The 5G Guide a Reference for Operators
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ODUC INTR ING THE 5G ERA S A R E S N E G N C D A D A IO O E S N N I S T N I D A E S I E T B S M O I L O S P I Y N N E D G S K N A S V A A N N E L O D S I U T A C E A C A C R P S E R T S D E U I E A S R N T I N E I S O O C U C N B O S N N S O I I D T A E R C T O S THE 5G GUIDE A REFERENCE FOR OPERATORS APRIL 2019 The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with over mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and 350 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. including handset and device makers, software Our data covers every operator group, network and companies, equipment providers and internet MVNO in every country worldwide – from Afghanistan companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles millions of individual data points, updated daily. and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, regional conferences. vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third- For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate party industry players, to support strategic decision- website at www.gsma.com making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought- leading research reports across a range of industry topics. For more information, please visit www.gsmaintelligence.com Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMAi Legal notice 5G rollout remains a critical competitive differentiator This report, and its associated models, is for information between operators which must be decided at an only and does not constitute a recommendation or individual level, based on prevalent market conditions advice. Readers of the report and users of the model in the relevant country and operators’ individual are obliged to verify themselves if the resources are fit business decisions. Only the continuation of inter- for their purpose or are compatible with their systems, operator competition can ensure the degree and pace services, operations of practices. of innovation, value and quality of service customers rightly expect. The information and content in the report and models are provided on an “as is” basis without any express or Please note that it is not the role of the GSMA to implied warranties, fitness for purpose, undertaking, recommend any particular commercial model nor guarantee or assurances attached. to give any instruction on the timing, intensity or structure of operators’ investments in new technologies Use of this report and its models is at the user’s own and networks. Rather, the purpose of this report and risk, and save in the case where UK law stipulates models is to describe common factors all operators otherwise, the GSMA disclaims any and all liability in will probably need to consider in elaborating their relation to its distribution or use. individual strategies to ensure efficiency of their investment in 5G, and which will help to accelerate Additional legal disclaimer applies to, and is included at innovation in the best interest of customers. the start of, Chapter 5. Acknowledgements The 5G Guide and its associated business case model In addition, the Task Force wishes to acknowledge and 5G Readiness tool were developed by the GSMA’s the insights from the ecosystem (especially Ericsson, 5G Task Force. Facebook, Google, Huawei, Nokia, Qualcomm, Samsung and VMWare), the over 30 enterprises that participated The team is grateful to all the organisations, institutions, in the study and the universities that have supported companies and individuals who provided insights to GSMA 5G activities - especially Kings’ College London help develop these resources. In particular, we thank and University of Surrey. the GSMA Board for providing the direction and guidance for this work, and appreciate all the insights Members of the GSMA 5G Task Force were drawn from from the discussions at the GSMA Policy Group, Strategy, Technology, Policy, Mobile for Development, Strategy Group and Technology Group. Legal, Marketing and GSMA Intelligence. We will also like to specifically acknowledge the inputs Emeka Obiodu from the following Board Member Operators (both Editor and Project Lead current and former) who are supporting GSMA 5G GSMA 5G Task Force activities. April 2019 América Móvil AT&T Bharti Airtel China Mobile China Telecom China Unicom Deutsche Telekom Etisalat Hutchison Whampoa (Europe) Limited KDDI KPN KT LG U+ Megafon MTN MTS NTT DOCOMO Orange SK Telecom Softbank STC Telecom Italia Telefónica Telenor Telia Company Telstra Turkcell Verizon Vodafone Acknowledgements 1 Contents List of Figures 6 2 5G Readiness and Enabling Conditions 50 List of Tables 9 2.1 Technology Readiness 51 Glossary 10 2.1.1 Standards completion schedule 52 Foreword 12 2.1.2 5G deployment models 53 2.1.3 SA vs NSA 5G 54 Executive Summary 14 2.1.4 Equipment readiness: 5G NSA 54 Imagine the future 18 2.1.5 Equipment readiness: 5G SA 54 2.1.6 5G technical features 55 Headlines from the future 19 2.1.7 5G coverage using 4G Infrastructure 56 A typical day for Mr G in the 5G era 20 2.1.8 Millimetre wave deployments 56 2.1.9 Backhaul upgrade for 5G 57 1 Introducing the 5G Era 22 2.1.10 5G voice & messaging 58 1.1 What is the expectation for the 5G era? 23 2.1.11 Voice service continuity 59 1.1.1 5G: a network of opportunity 23 2.1.12 NB-IoT and LTE-M as part of 5G 60 1.1.2 The post-2020 5G era 24 2.1.13 Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything (C-V2X) in 5G 60 1.1.3 Goals of the 5G era 25 2.1.14 Identity & Access Management in 5G 61 1.1.4 Industry expectations for the 5G era 26 2.1.15 eSIM in the 5G era 62 1.2 How is 5G different? 27 2.1.16 Delivering on virtualisation 63 1.2.1 5G design specifications 28 2.1.17 Vendor ecosystem for 5G 63 1.2.2 Comparison with 4G 29 2.1.18 Security considerations for 5G 64 1.2.3 Coexistence with 4G 30 2.1.19 Energy efficiency in the 5G era 65 1.2.4 5G latency & speed 31 2.2 Policy Readiness (including Spectrum) 66 1.2.5 5G and heterogeneous networks 32 2.2.1 5G era policy framework 67 1.2.6 5G and Intelligent Connectivity 33 2.2.2 Network deployment regulations 68 1.2.7 5G use cases 34 2.2.3 Regulatory flexibility 68 1.3 Why does 5G matter? 35 2.2.4 Spectrum in the 5G era 69 1.3.1 The importance of mobile 36 2.2.5 Regulatory costs 72 1.3.2 Economic value created by 5G 36 2.3 Market Readiness 73 1.3.3 5G as a Digital Economy enabler 37 2.3.1 Market readiness and timing 74 1.4 When is 5G coming? 38 2.3.2 4G maturity trigger 74 1.4.1 Standardisation roadmap 39 2.3.3 5G competitive landscape 75 1.4.2 5G connections forecast 40 2.3.4 5G and benefits of scale 76 1.4.3 5G vs 4G connections growth 41 2.3.5 Success factors for 5G handsets 77 1.4.4 5G Journey as a marathon 42 2.3.6 Lessons from 3G/4G: first mover advantage 78 1.4.5 Replacement of legacy networks 43 2.3.7 Lessons from 3G/4G: late mover risks 79 1.4.6 5G era revenues forecast 44 2.3.8 Lessons from 3G/4G: optimal rollout plan 80 1.5 Where is 5G happening? 45 2.3.9 Operational complexity with 2G/3G/4G/5G 81 1.5.1 5G trials and commercial launches 46 2.3.10 Leapfrogging to 5G 81 1.5.2 Regional/Country 5G forecasts 47 2.3.11 Collaboration and new skills for 5G 82 2 Contents 2.4 The BEMECS Framework 83 3.9 5G Value Enablers – Resilient Networks 2.4.1 Introducing the BEMECS framework 84 and Services 139 3.9.1 Importance of resilience 140 3 5G Value Creation and Capture 86 3.9.2 Predictive resilience: designing for resilience 141 3.9.3 Preventive resilience: frameworks to 3.1 The 5G Opportunity 87 assure resilience 142 3.1.1 The 5G opportunity framework 88 3.9.5 Corrective resilience: business continuity 3.1.2 Economic benefits of 5G 89 and disaster recovery 143 3.1.3 5G revenue projections 90 3.10 5G Value Enablers: Horizontal APIs 144 3.2 5G Value Capture 91 3.10.1 Importance of APIs 145 3.2.1 5G Value capture for operators 92 3.10.2 Technical landscape for APIs 146 3.2.2 5G and the ‘Core’ operator business 93 3.10.3 APIs, platforms & commercialisation 147 3.2.3 5G and new use cases 93 3.11 5G Value Enablers: Operator Cloud 148 3.2.4 The ecosystem investment/innovation 3.11.1 Importance of the Operator Cloud 149 opportunity 94 3.11.2 The case for MEC 150 3.3 What do consumers want? 95 3.11.3 Drivers for the Operator Cloud 151 3.3.1 Consumer engagement 96 3.11.4 Operator Cloud: infrastructure 3.3.2 Key survey insights 96 vs.