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West Java’S Low Carbon Society 2050

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West Java’S Low Carbon Society 2050 LoCARNet, 9th Annual Meeting New development-Scenario Development and Science-Policy Dialogue 19th March 2021 Preliminary Study LONG-TERM STRATEGY: West Java’s Low Carbon Society 2050 id.wikipedia.org By Retno Gumilang Dewi Gissa N Sevie, Iwan Hendrawan, Rias Parinderati, Rien Rahmana, Sarah Sitorus, Ucok Siagian 1 OUTLINE The Importance of Low Carbon Development for West Java GHGs emission Profile and Energy Demand Profile of West Java Modeling to Estimate GHGs Emission Reduction Potential Projection on Energy Demand and the Associated GHGs Emission Breakdown of GHGs Emission Reduction Target in 2030 and 2050 2 The Importance of Low Carbon Development for West Java Sub-National Action Plan on Climate Change Mitigation (RAD), Contribute to Indonesia NDC, and Low Carbon Development 3 NDC Critically insufficient West Java High economic activity, Economic annual growth 5.1%/year Highly insufficient Very dense city’s population of 1.365 Insufficient persons/1 km2 (with 2°C compatible 1.1% population growth More than 48.3 million 1.5°C Paris population living in Agreement 2 compatible 35,377 km of land area Limited public transport infrastructure 3,000 In supporting National GHGs emission 2,500 reduction to achieve the target of Forestry Indonesia NDC and Indonesia Long Term 2,000 Agriculture Strategy of Low Carbon Development 1,500 IPPU NDC The Government of Indonesia (GOI) is committed to reduce Target 1,000 Waste the national GHGs emission level by: 500 CM1 : 29% below its baseline emission in 2030 (unconditional) Energy - CM2: 41% below its baseline emission in 2030 (conditional), if GHG GHG Emission Projection (Mton CO2e) BAU BAU CM1 CM2 there are international supports. 2010 2030 4 GHGs Emission Reduction Target and Its Achievement 2020 and 2030 2050 RAN GRK Nationally Determined Presidential Decree Contribution Long-term Strategy No. 61/2011. (NDC) (LTS) West Java is now preparing RAD-GRK of West Java Governor Regulation No. 56/2012. its Provincial Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) The Government of West Java Province has set a GHG emission reduction target in energy, industry and transport sectors of about 11.48 MTon CO2e below the GHG emissions of BaU level in 2020 LCD of West Java 2030 National Low Carbon Society (LCS) 5 GHGs Emission Profiles Historical GHG Inventory Projections, BaU GHG emissions in 2015 GHG emissions in 2030 GHG emissions in 2050 300 700 120 600 250 100 500 200 80 400 Indirect Indirect 60 Indirect 150 300 Biofuel Biofuel Biofuel 100 40 Gas Gas 200 Gas Oil Oil Oil 20 50 100 Coal Coal Coal 0 0 0 West Java’s electricity supply from : End-use sector: more than half of direct combustion emissions are from 1. The authority of PLN (national electricity company) as fuel consumption in industry these plants are grid-connected (JAMALI grid). Emissions from indirect (electricity supply) in base year (2015) are 2. Local power plant in West Java that generated GHGs accounted by transportation (0.3%), residential (38.4%), industry emission from fuel burning (47.4%), commercial (13.9%). The projection showed that transportation Indirect GHGs emission from JAMALI grid (Allocation by and commercial sector increase (4.6% and 21.9%) in 2050 end-use sector i.e., transportation, residential, industry, Industry sector is the largest sources of GHG emissions from energy and commercial) category, followed by residential and transportation. 6 Final Energy Demand and Power Plants Profiles Historical Inventory Projections, BaU Final Energy Demand (MTOE) in 2030 Power (MTOE) 2030 In 2015, share of Renewable Energy 50 30 in power generation is 28,2% of total 45 electricity 25 power generation. 40 Biofuel Biomass 35 Gas 20 30 Waste Final Energy Demand (MTOE) in 2015 Power (MTOE), 2015 Oil 15 25 25 Solar 10 Coal 10 Hydro electricity 20 9 Geothermal 15 20 Biofuel 5 Natural gas 8 10 Gas Biomass Coal 7 5 0 Oil Power plant in Waste - 15 6 West Java Coal Transportation Residential Industry Commercial Total 5 Solar Power (MTOE), 2050 10 4 Hydro Final Energy Demand (MTOE) in 2050 100 30 3 Geothermal 90 electricity 25 Biomass 2 Natural gas 5 80 Biofuel Waste 1 20 Coal 70 Gas Solar 0 60 Oil 15 Hydro - Power plant in 50 Geothermal Transportation Residential Industry Commercial Total West Java Coal 40 10 Natural gas 30 5 Coal 20 10 0 Power plant in - Transportation Residential Industry Commercial Total West Java 77 Capacity, Fuel Power Plant MW PLTU Indramayu 870 Coal PLTU Sukabumi 969 PLTU Cirebon 660 PLTGU Muara Tawar 829 PLTG Muara Tawar 1,114 Gas PLTG Cikarang Listrikindo 300 PLTGU Bekasi Power 119 PLTP (Salak, Kamojang, Geothermal Drajat, W. Windu) 1,015 PLTA Ubrug, Kracak, Plangan,Lamajan, Hydro Cikalong, Bengkok, Dago, Saguling, Cirata, Jatiluhur 1,015 8 Modeling to estimate GHG emissions reduction potential 9 Methodology: ExSS 1. 2. 3. Setting Collection of Collection Framework the base of LC year Measures information Information 5. 4. Estimation of Estimation of Snapshots WITH Snapshots LC Measures WITHOUT LC Measures 1. Driving Force Settings 2. Final Energy Demand 3. Primary Energy Demand 4. GHGs emission 10 8,000 . Rp . Assumption of Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Tril 7,000 Mining Unit 2015 2030 2050 2030/2015 2050/2015 RGDP, Manufacturing Population Persons 46,709,600 55,193,800 62,647,136 1.18 1.34 6,000 Electricity and gas No. of Households 12,415,357 14,670,447 16,651,536 1.18 1.34 Water, Waste Management households 5,000 Construction GDRP Tril. Rp 1,207 2,545 6,883 2.11 5.70 Trade Passenger mil. Pass - 242,258 286,261 324,918 1.18 1.34 Trasnportation and warehouse transport km 4,000 Accomodation and restaurant Information and Communication 3,000 Financial services Real estate 2,000 Firm services Administration government 1,000 Education services Health and social services - Other services 2015 2030 2050 1USD = Rp. 14500 11 Projections on Energy Demand and The Associated GHG Emissions To estimate GHG emission reduction potential from West Java 12 West Java Circumstances & Development Trends The results show: 6.0 2015 2030 2050 Economic Growth Means Greater Access for 5.0 Energy, considering the use of baseline technologies, this could lead to a climb in future energy related emissions. 4.0 Main driver of GHG emissions over the past decade has been economic activity, which increased at a rate of 5.1% per year. 3.0 Decreasing energy use per GDP in CM scenario value of 2015 = 1 = of 2015 value (compared to BaU scenario) indicated that the 2.0 results are from (i) improvement of efficiency, (ii) fuel switching (diesel oil to gas), iii) renewable energy use (bio-fuel), iv) mode shift 1.0 transportation; v) implementation of clean coal technology (Ultra super critical); biomass co-firing in existing coal fired plant; promotion - of solar PV, increase renewable energy share BaU BaU BaU BaU LCCP LCCP LCCP LCCP CPOS CPOS CPOS CPOS (mainly geothermal, hydro, solar, biomass and Tansition Tansition Tansition Tansition waste) Pop GDP/cap Final energy,non-electricity/cap Final energy,electricity/cap GHG emissions,non-electricity/cap GHG emissions,electricity/cap Projections on population, GDP, final energy, GHGs emission for base year (2015), 2030, and 2050 13 Energy Demand of West Java Final Energy Demand by Sector 25 Primary Energy Demand by type of energy in 100 20 Power Plant 90 80 Mtoe 30 70 15 60 25 50 40 10 20 30 15 20 10 Mtoe Saving, Energy Final 5 10 - Tansiti Tansiti Demand, Energy BaU CPOS LCCP BaU CPOS LCCP 5 on on - Tansit 0 Final Energy Demand, Mtoe Demand, Energy Final CPOS LCCP 2015 2030 2050 ion BaU CPOS BaU CPOS Primary Primary Industry 9,320 19,654 16,688 16,688 16,688 53,151 43,487 42,521 41,596 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050 Industry 2,967 9,664 10,630 11,555 Residential 3,100 7,891 6,763 6,763 6,763 13,469 10,541 10,317 10,102 Biomass 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.40 Residential 1,127 2,928 3,152 3,367 Waste 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 Commercial 730 2,459 2,031 2,031 2,031 7,557 6,242 6,242 6,242 Commercial 428 1,314 1,314 1,314 Transportation 6,027 14,243 13,565 13,565 13,565 20,208 18,371 16,987 16,617 Transportation 678 1,837 3,221 3,590 Solar 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.46 Hydro 1.29 1.29 1.33 1.29 1.42 Geothermal 0.54 1.49 1.91 1.49 2.55 Final Energy Demand by Sector Natural Gas 0.68 2.72 2.58 6.98 4.48 Coal 3.97 11.56 11.02 17.69 16.71 100 90 Mtoe 80 70 60 The primary energy used to supply electricity demand in local 50 power generation is still dominated by coal and natural gas 40 30 In mitigation scenario: 20 Energy Demand, 10 2030: the implementation of 4.5 GW renewable energy power - plant provide the increasing of RE (3.5 Mtoe) Final BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP 2015 2030 2050 2050: the implementation of 11.0 GW renewable energy power electricity 3,717 10,325 8,763 8,763 8,763 25,614 20,795 20,337 20,001 plant provide the increasing of RE (4.82 Mtoe) biofuel 146 - 3,425 3,425 3,425 - 4,897 8,727 11,148 gas 5,658 11,965 10,211 10,211 10,211 28,189 23,022 25,809 28,456 oil 6,815 15,964 11,561 11,561 11,561 24,377 16,670 12,119 9,880 coal 2,841 5,992 5,088 5,088 5,088 16,204 13,258 9,074 5,073 14 GHGs Emission of West Java GHGs emission from energy by sub-sector 600 e 2 500 400 300 200 million ton CO million GHGs emission from Power Generation GHG Emissions Level GHG Emissions 100 100 - BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP 90 2015 2030 2050 CO2e 80 Industry 44,392 95,489 70,674 70,674 70,674 253,162 175,967 127,613 91,620 70 Mton Residential 20,904 61,477 42,228 42,228 42,228 115,547 64,363 37,103 16,415 60 Commercial 6,595 23,634 15,317 15,317 15,317 71,279
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