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Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: Local Factors in Nation-Building

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CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Security Research Division View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. O VERC This volume analyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to successful outcomes of nation-building interventions in conflict-affected O areas. Previous RAND studies of nation-building focused on external MING interveners’ activities. This volume shifts the focus to internal circumstances, first identifying the conditions that gave rise to conflicts O or threatened to perpetuate them, and then determining how external and local actors were able to modify or work around them to promote BSTACLES enduring peace. It examines in depth six varied societies: Cambodia, El Salvador, Bosnia and Herzegovina, East Timor, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It then analyzes a larger set of 20 major post–Cold War nation-building interventions. The authors T O assess the risk of renewed conflict at the onset of the interventions and P subsequent progress along five dimensions: security, democratization, EACE government effectiveness, economic growth, and human development. They find that transformation of many of the specific conditions that gave rise to or fueled conflict often is not feasible in the time frame of LOCA OVERCOMING nation-building operations but that such transformation has not proven essential to achieving the primary goal of nation-building—establishing L FACTORS IN FACTORS peace. Most interventions in the past 25 years have led to enduring OBSTACLES TO PEACE peace, as well as some degree of improvement in the other dimensions assessed. The findings suggest the importance of setting realistic expectations—neither expecting nation-building operations to quickly LOCAL FACTORS IN NATION-BUILDING lift countries out of poverty and create liberal democracies, nor being swayed by a negative stereotype of nation-building that does not N ATION-BUI recognize its signal achievements in the great majority of cases. L DING NATIONAL SECURITY D OBBINS RESEARCH DIVISION $32.95 RAND publications are available at ET www.rand.org AL . This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND AMES OBBINS AUREL ILLER monographs present major research R J D , L E. M , findings that address the challenges TEPHANIE EZArd HRISTOPHER HIVVIS facing the public and private sectors. S P , C S. C , All RAND monographs undergo rigorous JAMESJULIE D EOBBINS. TAYLO, RS,ETH KEITH G. CJONESRANE, peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. C O R P O R A T I O N CALINB TENRENKOVJAMIN -WRUNKLEERMUTH, S,Idd TEHAWORTHDA MJ MOHANENGISTUDAS RR-167-CC OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO PEACE LOCAL FACTORS IN NATION-BUILDING JAMES DOBBINS, LAUREL E. MIllER, STEPHANIE PEZARD, CHRISTOPHER S. CHIVVIS, JULIE E. TAYLOR, KEITH CRANE, CALIN TRENKOV-WERMUTH, TEWODAJ MENGISTU Sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION The research described in this report was prepared for the Carnegie Corporation of New York and was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Dobbins, James, 1942- Overcoming obstacles to peace : local factors in nation-building / James Dobbins, Laurel E. Miller, Stephanie Pezard, Christopher S. Chivvis, Julie E. Taylor, Keith Crane, Calin Trenkov-Wermuth, Tewodaj Mengistu. pages cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-7860-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Nation-building. 2. Nation-building--Case studies. 3. Peace-building. 4. Democratization. I. Title. JZ6300.D65 2013 327.1'72--dc23 2013000701 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover, top photo: Cambodian troops arrive to reinforce other troops engaged in fighting in Phnom Penh, 1974 (AP/Chor Yuthy). Bottom photo: Cambodian garment factory workers travel home from work in Kampong Chhnang province, north of Phnom Penh, 2009 (AP/Heng Sinith). © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2013 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Following on a series of RAND Corporation studies of nation-building interventions in conflict-affected areas undertaken by the United Nations, United States, European Union, and others, this volume ana- lyzes the impediments that local conditions pose to successful out- comes in these interventions. Previous RAND studies have focused on the activities of external interveners. This monograph shifts the per- spective from external actors to internal circumstances, first identify- ing the local circumstances that gave rise to conflicts or threatened to perpetuate them, and then determining how external actors and local leaders were able to modify or work around those circumstances to pro- mote an enduring peace. The book aims to provide policymakers with the means to judge with greater clarity how local circumstances are likely to affect their prospects for success and what sorts of outcomes might be realistically achievable. This research was sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Divi- sion (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments .......................................................... xxxvii Abbreviations ................................................................. xxxix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Which Local Factors Pose Challenges to Nation-Building? .............11 Factors That Raise the Risk of Conflict Renewal .............................12 Civil War Onset .................................................................12 Civil War Recurrence ......................................................... 20 How Great Is the Risk of Recurrence? ...................................... 24 Structure of the Case Studies ....................................................25 Tailoring Nation-Building to Local Factors .................................. 26 CHAPTER THREE Cambodia .........................................................................29 Local Factors Before the
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