For Sin Chew Jit Poh 1957 New Year Message by Mr Lee

FOR SIN CHEW JIT POH

1957 NEW YEAR MESSAGE BY MR LEE KUAN YEW

So many things have happened in 1956 both in Malaya and in the international fields that it may be forgotten that the two important Malayan political events in 1956 were the success of the Federation Merdeka talks in February, and the failure of the Singapore Merdeka talks in May.

In the second half of the year Malayan events were dwarfed into insignificance by two world shattering crisis, the brutal British-French-Israeli attack on Egypt and the Suez Canal, and the bloody and armed suppression of the

Hungarian revolt by Russian armed forces.

Today as we stand on the thresholds of the new year, the smoking embers of these two international fires, still fill the horizon. But unless these two crises break into a third world war, which is unlikely, it will be more the events in Malaya which will affect the course of our lives this year.

The next Singapore Merdeka talks by April this year and the independence of the Federation expected by the 31st August 1957 will be the two important Malayan

lky\1957\lky0100c.doc 2 events for the year. For both the events mean, new general elections sooner or later in the Federation and in Singapore. In the Federation if elections are held immediately in August or September then it is likely that the Alliance led by UMNO will win, though probably with a less spectacular majority than the 51 out of 52 majority of August, 1955. But the Tungku has recently stated that there will probably be no elections for at least a year which means elections in August, 1958.

By then many more things would have happened in the Federation.

But as from August 1957 the Alliance Government will be responsible for everything other than military matters. It can no longer blame the British for the people's social and economic discontent. For although Britain still has control of our economic life through her investments in rubber and tin and control of the importation and distribution of consumer goods, the open visible control of our destiny is in the hands of elected Ministers. If these men do not produce results, then by August 1958 the elections will produce a shake-up in the leadership of the country. But whoever may constitute the new leadership it will still be moderate, perhaps slightly conservative, and at most liberal in its political beliefs. For such is the electorate and the leadership of the political parties in the Federation.

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More exciting and less predictable will be the next Singapore elections. The next Merdeka talks from present indications, will produce an agreement for complete internal self-government for Singapore. Last year it failed over the composition of the Defence and Security Council. The British wanted the final say. Now they may be ready to let the Federation have the final say. For it must by now be obvious to the British, particularly after the experience of last October's riots, that if the

Federation is against them then they cannot hold Singapore.

Agreement in a new constitution must mean new elections. No one will be so rash as to pretend to predict which party will win the elections. But even a political innocent must know that the present balance of political leadership of the various parties will alter beyond recognition. First it can be safely predicted that many new groups, and even some new political parties may come out to compete to win power.

Next it is obvious that the British who are still powerful under the Rendel

Constitution, which will go on until the next elections under the new constitution, will do everything possible to prevent any group which they consider "subversive" from competing in the elections. In this way as Mr. Lim Yew Hock said in London recently, Singapore "has been made safe from Communism for many years to come".

But there are other forces in the field which the British may find difficult to eliminate from the competition. These are non-Communist anti-Colonial forces. For the

British to try and eliminate such groups from competing in the elections may only

lky\1957\lky0100c.doc 4 make matters worse for the British by forcing such groups into one camp with the

Communists. Altogether we can say that Singapore's next elections should be as exciting as the last one and may produce even bigger surprises.

But whatever the results of the Singapore elections, which the present

Government has promised will be held this August, but which the Colonial office may arrange to see that it is not in August, the British know that the scope is limited for any elected Government in

Singapore whatever its political beliefs and whatever its policies. Economically and strategically Singapore is controlled by the Federation. Singapore's entrepot trade depends largely on the Federation. Singapore's industrialisation depends on the

Federation as a market for its finished products. And Singapore's water supply depends on the Federation. In short Singapore cannot go against the policies of the

Federation Government and hope to survive if the Federation Government retaliates.

The recent affair of $3,000.00 allowance for income tax being reduced by $500.- and then put back to $3,000.00 after Lim Yew Hock appealed to the Tungku, and the even more recent suggestion that Singapore should pay a yearly tribute to the

Federation to get them to lower their tariff against goods manufactured in Singapore are vivid reminders of Singapore's vulnerable position.

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The battle for an independant and democratic Malaya is being decided in the

Federation. And whether an independant Malaya is to be Capitalist or Socialist or

Communist will also be decided in the Federation. The British are not the only ones who realise this. Let us not forget that no political situation is static. With the institution of parliamentary democracy where a Government is chosen by secret ballot, the people can always and will always reject a party which does not produce the better life which the people expect of their own Government. British High

Commissioners and British Advisers in the Malay States can stay in power although they do little good for the people, because they rule ultimately by the bayonet. But

Prime Ministers of Malaya can only remain in power if they retain the support of the people at the next elections. And the people will continue to support them only if they support the people's interests.

Whatever the twists and turns of political events in Malaya, the Federation and Singapore, the people of Malaya can look forward to the future with confidence, for Prime Ministers and their Governments may come and go, but with the right to choose their Government by secret ballot, the people's power to decide their own future will remain.

LEE KUAN YEW

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