tuesday, november 10, 2009 politico 39 PREVIEW: Treacherous Landscape Senate GOvernors Balance of At Stake Balance of At Stake Power 37 19 18 9 Power 37 19 18 20 Total Democratic Republican Open Total Democratic Republican Open HOUSE 435 Seats at Stake

180 Solid D 44 Likely D 22 15 9 15 150 Solid R Lean Tossup Lean Likely Source: Cook Political Report D R R

Ohio California Florida’s Minnesota’s New Hampshire’s Governor Governor 8th district 6th district 1st district

Ohio has been kind to Republican Gov. Arnold Though you wouldn’t know it from GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann Democratic Rep. Carol Shea- Democrats in recent years, Schwarzenegger is on his way his bombast, Democratic freshman drives Democrats batty with her Porter doesn’t cut a high profile in but the flailing state economy out, but the largest and perhaps Rep. Alan Grayson represents a in-your-face conservatism, yet no Washington. She doesn’t do the and an unemployment rate of most ungovernable state in the highly competitive Central Florida- matter what they throw at her, she cable-television shows, she’s not on 10.1 percent have threatened nation is nevertheless poised to based seat. His precarious political still seems to end up on top. the leadership track and she doesn’t first-term Democratic Gov. have a governor’s race almost position would seem to demand a In 2008, Democrats thought she say outrageous things. Ted Strickland’s reelection as fascinating as the one that cautious approach, but that’s not wouldn’t be able to recover from her Still, her bid to win a third term prospects. elected the former actor. Grayson’s style. sensational October cable-television is shaping up as one of the most Given that this is a key swing It’s California, so naturally all Instead, he has gone guns blazing comment that Obama “may have fascinating races of 2010 because state, national Democrats will campaign-spending records are at the Republican Party, winning anti-American views.” Almost $2 of what it will reveal about the new be closely watching this contest in jeopardy and a few fabulously notoriety for an incident on the House million poured into her Democratic political landscape. — and the race for Ohio’s open wealthy candidates are in the floor in which he accused the GOP rival’s campaign as a result. Still, Shea-Porter was the longest of Senate seat — for clues for 2012. hunt. There’s even a billionaire — of wanting people to “die quickly” Bachmann managed to pull off a long shots when she first won her New After all, in the 15 presidential former eBay CEO Meg Whitman rather than get better health care. narrow victory. Hampshire seat in 2006, a former elections since 1952, Ohio — and she’s currently the GOP Then Grayson grabbed headlines This time around, bolstered by anti-war activist who almost no one has picked the winner 14 front-runner. for calling a top female adviser to progressive online activists who expected to knock off an incumbent. times. In 2008, Obama won 51 On the Democratic side, state Federal Reserve Board Chairman detest Bachmann, Democrats are Yet the national political percent of the Ohio vote, the Attorney General Jerry Brown is Ben Bernanke a “K St. whore.” hoping to mount an even more environment has changed best Democratic presidential poised to pull off one of the great His combative, scorched-earth aggressive effort to dislodge the considerably since then, and her race performance since 1964. second acts in American politics. style has won him a national liberal two-term congresswoman. against Manchester Mayor Frank Republicans are well- The 71-year-old former governor, following, but it’s also made him But that hasn’t stopped Guinta will prove a great indicator of positioned to take advantage of who served two terms beginning GOP Public Enemy No. 1. Still, Bachmann, who recently described just how much it has changed. Strickland’s vulnerability with a in the mid-1970s and made Republicans have yet to settle on an Democrats’ health care plan as the Shea-Porter has faced considerable candidate who is familiar with the three failed bids for the White opponent. “crown jewel of socialism.” criticism back home about her national spotlight — former Rep. House, is now the front-runner. Why? Local Republicans are well And Bachmann won’t be an easy approach to the health care debate, John Kasich, a former House But Sen. Dianne Feinstein has aware that Grayson won’t go down mark — she’s amassed an army of with GOP opponents ripping the Budget Committee chairman, left the door open to a bid, which without a fight — a campaign adviser small donors and attained rock-star former grass-roots activist for her Fox News host and short-lived would set up a clash of California told POLITICO last month that status on the right, which is just as initial reluctance to hold public presidential candidate. political titans. “Whoever wins the nomination will eager to return her to Congress as health care events. That makes her end up gutted like a fish by Election the left is to send her back home to something of a canary in the coal mine Day.” Minnesota. for the big Democratic class of 2006.

Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic Tossup Tossup Lean Republican Lean Democratic Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Rothenberg Political Report rating: Narrow Democratic advantage Lean takeover Tossup Republican favored Tossup

the bellwether the survivor the provocateur the bomb thrower the coal mine canary

Gov. Ted Strickland (D) Atty. General Jerry Brown (D) Rep. Alan Grayson (D) Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) Age: 68 Age: 71 Age: 51 Age: 53 Age: 56 Home: Bexley Home: Oakland Home: Orlando Home: Stillwater Home: Rochester First elected: 2006 Statewide wins: 4 First elected: 2008 First elected: 2006 First elected: 2006 Term: 1st Term: 1st Term: 2nd Term: 2nd

Strickland approval Brown Favorability 2008 House Election 2008 House Election 2008 House Election Approve Favorable Disapprove Unfavorable 52% 46% 52% Neither approve/disapprove No opinion Alan Grayson (D) Michele Bachmann (R) Carol Shea-Porter (D) 48% 44% 48% 43% 46% 37% 29% Ric Keller (R) El Tinklenberg (D) Jeb Bradley (R) 15% 27% 10% Bob Anderson (I)

Obama Approval Obama Approval 2008 Presidential 2008 Presidential 2008 Presidential Approve Approve 53% Disapprove Disapprove 52% 45% Neither approve/disapprove No opinion Barack Obama (D) Barack Obama (D) Barack Obama (D) 60% 52% 47% 53% 47% 45% 31% John McCain (R) John McCain (R) John McCain (R) 3% 9% Source: The Ohio Poll, Oct. 14-20; Source: Field Poll, Sept. 18-Oct. 5; Source: Almanac of American Politics, 2010 Source: Almanac of American Politics, 2010 Source: Almanac of American Politics, 2010 808 adults 1,005 registered voters Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Fast Fact Strickland ran unsuccessfully Democrat Jerry Brown has run Grayson’s House district voted According to the blog Smart Shea-Porter won her seat in 2006 for Congress three times before for statewide office five times — for GOP Gov. Jeb Bush in 2002, Politics, Bachmann made 44 over Rep. Jeb Bradley, 51 percent winning on his fourth try in 1992. winning four races — and also has George W. Bush in 2004, GOP national cable news program to 49 percent, then defeated He then lost his House seat in three unsuccessful presidential Gov. Charlie Crist in 2006 and appearances between January Bradley again in a 2008 rematch, 1994 but won it back in 1996. campaigns under his belt. Barack Obama in 2008. 2008 and August 2009. 52 percent to 46 percent.