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Investment Insights
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE Investment Insights AUGUST 2017 Matthew Diczok A Focus on the Fed Head of Fixed Income Strategy An Overview of the Federal Reserve System and a Look at Potential Personnel Changes SUMMARY After years of accommodative policy, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on its path to policy normalization. The Fed forecasts another rate hike in late 2017, and three hikes in each of the next two years. The Fed also plans to taper reinvestments of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, gradually reducing its balance sheet. The market thinks differently. Emboldened by inflation persistently below target, it expects the Fed to move significantly more slowly, with only one to three rate hikes between now and early 2019. One way or another, this discrepancy will be reconciled, with important implications for asset prices and yields. Against this backdrop, changes in personnel at the Fed are very important, and have been underappreciated by markets. The Fed has three open board seats, and the Chair and Vice Chair are both up for reappointment in 2018. If the administration appoints a Fed Chair and Vice Chair who are not currently governors, then there will be five new, permanent voting members who determine rate moves—almost half of the 12-member committee. This would be unprecedented in the modern era. Similar to its potential influence on the Supreme Court, this administration has the ability to set the tone of monetary policy for many years into the future. Most rumored candidates share philosophical leanings at odds with the current board; they are generally hawkish relative to current policy, favor rules-based decision-making over discretionary, and are unconvinced that successive rounds of quantitative easing were beneficial.
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Interview of Stanley Fischer by Olivier Blanchard
UBRARIBS Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2011 with funding from Boston Library Consortium IVIember Libraries http://www.archive.org/details/interviewofstanlOOblan 2 DEWEY HB31 .M415 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series Interview of Stanley Fischer By Olivier Blanchard Working Paper 05-1 April 1 9, 2005 Room E52-251 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 021 42 This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Networl< Paper Collection at http://ssrn.com/abstract=707821 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY APR 2 6 2005 LIBRARIES Interview of Stanley Fischer, by Olivier Blanchard.i Abstract Stanley Fischer is a macroeconomist par excellence. After three careers, the first in academia at Chicago, and at MIT, the second at the World Bank and at the International Monetary Fund, the third in the private sector at Citigroup, he is starting a fourth, as the head of the Central Bank of Israel. This interview, to be published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, took place in April 2004, before the start of his fourth career. This interview took place long before Stan had any idea he would become Governor of the Bank of Israel, a position he took up in May 2005. We have not changed the text to reflect this latest stage. Introduction. The interview took place in April 2004 in my office at the Russell Sage Foundation in New York City, where I was spending a sabbatical year. We completed it while running together in Central Park during the following weeks. Our meeting at Russell Sage was just like the many meetings we have had over the years.
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A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard
10922-01_Gordon_REV.qxd 1/25/08 11:05 AM Page 1 ROBERT J. GORDON Northwestern University A Tribute to George Perry and William Brainard YOUNGER READERS OF THIS volume may not appreciate how creative was the invention of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, how much it changed the way applied economics is communicated, and how magic has been its appeal to economists young and old, the novices and the famous, over its many years of operation. Within ten years of its creation, it had become one of the four most circulated academic journals in economics. The Brookings Papers started at 1:30 p.m. on Thursday, April 16, 1970, with my ﬁrst paper on the Phillips curve,1 which was discussed by none other than George Perry and Robert Solow. Right from the start, the Brookings Papers was the place to go to for up-to-date analysis of the macroeconomic puzzles of the day. A scorecard of frequent contributors to the Brookings Papers over the years would include many of the great and famous economists of our day: not just Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, but other luminaries including Olivier Blanchard, Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley Fischer, Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs, and Lawrence Summers, not to mention the Nobel Prize contingent of George Akerlof, Franco Modigliani, Edmund Phelps, Robert Solow, and James Tobin. It is a supreme tribute to Perry and Brainard— and to Arthur Okun, the journal’s cofounder with Perry—that, when they asked, these people came, whether they were famous then or would become so only later.
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Stanley Fischer
Stanley Fischer: Monetary policy - by rule, by committee, or by both? Speech by Mr Stanley Fischer, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, at the 2017 US Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York City, 3 March 2017. * * * In recent years, reforms in the monetary policy decisionmaking process in central banks have been in the direction of an increasing number of monetary policy committees and fewer single decisionmakers – the lone governor model.1 We are only a few months away from the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, just a few years after the 300th birthday of the venerable Old Lady of Threadneedle Street. The Bank of Israel moved from a single policymaker to a monetary policy committee in 2010, while I was governor there; more recently, central banks in India and New Zealand have handed over monetary policy to committees. The Federal Reserve is not part of this recent shift, however. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been responsible for monetary policy decisions in the United States since it was established by the Banking Act of 1935, two decades after the founding of the Fed itself.2 The movement toward committees reflects the advantages of committees in aggregating a wide range of information, perspectives, and models. Despite the prevalence and importance of committees in modern central banking, the role of committees in the formulation of policy
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What I Learned at the World Economic Crisis by Joseph Stiglitz New Republic April 17, 2000
What I Learned at the World Economic Crisis By Joseph Stiglitz New Republic April 17, 2000 Next week's meeting of the International Monetary Fund will bring to Washington, D.C., many of the same demonstrators who trashed the World Trade Organization in Seattle last fall. They'll say the IMF is arrogant. They'll say the IMF doesn't really listen to the developing countries it is supposed to help. They'll say the IMF is secretive and insulated from democratic accountability. They'll say the IMF's economic "remedies" often make things worseturning slowdowns into recessions and recessions into depressions. And they'll have a point. I was chief economist at the World Bank from 1996 until last November, during the gravest global economic crisis in a halfcentury. I saw how the IMF, in tandem with the U.S. Treasury Department, responded. And I was appalled. The global economic crisis began in Thailand, on July 2, 1997. The countries of East Asia were coming off a miraculous three decades: incomes had soared, health had improved, poverty had fallen dramatically. Not only was literacy now universal, but, on international science and math tests, many of these countries outperformed the United States. Some had not suffered a single year of recession in 30 years. But the seeds of calamity had already been planted. In the early '90s, East Asian countries had liberalized their financial and capital marketsnot because they needed to attract more funds (savings rates were already 30 percent or more) but because of international pressure, including some from the U.S.
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Monetary Rules and Committees Stanley Fischer
CHAPTER SIX Monetary Rules and Committees Stanley Fischer In this chapter, I off er some observations on monetary policy rules and their place in decision making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).1 I have two messages. First, policy makers should consult the prescriptions of policy rules, but—almost need- less to say—they should avoid applying them mechanically. Sec- ond, policy- making committees have strengths that policy rules lack. In particular, committees are an effi cient means of aggregating a wide variety of information and perspectives. MONETARY POLICY RULES IN RESEARCH AND POLICY Since May 2014, I have considered monetary policy rules from the vantage point of a member of the FOMC. But my interest in them began many years ago and was refl ected in some of my earliest publications.2 At that time, the literature on monetary policy rules, especially in the United States, remained predominantly concerned with the money stock or total bank reserves rather than the short- 1. Views expressed in this presentation are my own and not necessarily the views of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. I am grateful to Ed Nelson of the Federal Reserve Board for his assistance. 2. See, for example, Cooper and Fischer (1972). 202 Fischer term interest rate.3 Seen with the benefi t of hindsight, that empha- sis probably derived from three sources: fi rst, the quantity theory of money emphasized the link between the quantity of money and infl ation; second, the research was carried out when monetarism was gaining credibility in the profession; and third, there was a concern that interest rate rules might lead to price- level indeter- minacy—an issue disposed of by Bennett McCallum and others.4 Subsequently, John Taylor’s research, especially his celebrated 1993 paper, was a catalyst in shift ing the focus toward rules for the short- term interest rate.5 Taylor’s work thus helped change the terms of the discussion in favor of rules for the instrument that central banks prefer to use.
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Financial Crises and Reform of the International Financial System
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FINANCIAL CRISES AND REFORM OF THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM Stanley Fischer Working Paper 9297 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9297 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2002 This is a slightly revised version of the Harms Lecture delivered at the Kiel Institute of World Economics, June 29, 2002. I draw freely on Chapter 2 of my Robbins Lectures presented at the London School of Economics, October 29-31 2001, The International Financial System: Crises and Reform. I am grateful to Prachi Mishra of Columbia University for assistance, and to my former colleagues at the International Monetary Fund for their direct assistance and for many discussions over the years that helped develop the views expressed in this lecture. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2002 by Stanley Fischer. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Financial Crises and Reform of the International Financial System Stanley Fischer NBER Working Paper No. 9297 October 2002 JEL No. E5, E6, F3, F4, G1 ABSTRACT Between December 1994 and March 1999, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Russia and Brazil experienced major financial crises which were associated with massive recessions and extreme movements of exchange rates. Similar crises have threatened Turkey and Argentina (2000 and 2001) and most recently Brazil (again). This article discusses the reform of the international financial system with a focus on the role of the IMF - reforms directed at crisis prevention, and those intended to improve the responses to crises.
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Lawrence H. Summers Curriculum Vitae
LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS CURRICULUM VITAE OFFICE 79 John F. Kennedy St. John F. Kennedy School of Government Littauer 244 Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 (617) 495-9322 EDUCATION Ph.D., Harvard University, 1982 S.B., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1975 EMPLOYMENT Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. 2006-2007, 2011-present Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council. Washington, DC. 2008-2010 President, Harvard University. Cambridge, MA. 2001-2006 Arthur Okun Distinguished Fellow in Economics, Globalization, and Governance, The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC. 2001 Secretary of the Treasury, United States Department of the Treasury. Washington, DC. 1999-2001 Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Department of the Treasury. Washington, DC. 1995-1999 Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, Department of the Treasury. Washington, DC. 1993-1995 Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist, World Bank. Washington, DC. 1991-1993 Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University. Cambridge, MA. 1987-1991. Professor of Economics, Harvard University. Cambridge, MA. 1983-1987 Domestic Policy Economist, President’s Council of Economic Advisers, Washington DC 1982-83 Associate Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Cambridge, MA. 1982. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Cambridge, MA 1979-1982 Associate Head Tutor, Department of
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Stanley Fischer Trevor Manuel Biographies
Biographies Stanley Fischer Stanley Fischer has been Governor of the Bank of Israel since May 2005. For more than three years before that, he was Vice-Chairman of Citigroup. Mr. Fischer was the First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF from September 1994 through August 2001. Before he joined the IMF, he was Professor of Economics at MIT. He was Chief Econo- mist at the World Bank during 1988–90. Trevor Manuel Trevor Manuel has been South Africa’s Minister of Finance since 1996. Before becoming Finance Minister, he was for two years South Africa’s Minister of Trade and Industry. He served as Chairman of the Development Committee (the Joint Ministerial Committee of the Boards of Governors of the Bank and the Fund on the Transfer of Real Resources to Developing Countries) from November 2001 to September 2005. 28 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution BIOGRAPHIES 29 Jean Pisani-Ferry Jean Pisani-Ferry has been Director of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel since 2005. He is also a Professor of Economics at the University of Paris–Dauphine and a member of the French Prime Minister’s Council of Economic Analysis. From 1992 to 1997 he was the director of the Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales (CEPII, the French Research Center in International Economics). Raghuram Rajan Raghuram Rajan has been Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business since 1995, although he took a leave of absence during 2003–06 to be Economic Counsel- lor and Director of the Research Department at the IMF.
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On Falling Neutral Real Rates, Fiscal Policy, and the Risk of Secular Stagnation
BPEA Conference Drafts, March 7–8, 2019 On Falling Neutral Real Rates, Fiscal Policy, and the Risk of Secular Stagnation Łukasz Rachel, LSE and Bank of England Lawrence H. Summers, Harvard University Conflict of Interest Disclosure: Lukasz Rachel is a senior economist at the Bank of England and a PhD candidate at the London School of Economics. Lawrence Summers is the Charles W. Eliot Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University. Beyond these affiliations, the authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this paper or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this paper. They are currently not officers, directors, or board members of any organization with an interest in this paper. No outside party had the right to review this paper before circulation. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England, the London School of Economics, or Harvard University. On falling neutral real rates, fiscal policy, and the risk of secular stagnation∗ Łukasz Rachel Lawrence H. Summers LSE and Bank of England Harvard March 4, 2019 Abstract This paper demonstrates that neutral real interest rates would have declined by far more than what has been observed in the industrial world and would in all likelihood be significantly negative but for offsetting fiscal policies over the last generation. We start by arguing that neutral real interest rates are best estimated for the block of all industrial economies given capital mobility between them and relatively limited fluctuations in their collective current account.
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Growth After the Storm? a Longer-Run Perspective
Growth after the Storm? A Longer-Run Perspective KEMAL DERVI§ A year ago this time, in early October of 2008, the world was on the edge of a financial and economic abyss. Those very close to the events in the financial sector were terrified. The world at large had not yet fully comprehended the magnitude of the di- saster. The October 2008 World Economic Outlook had predicted that global GDP growth would have attained 2.7 percent in 2008 and would be 1.9 percent in 2009. Compare that to the 2.1 percent realized in 2008 and the most recent projection of -2.3 percent for 2009- Projections have been revised upward over the last few weeks, but the loss of output in 2009 will still be much greater than what was projected a year ago. The real point, however, is that it could have been much worse. What happened on Wall Street in September of 2008 was the financial equivalent of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. We came very close to a complete meltdown . as the world had come very close to nuclear war in 1962. But the meltdown did not take place—a very vigorous policy response in the major economies and concerted action by the major central banks forestalled a much worse disaster.1 The topic today, however, is not the past but the future. Will the world return to the kind of growth we had in the 2002-07 rrhere is currently an attempt in the United States, which appears largely politically driven, to argue that the fiscal stimulus was ineffective.
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Stanley Fischer: Game of Chairs Thursday, December 12, 2013 Donald Luskin
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Lorcan Roche Kelly, Europe Research Affiliate FED SHADOW Stanley Fischer: Game of Chairs Thursday, December 12, 2013 Donald Luskin Is this brilliant man supposed to play Dick Cheney to Janet Yellen's George W. Bush? Reports yesterday that "Obama has already offered the job" of Federal Update to Reserve vice chair to Stanley Fischer, "who accepted it," only reinforce our strategic view worries that the Fed under Janet Yellen will be a fiasco (see "Yellen and Screamin' at the Fed" December 5, 2013). And it reveals the utter US FED: Rumors that Fischer will be nominated incompetence and political cynicism with which the Obama administration for Fed vice chair are a has managed this critical succession. disquieting reminder of what a poor choice Yellen Fischer is eminently qualified. was for chair -- a choice made by Obama under He has the stellar academic credentials of Ben Bernanke (at MIT pressure and in a panic. he taught Mario Draghi, Larry Summers, and Bernanke who, He is so vastly better perhaps not by coincidence, heaped praise upon him in a speech qualified than Yellen both as a theorist, a politician last month as "a role model and a frequent adviser"). and a leader, his presence He has the political and business savvy of Alan Greenspan (he as vice chair will amplify held senior positions at the World Bank and the IMF, and was vice the risk that the FOMC will chair at Citibank). mutiny under what we feel certain will be Yellen's very And he is a proven leader (he was Governor of the Bank of Israel, poor leadership.
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