This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research
Volume Title: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy
Volume Author/Editor: Stanley Fischer, editor
Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Volume ISBN: 0-226-25134-9
Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/fisc80-1
Publication Date: 1980
Chapter Title: Front matter, table of contents, acknowledgment
Chapter Author: Stanley Fischer
Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6257
Chapter pages in book: (p. -11 - 0)
This Page Intentionally Left Blank Rational Expectations and Economic Policy A Conference Report National Bureau of Economic Research Rational Expectations and Economic Policy
Edited by Stanley Fischer
The University of Chicago Press
Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London 01980 by The National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 1980 Paperback edition 1981 Printed in the United States of America 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 85 84 543
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Main entry under title:
Rational expectations and economic policy.
(A Conference report-National Bureau of Economic Research) Proceedings of a conference sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research, held at Bald Peak Colony Club, N.H., in Oct. 1978. Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. United States-Economic policy-1971- Congresses. 2. Monetary policy-United States- Congresses. 1. Fischer, Stanley. 11. National Bureau of Economic Research. 111. Series: National Bureau of Economic Research. Conference report-National Bureau of Economic Research. HC106.7.R3 338.973 79-22661 ISBN 0-226-25134-9 (paper) 0-226-25136-5 (cloth) National Bureau of Economic Research Arthur F. Burns, honorary chairman Charles E. McLure, Jr., vice-president James J. OLeary, chairman Charles A. Walworth, treasurer Eli Shapiro, vice-chairman Sam Parker, director of finance and Martin S. Feldstein, president administration
Directors at Large Moses Abramovitz Walter W. Heller Robert V. Roosa Arthur F. Bums Walter E. Hoadley Richard N. Rosett George T. Conklin, Jr. Roy E. Moor Bert Seidman Morton Ehrlich Geoffrey H. Moore Eli Shapiro Solomon Fabricant Michael H. Moskow Stephen Stamas Martin S. Feldstein James J. O’Leary Lazare Teper Edward L. Ginzton Peter G. Peterson Donald S. Wasserman David L. Grove
Directors by University Appointment Gardner Ackley, Michigan James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley George Leland Bach, Stanford Lloyd G. Reynolds, Yale Charles H. Berry, Princeton Robert M. Solow, Massachusetts Otto Eckstein, Harvard Institute of Technology Walter D. Fisher, Northwestern Robert R. Sterling, Rice John H. Kareken, Minnesota Henri Theil, Chicago J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles William S. Vickrey, Columbia Almarin Phillips, Pennsylvania Burton A. Weisbrod, Wisconsin
Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Eugene A. Birnbaum, American Douglas C. North, Economic History Management Associations A ssociation Carl F. Christ, American Economic Rudolph A. Oswald, American Fcdera- Association tion of Labor and Congress of Stephan F. Kaliski, Canadian Eco- Industrial Organizations nomics Association G. Edward Schuh, American Agricul- Franklin A. Lindsay, Committee for tural Economics Association Economic Development James C. Van Horne, American Paul W. McCracken, American Finance Association Statistical Association Charles A. Walworth, American Albert G. Matamoros, National Assoc.ia- Institute of Certified Public tion of Business Economists A ccountants
Directors Emeriti Emilio G. Collado Albert J. Hettinger, Jr. Willard Thorp Frank Fetter George B. Roberts Joseph H. Willits Thomas D. Flynn Murray Shields Theodore 0. Yntema Gottfried Haberler Boris Shishkin
Since this volume is a record of conference proceedings, it has been exempted from the rules governing critical review of manuscripts by the Board of Directors of the National Bureau (resolution adopted 6 July 1948, as revised 21 November 1949 and 20 April 1968). This Page Intentionally Left Blank Contents
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction 1 Stanley Fischer
1. Rational Expectations, Business Cycles, and Government Behavior 5 Herschel I. Grossman
2. Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity 23 Robert J. Barro and Mark Rush Comments: Alan Blinder, Robert J. Gordon, and Robert Weintraub General Discussion
3. The Monetary Mechanism in the Light of Rational Expectations 75 Olivier Jean Blanchard Comments: Bennet T. McCallum, Michael Parkin, and David E. Lindsey General Discussion
4. Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates? 117 Robert J. Shiller Comments: Phillip Cagan, Charles R. Nelson, James L. Pierce, and Martin Feldstein General Discussion vii viii Contents
5. A Competitive Theory of Fluctuations and the Feasibility and Desirability of Stabilization Policy 169 Finn Kydland and Edward C. Prescott Comments: Martin Feldstein, Robert E. Hall, and John B. Taylor General Discussion
6. Rules, Discretion, and the Role of the Economic Advisor 199 Robert E. Lucas
7. On Activist Monetary Policy with Rational Expectations 21 1 Stanley Fischer Comments on Chapters 6 and 7:Robert E. Hall, Mark H. Willes, and Peter Howitt General Discussion of Chapters 6 and 7
8. What to Do (Macroeconomically) When OPEC Comes 249 Robert M. Solow Comment: Neil Wallace
9. Macroeconomic Policy, 1971-75: An Appraisal 269 William Poole Comment: James L. Pierce General Discussion of Chapters 8 and 9
List of Participants 285 Index 289 Acknowledgments
The conference at which the papers in this book were presented was funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation to the Na- tional Bureau of Economic Research. Maureen Kay, Martin Feldstein, and Charles McLure of the Bureau did much of the hard work for the conference. I am indebted to David Modest, John Huizinga, and Matthew Butlin for substantial assistance at different stages in the editing of the book. S.F.
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