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NATO, EU, Russia, security and stability EU, Russia, security NATO, KEY WORDS: is necessary to calm down relations with Russia. The article brings out the main purpose of NATO in a in a is necessary to calm down relations with Russia. The article brings out the main purpose of NATO transformed world, with the accent on Europe, that is constantly developing new security conditions while tackling new challenges and threats. southern and south-eastern neighbourhood - Western Balkan countries, Syria, Libya and Iraq - and southern and Iraq - and countries, Syria, Libya Balkan and south-eastern neighbourhoodWestern - other threats, such as terrorism, it coming from the so-called Islamic State, causing migration crises, looked at bolstering deterrence and defence due to many concerns coming from eastern European looked at bolstering deterrence and defence due to many concerns coming from eastern European in internationalnew attitude dialogue with a that Allies agreed relations. The Russia’s allies about Russia rebuilding mutual trust needs to start. Europe faces major crisis from its In the times when Cold War divisions and to build good relations with Russia. However, the security environment, the security environment, However, divisions and to build good relations with Russia. Cold War Summit was focused especially Warsaw The NATO especially in Europe, is still dramatically changing. At the same time, it security. affect Europe’s deteriorated relations with Russia that on NATO’s After the collapse of the bipolar international order, NATO has been focused on its desire to eradicate has been focused on its desire to eradicate NATO After the collapse of the bipolar international order, Abstract Russian Federation Monika Begović, Luka Jušić Lidija Čehulić Vukadinović, European Allies and Strong Influence of Influence Allies and Strong European NATO in Europe: Between Weak Weak Between in Europe: NATO DOI 10.1515/cirr-2017-0019 XXIII (80) 2017, 5-32 2017, XXIII (80) ISSN 1848-5782 UDC 327(1-622NATO:4:470) Croatian InternationalCroatian - CIRR Review Relations 1 institutions adjust to the needs of the states and their national interests, so NATO stopped being an ordinary alliance. institutions adjust to the needs of the states and their national interests, so NATO On the definition of the alliance, see more in Walt (1997). The neorealist perspective of NATO’s transformation and reasons for it are presented in Waltz (1993, 2000). International 1 Defending the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all its members Defending the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all its members of the member states, it attracts new countries to become members of the member states, it attracts new countries to become members and justifies its role of transformed alliance. if this transformation never happened, the alliance would have no the alliance would have no if this transformation never happened, By adjusting to the national interests purpose without the opposite side. from the East would not be needed any more, NATO went through a any more, NATO went through a from the East would not be needed purpose in a changed world. NATO transformation and showed its new an alliance and, as neorealists claim, was no longer regarded only as constructivism) after the end of the Cold War it was predicted that NATO Cold War it was predicted that NATO constructivism) after the end of the bipolar world collapsed, as its purpose would cease to exist after the and Europe against threats coming of defending the Western world Although it could be noted that in the development of all main theories in the development of all main theories Although it could be noted that liberal institutionalism and social of international relations (neorealism, deterring attacks with its full range of capabilities, including nuclear of capabilities, including nuclear deterring attacks with its full range ones (Corvaja 2016: 5). In Warsaw, NATO focused strongly on the mutual commitment to to strongly on the mutual commitment focused In Warsaw, NATO while members, its all of sovereignty and integrity territorial the defend collective defence, crisis management and cooperative security. cooperative security. crisis management and collective defence, contribute and relevant and complementary, These tasks remain fully and security of all NATO members. to safeguarding the freedom alliance will continue effectively fulfilling all three in Lisbon in 2010: Concept agreed at the summit out in its Strategic core tasksas set security and shared values, including individual liberty, human rights, liberty, human rights, values, including individual security and shared on Europe keeping the rule of law, with the accent democracy and global role. The strong and important for NATO’s transatlantic ties the adaptation of the alliance to that new complex security scenario security scenario of the alliance to that new complex the adaptation has stayed the same: NATO’s essential mission in international relations. of freedom, peace, alliance remains a community to ensure that the The NATO summit in Warsaw, the second meeting on a high level since high level since meeting on a the second summit in Warsaw, The NATO in cornerstone a represents 2014, in Crimea of annexation Russian the Introduction

Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 6 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 7 This essay will bring out the reasons Europe needs NATO, Europe needs NATO, This essay will bring out the reasons 2 allies, advancing the interests of their foreign policy and trying to reduce the uncertainty of the international system, allies, policy and trying to reduce the uncertainty advancing the interests of their foreign politics, world to central as powers great and states see Neorealists anarchy. international as define neorealists which 44–79). characterized as anarchy, which additionally causes them to be within an alliance (Waltz 1979; Waltz 1993: It can be said, looking from the perspective of neorealism, that states join alliances to ensure the behaviour of other that states join alliances the the perspective of neorealism, It can be said, looking from to ensure 2 the conclusions and decisions reached at the Warsaw Summit. the conclusions and decisions reached at the Warsaw Summit. of cooperation among members and partner states. The essay will will essay The states. partner members and among cooperation of in the perseverance of European show an inevitable role of NATO of perspective the from challenges, and threats new to due security, The research concentrates on presenting a perspective of NATO presenting a perspective of NATO The research concentrates on importance the highlighting security, Euro-Atlantic of view the from clear that defence and deterrence are the bedrock of NATO and an are the bedrock of NATO and an clear that defence and deterrence activities undertaken by NATO. indispensable foundation for any used in describing how NATO is transforming, especially in regard to to regard in especially transforming, is NATO how describing in used Warsaw Summit, where it began to be decisions reached during the an alliance. Security and Defence Policy. While despite its creation of the Common be will neorealism of theory the question, research main the tackling Euro-Atlantic stability and security, and Waltz, as a neorealist, sees and Waltz, as a neorealist, sees Euro-Atlantic stability and security, while ways, many in other each control to allies for possibility a as it as NATO specifies still that task main a as defence collective having The persistence of NATO after the Cold War was very important for for important War was very the Cold The persistence of NATO after and poor people, all kinds of international criminal activities, etc. All activities, etc. All all kinds of international criminal and poor people, and security Euro-Atlantic challenging today are ‘obstacles’ these of order. the international technology, the growing threat of cyberattacks, climate change, climate change, growing threat of cyberattacks, technology, the more unemployed to energy supplies, more and risks of disruption started with Russian military intervention in Crimea, the rise of radical the rise of radical military intervention in Crimea, started with Russian Western Balkans, an constant instabilities in the Islam and terrorism, destruction and missile of weapons of mass accelerating proliferation and is at the crossroads of further adapting its enlargement policy, policy, its enlargement of further adapting the crossroads and is at in Ukraine that crisis, a crisis a major refugee is facing while Europe transformed NATO. Together with recently aggravated relations with with relations aggravated recently with Together NATO. transformed challenges East and new in the Middle instabilities Russia, ongoing challenges met with new NATO is again Balkans, in the Western became again, in the new context, one of the main tasks of a a of tasks main the of one context, new the in again, became themselves from states or coalitions whose superior resources could pose could resources superior whose coalitions or states from themselves the alliance will last. The balance of threat theory is based on balancing is based on theory threat of balance alliance will last. The the to states will join alliances in order proposition that and the behaviour protect powers. States join alliances avoid domination by stronger to the weaker side; bandwagoning means to choose the stronger. Walt’s long how ally and of choice the determines threat the is that conclusion When entering an alliance, states may either balance (ally an alliance, in opposition When entering to the principal (ally source of danger) or bandwagon with the state that poses the major threat) (Walt 1985: 4). Balancing is alignment with members, but also for different kinds of partnership. members, but also for different kinds imminent possibility” (Snyder 1990: 121) The reason for NATO’s survival is NATO’s for reason 1990: 121) The possibility” (Snyder imminent managing for as a tool stay relevant has managed to alliance the that modern conflicts while being open and inclusive, not only for new of power. Multipolarity is in international described with a lack of clarity politics, and NATO stands to reduce the more collapse is a far “alliance danger, of a single point of absence uncertainty; however, in the varies with the changes that occur in the international arena, and with arena, international in the occur that changes varies with the of Russia, global security and stability a shifting goes through new role the Crimea and what kind of a threat it presents. There is a suggestion by Glen is a suggestion There it presents. a threat Crimea and what kind of in apart from their context Snyder that “alliances cannot be understood therefore, NATO, of nature The 16). 1997: (Snyder system” international the in the contemporary international community in mind, NATO’s strategy international in the contemporary presented in Warsaw was mainly towards Russia’s directed action in proximity, offensive capabilities, and perceived intentions” (Walt 1997: 5). 1997: (Walt intentions” perceived and capabilities, offensive proximity, be noted that new Russia from this perspective, it could poses Looking environment security new the with so power, a than threat a of more Walt explains it, we can see that the distribution of power is an extremely is an power of distribution the that see can we Walt explains it, by geographic is affected threat level of “the and factor, important There is a distinction between alliances is a distinction between alliances to power and as a as a response There Stephen how at look we If neorealists. to according threat, to response Theoretical framework framework Warsaw Summit: theoretical and practical practical and theoretical Summit: Warsaw

Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 8 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 9 after the Warsaw Summit, the alliance should remain open for dialogue and democratic norms Euro-Atlantic the share do not who even with those other contributing allies on a voluntary, sustainable and rotational basis. and rotational allies a voluntary, sustainable contributing on other They will be based on four battalion-sized battle groups. At the same time, allied response to any aggression. Beginning in early 2017, an enhanced by provided force multinational a will comprise presence forward and the United Kingdom) and Canada, Germany nations (USA, framework (Luciolli 2016: 21). NATO decided in Warsaw to establish an enhanced in Warsaw to (Luciolli 2016:decided 21). NATO forward presence in its eastern flank (Baltic, Poland) to demonstrate its immediate an by triggering act ability to and solidarity determination, flanks of NATO) and beyond, so NATO’s Warsaw Summit offered a vision and dialogue defence alliancethe in 3D: deterrence, of future the of There is instability There an arc of insecurity and along NATO’s periphery southern the and eastern the from both originate threats (challenges and Warsaw Summit in decisions Summit Warsaw Army’, has been rather too slow to guarantee security and stability security and stability slow to guarantee on the too Army’, has been rather old continent. of its Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Security Common and Policy Security and Foreign Common its of or ‘EU military force, building a common Defence Policy, but its process in additional diverse institutions for conducting its actions. Therefore, NATO is is NATO Therefore, its actions. conducting institutions for additional diverse European alliance. The an primarily alliance, but just an than always more as part dimension, with military forces has developed a defence Union international arena more under control. NATO, as an intergovernmental intergovernmental as an NATO, control. under more arena international developed security, has of competence a core with organization The Warsaw Summit was a summit that showed the need for a high level of level of a high for need the showed Summit was a summit that Warsaw The of a Euro-Atlantic importance the member states. It showed unity among in the anarchy brings the and NATO through real becomes that partnership achieve their goals and feel safe in the international arena. arena. feel safe in the international their goals and achieve has begun transformation, having the goal to position itself strongly in the in the strongly itself position goal to the having transformation, begun has why states insight into reasons an Neorealism offers order. international a possibility them to as it offers the NATO umbrella, under to be choose a threat (Walt 1985: 5). That is what Walt offers as the reason that NATO that as the reason offers Walt is what 5). That 1985: (Walt a threat Russia’s 4 with that 3 stating that “the very rules of war have changed. The role of non-military means of achieving of means non-military of role The have changed. war of rules very “the that stating

out actions of informational conflict and the action of special operations forces. The open use of force, often under of achievement the primarily for stage, only at a certain to is resorted guise of peacekeeping and crisis regulation, the final success in the conflict” (Gerasimov 2013: 2). warfare techniques, warfare their weapons in of force of power the have exceeded they in many cases, political and strategic goals has gone, effectiveness. The focus of applied methods of conflict hasprotest non-military measures, applied with the humanitarian and other in coordination informational, economic, altered in the direction of the broadpotential of the population. All this is supplemented by military including carrying means of a concealed character, use of political, people. In 2002, the NATO-Russia Council was established. This is a joint decision-making body bringing together the 28 the together decision-making body bringing Council was established. This is a joint NATO-Russia people. In 2002, the missile defence the in supporting have a role Russia could that suggest as to far so went even allies and Russia. NATO 8). system put in place to defend allies against a potential ballistic missile attack from the Middle East (Turner 2016: with former members of the Warsaw Pact. In May 1997, the NATO-Russia Founding Act, the landmark document which document landmark the Act, Founding NATO-Russia the 1997, May In Pact. Warsaw the of members former with laid the foundation of the post-Cold War NATO-Russia relationship, was signed. That document its affirmed all of benefit thethe for shared free, and whole Europe, undivided and peaceful stable, a build to parties both of commitment In 1991, NATO established the North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) as a forum for dialogue and cooperation dialogue and cooperation for as a forum (NACC) Council Cooperation Atlantic North established the In 1991, NATO Russian General Valery Garasimov, Chief of the General Staff, described in February 2013 the new Russian hybrid 4 3 Also, this was a showcase for Russia’s Also, this was a showcase for Russia’s warfare tactics. new hybrid Gaddy 2013: 312–314). Thus, the Russian annexation of Crimea effectively to build a strategic partnership ended a 25-year effort by NATO 190–210). country (Čehulić Vukadinović 2010: (Baltic states, Poland), because Moscow has made no secret of its belief(Baltic states, Poland), because that its neighbours should be firmly within its sphere of influence (Hill and protection of a Russian-speaking minority in those regions. Some NATOprotection of a Russian-speaking fora pretext as used be might such behaviour that afraid now members are other countries among its neighboursfurther Russian action against some its commitment to international agreements. Russia’s action rang alarmits commitment to international border the Russian Federation. The mainbells in those NATO members who actions in Ukraine and Crimea waspublicly declared pretext for Russia’s the Russian Federation used military force and other forms of warfare tothe Russian Federation used military international law and reneging onacquire territory, decisively breaking and the December 2015 National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation 2015 National Security Strategy and the December as adversaries and Russiasees the United States and NATO state that Russia In Ukraine,world. a multipolar in alliance new anti-NATO leader of a the as not have been surprised by Russian action in Crimea and its subsequentsurprised by Russian action in Crimea not have been influence in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. The December 2014 Military Doctrine Besides all the other challenges to stability and security in the contemporary challenges to stability and security Besides all the other the main destabiliser of Federation is seen by NATO as world, the Russian shouldcommunity international The architecture. security European the or formats that may be better suited to solve multi-dimensional crises. multi-dimensional suited to solve that may be better or formats and non-state actors) with all partners willing to work and cooperate with willing all partners with actors) and cooperate to work non-state and NATO threats, and non-military to asymmetrical In response the alliance. organizations other to experience and capabilities its unique offer should values. NATO should develop cooperative arrangements (with both state state both (with arrangements cooperative develop should NATO values.

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Vol.XVIII, No. 66 - 2012 10 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 11 migrant crises (Fata 2011: 33–39) and, with the rise of populism, isolationism populism, of rise the with and, 33–39) 2011: (Fata crises migrant united political voice? Or, more importantly, are they capable of fulfilling Canada? The European with the United States and such tasks together Union is still facing the consequences of its institutional, financial and address security challenges such as the migration crisis, terrorism, hybrid crisis, terrorism, migration as the challenges such address security have a threats, cyber defence or energy security. But do the Europeans However, at the Warsaw Summit, real progress in cooperation between (NATO joint declaration Union was achieved. The and the European NATO to closely work should Union European the and NATO that signifies 2016b) There is no doubt that the extraordinary engagement and commitment and commitment engagement the extraordinary is no doubt that There security. and European Euro-Atlantic States is crucial for United the of as a collective defence organization. This would represent a significant (Lorenz 2016: 10). strategic victory for the Russian Federation choices of sovereign states. For Russia, the best way to achieve this could could achieve this way to best Russia, the For states. sovereign of choices it irrelevant alliance, making the credibility of the be by undermining to maintain a buffer zone extending into European Union and NATO Union European into extending zone maintain a buffer to security new a of creation the enforce to is attempting and territory, and security defence the in on weigh would allow it to that architecture patterns of behaviour and political-military patterns of behaviour and political-military messaging make it clear that Russia perceives the post-Soviet space as its sphere of influence, wants invited were not but Article 5 security guarantees to join the alliance command and force structure necessary to supported by the new NATO Russian capabilities, members. NATO new these of defence the secure ethnic Russian population feel very vulnerable, especially case feel very vulnerable, ethnic Russian population in the (Andzans allies NATO eastern the of one on military attack a Russian of 2016: 14–20). The new democracies in central and eastern Europe were and Lithuania between Kaliningrad and Belarus. For all For those reasons, Kaliningrad and Belarus. and Lithuania between with a substantial the Russian Federation member states bordering NATO Crimea have the aim of intimidating Crimea have the the alliance and turning the balance would reinforcement any ground Also, advantage. of forces to Moscow’s Suwalki linking Poland of land corridor the narrow have to transit through borders. Deployment of Russia’s air defence system, coastal defence coastal defence system, Russia’s air defence of Deployment borders. and Kaliningrad capabilitiesdenial (A2/D2) in area anti-access system and by Russia conducting both ground military exercises and air activities activities air and exercises military ground both conducting by Russia Moscow has Furthermore, members. NATO the borders of some close to NATO’s capabilities along conventional of deployment the accelerated rhetoric against NATO, including threats of a nuclear attack, is backed backed is attack, of a nuclear threats including NATO, against rhetoric The

its diplomatic channels, managed to make a division between some make a division its diplomatic channels, managed to between of them could if this situation persists, some member states and NATO: the unilateral actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and would in Ukraine the unilateral actions of the Russian Federation condemn Russian actions in Syria. However, the Russian Federation, with The Warsaw Summit had the aim of showing Russia that a homogeneous Russia that showing aim of Warsaw Summit had the The of alliance liberal group members was determined to maintain equally group condemned same The democracy and human rights. member states. goal of these measures is to let the Russian Federation know that any that know Russian Federation let the goal of these measures is to will not made by Russia (such as in Ukraine) unilateral decisions further European Eastern the to support of message is also a which tolerated, be USA, Great Britain, Germany and Canada. Also, NATO would continue NATO Britain, Germany and Canada. Also, Great USA, shield in Romania and increase the presence of to build its anti-rocket Black Sea (Public Diplomacy Division navies in the 2016: 1). NATO and the Baltic states was needed and that four multinational brigades and that four and the Baltic states was needed the from officers of command the under countries those to sent be would members of NATO, led by Poland, were calling upon NATO to bring a bigger to calling upon NATO by Poland, were led members of NATO, armed presence to their countries. After long and difficult negotiations, in Poland military presence a bigger that member states concluded the The July 2016 Warsaw Summit marked a turbulent time for NATO. Eastern NATO. time for July 2016 a turbulent The Warsaw Summit marked Russian influence on NATO’s Eastern members Russian influence on NATO’s will in the context of coercion create a new type of military create a dependency” of coercion will in the context (Rynning 2002). for European security and stability: “Military operations will occur in ad hoc in ad hoc will occur “Military operations security and stability: European for thus resulting in a type of on both NATO and EU means, coalitions that rely weakness European superiority and but US institutional interdependence, very popular trend of building an EU Army, which would lead to greater lead to greater which would an EU Army, of building trend very popular insufficient proving is matters, defence in Union European the of autonomy defence budget. Besides the external threats (Russia the main one), one), main the (Russia threats external the Besides budget. defence with mostly connected challenges today, many internal is facing NATO The Union. European the with its relations states or member its European and extremism, the majority of members are not willing to increase the increase to willing are not of members majority the extremism, and

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Vol.XVIII, No. 66 - 2012 12 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 13 further 5 which is considered to which is considered 7 and holds military exercises and 6 Missile Brigade was transferred to the town of Chernyakhobsk nd Russia, because it is located between NATO member states and missiles can successfully NATO member Russia, because it is located between NATO in that region target member states in that region. world. For more, see Chance (2016). (2016). budget was 54.5 billion US dollars and the 2016 stands at 49.2 billion in the US dollars, which makes it one of the highest Russia has developed the world’s most formidable nuclear missile, Satan 2. For more, see Shukla and Smith-Spark Russia see Shukla and Smith-Spark has developed the world’s most formidable nuclear missile, more, Satan 2. For Kaliningrad Oblast is a Russian enclave located between Poland and Lithuania. It is of very high strategic value for The Russian military budget has been rising since the start of the modernization and reformation of its The Russian and reformation military. military budget has been rising since the start of the modernization The 2015 7 6 in Kaliningrad Oblast. The brigade is armed with the newest Iskander in Kaliningrad Oblast. brigade is armed with the newest The 5 states and Poland is the region of Kaliningrad, region states and Poland is the when problem emerged new A in Europe. militarized region most be the the 152 Defence System, and with that it has completed its goal to create a solid a create its goal to completed has it that with and System, Defence Baltic the issue for big 2016: 10). Another (Kacprzyk NATO towards front be seen in the decision made by Russian joint staff to give this district top be seen in the decision made by 2016: 10). (Kacprzyk modernization and equipment education, in priority and Missile Belarus in its Air of integration the completed Russia has also precisely to its Western military district which is located on the border the on is located which military district its Western precisely to also importance of this district can member states. The NATO with four on a general draft” (Kacprzyk 2016: shifted towards on a general draft” (Kacprzyk 2016: that doctrine 10), and Russia has also transferred armed force. and professional a modern more Russia, or of part European the to forces its armed of majority the in 2012 with a complete overhaul of its doctrine, which gave birth to a which gave birth to its doctrine, of in 2012 overhaul with a complete Russia then, had held the doctrine from the former Until new armed force. based army “mass a as forces armed its defined had which military Soviet The Russian military started its process of modernization and reformation Russian military started The as an outward challenge and could explain the convergence of these of convergence explain the could and challenge outward as an countries in the past few years, especially in the case of Hungary, as a Russian Federation. new friend of the developed its missile and nuclear arsenal, nuclear missile and developed its in the neighbourhood of NATO member states. That could be defined from within. Some experts in international relations say that if Poland if say that relations international in experts Some within. from to spark its turning even it could unsafe, and marginalized feel to continues has increased its military spending, Russia Federation. Russian the Russian military equipment. On the other side, there is Poland, regarded as regarded is Poland, side, there other the On equipment. Russian military arising challenges and the in NATO, bloc anti-Russian the of forefront the have traditionally traditionally have Russia, with relations turbulent had relations those but ties and to economic decade due last the improved in have significantly on Russian dependence on of a dependence and because oil and gas, become become advocates for its policies within NATO. Countries like Hungary

8 Russian President Russian President 9 (22 Nov 2016) that reported The Times is double the value in 2004. For more, see Reuters (2016). more, see BBC (2016). The full range of the Iskander missile system is 700 km. From Kaliningrad Oblast, it can effectively target even Berlin. For Berlin. even target effectively can it Oblast, Kaliningrad From km. 700 is system missile Iskander the of range full The and Latvia will be an estimated 2.1 billion US dollars, which combined military budget of Lithuania, Estonia In 2020, the 9 elections were won by the coalition led by the Law and Justice and elections were won by the coalition led by the Law and Justice 8 look to the internal political factors, Poland is a liberal democracy that has parliamentary when last year crisis began crisis. The phase of a into entered Feeling threatened, Poland still Poland Feeling threatened, believes it is help that enough not getting against a possible Russian for protection attack. Poland has a from NATO very interesting internal and external political situation. If we take a closer proximity to Kaliningrad. Europe, which shows that the Baltic Europe, which shows that the Baltic a special place in Russian states have military compulsory has already introduced Lithuania policy. foreign and its about the geopolitical environment concerned conscription, irresponsible behavior” (Miller 2016). irresponsible behavior” (Miller 2016). to Putin is moving his missiles enclave as a threat to its western European expansion. European unity is fractured. Alliance members are members Alliance is fractured. unity European Russian expansion. security pact. And the next American questioning the value of the mutual Russia’s excuse to Russia and ready to favorable seems openly president Action Plan for their membership in 2008, but Russia clearly opposed membership in 2008, but Russia clearly opposed their Plan for Action favorable most has the now “Putin invade them. to this and proceeded since the end of the Cold War to continue international environment Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea), Putin made it clear that no country will join country that no made it clear Putin Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea), were very close to getting a Membership These two countries NATO. to triple their military a Russian attack. budget in fear of invasions in with and, east the to enlargement NATO opposing is Putin (South disputed territories Russia created where and Georgia, Ukraine (Kacprzyk 2016: 11). The countries that are closest to Russia are already are closest that countries 11). The (Kacprzyk 2016: for example, are going so Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, viewing it as such, rapid deployment and transportation of troops across the Western district. Western across the troops of and transportation rapid deployment Russian the readiness within level of high a shown have exercises These towards the alliance should be seen as a provocation armed forces and At the moment, there is no imminent threat of conflict betweenin Western conducted which were the military exercises but and NATO, Russia goal of have had the Ladoga and West, Shield, as Union Russia, such (Kacprzyk 2016: 11). 2016: (Kacprzyk missiles which can effectively hit targets in the Baltic states and in Poland in and states Baltic the in targets hit effectively can which missiles

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Vol.XVIII, No. 66 - 2012 14 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 15 return a sense of security and sense of importance within the alliance to within the importance of and sense security a sense of return between Brussels cooling of relations Poland, because at this point further and Warsaw would only go in favour of the Russian Federation. NATO member states realize its situation, as the focus is Mediterranean as the its situation, states realize member NATO member states with Syria and the refugee crisis. NATO must find a way to if Poland chooses to depart from NATO. The allianceThe has so far had a NATO. if Poland chooses to depart from to feel more in Poland, but Poland is starting faithful and stable partner all not feels that Poland by Brussels. marginalized and ignored and more These political problematic for Poland, and developments are extremely could face a new situation resolved, NATO if these problems are not forces within Poland and, if not dealt with properly, this situation will only forces within Poland and, if not continue to deteriorate (ibid.). in the past year the Polish political elite has started doing the same thing. same Polish political elite has started doing the past year the in the anti-democratic the policy has strengthened foreign Russia’s aggressive an aggressive Russian foreign policy. Also, we can notice a similarity similarity a notice can we policy. Also, Russian foreign aggressive an domestic use the uncertain to continues Putin the two countries. between and people, his on grip the tighten to excuse as an situation foreign and Poland would be affected the most were we to see a continuation of see a continuation we to most were Poland would be affected the victory of the coalition of the Party of Law and Justice and Civic of the Party of Law and Justice victory of the coalition Platform, Polish official rhetoric became markedly anti-Western and anti-European (ibid.). by the situation in the region, where it borders Ukraine. Until 2014, it borders Ukraine. Until Poland where in the region, by the situation of beginning since the but in Ukraine, partner stable economic a had the With partner. Poland’s be capacity to no has Ukraine aggression the army completely modernized and reformed according to current NATO current to according and reformed modernized army completely political situation is affected Similarly, Poland’s external standards (ibid.). has positioned itself has positioned itself as the anti-Russian a leader of coalition in Eastern of fear of a Russian this role until today. Because Europe, and it holds had its that region in the few countries the of is one invasion, Poland own way (Buras and Balcer 2016). The external political situation of Poland situation of Poland political external and Balcer 2016). way (Buras The own Poland transition, Since its democratic by its environment. is conditioned conservative, which criticizes the foundation of liberal democracy. Polish Polish liberal democracy. of foundation the criticizes which conservative, Jaroslaw President claimed Kaczynski openly that Poland in his speeches pave its it must and that democracy liberal of weight should dismiss the Civic Platform. Their win saw a major shift in Polish politics from liberal to liberal from politics shift in Polish major saw a win Their Platform. Civic NATO leaders were worried worried leaders were NATO 10 That would not be possible, because Gazprom and the Hungarian government have signed a contract that guarantees Hungary a low price for about 22 billion m3 of gas.

10 NATO summit in Cardiff in 2015, but subsequently stopped the return of return the summit in Cardiff in 2015, but subsequently stopped NATO gas to Ukraine (ibidem.). This influence does not stop only at Fidesz, but one back. An example of this is the at made agreement an accepted and Federation Russian the to when Hungary introduced sanctions Author Daniel Hegedus called Hungarian foreign dance” (ibidem.) policy in a which “peacock Hungary took two steps forward and then Ukraine and attempt to further tear apart Western allies, leading to the allies, leading to apart Western tear further to and attempt Ukraine its neighbours (ibid.). short-term isolation of Hungary from crisis when Orban called for the establishment of the autonomous region of region crisis of the autonomous when Orban called for the establishment large a form Hungarians region, historical this In Ukraine. in Transcarpathia minority and this statement was as interpreted to destabilize an attempt countries in the NATO alliance, and between Hungary and other countries other and Hungary between and alliance, NATO the in countries of the Visegrad Group, happened at the very beginning of the Ukrainian is a member of NATO. A new, far heavier worsening of relations between Hungary and the Hungarians might veto the decision is actually Orban’s that country favour a influence can Russians to the that shown Putin, been has it because the Hungarians will protect Russian interests within the alliance, but at the time of the adoption of sanctions against Russia, the Hungarians did not veto the decision (ibidem.). However, the suspicion and fear that the first fear that Hungary could fall Russianunder influence, to threaten Hungary with higher if Russia were gas prices. according to which be the result of an agreement that this price could percentage includes most Hungarian gas, oil and other fuel imports, and part of its economy (ibidem.).comprises an important this arose the From of the same year (Hegedus 2016: 1). Before the 6.89 to Russia amounted from imports imposed, were Russian Federation sanctions against the this but figure, small a seem may This Hungary. to imports total of cent per Hungary Hungary and Viktor Orban became the new Prime Minister. One of first his official visits foreign a to country was a visit to Russia in November is Hungary. It maintains Federation. Russian East and the the to leans economically traditionally excellent political relations with Hungarian turning to Russia Russia began in 2010, when Fidesz rose and to power in Another Eastern European country that worries the NATO administration administration the NATO worries that country European Eastern Another

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11 81 per 12 The survey was conducted among 1,000 individuals in Germany and 1,024 in Russia (Körber Stiftung Survey 2016). among 1,000 The survey was conducted We can see these connections in three jobs in particular: the Paks nuclear power plant, the MET gas supply scheme MET the plant, power Paks nuclear jobs in particular: the in three see these connections can We and the modernization of the subway cars on Budapest underground line 3.

12 power with a rich culture and history. This kind of position towards Russia This kind of and history. with a rich culture power especially interest, in relation Germans is also driven by economic among 11 to a survey conducted by the Körber Foundation in March 2016, March in Foundation Körber by the conducted survey a to with Russia and see Russia as an equal closer ties Germans favour of cent on the strategy towards Russia presence in the Baltics or on NATO’s and politicians, especially German how showed clearly very which Poland, cautious about the stand on Russia. According are very Angela Merkel, The NATO summit in Warsaw was also, in a way, a reminder of Western summit in Warsaw The NATO sanctions against Russia; however, Germany showed no firm position after Brexit — but also status of European defence being aware of the capabilities. Russia robust responses or harsh messages, especially given that the Russia robust responses or Britain Union — Great leave the state is about to EU member strongest nervous over the new Russian role in international security, and NATO security, and new Russian role in international over the nervous has started to insist allies upon and ask its European for a harsher tone in communications with Russia. However, Europeans still hesitate in sending Many European and transatlantic NATO allies NATO have become rather Many European and transatlantic Union NATO alliance and new relations with the European European with the and new relations alliance NATO the case never came to trial because of his immunity as an MEP (ibidem.). MEP his immunity as an of trial because to came never case the in Moscow until 2003. in Moscow until 2003. In 2010, Bela Jobbik’s representative Kovacs became espionage for of was accused and in 2014 he Parliament, in the European the Russian Federation by the Hungarian high state prosecutor; however, not stop there. Jobbik representative in the European Parliament, Bela Parliament, European the in representative Jobbik stop there. not lived and 1986 in University MGIMO at Moscow in college finished Kovacs, has become the third political option in the country in the past few years years past few the in country the in option political third the become has dirty jobs, certain Moscow by to is connected Fidesz, which and, unlike does connection their (ibid.). But Kremlin the by funded is directly Jobbik is probably a lot stronger in the Hungarian ultra-right party Jobbik. Jobbik , a high percentage , a high 13 thinks that Brexit is irresponsible and that the European and that thinks that Brexit is irresponsible ‘Frayed Partnership’ German public opinion on Russia (2016) gives an overview of reasons of declining German- of reasons (2016) overview of Russia on gives an public opinion German Partnership’ ‘Frayed Russian relations since 2014. The Guardian

13 also a fear of terrorism, so there is a trend for right-wing populists to gain populists to right-wing for is a trend there so of terrorism, also a fear greater power in European countries such as Austria, Finland, Hungary, Britain with UKIP, even Germany and Great Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Union, as well as liberal Germans, needs Britain (Posener 2016). Different (Posener needs Britain as well as liberal Germans, Union, migrant crises, but especially and crises are striking Europe, economic very often aim at the rebirth of nationalism. Without a united Europe, not Europe, a united nationalism. Without of rebirth aim at the very often Posener Alan too. Germany, but problem, a could Russia present only in to the alliance. Losing one of the strongest military powers within the military powers strongest of the one the alliance. Losing to that the rise of populist parties for be dangerous could European Union Peter Hultqvis during the Summit (Champion 2016). If Britain really leaves the European Union, it loses the influence itcommitted more become to Britain for trigger a be could that and Union, has had so far within the would like to strengthen ties with NATO. “At this point of time we cannot ties with NATO. would like to strengthen Minister Swedish Defence said concerns,” defence on disagree to afford Brexit European Union, while Great Britain has one of the alliance’s most the of one has Britain Great while Union, European Brexit capable militariesnot NATO members, in Europe. Even countries that are and Russian behaviour over concerned are and were as Sweden, such The Warsaw Summit was also characterized by NATO officials trying to seek to trying officials NATO by characterized also was Summit Warsaw The confirmation oncontinued unity among allies concerned about a post- NATO, it is very important how Germany perceives Russia, but also how it Germany perceives Russia, but how it is very important NATO, the alliance. perceives NATO and its role within implications, especially for NATO, because the eastern alliance (Poland the eastern alliance (Poland because NATO, implications, especially for feeling to defend them, more to do wants NATO and Baltic states) allies European security and unity of within by Russia. For threatened of security and therefore NATO should not create permanent bases in permanent create should not NATO therefore of security and and the Baltic Eastern Europe have security states. These perceptions soldiers stand in defence of NATO members Poland and the Baltic states the and Poland members NATO of defence in soldiers stand of respondents do not by Russia, and 49 per cent if they are attacked believe NATO military that a permanent presence will increase their sense Foundation and the Polish Institute for Public Affairs for the Polish Institute and Foundation of Germans — 57 per cent — replied ‘no’ to the question should German German politicians could have in mind that they will contribute to lessen lessen to will contribute they mind that have in could politicians German In a towards Russia. are very mild therefore poses, and Moscow the threat Bertelsmann German by the out carried (2016) survey Partnership’ ‘Frayed to gas pipelines.to gas business With better Russia between ties Germany, and

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Vol.XVIII, No. 66 - 2012 18 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 19 The rise of populist The rise integration of the parties is dangerous for further 14 What is undeniably happening, however, is that the continent’s traditional mainstream parties are in full retreat. Across traditional mainstream parties are in full retreat. What is undeniably happening, however, is that the continent’s Europe, the centre-left social democrats and centre-right Christian democrats who have dominated national politics national dominated have who democrats Christian centre-right and social democrats centre-left the Europe, for 60 years are in decline. For more on this issue, see Goodwin (2011), Bröning (2016) and Henley et al. (2016).

14 and his announcements, that the US reduces its financial contribution to fragile in the more countries which could make some European NATO, Although it is in the utmost strategic interest of the US to have a stable a have to US the of interest strategic utmost the is in it Although President as American Trump with happen, could it Europe, secure and ‘going it alone’ is not an option for Europe or the United States (Stoltenberg the or Europe for an option it alone’ is not ‘going considering budget, alliance faces is the the that 2016). One problem that the US currently contributes almost 70 per cent of NATO spending. leaving the alliance. NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said that Stoltenberg Jens Secretary General alliance. NATO leaving the and that the West faces its in a generation, greatest security challenges role of America, which has the most important position in NATO and which position in NATO important most which has the America, of role the win of Donald contributes most to the NATO alliance After budget. US about the became worried and especially Europe, world, the Trump, endangered the transatlantic community’s future of staying united. After of staying united. transatlantic community’s future the endangered future what will be the it is a question of US, elections in the Presidential the Foreign Policy (De Luce and McLeary 2016). Foreign Policy (De Luce and McLeary to fracturing the European Union and It seems that Brexit contributed won’t be anybody in the EU to defend sanctions against us so zealously,” defend sanctions against us so zealously,” EU to be anybody in the won’t of Moscow, on Twitter in relation to wrote Sergey Sobyanin, the Mayor is testing the transatlantic alliance, and the strongest EU ally, the United United EU ally, the strongest the transatlantic alliance, and is testing the influence an have to opportunity the lose will Brexit, enforcing by Kingdom, Britain, there divided. “Without more Europe making therefore within, from seems to be that the partners seem to gain more utility from NATO than NATO utility from more gain to seem partners the be that seems to can Europe unfractured and united Only a its partners. gains from NATO Russia unity, European this fragile time for During be a security guarantor. Petersson (2011)the utility claim Petersson a fundamental question is whether that that is a problem. The answer is mutual, and if not, of the partnerships the NATO alliance, should not be given up on, as that would weaken the weaken would as that be given up on, alliance, should not NATO the of to the utility Referring transatlantic ties. EU’s credibility, and endanger Matlary and Edström, country, and a partner state member being a NATO for and how it works. European values such as human rights, rule of law, human rights, values such as works. European and how it for and equality, democracy are shared by which freedom, human dignity, of European integration, which results in growing scepticism towards the towards scepticism growing results in which integration, of European EU. EU stands reject what the as they process, for its enlargement EU and presenting challenges both to European democracies and to the process process the and to democracies European to both challenges presenting www. or www.nato.int newspaper (Stoltenberg (Stoltenberg newspaper Observer ). defence (for more on defence expenditure, see expenditure, defence on more (for defence worldbank.org efforts. However, even some of the rich EU countries, on GDP their of cent per two less than spend economy, EU biggest the like Germany as minimum of two per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to (GDP) to product gross domestic of their per cent minimum of two This guideline principally serves as an indicator of spending on defence. alliance’sdefence common the to contribute will to a country’s political Almost ten years ago, NATO member countries agreed to commit a countries agreed to commit member ago, NATO Almost ten years for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who Russia’s of new conditions, the borders. In such a constellation forces from wants Russia to withdraw its within. also faces challenges coming from European Union burden”, said Stoltenberg in Britain’s in said Stoltenberg burden”, admiration over Trump’s expressed his concern also 2016). Stoltenberg order. “It is “It is too easy all order. we and prosperity security the freedoms, to take American we need strong times uncertain these In granted. for enjoy the of share fair their shoulder to Europeans need we and leadership, face of new threats and create unstable new relations in the international international in the relations new unstable and create threats of new face

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Vol.XVIII, No. 66 - 2012 20 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 21 : NATO military expenditure as percentage of GDP in 2016 GDP in of percentage as expenditure military : NATO countries have still not developed a satisfactory level of trust to be able to trust level of developed a satisfactory have still not countries General Rasmussen during the NATO summit in Chicago. This multilateral summit in Chicago. General Rasmussen during the NATO and together working countries of importance shows the cooperation thus increasing efficiency. The approach is not new, but the member resulted in stressing the ‘pooling and sharing’ mechanism within the EU resulted in stressing the ‘pooling and sharing’ mechanism within military capabilities) (pooling and sharing of and the ‘smart defence’ Secretary NATO by former presented was which within NATO, agenda more than two per cent of their GDP on defence. The effects of the The defence. GDP on of their per cent than two more financial crisis deeply affected European defence budgets, which Source: Wright (2016) spend that Estonia and Poland Kingdom, United the It is only Greece, Table 1 Table European capitals about what the Trump administration’s foreign policy willEuropean capitals about what the Trump administration’s foreign policy relations (Kroenig 2017: 2). On the other hand, one hundred days into his presidency, Europe is still struggling to make sense of newly elected American inpresident Donald Trump. There is much consternation and vacillation told CBS News in December 2016 that Trump’s presidency could presenttold CBS News in December 2016 that Trump’s presidency could an extraordinary opportunity for US foreign policy, especially for US-Europe American engagement and presence on European territory. American engagement and presence he when right been have may Kissinger Henry State of Secretary former The is an essential partner for NATO, and its effort in building its own defence isdefence own its building in effort its and NATO, for partner essential an is with NATO. European security requiresnot taken as a duplication of roles breach” (Cilluffo and Cardash 2016). The two organizations share a majoritybreach” (Cilluffo and Cardash 2016). and therefore share the same strategicof members and common values, and threats. The European Unioninterests and face the same challenges NATO. But the potential for divergence between the two entities could beNATO. But the potential for divergence magnified now that the United Kingdom is no longer around to bridge the European defence depends on NATO and is still within NATO. “There isEuropean defence depends on NATO to keep in mind. It has always been with relationship also the EU’s a challenge to avoid duplication and inefficiency between the EU and reduced, with Germany wondering whether to fully commit to EU commonreduced, with Germany wondering side, becomes the only bigger EUdefence and France, on the other member country that has the political will and power to act. However, strengthening its defence capabilities under the Common Security andSecurity Common the under capabilities defence its strengthening EU military defence capabilities areDefence Policy. Without the UK, (European Union 2016: 20). (European Union Treaty, is working on especially after the Lisbon The European Union, and defence efforts should enable the EU to act autonomously while while autonomously act EU to should enable the and defence efforts with NATO” actions in cooperation and undertaking to also contributing NATO, and the importance of transatlantic ties is also shown in the new of transatlantic ties is also shown and the importance NATO, EU “The things, it says: other among strategy, where, European global security European community: as a security needs to be strengthened due to the inability of the European Union to be a more influential player on depends defence European is obvious that it scene, security the on focusing on maintaining national structures and stepping on the brakes on the and stepping structures national maintaining on focusing and more, getting of chance lose the have, risk to what they protect to will 2011: with less” (Biscop probably end up Therefore, 2). and Coelmont to create more projects based on this agenda. “Defence establishments establishments “Defence this agenda. on based projects more to create

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Vol.XVIII, No. 66 - 2012 22 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 23 imposed on the Russian Federation after the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea crisis in Ukraine the after Russian Federation the imposed on important for him. Also, during his visit to Union. to the European American commitment pledged strong Pence Brussels, Vice President Mike sanctions the of would lift some Trump Donald that concerns European the EU. During a press conference with the Italian Prime Minister in the Italian Prime Minister with the a press conference During EU. the White House on 20 April 2017, Trump stated that a strong Europe is very from the EU and endorsed Eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen in the Eurosceptic candidate Marine Le Pen and endorsed EU the from 2017 French presidential election. Despite of all that, Donald Trump has with to cooperate sent a signal that he and his administration are going Donald Trump showed scepticism about the multilateral institution. Tusk Donald Council President European has snubbed an invitation from He Kingdom United exit of the advocated the attend the EU-US summit, to Concerning the European Union, during his presidential campaign his presidential during Union, the European Concerning has even started to praise NATO’s growing defence spending and efforts spending defence growing praise NATO’s to started has even remarking that NATO combat terrorism, to boost intelligence sharing and is no longer an obsolete organization. that it intends to continue to honour the almost seven-decade long US to honour that it intends to continue Trump President NATO. and partnership transatlantic the to commitment President Trump himself, his Vice President Mike Pence Security at Conference the Munich in February 2017, has repeatedly offered reassurance Mattis, the Trump administration or Secretary of Defence Jim The fear that American president Donald Trump would weaken US The fear that American president from coming has not materialized. Whether to NATO commitment organization (Kroenig 2017: 4), but since taking office he has repeatedly for the alliance. voiced his support and increase their an ‘obsolete’ called NATO even Donald Trump presidential campaign, defence spending (Brattberg 2017). During his as to entertain the option of pulling back US forces from Europe, even Europe, from forces pulling back US of option the entertain as to and security American conditioning and NATO from US the withdrawing military protection of Europe, unless European allies fulfil their obligations During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly spoke spoke repeatedly Trump Donald campaign, presidential the During disparagingly allies. of America’s in NATO European partners Accusing time so far at that even went Trump defence, for paying enough not of for Europe and the traditional transatlantic relationship. transatlantic the traditional and for Europe entail. Europeans are not sure what Trump’s phrase ‘America First’ meansphrase ‘America Trump’s what not sure are Europeans entail. was said about the future of NATO’s ‘open door’ policy. The summit gave policy. The door’ ‘open NATO’s of future the was said about By inviting Montenegro to participate in the Warsaw Summit, the Alliance By to participate in the Warsaw Summit, the inviting Montenegro confirmed that it is on its way to fully-fledged membership. However, little stronger Euro-Atlantic bridge between the United States and the European bridge between the United Euro-Atlantic stronger members of NATO has to be found. and its importance, poses a big problem for the unity of NATO. There NATO. unity of the for poses a big problem its importance, and European the of part of distancing strategic a of danger potential is a a preserve a way to reason, that States. For United from the continent Kingdom, with the rise of populism in some European members of NATO of members European populism in some rise of the with Kingdom, towards NATO Trump President American of new approach and the new military gaps existing between the country and European members of and European members country the military gaps existing between unwilling unable or were members a decade European for which NATO, to fill. The European Union, especially after the withdrawal of the United the solidarity of the United States with its European allies. In Warsaw, the allies. States with its European United solidarity of the the United States, still with Obama as president, strongly determined to fill the deterrence, showing NATO’s commitment to Europe but also projecting but Europe to commitment NATO’s showing deterrence, former for summit last NATO Warsaw was the NATO. stability beyond Obama. It is striking how strongly he spoke about President American the Middle East, the threat of the so-called Islamic state — and therefore and — state so-called Islamic the of threat Middle East, the the its NATO at the Warsaw Summit renewed on collective defence and focus Lots of new challenges and threats are appearing in contemporary Lots of new challenges and threats annexation of Crimea, deeper crisis international relations — Russian in Conclusion summit in Brussels in May 2017, and Donald Trump’s first may be crucial. during that summit, visit to Europe allies, NATO members. Certainly it will take time to reassure and to repair repair to reassure and time to take Certainly it will members. allies, NATO his vision and Trump Donald about Europeans have many reservations the next NATO in general. The relationship the transatlantic and of Europe However, the US administration is still sending mixed signals to the European the to signals mixed sending still is administration US the However, have not materialized. have

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Vol.XVIII, No. 66 - 2012 24 Vol.XVIII,XXIII No. (80) 66 - -2017 2012 25 NATO’s enduring purpose in the new security environment, its influence tasks: security fundamental its of nature stability and the European on and cooperative security. collective defence, crisis management spending and other security measures, but also on the quality of the of quality the security measures, but also on spending and other states. The main focus is still democratic systems of its member on outlining The main problem is, therefore, whether and how the Warsaw Summit the and how whether therefore, main problem is, The NATO’s credibility commitments will future. as a be implemented in the effective defence more just on not value-based alliance will depend Europe and North America are not endangered. Europe and North America are not being active in the international arena again. It is important to stress that stress to is important It again. arena international the in active being any seek not alliance does the Warsaw that in stated it was repeatedly of security and safety the Russia if to threat poses no and confrontation The Warsaw Summit served as a enhance military capabilities, with Russia especially border, on its eastern confirmation of NATO’s decision to expansion is evident in the democratic stability that the enlargement in the democratic expansion is evident 106). 2007: (Hendrickson members” newest NATO’s in foster helped policy expansion had an immediate impact in stabilizing democratic civil-military stabilizing democratic in impact immediate an had expansion relations in these new member states. The first positive impact of NATO’s membership, as well as those of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia. Macedonia. and Herzegovina and Bosnia of those as well as membership, newest allies provided by the are military contributions the “Although understandably limited, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that a cautious nod in the direction of Ukraine and Georgia’s aspirations of aspirations Georgia’s and Ukraine of direction in the nod a cautious

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