American Gridlock: the Sources, Character, and Impact of Political Polarization Edited by James A

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Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-11416-6 - American Gridlock: The Sources, Character, and Impact of Political Polarization Edited by James A. Thurber And Antoine Yoshinaka Index More information

Index

20/20 program, 263, 276 activists and interest groups 60 Minutes, 263, 276 campaign finance and, 78–81 60-vote Senate general discussion, 69–74 emergence of, 138–141 motivations for activism, 72–73 minority party filibuster, 141–142 overview, 68 100-degree feeling thermometer political parties and, 69, 74–76 Barack Obama, 265–266 reform and, 381–382 Bill Clinton, 266 reverse lobbying, 76–77 defined, 260 affective polarization George W. Bush, 266 party sorting and, 123–124 media bias and, 274–277 rise of, 38–39 presidential candidates and parties, 2012, symmetrical polarization, 38–40 260–261 tribalism, xxiii 501 (c) (4) charitable organizations, 226–227 Affordable Care Act of 2010, 96–98, 107. 527s (independent campaign organizations), See also Obamacare 224–228 debate over, 309 Democrats’ support of, 26 ABC World News, 263, 276 Republican opposition to, 26 abortion issue role of media in misperceptions of, 267–270 abortion rights as cultural issue in 2012 African-Americans elections, 28–30 Democratic Party, 75 American National Election Studies, 37–38, redistricting and, 55 118, 333 role in election of Obama, 28 campaign contributions by pro-life and pro- Akin, Todd, 29 choice groups, 80–81 Aldrich, John H., 73, 239, 362 Democrats, 313 Alford, John, 110 General Social Survey, 117–118 Alito, Samuel, 176 party sorting and, 117–118 Altman, Micah, ix–x, 8, 45 Republicans, 313 Amendment 27, Colorado, 224 Supreme Court cases, 179 amendment roll-call votes. See roll-call votes Abramowitz, Alan I., ix, xxv, 8, 51–52 American National Election Studies. See ANES Abrams, Samuel J., ix, 9, 54 American Political Science Association (APSA) action space, Hinich-Ordeshook spatial voting report, 383–384 model, 358 AmericaVotes organization, 225

389

© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-11416-6 - American Gridlock: The Sources, Character, and Impact of Political Polarization Edited by James A. Thurber And Antoine Yoshinaka Index More information

390 Index

ANES (American National Election Studies) immigration, 93–95 abortion issue, 37–38, 118, 333 Obamacare, 96–98 correlation between partisanship and issue overview, 92–93 measures, 120–122 racialized discourse, 100–101 correlation between PID and ideology, 120, quantitative evidence of continuation of, 121 101–109 distributions of Democratic and Republican environmentalism, 107–108 voters on cultural issues scale, 2012, 37 gay rights, 107 distributions of Democratic and Republican immigration, 107 voters on ideology scale, 1972 and Obamacare, 107 2012, 32 overview, 101–106 distributions of Democratic and Republican Tea Party and, 108–109 voters on social welfare attitudes, 1984 Authoritarianism and Polarization in American and 2012, 36 Politics (Hetherington and Weiler), 86 diverging electoral coalitions, 31–32 authoritarian/nonauthoritarian divide, 88–90 economic issues, 333–334 automated redistricting algorithms, 58–62 ideology scale, 33–34, 120 independent voting, 25–26 backdoor spending, Congress, 381 mass partisan polarization, 312–313 Baier, Bret, 263, 276 measuring Tea Party support, 262 Barbera, Pablo, 363 net partisan media and beliefs, 267–268 BARD (open-source automated redistricting non-polarization of issues, 114–116 algorithm), 58–59 partisanship not polarized, 113–114 Barreto, Matt A., 108 president evaluation, 334–335 Bartels, Brandon L., x–xi, 10–11 question wording, 317, 333–335 basic space, Hinich-Ordeshook spatial voting rise of affective polarization, 38–39 model, 358, 361–362 symmetric separation of partisans on lib-con Battista, James S. Coleman, 239 scale, 120, 121 Baucus, Max, 161–162 Time Series Study 2012, 262–266 Bayh, Evan, 153 voter loyalty, 280 Becerra, Xavier, 288–289 ANOVA analyses, Keystone Pipeline case Beck, Glenn, 97, 263, 276 study, 348 beliefs, net partisan media and, 267–273 Ansolabehere, Stephen, 49 Bennett, Robert, 157–158 APSA (American Political Science Association) Berelson, B. R., 338 report, 383–384 between-district polarization, 216–218 Arceneaux, Kevin, x, 13, 342 bifurcated agenda, Supreme Court, 194–195, asymmetric polarization, xxiv–xxv 198 ANES ideology scale, 33–34 Big Five personality characteristics, 109–110 Democratic Party, 120 “big sort” thesis, redistricting, 54 DW-NOMINATE, 364–367 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 Republican Party, 120 (McCain-Feingold Act), 224 social welfare issues, 35–36 Bipartisan Policy Center, 228–232 in state legislatures, 209–210 birther movement, 98–99, 100 authoritarianism Black, Hugo, 187 authoritarian/nonauthoritarian divide, Blackmun, Harry, 175 88–90 Blagojevich, Rod, 223 latent public opinion and, 90–92 blockbuster scenario, Supreme Court judicial overview, 86–87 appointments, 196–197 qualitative evidence of continuation of, blogs, as news source, 292–293 92–101 Boehner, John, 77 factual know-nothingism, 98–99 Bond, Jon R., xi, 9–10 gay marriage, 95–96 Bond, Robert, 363

Index 391

Bonica, Adam, xi, 14, 371–373 Carroll, Royce, 362 Bork, Robert, 176–177 Carson, Jaime L., 55, 56 Boxer, Barbara Cartel theory, 134–135 amendment roll-call votes, 164, 165–166 Carter, Jimmy chastisement of Vitter, 159 cloture votes during presidency, 138–140 Brady, David, 239 presidential election, 22 Brat, Dave, 89 use of Saxbe Fix, 158 Brennan, William, 178 Casey, Bob, 359 Brooks, Deborah, 239 causal relationship between polarization and Brown, Clifford, 70 redistricting Brown, Hank, 164 first-order connections, 47–51 Brownback, Sam, 157–158 candidate divergence and elite Budget Commission, 157–158 polarization, 51 Bumpers, Dale, 164 district partisanship and elite polarization, Burger, Warren, 175 47–49 Burger Court, 181–183, 186 party divergence and elite polarization, Burton, Harold Hitz, 178 49–50 Bush, George, H. W., 55 full causal path, 55–57 cloture votes during presidency, 138–140 second-order connections, 51–55 highly polarized votes during presidency, geographic sorting and district 142–143 partisanship, 53–54 Supreme Court judicial appointments, redistricting and district partisanship, 175–176, 178–179 51–52 Bush, George W., 176 regional realignment and district cloture votes during presidency, 138–140 partisanship, 54–55 electoral polarization, 265–266 CBS News, 263, 276 highly polarized votes during presidency, Center for Responsive Politics (CRP), 78–81 142–143 CF scores, Congress, 364–367 immigration reform, 6 Chambers, Dean, 99 reverse lobbying and, 77 characteristic authoritarianism, 86. Supreme Court judicial appointments, 179 See also authoritarianism Byrd, Robert, 164 Cheney, Dick, 88 Christian conservatism Cable Act of 1992, 316 Christian right groups, 72 cable television, as news source, 316–317 Tea Party and, 98 California Citizens United v. Federal Elections 31st District House race, 2010, 288–289 Commission, 228 cross-filing in, 228–232 Clark, Peter B., 72–73 top two system, 211–212 Clark, Ramsey, 175 campaign financing Clark, Tom, 175, 181, 186 activists and interest groups and, 78–81 climate change (global warming), 282–283 campaign contributions and income Clinton, Bill inequality, 371–373 cloture votes during presidency, 138–140 campaign finance reform in Colorado, highly polarized votes during presidency, 223–228 142–143 candidate divergence, elite polarization and, 51 Supreme Court judicial appointments, 176, candidate evaluations, party sorting and, 179 125–126 use of Saxbe Fix, 158 Cantor, Eric, 89 Clinton, Hillary, 158–159, 367 cap and trade, 107 Clinton health care reform plan, 76–77 capital gains tax rate, 244–245 close votes, Supreme Court, 181–183 Carmines, Edward G., 71 closed primaries, 211

392 Index

cloture votes conservative media during Carter presidency, 138–140 media bias and polarized net thermometer during Clinton presidency, 138–140 ratings of Obama and Romney and during Eisenhower presidency, 138–140 political parties, 276 filibusters and, 138–141 media sources by party, 266 during George H. W. Bush presidency, partisanship of audience for, 263 138–140 probability of holding selected opinions and during George W. Bush presidency, 138–140 beliefs, 270–273 majority presidents and, 148–149 conservatives. See also party sorting minority presidents and, 148–149 partisan cues, 324–327 during Obama presidency, 138–140 Supreme Court policy outputs and, 190–192 during Reagan presidency, 138–140 constraint Club for Growth, 75 Hinich-Ordeshook spatial voting model, 359 CNN social welfare issues, 35–36 emergence of, 316 consumer choices, partisan news media, media bias and polarized net thermometer 317–322 ratings of Obama and Romney and control condition, Keystone Pipeline case study, political parties, 276 346–351 partisanship of audience for, 263 Converse, Philip, xxiii coalitions, electoral belief system and constraint, 359 coalition group incorporation, 74–75 issue constraint, 35 coalition maintenance, 74–75 Cook Political Report, 293 Obama, 280 Cooper, Anderson, 263, 276 diverging, 31–32 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, racial divide, 27 280 Romney, 27 corporate tax rate, 245 Coburn, Thomas, 161–162, 164, 168 Corrado, Anthony, 69 Coggins, William, 94–95, 96–98 corruption, campaign finance reform, 223–224 Cohen, Jeffrey E., xi–xii, 9–10 counter-argument, inoculation theory, Cohen, Martin, 72 344–345 Colbert, Stephen, 263, 276 counter-attitudinal media, 13–14, 338, 342, Colorado, campaign finance reform, 223–228 345 competitiveness. See electoral competition Cox, Gary W., 57 Conditional Party Government (CPG) theory, CPG (Conditional Party Government) theory, 134–135 134–135 Congress. See also House of Representatives; Cragg, John G., 362 NOMINATE scores; Senate Cragg and Donald method, 362 anger and frustration toward, 152–154 Crapo, Mike, 157–158, 162 Cartel theory, 136 cross-filing, in California, 228–232 comparing polarization in state legislatures Crossroads GPS organization, 226 and, 206–209 CRP (Center for Responsive Politics), 78–81 Conditional Party Government theory, 136 Crummy, Karen, 225 income inequality and polarization, cultural issues 359–365, 367–373 electorate, 28–30 partisan warfare, 154–155 symmetrical polarization, 37–38 party polarization in the House, 155 Cunningham, Duke, 223 reform possibilities, 380–383 Curry, Alexander L., xii, 13–14 theoretical bases of party influence in, 135–136 DADT (Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell) policy, 95, 107 Congress: A Political Economic History of Roll Dahl, Robert A., 174 Call Voting (Poole and Rosenthal), 359 The Daily Show, 341 Conrad, Kent, 157–158 Dateline, 263, 276

Index 393

death-by-amendment strategy, 169 relationship between polarization and DeMint, Jim, 164 electoral competitiveness, 291–292 Democratic Congressional Campaign research design and data set, 292–294 Committee (DCCC), 69 diverging electoral coalitions, 31–32 Democratic National Committee (DNC), 69 DNC (Democratic National Committee), 69 Democratic Party. See also party sorting Dole, Bob, 164 activists and interest groups and, 74–76 Donald, Stephen G., 362 affective polarization, 38–40 Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell (DADT) policy, 95, 107 ANES ideology scale, 33–34 Dorgan, Byron, 164 asymmetric polarization, 120 Downs, Anthony, 50 consistency of election results, 23–24 Drudge Report, 263, 276 cultural issues, 28–30, 37–38 DSCC (Democratic Senate Campaign diverging electoral coalitions, 31–32 Committee), 69 ideological divide, 28 DW-NOMINATE scores, 48, 364 ideology in Senate, 1965–2012, 156 asymmetric polarization, 364–367 incorporation of activists and interest groups history of, 359 into, 72 twenty-ﬁrst century, 359–365 interest groups, 75 national elections, 20–21 earmarks, 381 nonwhite vote, 27–28 Echo Chamber (Jamieson and Cappella), 343 one-party dominance of state and local Eisenhower, Dwight elections, 21–23 cloture votes during presidency, 138–140 partisan divide, 24–26 Supreme Court judicial appointments, 175, party organizations, 69 177–178, 179 polarization and, 32–33 election reform, 382–383 racial divide, 26–28 election results social welfare issues, 35–36 consistency of, 23–24 Democratic Senate Campaign Committee partisan media and, 277–279 (DSCC), 69 election-to-election swings, 21–23 Democrats electoral coalitions abortion issue, 313 coalition group incorporation, 74–75 expectations about 2012 election outcome, coalition maintenance, 74–75 277–279 diverging, 31–32 media sources, 262–266 Obama, 280 party afﬁliation by state, 283 racial divide, 27 preferred news labels, 339 Romney, 27 depolarization, 73 electoral competition. See also electorate descriptive statistics consistency of election results, 23–24 party polarization, 254 national elections, 20–21 redistributive policies, 254 one-party dominance of state and local state context variables, 255 elections, 21–23 direct effects, partisan news media, 314–315 relationship between polarization and, disputed aspects of polarization, xxiii–xxv 291–292 district partisanship electoral polarization in 2012 elite polarization and, 47–49 ANES Time Series Study (2012), 262–266 geographic sorting and, 53–54 effects of individual media sources, redistricting and, 51–52 274–277 regional realignment and, 54–55 election outcome expectations and, 277–279 district polarization and media coverage of U.S. opinion polarization, 265–270 House campaigns overview, 259–262 general discussion, 287–291 selective exposure, 270–273 local news coverage and, 294–299 voter loyalty, 280–282

394 Index

electorate filibusters affective polarization, 38–40 cloture votes and, 138–141 ANES ideology scale, 33–34 minority party filibuster, 141–142, 146–149 consistency of election results, 23–24 reform of, 381 cultural issues, 28–30, 37–38 Supreme Court judicial appointments, 197 diverging electoral coalitions, 31–32 “Final Supplemental Environmental Impact ideological divide, 28 Statement for the Keystone XL Project” national elections, 20–21 report, 337–338 one-party dominance of state and local Fiorina, Morris P., xii, 9, 32, 40, 54 elections, 21–23 first-order connections, redistricting and overview, 19 polarization relationship, 47–51 partisan divide, 24–26 candidate divergence and elite polarization, 51 polarization and, 32–33 district partisanship and elite polarization, racial divide, 26–28 47–49 social welfare issues, 35–36 party divergence and elite polarization, elite polarization. See also authoritarianism 49–50 1968–2012, 311–314 501 (c) (4) charitable organizations, 226–227 candidate divergence and, 51 527s (independent campaign organizations), causes for, 45–46 224–228 defined, 45 “FiveThirtyEight” blog, 278 district partisanship and, 47–49 fixed-effects models, polarization, 247 party divergence and, 49–50 direct effects, 245–246 policy consequences, 238–239 indirect effects, 248 typology of partisan news media effects, policy consequences of polarization (states), 314–315 245–246 Ellenberg, Jordan, 358 Fleisher, Richard, xii–xiii, 9–10 Emily’s List, 75 Fleury, Gordon, 230 Emolument Clause, 158 Ford, Gerald, 175, 179 empirical strategy, polarization, 242–245 formally-decided Supreme Court cases, 180, Engstrom, Erik, 57 186 Ensign, John, 157–158, 162 Fortas, Abe, 175 entertainment-seekers, 317–319 Fox News environmentalism emergence of, 316–317 authoritarianism and, 107–108 Keystone Pipeline case study, 337–338, environmentalist lobbies, 75, 78–79 346–348 exigent agenda, Supreme Court, 194–195 media bias and polarized net thermometer exposure combinations, media, 343–345 ratings of Obama and Romney and political parties, 276 Face the Nation, 276 partisanship of audience for, 263 Face the Nation program, 263 Republicans and, 339 Facebook, 292–293, 363 FPL (Federal Poverty Line) factual know-nothingism, 98–99 tax charge for those at 500% of, 244 federal budget, policy differences between tax credit for those at 100% of, 245 parties, 5 Franken, Al, 160 Federal Election Campaign Act in Frankfurter, Felix, 186 1971, 224 Freud, Sigmund, 88 federal minimum wage, 244 Frist, Bill, 167 Federal Poverty Line (FPL) Frontline, 263, 276 tax charge for those at 500% of, 244 full causal path, redistricting and polarization tax credit for those at 100% of, 245 relationship, 55–57 feminist organizations, Democratic Party, 75 fundraisers, motivations for activism, 73 Ferejohn, John, 239 fundraising. See campaign financing

Index 395

Galston, William A., 239, 385 holds, Senate, 141–142 Gauchat, Gordon, 99 House of Representatives. See also Congress gay rights correlation between presidential elections authoritarianism and, 107 results and, 23 Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy, 95, 107 district polarization and media coverage of gay marriage as cultural issue in 2012 House campaigns elections, 28–30 general discussion, 287–291 LGBT rights lobby, 75 local news coverage and, 294–299 Obama presidency and, 95–96 relationship between polarization and Geer, John G., 239 electoral competitiveness, 291–292 General Social Survey. See GSS research design and data set, 292–294 generation gap, 2012 presidential election, 30 party control, 136–137 geographic sorting, district partisanship and, party polarization in, 137–138 53–54 presidential success and party polarization in, Gerber, Alan S., 109–110 144–145 Gingrich, Newt, 100, 101 Huckabee, Mike, 263, 276 global warming (climate change), 282–283 Hufﬁngton Post, 263, 276 Goldberg, Arthur, 175 Human Rights Campaign, 75 Gore, Al, 282–283 Hutchison, Kay Baily, 157–158 Gray, Virginia, 218 Gregg, Judd, 157–158 ideological dimensions, Hinich-Ordeshook gridlock, 240–241 spatial voting model, 358 Grofman, Bernard, 55 ideological divide, electorate, 28 GSS (General Social Survey) ideology scale, ANES, 32, 33–34 abortion issue, 117–118 immigration ideology not polarized, 113–115 authoritarianism and, 107 Guinta, Frank, 287–288, 289 Obama presidency and, 93–95 Gun Owners of America, 75 policy differences between parties, 6 gun rights lobby, 80 Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, 6 Hacker, Jacob, 238–239, 240–241 income inequality Hahn, K. S., 339 campaign contributions and, 371–373 Haidt, Jonathan, 110 House polarization and, 367–373 Handley, Lisa, 55 state legislatures, 214 Hannity, Sean, 263, 276 An Inconvenient Truth (Gore), 282–283 Hapanowicz, Ann, 54 independent campaign organizations (527s), Harbridge, Laurel, 239, 379–380 224–228 Harkin, Tom, 164 Independents Harlan, John Marshall, 177 independent leaners, 120 Hatch, Orrin, 76 media sources, 262–266 Hayes, Danny, xiii, 13 party leaning and, 25–26 Hayes, Matthew, 55–56 indirect effects, partisan news media, 314–315 Heckman, James J., 362 inequality. See income inequality Hedges, Roman, 70 Ingraham, Laura, 89, 263, 276 Heinz, John, 359 Inhofe, Jim, 157–158 Helms, Jesse, 164 inoculation theory, media, 13–14, 343–345 Hetherington, Marc, xiii, 9 interest groups, 218. See also activists and Hibbing, John R., 110 interest groups Hibbing, Matthew, 55–56 Internet media Hill, Stephen, 95 blogs, 292–293 Hinich, Melvin, 358–359 partisanship of audience for, 263 Hoffman, Paul, 70 social media as news source, 292–293

396 Index

Interstate Commerce Act of 1887, 127 latent public opinion, 90–92 intradistrict divergence, 215–218 Latinos Is America Too Polarized to Make Public Democratic Party, 75 Policy? lecture (Rivlin), 238 Republican elites and, 92 Isakson, Johnny, 159 Lautenberg, Frank, 165–166 It’s Even Worse Than It Looks (Mann and Lawless, Jennifer L., xiv, 13 Orstein), xxiv–xxv Layman, Geoffrey, 71 Iyengar, S., 339 Lazarsfeld, P. F., 338 League of Conservation Voters, 75 Jackson, Robert H., 177 Lee, Frances, xxiii, 2–3, 154–155 Jacobson, Gary C., xiii, 12–13, 122, 123, legal rights for homosexuals, 28–30. See also 293–294 gay rights Jeffords, James, 144 Levendusky, Matthew, 319, 342 Johanns, Mike, 160 Levin, Mark, 263, 276 Johnson, Lyndon B., 175 LGBT rights lobby, 75 Johnson, Martin, xiii–xiv, 13, 342 lib-con measure, party sorting, 121, 126–127 Jones, David R., 241 liberal bias, mainstream media, 343 judicial appointments, Supreme Court liberal media blockbuster scenario, 196–197 media bias and polarized net thermometer ﬁlibusters, 197 ratings of Obama and Romney and polarization and, 173–180 political parties, 276 media sources by party, 266 Kabaservice, Gregory, xxiv partisanship of audience for, 263 Kagan, Elena, 176 probability of holding selected opinions and Karol, David, xiv, 8–9 beliefs, 270–273 Katz, Jonathan N., 57 liberals. See also party sorting Kelly, Megyn, 95 partisan cues, 324–327 Kennedy, Anthony, 172, 175, 178, 188, 189, Supreme Court policy outputs and, 190 190–192 Kennedy, John F. likeminded news condition, Keystone Pipeline presidential election, 22 case study, 346–351 Supreme Court judicial appointments, 175 likeminded-mainstream news condition, Kennedy, Ted, 77, 163–164 Keystone Pipeline case study, 346–351 Kennedy/Johnson administration, 138–140 Limbaugh, Rush, 263, 276, 343 Kerry, John, 167 Lindstädt, René, 316 Key, V. O., 90–95 local elections, one-party dominance of, 21–23 Keystone Pipeline case study, 346–351 local news coverage, 294–299, 304–308 Kirk, Mark, 96 Lodge, M., 342 Klinkner, Philip, 54 Lofgren, Mike, xxiv, 98 Knaus, Tim, 224 Lugar, Richard, 367 Knobloch-Westerwick, S., 339 Koford, Kenneth, 361 machine politics, 73 Koger, Gregory, 141 MacRae, Duncan, 362 Kousser, Thad mainstream media policy gridlock in California, 241 media bias and polarized net thermometer redistricting in California, 62 ratings of Obama and Romney and Krehbiel, Keith, 362 political parties, 276 Kyl, Jon, 165–166 media sources by party, 266 partisanship of audience for, 263 La Raja, Raymond J., 73 polarizing effects of, 342–343 labor unions, Democratic Party, 75 probability of holding selected opinions and landslide elections, presidential, 20–21 beliefs, 270–273

Index 397

mainstream news condition, Keystone Pipeline media, polarization in. See also partisan news case study, 346–351 media mainstream-likeminded news condition, ANES Time Series Study (2012), Keystone Pipeline case study, 346–351 262–266 majority party effects of individual media sources, amendment roll-call votes, 1993–2012, 274–277 164–165 election outcome expectations and, Senate versus House, 136–137 277–279 majority presidents, cloture votes and, opinion polarization, 265–270 148–149 overview, 259–262 Malhotra, Neil, 379–380 selective exposure, 270–273 Manchin, Joe, 161 U.S. House campaigns and Mann, Thomas E., xiv–xv, xxiv–xxv, general discussion, 287–291 41–42, 69 local news coverage and, 294–299 marriage gap, 2012 presidential election, 30 relationship between polarization Marshall, Thurgood, 175 and electoral competitiveness, Masket, Seth, xv, xxv, 11 291–292 mass partisan polarization research design and data set, 292–294 1968–2012, 311–314 voter loyalty, 280–282 typology of partisan news media effects, median voter theorem, 47–48, 50 314–315 Medicare, 310 material incentives, activists and interest Meet the Press program, 263, 276 groups, 72–73 Meng, J., 339 Matthews, Chris, 263, 276 Messing, Solomon, 363 McCain, John, 153, 168, 367 Mettler, Suzanne, 97 amendment roll-call votes, 164, Meyer, Dick, 114 165–166 minority party S. 2853 bill, 157–158 amendment roll-call votes, 1993–2012, stance on homosexuals in military, 29 164–165 McCain-Feingold Act (Bipartisan Campaign ﬁlibuster, evidence of effects of, Reform Act of 2002), 224 146–149 McCarty, Nolan, xv, xxi, xxiv, 14, 364 ﬁlibuster, overview, 141–142 polarization and gridlock, 240 Senate versus House, 136–137 polarization and income inequality, 367 minority presidents, cloture votes and, polarization and party control, 241 148–149 polarization and public opinion, 214 Minton, Sherman, 177, 181 polarization and redistributive policy, Mitchell, George, 164 239–240 mitigating polarization, 379–380 polarization and state income inequality, 214 Moderates. See also party sorting redistricting, 56–57, 62 Mondale, Walter, 20 McClosky, Herbert, 70 Mooney, Chris, 99 McConnell, Mitch motivations for activism, 72–73 reverse lobbying, 77 Mourdock, Richard, 29 Salazar cabinet salary issue, 159 MSNBC News McDonald, Michael P., xvi, 8, 45 emergence of, 316 optimal gerrymandering strategy, 57 Keystone Pipeline case study, 337–338, redistricting, 51–52 346–348 McGovern, George, 267 media bias and polarized net thermometer McPhee, W. N., 338 ratings of Obama and Romney and measuring political parties, 276 party sorting, 120–122 partisanship of audience for, 263 polarization, 143–144 Murkowski, Lisa, 96, 157–158

398 Index

NARAL (National Abortion Rights Action news-seekers League), 75 defined, 318 national elections. See presidential elections entertainment-seekers versus, 317–322 National Exit Poll Niche News: The Politics of News Choice partisan divide in 2012 presidential election, (Stroud), 338–339, 341–342 24–25 Nielsen ratings, 339–341 voter loyalty, 280 Nightline, 263, 276 national institutions. See also Congress Nivola, Pietro S., 239 Presidential-Congressional relations Nixon, Richard basics of, 134–135 Supreme Court judicial appointments, 175, emergence of 60-vote Senate, 138–141 178, 179 House-Senate differences, 136–137 use of Saxbe Fix, 158 minority party filibuster, 141–142, Noel, Hans, xxii 146–149 NOMINATE (Nominal Three-step Estimation) overview, 133–134 scores, 48 party polarization and presidential success, history of, 357–359 143–144 twenty-first century, 359–365 party polarization in House and Senate, nonwhite vote, 26–28 137–138 normalized two-party vote, 51–52 party polarization operates differently in “Not close” outcomes, Supreme Court, the House and Senate, 144–146 193–194 theoretical bases of party influence in NPAT (National Political Awareness Test), 206 Congress, 135–136 NRA (National Rifle Association), 75, 80 Supreme Court NRSC (National Republican Senate disappearing center, 180–189 Committee), 69 judicial appointments, 173–180 overview, 171–173 Obama, Barack, 367 polarization paradox, 193–195 cloture votes during presidency, 138–140 policymaking and, 190–192 cultural divide between Romney and, 29–30 National Organization for Women, 75 electoral polarization in 2012, 265–270 National Political Awareness Test (NPAT), 206 endorsement of S. 2853 bill, 157–158 National Public Radio (NPR), 263, 276 highly polarized votes during presidency, National Republican Senate Committee 142–143 (NRSC), 69 immigration reform, 6 National Rifle Association (NRA), 75, 80 liberalism of voters on issues, 28 The Nature and Origin of Mass Opinion stance on homosexuals in military, 29 (Zaller), 90–95 state and local elections, 2012, 21–22 NBC News Supreme Court judicial appointments, 176 media bias and polarized net thermometer Obama presidency ratings of Obama and Romney and factual know-nothingism, 98–99 political parties, 276 gay marriage, 95–96 partisanship of audience for, 263 immigration, 93–95 Keystone Pipeline case study, 337–338, Obamacare, 96–98, 107 346–348 overview, 92–93 Nebraska, term limits, 213 racialized discourse, 100–101 Nelson, Craig T., 97 Obamacare, 96–98, 107. See also Affordable Neustadt, Richard, 134–135, 149 Care Act of 2010 New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, OC (Optimal Classification), 363 287–288, 289 O’Connor, Sandra Day, 175, 178, 188–189 New York Times, 263, 276 O’Hara, Rosemary, 70 news content. See media, polarization in; Oil & Gas and Coal sectors, 78–79 partisan news media OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression, 139

Index 399

100-degree feeling thermometer party control Barack Obama, 265–266 defined, 143–144 Bill Clinton, 266 House-Senate differences, 136–137 defined, 260 polarization and, 241–242 George W. Bush, 266 Senate, 2001, 144 media bias and, 274–277 party de-sorting, 127 presidential candidates and parties, 2012, party divergence, elite polarization and, 49–50 260–261 party evaluation, party sorting and, 125–126 O’Neill, Tip, 41 The Party Is Over (Lofgren), xxiv open-source automated redistricting algorithm party polarization (BARD), 58–59 defined, 143 opinion polarization, partisan media and, in the House, 155 265–270 measuring, 156 Optimal Classification (OC), 363 operational differences in House and Senate, Ordeshook, Peter, 358–359 144–146 Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, 139 presidential success and, 143–144 O’Reilly, Bill, 263, 276, 282 presidential success on cloture votes and, Ornstein, Norman J., xxiv–xxv, 41–42, 153 147–148 overlap, party, 204 presidential success on non-cloture votes and, 146–147 Pacelle, Richard L., 190–192 party sorting PAC-NOMINATE, 363–364 affective polarization and, 123–124 Palin, Sarah, 100 lib-con measure and political evaluations, Parker, Christopher, 108 126–127 partisan bickering, 154–155 measuring, 120–122 partisan cues overview, 113–114 conservatives, 324–327 polarization versus, 114–119 liberals, 324–327 political evaluations, 122–123 news content versus, 322–327 voting behavior and, 124–126 partisan cues experiment, 335–336 Party Wars (Sinclair), 154 partisan divide, electorate, 24–26 party-linked lobbies, 75 partisan news media Paul, Rand, 127, 164 ANES question wording, 333–335 Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) rule, 381 cable television, 316–317 Perry, Rick, 94 consumer choices, 317–322 personal power, 134–135 effects of, 311–314 persuasion research, inoculation theory, exposure combinations and inoculation, 343–345 343–345 Peskowitz, Zachary, 362 history of, 311–314 Pew Research Center Report, 116–117 Keystone Pipeline case study, 346–351 Phillips, Justin, 62 news content versus partisan cues, 322–327 phone banking, 74 overview, 309–311 Pierson, Paul partisan cues experiment, 335–336 polarization and gridlock, 240–241 polarizing effects of, 341–343 policy consequences of polarization, selective exposure, 338–341 238–239 partisan team play, xxiii Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992), 179 partisan warfare, 154–155 polarization Budget Commission, 157–158 American Political Science Association measuring, 167–169 report, 383–384 roll-call votes and, 161–166 electorate and, 32–33 Saxbe Fix, 158–160 income inequality and, 367–373 Secret Santa, 160–161 party sorting versus, 114–119

400 Index

polarization industrial complex, 114 overview, 133–134 polarization paradox, Supreme Court, party polarization and presidential success, 171–172, 193–195 143–144 policy consequences of polarization in states party polarization in House and Senate, elite polarization, 238–239 137–138 empirical strategy, 242–245 party polarization operates differently in the fixed-effects models, 245–246, 247 House and Senate, 144–146 gridlock, 240–241 theoretical bases of party influence in overview, 236–238 Congress, 135–136 party control, 241–242 primary system, 211–212 redistributive policy and, 239–240 print media policymaking, Supreme Court, 190–192 district polarization and electoral political evaluations competitiveness in House campaigns, party sorting, 122–123 292–294, 296, 304–308 party sorting lib-con measure and, 126–127 partisanship of audience for, 263 Political Ideologies and Political Parties in pro-choice groups, 80–81. See also abortion American History (Noel), xxii issue Polsby, Nelson, 73 Project Vote Smart, 206 Poole, Keith T., xvi, xxiv, 14, 48, 212 pro-life groups, 80–81. See also abortion issue Congress: A Political Economic History of PSS. See Presidential Success Scores Roll Call Voting, 359 public financing, 213. See also campaign income inequality and polarization, 367 financing polarization and gridlock, 240 public opinion, as cause of polarization in state polarization and party control, 241 legislatures, 214–217 polarization and public opinion, 214 purposive activism, 72–73 polarization and redistributive policy, 239–240 qualitative evidence of continuation of polarization and state income inequality, 214 authoritarianism, 92–101 popular consensus, 127 factual know-nothingism, 98–99 Portman, Rob, 96 gay marriage, 95–96 Powell, Lewis F., 175 immigration, 93–95 Powell, Lynda W., 70 Obamacare, 96–98 predictive dimensions, Hinich-Ordeshook overview, 92–93 spatial voting model, 358 racialized discourse, 100–101 presidential elections quality challenger, House campaigns, 293–294 correlation between House election results quantitative evidence of continuation of and, 23 authoritarianism, 101–109 correlation between Senate election results environmentalism, 107–108 and, 23–24 gay rights, 107 electoral competition at national level, 20–21 immigration, 107 one-party dominance at state and local levels, Obamacare, 107 21–23 overview, 101–106 presidential roll calls, 143 Tea Party and, 108–109 Presidential Success Scores (PSS) defined, 143–144 racial divide party polarization in Senate and, 145–146 electoral coalitions, 27 party polarization in the House and, 144–145 electorate, 26–28 Presidential-Congressional relations racial resentment scale, 270 basics of, 134–135 racialized discourse, Obama presidency, 89, emergence of 60-vote Senate, 138–141 100–101 House-Senate differences, 136–137 radio media, 263 minority party filibuster, 141–142, 146–149 Ranney, Austin, xxiii–xxiv

Index 401

Reagan, Ronald Republican National Congressional Committee cloture votes during presidency, 138–140 (RNCC), 69 highly polarized votes during presidency, Republican Party. See also party sorting; Tea 142–143 Party incorporation of activists and interest groups activists and interest groups and, into Republican Party, 72 74–76 landslide election, 20 affective polarization, 38–40 Supreme Court judicial appointments, 175, ANES ideology scale, 33–34 179 asymmetric polarization, 120 redistributive policies, polarization and consistency of election results, 23–24 capital gains tax rate, 244–245 cultural issues, 28–30, 37–38 corporate tax rate, 245 diverging electoral coalitions, 31–32 federal minimum wage, 244 factual know-nothingism, 98–99 overview, 239–240 federal funding for clean energy, 95 State Children’s Health Insurance Program, gay rights, 95–96 243–244 ideological divide, 28 by target population and index status, 243 ideology in Senate, 1965–2012, 156 tax charge for those at 500% of FPL, 244 incorporation of activists and interest groups tax credit for those at 100% FPL, 244 into, 72 Temporary Assistance to Needy Families interest groups, 75 program, 243 national elections, 20–21 top marginal tax rate, 244 Obamacare, 96–98 redistricting one-party dominance of state and local district partisanship and, 51–52 elections, 21–23 effect on polarization, 57 partisan divide, 24–26 first-order connections, 47–51 party organizations, 69 full causal path, 55–57 polarization and, 32–33 overview, 45–47 racial divide, 26–28 reform of, 382 social welfare issues, 35–36 reforming to reduce polarization, Republicans 57–62 abortion issue, 313 second-order connections, 51–55 expectations about 2012 election outcome, solving polarization with, 62–63 277–279 Reed, Stanley Forman, 177, 181 media sources, 262–266 reforms party affiliation by state, 283 campaign finance reform in Colorado, preferred news labels, 339 223–228 reverse lobbying, 76–77 cross-filing in California, 228–232 Rigby, Elizabeth, xvi, 11–12 institutional, 380–383 RNC (Republican National Committee), 69 overview, 222–223 RNCC (Republican National Congressional regional realignment, district partisanship and, Committee), 69 54–55 Roberts, John, 176 regression analysis, Keystone Pipeline case Roberts, Pat, 76 study, 350 Roberts Court, 181–183, 186 Rehnquist, William, 175 Roe v. Wade, 179 Rehnquist Court, 181–183, 186, roll-call votes, 161–166 Reid, Harry face validity test, 163–164 filibusters and Supreme Court judicial in majority and minority parties, appointments, 197 164–165 Salazar cabinet salary issue, 159 overview, 161–163 religious right, 72, 98 senators whose amendments cause the most Republican National Committee (RNC), 69 roll-call votes, 1993–2012, 164

402 Index

Romney, Mitt, 100 roll-call votes and, 161–166 cultural divide between Obama and, 29–30 “Saxbe Fix,” 158–160 liberalism of voters on issues, 28 Secret Santa, 160–161 stance on homosexuals in military, 29 party control, 136–137 state and local elections, 2012, 21–22 party polarization, 137–138, 156 “us-versus-them” mindset, 97 presidential success and party polarization Rosenthal, Howard, xvii, xxiv, 14, 48 in, 145–146 Congress: A Political Economic History of Secret Santa, 160–161 Roll Call Voting, 359 Senate Ethics Committee, 158 income inequality and polarization, 367 Shaw v. Reno cases, 55 polarization and gridlock, 240 Shea-Porter, Carol, 287–288, 289 polarization and party control, 241 Shor, Boris, xvii, 11, 364 polarization and public opinion, 214 polarization and state income inequality, polarization and redistributive policy, 214 239–240 redistricting in California, 62 polarization and state income inequality, 214 Sierra Club, 75 Rove, Karl, 226 Silver, Nate, 278 Rubio, Marco, 94 Simpson-Bowles Commission, 157–158 Rule and Ruin (Kabaservice), xxiv Sinclair, Barbara, 154 60 Minutes, 263, 276 S. 2853 bill, 157–158 60-vote Senate Salazar, Ken, 158–159 emergence of, 138–141 salient rulings, Supreme Court, 190–192 minority party filibuster, 141–142 Samish, Artie, 230 Skocpol, Theda, 94–95, 96–98 Santorum, Rick, 95, 359 Smith, Kevin, 110 Savage, Michael, 263, 276 Smith, Stephen C., 288–289 Saxbe, William, 158 Snowe, Olympia, 153 Saxbe Fix, 158–160 Snyder, James M., 362 Scalia, Antonin, 175, 178 social media, as news source, 292–293 scaling of campaign contributions, 363–364 social welfare issues, 35–36 SCHIP (State Children’s Health Insurance soft money, 226 Program), 243–244 solidary motivation, activists and interest Schlesinger, Joseph, 69 groups, 72–73 Schwartzburg compactness measure, 60 Sotomayor, Sonia, 176 second-order connections, redistricting and source derogation, media, 345 polarization relationship, 51–55 Souter, David, 175–176, 179, 188 geographic sorting and district partisanship, spatial model, NOMINATE, 358–359. 53–54 See also NOMINATE scores redistricting and district partisanship, 51–52 Specter, Arlen, 359 regional realignment and district split-ticket voting partisanship, 54–55 decline in, 124–126 Secret Santa (Senate), 160–161 relationship to party voting, 126–127 selective exposure Starnes, Todd, 89 partisan, 338–341 State Children’s Health Insurance Program partisan media and, 270–273 (SCHIP), 243–244 Senate states, polarization in correlation between presidential elections California results and, 23–24 31st District House race, 2010, 288–289 holds, 141–142 cross-filing in, 228–232 partisan warfare top two system, 211–212 Budget Commission, 157–158 Colorado, campaign finance reform, measuring, 167–169 223–228

Index 403

one-party dominance of state elections, 21–23 tax charge for those at 500% of FPL, 244 policy consequences of tax credit for those at 100% FPL, 244 elite polarization, 238–239 Tea Party, 2–3, 366. See also Republican Party empirical strategy, 242–245 ANES measurement of support, 262 fixed-effects models, 245–246, 247 authoritarian politics and, 9, 86, 108–109 gridlock, 240–241 Dave Brat, 89 overview, 236–238 distrust of science, 99 party control, 241–242 effect on Republican Party, xxiv redistributive policy and, 239–240 federal social programs and, 96–97 state legislatures gay rights, 95–96 asymmetric polarization, 209–210 immigration reform and, 94–95 inequality and, 214 Obamacare, 96–98 interest group environments and, 218 religious right and, 98 overview, 203–205 teamsmanship, 2–3 primary system and, 211–212 television media. See also names of specific public financing and, 213 media sources and personalities public opinion and, 214–217 cable television as news source, 316–317 term limits and, 212–213 Nielson ratings, 339–341 trends, 205–208 partisanship of audiences for, 263 unilateral action and, 219 Temporary Assistance to Needy Families state level income inequality, 214 (TANF) program, 243 Stevens, John Paul, 175 term limits, state legislatures, 212–213 Stewart, Jon, 263, 276 Theriault, Sean M., xviii, 10 Stewart, Potter, 186, 187 Thomas, Clarence, 175–176, 177 Stonecash, Jeffrey M., 55 threat, inoculation theory, 344–345 straight ticket voting, 26 three-party system, 383 strategic retirements, Supreme Court justices, Thune, John, 164 177–178, 179 Thurber, James A., xviii Stroud, Natalie (Talia) Jomini, xviii, 13–14 Tillman Act of 1907, 224 Niche News: The Politics of News Choice, Toomey, Pat, 161 338–339, 341–342 top marginal tax rate, 244 partisan selective exposure, 339 top two primary system, California, subconstituencies, activists and, 74 228–232 Sulkin, Tracy, 55–56 “Toward a More Responsible Two-Party Sununu, John, 100 System” report (Ranney), xxiii–xxiv Supercommittee, failure of, 5 trends, polarization in state legislatures, Supreme Court 205–208 disappearing center, 180–189 tribalism (affective partisan polarization), xxiii judicial appointments, 173–180 Truman, Harry, 175, 179 overview, 171–173 20/20 program, 263, 276 polarization paradox, 193–195 Twitter, 292–293, 363 policymaking and, 190–192 two-party vote, 48 swing capacity concept, Supreme Court Justices, 180–189 “ugly politics,” 154 swing justices, 171, 172 Unanimous Consent Agreements (UCA), symmetrical polarization 140–141 affective polarization, 38–40 unanimous outcomes, Supreme Court, 193 cultural issues, 37–38 unilateral action, polarization in state legislatures and, 219 Taber, C. S., 342 Unruh, Jesse, 231–232 TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy USA Today, 263, 276 Families) program, 243 “us-versus-them” mindset, 97

404 Index

Van Susteren, Greta, 263, 276 voting behavior, 124–126 Vinson, Fred M., 177 Voting Rights Act of 1965, 55 Vinson Court, 180–185 Vitter, David, 159–160, 164 Wall Street Journal, 263, 276 volitional agenda, Supreme Court, Warren, Earl, 177, 229 194–195 Warren Court, 181–183, 186 Voorheis, John, 214 Washington Post, 263, 276 voters Weiler, Jonathan, xix, 9 affective polarization, 38–40 Weisberg, Herbert F., 361 ANES ideology scale, 33–34 Wellstone, Paul, 164 consistency of election results, 23–24 White, Byron, 175, 178, 187 cultural issues, 28–30, 37–38 Whittaker, Charles Evans, 178 diverging electoral coalitions, 31–32 Wielen, Ryan Vander, 316 ideological divide, 28 Williamson, Vanessa, 94–95, 96–98 national elections, 20–21 Wilson, James Q., 72–73 one-party dominance of state and local Wiltse, David L., 73 elections, 21–23 within-district polarization, 216–218 overview, 19 Wofford, Harris, 359 partisan divide, 24–26 Woods, James, 71 polarization and, 32–33 worldview politics. See authoritarianism racial divide, 26–28 Wright, Gerald, xix, 11–12 social welfare issues, 35–36 voter loyalty, 280–282 Yoshinaka, Antoine, xix Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a YouGov surveys, 101–106 Presidential Campaign (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee), 338 Zaller, John, xxv, 90–95