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Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security for More Information on This Publication, Visit Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Russia, NATO, C O R P O R A T I O N STEPHEN J. FLANAGAN, ANIKA BINNENDIJK, IRINA A. CHINDEA, KATHERINE COSTELLO, GEOFFREY KIRKWOOD, DARA MASSICOT, CLINT REACH Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA357-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0568-5 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Cover graphic by Dori Walker, adapted from a photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Weston Jones. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The Black Sea region is a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West for the future of Europe. The Kremlin is seeking to establish a sphere of privileged influence over neighboring countries in the region and limit their integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), while enhancing Russia’s regime stability and improving military capabilities for home- land defense and power projection. This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project titled Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security Strategies. The report presents an assessment of Russia’s overall strategy in the Black Sea region and how Moscow is using various instruments of influence and its military capabilities to advance that strategy. The authors review how NATO members and partner states in Southeastern Europe and the Caucasus view Russia’s activities, areas of convergence and divergence in those nations’ interests, and areas for potential regional cooperation. The authors then pres- ent options for U.S. and NATO strategies and military actions that could enhance sta- bility and deterrence in this critical region. The report’s findings will be of interest to policymakers, military planners, legislators, and defense analysts in the United States, southeastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and other NATO and partner countries. This research was sponsored by U.S. European Command’s Russia Strategic Ini- tiative and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and devel- opment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. The research for this report was completed in May 2020 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. Human Subject Protections (HSP) protocols have been used in this report in accordance with the appropriate statutes and Department of Defense regulations governing HSP. The views of the sources rendered anonymously in the report are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. government. iii iv Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ...................................................................................xv Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction Stephen J. Flanagan ................................................................................ 1 Complex Political and Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Region ............................. 1 Methodology ........................................................................................... 5 Organization of This Report ......................................................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO The Black Sea Region in Russia’s Worldview Stephen J. Flanagan and the Project Team ....................................................... 9 How Russian Leaders View the World .............................................................. 9 How Russian Leaders View the West ...............................................................11 How Russian Leaders View Russia Itself ...........................................................15 Trajectories in Russia’s Worldview ................................................................. 23 Implications for Russia’s Strategy in the Black Sea Region ..................................... 24 Framing the Multidimensional Contest in the Black Sea Region ..............................25 CHAPTER THREE Russian Measures of Influence Short of Force Geoffrey Kirkwood and Dara Massicot ......................................................... 27 Media-Based Influences ............................................................................. 27 Energy Politics and Economic Influences ........................................................ 34 Clandestine and Covert Activities ................................................................. 38 Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy ............................................. 43 v vi Russia, NATO, and Black Sea Security CHAPTER FOUR The Military Role in Russia’s Black Sea Strategy Clint Reach ........................................................................................47 Russia’s Interests, Objectives, and Strategy in the Black Sea Region .......................... 48 Trends in Russian Military Capabilities ........................................................... 54 Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy ..............................................73 CHAPTER FIVE Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish Views on Russian Strategy and Posture Anika Binnendijk and Katherine Costello ......................................................75 Romania: Consistent Apprehension About Russia’s Intentions .................................76 Bulgaria: Caution in Balancing Concern with Opportunity ....................................81 Turkey: Concerns Overridden by Interests, for Now ............................................ 86 Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy ............................................. 90 CHAPTER SIX Western Partners on the Black Sea’s Northwestern Shore: Ukraine and Moldova Irina A. Chindea ..................................................................................95 Ukraine: Seeking Stronger Ties to the West, Hindered by Aggressive Russian Interference ...................................................................................... 98 Moldova: Western Partnership Limited by Internal Divisions and Russian Pressure ...... 115 Potential U.S. and NATO Actions in Ukraine and Moldova to Support a Countervailing Western Strategy ............................................................ 124 CHAPTER SEVEN The South Caucasus and Black Sea Security Stephen J. Flanagan, Geoffrey Kirkwood, and the Project Team ............................ 127 Georgia: Euro-Atlantic Aspirations ............................................................... 127 Azerbaijan: Seeking Integration with the West but Susceptible to Russian Pressures ...... 134 Armenia: Russian Ally Interested in Some Western Ties ...................................... 140 CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusions and Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy Stephen J. Flanagan ............................................................................. 147 Russia’s Intentions, Capabilities, and Redlines .................................................. 147 Recommended Elements of a Countervailing Western Strategy .............................. 149 References ........................................................................................... 153 Figures and Tables Figures S.1. Flashpoints in the Black Sea Region ..................................................xiii 4.1. Regional Naval and Air Facilities That Supported the Mediterranean Squadron, 1968 ........................................................................
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