LoCARNet, 9th Annual Meeting New development-Scenario Development and Science-Policy Dialogue 19th March 2021 Preliminary Study

LONG-TERM STRATEGY: West ’s Low Carbon Society 2050

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By Retno Gumilang Dewi Gissa N Sevie, Iwan Hendrawan, Rias Parinderati, Rien Rahmana, Sarah Sitorus, Ucok Siagian

1 OUTLINE

 The Importance of Low Carbon Development for  GHGs emission Profile and Energy Demand Profile of West Java  Modeling to Estimate GHGs Emission Reduction Potential  Projection on Energy Demand and the Associated GHGs Emission  Breakdown of GHGs Emission Reduction Target in 2030 and 2050

2 The Importance of Low Carbon Development for West Java

Sub-National Action Plan on Climate Change Mitigation (RAD), Contribute to NDC, and Low Carbon Development

3 NDC Critically insufficient West Java  High economic activity, Economic annual growth 5.1%/year Highly insufficient  Very dense city’s population of 1.365 Insufficient persons/1 km2 (with

2°C compatible 1.1% population growth  More than 48.3 million 1.5°C Paris population living in Agreement 2 compatible 35,377 km of land area  Limited public transport infrastructure 3,000 In supporting National GHGs emission 2,500 reduction to achieve the target of Forestry Indonesia NDC and Indonesia Long Term 2,000 Agriculture Strategy of Low Carbon Development 1,500 IPPU NDC The Government of Indonesia (GOI) is committed to reduce Target 1,000 Waste the national GHGs emission level by: 500 CM1 : 29% below its baseline emission in 2030 (unconditional) Energy - CM2: 41% below its baseline emission in 2030 (conditional), if GHG GHG Emission Projection (Mton CO2e) BAU BAU CM1 CM2 there are international supports. 2010 2030

4 GHGs Emission Reduction Target and Its Achievement

2020 and 2030 2050

RAN GRK Nationally Determined Presidential Decree Contribution Long-term Strategy No. 61/2011. (NDC) (LTS)

 West Java is now preparing RAD-GRK of West Java Governor Regulation No. 56/2012. its Provincial Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) The Government of West Java Province has set a GHG emission reduction target in energy, industry and transport sectors of about 11.48 MTon CO2e below the GHG emissions of BaU level in 2020

LCD of West Java 2030 National Low Carbon Society (LCS)

5 GHGs Emission Profiles

Historical GHG Inventory Projections, BaU

GHG emissions in 2015 GHG emissions in 2030 GHG emissions in 2050 300 700 120 600 250 100 500 200 80 400 Indirect Indirect 60 Indirect 150 300 Biofuel Biofuel Biofuel 100 40 Gas Gas 200 Gas Oil Oil Oil 20 50 100 Coal Coal Coal 0 0 0

 West Java’s electricity supply from :  End-use sector: more than half of direct combustion emissions are from 1. The authority of PLN (national electricity company) as fuel consumption in industry these plants are grid-connected (JAMALI grid).  Emissions from indirect (electricity supply) in base year (2015) are 2. Local power plant in West Java that generated GHGs accounted by transportation (0.3%), residential (38.4%), industry emission from fuel burning (47.4%), commercial (13.9%). The projection showed that transportation  Indirect GHGs emission from JAMALI grid (Allocation by and commercial sector increase (4.6% and 21.9%) in 2050 end-use sector i.e., transportation, residential, industry,  Industry sector is the largest sources of GHG emissions from energy and commercial) category, followed by residential and transportation. 6 Final Energy Demand and Power Plants Profiles

Historical Inventory Projections, BaU Final Energy Demand (MTOE) in 2030 Power (MTOE) 2030 In 2015, share of Renewable Energy 50 30 in power generation is 28,2% of total 45 electricity 25 power generation. 40 Biofuel Biomass 35 Gas 20 30 Waste Final Energy Demand (MTOE) in 2015 Power (MTOE), 2015 Oil 15 25 25 Solar 10 Coal 10 Hydro electricity 20 9 Geothermal 15 20 Biofuel 5 Natural gas 8 10 Gas Biomass Coal 7 5 0 Oil Power plant in Waste - 15 6 West Java Coal Transportation Residential Industry Commercial Total 5 Solar Power (MTOE), 2050 10 4 Hydro Final Energy Demand (MTOE) in 2050 100 30 3 Geothermal 90 electricity 25 Biomass 2 Natural gas 5 80 Biofuel Waste 1 20 Coal 70 Gas Solar 0 60 Oil 15 Hydro - Power plant in 50 Geothermal Transportation Residential Industry Commercial Total West Java Coal 40 10 Natural gas 30 5 Coal 20 10 0 Power plant in - Transportation Residential Industry Commercial Total West Java

77 Capacity, Fuel Power Plant MW PLTU Indramayu 870 Coal PLTU Sukabumi 969 PLTU Cirebon 660 PLTGU Muara Tawar 829 PLTG Muara Tawar 1,114 Gas PLTG Cikarang Listrikindo 300 PLTGU Power 119 PLTP (Salak, Kamojang, Geothermal Drajat, W. Windu) 1,015 PLTA Ubrug, Kracak, Plangan,Lamajan, Hydro Cikalong, Bengkok, Dago, Saguling, Cirata, Jatiluhur 1,015

8 Modeling to estimate GHG emissions reduction potential

9 Methodology: ExSS

1. 2. 3. Setting Collection of Collection Framework the base of LC year Measures information Information 5. 4. Estimation of Estimation of Snapshots WITH Snapshots LC Measures WITHOUT LC Measures

1. Driving Force Settings 2. Final Energy Demand 3. Primary Energy Demand 4. GHGs emission

10

8,000 . Rp .

Assumption of Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Tril 7,000 Mining Unit 2015 2030 2050 2030/2015 2050/2015

RGDP, RGDP, Manufacturing Population Persons 46,709,600 55,193,800 62,647,136 1.18 1.34 6,000 Electricity and gas No. of Households 12,415,357 14,670,447 16,651,536 1.18 1.34 Water, Waste Management households 5,000 Construction GDRP Tril. Rp 1,207 2,545 6,883 2.11 5.70 Trade Passenger mil. Pass - 242,258 286,261 324,918 1.18 1.34 Trasnportation and warehouse transport km 4,000 Accomodation and restaurant

Information and Communication 3,000 Financial services

Real estate

2,000 Firm services

Administration government

1,000 Education services

Health and social services

- Other services 2015 2030 2050

1USD = Rp. 14500

11 Projections on Energy Demand and The Associated GHG Emissions

To estimate GHG emission reduction potential from West Java

12 West Java Circumstances & Development Trends

The results show: 6.0

2015 2030 2050  Economic Growth Means Greater Access for 5.0 Energy, considering the use of baseline technologies, this could lead to a climb in future energy related emissions. 4.0  Main driver of GHG emissions over the past decade has been economic activity, which increased at a rate of 5.1% per year. 3.0  Decreasing energy use per GDP in CM scenario

value of 2015 = 1 = 2015 of value (compared to BaU scenario) indicated that the 2.0 results are from (i) improvement of efficiency, (ii) fuel switching (diesel oil to gas), iii) renewable energy use (bio-fuel), iv) mode shift 1.0 transportation; v) implementation of clean coal technology (Ultra super critical); biomass co-firing in existing coal fired plant; promotion

- of solar PV, increase renewable energy share

BaU BaU BaU BaU

LCCP LCCP LCCP LCCP

CPOS CPOS CPOS

CPOS (mainly geothermal, hydro, solar, biomass and

Tansition Tansition Tansition Tansition waste) Pop GDP/cap Final energy,non-electricity/cap Final energy,electricity/cap GHG emissions,non-electricity/cap GHG emissions,electricity/cap

Projections on population, GDP, final energy, GHGs emission for base year (2015), 2030, and 2050

13 Energy Demand of West Java

Final Energy Demand by Sector 25 Primary Energy Demand by type of energy in

100 20 Power Plant 90

80 Mtoe 30 70 15 60 25 50 40 10 20 30 15 20 10 Mtoe Saving, Energy Final 5 10 - Tansiti Tansiti Demand, Energy BaU CPOS LCCP BaU CPOS LCCP 5 on on - Tansit 0

Final Energy Demand, Mtoe Demand, Energy Final CPOS LCCP

2015 2030 2050 ion BaU CPOS BaU CPOS Primary Primary Industry 9,320 19,654 16,688 16,688 16,688 53,151 43,487 42,521 41,596 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050 Industry 2,967 9,664 10,630 11,555 Residential 3,100 7,891 6,763 6,763 6,763 13,469 10,541 10,317 10,102 Biomass 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.40 Residential 1,127 2,928 3,152 3,367 Waste 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 Commercial 730 2,459 2,031 2,031 2,031 7,557 6,242 6,242 6,242 Commercial 428 1,314 1,314 1,314 Transportation 6,027 14,243 13,565 13,565 13,565 20,208 18,371 16,987 16,617 Transportation 678 1,837 3,221 3,590 Solar 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.46 Hydro 1.29 1.29 1.33 1.29 1.42 Geothermal 0.54 1.49 1.91 1.49 2.55 Final Energy Demand by Sector Natural Gas 0.68 2.72 2.58 6.98 4.48 Coal 3.97 11.56 11.02 17.69 16.71 100 90

Mtoe 80 70 60  The primary energy used to supply electricity demand in local 50 power generation is still dominated by coal and natural gas 40 30  In mitigation scenario: 20 Energy Energy Demand, 10 2030: the implementation of 4.5 GW renewable energy power - plant provide the increasing of RE (3.5 Mtoe) Final BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP 2015 2030 2050  2050: the implementation of 11.0 GW renewable energy power electricity 3,717 10,325 8,763 8,763 8,763 25,614 20,795 20,337 20,001 plant provide the increasing of RE (4.82 Mtoe) biofuel 146 - 3,425 3,425 3,425 - 4,897 8,727 11,148 gas 5,658 11,965 10,211 10,211 10,211 28,189 23,022 25,809 28,456 oil 6,815 15,964 11,561 11,561 11,561 24,377 16,670 12,119 9,880 coal 2,841 5,992 5,088 5,088 5,088 16,204 13,258 9,074 5,073 14 GHGs Emission of West Java

GHGs emission from energy by sub-sector

600 e 2 500 400 300 200

million CO ton million GHGs emission from Power Generation GHG Emissions Level Emissions GHG 100 100 - BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP 90 2015 2030 2050 CO2e 80

Industry 44,392 95,489 70,674 70,674 70,674 253,162 175,967 127,613 91,620 70 Mton Residential 20,904 61,477 42,228 42,228 42,228 115,547 64,363 37,103 16,415 60 Commercial 6,595 23,634 15,317 15,317 15,317 71,279 41,293 23,504 9,530 50 Transportation 18,217 43,965 32,631 32,631 32,631 72,347 46,709 33,569 25,265 40 30

GHGs emission from energy by type of energy Level, Emissions 20 10 600 GHG 0 BaU CPOS BaU CPOS

500 e

2 2015 2030 2050 400 Biomass - - 0.01 - 0.03 300 Natural Gas 1.54 6.15 5.83 15.74 10.11

200 Coal 17.01 49.54 47.21 75.78 71.56 million CO ton million

GHG Emissions Level Emissions GHG 100 - BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP BaU CPOS Tansition LCCP 2015 2030 2050 electricity 44,213 122,811 80,452 80,452 80,452 304,653 168,563 86,637 24,779 biofuel ------gas 13,296 28,118 23,996 23,996 23,996 66,245 54,102 60,650 66,873 oil 20,922 49,011 35,491 35,491 35,491 74,838 51,176 37,205 30,330 coal 11,678 24,627 20,910 20,910 20,910 66,599 54,490 37,295 20,848 15 GHGs emission Mitigation Action

Low Carbon Development Pathway of West Java

16 GHG Emissions Reduction Target in Energy Sector

ENERGY

62.3 Mton CO2e

Improvement of Power Transportation Residential Commercial Industry Supply

11.2 Mton CO2e 7.9 Mton CO2e 3.7 Mton CO2e 13.5 Mton CO2e 26.0 Mton CO2e

Energy Energy Energy Low-carbon Smart Control/ Smart Control/ Smart Control/ 1.9 Biofuel 9.3 5.4 Efficiency 2.5 1.0 Efficiency 2.7 8.7 Efficiency 4.8 vehicles monitoring monitoring monitoring Improvement Improvement Improvement

ENERGY

184.0 Mton CO2e CPOS

Improvement of Power Transportation Residential Commercial Industry Supply

20.8 Mton CO2e 21.6 Mton CO2e 10.6 Mton CO2e 42.5 Mton CO2e 88.6 Mton CO2e

Energy Energy Energy Low-carbon Smart Control/ Smart Control/ Smart Control/ 5.6 Biofuel 15.2 9.3 Efficiency 12.3 2.9 Efficiency 7.7 22.3 Efficiency 20.2 vehicles monitoring monitoring monitoring Improvement Improvement Improvement

17 GHG Emissions Reduction Target in Energy Sector

ENERGY

227.7 Mton CO2e Transition

Improvement of Power Transportation Residential Commercial Industry Supply

28.9 Mton CO2e 19.4 Mton CO2e 8.7 Mton CO2e 41.3 Mton CO2e 179.4 Mton CO2e

Energy Energy Energy Low-carbon Smart Control/ Smart Control/ Smart Control/ 6.0 Modal Shift 3.1 Biofuel 19.8 7.7 Efficiency 11.7 2.3 Efficiency 6.4 19.5 Efficiency 21.8 vehicles monitoring monitoring monitoring Improvement Improvement Improvement

LCCP ENERGY

349.6 Mton CO2e

Improvement of Power Transportation Residential Commercial Industry Supply

32.4 Mton CO2e 17.4 Mton CO2e 7.3 Mton CO2e 40.0 Mton CO2e 252.5 Mton CO2e

Energy Energy Energy Low-carbon Smart Control/ Smart Control/ Smart Control/ 6.4 Modal Shift 2.7 Biofuel 23.3 6.4 Efficiency 11.0 2.0 Efficiency 5.3 17.2 Efficiency 22.8 vehicles monitoring monitoring monitoring Improvement Improvement Improvement

18 Energy Sector

Implementation Mitigation Sub-sector Action 2030 2050

Energy Transportation Low-carbon vehicles % 18 75 efficiency Industry Energy efficiency % 18 75

Smart control/ monitoring % 20 75 Roadmap for Mitigation Action Commercial Energy efficiency % 18 75 in 2030 and 2050 Smart control/ monitoring % 20 75 Residential Energy efficiency % 18 75 Smart control/ monitoring % 20 75 Power supply Improvement of power supply % 18 75

Biofuel Transportation The use of bio-fuel - B100 B100

19 Power Generation Roadmap for Mitigation Action in 2030 and 2050  Coal Fired Power Plant (Co-firing) Power plant Unit 2030 2050  Gas Fired Power Generation Coal TJ 54.985 52.091 Power plant Unit 2030 2050 Biomass TJ 2.894 5.788 PLTU Indramayu Natural gas TJ 25.034 25.034 Energy input TJ 57.879 57.879 Energy input TJ 25.034 25.034 PLTGU Muara Tawar Electricity Production MWh 6.431 6.431 Production MWh 2.980 2.980 Capacity MW 870 870 Capacity MW 829 829 Coal TJ 61.242 58.019 New Natural gas TJ 79.458 158.916 Biomass (1% 2020; 3% 2025; 5% (Development Energy input TJ 79.458 158.916 2030; 10% 2050) TJ 3.223 6.447 Combined Cycle PLTGU Jawa 1 Production MWh 9.491 18.982 PLTU Sukabumi Energy input TJ 64.466 64.466 Power Generation) Capacity MW 2.640 5.280 Electricity Production MWh 7.163 7.163 Natural gas TJ 10 10 Capacity MW 969 969 Energy input TJ 10 10 PLTG Muara Tawar Coal TJ 41.713 39.518 Electricity Production MWh 1 1 Biomass (1% 2020; 3% 2025; 5% Capacity MW 1.114,0 1.114,0 2030; 10% 2050) TJ 2.195 4.391 Natural gas TJ 0 0 Energy input TJ 43.469 43.469 Energy input TJ 0 0 PLTU Cirebon PLTG Cikarang Listrikindo Electricity Production MWh 4.879 4.879 Electricity Production MWh 0 0 Capacity MW 300 300 Intensitas energi MJ/kWh 9 9 Natural gas TJ 3.586 3.586 Energy input TJ 3.586 3.586 Capacity MW 660 660 PLTGU Bekasi Power Coal TJ 123.773 247.546 Electricity Production MWh 427 427 Capacity MW 119 119 Energy input TJ 123.773 247.546 PLTU Indramayu II Electricity Production MWh 14.784 29.568 Capacity MW 2.000 4.000 Coal TJ 57.183 57.183 New Development Energy input TJ 57.183 57.183 (USC Technology) PLTU Jawa 1 Electricity Production MWh 6.830 6.830 Capacity MW 924 924 Coal TJ 122.535 245.070 Energy input TJ 122.535 245.070 PLTU Jawa 3/Cirebon II Electricity Production MWh 14.636 29.272 Capacity MW 1.980 3.960

20 Power Generation Roadmap for Mitigation Action in 2030 and 2050

 Renewable Power Generation Power plant Unit 2030 2050 PLTP Geothermal TJ 62.344 62.344 Salak, Kamojang, Drajat, W. Windu Energy input TJ 62.344 62.344 Electricity Production MWh 7.422 7.422 Capacity MW 1015 1015 New Development PLTP Geothermal TJ 17.613 44.239 Energy input TJ 17.613 44.239 Mitigation in Power Generation: Electricity Production MWh 5.812 14.599 1. Power plant’s development refer to RUPTL 2019-2028 , RUKN (2019- Capacity MW 795 1.997 PLTA Hydro TJ 54.132 54.132 2038) and increase share of renewables (based on the availabilityof Ubrug, Kracak, Energy input TJ 54.132 54.132 renewable energy constraint) Plangan,Lamajan,Cikalong, Production MWh 6.444 6.444 Bengkok, Dago, Saguling, 2. Implementation of clean coal technology, such as Ultra Super Critical Cirata, Jatiluhur Capacity MW 1923 1923 3. Efforts to increase Renewable energy (RE) through biomass cofiring in New Development PLTA Hydro TJ 1.625 5166 Energy input TJ 1.625 5166 existing coal fired power plant (asumption= biomass share of 1% 2020; Production MWh 536 1705 3% 2025; 5% 2030; 10% 2050) Capacity MW 160 509 New Development PLTS Solar TJ 2.074 19.130 4. Increase renewable energy share (mainly geothermal, hydro, solar Energy input TJ 2.074 19.130 (Promotion of solar PV) and waste) Production MWh 519 4.782 Capacity MW 592 5.459 New Development PLTSa Waste TJ 335 335 Energy input TJ 335 335 Production MWh 84 84 Capacity MW 29 57

21 Breakdown of GHGs Emission Reduction Target

2030 2050

CPOS Smart Transition LCCP 5 Control/monitoring Smart Smart Smart 9 8 Energy Efficiency Control/monitoring Control/monitoring 6 3 Control/monitoring Residential Improvement Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency 12 Energy Efficiency

12 Residential Improvement Residential Residential 11 Smart Improvement Improvement 1 Smart Control/monitoring 2 Smart Control/monitoring Smart 3 2 Energy Efficiency Control/monitoring Energy Efficiency Control/monitoring

3 6 Commercial Improvement Commercial Improvement Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency

8 5 Commercial Commercial Improvement Smart Smart 19 Improvement 9 Control/monitoring Control/monitoring Smart Smart 22 Energy Efficiency 17 Control/monitoring Industry 22 Control/monitoring Energy Efficiency Improvement Industry 5

Improvement Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Industry 20 Modal Shift 3 Industry 23 Improvement Improvement

Modal Shift - Low-carbon vehicles 6

Modal Shift Modal Shift 3 Transport Low-carbon vehicles 2 Biofuel 20

Low-carbon vehicles 6 Low-carbon vehicles 6 Transport

Waste Management Transport Transport 0 Biofuel 9 Biofuel 15 Biofuel 23 Landuse/Tree planting(3) Improvement of 26 Improvement of Power Improvement of Power Improvement of Power Power Supply 89 179 252 Supply Supply Supply

- 10 20 30 - 40 80 (50) 50 150 - 200

million ton CO2e million ton CO2e million ton CO2e million ton CO2e

22 Emission reduction achieved (2019) vs emission reduction target in Energy Sector (Include Power Sub-sector) 70

60 Energy Efficiency Improvement; Co-firing, Increase RE share Improvement of Power Supply 50 Landuse/Tree planting

Waste Management 40 Biofuel

Low-carbon vehicles 30

Modal Shift Reduction, MtonCO2e Reduction,

20 Energy Efficiency Improvement

Smart Control/monitoring

10 Energy Efficiency Improvement

Emission reduction Smart Control/monitoring achieved in 2019 is 6.7% - of reduction target in 2015 軸ラベル2030 2050 2030

Source: GHG reduction in 2019 derived from Measurement, Reporting, and Verification of West Java

23 Conclusion and Remarks

The Projections on GHGs emission and its reduction potential

% Reduction 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050 BaU CM Reduction BaU CPOS Reduction CM CPOS

a) Energy (final) 63.8 185 28.4% 36.1% CO2 emissions (Mton CO2e) 90.1 224.6 160,8 512.3 327.3 by sector b) Power 18.55 55.68 51.92 3.76 91.52 81.7 9.82 6.7% 10.7%

Total CO emissions (Mton CO e) 108.7 280.3 211.8 68.5 194.9 24.4% 32.2% 2 2 603.9 409.0 CO emissions per GDP (tCO e/mil. Rp) 2 2 0.09 0.11 0.08 0.09 0.06 CO emissions per capita (tCO e/person) 2 2 2.33 5.08 3.88 9.64 6.53 C emissions per capita (tC/person) 0.05 0.12 0.09 0.22 0.15

 GHGs emission reduction target from energy sector (include power sub-sector) is 68.5 Mton CO2e or equivalent with 24.4% reduction in 2030; and 194.9 Mton CO2e or equivalent with 32.2% reduction in 2050

 GHGs emission reduction achieved in 2019 is 4.596 Mton CO2e that derived from transportation sub-sector or equivalent with 6.7% of GHGs emission reduction target in 2030.  There are still rooms for improvement on mitigation action from energy sector and waste sector to achieve GHGs emission reduction target in 2030 and 2050.

24 THANK YOU

[email protected] or [email protected]

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