ENERGY ADVISOR a WEEKLY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE November 17, 2017

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR ENERGY ADVISOR A WEEKLY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org November 17, 2017

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TOP NEWS Nigel Blackaby Global Head, OIL & GAS International Arbitration Group, Freshfi elds Bruckhaus Deringer Are the Oil Sands Russia Off ers Mary Rose Brusewitz Venezuela Another Partner, Strasburger & Price Doomed to Fail or Debt Lifeline Jeffrey Davidow Russia’s offer to restructure $3.15 Senior Counselor, billion in sovereign debt does not The Cohen Group Poised to Prosper? cover some $6 billion in debt that Ramón Espinasa Venezuela’s state oil company still Consultant, owes the country, however. Inter-American Development Bank Page 3 Luis Giusti Senior Advisor, Center for Strategic & RENEWABLES International Studies Jonathan C. Hamilton Four Countries in Partner, the Americas Join White & Case Group Against Raul Herrera Partner, Using Coal Corporate & Securities Practice, Arnold & Porter Canada, Costa Rica, El Salvador The oil at Cenovus Energy’s Christina Lake complex is located more than 1,200 feet under- and Mexico joined 15 other na- James R. Jones ground, requiring specialized technology to drill and pump it to the surface. // File Photo: Chairman, Cenovus. tions from elsewhere in the world Monarch Global Strategies that this week made a commit- Jorge Kamine Canadian oil companies Cenovus and Canadian Natural ment to quickly phase out using Counsel, Resources beat market expectations in the third quarter, coal as a source of electricity. Skadden Arps Page 2 reporting higher output and lower costs at their oil sands Craig A. Kelly Q Director, projects in Alberta. However, some analysts have predicted OIL & GAS Americas Int’l Gov’t Relations, smaller Canadian oil sands projects ahead, with lower production growth Exxon Mobil in the coming years amid relatively high production costs in a recovering Brazil’s Petrobras Jeremy Martin Vice President, Energy & Sustainability, oil-price environment. What is the future of the Canadian oil sands? Reports Weaker Institute of the Americas What are the biggest trends shaping the industry there? Are Canada’s oil Q3 Results Larry Pascal Petrobras CEO Pedro Parente de- Chairman, sands a smart investment? Americas Practice Group, fended the company’s prospects Haynes & Boone to investors, saying Brazil’s low- Charles Shapiro Murray Smith, consultant and former minister of energy for cost oil in the offshore sub-salt President, Alberta: “As a matter of rule, when oil prices decline, foreign region will keep the company World Affairs Council of Atlanta competitive in a tough market. investment in Canada, and particularly Alberta, declines. R. Kirk Sherr Page 2 President, A When oil prices go up, the reverse generally occurs; Canadian Clearview Strategy Group companies, most recently Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus, have Mark Thurber bought out foreign interests for very reasonable prices. This will add to Partner, Andrews Kurth their already signifi cant footprint in the oil sands, which are assets that Alexandra Valderrama reward scale. In turn, to fi nance the acquisitions, companies will then Manager, International Government Affairs, spin off non-core assets. Smaller Canadian companies will purchase Chevron these assets, and because of their small size, will operate these assets Lisa Viscidi more effi ciently. Such was the case of a recent acquisition of a Husky Program Director, Inter-American Dialogue Energy asset, a major company, to a much smaller entity, Surge Energy. Max Yzaguirre This renewal process has been repeated numerous times, as commodity President and CEO, prices for oil and natural gas rise and fall. And fi nally, when prices rise The Yzaguirre Group and multinational reserves fall, Alberta once again becomes an attractive destination for oil and gas investments. The oil sands of Alberta remain Parente // File Photo: Petrobras. Continued on page 4

OIL & GAS SECTOR NEWS Free Trade Agreement? Yes, I think it does.” He NEWS BRIEFS added that concerns that the three countries U.S. Calls on Mexico, would not be able to reach an agreement Four Countries in the and that U.S. President Donald Trump might Americas Join Group Canada to Develop withdraw from the agreement entirely were “far-fetched.” “We not only will have a good Against Using Coal Regional Energy agreement, it’ll be a fair agreement, and the Canada, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Mexico private sector can know there will be contract joined 15 other nations from elsewhere in the U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry on Tuesday in hand so when they come to invest in Mexico world that this week made a commitment to urged U.S. ofﬁ cials and their Mexican and Ca- or Canada or the United States, there will be a quickly phase out coal, the Guardian reported. nadian counterparts to collaborate in order to good framework in place in which they can do The Powering Past Coal Alliance was launched develop North American energy resources and business,” he said. at a United Nations climate summit in Bonn, remove regulatory roadblocks to creating more Germany. The fossil fuel currently provides 40 cross-border energy infrastructure projects, the Brazil’s Petrobras percent of global electricity. In Latin America, Houston Chronicle reported. Speaking along- Colombia is a major coal producer and export- Reports Weaker er. New coal-ﬁ red power projects being planned in seven countries in the region will add an Third Quarter additional 8,427 MW of capacity.

Shares of Brazilian national oil company Petrobras fell as much as 7.8 percent this Trinidad AG Cautions week following the release of disappointing third-quarter earnings on Monday, Reuters Guyana on Corruption reported. Tighter margins and weaker domestic Trinidad and Tobago’s attorney general, Faris Perry // File Photo: U.S. Government. demand fueled a drop in sales volumes, the Al Rawi, on Wednesday advised that Guyana company said. Petrobras CEO Pedro Parente should guard against opportunists who may side Canadian Minister of Natural Resources defended the company’s long-term prospects want to launder dirty money in a growing oil Jim Carr and Mexican Energy Secretary to investors, however. In an interview on and gas sector, Trinidad Express reported. Joaquín Coldwell at a news conference at the CNBC, Parente said Brazil’s low-cost oil in the “What you may have [is] people that see sales University of Houston, Perry said mutual col- offshore sub-salt region will keep the company on an exponential basis from persons who did laboration will enhance the physical and cyber competitive in a tough market. “We count on not check for abuse of funds so you see abuse safety of the energy systems that connect the the pre-salt production because the level of of trust or laundering proceeds of money, three countries. “Canada and Mexico are the masking it as investment in some fringe indus- largest energy trading partners of the United try associated with oil and gas,” he said. States,” Perry said. “And the energy security of our three countries is achievable because of We are talking about mutual cooperation.” Perry’s calls for collab- extraction costs below Mexico’s Congress Raises oration come as trade negotiators enter their $7 per barrel.” fi fth round of talks to restructure the North — Pedro Parente Oil Price Expectations American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, Mexico’s Congress on Nov. 10 gave the fi nal this week in Mexico City. When asked whether approval for next year’s federal budget, which the renegotiation of NAFTA would affect ener- raises the assumed oil price and exchange rate gy relations among the three countries, Perry in order to help increase funding for recon- said the negotiation was a “good process; it’s a productivity of the fi elds is very high, so the struction after two earthquakes rocked the healthy process.” “Fifteen years ago, they told cost to extract oil from the pre-salt is very country, Reuters reported. Authorized spending us we found all the oil and gas there was to low,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on is for $276.98 billion, or 5.28 trillion pesos, fi nd and that the days of being able to develop Wednesday. “So we are talking about extraction up 43.29 billion pesos from the original draft. oil and gas were over with,” Perry said. “Well, costs below $7 per barrel.” International oil Lawmakers raised the projected exchange that’s not the case. So does it make sense to companies such as BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, Sta- rate from 18.1 pesos per dollar to 18.4, and sit down with our colleagues in Canada and toil and Total have been investing in blocks in they raised oil price assumptions from $46 to Mexico to renegotiate a new North America the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Brazil as the $48.50 per barrel.

COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR November 17, 2017 country enacts terms more favorable to foreign investment. Petrobras said it expects to receive $7 billion from divestments this year, excluding VENEZUELA WATCH a planned initial public offering for fuel distri- bution unit BR Distribuidora, a fi gure below the $8 billion it previously forecast. Also this week, Parente said he will meet later this month with Russia Off ers Venezuela a Lifeline the CEO of China National Petroleum Corp. in Russia on Wednesday restructured $3.15 billion in debt it is owed by Venezuela, giving its Brazil to discuss the details of their partnership economically wrecked ally badly needed breathing room as it struggles with a massive $120 to build a refi nery complex in Rio de Janeiro, billion debt load, The Wall Street Journal reported. The debt will now be repaid over 10 years, Reuters reported. with minimal repayments during the fi rst six years. “Reducing the debt burden to the republic from the restructuring of liabilities will allow the funds that have been freed up to be allocated to the country’s economic development, to improve the liquidity of the debtor, and to increase ELECTRICITY NEWS the chances of all creditors to recoup credits provided to Venezuela,” the Russian fi nance ministry said in a statement. Venezuelan offi cials said the agreement would allow them to FMC, Rio Tinto increase imports from Russia, including of wheat. The restructuring deal announced Wednes- day doesn’t cover $6 billion in debt that Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA, still owes to Focus on Latin Russia, according to the report. China on Thursday made no offer of debt relief to Venezuela, America Lithium but said it was confi dent the country can deal with the problem, the Associated Press reported. Venezuela owes China nearly more than seven times as much as Russia, with $23 billion in debt. “We believe that the Venezuelan government and people are capable of properly handling Philadelphia-based chemicals manufactur- the debt issue,” ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said. er FMC Corp said last week that it plans to invest $300 million in its lithium operations in Argentina in order to double production S&P Declares ‘Selective’ Sovereign Default there, Reuters reported. The price of lithium has skyrocketed in recent years in pace S&P Global Ratings on Monday declared Venezuela in selective default following the South with increased demand for the mineral amid American country’s failure to make payments on bonds following the expiration of a 30-day projected wider use of electric vehicles. For grace period, Reuters reported. Venezuela’s government failed to make $200 million in coupon FMC, the investment in Catamarca province will payments for global bonds due in 2019 and 2024 by Sunday’s expiration of the grace period, double its production to 40,000 metric tons per S&P said in a statement. The ratings agency added that it had lowered Venezuela’s long-term year in the next two years, pending approval by foreign currency rating to “SD” and also lowered its long- and short-term foreign currency sov- the province’s legislature, Catamarca province ereign credit ratings for the country to “SD/D” from “CC/C.” Venezuela’s state-run oil company Governor Lucia Corpacci said. In related news, PDVSA has also been declared in default by rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s, BBC News global mining company Rio Tinto is said to be reported. eyeing a $5 billion stake in lithium producer Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, or SQM. Rio Tinto is reportedly close to purchasing a 32 Bondholders Criticize Debt Restructuring percent stake in SQM, the Australian Financial Review reported, citing Chilean publication Private-sector creditors were invited to meet Monday with a restructuring committee led by El Mostrador. Company offi cials have been Venezuela’s vice president, Tareck El Aissami. Investors who attended the meeting at the “tight-lipped” on the potential deal, industry presidential palace said they heard a half-hour speech from El Aissami, whom Maduro has trade publications reported earlier this week. put in charge of negotiations on restructuring the debt, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Canada’s PotashCorp must sell its interest in speech by El Aissami, who has been blacklisted by the United States for his alleged role in SQM within 18 months of merging with Agrium, drug traffi cking, focused on Venezuela’s efforts to continue making its debt payments. After setting up fi erce competition for the asset, his talk concluded, investors at the meeting were given boxes of chocolates and escorted out Mining.com reported. Chinese chemicals and of the building, the newspaper reported, citing two people who attended the meeting. “They fertilizer company Sinochem has also report- didn’t even allow questions,” said one of the investors. “They gave no details on their plans and edly been in talks to purchase a stake of SQM, no future meeting dates.” Maduro’s government on Monday night called the meeting “highly which produced some 44 million metric tons of promising” and said it was the beginning of the process of refi nancing Venezuela’s debt. lithium carbonate last year and is developing

COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 3 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR November 17, 2017 more projects in Chile and Australia. In addition FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 to Argentina and Chile, Bolivia holds among the highest lithium reserves in the world. a smart investment, as the question poses. who, despite signifi cant investments in Exploration costs remain a small factor, Alberta’s oil sands, have recently divested labor productivity has improved, construc- their assets in the region. The oil majors POLITICAL NEWS tion costs are more in line and operating who have either sold their assets in Alberta costs are at their lowest in history. For those or divested from major portions of their oil companies with long-term sunk capital, the sands operations include Statoil, Marathon Peru’s Kuczynski future is bright, as they add scale and timing Oil, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Total and Exxon- Denies Consulting of expansion to their portfolio. The major Mobil. This exodus from the tar sands totals impediment remains access to market via $24 billion in investments being offl oaded for Odebrecht low-cost pipelines. Trans-mountain pipeline over a fi ve-month period. Persistent low oil expansion and Keystone XL expansion will prices have forced Canadian producers to Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski help diminish the spread between oil sands undertake major cost-cutting efforts that in a televised address Wednesday reiterated oil and WTI. Oil shipments by rail will grow have increased the effi ciency of existing his denial of allegations that he was previ- as well, in the short run. The oil sands of operations, but drastically scaled back pro- ously a consultant for Brazilian construction Alberta remain a very viable investment, duction expansions that had been projected company Odebrecht, which is enmeshed in a particularly as new technologies continue to as recently as 2014. In addition, recent massive multi-country bribery scandal, Reuters drive down the carbon emissions footprint analysis of capital expenditures in the oil reported. “I did not receive any support from and the cost of production.” sands suggests that there is limited interest that company in either of my two electoral from producers in spending on projects that campaigns,” said Kuczynski. “It is fundamen- Anthony Swift, director of the would bring on new production beyond the tal that we all fi ght against corruption, and I Natural Resources Defense 2020 timeframe. The international commu- am committed to that fi ght.” The president’s Council’s Canada Program: “The nity’s efforts to limit warming to below two remarks came a day after local newspaper A imperative of addressing climate degrees Celsius will only further undermine El Comercio reported that Odebrecht hired change is driving a dramatic transformation the profi tability of investments in Alberta’s Kuczynski a decade ago, before he took offi ce of the global economy that has existential tar sands, as countries hasten the transition as president. The newspaper reported that implications for the future of high-carbon to electric vehicles, ban internal combustion Marcelo Odebrecht, the construction fi rm’s fossil fuels sources like Alberta’s tar sands. engines and take other measures that would One of the clearest signs of this shift has dampen, if not reverse, the demand trend come in the form of divestment by many required to support the economic case for I did not receive any of the largest multi-national oil producers new tar sands projects.” support from that com- Continued on page 6 pany in either of my two agreed to pay a combined $3.5 billion in fi nes FARC and President Juan Manuel Santos’ gov- electoral campaigns.” to settle charges in the United States, Brazil ernment agreed upon in the peace accord they — Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Switzerland in connection with the scheme signed a year ago, ending the country’s more to pay $788 million in bribes to offi cials in 12 than fi ve-decade armed confl ict. The transition- countries, mainly in Latin America. al justice measures still must win approval in jailed former chief executive offi cer, told Bra- the lower house of Colombia’s Congress before zilian prosecutors that his company had hired they can take effect. The lower chamber is Kuczynski after he served in former President Colombian Senate expected to vote on the legislation next week. Alejandro Toledo’s cabinet, and he added that Approves Tribunals The special courts created in the system will the company may have funded Kuczynski’s mete out sentences such as landmine removal failed 2011 campaign for president. Via Twitter, to Try Former Rebels for former guerrillas who are convicted of Kuczynski had earlier denied any professional war crimes. The peace accords between the links with Odebrecht and denied receiving Colombia’s Senate on Wednesday approved government and the FARC spare rebels who any campaign donations from the company. the creation of special tribunals to try former are convicted from serving their sentences A year ago, the Brazilian company acknowl- members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces in traditional prisons. The transitional justice edged in a plea deal with U.S. prosecutors of Colombia, or FARC, for war crimes, Reuters system can also apply to members of the that it paid Peruvian offi cials $29 million as reported. The tribunals were approved as part military as well as civilians who gave funding part of a multi-country bribery scheme. It and of a system of transitional justice that the to illegal armed groups, such as paramilitaries. affi liated petrochemical company Braskem

NEWS BRIEFS Colombia’s Congress has until the end of this pension reform proposal that would raise the month to approve the measures in a fast-track retirement age and extend the contribution Former Argentine Soccer system that is intended to reduce the number period required in order for workers to receive Offi cial Commits Suicide of debates involved in the legislation’s passage their full pensions. in an effort to implement the peace accords as Following Bribe Allegation soon as possible. Mexico to ‘Soften’ Jorge Delhon, a former Argentine soccer offi - cial who was accused Tuesday in a U.S. court Eff ects of Fuel Price of taking bribes, committed suicide by throw- ECONOMIC NEWS ing himself under a train in a Buenos Aires Hikes on Consumers suburb, La Nación reported. Sports marketing Thousands of executive Alejandro Burzaco testifi ed that he Mexico’s fi nance ministry is looking at ways to paid Delhon and another Argentine offi cial Brazilians Protest “soften” the price impact of gasoline market bribes in exchange for soccer broadcast rights liberalization next year, Reuters reported between 2011 and 2014. Austerity Measures Tuesday. Energy Minister Pedro Joaquin Coldwell said some independent fuel importers Thousands of Brazilians took to the streets in recently have complained about a lack of tax Mexico Proposing protest last weekend against President Michel adjustments to refl ect the at least 15 percent Temer and his government’s proposed austerity increase in recent weeks in international prices Alternative to NAFTA measures, including a widely unpopular pen- of gasoline and diesel, the two main refi ned ‘Sunset Clause’ sion reform that the government sees as key products imported by Mexico. A tax mecha- to closing the budget defi cit, Reuters reported. nism will be designed to protect the Mexican Mexican negotiators on Wednesday said they Protests took place in cities throughout the consumer “from abrupt increase in prices,” he will propose that the North American Free country, including Rio de Janeiro and Brasília. said without elaborating on the changes. “Be- Trade Agreement be “rigorously reviewed” Protesters were also demonstrating against fore we had only one brand for retail gasoline every fi ve years rather than the U.S. demand a wave of privatizations that the government stations. Now we have 30,” Coldwell added. for a “sunset clause,” essentially an automatic Consumer prices overall rose by 0.63 percent expiration, Reuters reported. Offi cials are in the in October, pushed higher by higher gasoline fi fth round of talks between the United States, prices and a seasonal end-of-summer increase Canada and Mexico to update the pact. For in electricity tariffs, Goldman Sachs told clients the fi rst time since the talks started earlier this in a research note last week. year, the trade ministers this week decided not to participate directly in the NAFTA meet- ings “so negotiators can continue to make Jamaica Tourist important progress on key chapters,” the three governments said. Arrivals Top 4 Million Temer // File Photo: Brazilian Government. Jamaica’s tourism minister, Edmund Bartlett, is had recently announced. “We must prevent the expecting tourist arrivals to reach four million Brazilian Amazon destruction of our country, the loss of social this year as earnings from the sector top $3 gains and the threats against democracy,” said Deforestation Rate Falls billion, the Jamaica Gleaner reported Thurs- Telma de Barros, a teacher protesting in São Brazilian representatives at the global climate day. Bartlett said the island continues to have Paulo. Though there have been other protests talks in Germany this week said the deforesta- record-breaking arrivals, welcoming 3.3 million against the government’s austerity measures tion rate in its Amazon conservation areas visitors during the fi rst nine months of the year, in recent months, the demonstrations last fell by 28 percent over the past year, to its a 9.5 percent increase as compared to the Friday had the highest turnout by far. One law second-lowest level in decades, the Associat- same period last year. Gross foreign exchange Brazilians were protesting was a new labor law ed Press reported Tuesday. Brazil said satellite earnings for the fi rst 10 months of the year was that had been approved by the Senate in July data shows 159 square kilometers (61 square $2.34 billion, which is a 10.8 percent increase and which went into effect on Saturday that will miles) of deforestation in the rainforest over over the corresponding period in 2016. An allow for more fl exible contracts, gets rid of the 12 months ending in July of this year, down unusually damaging hurricane season else- mandatory union dues and makes unions liable from a 221 square-kilometer loss of forested where in the Caribbean has not hurt Jamaica’s for the legal costs of losing court challenges. land in the Amazon during the previous year. tourism sector, according to the report. Protesters were also demonstrating against a

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 4 LATIN AMERICA ENERGY ADVISOR is published weekly by the Inter-American Dialogue Copyright © 2017 Chris Cote, energy market Remi Piet, senior director analyst at ESAI Energy: “Indeed, at Americas Market Intelli- Erik Brand some Canadian oil producers gence: “Recent results from Publisher [email protected] A had a strong third quarter. The A Cenovus and Canadian Natural price of oil rose, new projects came online, Resources should not hide the structural Gene Kuleta Editor and acquisitions helped reduce costs. evolution of energy markets as Canadian [email protected] Next year is likely to be a strong year for energy companies already struggle to see Nicole Wasson Canadian producers as well, with crude the forest for the trees. Most of them have Reporter, Assistant Editor production rising by 250,000 barrels per day been fairly conservative in their investment [email protected] as companies fi nish expansion phases and strategy, adopting the short-term argument the new Fort Hills mine ramps up output. But that production cost reduction would help things will be different in 2019. Production them maintain some of their margins until will continue to grow, at around 120,000 a return of high market energy prices. To Michael Shifter, President barrels per day, as incremental additions are a large extent, Canadian companies have Genaro Arriagada, Nonresident Senior Fellow made to projects already underway, but Fort contented themselves with a risk-averse ‘if Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow Hills will remain the last mega-project for it is not broken don’t fi x it’ approach that will Joan Caivano, Director, Special Projects the next several years. New mining projects hurt them in the near future as they failed Michael Camilleri, Director, Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program in the Canadian oil sands need the price of to diversify their operations. Among major Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow energy companies in Alberta, very few have Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program taken the proactive approach of investing in Alejandro Ganimian, Nonresident Fellow emerging markets and positioning them- U.S. demand for the Peter Hakim, President Emeritus selves in the capacity to benefi t from the heavy crude of the Claudio Loser, Senior Fellow pockets of economic growth they will direly oil sands is largely Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow need when the output of Canadian oil sands satisfi ed.” Margaret Myers, Director, China and projects decrease. Oil prices will continue Latin America Program — Chris Cote to stagnate because of geopolitical and Manuel Orozco, Director, Migration global competition logics and calculations. Remittances & Development The current restructuration of the Canadian Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow WTI crude to be around $70 per barrel. New oil sands corporate landscape should be Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program SAGD (steam-assisted gravity drainage) an opportunity to get off a beaten path Denisse Yanovich, Director, Development and projects require about $60 WTI. Today WTI that promises only diminishing returns and External Relations is at about $57, where it is likely to remain, instead identify key international investment barring some major event. At the same time, opportunities south of the border. Recent Latin America Energy Advisor is published U.S. demand for the heavy crude of the discoveries in Mexico, Guyana, Suriname weekly, with the exception of some major U.S. holidays, by the Inter-American Dialogue oil sands is largely satisfi ed. There is one and Colombia represent key opportunities 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 scenario on the horizon that could change for an industry in need of diversifi cation. Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202-822-9002 this outlook. A major disruption to Venezu- Local political and economic risks need www.thedialogue.org elan production, which is already in steady to be acknowledged, but can be easily ISSN 2163-7962 decline, would send U.S. Gulf Coast refi ners mitigated. It is high time for the Canadian oil Subscription Inquiries are welcomed at looking for some 75,000 barrels per day of sands companies to export their know-how [email protected] extra-heavy crude. Canada, which currently and bank on their technological expertise by The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of sends some 50,000 barrels per day, is one developing the sources of their future growth Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily possible source, while production turn- as the return from the Canadian oil sands represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole view of each commentator and does not necessarily arounds in Mexico and Ecuador are still a will continue dwindling.” represent the views of their respective employers or year or two off. This potential new demand, fi rms. The information in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and and the possibility of Keystone XL going The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are forward, could be the boost some smaller section. Readers can contact editor Gene guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, contact the editorial offi ces projects need to get the green light.” Kuleta at [email protected]. of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.