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Chicago Wilderness Region Urban Forest Vulnerability Assessment

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United States Department of Agriculture CHICAGO WILDERNESS REGION URBAN FOREST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND SYNTHESIS: A Report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness Pilot Project Forest Service Northern Research Station General Technical Report NRS-168 April 2017 ABSTRACT The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how nonnative species and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening the urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region. Major current threats to the region’s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, land-use change, development, and fragmentation. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show a temperature increase of 1 °F in the Chicago Wilderness region. Precipitation increased as well, especially during the summer. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.3 to 8.2 °F by the end of the century, with temperature increases across all seasons. Projections for precipitation show an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by model. Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 11 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 40 species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate change, and many of those trees with low vulnerability are invasive species. We developed a process for self-assessment of urban forest vulnerability that was tested by urban forestry professionals from four municipalities, three park districts, and three forest preserve districts in the region. The professionals generally rated the impacts of climate change on the places they managed as moderately negative, mostly driven by the potential effects of extreme storms and heavy precipitation on trees in the area. The capacity of forests to adapt to climate change ranged widely based on economic, social, and organizational factors, as well as on the diversity of species and genotypes of trees in the area. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning. Quality Assurance This publication conforms to the Northern Research Station’s Quality Assurance Implementation Plan which requires technical and policy review for all scientific publications produced or funded by the Station. The process included a blind technical review by at least two reviewers, who were selected by the Assistant Director for Research and unknown to the author. This review policy promotes the Forest Service guiding principles of using the best scientific knowledge, striving for quality and excellence, maintaining high ethical and professional standards, and being responsible and accountable for what we do. Cover Photo Residential street trees, Chicago, IL. Photo by L. Darling, The Morton Arboretum, used with permission. Manuscript received for publication August 2016 PUBLISHED BY: FOR ADDITIONAL COPIES, CONTACT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE U.S. FOREST SERVICE 11 CAMPUS BLVD., SUITE 200 PUBLICATIONS DISTRIBUTION NEWTOWN SQUARE, PA 19073-3294 359 MAIN ROAD DELAWARE, OH 43015-8640 APRIL 2017 FAX: 740-368-0152 www.nrs.fs.fed.us CHICAGO WILDERNESS REGION URBAN FOREST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AND SYNTHESIS: A Report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness Pilot Project Leslie A. Brandt, Abigail Derby Lewis, Lydia Scott, Lindsay Darling, Robert T. Fahey, Louis Iverson, David J. Nowak, Allison R. Bodine, Andrew Bell, Shannon Still, Patricia R. Butler, Andrea Dierich, Stephen D. Handler, Maria K. Janowiak, Stephen N. Matthews, Jason W. Miesbauer, Matthew Peters, Anantha Prasad, P. Danielle Shannon, Douglas Stotz, and Christopher W. Swanston AUTHORS LESLIE A. BRANDT is a climate change specialist with Science, Michigan Technological University, School the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, 1400 Forest Service, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. [email protected]. ANDREA DIERICH is an environmental coordinator for ABIGAIL DERBY LEWIS is a senior conservation DuPage County, 421 N. County Farm Road, Wheaton, ecologist at Keller Science Action Center, the Field IL 60187, [email protected]. Museum, 1400 S. Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605, [email protected]. STEPHEN D. HANDLER is a climate change specialist with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, LYDIA SCOTT is director of the Chicago Region Trees U.S. Forest Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, Initiative at The Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route MI 49931, [email protected]. 53, Lisle, IL 60532, [email protected]. MARIA K. JANOWIAK is the deputy director of the LINDSAY DARLING is a geographic information Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest systems analyst at The Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, Route 53, Lisle, IL 60532, [email protected]. [email protected]. ROBERT T. FAHEY is an assistant professor at the STEPHEN N. MATTHEWS is an assistant professor at University of Connecticut, Department of Natural Ohio State University, 2021 Coffey Road, Columbus, Resources and the Environment, and the Center for OH 43210, [email protected]. Environmental Sciences and Engineering, 1376 Storrs Road, Storrs, CT 06269, [email protected]. JASON W. MIESBAUER is an arboriculture scientist with The Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route 53, LOUIS IVERSON is a landscape ecologist with the U.S. Lisle, IL 60532, [email protected]. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware, OH 43015, [email protected]. MATTHEW PETERS is a geographic information systems technician with the U.S. Forest Service, Northern DAVID J. NOWAK is team leader and a research forester Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware, OH 43015, with the U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, [email protected]. SUNY-ESF, 1 Forestry Road, 5 Moon Library, Syracuse, NY 13210, [email protected]. ANANTHA PRASAD is an ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main ALLISON R. BODINE is a planner with the Syracuse- Road, Delaware, OH 43015, [email protected]. Onondaga County Planning Agency, 421 Montgomery St., 11th Floor, Syracuse, NY 13202, arbodine@gmail. P. DANIELLE SHANNON is the coordinator of the com. She was a research forester with the Davey Institute, USDA Northern Forests Climate Hub, Northern Institute Syracuse, NY at the time of writing. of Applied Climate Science, Michigan Technological University, School of Forest Resources and Environmental ANDREW BELL is a visiting scientist at the United Science, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, States National Arboretum, 3501 New York Ave. NE, [email protected]. Washington, DC 20002, [email protected] or Andrew. [email protected]. He was curator of woody plants at the DOUGLAS STOTZ is a senior conservation ecologist Chicago Botanic Garden at the time of writing. at Keller Science Action Center, the Field Museum, 1400 S. Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605, SHANNON STILL is director of plant conservation and [email protected]. curator at the University of California, Davis Arboretum and Public Garden, 1 Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, CHRISTOPHER W. SWANSTON is the director of [email protected]. the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science and a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service, Northern PATRICIA R. BUTLER is a climate change outreach Research Station, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI specialist with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate 49931, [email protected]. PREFACE Context and Scope Author Contributions This assessment is a fundamental component of the and Acknowledgments Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Leslie Brandt developed the document structure project. This project builds on lessons learned from the and was the primary author of the document, with Climate Change Response Framework: a collaborative, substantial input and writing from Abigail Derby cross-boundary approach among scientists, managers, Lewis, Lydia Scott,
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