Issue 2 fallout: What's next for Kasich and Ohio GOP?
Monday, November 14, 2011
By Gayle Beck
Gov. John Kasich led the doomed campaign to get state Issue 2 passed last week. The last time an Ohio governor was in such a bad place at such a bad time, Bob Taft was stuck at his summer place in Quebec, watching the big blackout of 2003 shut down much of his state and seven others.
What does the spectacular thrashing of Issue 2 mean for the rest of Kasich’s term? Going into the election, his poll numbers had already dropped into the 30s. Is he a lame duck already, after only 11 months in office?
And what will the defeat of Issue 2 mean for Ohio Republicans in the 2012 presidential election? Their efforts to limit collective bargaining by public employees galvanized Democrats to get their own supporters to the polls Tuesday, where they were joined by a fair number of Republicans and independents who saw Senate Bill 5 as fundamentally unfair.
And just when you think things couldn’t get more interesting politically, tea party organizers said Thursday they want to get a constitutional amendment on Ohio’s November 2012 ballot to limit the power of private-sector unions. Longtime Democratic strategist Dale Butland wondered in response, “What par t of no don’t they understand?” Or are they crazy like foxes, hoping to drum up a Republican turnout in the presidential election to match what the Democrats accomplished last week, and may do again next year when Ohioans also decide whether to repeal state election-law reforms?
“Now’s not the time to be taking up or considering these types of issues,” Kasich spokesman Rob Nichols said about the proposed amendment.
Meanwhile, Kasich said Tuesday night after the Issue 2 thumping: “I’ve heard their voices, I understand their decision and, frankly, I respect what people have to say in an effort like this. And as a result of that, it requires me to take a deep breath, you know, and to spend some time reflecting on what happened here.”
He isn’t the only one — here’s a sampling of online reaction to the defeat of Issue 2 and its possible impact on Kasich and the Ohio GOP.
... (Issue 2) was doomed from the start and the Republicans walked into this defeat with an amazing lack of clarity. ... A clear 61% rejected Issue 2 and sent it (to a) resounding defeat.
Issue 3 was a constitutional amendment placed on the ballot by citizen petition. It was a referendum on Obamacare seeking to exempt Ohioans from mandatory nationalized health care. ... That Issue 3 passed with a higher majority (66% for) than the defeat of Issue 2 (61%) is even more substantive. ... Thus, the pro-union, anti-Kasich turnout ... is even more distrusting of the current nationalized health care plan than collective bargaining reforms.
Governor Kasich and his allies got their clocks cleaned on Issue 2. ... If this election is an indicator of things to come, however, the 2012 election may actually become a referendum on Obamacare. Not even the pro-union crowd in Ohio seems to like that idea.
DAVID ZANOTTI, CEO, THE AMERICAN POLICY ROUNDTABLE
... In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Mr. Kasich defeated the Democratic incumbent by promising to address a large budget deficit and stem a tide of job losses. ... The new governor interpreted his mandate as standard Republican fare of public-sector restraint and tax cuts.
Something, however, went badly awry, as 61% of voters ended up choosing to repeal Mr. Kasich’s collective-bargaining legislation this week. His reforms were widely interpreted as an unfair attack on ordinary Americans. ... The idea that the law went too far reached across party lines, with one conservative commentator saying it offered unions nothing more than collective begging. ...
There is also an issue of tone. Most people in Ohio like to see themselves as moderates, but straight after his election Mr. Kasich took an especially punchy conservative line. He enthusiastically told lobbyists at one lunch that if they didn’t get on the bus that “we’ll run over you”. He added for good measure “and I’m not kidding.” ...
Looking towards the 2012 election, some strategists think the Ohio result strengthens Barack Obama’s hand in this most critical of swing states. ... As for Mr. Kasich, while licking his wounds, he must find a way to boost approval ratings now stuck at around 33%. Otherwise, he is more likely to be a hindrance than a help to the Republican nominee next year.
ECONOMIST.COM
... According to an independent survey of Ohio voters by Peter D. Hart Research Associates that sought to understand exactly how Ohioans voted and why, the key findings speak loud to the notion that Gov. Kasich in Ohio, Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin and others Republican officeholders may find their ability to duplicate last year’s big wins has ebbed so much that they no longer are the hunters but are now the prey.
Key findings of the survey include:
Just 25% of Ohio voters feel that Issue Two (SB5) represented the kind of change voters were looking for in 2010. ...
Kasich’s political coalition has collapsed as a result of the Issue 2 fight. Overall, 26% of 2010 Kasich voters rejected Issue Two this year — a group labeled “Kasich defectors.” These defectors will not be easy for Ohio Republicans to win back, since by a 62-28 margin, Kasich defectors now disapprove of Governor Kasich’s job performance.
... Voters were asked to consider what Republican leaders should do in the event that Issue Two were defeated. ... A resounding 60% majority says ... that the GOP should “drop the issue and move on to other matters.” Similarly, Ohio voters are prepared to punish legislators who, in the wake of Issue Two’s defeat, would nonetheless revisit legislation similar to SB5. By 24 points they report they are less likely (56%), rather than more likely (32%), to vote for a legislator or senator who supported a new bill to limit collective bargaining. ...
JOHN MICHAEL SPINELLI, EXAMINER.COM
... So did the governor go too far, damaging his political prospects in the process?
Our NPR StateImpact team created ... interactive maps that allow you to compare the county- by-county results in Ohio’s 2010 gubernatorial race to the results from Issue 2’s vote on Tuesday. ... The six counties that were Kasich’s biggest fans in 2010 were the biggest fans of SB 5 in 2011. But every other county that voted for Kasich in 2010 said “no” to SB 5.
The political stakes are interesting for the state legislature, as well. Republicans outnumber Democrats 82 to 50 in the state’s general assembly. But that means a lot of Republican lawmakers represent union-heavy districts that usually elect Democrats. If the passage of SB 5 this year is seen as an overreach, those lawmakers’ seats may be at risk next year.
ELISE HU, NPR.ORG
Most Republicans are attributing the defeat of Ohio’s collective bargaining reforms this week to a gusher of union spending, but the law might have withstood labor’s barrage had Republicans maintained a united front.
From the outset, when a GOP state senator first proposed the reforms last winter, Republicans in Ohio were divided over the law. Gov. John Kasich stayed on the sidelines and didn’t meddle in the legislature’s business. The reforms barely passed the state senate, 17-16, with six Republicans opposed. Five state house Republicans also voted against the bill. “This is a fundamentally rigged process,” said state Sen. Bill Seitz, who demanded that the law be repealed. ...
One lesson from the Ohio rout is that Republican governors should take ownership of reforms rather than allow state lawmakers to take charge. Another is to prepare and rally the troops before waging a major offensive. Ohio Republican lawmakers were ill-equipped to counter labor’s attacks. Making matters worse, they were betrayed by some in their own ranks. The governor took on a war he wasn’t prepared to fight and paid the price. Unfortunately, the biggest casualty may be taxpayers who would have benefited from the reforms.
ALLYSIA FINLEY, WSJ.COM (WALL STREET JOURNAL)
... Daniel Tokaji, a law professor at Ohio State University, says it’s important not to interpret the union win over Republican Gov. John Kasich’s proposal limiting public union rights as an endorsement of Democrats.
“I wouldn’t use the election results in Ohio to predict an Obama victory in Ohio or elsewhere, but I do think that this is a good example of what can happen if one political party gets too greedy,” he says. “It tends to trigger a backlash and right now Gov. John Kasich and Ohio’s Republicans are licking their wounds.” ...
Original Article: http://www.cantonrep.com/opinion/x1691083881/Issue-2-fallout-Whats-next-for-Kasich-and- Ohio-GOP