

10-19 R=300 ALMA SPICA/SAFARI Limiting Line Flux (5 Flux Line Limiting R=25000 2020's 10-20 JWST/MIRI SPICA R=3000 10 20 100 200 350 1000 Wavelength / µm 21 SPICA’s challenge to reveal the history of our solar system and its analogs Big Questions – When and how does gas evolve from primordial discs into emerging planetary systems? – How do ices and minerals evolve in the planet formation era, as seed for Solar Systems? • SPICA’s approaches – Detailed study of proto-planetary and debris discs in extra-solar systems to shed light on the history of our Solar System – Observations of planets and minor bodies in our own Solar System to characterize the early solar system and its evolution to the current system. 22 SPICA’s challenge to reveal the history of our own Solar System • Characterization of the early solar system: comets – SPICA will make systematic observations of the D/H ratio of comets, the most primitive bodies in the Solar System, and thereby quantify the original water characteristics in the early Solar System. • Evolution of the solar system: trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) – SPICA will detect hundreds of the trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), which are expected to bear an unaltered record of the formation and evolution of the outer Solar System, and infer their composition by measuring their sizes and albedos. • Evolution to planets: planetary atmospheres – SPICA will have resolution ten times better than those of previous exploration missions in the mid-infrared, which contains key features of critical molecules, and will reveal detailed composition and structure of planetary atmospheres. 23 ISAS Minor Body Exploration Strategy SPICA (revised) Infrared Astronomy Outer to main-belt asteroids

Outside the snow line ＋ Primordial asteroids HAYABUSA2 DESTINY (Water in hydrated minerals) OSIRIS-Rex (under study) （NASA） Comet (walter in the form of ice) Jupiter Trojans (Missing link between Dust ejecting bodies comets and asteroids) (Organic compound Martian Moons Transport via dust particles) （Fossil of water delivery capsule） Credit: ESA/ATG medialab ROSETTA (ESA)

Solar Power Sail (under study) Martian Moons eXploration LUCY (NASA, selected) （MMX）

The Rocky Planet Region 24 Collision Probability and Damage

• Size of 10m or less – Always ・almost no damage • Size of about 100m – once in a few 100 years ・regional damage • Size of about 1km – once in a few 105 years ・global damage • Size of about 10km – once in 108 years ・catastrophe

25 Asteroids and super flares Life and civilization on Earth

26 Largest flare ever observed: Carrington flare (1859, Sep 1, am 11:18 ）

• Richard Carrington in 1859: first record of flare observation • Very bright aurora appeared next day in Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Hawaii. • Estimated to be the largest • Telegraph systems all over Europe and North magnetic storm (> 1000 nT) in America failed. modern history • Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire（Loomis 1861）

• The solar storm (flare) on 2012 July 23 observed by STEREO is supposed to be a super- carrington class, though it occurred on the invisible side of the Sun from the Earth

• If it hit the Earth, the estimated economic impact is estimated to be >$2 trillion 27 Superflare 10000 times larger than the largest solar flare Super flares Maehara et al. (2012) Super flare: Total energy~1036 erg 10000 times larger than the largest solar flares Sun Intensity (visible light)

Day A star with a big star spot generates super flares Maehara et al. (2012)28 Comparison between solar flares and superflares Superflares 1000 times more energetic than the largest solar flares occur once in 5000 years ! 1000 in 1 year

100 in 1 year et al. 2013 Shibata 10 in 1 year 1 in 1 year Largest solar flare 1 in 10 year 1 in 100 year 1 in 1000 year Superflare 1 in 10000 year

29 C M X X10 X1000 X100000 Collision Probability and Damage • Size of 10m or less – Always ・almost no damage • Size of about 100m – once in a few 100 years ・regional damage • The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 – Once in 104-5 years ・15,894 deaths, 2,562 people missing • Size of about 1km – once in a few 105 years ・global damage • Super Flares: flares far larger than the largest observed flares( 1032 erg ) – Once in 106 years ・ 1037 erg superflare may cause ozone depletion and disaster for the civilization? • Size of about 10km – once in 108 years ・catastrophe 30 Summary • JAXA appreciates and respects consolidated efforts so far made by various organizations and individuals for planetary defense. • Possibility of catastrophic asteroid collision is comparable those of super flares and major earthquake, and should by no means be neglected. • JAXA’s space science has contributed to planetary defense directly and indirectly.