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Minsk II a Fragile Ceasefire
Briefing 16 July 2015 Ukraine: Follow-up of Minsk II A fragile ceasefire SUMMARY Four months after leaders from France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia reached a 13-point 'Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements' ('Minsk II') on 12 February 2015, the ceasefire is crumbling. The pressure on Kyiv to contribute to a de-escalation and comply with Minsk II continues to grow. While Moscow still denies accusations that there are Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly admitted in March 2015 to having invaded Crimea. There is mounting evidence that Moscow continues to play an active military role in eastern Ukraine. The multidimensional conflict is eroding the country's stability on all fronts. While the situation on both the military and the economic front is acute, the country is under pressure to conduct wide-reaching reforms to meet its international obligations. In addition, Russia is challenging Ukraine's identity as a sovereign nation state with a wide range of disinformation tools. Against this backdrop, the international community and the EU are under increasing pressure to react. In the following pages, the current status of the Minsk II agreement is assessed and other recent key developments in Ukraine and beyond examined. This briefing brings up to date that of 16 March 2015, 'Ukraine after Minsk II: the next level – Hybrid responses to hybrid threats?'. In this briefing: • Minsk II – still standing on the ground? • Security-related implications of the crisis • Russian disinformation -
What Is Transformation?
NATO UNCLASSIFIED - PUBLICLY DISCLOSED What is Transfor?mation NATO UNCLASSIFIED - PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED Intentionally Blank NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED What is Transformation? An Introduction to Allied Command Transformation (January 2015) NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED WHAT IS TRANSFORMATION? – AN INTRODUCTION TO ALLIED COMMAND TRANSFORMATION TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword....................................................................................................................... i Preface......................................................................................................................... ii Chapter 1: Transformation – Definition, Strategic Environment and Role of ACT........ 1 Chapter 2: Transformation – Key Enablers & Tools..................................................... 5 Chapter 3: Transformation – Cooperation, Interaction & Engagement...................... 15 Chapter 4: Transformation – The Transatlantic Bond................................................ 25 Conclusion................................................................................................................. 26 Annex A: The ACT Command Structure Annex B: Glossary of Abbreviations NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED Foreword (by Lieutenant General Phil Jones, Chief of Staff, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation) When Allied Command Transformation (ACT) -
Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia
Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia Niklas Nilsson SILK ROAD PAPER January 2018 Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia Niklas Nilsson © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center American Foreign Policy Council, 509 C St NE, Washington D.C. Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodavägen 2, Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org “Russian Hybrid Tactics in Georgia” is a Silk Road Paper published by the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, Joint Center. The Silk Road Papers Series is the Occasional Paper series of the Joint Center, and addresses topical and timely subjects. The Joint Center is a transatlantic independent and non-profit research and policy center. It has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council and the Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. The opinions and conclusions expressed in this study are those of -
Joint Air Power Following the 2016 Warsaw Summit-Urgent Priorities
NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED ING TH LOW E 20 OL 16 F W R A E R W S O A W P R I S U A M T M N I I T O J URGENT PRIORITIES PRIORITIES URGENT UR ES GENT PRIORITI JOINT AIR POWER FOLLOWING THE 2016 WARSAW SUMMIT URGENT PRIORITIES Joint Air Power Competence Centre JOINT AIR POWER NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED Joint Air Power Following the 2016 Warsaw Summit – Urgent Priorities An Allied Command Transformation Headquarters Study Conducted by the Joint Air Power Competence Centre NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED Joint Air Power Following the 2016 Warsaw Summit Urgent Priorities An Allied Command Transformation Headquarters Study Conducted by the Joint Air Power Competence Centre NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED NATO UNCLASSIFIED – PUBLICLY DISCLOSED © This work is copyrighted. No part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission. Inquiries should be made to: The Editor, Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC), [email protected] Disclaimer This publication is a Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) HQ commis- sioned study conducted by the Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC). All copyright and intellectual property rights reside with HQ ACT, unless otherwise licensed. The views expressed in this work do not necessarily represent the position of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but are offered to foster dialogue and discussion re- garding urgent priorities in the field of air power capabilities and competencies. Though NATO classified documents may have informed the work of the authors, no clas- sified information has been directly quoted in this study, nor were any parts of classified information re-used in any form without prior sanitization. -
Nato's Future: a Tale of Three Summits1 Hans Binnendijk, Senior Fellow, Center for Transatlantic Relations, Johns Hopkins University Sais November 2016 Summary
NATO'S FUTURE: A TALE OF THREE SUMMITS1 HANS BINNENDIJK, SENIOR FELLOW, CENTER FOR TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY SAIS NOVEMBER 2016 SUMMARY NATO tends to make progress on key policy issues and capability from summit to summit. Major shifts in the orientation of the Alliance can be traced to significant summits like London (1990), Washington (1999), Prague (2002), and Lisbon (2010). During the past two years, NATO has held a summit in Wales (4-5 September 2014) and one in Warsaw (8-9 July 2016). A third mini- summit is planned for Brussels in 2017. These first two summits taken together again significantly shifted the focus of the Alliance in the face of a series of new and dangerous challenges in the East and South. They shifted NATO’s posture in the East from benign neglect to allied reassurance to some degree of deterrence. The proposed force posture is inadequate to defeat a determined Russian short warning attack. Considerable increases in forward deployed forces (perhaps seven brigades) plus strengthened reinforcements would be necessary for NATO to hold its ground. But the Warsaw formula does provide what might be called “deterrence by assured response.” In the South, Allies recognized the complexity of the threats to Europe and sought to define NATO’s role in dealing with them. The third summit next year in Brussels could set the stage for further progress on both fronts. Much more still needs to be done. But with these fairly dramatic changes, NATO is in the process of once again restructuring itself so that it will not be “obsolete” in the effort to provide security for the transatlantic allies. -
NATO's 60Th Anniversary Summit
NATO’s 60th Anniversary Summit Paul Belkin, Coordinator Analyst in European Affairs Carl Ek Specialist in International Relations Lisa Mages Information Research Specialist Derek E. Mix Analyst in European Affairs April 14, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R40454 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress NATO’s 60th Anniversary Summit Summary On April 3 and 4, 2009, the heads of state and government of the 26 members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) met in Strasbourg, France, and Kehl, Germany for a summit marking the 60th anniversary of the alliance. The summit was one of three stops on President Obama’s first official visit to Europe as President. Alliance leaders used the anniversary summit to pay tribute to NATO’s past achievements and to reaffirm their commitment to the alliance as the preeminent transatlantic security framework. They also completed a new round of NATO enlargement, sought common positions on the range of challenges currently facing the alliance, and began to set the parameters for NATO’s future direction. The key issue facing the alliance is the ongoing mission in Afghanistan, where allied governments are struggling to reach a strategic consensus on how to stabilize the country. The deteriorating security situation in the country has caused many to question the ability of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to achieve its objectives and has exposed rifts within the alliance as to ISAF’s mission and the appropriate means to accomplish it. NATO’s strained relations with Russia are a second key issue. -
Alexander Vershbow
EXCLUSIVE THE THREE SWORDS INTERVIEW "Everything we are doing has a 360-degree scope. We do not have the luxury of choosing between different challenges." ALEXANDER VERSHBOW Interview by Inci Kucukaksoy, JWC PAO and Peter Hutson, JWC CCI&E Branch AMBASSADOR ALEXANDER VERSHBOW served in U.S. Government and NATO appointments for almost four decades. In 2012, he became the first American to hold the position of NATO Deputy Secretary General — the Alliance's second most senior international civil servant — a post from which he retired on 17 October 2016, handing over to Ms Rose Gottemoeller of the United States. A long-time student of Russian Affairs and international relations, Ambassador Vershbow received a B.A. in Russian and East European Studies from Yale University and a Master's Degree in International Relations and Certificate of the Russian Institute from Columbia University. During his career, he has held a series of key assignments, including that of U.S. Ambassador to NATO from 1998 to 2001; "one of the most difficult periods on the international arena since the Cold War," Polish President Andrzej Duda said as he honoured Ambassador Vershbow with Poland's highest distinction of its kind, the Grand Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland, at Warsaw's Belweder Palace, on the eve of the Warsaw Summit. The Three Swords magazine has quoted Ambassador Vershbow consistently in every issue since 2012 via NATO's online "Newsroom", where one can check out the full rundown of everything about our Alliance. In our fast-changing world it is important to document NATO's unique story; and, unbeknownst to Ambas- sador Vershbow, he has always inspired us in producing this magazine and charting a course; his opinion pieces rank among our most influential ones. -
The Prague Summit and Nato's Transformation
THE PRAGUE SUMMIT AND NATO’S TRANSFORMATION NATO PUBLIC DIPLOMACY DIVISION 1110 Brussels - Belgium Web site: www.nato.int E-mail: [email protected] A READER’S GUIDE THE PRAGUE SUMMIT AND NATO’S TRANSFORMATION SUMMIT AND NATO’S THE PRAGUE PRARGENG0403 A READER’S GUIDE TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE 3 I THE SUMMIT DECISIONS 9 II KEY ISSUES 19 New members: Expanding the zone of security 20 New capabilities: Adapting to modern challenges 26 New relationships: Practical cooperation and dialogue 34 After Prague: The road ahead 67 © NATO 2003 NATO INVITEES Country* Capital Population GDP Defence Active Troop *Data based on (million) (billion expenditures Strength national sources Euros) (million Euros) Bulgaria (25) Sofia 7.8 16.9 494 (2.9% GDP) 52 630 Estonia (27) Tallin 1.4 6.8 130 (1.9% GDP) 4 783 Latvia (33) Riga 2.3 8.8 156 (1.8% GDP) 9 526 Lithuania (34) Vilnius 3.5 14.5 290 (2.0% GDP) 17 474 Romania (36) Bucharest 22.3 47.9 1117 (2.3% GDP) 99 674 Slovakia (38) Bratislava 5.4 24.9 493 (2.0% GDP) 29 071 ★ Slovenia (39) Ljubljana 2.0 22.4 344 (1.5% GDP) 7 927 III DOCUMENTATION 71 Prague Summit Declaration – 21 November 2002 72 Prague Summit Statement on Iraq – 21 November 2002 78 Announcement on Enlargement – 21 November 2002 79 Report on the Comprehensive Review of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council and Partnership for Peace - 21 November 2002 80 Partnership Action Plan Against Terrorism - 21 November 2002 87 Chairman’s Summary of the Meeting of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council at Summit Level – 22 November 2002 94 Statement by NATO -
Burden Sharing New Commitments in a New
DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE (DSC) Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security Cooperation (DSCTC) BURDEN SHARING: NEW COMMITMENTS IN A NEW ERA Report by Attila MESTERHAZY (Hungary) Rapporteur 170 DSCTC 18 E rev 1 fin| Original: English | 17 November 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. BURDEN SHARING DEFINED AND IN CONTEXT ............................................................... 1 III. BURDEN SHARING AS A PERENNIAL CHALLENGE IN NATO ........................................... 2 A. WHY THEN THE 2% GUIDELINE? .............................................................................. 2 B. TOWARD THE WALES 2014 JOINT 2% COMMITMENT ............................................. 3 IV. THE 2% DEBATE: LIMITATIONS AND BENEFITS ............................................................... 4 A. DEFENCE SPENDING DEFINED AND CRITICISED ................................................... 4 B. IS 2% VALID FOR ALL? ............................................................................................... 4 C. WHAT ABOUT RISK?................................................................................................... 4 D. INPUTS, OUTPUTS OR BOTH? .................................................................................. 5 V. WARSAW DOUBLES DOWN ON ADAPTATION INCREASING PRESSURE ON THE 2% ... 5 A. RECENT US VIEWS ON BURDEN SHARING ............................................................. 6 B. RHETORIC VERSUS REALITY – THE RENEWED US COMMITMENT TO EUROPEAN SECURITY .................................................................................................................. -
The Making of the 2016 White Paper: Incorporating Society As a Whole
The Making of the 2016 White Paper: Incorporating Society as a Whole Sebastian Maier August 1, 2016 The “2016 White Paper on German Security Policy and the Future of the Bundeswehr” is the most imperative recent document to lay out the Germany’s principles and tools in shaping security policy at large. It discusses key elements of security policy, describes the international security environment, identifies strategic priorities, and points out areas of engagement in which Germany has the opportuni- ty to shape policy. On first read, the paper´s most noticeable strength is the depth in which it explores its many concerns, from traditional policy power plays to the topical challenges of mass migration and climate change. The paper also bears testi- mony to the government´s clearly articulated commitment to a strategy that draws from all segments of society: domestic and international pundits, as well as consultants from both inside and outside the government, participated in drafting and shaping the document. This comprehensive approach to poli- cymaking is in keeping with, and a step forward from, the German Federal Foreign Office´s “Review 2014,” a project that used a socially integrated approach to foreign policy strategy and analysis. The timing of the White Paper coincides with the German parliament’s summer break, sheltering the document somewhat from immediate public scrutiny. It was enacted by the government on July 13, 2016, shortly after NATO’s 2016 Warsaw Summit: it is worth remarking that in the days leading up to the summit, General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg was outspoken in his public remarks on NATO’s antipodes. -
NATO and Trump the Case for a New Transatlantic Bargain
NATO and Trump The Case for a New Transatlantic Bargain By Fabrice Pothier and Alexander Vershbow NATO and Trump The Case for a New Transatlantic Bargain By Fabrice Pothier and Alexander Vershbow ISBN: 978-1-61977-400-1 Cover photo: Staff Sgt. Keith Anderson/Wikimedia. Closing Ceremonies for NATO Exercise Iron Sword in Lithuania on November 13, 2014, involving more than 2,500 troops from nine NATO countries. This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s conclusions. June 2017 – Second edition CONTENTS NATO’s Enduring Relevance .................................................... 3 The 2 Percent Ticket to Ride .................................................... 4 European Security Reloaded .................................................... 8 For a More Operational Role in the Middle East ...............12 The Art of Continuous Reform ...............................................14 Conclusion ......................................................................................15 NATO and Trump: The Case for a New Transatlantic Bargain ven before his inauguration, President Donald Trump shook the foundations of NATO more than any of his predecessors. Then candidate Trump’s state- Ements about the unfair fiscal burden carried by the United States compared with its European allies were nothing fundamentally new in NATO’s nearly sev- en-decade history. However, his argument that NATO was “obsolete”1 because it was not doing enough to fight terrorism caused puzzlement in European capitals, given NATO’s fifteen-year involvement in Afghanistan. Of even greater concern, however, was his apparent readiness to make conditional the holiest of holies, the US commitment under Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty to come to the defense of any ally that comes under attack. -
Re-Energizing the Baltic Lithuania and Its Neighbors Explore Energy Independence Through Nuclear Power
RE-ENERGIZING THE BALTIC Lithuania and its neighbors explore energy independence through nuclear power By Dr. Gregory Gleason, Marshall center P ER C ONCORDI A M ILLUS T R ati ON he official opening in July 2012 of pursue energy interconnections with poland naTo’s energy security Centre and sweden. Two new liquefied natural gas of excellence in the Lithuanian plants, one in estonia and one in Lithuania capital of Vilnius marks an (klaipeda) are being developed. polish important milestone for the north authorities have announced plans to scrap atlantic community and the their coal-fired generation export capacity in Tbaltic countries in particular. The baltic compliance with environmental regulations, countries’ high dependence on imported opening opportunities for greater regional energy has long made them vulnerable to cooperation with the baltic states. supply disruption and price volatility. The The naTo energy security Centre of naTo summit in riga in 2006 recognized excellence will be primarily concerned with the growing importance of energy security, advancing security capacity with respect advancing energy issues to a high priority to vulnerabilities, particularly concerning in the naTo agenda. energy interruption from either intentional The Lithuanian government in 2010 or accidental causes. The naTo center is established the Lithuanian energy security devoted to developing advanced knowledge Center as an aspect of the country’s national and best practices with respect to naTo energy strategy. The transformation of security interests. assessment of energy the Lithuanian energy center to a naTo fuel vulnerabilities will very likely include energy security Centre of excellence, as analysis of aggregate data on energy supply, Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaitė demand and transit.