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Mobile Evolution to Business drivers and Technology enablers for 2020 networks

Dirk Wolter, Managing Director, Mobile Architecture, APAC [email protected] April, 2015 Introduction: The Evolution of the

Internet of Immersive Everything Business Digitize the World and Networked Experiences

Societal Economy Digitize Interactions Impact Connecting: Connectivity Digitize Business (Business & Social) • People

Digitize Access to Process • Process • Social • Data Information • Mobility • E-commerce • Things • Digital Supply • Cloud • Email • Video • Web Browser Chain • Search • Collaboration

Intelligent Connections Introduction: The Evolution of

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

R&D – TACS. AMPS Voice

R&D – GSM/GPRS/EDGE. DAMPS/CDMA Digital

R&D – WCDMA/HSPA. CDMA1x/EVDO Data

R&D – WiMAX. LTE/LTE Advanced IP

? R&D 5G – … IoE

Introduction: Business Transitions

New New New Business Models Competitors Financials

• Flexible, usage-based • Global market reach over • Faster RoI pricing the top (OTT) • Predictable OpEx • Direct, In-direct and • Reduced barriers to entry • Start-up innovation Pass through • Accelerating pace of • IoT/IoE innovation • Agile Dev-ops

Strategic Options: 1. Smart Utility 2. Platform provider/enabler 3. Diversified player 5G 2020 Vision • Services • Ubiquitous (no more cell edge) • HD video everywhere (up and down) • Internet of Everything (M2M, M2P & P2P) • Sensing, Presence and Ad-hoc networking • Web eco-system of Apps and Services

. Technical Requirements

1. Higher System Capacity • 1000x capacity/km2

2. High Data Rates • 10-100x current 4G rates

3. Lower Latency • Below 1ms

4. Mass Connectivity • 100x connected devices

5. Energy Efficient • 10x Network and Device power savings

6. More Agile • 10x faster time-to-market 5G: Pillars Technology Enablers

“5 Bars” Service RAN Diversity By the most cost effective access

Provide Business Lower TCO Solutions Increase Agility Internet of Everything Virtualisation

Internet of Everything Service Providers

Connections Impacts • Cars/Trucks • Roads 2 for 1 M2M Juice BUY • Appliances sensors • Digital billboards • Vending • Inventory (RFID) Remote Site M2M Intelligent Targeted • Office facilities Monitoring Service Commerce Diagnostics Advertising • Intelligent GPS M2P • Home security devices • Home energy devices • Automated customer notifications • Auto-translation • Sponsored data Personalized Hyper Location mHealth Order Home Security • Connected Life Traffic report Presence Refills Energy Control

P2P • Video cameras • Television • Digital signage • Social media • Contact center Collaboration as a TelePresence as a Smart Health Service Service 5G Enables the Internet of Everything

World Population 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.6 (Billion)

Connected Devices 0.5 12.5 25 50 (Billion)

Connected Devices per 0.1 1.8 3.5 6.6 Person More Devices than People

2003 2010 2015 2020

3G 4G 5G Korea: Mobile Device Growth by Type already dominate share, M2M is growth driver

M2M (27%,60%) Smartphones (53%,32%) 15% CAGR 2014–2019 180 Featurephones (17%,4%) Tablets (2%,2%) 160 2020: 140 Laptops (1%,0%) • 165M Devices Wearables (0%,1%) • 230M Connections 120 • 46M Users Millions of 100 Other Portables (0%,0%) Devices 80 60 40 20 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 * Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019 5G: Role of HetNet

Trends of Network Capacity Growth 1000x 1000x b/s/m2 3x - 5x • Coordinated Multipoint Tx/Rx 5x-10x • 3-D/Full-Dimensional MIMO ~20x • New and/or Coding Schemes • More Licensed and Unlicensed Spectrum, Millimetre- Wave Bands • Licensed Shared Access • Unlicensed Spectrum Sharing Network Devices • Cell Densification 40x-50x • Local Area Networks (WLAN) Offloading • Integrated Multiple Access Technology (RAT) ~25x Operation • Device-to-Device • Joint Scheduling • Information & Communication Technology Coupling 1x - 2x Last Decade Next Decade

Source: 5G Network Capacity, Key Elements and Technologies, Qian (Clara) Li, Huaning Niu, Apostolos (Tolis) Papathanassiou, and Geng Wu, Jan 2014 5G: The role of SDN and NFV

• 5G TCO and flexibility demands Orchestrated -based virtualised network resources.

Service • Optimised virtual network functions (NFV) Orchestration TelCo Cloud tailored to each application requirements, e.g. • M2M Telemetry • M2M Video • Mobile Internet SDN NFV • Enterprise Cloud Services • Public Safety, etc.

• Each configured dynamically (SDN) using transport & compute resources from the same or different sources based on cost & availability. • Centralised and/or distributed • Private and/or Public Cloud 5G: Technology Enablers from Various Sources

RAN Diversity LTE New Universal Mobile/WiFi Low Power Wireless Access Air Interface Spectrum Smallcells Agg Heterogeneous Network Enh (HetNet) (LPWA) LAA LTE D2D dSON eICIC 802.11 LTE-M ac/ad/af CRAN

GERAN 802.11ah cSON Enh VoWiFi MANO LoRa Collaboration eANDSF Zigbee NFV Borderless Networks VoLTE Orchestration Network SaMOG Intelligence VNFs Security VPC, vIMS, Gi-LAN Telco Cloud Internet of Everything Analytics

Vertical Solutions Data Centre IoT Orchestration Cloud Connect M2M Unified Management SDN Inter Cloud Computing System Virtualisation Mobile Network Evolution 5 Phase Strategy 5

Knowledge Predictive SW 4 Network

Dynamic Closed loop/SON 3 Network

Virtualize & 2 Orchestrate Telco Cloud/NFV

1 Intelligence & Analytics & Optimization Software Abstraction Connectivity Heterogeneous Networks Cisco Mobile Internet Architecture

Voice & Messaging Enterprise M2M

NEW vIMS Hosted Collaboration Suite IoT Cloud Connect Services (HCS)

NEW Telco Cloud Universal Monetization Architecture Policy, Orchestration, Abstraction Mobility IQ

Unified Data Center Data Unified Analytics Network ASR5000 Series Packet Core Virtual Packet Core NEW 2G, 3G, LTE, WiFi, Femto, inline Services (VPC) ASR900 & 9000 Series Unified Mobile Backhaul

TDM, ATM, IP, GE, 10 GE, L3VPN, etc IP/MPLS Intelligent Backbone

Universal RAN Orchestration Access Wi-Fi SON ANDSF 3G, LTE cSON NEW

Universal Small Cells Macro Cells HetNet Wi-Fi APs, Femto, dSON Any G / Any Vendor

Heterogeneous Summary

• 5G is about Evolution not Revolution to a 2020 world • Mobile first, Video by default, Internet of Everything, Web Apps & Services • 5G networks will be built on 3 themes: 1. Internet of Everything Enablers 2. RAN Diversity 3. Virtualistion • Cisco Mobile strategy builds on these to transform 4G networks of today