ENGINEERING & SCIENCE California Institute of Technology

:-;OVEMBER 1981

------In This Issue

tor of the Institute of Theoretical Corporation in 1953. A subsequent Astronomy in 1967 and was Plu­ merger with Thompson Products mian Professor of Astronomy and made the company, now known as Experimental Philosophy from 1958 TRW Inc., one of the world's to 1972. Currently he is associated largest technological corporations. with University College, Cardiff, Although he "officially" retired Wales. in 1978, Ramo remains as director Hoyle was knighted in 1972 and of TRW Inc. and chairman of the has received the Gold Medal of the board of directors of The TRW­ Royal Astronomical Society and the Fujitsu Company. He has been a Royal Medal of the Royal Society Caltech trustee since 1964. among numerous other honors for his scholarship. Mutual Interests Paul J. Slip Showing? Nahin is an "The rapid­ associate ity of tech­ professor of nological electrical advance­ and compu­ Catalina 1981 because of ter engineer­ On the cover - one view of Fresh­ our inability ing at the man Camp, with boats, the beach, to adjust to University of and people to get acquainted with. it, realize its New Hampshire. He is also a Cal­ For more pictures, see "Camping benefits and tech alumnus with a 1963 MS in In" on page 18. mmlmlze negatives - is pre- electrical engineering (sandwiched senting us with dilemmas and cri­ by a BS from Stanford and a PhD tical choices." In "Gods' Gifts or from UC, Irvine). Nahin has work­ Devils' Doings')" on page 13, ed for Beckman Instruments, According to Hoyle Simon Ramo discusses those nega­ Hughes Aircraft, General Dyna­ No stranger tives and the anti-technology atti­ mics, and the Institute for Defense to contro­ tude they have bred - and the fu­ Analyses; and he has taught at Har­ versy, Sir ture benefits, which make it essen­ vey Mudd College and George Fred Hoyle tial for the United States to main­ Washington University. Currently got his apol­ tain its strength in science and tech­ he is on leave to the electronic war­ ogy "out of nology. The article is the introduc­ fare faculty at the Naval Postgradu­ the way right tory chapter to Ramo's latest book, ate School in Monterey, California. in the begin­ America' s Technology Slip, which In addition to his academic activ­ ning" to goes on in subsequent chapters to ities, Nahin is a devotee and writer those who he presumed would dis­ offer some solutions to the dilem­ of science fiction and a freelance agree with the views expressed in mas. It is reprinted here with per­ journalist. He was in Pasadena not his Seminar Day address to the mission of the publishers, John long ago gathering material for an general session last May. That talk, Wiley and Sons. article about the Caltech football "The Universe: Past and Present Ramo himself has played an ac­ team (to appear soon in Omni Reflections," a section of which tive role in the rapid advance of magazine) and took a long-awaited (mostly the present reflections) is American technology. With a PhD opportunity to interview another excerpted on page 8, did indeed (EE 1936) from Caltech, he contrib­ Caltech alumnus, electrical en­ present a daring and original view uted to a number of research fields gineer, and science fiction writer of the origin of life, one quite at from microwaves to missiles before and fan. The resulL "An Interview odds with generally accepted co-founding Ramo-Wooldridge with John Pierce," is on page 22. theories. But this is the Hoyle style; his steady-state theory of cosmolo­ gy has been exciting controversy ever since he proposed it in 1948. No stranger to Caltech either, Hoyle first came here in 1952, has STAFF: Editor - Jacquelyn Bonner been here off and on ever since, Staff Writer - Jane Dietrich and will be a visiting associate here Photographer - Chris Tschoegl again this year. It was with Institute PICTURE CREDITS: Cover, 18-22,27·28,32 - Chris Tschoegl.lU .- Herb Professor of Physics William A. ShoebridgeIl3-17, 29 - fischer technik constructions, courtesy Macahoh Toy" Fowler that he developed the well­ Company/6 - Lois MacBird. . known theory on the origin and Engineering & Science (ISSN 0013-7812) is published five times a year. Septernhcr. N()\crnhc-r. evolution of the chemical elements. January. March. and May, at the California Institute of Technology. I ~Ol E",t California Boulevard. Pasadena. California 91125. Annual subscription <;7.50 dome,tic. tL" 00 foreign. Hoyle's academic home for most $20.00 foreign air mail. ,jng-Ie copit'" ~ I 50. Control1~d Circu1.ation pO'itage paid Pa!-adena, of his distinguished career has been California. All right~ re-:.erved. Reproduction of ,materi,!] c.nntaint:~l herein fi'!rbidden. \\. ithOljt authorization. © 19RJ Alumni A~soci.Htion California fn"t!tutc- of rechnol(t~7\ Publbhed the Cambridge University, where he California Institute of Technology and the Alumni • founded and became the first direc- addre" to Caltech. 1·71 P",adena. CA 9112' ENGINEERING & SCIENCE

CALlFOR'iIA I'iSTITUTE or TECHNOLOGYINOVEMBER 1981 v 0 I. lJ :vi E X LV. ~ L M B E R 2

Roger Wolcott Sperry, Nobel Laureate 1981 Page 6 Caltech's Hixon Professor of Psychobiology shares the 1981 Nobel Prize in Medicine for his dis­ coveries concerning "functional specialization of the cerebral hemispheres."

The Universe: Past and Present Reflections - by Sir Fred Hoyle Page 8 A distinguished British astronomer suggests that interstellar grains are organic material and that life did not arise through the blind forces of nature.

Gods' Gifts or Devils' Doings? - hy Simon Ramo Page 13 A leading scientist/industrialist balances the pluses and minuses of rapid technological development.

Camphig In Page 18 Getting away from it all at Catalina is a good way for freshmen to get into it at Caltech.

An Interview with John Pierce - by Paull. Nahin Page 22 One alumnus, electrical engineer, and science fiction writer and fan interviews another.

Departments

Research in Progress Page 26 Shopping Around - Tracking Smog

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This program of tours. originally planned for SOUTH AMERICA and THE GALAPA­ CENTRAL ASIA and THE HIMALAYAS: alumni of Harvard. Yale. Princeton. and M.l.T .. is GOS: A choice of itineraries of from 12 to 29 An expanded program of three itineraries, from 24 now open to alumni of California Institute of days,. including a cruise among the islands of the to 29 days, explores north and central India and Technology as well as certain other distinguished Galapagos, the jungle of the Amazon, the Nazca the romantic world of the Moghul Empire, the in­ colleges and universities. Begun in 1965 and now in Lines and the desert of southern Peru, the ancient teresting and surprising world of south India, the its sIxteenth year. it is designed for educated and in· civilizations of the Andes from Machu Picchu to remote mountain kingdom of Nepal, and the un­ telligent travelers and planned for persons who Tiahuanaco ncar Lake Titicaca, the great colonial tamed Northwest Frontier at Pesh.,war and the might normally prefer to travel independently. cities of the conquistadores, the futuristic city of Punjab in Pakistan. Includes the Khyber P.m, towering Moghul forts, intricately sculptured visiting distant lands and regions where it is ad· Brasilia, Iguassu Falls, the snow-capped peaks of the Andes and other sights of unusual interest. temples, lavish palaces, historic garden:s, the teem­ vantageous to travel as a group. ing banks of the Ganges, holy cities and pictures­ The program offers a wide choice of journeys to que villages, and the splendor of the Taj Mahal, as EAST AFRICA-KENYA, TANZANIA well as tropical lagoons and canals, ancient Por­ some of the most interesting and unusual parts of AND THE SEYCHELLES: A distinctive pro­ tuguese churches, the snow-capped peaks of the the world. including Japan and the Far East; Cen· gram of 5 outstanding safaris, ranging in length Himalayas along the roof of the world, and hotels tral Asia. from the Khyber Pass to the Taj Mahal from 16 to 32 days, to the great wilderness areas which once were palaces of maharajas. and the Himalayas of Nepal; the surprising world of of Kenya and Tanzania and to the beautiful islands South India; the islands of the East. from Java and of the Seychelles. The safari programs are carefully THE FAR EAST: Itineraries which offer a Sumatra to Borneo and Ceylon; the treasures of an­ planned and comprehensive and are led by experts penetrating insight into the lands and islands of cient Egypt. the world of antiquity in Greece and on East African wildlife, offering an exceptional the East. THE ORIENT, 30 days, surveys the Asia Minor; East Africa and Islands of the Sey­ opportunity to see and photograph the wildlife of treasures of ancient and modern Japan, with chelles; New Guinea; the South Pacific; the Gala­ Africa. Kyoto, Nara, Ise-Shima, Kamakura, Nikko, the pagos and South America; and more. Fuji-Hakone National Park, and Tokyo. Also in­ THE SOUTH PACIFIC and NEW cluded are the important cities of Southeast Asia, from Singapore and Hong Kong to the temples of GUINEA: A primitive and beautiful land unfolds Bangkok and the island of Bali. A different and REALMS OF ANTIQUITY: A newly- expanded in the 22-day EXPEDITION TO NEW unusual perspective is offered in BEYOND THE program of itineraries. ranging from 15 to 35 days. GUINEA, a rare glimpse into a vanishing world JAVA SEA, 34 days, a journey through the of Stone Age tribes and customs. Includes the offers an even wider range of the archaeological tropics of the Far East from Manila and the island famous Highlands of New Guinea, with Sing treasures of classical antiquity in Greece. Asia fortress of Corregidor to headhunter villages in Sings and tribal cultures and customs, and an ex­ Minor and the Aegean, as well as the ancient Greek the jungle of Borneo, the ancient civilizations of ploration of the remote tribal villages of the Sepik cities on the island of Sicily. the ruins of Carthage Ceylon, Batak tribal villages in Sumatra, the and Karawari Rivers and the vast Sepik Plain, as and Roman cities of North Africa. and a com· tropical island of Penang, and ancient temples in well as the North Coast at Madang and Wewak prehensive and authoritative survey of the civiliza· Java and Bali. and the beautiful volcanic island of New Britain tion of ancient Egypt. along the Nile Valley from with the Baining Fire Dancers. To the south, the Cairo and Meidum as far as Abu Simbel near the island continent of Australia and the islands of border of the Sudan. This is one of the most com­ New Zealand are covered by the SOUTH Prices range from $2.350 to $4,500from U.S. points of departure. Air travel is on regularly scheduled plete and far-ranging programs ever offered to the PACIFIC, 28 days, unfolding a world of Maori flights of major airlines. utilizing reduced fares civilizations and cities of the ancient world. includ· villages, boiling geysers, fiords and snow-capped which save up to $600.00 and more over normal ing sites such as Aphrodisias. Didyma. Aspendos. mountains, ski plane flights over glacier snows, Miletus and the Hittite citadel of Hattusas. as well fares. Fully descriptive brochures are available. giv· jet boat rides, sheep ranches, penguins, the ing tHneranes ,n detat? and listtng departure dates, as Athens. Troy. Mycenae. Pergamum. Crete and a Australian "outback," historic convict set­ hotels. individual tour rates and other information. host of other cities and islands of classical antiquity. tlements from the days of Charles Dickens, and For full details contact: The programs in Egypt offer an unusually compre­ the Great Barrier Reef. Optional visits can also be hensive and perceptive view of the CIvilization of an· made to other islands of the southern Pacific, such cient Egypt and the antiquities of the Nile VaHey. as Fiji and Tahiti. and include as well a visit to the collection of Egyp' ALUMNI FLIGHTS ABROAD tian antiquities in the British Museum in London. Dept. CT-1 with the Rosetta Stone. White Plains Plaza One North Broadway White Plains, New York 10601 cally severed, provided evidence that each brain half has its own perception, memory, and con­ sciousness. Each hemisphere has its own charac­ ter and function - the left half being verbal and mathematical and dealing with analytic and se­ quential reasoning, while the right half is spatial, conceptual, mute, and specializes in visualization and creativity. Sperry's research has shown that the functions of the right hemisphere are as im­ portant as those of the left, which had long been thought dominant. The greater understanding of the brain resulting from his work has relevance to education and philosophy as well as medicine. Sperry's general field of behavioral biology (much less psychobiology) did not exist at Cal­ tech in 1938 when Mrs. Frank P. Hixon estab­ lished a fund in her husband's memory for studies of "salient and fundamental biology directly con­ cerned with human behavior." Although she had been uncertain that money given to Caltech for her original purpose of "the correlation of mental or spiritual training with the scientific" would be fruitful, Mrs. Hixon was persuaded by Max Mason, then a member of the Caltech Executive Council. He wrote her that "this unique place" was just the right one to pursue fundamental sci­ entific knowledge of behavior - that in the long run it was most promising to direct' 'the great forces of natural science into the new science of Man." Mason's foresight was confirmed when in 1954 a faculty committee headed by George Beadle brought Roger Sperry to the Institute to occupy the Hixon chair. Sperry brought an already substantial reputa­ tion with him. Born in Hartford, Connecticut, in 1913, he attended Oberlin College (which also produced Robert A. Millikan, Caltech's first Nobel Prizewinner) where he was captain of the basketball team and also played varsity baseball, football. and track. He wa'> quoted at the time he Roger Wolcott Sperry entered college as hoping to specialize in some area of science or medicine if he could find some­ thing of sufficient interest. He received his BA (English) from Oberlin in 1935 and MA (psychol­ Nobel Laureate 1981 ogy) in 1937. [n 1941 he earned hi~ PhI) in zool­ ogy from the University of Chicago, also another way station in Millikan's career. Sperry spent a year as a National Research Council Fellow in biology at Harvard and from 1942 to 1946 was a ON October 9 Roger Wolcott Sperry, Caltech' s research associate at the Yerkes Laboratories of Hixon Professor of Psychobiology, was awarded Primate Biology. During the war he also served the 1981 Nobel Prize in Physiology Of Medicine as consultant to a government research project on for his discoveries concerning' 'functional spe­ the surgical repair of nerve injuries. He returned cialization of the cerebral hemispheres.' His to the University of Chicago as assistant professor work with split-brain patients. whose nerve fiber~ of neuroanatomy in 1946 and became associate connecting the halves of the brain had been surgi- professor of psychology there in 1952. In

6 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE / NOVEMBER 1981 1952-53 h~ also held a joint appointment at the patients by severing the connecting cable between National Institutes of Health as section chief for the hemispheres. Sperry's subtle experiments neurological diseases and blindness before his with these split-brain patients, who seemed in research attracted the attention of the Caltech most respects to function perfectly normally, led committ~e looking for someone who fit both the to the dramatic demonstrations that the two brain Hixon description and Caltech's demands. hemispheres in humans are distinctly different. At Oberlin he had been a graduate assistant to Over the past two decades Sperry's group has R. H. Stetson, an international authority on the tested many split-brain patients. Differences in physiology of speech, who emphasized the bio­ understanding and response from the two uncon­ logical aspects of psychology. Sperry's earliest nected sides of the brain to visual, aural, and tac­ publications in psychology were concerned with tile clues disclosed the astonishing dissimilarities muscle coordination. Other early research dealt that are now well known. Continuing investiga­ with the plasticity of the brain and functional re­ tions have shown that the right side does have covery after injury to the nervous system. With some language ability; implications of right- and experiments in nerve transplants in lower organ­ left-handedness, as well as differences in thinking isms he disproved the long-held theory that between the sexes, have also emerged from the nerves are interchangeable and can learn new research. functions. He studied the developmental pattern­ Sperry's work has attracted the interest of ing of brain pathways, in which he demonstrated popularizers, and "left-brain" and "right-brain" that neural networks are prewired according to a have become common even to schoolchildren's strict, genetically transmitted mapping system vocabularies. Sperry finds this more amusing than that is not subject to functional influence. Be­ troublesome, say his colleagues. He's an interest­ havior (in the sense of visual perception) was ing teacher but prefers small lectures and is not a shown to correlate precisely with these patterns of showman in class. Though a number of graduate nerve connection. To explain these prewired net­ students have worked in his laboratory, he does works Sperry developed the theory that growing not work with large teams and is basically an in­ nerve fibers are chemically "labeled" early in de­ dividual researcher. It is characteristic that, when velopment and form connections with each other the Nobel Prize was announced, Sperry and his by recognizing complementary labels on their wife were camping and fishing in a remote part of surfaces. Baja California and could not be reached for In the mid-1940s his interest turned to the organ­ several days. The announcement, when it reached ization of the mammalian brain, and he adapted him, cannot have been too big a surprise, to cats and monkeys the delicate microsurgical however; among his dozens of honors and techniques he had developed earlier to study awards, two years ago he received the Wolf Prize amphibian brains. With graduate student Ronald in Medicine and the Albert Lasker Basic Medical Myers, Sperry, now at Caltech, grew particularly Research Award, which is often considered the interested in the corpus callosum, a cable of 200 harbinger of a Nobel. million nerve fibers connecting the two halves of In recent years he has turned more and more the brain. The function of this cable was un­ toward writing on the mind-brain relationship and known until Sperry and Myers began their experi­ the role of consciousness (and free will), which ments on the possible role of the corpus callosum he perceives to have evolved as a directive and in transferring information from one hemisphere causal force in brain function. The unifying, to another in the brain of a cat. With their corpus functional role of subjective experience, accord­ callosa surgically split, cats trained to respond to ing to Sperry, brings ethical values into the do­ information shown to one eye did not react when main of science. He wrote this year in the Annual the image appeared only to the other eye. The Review of Neuroscience: corpus callosum apparently transferred at least Ideologies, philosophies, religious doctrines, visual information from one hemisphere to world-models, value systems, and the like another. Subsequent experiments revealed an will stand or fall depending on the kinds of even more extensive function. answers that brain research eventually re­ In humans it was thought that epileptic seizures veals. It all comes together in the brain. traveled across the corpus callosum from one half In 1968, 30 years after her original gift to Cal­ of the brain to the other. Adapting Sperry's tech, Mrs. Hixon wrote that Roger Sperry's work microsurgical techniques still further, Drs. Joseph was leading exactly toward the goal she had E. Bogen and Philip J. Vogel succeeded in limit­ hoped the Hixon fund might reach - "a know­ ing the seizures of acutely debilitated epilepsy ledge of the 'why' in human behavior. "0 -J.D.

7 The Universe: Past and Present Reflections

by Sir Fred Hoyle

DEFINING the universe to be everything there is, manifestly we cannot be expected to understand it exactly, since to do so we would need both a complete command of the laws of physics and the fantastic calculating power to work through the detailed properties of assemblies containing very large numbers of particles. What then are astron­ omers doing in their studies of cosmology? Obviously, we are beavering away to give an im­ perfect answer to an imperfectly defined problem. The issue is the quality or otherwise of our ap­ proximations. I suppose nine astronomers out of ten work on the presumption that our approxima­ tions are quite meritoriously good. In this essay I shall presume to hint that it may be otherwise. The nebulosity of nebulae, for example, is due to small particles, or grains, which act to produce a fogging of the distant light. In fact, sometimes the fogging is so extreme that we don't see the stars that lie behind the nebulosity. Sometimes this fogging effect produces apparent rifts that are really due to the material of the grains blocking calculations that, once evaporated, water-ice out the light of the stars that lie behind. Measure­ grains would recondense by themselves under any ments of the properties of the grains indicate that conditions that seemed plausible. I chanced on they are remarkably similar in their physical this difficulty as long ago as 1955 thinking then properties, in their sizes. Whatever observations that the grains must consist of some more refrac­ are being made, they always seem to tum out the tory substance than ice as, for instance, graphite. same. But the matter rested so lightly with me that I did The problem of the nature of these grains be­ nothing more about it until some five years later gan for me in a very innocent way but ended in when I had a graduate student, named Chandra unexpected results. In the 1950s, when I was Wickramasinghe, in need of a problem. much of the time here at Caltech, astronomers It was an encouraging indication that there believed the interstellar grains to be water ice. might be something right about the idea when it Nothing at all was riding on this issue for me, turned out that the physical properties of graphite and I would gladly have accepted the conventional happened to be such as would give a reasonable point of view if calculation had shown it to be vi­ approximation to the observed fogging that the able. The trouble was that interstellar grains are grains produce in the visual light of distant stars. constantly changing their positions in relation to Furthermore, the behavior of the physical prop­ the stars. Even the briefest exposure of a water­ erties with respect to frequency, to wavelength, ice grain to a temperature no higher than -150° enabled us to predict that graphite would produce C will cause it to evaporate. I didn't find in my enormous fogging in an ultntviolet waveband cen-

8 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE / NOVEMBER 1981 The fogging effect in nebulae - as shown in this photograph of the Horsehead Nebula in Orion in our own galaxy - is due to small particles, or grains. On the following page the same effect can be seen in the central region of the galaxy M33, much farther away. Measurement, of interstellar grains show them to be remarkably similar in phy,i­ cal properties regardless of where they are observed. Both of these photographs are fr,ml the 200-inch Hale telescope at Cal­ tech's Palomar Observatory.

tered at about 2000 angstroms. When this pre­ light. The shapes and sizes of the particles could dicted large extinction was actually discovered be varied, as well as the relative proportions of about a year later from rocket firings, it seemed graphite and ice. With so many parameters avail­ certain that there really must be something right able, a moderate correspondence with all the data with the graphite idea. However, it's one of the was inevitable and could not therefore be consid­ incorrigible features of science that, whenever ered much of an achievement. The important you have a theory that appears at first to be cor­ thing was to obtain a really good correspondence rect, you eventually find trouble in fitting all the with the data, and this holy grail eluded us with other details that come along subsequently. And maddening persistence. Starting from a moderate so it was with our graphite particles. agreement with all the data, we would tune up the By 1965 enough was known of the reflectivity parameters to get some particular feature almost of interstellar grains for us to see that the reflec­ exactly right, only to find the correspondence tivity of graphite was too low. Graphite was too with the rest of the data had become worse. absorptive, too black. It seemed therefore that, Gradually it was borne in on us that we had a while there was something right about graphite, wrong theory on our hands. the graphite theory could not be all right. So it came about that in the later 1960s we be­ The next step was to try a composite model for gan thinking of what other kinds of particle there the p~rticles, a model with graphite cores and might be. We tried metals and silicates as well as water-ice mantles. This composite core-mantle graphite. However, by 1970 the total quantity of theory was a parameter-fitting enthusiast's de- interstellar gas had become quite accurately

9 mown. Supposing all the refractory material, such as magnesium oxide, silica, calcium oxide, and iron to become condensed out of the gas into grains, one could calculate that the amount of the grains was insufficient to explain the 'observed de­ gree of fogging of starlight by a factor of about three. And then only if the sizes of the grains were chosen to give maximum opacity. Because this maximum opacity condition was quite un­ likely to be satisfied everywhere throughout our galaxy, the prudent conclusion was that the amount of metals and of magnesium aluminum silicates was in deficit by a factor of at least five. This result forced the conclusion that the grains have to be composed of elements with cosmic abundances an order of magnitude greater than magnesium, aluminum, silicon, and iron. It forced the conclusion that the mass of the grains had to come largely from carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen. But since by now we were fully con­ vinced that the graphite-water ice mixture couldn't be correct, what otherwise could the grains be? All inorganic solids built from carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen, perhaps together with hydrogen, could easily be seen to evaporate much too readily. So with an initial sense of bewilder­ ment, Wickramasinghe and I reached the con­ clusion that the grains had to be made up largely of organic material. An interesting question forced itself on our attention. With the realization that the interstellar grains are largely organic, one sees that the mate­ rial of the early solar system must have contained an enormous quantity of organics, at least 3000 this stage that we began our technical readings in earth masses of it. Much organic material would biology, fully expecting the usual picture of the be destroyed by the heat of the solar nebula, but terrestrial origin and evolution of life to be amply much would survive in the comparatively cool confirmed by the facts. outer regions of the solar system, especially in the But this first resting point did not survive those regions of the distant comets. And since at subse­ early readings. as it was quickly apparent that the quent times a fraction of comets have developed facts point overwhelmingly against life being of orbits of high eccentricity, bringing them to the terrestrial origin. Although we were quite re­ inner regions of the solar system with a part of leased from what [ now regard as a conceptual the material that is constantly evaporating from millstone, my own brain made no profound leap them enmeshing the terrestrial atmosphere, there toward freedom. It just plodded its way, small was a known process for transferring organic step by small step. first to the comets. Because materials from the outer distant regions of the comets must have experienced break-up and re­ solar system to the earth. Could this potentially formation with material interchanged between very large and still continuing source of organic them, and because the material would be organic, material have formed the basis for the origin of in our view ,it was possible to think of the whole life rather than the comparatively tiny quantity ensemble of comets, many billions of them, as a of organics generated in terrestrial thunderstorms life-generating unit. And because a few comets and other purely local events? are breaking up and scattering their contents all Wickramasinghe and I answered this question the time, the process was not relegated to the affirmatively, and so we arrived at a temporary remote past. This WaS a big plus mark, since equilibrium point ip our thinking: The organic theories that relate to current events stand in basis of life was inter~tellaL a position that some my view much above those that are concerned others r think are favoring nowadays ft was at only with situations that areJong dead and done

10 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE I 'imp.mER l(j~1 it's easy to see that the number of useless arrangements is enormous, more than the number of atoms in all the galaxies visible in the largest telescopes. This is for one enzyme, and there are upwards of 2000 of them, mainly serving very different purposes. So how did the situation get to where we find it to be? This is, as I see it, the biological problem - the information problem. It's easy to frame a deceitful answer to it. Start with much simpler, much smaller enzymes, which are sufficiently elementary to be discover­ able by chance; then let evolution in some chem­ ical environment cause the simple enzymes to change gradually into the complex ones we have today. The deceit here comes from omitting to explain what is in the environment that causes such an evolution. The improbability of finding the appropriate orderings of amino acids is simply being concealed in the behavior of the environ­ ment if one uses that style of argument. As this enormous problem gradually dawned on us, we thought to transfer the origin of life from the comets of our own solar system to all the other star systems of our galaxy. In going from the earth to the comets we gained in scope by perhaps a factor of a million. And in going from the comets to the whole galaxy we gained a further factor of 100,000 million - which satis­ fied us for awhile. This was a transposition into biology of a diagram that William Fowler [Insti­ tute Professor of Physics] and I drew together many years ago to illustrate the origin and evolu­ tion of the chemical elements. with. There was therefore much of interest to be Returning to the problem of the organic nature worked through in this first shift from the earth to of the interstellar grains, the question now sug­ comets, and the 'investigation of a number of side gested itself - could the grains be living cells issues deluded us for a while into thinking that together with the decay products of living cells? the main problem - the origin of life - had An entirely preposterous question on the face of been faced. it, but one that could be tested immediately. The big problem in biology, as.I see it, is to Apart from graphite particles, which are known understand the origin of the information carried from observations to have sizes of a few hundred by the explicit structures of biomolecules. The angstroms, the other interstellar grains must have issue isn't so much the rather crude fact that a sizes mainly centered at about. 7 of a micron. protein consists of a chain of amino acids linked This again is a requirement demanded by the together in a certain way, but that the explicit astronomical observations. And this is precisely ordering of the amino acids endows the chain the size of the most numerous kind of living cell with remarkable properties, which other orderings - bacteria. Moreover, the grains are known to be wouldn't give. The case of the enzymes is well remarkably similar over the whole galaxy, and known. Enzymes act as catalysts in speeding up it's the outstanding property of biological systems chemical reactions that would otherwise go far that they are reproducible. Inorganic grains are too slowly, as in the breakdown, for example, of without any strong size-determining property. starch into sugar. If amino acids were linked at In calculating the fogging effect that would be random, there would be a vast number of arrange­ produced by the normal size distribution of bac­ ments that would be useless in serving the pur­ teria and degradation products, the correspon­ poses of a living cell. When you consider that a dence to observations is remarkable. Unlike the typical enzyme has a chain of perhaps 200 links complex and unsatisfactory calculations we made and that there are 20 possibilities for each link, in the 1960s, we obtained an almost perfect result

11 iIi only a couple of days. Einstein is reported to cells, are to be regarded as purposeful tools, have remarked that while God may be subtle, he every bit as purposeful, if you like, as a garden is not malicious. If grains aren't organic with spade. We know from astronomical studies that connections to living cells, it would certainly be the grains are mysteriously connected with a incorrigibly malicious to have given us this excel­ whole range of phenomena: the rate of condensa­ lent result with a wrong theory coming after a tion of stars; the mass function of stars; magnetic long history of poor results with the right theory. fields; spiral arms of galaxies; and quite probably The potentiality of a cosmic system of life was with the formation of planetary systems. Not one so enormous compared to an earth-bound system of these phenomena has been explained by as­ that it was possible to rest content with the situa­ tronomers in better than fuzzy terms, just as the tion for awhile. But eventually I came to wonder views of the imaginary travelers in the spaceship if the potentiality of even a cosmic system was would be fuzzy if they attempted to explain ter­ really big enough. In thinking about this question restrial fields, walls, and ditches as products of I was constantly plagued by the thought that the the blind forces of nature. number of ways in which even a single enzyme It would be necessary to calculate in full detail could be wrongly constructed was greater than the the properties of complex biopolymers in order to number of all the atoms in the universe. So try as obtain the information required for the construc­ I would, I couldn't convince myself that even the tion of a living cell. Such a project would be whole universe would be sufficient to find life by quite beyond our practical ability, but not beyond random processes - by what are called the blind our comprehension. Indeed we are nearer to forces of nature. The thought occurred to me one understanding what would be involved in it than day that the human chemical industry doesn't a dog is to understanding the construction of a chance on its products by throwing chemicals at power station. random into a stewpot. To suggest to the research Now imagine yourself as a superintellect work­ department at DuPont that it should proceed in ing through possibilities in polymer chemistry. such a fashion would be thought ridiculous. Would you not be astonished that polymers based Wasn't it even more ridiculous to suppose that on the carbon atom turned out in your calcula­ the vastly more complicated systems of biology tions to have the remarkable properties of the en­ had been obtained by throwing chemicals at ran­ zymes and other biomolecules? Would you not be dom into a wildly chaotic astronomical stewpot? bowled over in surprise to find that a living cell By far the simplest way to arrive at the correct was a feasible construct? Would you not say to sequences of amino acids in the enzymes would yourself, in whatever language supercalculating be by thought, not by random processes. And intellects use: Some supercalculating intellect given a knowledge of the appropriate ordering of must have designed the properties of the carbon amino acids, it would need only a slightly super­ atom, otherwise the chance of my finding such an human chemist to construct the enzymes with 100 atom through the blind forces of nature would be percent accuracy. It would need a somewhat more utterly minuscule. Of course you would, and if superhuman scientist, again given the appropriate you were a sensible superintellect you would con­ instructions, to assemble it himself, but not a clude that the carbon atom is a fix. level of scale outside our comprehension. Rather From 1953 onward, Fowler and I have been in­ than accept the fantastically small probability of trigued by the remarkable relation of the 7.65 life having arisen through the blind forces of na­ Me V energy level in the nucleus of 12C to the ture, it seemed better to suppose that the origin of 7 .12 MeV level in 160. If you wanted to produce life was a deliberate intellectual act. By "better" carbon and oxygen in roughly equal quantities by I mean less likely to be wrong. stellar nucleosyhthesis, these are just the two Suppose a spaceship approaches the earth, but levels you would have to fix, and your fixing not close enough for the spaceship's imaginary would have to be just about where these levels are inhabitants to distinguish individual terrestrial actually found to be. Is that another put-Lip, artifi­ animals. They do see growing crops, roads, cial job? Following the above argument, I am in­ bridges, however, and a debate ensues. Are these clined to think so. A common sense interpretation chance formations or are they the products of an of the facts suggests that a superintellect has intelligence? monkeyed with physics, as well as with chemistry Taking the view, palatable to most ordinary and biology, and that there are no blind forces folk but exceedingly unpalatable to scientists, that worth speaking about in nature. The numbers one there is an enormous intelligence abroad in the calculates from the facts seem to me so over­ universe, it becomes necessary to write blind whelming as to put this conclusion almost beyond forces out of astronomy. Interstellar grains, living question. 0 '

12 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE / NOVEMBER 1981 Gods' Gifts· or Devils' Doings?

by Simon Ramo

THE HUMAN species has not changed significantly in many thousands of years. No basic alterations have occurred in the inherent designs of the body and brain. Ifa live baby from 100 centuries ago could be deposited with a similarly rooted family of today, that child might grow up to be shorter in physical stature than the average or have a differ­ ent susceptibility to certain diseases, but other­ wise would exhibit little more deviation from the rest of the community than many of its members would show from each other. The societies of humans, their organizations for ensuring survival and providing satisfactions, have been modified over the period of deducible history, but not because of changes in Homo sa­ piens. Social variations have resulted from peo­ Thus it was only forty years ago that a major ple's accumulation of experience and knowledge European nation, one highly developed techno­ about the physical universe and themselves, and logically but not in all ways socially, committed from the use to which they have put this learning. mass genocidal horrors. More recently we could Indeed, the know-how that human beings have observe that after a mere half~hour of psycholog­ accumulated up to the present moment can be de­ ical pressure some automobile drivers in Amer­ scribed, with only mild fear of oversimplifying, ica, in disputes over their places in line while by the words "science and technology." There waiting to purchase gasoline, drew pistols and has been disappointingly little progress in fun­ shot at each other. Speaking more broadly, we damental social dimensions: can hardly focus better on the limited social prog­ Is the democracy of today's world more ad­ ress of humankind than with a contrast of two vanced than that of the ancient Greeks? Probably facts. First, we learned what atoms are made of - in some ways. Yet, what about this century's and invented how to release such enormous ruthless dictatorships, the tribal wars fought in the amounts of energy from manipulating their con­ midst of starvation, the repressive and inhumane stituents that it has become possible to wipe out acts inflicted by many existing governments on most of the earth's population 30 minutes after a their own people? Brutality, fear, hatred, jeal­ decision to do so. Second, we have not been able ousy, distrust ofthe "other tribe" - these to follow this technological breakthrough, even characteristics are discernible even among so­ decades later, with a degree of social progress called educated and refined humans. Antisocial that would preclude the possibility of such a responses are inadequately contained by the thin catastrophe. veneer of accumulated behavioral advance; with If 100 years ago, a thoughtful visionary group provocation that need not be severe, they can had gathered to conjure up a list of future human quickly break out. achievements to be prized as valuable and inspir-

13 flourish, and the other in which the scientific ap­ proach is unknown and no wide employment of technological know-how takes place, and the societal differences between the two groups will be profound, more significant than the great­ est of their dissimilarities owing to race, religion, or geographic location. Imagine that we were to draw three curves, with time the abscissa for each, stretching over, say, 100,000 years. The ordinate of the first curve is to depict change in the basic makeup of the human species. We would see the curve as virtually flat, the alterations perhaps discernible to a minute degree only by the most expert biologists and anthropologists. The second curve is to measure social advance of the human race - ing, they might have included among others a progress in the relationships between individuals specific pair: the ability to walk on the moon and and among large and small groups of human permanent peace on earth. To the wiser of those beings. Perhaps this curve would have an observ­ engaged in the discussion, both feats might have able, slightly positive slope designating improve­ appeared overly imaginative and impractical­ ment. But let us get to the third curve, the one conceivably realizable, but only a long, long time that represents scientific discovery, technological in the future. Startlingly, we have accomplished change, and the modifications of the way of life one. Not so startlingly, the other still remains as and the physical structure of civilization that before: conceivably realizable, but only a long, come from putting science and technological long time in the future. know-how to work. The ordinate would be But if the species has changed physically hard­ minuscule, relatively speaking, for all time until a ly at all and the allowed behavior of humans, few centuries ago; then, and particularly in the singly and in tribes, has been refined only slightly past several decades, the curve would shoot up over a thousand generations, our know ledge of steeply, almost vertically, and off the chart. the environment, of the anatomy of our bodies, No wonder we are experiencing the malaise, and of the means to put resources to work for our dislocations, and frustrations of an immense, health, material needs, and comforts has recently almost uncontrollable imbalance between rapidly exploded. In the past two centuries, our skills and accelerating technological advance and lagging tools have advanced more than in all the millions social progress. The more socially immature we of preceding years. The first scientific list of the are, the more difficult is our problem of social known elements was published by Lavoisier less adjustment to the still further advance of technol­ than 200 years ago. His list included about 20 ogy. Our failure to make a harmonious merging and, building on his giant step in understanding of advancing technology with parallel social prog­ the basic nature of matter, scientists quickly ress makes us a "disquiparant" society. In the added recognition of more chemical elements so theory of logic, a system is disquiparant if its de­ they now number over 100. Throughout all of finable, separate aspects lack a logical connec­ earlier recorded history, however, matter was tion. If technological developments are not thought to be made up of combinations of four marching in step with social goals, how can there elements: air, earth, water, and fire. be logic in our employment of technology? The changes that have occurred during recent Today a severe mismatch exists between the centuries in the organizational and behavioral high potential of technological advance and the aspects of human society are almost entirely low rate of social-political progress. The reason caused by the burgeoning of practical know-how. for this mismatch is not science and technology People and materiel can now be moved in hours per se. It is rather that our social organization from any point of the globe to any other. Elec­ cannot use these tools to the fullest. Critical and tronics can keep the nations of the entire earth in controlling are the interfaces between technology instantaneous communication. We feed, move, and such non-technological factors as setting inform, entertain. clothe. heal. and kill each goals, examining alternatives, and making bal­ other by means that did not exist two centuries anced decisions. These factors are not now being ago. Divide the peoples of the world into two managed, or they are being handled helter-skelter groups. one in which science and technology by people who lack un.derst~l).ding of the process.

14 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE I NOVE~1BER !'!XI In choosing where and how to apply science and advanced to black-and-white TV, then color TV, technology in America it would be helpful, for cable TV, and intercontinental TV by satellites. example, if we possessed clear national goals. To the early vacuum cleaners were added electric When we. find it hard to articulate and decide on dishwashers, garbage disposals, and washer­ what kind of society we want, it is understand­ dryers. We have found ways to collect, modify, ably difficult to pinpoint the effective use of sci­ and put to our use all matter of which we know ence and technology to help build it. Our society the universe to be composed and have synthesized is not an assembly of related, essential compo­ superior materials that do not appear in nature. nents integrated into a harmonious whole. We have created cities of weather-controlled Satisfactory decisions in any society cannot be structures and automated the mass production of made without an understanding of tradeoffs and physical goods. We are used to making low­ options. For instance, we should be in a position priced long-distance calls by direct dialing. We to compare the good or benefit that can come have learned to so control insects and fertilize the from specific technological advance against its ground as to grow far more food per acre than we bad qualities or its cost. As to our employment of can consume domestically. We have acquired technology, we can be likened to a group of inept nylon pantyhose, shatter-proof glass, frozen carpenters. Equipped with strong and ever sharper foods, and microwave ovens. A communication tools, they use them clumsily, often getting their satellite weighing one ton now provides more fingers in the saws, hitting each other's heads as channels of communication than 200,000 tons of they bring their hammers back and their own cable laid under the oceans. During one year, a thumbs as the hammers come down. They are not widebody airliner now moves more people back sure what they are trying to build. Confused, yet and forth across the ocean, at higher speed, than sensing an unsatisfactory situation from which the largest ocean liner a thousand times heavier they would like to extricate themselves, they could carry. One of today's hand-held computers meanwhile blame the tools. can make complex computations that at mid­ A short while ago we were confident that the century would have required equipment filling a quickest, surest route to the better life was to ac­ room, with the costs proportionate to the equip­ quire more scientific knowledge and expand our ment weights. technology base. Scientific and engineering ad­ In not too long a time into the future, we have vances were regarded as limitless sources of surmised, every individual will be able to push higher living standards. These disciplines of the buttons on a wristwatch transmitter to call out a human brain were on a high pedestal. If scientific digital code that will establish radio contact with research and technological development were not any other chosen person in the world. Soon our worshipped, at least the highest level of such telephones should provide accompanying sight of activity was revered and encouraged. To put sci­ those speaking, and our home TV should have a ence and technology at our service creatively and 3D picture. With advancing technology con­ efficiently, a melting-pot form of Yankee ingenu­ tinuing to produce more for us with less effort, ity, an assumed innate ingredient of all Amer­ we should go from a 40- to a 30- or even to a 20- icans, was envisioned as available and ever grow­ hour workweek. If we could walk on the moon in ing. From time to time we might have to suffer a the '70s, then it seemed Americans should soon depression, some incompetents or crooks in in­ be able to visit Mars. If we should find ourselves, fluential places, a penalizing war or an annoying number of persistent social problems, but we Americans believed we could count always on one strong and favorable characteristic of our country: our advancing technology would steadily originate new and better approaches to meeting every requirement of our lives and would furnish us with continuing physical enrichment. With more science and technology, we be­ lieved, we could do anything and ultimately would. And why should we not be so persuaded? In seemingly no time at all we had gone from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles, then to air­ planes, with ever higher speeds and comforts· such as four-speaker hi-fi in the cars and movies on the airplanes. Radio was invented and soon

15 a few decades from now, in contact with intelli­ fic snarls. They now think we wasted money gent life elsewhere in the universe, this will not going to the moon. The atom bomb may destroy be regarded as incredible. civilization and the nuclear reactor may poison Microbiologists have broken the genetic code the earth. We make our soil more productive but and begun pinning down the subtle distinctions insecticides may do us in. The pill makes it easier between inanimate and living matter. We can to control the size of our families, but it promotes overhaul the human heart and provide artificial promiscuous sex among the young and is destroy­ kidneys. Vaccines have wiped out smallpox and ing the institution of the family. Many believe the polio while penicillin has curbed other diseases. computer is creating an automated robot society Surely, then, a crash program to cure cancer in which humans become slaves as digitalized ought to be successful, we assumed. Soon we signals and taped responses take over the society should complete our conquest of disease, learn and personal privacy and freedom are lost. how to control aging, and perhaps even be able to It is not helpful to judge those holding these use science and technology to alter the human views to be a minority of extremists or, at best, species. careless listers of negatives who foolishly disre- . But if it was only yesterday when science and gard the vast positives of science and technology. technology were adored as deities by the throngs It is now clear to everyone that scientific research - we could do no wrong no matter how avidly and technological implementations won't solve we applied these tools - it is only this morning every problem and fill all needs. More powerful we discovered the gods may be devils. An anti­ military weapons do not guarantee a peaceful technology wave has broken over us. A substan­ world. No technological advances have come tial fraction of our citizens now suddenly equate along to give us a lasting, plentiful supply of advancing technology with evil. As they perceive cheap, pollution-free energy to replace dwindling it, mass production jammed us into congested domestic petroleum and counter OPEC monopo­ cities before we learned how to live together. To lies. We truly are impairing the environment and them TV means vapid, violence-loaded programs running out of certain resources. These and other that miseducate our children. Gasoline refineries, facts about the present technological society are needed to supply the automobiles, ruin the en­ matters of legitimate concern. The nation is now vironment; those same automobiles, they note aware that dis-benefits generally accompany all with revulsion, kill 80,000 people a year, foul the human efforts to produce benefits. Any country air, and force us to spend hours each day in traf- that understands this and yet fails to compare in­ telligently the gains and the accompanying harms deserves to have its policies protested. Such crit­ icism is not unpatriotic and should be welcomed as a necessary prelude to realizing reforms that will adjust democracy and make it work in our technological era. The desirability of carrying on large-scale re­ search and development to accelerate further tech­ nological ad vance has become a controversial issue in the nation. Trends previously assumed to be clearly for the betterment of society are being challenged by new value judgments. Lower GNP (gross national product) is justified, some aver, if that goes with fewer cancer deaths, cleaner air, less congestion and noise, and a life with less pressure. In trying to find the right values, we are being forced to realize that there is no single truth to lead us to them. How do we arrive at limits on our rights to alter the world with technology? We interfere with nature when we dam up a stream or provide a heart transplant or drive an automobile and release its exhaust into the atmosphere or build pipelines or buildings or factories or sewer systems. When is what we do with technology a boon to mankind and when a detriment? Even the smartest people can't answer !ttis query'with an

16 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE I NOVEMBER 1981 all-embracing guiderule. The difference between badly numerous non-technological decisions, we a wise map and a fool on this question is that the easily can have inflation, recession, high unem­ wise man kIlOWS that the values on which the ployment, wars, and other ills. Without a strong answer can be based are not absolute, constant, technological foundation, our minimum needs and unique; they vary with people, situations, and cannot be satisfied. Yet advances in science and time. technology are not by themselves sufficient. They But if the omnipresence of rapid technological are merely necessary. development is in part an evil, is it perhaps a Until very recently, we Americans took for necessary evil? Do we have a practical alternative granted that our country is the world leader in to the technological society? Is it realistic to ban technology. This went hand-in-hand with our or even to greatly diminish technological ad­ thinking we have the highest living standards in vance? Is such a cutback too penalizing to accept the world and are first in almost every scientific for the American &ociety because our values and feat. It is true that some 20 years ago, when the social structures are so strongly based on a gener­ Soviet Union sneakily abandoned the role of a ous availability of the fruits of employing these technologically backward nation we had envis­ disciplines? Experienced politicians assure us that aged for it and launched the first Sputnik, our no approach to our social and economic problems confidence was shaken. However, by sending is politically viable if it contemplates the majority men to walk on the moon while the Russians of citizens accepting a significantly reduced sup­ were having difficulty merely landing instruments ply of goods and services. H is equally unrealistic there, we demonstrated to the world we were still politically to expect those now disadvantaged to champions. abandon their aspirations for the higher living But today we no longer can assume we are standards the majority enjoy. If these are political ahead. Contrary indications are all about us in the truths, then the tools of science and technology form of European and Japanese cars on our streets must be kept sharp and applied vigorously be­ and foreign-made television sets and tape record­ cause such action is indispensable for a feasible ers in our homes. We are lagging badly in other approach to national problems. fields and being overtaken in some areas where While some want less technological develop­ we still have a lead. Evidence is building that ment and more rules to regulate and minimize it, these trends are the result of some fundamental others are pointing to the available statistics and patterns that cannot be changed overnight. The agonizing over evidence that America has de­ United States, a country that previously had out­ veloped a serious technology slip. They argue stripped the rest of the world in producing goods that we are realizing too little of what scientific and services for its citizens, has suddenly become and technological advance could yield. These highly concerned about its ability to go on provid­ advocates of more scientific research and speedier ing a plentiful flow. More than just a handful of technological development consider that survival pessimists are asking whether the nation's store of of the human race requires these extensions and resources and systems for deciding and doing applications. They think we need to choose be­ things are up to the job of further increasing our tween two options: one, a reasonably attractive living standards or even preserving the present and safe, albeit not perfect, environment with level in the years ahead. adequate but not infinite provisions for the human Have we lost our innovative ability and motiva­ beings on earth; or the other, social instability, tion? We enjoyed remarkable advantages over deep human misery, collapse of national econo­ competitive nations in the century now ending. mies, and wars based on scarcity of resources. Maybe our organizations and habits of behavior They think the choice is easy. The real issue to were suited to the past but do not fit the future. them is how to use science and technology more Our presently decreased reaping of technological fully, not whether to do so. innovations suggests inadequate sowing some Of course, when we speak here of putting tech­ years earlier. The total United States expenditures nology to work fully we do not mean the unthink­ on research and development are a decreasing ing application of it, the misuse of technology on fraction of our GNP while in Germany and Japan projects the public does not in the end really want that ratio is increasing . We are investing less in and that are more harmful than beneficial. Prob­ improving our facilities, again as a fraction of our lems of selection and organization arise here. GNP, here off badly from the other developed na­ Furthermore, even if we were to attain perfection tions. No wonder our rate of productivity increase in the choice and implementation of technological has now dwindled to small oscillations around programs we still would not be guaranteed a heal­ zero and is below that of all other developed thy economy and a happy society. If we handle countries. continued on page 30

17 Call1ping In

THE process of acquiring a higher education is punctuated with rites of passage - the getting from one status in life to another. For Caltech's freshmen the journey begins with reg­ istration, followed by getting away from it all for two and a half days of orientation to Institute people and traditions at Camp Fox on Catalina Island. That step begins with boarding a bus on Hill Avenue next to the Athenaeum at 7 a.m. on a Thursday morning in late September. Once at camp, every­ body gets a chance to carry his or her luggage to an assigned sleeping space, as Chris Wood, assistant dean of students, demonstrates. For the next 48 hours there's lots of listening to speeches, including the always popular descriptions of the geology of the island and of California. One of those speeches was given by Tom Ahrens, professor of geophysics. THE program isn't all speeches by any means. There's a chance to sun yourself on the sandy - er, rocky - beach, and having a hands-on experience with live marine specimens caught and brought to camp by Wheeler North, pro­ fessor of environmental engineering science. You can take a man- or woman­ powered boat ride, do some one­ on-one getting acquainted, or par­ ticipate in the talent show. THERE'S also tossing a frisbee, the in­ terested presence of David Wales, dean of students, and finally, taking the ferry back to the mainland - a trip on which you can watch the world go by or rest up before getting into it for the next four years at Caltech. AT THE age of 71, when moSt men have been comfortably retired for years, John An Interview with Robinson Pierce is energetically into his third career. Retired since 1980 from his second career at Caltech (he is now pro­ by Paul J. Nahin John R. Pierce fessor emeritus of engineering), Pierce is chief technologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, operated by Caltech for NASA in Pasadena. To this role Pierce brings decades of experience as both a re­ search engineer and corporate executive at The Bell Telephone Laboratories. Born in Des Moines, Iowa, in 1910, Pierce graduated from Caltech in 1933 with a degree in electrical engineering, and stayed on to take a master's in 1934 and a doctorate in 1936 in the same field. From then until his first retirement in 1971, he was employed at Bell Labs, finishing with the title of executive direc­ tor of research, Communications Sciences Division. Even while busy at this deman­ ding job, however, he bccasionally found time to publish science fiction stories. The first appeared in a 1930· issue of Science Wonder Stories, and nearly two dozen more followed over the years (many at a time when to write speculative fiction wasn't nearly as "respectable" for scien­ tists as it is today). Pierce's skill with words isn't limited to fiction. He has written a large number of scholarly papers and books, mostly in the broad area of electronic communication devices and systems, and has made many important contributions to this field. His 1975 IEEE [Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers] Medal of Honor was awarded in part, for example, in rec­ ognition of his many innovative ideas in the design of high gain, large band­ width traveling wave tubes, which in tum helped to make satellite communications practical. His 1950 book, Traveling Wave Tubes, sits on the shelves of thousands of micro­ wave engineers, worldwide. A more re­ cent one, Symbols, Signals, and Noise, an introduction to information theory and electronic communications for laymen, is considered a classic of its kind. He is co­ author-of a new work, a textbook called Introduction to Communication Science and Systems, released last year by Plenum Press. It is based on his undergraduate teaching experiences at Caltech. Pierce is now at work on yet another book (with the working title Science and Musical Sounds) that reflects his long-time interest in the generation of synthetic sounds by digital computers. During a recent visit withPletce at his

22 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE I NOVEMBER 1981 Japanese-style home in Pasadena (com­ years, and aJso of Rockefeller University. tical, it is worthwhile to understand Max­ plete with reflecting pool and waterfali),l Also Lloyd Berkner, the radio pioneer and well's equations simply for the good of heard him hold forth on a wide range of Antarctic explorer. his soul." Many other mathematicians serious and.speculative topics. One of the I found that they had been inspired by and scientists who have also been struck questions I asked him was how he came to [Hugo] Gernsback, both by his science with the elegant simplicity and beauty of be an electrical engineer rather than, say, fiction and by his Electro-Importing Com­ the way Nature works have speculated it a physicist' or a mathematician. pany that sold them radio parts when they just couldn't all be an accident. That is, were young. Indeed, at my suggestion, in the universe has to be the handiwork of a Pierce: Originally, when I went to Cal­ Gernsback's later days, Detlev Bronk higher spirit, a "God." Do you go that tech, the only technical person I knew was called Gernsback and told him of this, far? the father of a friend of mine who was a which greatly pleased Gernsback. chemical engineer. So I thought I would Pierce: It's wonderful to admire Max­ be a chemist or a chemical engineer. Nahin: The Cornell pop astronomer, well's equations, but a little presumptuous Freshman chemis(r\j cured me of that. It writer, and newly emergent TV star, Carl to bring God into it. Mathematics is just a was disastrous, especially in the labora­ Sagan, has said that science fiction does a game that people have made up and play. tory. And then, since I was building and good job of attracting youngsters to sci­ Unlike other games, say chess, it happens flying gliders, I thought l'd be an aero­ ence, but not in sustaining that attraction. to be one that often can be related to the nautical engineer. But in drafting my let­ Do you have any reply to that? physical world. That's very natural, of tering was poor, and moreover we drew course, becwse mathematics had its ori­ Pierce: I think that an attraction is neces­ endless beams with rivets. So I looked for gins in very practical things, like building sary. But a sustained interest in science or some sort of engineering that wasn't full and surveying. technology or engineering requires some­ of rivets. I became an electrical engineer. Not all mathematics is like that today, thing of the individual. That he do some­ I didn't become a physicist because in however, Modem mathematicians just thing, rather than just passively read. the catalog there was a language require­ love games with abstract rules that live all Many individuals are disinclined or inca­ ment that apparently would have debarred by themselves. That way they don't have pable of doing anything. It's often re­ me. I found electrical engineering, which to be physicists too! marked that children show a great deal of was largely power engineering in those curiosity and adults don't - most adults. Nahin: In his book, The Character of days, not to my liking. But there was one The popular explanation of this is that Physical Law, Caltech's Nobel prize­ professor on the faculty, name of Stuart something is done to the children to kill Mackeown, whose field was electronics. I winning physicist Richard Feynman says their curiosity. gravitated in that direction, taught a radio he believes that C. P. Snow's "two cul­ I think it may be that some children are engineering course out of Terman's book tures" are separated into people who when I was a graduate student, and Mackeown got me a job at Bell Laboratories. My electrical engineering courses were "Science fiction bears the same relation to the about rotating machinery. The only ro­ tating machinery I ever saw at the Bell world of science and technology that Laboratories was the fan in my office. I was put to work on vacuum tubes, of legends of the saints do to the Christian religion" which I knew nothing. From there on chance took over. I didn't find electrical engineering narrow and dull. It just went from one thing to another. curious and find curiosity rewarding be­ have, and those who haven't, experienced cause they're capable of learning and find­ an understanding of mathematics well Nahin: Did science fiction playa role in ing something out. So they continue to be enough to appreciate the machinery of Na­ your decision to become an engineer? curious. Other children are curious, but. ture. Do you feel there is a widening gulf never carry through the curiosity to re­ Pierce: Oh, yes, I'm sure it did! It excited between those who understand technology solving anything, and so they don't find me. I remember that after the first year of and those who don't? curiosity rewarding. Amazing Stories I could look at the annual Pierce: Yes, and it may be because tech­ It is the same, I think, with reading sci­ index and remember what each story was nology is getting more complicated. ence fiction. It inspires some people to go about. I thought that this was science and and find out what science really is. Just as Nahin: Do you think people are more self­ technology, in those days. I now realize it legends of the lives of the saints have indulgent now? was really a sort of fantasy. It bears the probably inspired some people to become same relation to the world of technology Pierce: Yes. I do feel many people don't truly religious. For others it's just amuse­ and science that legends of the saints do to want to think anymore in the organized ment and they pass on to something else. the Christian religion. and disciplined way you must in the natu­ But it's very inspirational. I have Nahin: You've mentioned religion several ral sciences. Today, for many people, is a known so many people in whose lives sci­ times. To pursue that just a bit, in your day for "feeling your own vibes" or ence fiction played an important part. book Electrons, Waves and Messages, you "being yourself." It's not a day for hard Detlev Bronk, who was president of the wrote, "To anyone who is motivated by effort for people who work outside of National Academy of Sciences for many anything beyond the most narrowly prac- technology.

13 Technology, itself, may be partly to them for practical faster-than-light or time somebody once pointed out that maybe blame for this. Less than 15 percent of the travel. There are certain paradoxical the reason we don't hear from anybody population produce all the goods of soci­ things that can happen on a very small else is because everybody's listening and ety. All the rest do rather abstract jobs, scale. Science fiction writers want faster­ nobody's transmitting! and are far away from the things technol­ than-light travel because they find it con­ As to faster-than-light travel, that im­ ogy deals with effectively. venient to use other solar systems and plies time travel, too, if you believe in civilizations in telling moral or adventur­ relativity, and time travel has paradoxes. Nahin: Did the use of a pen-name, "J. J. ous tales. When Samuel Johnson wrote At the moment I don't believe in faster­ Coupling," for your science fiction have Rasselas, he could set it in Abyssinia be- than-light travel because relativity seems so simple and true. It follows from very direct and basic arguments and experi­ ments. But I won't rule faster-than-light out, and I would hate to see it disappear "I picked up the pen name J. J. Coupling from science fiction. All of space opera from the letterhead of the would be gone! As to the isolation of Man, that is not Institute for Useless Research" inevitable. Way back, Robert Heinlein, who is a great hero of mine, wrote a story called "Universe." It was about a science fiction Noah's Ark. It is perfectly con­ ceivable to have huge space ships that are anything to do with a concern about how cause no one knew anything about Abys­ self-sufficient worlds and that travel for that sort of writing might affect your tech­ sinia. When Voltaire wrote Candide, he generations. But not now. Not for many, nical image? had all sorts of strange goings-on in the many years. The time for the telegraph Pierce: No. When I started writing arti­ Americas. wasn't ancient Greece even though much cles for Astounding, rather than stories, I But now all of our planet has been ex­ of the beginning work for it was done used a pen-name because there was a re­ plored. There's no place on Earth about then. In the same way, the time is not lease procedure for technical material which to write romantic fantasy under the right for travel to the stars. It will come. written at Bell Laboratories. What I was guise of possible fact. So the science fic­ Nahin: You once wrote, "Computers look writing had nothing to do with Bell Labor­ tion writers have been driven out of the silly only when someone tries to make atories work, or very little, and I saw no solar system, almost. Some, like John them walk on their hind legs and beg to be reason to go through this tedious proce­ Varley, still use the planets of our system, recognized. There should be a Society for dure. So I chose a pen-name. but most others have fled to the far cor­ the Prevention of Cruelty to Computers to ners of the universe. This is a sort of crisis. The name ''J, J. Coupling" comes deal with this abuse." In general, you from atomic physics. r didn't know what Many science fiction writers are caught seem to be quite negative about work in it meant when r chose it, and I'm a little in the past. They think the exploration of artificial intelligence, once having equated uncertain now. Bill Shockley and Jim space is going to be like the discovery of the development of computer algorithms Fisk, who later became president of Bell the New World by Columbus. They think for handling natural languages with the Laboratories, had, while at MIT, founded Man himself will do it. I think it will be discovery of the Philosopher's Stone. Isn't the Institute for Useless Research. They automatic machines that will do it, like that a funny position for a science fiction had a letterhead printed. The president of Voyager. As far as I can see, the future writer who thinks machines will explore the Institute was [saac Neutron and the just passed up these science fiction writ­ space? ers, and still does. Man is a terrible secretary was J. J. Coupling. I just picked Pierce: Yes, but then I'm not a full-time encumbrance in space, but it is a natural the name up from the letterhead of the science fiction writer. I've often been environment for a machine. A lot of sci­ Institute for Use1e'is Research. asked when computers will be better than ence fiction seems not to have recognized Nahin. Science fiction lJses some Man. I always respond that from the very this. seemingly impossible technical devices to first moment computers have been better help put stories in a "sense of wonder" Nahin: To pursue the faster-than-light than Man at a lot of things. It's only when setting. Some of these. like faster-than­ question, if we can't achieve it then Man you ask them to do ridiculous things that light tripq across gal.axies, have recently will be isolated in his local region of they look bad. been discussed as being accomplished space, and that bothers a lot of people. It You can liken a computer to an air­ with the aid of black hole,. And profes­ has become almost a theological issue - plane. A bird is just wonderful. So is a sional scientists who are also SF writers, if there really is a benevolent God, then 747. But a 747 doesn't land on a tree. like Robert Forward of Hughes and Greg­ such a cruel fate just couldn't be. And if you insist that flying machines flap ory Benford at the University of Califor­ Pierce: Let me make a preliminary com­ their wings and land on trees, you'll get nia, have written about time travel in a ment. Some of the people who don't be­ very poor flying machines. near serious manner. Do you think faster­ lieve in faster-than-light travel are very Nahin: And dangerous ones, toof than-light space drives and time travel can interested in SET! (search for extraterres­ Pierce: Yes. Just like people, computers ever really happen') trial intelligence). Myoid friend Bernard should have jobs they're good at. Pierce: My authority on black holes is Oliver, at Hewlett-Packard [vice president I'm an engineer. I believe it's more im­ John Wheeler, and he doesn't believe in for research], is one. That's all right, but porta~t to get the jO,l::! done than to be ele-

24 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE / NOVEMBER 1981 gant. It's good to be elegant, certainly, things. It made the front page of the New The rockets that have actually launched but the bottom line i, that it's gotta work! York Times. It hit the people at AT&T, all the commercial satellites are military As far as und(;r~tanding how the human and that led to Telstar. derivatives of the Atlas, and the Thor, brain works, it's the biologists and which became the Delta, and the Titan. Nahin: It is no secret that NASA has had psychologists who'll do that, not the NASA has persisted in believing that the a public relations problem, and hasn't artificial hltelligence people. Here's a way to appeal to the public is Man in really succeeded in convincing the Amer­ quote for E&S: "Artificial intelligence is Space. I think this has been an unhappy ican people that its charter is essential to real stupidity." 1'1] admit it's only a half­ decision. It's a good thing to work to­ the country. Recently the agency's head, tfutb, but still, it's at least half true. ward, but you do that by improving tech­ Robert Frosch, resigned over a failure to nology. You don't do it by an all-out drive Nahin: In your 1968 book, The Begin­ get the budget it needs. As a person in­ to replace all the unmanned launch vehi­ nings of Satellite Communications, you timately involved in the operation of a cles, which have been so useful, with a wrote, "I wonder why I did not think of NASA lab, what do you think the future manned vehicle where success and econ­ satellite communication,. I believe that I holds for our ~pace exploration program? omy are so hard to attain. JUS! did not take space seriously, as Arthur Pierce: That depends on the health of the Nahin: As a final question, what technical C. Clarke had in proposing communica­ country, materially and mentally. As far developments do you see in our future? tions satellites in 1945: I read science as I'm concerned, one of the few good fiction, and I wrote science fiction. I liked . things that happened during the Carter Pierce.' The area that is really taking off to talk about space travel - but I did not administration was Voyager. It caught the now is biological science, with wonderful really see that space was near enough to attention of people, and it was a cheerful new advances coming almost daily in be of serious concern. " And yet, Clarke thing. It buoyed people up. America did things like genetic engineering of bacteria. himself wrote the preface to your book something that everyone admires. Coun­ In electronics I think the very large scale and honored your contributions, and at tries have to do some things beyond what integration of circuits is most exciting, least one recent book on communication is of day-to-day use. But of course the un­ and I could go on almost endlessly listing electronics does credit you with proposing manned space program has done things of what that implies. But let me be some­ satellite communications in 1955. Is there day-to-day use too. It does them for the what more philosophical instead. some mix-up here, or are you being modest, or. . .? Pierce: No, science fiction and space were one side of my thought, and before Sputnik and Explorer went up, I used to "J look for a digital future, but the go around giving talks about space and thing that concerns me most about it is not space travel. I used pictures taken from V-2s which had been refurbished in this privacy but accountability" country. Then, in 1954, the Princeton sec­ tion of the IEEE - it was the IRE [Insti­ tute of Radio Engineers] then, of course - asked me to give a talk on a space topic. military in surveillance of the Soviet I look for a digital future, one in which That woke me up. I thought that this Union, it does them in navigation through the world will be much more under the in­ man-in-space stuff, which is as old as NA VSAT and through the Global Posi­ dividmil's control. People, today, who Kepler or even older - remember Cyrano tioning System, it takes pictures that are comment on the future for a living, keep de Bergerac? - wasn't quite the right useful in exploring for resources and for talking about privacy, and things like thing. I wondered what I could say that monitoring the weather. electronic snooping in personal data files. would be more serious. Since I was in­ If the country gets out of its doldrums, But the thing that concerns me most about terested in communications, I thought of it can afford other less immediately useful the digital age is accountability. As T. S. communication satellites. I didn't think of things. Certainly, the poor will always be Eliot said in "The Rock," them as my idea. I hadn't yet read Arthur with us, but one doesn't live by bread Where is the Life we lost in living? Clarke's article. Satellites were just in the alone. I regard this as a time in which the Where is the wisdom we have lost in air (figuratively speaking!) and I thought country wastes billions of dollars because knowledge? everyone had thought of communication we have so many Mammon worshippers Where is the knowledge we have lost in satellites. who think they can cure any ill by spend­ information? My job wasn't to invent them, but to ing a lot of money. That just isn't so. In And I add, where is the information we analyze their possibilities. So I gave the their ill-conceived way Mammon worship­ have lost in data? The government collects talk, and later I was asked to write it up pers overlook opportunities that could huge amounts of indigestible figures that don't mean anything to anyone, and for publication. This got me thinking, but push Man's capabilities ahead, as I be­ spends billions doing so. Future develop­ there wasn't anything to do about com­ lieve the unmanned space program does. ments in computers could turn this around munication satellites then because there NASA has a problem because Apollo and let the individual have meaningful was no way to put anything up. When went over so big. Well, Apollo was a access to these large data resources. Sputnik went up and Explorer went up, I dead-end in some ways. We'll not build Before they get manipulated in unknown thought this was the time to do something. such big and expensive rockets as Saturn ways by unknown people with unknown That led to Echo, and Echo did several V for a very long time to come. motivations. D

25 Research in Progress

The bar graphs below illustrate how the market price of a homogeneous product changes as a function of the percentage (among all buyers) of shoppers who compare prices. From left to right the graphs represent a decreasing percentage of shoppers. Shopping Around

':fL"" 40 " J 20 How much do consumers need to know to o j --'- ~--~-'~7- make intelligent decisions when purchas­ ing goods or services? How much is enough consumer information to keep sellers honest without government inter­ Case 1: Percent of shoppers sufficient to keep Case 2: Percent of shoppers lower than case 1, all firms charging the competitive price of $3. but still enough to keep most firms charging vention? Recent trends in consumer pro­ competitive prices. tection legislation have been based on the assumption that buyers need to know more facts than unregulated markets pro­ vide or to have them explained in a sim­ ple, uniform way to prevent sellers from isted in the area, and what did exist was kets in which every firm sells exactly the taking advantage of them. Otherwise, reg­ buried in specialized mathematical jour­ same thing, and all the characteristics of ulation would be needed because competi­ nals. Schwartz and Wilde set out to pro­ the product are observable. Money, for in­ tive markets wouldn't work right if con­ vide a theoretical basis for the study of stance, is a "product" of this type and &~mers were not well informed. this sort of market behavior and make it one that is also heavily regulated. When \ Perhaps - but perhaps not, say Alan accessible not only to economic theorists the Truth in Lending Act was passed in Scl~artz, Caltech professor of law and but also in practical applications to the 1968, there was much debate about how socia~ science (and the Maurice Jones Jf. people who are responsible for regulatory much consumer information was neces­ Profe~$or of Law at the University of interventions into markets. With theoreti­ sary to keep interest rates at a competitive Southe~ California), and Louis Wilde, cal models of market behavior available, level. According to their model for homo­ associate professor of economics, who lawmakers could look at a real-world geneous goods, Schwartz and Wilde have have been jointly investigating the effects situation and see if the features of a func­ reason to believe that sufficient numbers of imperfect information on markets. The tioning competitive market were present. of people were already shopping for credit unusual collaboration between these two If they were, the large costs of regulation and that the disclosure law was probably arose after Schwartz, who is a specialist in could be saved; if they were not, then unnecessary. Credit. consumers' awareness contract law, discovered that a proper perhaps some regulation would be neces­ levels have risen since the law was analysis of existing and proposed statutes sary. Initial results from Schwartz and enacted, but this hasn't affected the rates regulating certain consumer product and Wilde's work indicate that market dys­ of interest they are actually paying. Reg­ financial markets required a sophisticated function may happen much less often than ulation here has apparently not improved knowledge of economic theory. Coinci­ previously thought. on the competitive market. dently, Wilde's main interest as an econ­ With support from the National Science Another Schwartz-Wilde model con­ omist happened to be information theory. Foundation, the two Caltech researchers cerns those products that differ from firm These two argue that most consumer have constructed mathematical models of to firm not only in price "but also in qual­ protection laws have been passed or pro­ markets that describe how different mixes ity, but all of whose features can still be posed without any real knowledge on the of shoppers and nonshoppers combine observed by consumers before purchase. part of lawmakers of how markets really with the technical characteristics of a mar­ Warranties, for example, differ greatly do behave when buyers don't know every­ ket to yield various configurations of among firms, but a buyer can discover the thing there is to know - when their in­ prices. features of the warranty by reading the formation is imperfect. The problem was Their first model dealt with homo­ contract. The Federal Trade Commission that no one knew; very little theory ex- geneous "search" products, that is, mar- regulates warranties' on th~ assumption

26 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE / NOVEMBER 1981 that consumers}lave difficulty comparing isting regulation may actually be working used to discern features that aren't im­ the quality of guarantees. Although the to the consumer's disadvantage. mediately observable and services that in­ Caltech research has not yet been finished In all of their model building so far, volve diagnosis - by doctors or auto for publication, preliminary findings sug­ Schwartz and Wilde have had to rely on mechanics, for example. They also hope gest that the FTC may be going about others' sometimes inappropriate data on to look at the impact that new com­ consumer protection from the wrong angle shopping patterns to test their theories. munication technology (for example, when it forces firms to adhere to specific They are applying for additional NSF making all the grocery prices in Pasadena warranty disclosures. Schwartz and funds to do their own empirical testing in available on a home TV screen) might Wilde', mode}" seem to indicate that real and experimental markets, so that have on consumer decisions. Because this firms often may not exploit consumer they can state their findings more conclu­ kind of market doesn't yet exist, their ignorance by offering low-'quality guaran­ sively. In addition they plan to pursue empirical work in this matter will rely ex­ tees, but rather by raising their prices to models of other market situations, such as clusively on laboratory experiments. 0 noncompetitive levels. In such a case, ex- those involving products that have to be -J.D.

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Case 3: Percent of shoppers substantially be­ Case 4: Few shoppers; no firms charge $3; Case 5: No shoppers; allfirms charge monopo­ low case 1 .. half of the firms charge noncom­ prices begin to cluster near the monopoly price ly price of $7. petitive prices. of$7.

Tracking Smog

SMOG, like fine scotch and steaks, mayar­ leaves the Los Angeles basin, how much rive already aged (or, like old bread, of the smog goes into the mountains, and stale) for residents of the San Gabriel Val­ where and how long it affects the desert. ley foothills and the low deserts east and Funded by a $250,000 grant from the southeast of Los Angeles. The first quan­ California Air Resources Board, the re­ titative data concerning this finding searchers released sulfur hexafluoride, an emerged from a tracer gas study con­ inert, harmless gas, from nine points in ducted during the summer by Professor of the Los Angeles basin and surrounding Chemical Engineering Fred Shair and a mountain passes. They then measured the group of students - the Caltech "track­ concentrations in air samples collected in ing team." a 60,000-square-mile area ranging from They found that the San Gabriel Moun­ the China Lake Naval Weapons Center to tains do not act as a barrier to smog; they the Mexican border and from the Pacific merely redirect a portion of it. As a result Ocean to the Colorado River. This is the of the study, communities in the foothills largest such field study undertaken to and low deserts will have to reconsider date. former assumptions on the sources of their Detecting these low-level concentra­ ozone-level peaks and in particular the tions over such a large area was made ratio of "old versus new" smog that they possible by a breakthrough in the design experience daily. of an electron-capture gas chromatograph The four-week-Iong field study, part of that can rapiclly and accurately measure a a year-long investigation (with Meteorolo­ gas in concentrations as small as one part "Tracking" team members Lillemor Hastrup gy Research, Inc., an Altadena consulting in a trillion. The electron-capture detector and Eric Chang collect air samples in the field firm, as co-investigator), was aimed at de­ had been invented in 1960 by British and replace syringes for the next test. termining where the smog-carrying wind chemist James Lovelock, who in the early

27 1970s was a consultant on the Viking The first test started with a release of totally locally generated; Shair's study in­ Lander project at JPL. Shair, along with tracer gas at Culver City on a morning dicates that this assumption needs to be Lovelock and Peter Simmonds, then of when the wind at Glendale was coming re-examined. IPL, developed the detector into a small, from the southeast. The wind then carried Military concern about decreased portable instrument for use in the field. the gas on a variety of routes. Initial visibility in the desert was an additional Shair also recognized its applicability to analysis showed that 30 percent of it impetus for the study, and personnel at investigating transport and dispersion headed directly east, missing Pasadena, Edwards and Norton Air Force Bases and associated with complex flows, and he barely touching Azusa, and then traveling the China Lake Naval Weapons Center and students from his freshman chemical past Banning. The larger portion - about cooperated in the research. Also involved engineering class conducted the pilot ex­ 65 percent - flowed northward into the in the wide-ranging project were teams periment in tracking smog in 1973. San Fernando Valley; some of it then con­ from Washington State University, The Los Angeles desert-impact study tinued through the San Fernando Pass into UCLA, Santa Fe Research Corporation, was conducted during July, a typically the Antelope Valley. From there some. of JPL, and the Environmental Protection smoggy month that usually exhibits winds the tracer continued on through Needles. Agency. and other meteorological conditions favor­ Most of it, however, headed east and then Shair's investigation exonerates Los able to the transport of smog out into the southeast, making its main impact in the Angeles from polluting the skies over Chi­ desert. Shair and his team of students re­ Coachella Valley. The most surprising na Lake. Most of the degradation of visi­ leased the sulfur hexafluoride gas into the route was that taken by a portion of the bility over China Lake is associated with air at nine sites (each on a different day) tracer gas that was apparently driven from smog transported from the southern San in downtown Los Angeles, the San Fer­ the Antelope Valley back into the San Joaquin Valley over the Tehachapi Moun­ nando Valley, the San Gabriel and San Gabriels and down through the mountain tains, says Shair. He and his field study Bernardino Mountain passes, and further canyons, sloshing the next day into a five­ team have previously conducted tracer gas out in the desert. Each release involved mile-wide zone in the foothills of the San studies of this area as well as the Salinas about 100 pounds of the gas per hour for Gabriel Valley. It arrived at the same time Valley, the Sacramento Valley, the Sac­ four hours. Air samples were then col­ that the ozone levels there began to peak. ramento River Delta regIon, and the Santa lected in small plastic syringes in 30 dif­ The study calls into question the inter­ Barbara Channel. An earlier study of land ferent stationary locations and by mem­ pretation of ozone profiles in the foothills and sea breezes off the El Segundo coast bers of the study team conducting tra­ and low deserts. Tracer gas from a single of Los Angeles gave the first quantitative verses in cars and airplanes. The portable release was picked up three times (twice information regarding the transport and analysis system allowed monitoring of the on the first day and once on the following dispersion associated with a "Y0- Yo" tracer gas in the field continuously so that day) in some areas in the Coachella Val­ effect. Although night breezes blew ele­ planes and cars could be redirected to fol­ ley. Towns such as Indio do often have vated industrial pollution in that area out low it. About 3,000 air samples were col­ multiple ozone peaks in a day, but it had to sea, morning winds brought virtually lected during each test. been assumed that some of them were 100 percent of it back over the land at ground level, affecting a coastal zone from Ventura to Corona del Mar. In the current study Shair and his stu­ dents have analyzed 24,000 air samples in the laboratory and are now combining this information with pertinent air quality and meteorological data. The physical and mathematical descriptions that will emerge from these data will give air qual­ ity planners a more realistic picture of the transport and dispersion of Los Angeles pollutants as a basis for effecti ve clean air policy. D -J.D.

Ardi Chang types information into a digital in­ Caltech senior John King adjusts the flow tegrator to measure the concentration of tracer meter of the sulfur hexafluoride gas release sys­ gas in an air sample. tem.

28 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE / NOVEMBER 1981 toahi

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TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED An equal opportunity employer M/F Gods' Gifts or Devils' .Doings? stances, it is hard to exaggerate the impor­ vironment and preserve natural resources. tance or the difficulty of arranging for a On the other hand, we realize we need a . . . continued from page 17 higher rate of investment in technological plentiful supply of goods, energy, and ser­ innovation. Whether the problem is lower­ vices. We also feel intuitively that if we ing the cost of national security or increas­ lose the ability to provide well for ing productivity, the technological ad­ ourselves we are bound to become more vance route offers real hope for progress. dependent on other nations that exceed If the voters will not countenance a much our performance record. Then both the lower supply of goods, we must look for quality of our life and our freedom to con­ ways to increase that supply at the same trol it will diminish. While we struggle costs, that is, while using the same human with working out a better match between and physical resources. If resources are the potentials of advancing technology dwindling, we must learn how to make and the needs and wishes of our society, Some Americans believe the world is more resources available economically. inevitable competition with other nations changing much too rapidly. Others want There is only one way to have a generally affects us. Total isolation not being prac­ more and faster change. Everyone must higher standard of living and to enhance tical, our attempts to resolve our dilem­ agree technological advance is a forcing the availability of goods and services to mas are influenced by what the rest of the spearhead of change and that we are hav­ those now well below the average partak­ world does. ing great difficulty absorbing it. The er. This is by increasing the quantity and Imagine for a moment a planet with rapidity of technological advance - be­ quality of what we produce for each dollar only two nations, Country A and Country cause of our inability to adjust to it, real­ of cost to produce it - a natural role for B, each well endowed with human and ize its benefits, and minimize its negatives beneficial technological advance. natural resources. Also assume this two­ - is presenting us with dilemmas and crit­ Scientific research, if avidly pursued, nation world is a free one - money, ical choices. If stopping technological can discover new resources and teach us products, resources, technology, and labor advance is not practical because we need how to apply the laws of nature more are allowed to flow freely between the the gains it brings, if curbing it is unac­ effectively in using all resources. Ad­ two countries. Suppose that Country A ceptable for fear of risking the lowering vanced technology can be employed more gradually attains a superior, broader of living standards and security, if the broadly to develop economically and understanding of science and technology, negatives of technological advance and socially advantageous products whose is better organized to employ these tools, the growing shortage of resources are real manufacture would create new jobs to has greater productivity, and is more in­ and serious, then we are surely stuck. We fight unemployment. Further R&D effort novative. It discovers new ways to use re­ need to invent new policy-forming and de­ can lead us to superior methods for in­ sources, develops substitutes whenever cision-making techniques. creasing supply and lowering costs as a natural resources threaten to run out, low­ To illustrate, take the stubborn, ubiq­ counter to inflation, substitutes for mate­ ers the cost of manufacturing and distribu­ uitous problem of inflation. Ask the rials in short supply, and ways of acquir­ tion, invents means to diminish pollution average American citizen which problem ing raw materials and manufacturing for of the environment, and continually de­ should be rated as worse, inflation or the our needs with less harm to the environ­ signs and brings out new products that are penalties of rapid technological advance, ment. socially and economically superior. It is and inflation would surely be named as Now if, as some say, too much tech­ generally more skillful and mature in the curse we most need to eliminate. But nological development is inundating us matching what science and technology the two phenomena, inflation and advanc­ with hazards and detriments, then the make possible to the needs and desires of ing technology, are related. Indeed, the present United States trend of slowing the population. strengths of technology can be used to technology advance compared with some With these assumptions, we know what fight inflation. In this instance, inflation is other nations could be a blessing. If we will happen. The citizens of both nations the dragon. Technology, sometimes a could rightfully equate technological ad­ will prefer the products of Country A be­ positive and at other times a negative vance to ruination of the environment and cause they will be cheaper and yet of bet­ force, can serve here as the good knight. to a bad life generally, not a better one, ter quality and more suited to their needs. To see how, let us first grant that a then we should applaud our failure to de­ The industries of Country A will prosper sound approach to curbing inflation in­ velop more rapidly technologically. Let and employment will be high there. The cludes limiting the expansion of the the other nations knock themselves out industries of Country B will be in depres­ money supply. The government must re­ producing more material things, having sion and its unemployment will risco Tem­ duce its spending to make possible politi­ the mere appearance of gain while actual­ porarily, Country B can maintain its stan­ cally acceptable conditions for curbing ly lowering their real living standards. dard of living by selling its country's monetary growth and as a political practi­ We, meanwhile, shall rise above such un­ assets, its land and raw material re­ cality must somehow achieve this reduc­ sophisticated, misconceived, harmful con­ sources, to the citizens of Country A. tion without greatly increasing unemploy­ tests. Country A will amass more capital, some ment. But the public insists upon the gov­ But such extreme rationalizations will of which will be used for these purchases: emment's supplying health, education, not satisfy the majority of Americans. Soon Country A will set up, own, and welfare, and numerous other services, and True, we have all become familiar with operate plants in Country B. Some of a strong national defense. This vehemence the word "ecology." We all know the Country B' s workers may go live in makes the reducing of government spend­ goals of life are not met by high produc­ Country A, where employment opportuni­ ing a near miracle. Under these circum- tion totals alone. We must protect our en- ties are better. In time, Co~ntryB,Hke an

30 ENGINEERING & SCIENCE! NOVEMBER 1981 underdeveloped copntry, will supply low­ winning a science olympics of discoveries different and less sensible questions. We er wage labor for low technology prod­ and breakthroughs over other nations. seek here rather to inquire whether our ucts, descend to a lower standard of liv­ However, if other nations excel on a scientific and technological know-how is ing, and be subservH:nt to Country A. broad enough front in science and technol­ being applied adequately where there is Let us alter our assumptions somewhat ogy, they will be the ones with the most evidence of high economic and social re­ toward political realism. As the trend we options to set a society pattern of their ward for the effort. If the American socie­ described begins to be felt deeply in choice. ty is not now making proper use of sci­ Country B, its citizens probably will elect How good and how bad for America is ence and technology tools, then why not? a government promising to create protec­ further advance of the technological age? Are we becoming slower, more timid, and tive barriers. These will keep out or tax By acceierating scientific research and less innovative in applying science and the products of Country A and restrict technological developments in the United technology? What stands in the way? Is foreign investment and takeovcrs. It will States. what do we gain and what do we Yankee ingenuity really disappearing? Is subsidize Country B' s industry when it is lose and how do the two compare? Is it in­ there something about the pattern, the seen to be failing and charge its citizens evitable thaI we become an even more rules, the organization of American socie­ high tariffs if they insist on the su­ technological society? Can we arrange to ty that is at fault here? Is our system of perior, foreign-made products of Country reap the positives, or most of them, and applying value judgments, making deci­ A. Country B can i~(Jlate itsclf as though eliminate the negatives, or most of those, sions and implementing them inadequate Country A did not cxbL Thc end rcsult, of further implementation of advanced for the technological society ahead? however, will not be much differcnt. technology? Must we in the United States Should it, must it, be changed? Country A, with its advancing technolo­ strive for a position of technological su­ In the competitive and highly interac­ gy, will have a rising living standard. periority or else lose out to other nations tive world society, advancing technology Country B, busily engaged in subsidizing that move faster technologically? cannot be halted, but the movement can its own backward technology industry. These questions suggest a summary be influenced. If we do not understand will produce less (and lower quality) prod­ question. Are we in the United States and work at properly employing techno­ ucts for its citizens to divide up. using science and technology to the fullest logical advance, our goals as a nation will Some in Country B may argue, "When on behalf of our society? This is not to ask not be met. We shall also then not make all is added up we have not lost. We have whether we are following up every clue to our proper, needed contribution to world benefited by not worshipping technology nature's undiscovered secrets and are social, economic, and political stability. as has Country A. Yes, we producc less, building every machine it is technically This will be damaging for America. It will but we have a simpler and bettcr way of possible to build. These latter are very be equally bad for the world. 0 life, one that is less dependent on advanc­ ing technology." But if Country A has been properly described as supcrior tech­ nologically, it will use technology in a thoroughly optimum manner and the crite­ rion for what is optimum will meet the COMPUTER SCIENCE value judgments of its citizenry. If Coun­ The Science and Technology Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) is seeking a few outstanding try A moves ahead unthinkingly instead computer scientists with in-depth knowledge of recent and, in producing increasing volumes of technical developments of potential importance for large products, spoils its environment and im­ military communications networks, including protocols, pairs the health of its citizens, then it packet communications techniques, and information (not would have to be reckoned as inferior, not data) processing as applied to C3 systems. superior, in its use of technology. The position requires a Ph.D. in computer science or Similarly, Country B, defined as in­ electrical engineering or the equivalent in demonstrated ferior technologically, is not automatically professional competence, together with recent relevant superior in another sense: it has .carefully research and development experience in computer avoided employing that technology which technology and application. The ability to communicate provides more detriments than benefits. It the results of analyses both in briefings and in is one thing deliberately to produce fewer professional reports is necessary. Ideas, objectivity, and the ability to analyze broadly stated problems are very shoes and thereby gain time to walk bare­ important. The successful candidates will act as principal foot on the sands of a clean beach. It is investigator or member of a small study team addressing another to walk barefoot because we can these issues for Government officials within the Office of afford no shoes - especially if the beach the Secretary of Defense. is filthy. A sound definition of techno­ If you find satisfaction in a challenge, we urge you to logical superiority is not merely to use submit a resume and a list of recent publications to: advancing science and technology aggres­ sively and avidly. It is to select appropri­ Mr. Thomas J. Shirhall ate areas for technological efforts. It is to Manager of Professional Staffing create approaches that will generate the Institute for Defense Analyses ~ least negatives and the maximum posi­ 400 Army Navy Drive, Arlington, VA 22202 115:4 An Equal Opportunity Employer M/F. tives. The objective is not to accumulate U.S. Citizenship Required. the biggest bag of technological tricks, Random Walk

Chemistry Lab The earthquake of 1971 shook the Caltech campus hard enough to necessitate the re­ moval of the undergraduate chemistry labs from their time-honored spots in severely damaged Gates Laboratory to a series of makeshift sites in buildings aU over cam­ pus. Fortunately, it was possible to raise money for, design, and build an 8,000- square-foot minimum-amenity replace­ Chern 4 and 5 students now have these handsome facilities in the Mead Undergraduate Chemistry ment building by the faU of 1972. It is Laboratory . into that building (just west of Noyes Laboratory) that the chemistry division This fall, life in lab-land looks much Laboratory; and it is now comfortably has with increasing difficulty shoehorned better. The building, remodeled and refur­ serving the needs of all those enrolled in several of its undergraduate lab courses bished, has become the Clifford S. and Ch 3,4, and 5 - up to a maximum of ever since. Ruth A. Mead Undergraduate Chemistry 180 students each term.

Happy Birthdays A number of important birthdays were re­ Astrophysics, Emeritus), William A. the school's origins, there was a luncheon cently celebrated at Caltech, one of which Fowler (Institute Professor of Physics), for community leaders and an exhibit of was that of Lee A. DuBridge, president and DuB ridge himself. A musical helping some of the medals awarded to Caltech emeritus, whose 80th birthday was the of nostalgia was provided by Kent Clark faculty over the years. On the day itself, occasion for a dinner at the Athenaeum on (professor of literature), who sang "Lee, there were birthday cakes and balloons for September 20. Hosts were President and Lee, Lee" from his own 195,6 musical faculty, staff, and students. Mrs. Marvin Goldberger and Provost and Who Is This Guy DuBridge? Gary Lorden Mrs. John Roberts. Roberts presided after (professor of mathematics) accompanied dinner, and the speakers included Gold­ him~ berger, Trustee William Zisch, Jesse Greenstein (the DuBridge Professor of

Later in the week, on November 5 and 6, the W. K. Kellogg Radiation Labora­ tory celebrated its 50th birthday with a conference, a special dinner, and a grand finale "Kellogg Party" in Dabney Gar­ den. One of the conference highlights was the dedication of the new accelerator lab­ oratory built in the underground area be­ Three birthdays crowded the first week tween Kellogg and Karman laboratories. of November, beginning on November 2. Distinguishedphysicists and astrophysi­ That was the 90th anniversary of the cists from all over came to participate as opening of the doors of Throop Univer­ guests and speakers in the seminar and sity. Those doors were in a building that celebrations . One of those celebrations - Lee DuB ridge' s 80th birthday party brought became a part of the Green Hotel in Pasa­ the special dinner at the Athena~um on out Mrs. Stanton Avery and W. A. Fowler, dena. Neither this name nor this location November 5 - was billed as "Willy's right. whose 70th birthday was honored a few lasted very long, however, and several Birthday Party. " It honored the 70th weeks later. One gift Fowler collected early was DuBridge' s autograph of a 1932 edition of changes later the school wound up as the birthday of one of Kellogg's most noted Hughes and DuBridge' s Photoelectric California Institute of Technology lo­ scientists, who is also among Caltech's Phenomena. cated on its present site. As a tribute to most notedalumnl,- williain A. Fowler.

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