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Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change: Swedish Counter-Terrorism Policymaking Author: Dan Hansén Swedish National Defence College, Crismart Publication No

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Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change: Swedish Counter-Terrorism Policymaking Author: Dan Hansén Swedish National Defence College, Crismart Publication No Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change Swedish Counter-terrorism Policymaking Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change Swedish Counter-terrorism Policymaking Author: Dan Hansén Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change: Swedish Counter-terrorism Policymaking Author: Dan Hansén Swedish National Defence College, Crismart Publication no. 34 ISBN 978-91-85401-65-9 Edition: 800 copies © The author and the Swedish National Defence College, Crismart 2007 Printed by Elanders Gotab AB, SE-50270, Vällingby 2007 Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change: Swedish Counter-terrorism Policymaking Crisis en perspectieven op beleidsverandering: vorming van een Zweeds contraterrorismebeleid (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Kriser och perspektiv på policyförändring: skapandet av svensk kontraterrorismpolitik (med en sammanfattning på svenska) PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof.dr. W.H. Gispen, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 3 april 2007 des ochtends te 10.30 uur door Dan Henrik Hansén geboren op 13 november 1968 te Nyköping, Zweden 5 Promotor: Prof.dr. Paul ’t Hart To my parents Acknowledgements For the completion of this thesis I am grateful to many people. Bengt Sundelius and Eric Stern first believed in this project and got me going. It would not have been possible without generous financial support from the Swedish Emergency Management Agency. Intellectually, I can just count myself fortunate to have had the privilege to work under the supervision of Paul ‘t Hart. Through this project I got to know and to take the Netherlands to my heart. I am truly happy to have had the chance to spend time in above all Leiden, where I made friends and worked together with Sander Dekker, Jörg Noll, Arjen Boin, Sanneke Kuipers, Martijn Groenleer, Fleur Alink, Celesta Bos and more. In Stockholm, where most of this research was carried out, I regularly benefited from construc- tive feedback on draft chapters bestowed by my dear friends and colleagues on the Crismart team, of whom it would be impossible to point out anyone in par- ticular. I also owe much appreciation to Daniel Nohrstedt at Uppsala University for fruitful and challenging discussions over the years. Thanks to all of you this has been a pleasant experience. Dan Hansén Stockholm, January 2007. 9 Table of contents Chapter 1 Counter-terrorism, crisis management and policy change 17 1.1 Terrorism and the body politic 17 1.2 Counter-terrorism and crisis management 19 1.2.1 Terrorism as crisis 19 1.2.2 Crisis management opportunities and predicaments 20 1.3 Aims of the study 23 1.4 Plan of the book 24 1.5 Methodological discussions 25 1.5.1 Characterizations of the explanandum 25 1.5.2 Case studies, process tracing and theory development 27 1.5.3 Multiple theoretical perspectives 30 1.5.4 Discussion on sources 30 1.5.5 Delimitations 32 PART 1: CRISES AND SWEDISH COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY CHANGE PATTERNS 35 Brief introduction to the Swedish policymaking scene 36 Chapter 2 Before terrorism: Controlling crowds and opinion 41 2.1 Old and new security issues 41 2.1.1 Counter-subversion: A legacy of Red Scare 41 2.1.2 Radical movements and large-scale manifestations 42 2.2 Säpo, IB and the Law on Personnel Monitoring 44 11 Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change Chapter 3 Croatian terrorism challenges security policy structures 47 3.1 Terrorism becomes a policy problem 47 3.2 Crisis case one: The Bulltofta skyjacking 49 3.2.1 Introduction 49 3.2.2 Dilemmas 49 3.3 Policy change patterns 53 3.3.1 Terrorism legislation: A policy innovation 54 3.3.2 The Hague and Montreal conventions: Routine maintenance on air transport safety 55 3.3.3 Säpo subject to symbolic gestures 56 3.3.4 Routine maintenance of law and order policing 57 Chapter 4 Terrorism crisis and the absence of policy change 61 4.1 Crisis case two: The seizure of the West-German embassy 61 4.1.1 Background 61 4.1.2 The siege begins 62 4.1.3 Dilemmas 63 4.2 Policy change patterns 65 4.2.1 Terrorism legislation: A symbolic gesture 67 4.2.2 The national police: Policy innovation 69 4.2.3 Stockholm police Special Response Units: Routine maintenance 71 4.2.4 The Special Response Units and “the atom police”: Routine remains 72 4.2.5 Operation Leo, the Bergling affair and instrumental adaptation of Säpo 74 Chapter 5 Non-terrorist crisis and major changes 77 5.1 Crisis case three: The murder of Olof Palme 77 5.1.1 The Night of the murder 77 5.1.2 The subsequent search organization 80 5.1.3 Main suspects and organizational breakdowns 80 5.2 Policy change patterns 82 5.2.1 A permanent Terrorist Act: A policy innovation 83 5.2.2 Säpo scrutinized and reorganized: A policy innovation 85 5.2.3 Time ripe for policy innovation on anti-terrorist policing 90 12 Table of contents PART 2: EXPLAINING THE NEXUS BETWEEN CRISIS AND PATTERNS OF POLICY CHANGE 95 Chapter 6 Theoretical perspectives on policy dynamics 97 6.1 Boundedly rational assumptions 97 6.2 Multiple streams theory 99 6.2.1 General overview 99 6.2.2 The relationship between crisis and policy agenda attainment 100 6.2.3 Critical assessment 102 6.3 Policy advocacy coalition framework 103 6.3.1 General overview 103 6.3.2 External perturbation and policy change 105 6.3.3 Critical assessment 106 6.4 Punctuated equilibrium 107 6.4.1 General overview 107 6.4.2 Focusing events and policy monopoly breakdown 110 6.4.3 Critical assessment 111 6.5 Concealed similarities and apparent differences 113 6.5.1 Individuals: Ideas, beliefs and preferences 113 6.5.2 Collective action formation and institutional settings 116 6.6 Two perspectives on crisis and policy change 121 6.6.1 Assumptions of the belief-based perspective 117 6.6.2 Assumptions of the attention-based perspective 118 6.7 Process tracing: A method applicable to analyzing patterns of policy change 118 6.7.1 Crisis, policy change and the boundary and scope of inquiry 119 6.7.2 MS, ACF, PE: Case studies and process tracing 121 6.7.3 Processes to trace 122 Chapter 7 Explaining the 1973 policy innovation 125 7.1 Belief-based perspective and the 1973 policy innovation 125 7.1.1 Before terrorism: Policy core beliefs remain through shattered coalition structures 125 7.1.2 Terrorism legislation: Translation from counter-subversion 129 7.2 Attention-based perspective and the 1973 policy innovation 134 7.2.1 Monitoring issue between wind and water 134 13 Crisis and Perspectives on Policy Change 7.2.2 Terrorism legislation: A pretext for monitoring political opinion? 137 7.3 Conclusions 139 Chapter 8 Explaining the 1973–1986 policy stability 141 8.1 Belief-based perspective and policy stability 1973–1986 141 8.1.1 Terrorism legislation and Säpo: Deterring terrorists? 141 8.1.2 Law and order policing: Decomposed coalitions, beliefs intact 143 8.1.3 Summing up 147 8.2 Attention-based perspective and policy stability 1973–1986 148 8.2.1 Terrorism legislation and Säpo: Entrepreneurs leave the scene 148 8.2.2 Law and order policing: Entrepreneurial efforts in adverse conditions 150 8.2.3 Summing up 152 8.3 Conclusions 152 Chapter 9 Explaining post Palme murder policy innovations 155 9.1 Belief-based perspective and post-Palme murder policy innovations 155 9.1.1 Terrorism legislation: Majority coalition learns, but not from crisis 155 9.1.2 Säpo: Social Democratic Cabinet alters belief through crisis inquiries 158 9.1.3 Anti-terrorism policing: Minority coalition becomes majority, but not due to crisis 159 9.1.4 Summing up 160 9.2 Attention-based perspective and post Palme murder policy innovations 161 9.2.1 Terrorism legislation: Immigration policies played up 161 9.2.2 Säpo: Exonerated or contained? 163 9.2.3 Anti-terrorism policing: Embassy drama played up 165 9.2.4 Summing up 168 9.3 Conclusions 168 PART 3: CONCLUSIONS 171 Chapter 10 Crisis and policy change 183 10.1 Policy change patterns 175 14 Table of contents 10.1.1 Terrorism legislation: From policy innovation to policy innovation 175 10.1.2 Säpo: From “overlooked” adaptations to reform 177 10.1.3 Repressive policing: From reluctant adaptation to radical reform 179 10.2 Mechanisms 180 10.2.1 Belief-based mechanisms and patterns of policy change 180 10.2.2 Attention-based mechanisms and patterns of policy change 182 10.2.3 Combined analytic leverage 184 10.3 Theoretical implications 185 10.3.1 Implications for the belief-based perspective 186 10.3.2 Implications for the attention-based perspective 187 10.4 Theoretical perspectives, process tracing and explanations for policy change 188 Samenvatting in het Nederlands 190 Sammanfattning på svenska 203 References 214 15 Chapter 1 Counter-terrorism, crisis management and policy change 1.1 Terrorism and the body politic Today terrorism has according to many become one of the most salient antag- onistic threats to human security, outweighing for example armed conflicts and international crises (Human Security Centre 2005). This observation is obviously relative, and does not say much about patterns of terrorism as such. However, the ubiquity of terrorism is indicative of a transforming world in terms of how security is conceived. Terrorism as a phenomenon is certainly not novel. It is usually dated back to the part of the French Revolution (1793–94) known as the Reign of Terror (Laqueur 1987: 11).
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