An Analysis of Turkish Rail Transit Investments

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An Analysis of Turkish Rail Transit Investments AN ANALYSIS OF RAIL TRANSIT INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY: ARE THE EXPECTATIONS MET? A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY ÖZGE ÖZGÜR IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN URBAN DESIGN IN CITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING NOVEMBER 2009 Approval of the thesis: AN ANALYSIS OF RAIL TRANSIT INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY: ARE THE EXPECTATIONS MET? submitted by ÖZGE ÖZGÜR in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in City and Regional Planning Department, Urban Design, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Canan Özgen _____________________ Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Melih Ersoy _____________________ Head of Department, City and Regional Planning Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ela Babalık Sutcliffe _____________________ Supervisor, City and Regional Planning Dept., METU Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Ali Türel _____________________ City and Regional Planning Dept., METU Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ela Babalık Sutcliffe _____________________ City and Regional Planning Dept., METU Assoc. Prof. Dr. Baykan Günay _____________________ City and Regional Planning Dept., METU Assist. Prof. Dr. Ebru Vesile Öcalır _____________________ Traffic Planning and Implementation Dept., Gazi University Turgay Günal, M.Sc. _____________________ Date: 18.11.2009 ________________ iii I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Özge ÖZGÜR iii ABSTRACT AN ANALYSIS OF RAIL TRANSIT INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY: ARE THE EXPECTATIONS MET?* Özgür, Özge M.S., Department of City and Regional Planning, Urban Design Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ela Babalık-Sutcliffe November 2009, 154 pages Rail transit investments require highest amount of investment costs of all modes and considering the high cost involved, it is particularly important that their performance justifies this high cost and that expectations from these investments are met. Therefore, in the world, it has become an important field of research to study the performances of rail systems in order to assess whether these expectations are met. In Turkey, there is a growing interest in constructing rail transit systems in the cities. However, there has been limited number of studies on the performance of these investments. There are researches on individual systems; yet, there has not been a comprehensive, systematic and comparative evaluation of the rail transit experience of Turkish cities. It is not clear with what expectations these systems are built or whether these expectations are met. There seems to be an urgent need to study these rail investments, with a particular focus on their planning, investment objectives and outcomes. This thesis analyzes the expectations from the rail transit systems in Turkey and answers the question whether these expectations are met. In order to understand the objectives under the planning and decision making processes in the implementation of Turkish rapid rail transport investments, a sample group was selected among the cities currently operating rail transit systems: İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir and Bursa. The study sets the objectives in planning and iv implementing rail transit systems drawn by the answers in the semi-structured interviews. It compares the expectations with the actual outcomes. As the primary indicators of performance, cost and ridership forecast and outcome data are also collected and considered in the comparison. It is found that the main success in all case study cities was the increase in public transport usage after the opening of the rail transit systems. On the other hand, systems performed rather poor in terms of other expectations, such as attaining ridership forecasts, being built within budget, creating an integrated public transport system, traffic reduction, air pollution reduction, improvement of city image, etc. Hence there is a gap between expectations and outcomes. Keywords: Rail transit systems in Turkey, Expectations, Ridership forecast, Cost forecast, Performance analysis *Second part of this title is inspired by Mackett R L, Edwards M (1998) The impact of new urban public transport systems: will the expectations be met? Transportation Research A, volume 32, 231- 245. v ÖZ TÜRKİYE‟DEKİ RAYLI SİSTEM YATIRIMLARININ ANALİZİ: BEKLENTİLER KARŞILANDI MI? Özgür, Özge Yüksek Lisans, Şehir ve Bölge Planlama Bölümü, Kentsel Tasarım Tez Yöneticisi: Doç. Dr. Ela Babalık-Sutcliffe Kasım 2009, 154 sayfa Raylı sistem yatırımları, bütün ulaşım modları içerisinde en yüksek yatırım maliyetine sahip olan yatırımlardır. Performanslarının beklentileri karşılıyor olması bu bakımdan çok önemlidir. Bu nedenle dünyada, raylı sistem yatırımlarının performanslarının incelenmesi önemli bir araştırma sahası haline gelmiştir. Günümüzde, Türkiye‟de yapılan raylı sistem yatırımı sayısı gittikçe artmaktadır. Bu yatırımların performanslarını değerlendiren çalışmalar ise bir o kadar kısıtlıdır. Türkiye‟deki raylı sistem deneyimini inceleyen çalışmalar tek tek sistemler için yapılmakta olup, tüm sistemleri birbiriyle karşılaştırarak kapsamlı ve sistematik biçimde raylı sistem deneyimini bütün olarak inceleyen çalışmalar bulunmamaktadır. Bu yatırımların hangi beklentiler içerisinde planlandıkları ya da işletilmeye başlandıktan sonra beklentileri karşılayıp karşılamadıkları bilinmemektedir.Bu sebeple, raylı sistem yatırımlarının planlama aşamalarını, yatırım amaçlarını ve ortaya çıkan sonuçları araştıracak çalışmalara ivedilikle ihtiyaç vardır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye‟deki raylı sistem yatırımlarından beklenenleri ortaya koyarak bu beklentilerin karşılanıp karşılanmadığını araştırmaktadır. Bu beklentileri ortaya çıkarmak üzere İstanbul, Ankara, İzmir ve Bursa kentlerinde hali hazırda işletilen raylı sistem yatırımları incelenmiştir. Yapılan yarı yapılandırılmış görüşmelerle bu sistemler planlanırken vi ve uygulanırken öne sürülen hedefler belirlenmiş; bu hedefler, ortaya çıkan sonuçlarla karşılaştırılmıştır. Raylı sistem yatırımlarının temel performans göstergeleri olarak maliyet ve yolcu sayıları tahminleri ile gerçekleşen durum verileri de toplanmış, karşılaştırmalı bir analiz yapılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, tüm sistemlerin ortak başarısının toplu taşın sistemindeki yolcu sayılarının artışına yaptıkları katkı olduğu gözlenmiştir. Bunun yanı sıra; yolcu sayısı tahminleri, maliyet tahminleri, entegre edilmiş toplu taşın sistemi, trafik sıkışıklığını azaltma, kente imaj kazandırma vb. konularındaki beklentileri karşılayamadıkları görülmüştür. Beklentiler ve ortaya çıkan sonuçlar arasında fark olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Anahtar kelimeler: Türkiye‟deki raylı sistem yatırımları, Yolcu tahminleri, Maliyet tahminleri, Performans analizi vii To My Grandfathers viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ela Babalık- Sutcliffe for her guidance, advice, criticism, encouragements and insight throughout the research. I would also like to thank my other commitee members Assoc. Prof. Dr. Baykan Günay, Turgay Günal, Assist. Prof. Dr. Ebru Vesile Öcalır and Prof. Dr. Ali Türel for their suggestions. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Assist. Prof. Dr. Kevser İsmet Üstündağ, Prof. Dr. Tülay Kılınçaslan and Assist. Prof. Dr. Yıldırım Oral for their suggestions and comments during my graduate studies. The technical assistance of İstanbul Greater Municipality Department of Transport Planning, İstanbul Ulaşım A.Ş., Prof. Dr. Haluk Gerçek, Ankara Greater Municipality, Fuat Vural (EGO Department of Transport Planning and Coordination), Erhan Öncü (Ulaşım Art Ltd. Şti.), İzmir Metro A.Ş., İzmir Greater Municipality, Hülya Arkon (İzmir Greater Municipality), Cemal Yıldız (İzmir Greater Municipality), Bursa Greater Municipality, Burulaş A.Ş., Aslıhan Uyan (Bursa Greater Municipality Transport Coordination Center) are gratefully acknowledged. I would like to gratefully thank to Ayşe Belkıs Kubilay, for the day she encouraged me to start writing a thesis. I would also like to thank my father; Mehmet Bülent Özgür, my mother; Bilge Özgür, my sister; Gözde Özgür and Umut Onur Cevher for their endless support, encouragement and patience. ix TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................... iv ÖZ ........................................................................................................................................... vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………………...ix TABLE OF CONTENTS……………………………………………………………………x LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………...xiii LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………….xiv CHAPTERS 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 2. RAIL TRANSIT INVESTMENT IN THE WORLD: EXPECTATIONS AND OUTCOMES .......................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. A brief review of transit systems ............................................................................. 4 1.1.1. Rapid Transit Systems ......................................................................................... 4 1.1.2. Rail transit systems .............................................................................................
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