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JOHN WEAVER – Chief Strategist Overview

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JOHN WEAVER – Chief Strategist Overview SUBJECT: THREE MONTHS TO: KFA TEAM FROM: JOHN WEAVER – Chief Strategist Overview: Just over three months ago Governor Kasich became the last major candidate to announce he was running for President. We are now a little over three months away from the first caucuses and votes. As we near the halfway point between our announcement and the voters finally weighing in and the third debate, now is the time to assess our standing and our path to the nomination. In short, the Governor is well-positioned in New Hampshire and for the long road to the nomination. Right Message: We’ve received results back from our New Hampshire poll, conducted by Christine Matthews. The results are very encouraging. Our favorables and ballot tests are strong and the results show that voters support Governor Kasich’s policy reforms and message. The coming debates coupled with continued events in New Hampshire will allow the Governor to forcefully lay out his fiscal and economic vision, buttressed by his strong pro-growth record. This is a winning message. Our polling shows that New Hampshire voters value Governor Kasich’s profile. Voters want a candidate who has balanced budgets and created surpluses, who they also believe cares about them and will work across party lines to get things done. This is John Kasich in a nutshell. Total Very Important Important 92% 60% Has balanced budgets and created surpluses 86% 59% Cares about people like me 85% 59% Will work across the aisle to get things done 84% 40% Has national security experience 79% 42% Has cut taxes 48% 14% Has been a governor Voters also respond to the Governor’s record and his plan for the future: Total More Favorable Less Favorable No More Fav Much Smwt Smwt Much Difference 72% 42% 30% 6% 4% 19% Cut personal and corporate taxes so families and job creators keep more of what they earn. 71% 43% 28% 7% 5% 17% Enact a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution so the budget stays balanced. 71% 37% 34% 5% 2% 21% Cut excessive federal regulations and red tape on businesses that keep them from being competitive, but continue to provide protections for consumers, public health, and the environment. Positioning: Our polling was conducted before the public announcement of the financial collapse of the Bush campaign, but in this snapshot in time in New Hampshire, Governor Kasich is just two points out of third and ahead of Bush, Rubio, and Christie. And when given a choice between Governor Kasich, with about 60 percent hard name ID, and Jeb Bush, with 100 percent name ID, Governor Kasich leads by eight points. For whom would you vote: Jeb Bush or John Kasich? 32% Bush 40% Kasich The Governor also has significantly stronger favorability ratings than Bush with much greater room for growth. Total Total Fav Unfav Jeb Bush 50% 45% Chris Christie 49% 43% John Kasich 45% 31% We know we have the best grassroots infrastructure in New Hampshire, with grassroots leaders from previous McCain, Bush & Romney campaigns working with former Senator John Sununu. We also know we have a compelling message and record to run on. Our task now is to get the message out about Governor Kasich, his record and vision for the future. Conclusion: Governor Kasich remains well-positioned in New Hampshire and for the nomination battle following. We have a winning message that is uniquely ours and plays well across all lanes of the Republican Party. The coming debates play to our strengths and will allow us to lay the foundation nationally that is already taking hold in New Hampshire. We are ahead of schedule organizationally in South Carolina, Michigan, other Midwestern states and in the deep South. And in Iowa, where the Bush family has been active since 1979, in only 3 months we are in striking distance of Jeb. There will likely not be any lasting breakout moment in this campaign; the path to victory is staying disciplined and on our message. We will continue to build incrementally to peak when the delegates begin being awarded. New Hampshire is notorious for narrowing the field. We are positioned to come out of New Hampshire as the candidate that our Party can coalesce around. --- .
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