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Home , John Kasich

A M o n t h l y P o l l C o mp i l a t i o n Volume 12, Issue 5 • May 2016

IN THIS ISSUE: Favorability (Pages 1–4) | Fence Along the Border? (Pages 5–6) Water Safety (Pages 7–8)

Comparing Candidates’ Favorability Ratings Of the five presidential candidates left in the race, only two— and —generally have more favor- able than unfavorable ratings. The polls below, taken from late February and early March through mid-April, show strong consistency in responses about the parties’ frontrunners. and have the most unfavorable ratings, though unfavorable opinion of does not trail far behind.

——Ted Cruz—— —John Kasich— —Donald Trump— Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. ABC/WP (April) 36% 53% 39% 39% 31% 67% CBS (RV) 22 48 26 21 25 63 YouGov/Economist* 34 55 35 42 34 63 AP-GfK* 26 59 34 31 26 69 PRRI/The Atlantic 29 57 -- -- 24 70 Fox (RV) 36 53 40 33 31 65 Quinnipiac (RV) 32 47 43 20 33 61 CNN/ORC 34 54 40 31 31 67 Monmouth (RV) 37 43 50 18 30 60 Gallup (Feb.–Mar.) 29 50 -- -- 30 63

—Hillary Clinton— —Bernie Sanders— Fav. Unfav. Fav. Unfav. Note: In the April 2016 NBC /Wall Street Journal survey, which asks a differ- CBS (RV) (April) 31% 54% 39% 34% ent question, 65 percent of registered YouGov/Economist* 41 56 51 43 voters viewed Donald Trump negatively, AP-GfK* 40 55 48 39 with 53 percent very negatively. Hillary Clinton’s negative rating rose to 56 per- PRRI 40 54 47 41 cent among registered voters, with 42 Fox (RV) 39 58 44 49 percent rating her very negatively. (RV) Quinnipiac (RV) 39 56 50 37 indicates the question was asked of registered voters. *Online panel survey. CNN/ORC 43 56 48 43 “Undecided,” “Haven’t heard enough,” Monmouth (RV) 40 51 48 37 and “Don’t know” responses not shown. Source: The most recent surveys avail- ABC/WP 46 52 -- -- able from March 2016 and April 2016. Gallup (Feb.–Mar.) 41 53 -- -- (Continued on the next page)

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org Candidate Favorability in April Polls from Past Election Years

At this point during the 2008 and 2000 election years, a majority of voters expressed favorable views of and George W. Bush. In their April 2016 survey, ABC News/Washington Post pollsters noted that Hillary Clinton is the only Democratic presidential candidate in modern history to have an unfavorable rating higher than 50 percent in their election-year polls.

April polls Favorable Unfavorable 2012 Barack Obama 42% 45% Mitt Romney 29 34

2008 Barack Obama 57% 36% Hillary Clinton 49 47 John McCain 52 42

2004 John Kerry 27% 33% George W. Bush 38 43

2000 45% 42% George W. Bush 53 34

1996 50% 38% 36 36

1992 Bill Clinton 26% 40% George H. W. Bush 35 44

Note: Asked of registered voters. “Undecided” and “Haven’t heard enough” responses not shown. Source: CBS News/New York Times, April 1992; CBS News/New York Times, March–April 1996; , April 2000; CBS News/New York Times, April 2004; Princeton Survey Research Associates International/Newsweek, April 2008; CBS News/New York Times, April 2012.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Editors: Heather Sims, Eleanor O’Neil. Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Design: Claude Aubert. , Resident Fellow.

The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s].

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Another way of examining views of candidates is to look at net favorability, as we do here. Donald Trump’s net rating has been consistently negative, and Ted Cruz’s has declined in recent months. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders’ net favora- bility look like mirror images of one another, with his consistently positive and hers consistently negative. Q: Is your opinion of ______favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about him/her?

30 Net Favorability of Republican Candidates (In percentage points) 23 20 John Kasich 10 3 0

–10 –5 Ted Cruz –20 –15

–30 Donald Trump –28 –32 –40 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctNov DecJan FebMar 2015 2016

30 Net Favorability of Democratic Candidates (In percentage points) 20 13 Bernie Sanders 10 1 0 –1 –10

–20 Hillary Clinton –17

–30

–40 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctNov DecJan FebMar 2015 2016

Note: Asked of registered voters. The responses above begin with the first survey following each candidate’s entrance into the 2016 presidential race. Source: Quinnipiac University, latest that of March 2016. (Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 Men and Women Rate the Candidates As the graph below shows, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have serious problems in their ratings among the opposite sex. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation polls show that Ted Cruz’s unfavorable rating among women has increased sig- nificantly since January, with his most recent unfavorable rating among women nearly the same as Clinton’s among men. Republican women give higher favorable ratings to Trump and Cruz, though they are still lower than Republican men’s ratings. Even though many Republicans still say they don’t know enough about John Kasich to give an opinion of him, fewer Republican women rate him unfavorably than rate Trump or Cruz unfavorably. Democratic men and women give Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders comparable favorable ratings. Q: We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favor- able or unfavorable opinion of these people—or if you have never heard of them.

100 Unfavorable views of . . . 90 80 Donald Trump among women 74% 70 62% 58% 60 61% 50 58% Hillary Clinton among men 40 30 Ted Cruz among women 20 28% 10 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2015 2016

March 2016 Favorable Unfavorable ———————————Responses of Republican registered voters——————————— Ted Cruz Men 63% 32% Women 56 37 John Kasich Men 50% 29% Women 47 26 Donald Trump Men 66% 30% Women 59 39 ———————————Responses of Democratic registered voters——————————— Hillary Clinton Men 70% 28% Women 75 23 Bernie Sanders Men 70% 24% Women 71 20

Note: In an April 2016 CBS News poll, 69 percent of women voters had an unfavorable view of Donald Trump, 48 percent of Ted Cruz, and 20 percent of John Kasich, although more than half still say they don’t know enough about him to respond. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of March 2016.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 A Fence or a (Trump) Wall Along the Border? Immigration reform and border security have been prominent and divisive topics thus far in the 2016 election. One of many divisions is over whether to finish building a fence or wall along the US-Mexico border. In 1993, 29 percent of people surveyed by Time/CNN favored building a fence along the entire border between the United States and Mexico. Pew’s more recent questions showed support for building a fence at 46 percent from 2007 through 2015, then dropping to 38 percent this year. CNN’s polling showed majority support in four polls between 2007 and 2015, with opposition rising slightly. Partisans are divided, with a majority of Republicans in favor of building a fence and a majority of Democrats opposed. In the 2016 primary exit poll, 67 percent of Republican voters supported building a wall along the entire US border with Mexico. Q: Here are some proposals concerning . Please tell me whether you favor or oppose each one . . . . —Build a fence along the entire border between the United States and Mexico— Favor Oppose Sep. 1993 29% 68%

Source: Time/CNN/Yankelovich, September 1993.

Q: Please tell me whether you would generally favor or oppose each of the following steps which have been proposed as a way of reducing illegal immigration into the United States? —————————Erecting a wall along the border with Mexico————————— Favor Oppose Jul. 1993 27% 71% Jul. 1995 35 62 May 2006* 42 56

Note: *Question wording read “Do you favor or oppose each of the following proposals as a way to reduce illegal immigration to the United States? Building a wall along the border with Mexico.” Source: The Gallup Organization/CNN/USA Today, Jul. 1993–Jul. 1995; Gallup/USA Today, May 2006.

Q: All in all, would you favor or oppose . . . ? ———————Building a fence along the entire border with Mexico——————— Favor Oppose Sep.–Oct. 2006* (CNN/ORC) 54% 44% Jan. 2007* (Pew) 46 48 Jun. 2008* (CNN/ORC) 52 47 Sep.–Oct. 2011 (Pew) 46 47 Nov. 2011* (CNN/ORC) 53 45 Sep. 2015 (Pew) 46 48 Sep. 2015 (CNN/ORC) 52 47 Mar. 2016 (Pew) 38 58

————————Building a wall along the entire border with Mexico———————— March, 2016 Favor Oppose National adult 34% 62% Registered voters 38% 59% Democrats/Leaners 13 86 Republicans/Leaners 67 31

Note: *Question wording read, “. . . building a fence along 700 miles of the border with Mexico.” Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of September 2015, and Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2016. (Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 5 Cost and Effectiveness Americans are less likely to support building a fence and other border security proposals when costs or opposition argu- ments are mentioned. In an April 2006 CBS News survey, 48 percent favored “building a 700-mile-long security fence along the US-Mexico border to try to stop illegal immigration.” In a May 2006 survey that mentioned some people oppose the fence “because they say it would cost too much money and people would still find a way to get around it,” only 29 per- cent favored building the fence. A July 2013 ABC News/Washington Post survey found that support for a proposal to add border agents and fencing was 11 points lower among respondents who were told that it would cost $46 million. A majority (55 percent) in a YouGov online survey opposed building a fence on the border with Canada. Q: Would you favor or oppose . . . ? ——————Building a 700-mile-long security fence along the US-Mexico border—————— to try to stop illegal immigration Favor Oppose Apr. 2006 48% 48%

Source: CBS News, April 2006.

Q: Some people favor building a 700-mile-long fence along the US-Mexico border because they say it would stop illegal immigrants from crossing the border into the US. Other people oppose the 700-mile-long fence because they say it would cost too much money and people would still find a way to get around it. What do you think, do you favor or oppose . . . ? ——————Building a 700-mile-long security fence along the US-Mexico border—————— Favor Oppose, would cost too much/wouldn’t work May 2006 29% 66%

Source: CBS News/New York Times, May 2006.

Q: Overall, do you support or oppose . . . ? ——A plan to increase US border security that includes adding 20,000 border agents—— and 700 miles of fence along the border with Mexico Support Oppose Jul. 2013 64% 32%

————————————————— . . . at a cost of $46 million————————————————— Support Oppose Jul. 2013 53% 45%

Note: Asked of a half sample. In a November 2013 Public Religion Research Institute question that described the same plan at a cost of 46 billion dollars, 49 percent said they supported it, while 45 percent opposed it. Source: ABC News/Washington Post, July 2013.

Q: Do you support or oppose . . . ? ————————————Building a fence on the border with Mexico———————————— Support Oppose Sep. 2015 64% 27% ————————————Building a fence on the border with Canada———————————— Support Oppose Sep. 2015 28% 55%

Note: Online panel survey. Source: YouGov, September 2015.

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 6 The Flint Water Crisis in Context Since Gallup began asking Americans how much they worry about various environmental issues, concerns about pollu- tion of drinking water and pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs have consistently topped the list. Sixty-one percent in March 2016 said they worried a great deal about the pollution of drinking water, up from 55 percent last year. The Flint water crisis ranked third among news stories Americans said they were following very or somewhat closely in the February and March Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking polls, with 63 percent in March saying they were closely following stories about unsafe levels of lead found in the drinking water in Flint. Fifty-six percent told AP-GfK pollsters they thought the tap water being contaminated in Flint is a sign of a more widespread problem, and 48 percent in a Huffington Post/YouGov survey said they were very or somewhat concerned that a situation similar to what occurred in Flint could cause tap water contamination in their area. People with lower incomes were more likely to say they were concerned about that possibility. Q: I’m going to 100 Personally worry a great deal about . . . read you a list of environmental 90 problems. As I read 80 Pollution of drinking water 72% each one, please tell 70 me if you personally 61% worry about this 60 65% problem a great 50 deal, a fair amount, 40 Pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs 56% only a little, or not at all. 30 20

Source: The Gallup 1 Organization, latest 201 that of March 2016. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Of the six environmental problems included in Gallup’s trend this year, pollution of drinking water and pollu- tion of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs consistently rank highest in terms of level of concern.

Q: Next, please tell me how closely you have followed these stories that have been in the news recently . . . . Percentage following very/somewhat closely Feb. 2016 Mar. 2016 2016 presidential campaigns 73% 81% Conflicts involving ISIS and other Islamic militant groups 73 72 Unsafe levels of lead found in the drinking water in Flint, Michigan 64 63 The FBI order requiring Apple to unlock the San Bernardino shooting suspect’s iPhone N/A 61 The death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia and vacancy on the Supreme Court N/A 59 The Zika virus outbreak 57 54 The health care law’s third open enrollment period 34 34

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, latest that of March 2016. (Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 7 (Continued from the previous page)

Q: From what you have heard or read, do you think . . . ? The lead level in Flint, Michigan’s water supply is . . . Mostly under control 10% Not under control 65

Note: Asked of the 82 percent of respondents who had heard about unsafe levels of lead found in the Flint, Michigan water supply. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, February 2016.

Q: Based on what you’ve heard, do you think . . . ? The tap water in Flint being contaminated with lead is . . . An isolated incident 42% A sign of a more widespread problem 56

Note: Online panel survey. Source: -GfK Knowledge Networks, February 2016.

Q: The city of Flint, Michigan has been undergoing a water crisis due to contamination from lead. How concerned are you . . . ? Very concerned that a situation Responses by family income similar to what occurred in Flint Under $50,000– $100,000 could cause tap water $50,000 $99,999 or more contamination in your area 17% 22% 17% 11% Somewhat concerned 31 36 28 22 Not very concerned 35 27 39 46 Not at all concerned 12 9 12 19

Note: Online panel survey. Source: Huffington Post/YouGov, March 2016.

Q: How concerned, if at all, are you about the safety of the water supply . . . ? Responses by family income Under $40,000– $90,000 $40,000 $89,999 or more In low-income communities across the US Very concerned 40% 49% 41% 27% Somewhat concerned 37 31 35 48

In your own community Very concerned 27% 37% 25% 12% Somewhat concerned 20 21 21 20

Note: “Not too concerned” and “Not at all concerned” responses not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, February 2016.

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