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Investment Insights
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE Investment Insights AUGUST 2017 Matthew Diczok A Focus on the Fed Head of Fixed Income Strategy An Overview of the Federal Reserve System and a Look at Potential Personnel Changes SUMMARY After years of accommodative policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on its path to policy normalization. The Fed forecasts another rate hike in late 2017, and three hikes in each of the next two years. The Fed also plans to taper reinvestments of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, gradually reducing its balance sheet. The market thinks differently. Emboldened by inflation persistently below target, it expects the Fed to move significantly more slowly, with only one to three rate hikes between now and early 2019. One way or another, this discrepancy will be reconciled, with important implications for asset prices and yields. Against this backdrop, changes in personnel at the Fed are very important, and have been underappreciated by markets. The Fed has three open board seats, and the Chair and Vice Chair are both up for reappointment in 2018. If the administration appoints a Fed Chair and Vice Chair who are not currently governors, then there will be five new, permanent voting members who determine rate moves—almost half of the 12-member committee. This would be unprecedented in the modern era. Similar to its potential influence on the Supreme Court, this administration has the ability to set the tone of monetary policy for many years into the future. Most rumored candidates share philosophical leanings at odds with the current board; they are generally hawkish relative to current policy, favor rules-based decision-making over discretionary, and are unconvinced that successive rounds of quantitative easing were beneficial. -
Interview of Stanley Fischer by Olivier Blanchard
UBRARIBS Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium IVIember Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/interviewofstanlOOblan 2 DEWEY HB31 .M415 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series Interview of Stanley Fischer By Olivier Blanchard Working Paper 05-1 April 1 9, 2005 Room E52-251 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 021 42 This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Networl< Paper Collection at http://ssrn.com/abstract=707821 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY APR 2 6 2005 LIBRARIES Interview of Stanley Fischer, by Olivier Blanchard.i Abstract Stanley Fischer is a macroeconomist par excellence. After three careers, the first in academia at Chicago, and at MIT, the second at the World Bank and at the International Monetary Fund, the third in the private sector at Citigroup, he is starting a fourth, as the head of the Central Bank of Israel. This interview, to be published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, took place in April 2004, before the start of his fourth career. This interview took place long before Stan had any idea he would become Governor of the Bank of Israel, a position he took up in May 2005. We have not changed the text to reflect this latest stage. Introduction. The interview took place in April 2004 in my office at the Russell Sage Foundation in New York City, where I was spending a sabbatical year. We completed it while running together in Central Park during the following weeks. Our meeting at Russell Sage was just like the many meetings we have had over the years. -
A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard
10922-01_Gordon_REV.qxd 1/25/08 11:05 AM Page 1 ROBERT J. GORDON Northwestern University A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard YOUNGER READERS OF THIS volume may not appreciate how creative was the invention of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, how much it changed the way applied economics is communicated, and how magic has been its appeal to economists young and old, the novices and the famous, over its many years of operation. Within ten years of its creation, it had become one of the four most circulated academic journals in economics. The Brookings Papers started at 1:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 16, 1970, with my first paper on the Phillips curve,1 which was discussed by none other than George Perry and Robert Solow. Right from the start, the Brookings Papers was the place to go to for up-to-date analysis of the macroeconomic puzzles of the day. A scorecard of frequent contributors to the Brookings Papers over the years would include many of the great and famous economists of our day: not just Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, but other luminaries including Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley Fischer, Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs, and Lawrence Summers, not to mention the Nobel Prize contingent of George Akerlof, Franco Modigliani, Edmund Phelps, Robert Solow, and James Tobin. It is a supreme tribute to Perry and Brainard— and to Arthur Okun, the journal’s cofounder with Perry—that, when they asked, these people came, whether they were famous then or would become so only later. -
Media Release
Australian High Commission, Kuala Lumpur MEDIA RELEASE 15 DECEMBER 2017 Deepening Australia’s engagement with the Muslim world – visit to Malaysia by Australia’s Special Envoy to the OIC, Mr Ahmed Fahour AO Australia’s Special Envoy to the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Mr Ahmed Fahour AO, visited Malaysia for a one-day official visit yesterday. Mr Fahour called on Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department, Dato’ Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki, to discuss Australia’s engagement with the OIC, Islamic banking and finance, as well as key challenges facing the Muslim world. They also shared experiences on countering violent extremism. Mr Fahour was treated to a tour and prayers at Masjid Negara with the Grand Imam, Tan Sri Syaikh Ismail Muhammad. He also had lunch with local experts and commentators, to exchange views on trends in Islam in Australia and Malaysia. A highlight for Mr Fahour was a visit to the “Faith, Fashion, Fusion: Muslim Women’s Style in Australia” exhibition at the Islamic Arts Museum Malaysia, which is being displayed for the first time internationally with the support of the Australian Government and Lendlease Malaysia. Developed by the Museum of Applied Arts and Sciences in Sydney, “Faith, Fashion Fusion” explores the experiences and achievements of Australian Muslim women and how they express their faith through fashion. It also displays Australia’s growing modest fashion market and the work of a new generation of Muslim designers and entrepreneurs. Mr Fahour, who is also the Patron of the Islamic Museum of Australia said, “The exhibition showcases the diversity of Australia’s Muslim communities and the significant contribution they make to Australia’s contemporary, multicultural society.” Mr Fahour welcomed these efforts that help to build understanding and respect between the Islamic community and other faiths and cultures. -
Stanley Fischer
Stanley Fischer: Monetary policy - by rule, by committee, or by both? Speech by Mr Stanley Fischer, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the 2017 US Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York City, 3 March 2017. * * * In recent years, reforms in the monetary policy decisionmaking process in central banks have been in the direction of an increasing number of monetary policy committees and fewer single decisionmakers – the lone governor model.1 We are only a few months away from the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, just a few years after the 300th birthday of the venerable Old Lady of Threadneedle Street. The Bank of Israel moved from a single policymaker to a monetary policy committee in 2010, while I was governor there; more recently, central banks in India and New Zealand have handed over monetary policy to committees. The Federal Reserve is not part of this recent shift, however. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been responsible for monetary policy decisions in the United States since it was established by the Banking Act of 1935, two decades after the founding of the Fed itself.2 The movement toward committees reflects the advantages of committees in aggregating a wide range of information, perspectives, and models. Despite the prevalence and importance of committees in modern central banking, the role of committees in the formulation of policy -
Group Corporate Affairs
Group Corporate Affairs 500 Bourke Street Melbourne Victoria 3000 AUSTRALIA www.nabgroup.com National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 ASX Announcement Monday 17 November 2008 NAB Australian Region market update National Australia Bank Executive Director and CEO Australia, Ahmed Fahour, is conducting a series of market briefings following the release of the NAB full year results on Tuesday 21 October. The briefing materials are attached and are largely based on the information disclosed during the full year results announcement. “NAB’s Australian Region continues to deliver excellent results in a challenging market, demonstrating increased revenue growth and a tight focus on cost control,” Mr Fahour said. “This is an outstanding achievement when viewed in the context of the external environment over the course of the year. “Throughout this difficult time NAB has continued to invest in our business by developing new brands such as UBank, extending our microfinance initiatives, delivering new products such as the Clear home loan, and commencing new infrastructure initiatives such as our Next Generation platform. “NAB has remained strong through these challenging conditions, and continues to focus on providing excellent support and service to our customers,” Mr Fahour said. Australian Region Financial Performance The Australia Region delivered cash earnings growth (before IoRE) of 15.8% and underlying profit growth of 19.3% over the prior comparative period. Revenue growth of 10.1% was an excellent result achieved in a very challenging environment. The strong performance of cash earnings growth of 18.5% by the Australia Banking business reflects continued momentum in business lending and consumer deposit gathering. -
BCA 2012 Annual Review: One Country. Many Voices
ONE COUNTRY. MANY VOICES. ANNUAL REVIEW 2012 04 OUR MEMBERS 26 OUR ACHIEVEMENTS 08 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE 28 ONE COUNTRY, MANY VOICES 11 CHIEF EXECUTIVE’S MESSAGE 30 PUBLICATIONS 14 ABOUT US 15 OUR VISION, GOAL AND VALUES 16 HOW WE WORK Cover: Yuyuya Nampitjinpa, 18 OUR STRUCTURE Women’s Ceremony, 2011 © 2012 Yuyuya Nampitjinpa licensed 24 OUR WORK PROGRAM by Aboriginal Artists Agency Limited ONE COUNTRY. MANY VOICES. The Business Council of Australia (BCA) has been talking with people and organisations from different parts of the community. The intention, on all sides, has been simple: to fi nd common ground on goals for achieving national wealth for Australia. Not the fi nancial wealth of a few, but enduring prosperity for all. This means rewarding jobs, a better health and aged care system, world’s best education and training, and quality infrastructure to meet our needs into the future. Choices and opportunities that don’t leave groups of Australians behind. The BCA’s vision is for Australia to be the best place in the world to live, learn, work and do business. Our members bring their collective experience in planning, innovating, leading and inspiring. Working with others to develop interconnected policy responses, we can transcend limited short-term thinking to envision a future we would wish for the generations to follow. It’s time to show that together we’re up for the tough conversations, the planning and the collaboration needed to secure our nation’s enduring prosperity. 3 Our members BCA membership details throughout this review are valid as at 1 October 2012. -
What I Learned at the World Economic Crisis by Joseph Stiglitz New Republic April 17, 2000
What I Learned at the World Economic Crisis By Joseph Stiglitz New Republic April 17, 2000 Next week's meeting of the International Monetary Fund will bring to Washington, D.C., many of the same demonstrators who trashed the World Trade Organization in Seattle last fall. They'll say the IMF is arrogant. They'll say the IMF doesn't really listen to the developing countries it is supposed to help. They'll say the IMF is secretive and insulated from democratic accountability. They'll say the IMF's economic "remedies" often make things worseturning slowdowns into recessions and recessions into depressions. And they'll have a point. I was chief economist at the World Bank from 1996 until last November, during the gravest global economic crisis in a halfcentury. I saw how the IMF, in tandem with the U.S. Treasury Department, responded. And I was appalled. The global economic crisis began in Thailand, on July 2, 1997. The countries of East Asia were coming off a miraculous three decades: incomes had soared, health had improved, poverty had fallen dramatically. Not only was literacy now universal, but, on international science and math tests, many of these countries outperformed the United States. Some had not suffered a single year of recession in 30 years. But the seeds of calamity had already been planted. In the early '90s, East Asian countries had liberalized their financial and capital marketsnot because they needed to attract more funds (savings rates were already 30 percent or more) but because of international pressure, including some from the U.S. -
Monetary Rules and Committees Stanley Fischer
CHAPTER SIX Monetary Rules and Committees Stanley Fischer In this chapter, I off er some observations on monetary policy rules and their place in decision making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).1 I have two messages. First, policy makers should consult the prescriptions of policy rules, but—almost need- less to say—they should avoid applying them mechanically. Sec- ond, policy- making committees have strengths that policy rules lack. In particular, committees are an effi cient means of aggregating a wide variety of information and perspectives. MONETARY POLICY RULES IN RESEARCH AND POLICY Since May 2014, I have considered monetary policy rules from the vantage point of a member of the FOMC. But my interest in them began many years ago and was refl ected in some of my earliest publications.2 At that time, the literature on monetary policy rules, especially in the United States, remained predominantly concerned with the money stock or total bank reserves rather than the short- 1. Views expressed in this presentation are my own and not necessarily the views of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. I am grateful to Ed Nelson of the Federal Reserve Board for his assistance. 2. See, for example, Cooper and Fischer (1972). 202 Fischer term interest rate.3 Seen with the benefi t of hindsight, that empha- sis probably derived from three sources: fi rst, the quantity theory of money emphasized the link between the quantity of money and infl ation; second, the research was carried out when monetarism was gaining credibility in the profession; and third, there was a concern that interest rate rules might lead to price- level indeter- minacy—an issue disposed of by Bennett McCallum and others.4 Subsequently, John Taylor’s research, especially his celebrated 1993 paper, was a catalyst in shift ing the focus toward rules for the short- term interest rate.5 Taylor’s work thus helped change the terms of the discussion in favor of rules for the instrument that central banks prefer to use. -
Kopi Time E050 Transcript: Piyush Gupta on the Future of Banks, Work, Data Privacy, and Sustainability
Economics & Strategy DBS F lash Kopi Time E050 Transcript: Piyush Gupta on the future of banks, work, data privacy, and sustainability Group Research March 22, 2021 • 50th episode of Kopi time, a podcast series on Taimur Baig, Chief Economist markets and economies from DBS Group [email protected] Research. Recorded on 12th March, 2021. • Youtube link is here. Available also on all major podcast platforms, including Apple, Spotify, Amazon, and Google. Piyush Gupta Guest Speaker Producer: Martin Tacchi Publication support: Violet Lee and Daisy Sharma Please direct distribution queries to Violet Lee +65 68785281 [email protected] Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. Kopi Time E050: Piyush Gupta on banks, work, data privacy, sustainability March 22, 2021 Welcome to Kopi Time, a podcast series on markets downtime and making every service available to the and Economies from DBS Group Research. I'm consumer at scale around the world was not easy. I Taimur Baig, chief economist, welcoming you to our think banks have benefited from the recognition half century mark. Yes, it's the 50th episode, and we that they were able to support customers through have a very special guest with us. this period. So, I think that's the second positive. Piyush Gupta is Chief Executive Officer and Director A third positive to me is the first cousin of that. I of DBS Group. He has been with us since 2009. Prior think banks, and particularly at DBS, we also to that, Piyush spent 27 years at Citigroup, where his stretched ourselves to find new solutions through last assignment was CEO for Southeast Asia, this period of time. -
The Greening of Finance Roundtable Briefing
The Greening of Finance Roundtable Briefing Session Information 2 Roundtable Leaders 3 Roundtable Participants 4 Topic Overview 5 Sample Panel Topics 6 Background Reading 7 neweconomyforum.com [email protected] Session Information Session Title: Greening of Finance Date & Time: Wednesday November 7, 2018 – 9:15 – 10:05am Location: Specific breakout room will be listed in the Forum App Logistics: . Leaders: Please arrive 5 minutes prior to the start of your session to meet the moderator [9:10am] . Press plan: Open but not broadcast . Session length: 50 min Description: Climate change is one of the greatest threats today to the global well being, ranging from economic threats stemming from changing weather patterns, exposure to climate risk for global companies, and pollution of the air, water and soil from which we grow our food. In most countries, the political will exists to tackle this threat, yet are experts predicting that it will cost governments close to $2 trillion to implement the commitments of the Paris Agreement. The biggest challenge is financing these goals. Governments are able to finance approximately 10-15% of these commitments, therefore to be successful, private sector financing is a critical part of the solution. But how can they create the financial instruments, public and private, to attract the necessary capital? Format: RoundtableTimeline Discussion Agenda 3 min Host opens the roundtable • Frames the challenge • Summarizes the topic • Explains the format 21 min Moderator introduces and calls on the Firestarters Firestarters speak (2-3 min each) 24 min Moderator opens conversation to the room • Calls on delegates individually to share ideas, reactions, comments (1-2 min each) 2 min Moderator wraps roundtable Bloomberg New Economy Forum 2 Roundtable Leaders Hank Paulson Host: Chair, New Economy Forum Former U.S. -
Annual Report
citigroup.com ©2007 Citigroup Inc. 55504 3/07 CIT24001 the Citi Board of Directors C. Michael Armstrong Roberto Hernández Ramírez Richard D. Parsons Chairman, Board of Trustees Chairman, Banco Nacional de Mexico Chairman & CEO, Time Warner Inc. Johns Hopkins Medicine, Health Systems & Hospital Ann Dibble Jordan* Charles Prince Consultant Chairman & CEO, Citigroup Inc. Alain J.P. Belda Chairman & CEO, Alcoa Inc. Klaus Kleinfeld Judith Rodin our shared President & CEO, Siemens AG President, Rockefeller Foundation George David Chairman & CEO, United Andrew N. Liveris Robert E. Rubin Technologies Corporation Chairman & CEO, Chairman Executive Committee The Dow Chemical Company Kenneth T. Derr Franklin A. Thomas responsibilities Dudley C. Mecum* Chairman, Retired, Chevron Consultant, The Study Group Corporation Managing Director, Capricorn Holdings, LLC John M. Deutch We have a responsibility to We have a responsibility to Institute Professor, Massachusetts Anne M. Mulcahy Chairman & CEO, Xerox Corporation our clients our franchise Institute of Technology We must put our clients fi rst, provide We must put Citi’s long-term interests *Retired as of April 17, 2007 superior advice, products and services, ahead of each unit’s short-term gains and always act with the highest level and provide superior results for our of integrity. shareholders. We must respect the local culture and take an active role in We have a responsibility to the communities where we work and each other live. We must honor those who came before us and extend our legacy for We must provide outstanding people those who will come after us. the best opportunity to realize their potential. We must treat our teammates with respect, champion our remarkable diversity, share the responsibility for our successes, and accept accountability for our failures.